Fujiya Co., Ltd. (2211) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥63.92B
• Dividend Yield: 1.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 26.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.21
• Revenue Growth: 8.17%
• EPS Growth: 10.65%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 2,436
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Food Confectioners
• EPS (TTM): 43.61
• Shares Outstanding: 25,784,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 30,190
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 26,903
• PEG Ratio: 1.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.54
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥2,475.00 ▼(-2.02% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by persistent negative free cash flow and thin margins, which reduce financial flexibility (especially with higher debt). Technicals add pressure with a broadly bearish trend, while valuation is also a headwind due to a high P/E and modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Steady Revenue Growth

Consistent top-line growth from 2023–2025 (2025 +5.3%) indicates durable consumer demand for Fujiya’s products. Sustained revenue expansion supports scale benefits across manufacturing and distribution and underpins longer-term cash generation potential if margins recover.

Branded, Multi‑channel Business

Fujiya operates a recognizable confectionery brand and sells through wholesale, company retail outlets and restaurants. This channel diversity and brand equity support customer loyalty, reduce single-channel dependence and provide structural resilience vs. pure-play competitors.

Sizable Equity Cushion

A sizable equity base relative to debt (D/E ~0.28) provides a material capital cushion. That balance-sheet strength improves the company's ability to withstand cyclical swings, access financing on reasonable terms, and fund strategic investments despite recent debt increases.

Negative Factors

Persistent Negative Free Cash Flow

Multi‑year negative free cash flow (2022–2025, ~-¥5.9B in 2025) indicates ongoing cash outflows likely from capex or working capital. This erodes internal funding capacity, increases reliance on the balance sheet or external financing, and limits flexibility for dividends or buybacks.

Thin and Compressed Margins

Very thin operating and net margins leave minimal buffer against input‑cost inflation or pricing pressure. The trend of margin compression versus prior years suggests structural cost or pricing challenges that constrain profit retention and make earnings generation sensitive to modest revenue swings.

Rising Debt Levels

A notable jump in debt in 2025 reduces previously low‑leverage flexibility. Higher nominal debt raises interest and refinancing exposure, which is problematic given weak free cash flow and thin margins, increasing the company’s sensitivity to tighter financing conditions or operational setbacks.

Fujiya Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fujiya Co., Ltd. produces and wholesales confectionery and beverages in Japan. The company offers candies, chocolates, cookies, and other confectionery products, such as Peko Sweets (milky soft candy), Look chocolates, Peko Poko chocolates, Country Ma'am cookies, and Home Pie products; and beverages comprise canned and plastic bottled beverages, as well as chilled beverages, including Nectar and Lemon Squash. It also operates cake stores, which offer strawberry sponge cakes, chocolate cream cakes, Peko cream puffs, and fruit cakes; manages restaurants, etc.; and operates Family Town, an online shop that sells Peko-chan character merchandise, as well as manages Peko-chan licenses. The company was founded in 1910 and is based in Tokyo, Japan. Fujiya Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd.

How the Company Makes Money

Fujiya Co., Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of confectionery products across various categories, including packaged cakes, chocolates, and seasonal treats. The company operates a network of retail stores, which contribute significantly to its sales, alongside distribution through supermarkets and convenience stores. Key revenue streams include direct sales from its own branded outlets, wholesale agreements, and partnerships with other retailers. Additionally, Fujiya benefits from seasonal product launches and promotional campaigns that drive customer engagement and increase sales during holidays and special occasions. Strategic collaborations with other food brands and participation in food exhibitions also enhance its market presence and revenue potential.

Fujiya Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steady revenue growth and manageable leverage support fundamentals, but structurally thin margins and persistent negative free cash flow (2022–2025) materially weaken financial quality and flexibility, especially alongside higher 2025 debt.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2023–2025 (2025 up 5.3%), showing improving demand and decent top-line momentum. Profitability, however, is thin: 2025 net margin is ~1.7% and operating margin is ~2.4%, leaving limited buffer against input-cost or pricing pressure. Margins have also compressed versus 2021–2022 (when gross and operating profitability were materially higher), though earnings have recovered from the 2023 trough.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is supported by a sizable equity base (2025 equity ~¥60.6B vs. debt ~¥16.8B), and leverage remains manageable at ~0.28 debt-to-equity in 2025. That said, debt increased meaningfully in 2025 versus prior years (from ~¥4.7B in 2024), reducing balance-sheet flexibility compared with the very low-leverage profile seen in 2021–2024. Overall asset and equity levels look stable, but the higher debt load is a clear watch item.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive, but cash conversion is modest versus earnings in recent years (2025 operating cash flow of ~¥3.8B vs. net income of ~¥2.0B, and weaker than 2023–2024 operating cash generation). More importantly, free cash flow has been consistently negative from 2022–2025 (2025 ~-¥5.9B), indicating ongoing cash outflows likely tied to elevated investment or working-capital needs. This pattern increases dependence on the balance sheet and makes funding capacity more sensitive to profitability and financing conditions.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	113.49B	119.56B	109.98B	105.53B	100.61B	104.75B
Gross Profit	37.33B	38.78B	36.45B	33.79B	35.06B	50.11B
EBITDA	8.32B	8.49B	7.47B	7.44B	8.64B	8.63B
Net Income	1.66B	2.03B	1.67B	969.00M	3.38B	3.17B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	92.38B	106.37B	90.47B	83.13B	83.71B	75.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.41B	12.32B	8.37B	9.81B	12.38B	16.55B
Total Debt	8.97B	16.79B	4.72B	1.45B	1.50B	1.63B
Total Liabilities	30.04B	40.26B	27.40B	22.49B	24.55B	21.37B
Stockholders Equity	57.41B	60.63B	57.91B	55.94B	54.92B	51.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-5.87B	-2.42B	-2.01B	-2.65B	1.52B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	3.78B	4.26B	6.78B	4.95B	7.48B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-10.86B	-6.91B	-7.97B	-7.74B	-4.65B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	10.87B	1.75B	-1.24B	-1.55B	-1.28B

Fujiya Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2526.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2211, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2526 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2526.65, below the 50-day MA of 2544.05, and above the 200-day MA of 2505.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -18.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2211.

Fujiya Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2201	76 Outperform	¥236.34B	12.43	13.33%	3.47%	4.21%	23.86%
2207	75 Outperform	¥44.53B	14.40	―	1.51%	5.86%	57.87%
2209	75 Outperform	¥33.23B	13.70	―	1.23%	6.74%	29.20%
2208	72 Outperform	¥79.76B	15.26	―	1.55%	5.78%	14.23%
2216	69 Neutral	¥63.43B	17.77	―	4.63%	7.74%	0.96%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
2211	49 Neutral	¥63.92B	32.01	―	1.14%	8.17%	10.65%

Fujiya Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Fujiya Appoints Mikio Iijima as New Chairman and Representative Director

Fujiya Co., Ltd. has revamped its top management structure by appointing Mikio Iijima as Chairman and Representative Director, effective February 10, 2026. The move follows the earlier resignation of the previous Chairman and is intended to shift the company from a single to a dual representative director framework to reinforce governance and leadership capacity.

Iijima, who previously served as Vice Chairman and Director at Fujiya, brings extensive experience from key roles at Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. and Tohato Inc. His concurrent leadership posts in major food companies signal continued integration and alignment within the wider Yamazaki group, potentially strengthening Fujiya’s strategic oversight and operational coordination in the confectionery market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2211) stock is a Buy with a Yen2926.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fujiya Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2211 Stock Forecast page.

Fujiya Lifts FY2025 Earnings and Assets, Keeps Dividend Steady as It Eyes Moderate Growth in 2026

Fujiya Co., Ltd. reported consolidated net sales of ¥119.6 billion for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, an 8.7% increase year on year, with operating profit up 23.6% to ¥2.84 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent rising 21.4% to ¥2.03 billion. Total assets expanded to ¥106.4 billion, though the equity ratio declined to 57.0%, and the company maintained an annual dividend of ¥30 per share, reflecting a lower payout ratio as earnings grew.

Operating cash flow remained positive at ¥3.78 billion, while investing cash flow was negative due to increased outlays, offset by a sharp rise in financing cash flow that lifted year-end cash and cash equivalents to ¥10.86 billion. For fiscal 2026, Fujiya forecasts moderate sales growth to ¥125.0 billion but more modest profit expansion, signaling a steadier earnings trajectory after strong 2025 gains and suggesting a focus on sustaining shareholder returns through an unchanged dividend policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2211) stock is a Buy with a Yen2926.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fujiya Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2211 Stock Forecast page.

Fujiya Chairman Kensuke Yamada Resigns, Leaving Single Representative Director

Fujiya Co., Ltd. announced that Representative Director and Chairman Kensuke Yamada has resigned from his roles as Representative Director, Chairman, and Director, effective December 29, 2025, citing personal reasons. Following his departure, the number of representative directors will be reduced from two to one, consolidating representative authority under President and Representative Director Nobuyuki Kawamura, which marks a notable change in the company’s top leadership structure and could influence its decision-making and governance dynamics going forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2211) stock is a Buy with a Yen2926.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fujiya Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:2211 Stock Forecast page.