St Joe Company (JOE)
NYSE:JOE
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St Joe Company
(NYSE:JOE)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$72.00
▲(10.65% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/13/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, improved cash generation, and a cleaner balance sheet) and a generally positive earnings outlook featuring record recurring revenue and strategic pipeline expansion. This is meaningfully offset by weak near-term technical momentum and an expensive valuation (high P/E with a modest dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Zero reported total debt in the trailing twelve months materially increases financial flexibility, reduces interest burden, and expands capacity to fund capex, dividends, buybacks or absorb cyclical revenue swings. That balance-sheet optionality supports multi-year strategic execution.
Negative Factors
JV Earnings Sensitivity
A ~66% drop in JV equity income underscores material earnings exposure to partner-driven home closing volumes. Reliance on unconsolidated ventures can produce sizable, lumpy swings in net income and EPS that are outside St. Joe’s direct operating control and can persist across cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Zero reported total debt in the trailing twelve months materially increases financial flexibility, reduces interest burden, and expands capacity to fund capex, dividends, buybacks or absorb cyclical revenue swings. That balance-sheet optionality supports multi-year strategic execution.
Read all positive factors
St Joe Company (JOE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.73B
Dividend Yield0.98%
Average Volume (3M)217.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)64.8
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth26.63%
EPS Growth45.48%
CountryUS
Employees863
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.94
Shares Outstanding57,409,744
10 Day Avg. Volume292,709
30 Day Avg. Volume217,238
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)4.47
Price to Sales (P/S)6.67
P/FCF Ratio18.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.82
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
St Joe Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in Northwest Florida. It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial. The Residential...
How the Company Makes Money
St. Joe makes money primarily by monetizing its real estate assets and operating income-producing properties tied to its development footprint. Key revenue streams include: (1) Residential real estate monetization: revenue from selling homesites a...
St Joe Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and strategic picture: revenue and operating income increased, hospitality and recurring revenue reached records, and margins improved materially. Management executed notable strategic moves (large builder agreement, infrastructure deal), maintained disciplined capital allocation (capex, dividends, buybacks, debt reduction), and is actively pursuing commercial opportunities. The primary negatives were a sizable drop in net income driven by a large decline in equity income from a joint venture (volume-driven and described as cyclical) and timing/permitting lags that postpone some future revenue. Overall, the positives around recurring revenue growth, margin expansion, strategic partnerships, and capital actions outweigh the near-term earnings volatility and timing risks.Positive Updates
Revenue and Operating Income Growth
Total revenue increased 5% year-over-year to $99.1 million (the highest first-quarter revenue outside a one-time 2014 timberland sale), and operating income increased 8% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Net Income Decline
Net income decreased 21% year-over-year in the quarter, driven primarily by lower equity income from unconsolidated joint ventures.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Operating Income Growth
Total revenue increased 5% year-over-year to $99.1 million (the highest first-quarter revenue outside a one-time 2014 timberland sale), and operating income increased 8% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s forward-looking guidance emphasized a measured, market‑driven growth cadence — with Pigeon Creek homesite closings expected in early 2027 and a PulteGroup DSAP agreement for up to 2,653 homesites — while reiterating the push to grow recurring revenue and profitability; Q1 operating metrics cited $99.1M revenue (+5% YoY) and +8% operating income, hospitality revenue of $44.7M (+13% YoY) and leasing revenue of $14.7M (together ~60% of total), hospitality gross margin up to 24% from 18% and leasing gross margin to 61% from 55%, equity in income of $3.5M vs $10.2M prior year, and the quarter’s capital allocation included $20.7M of capex, $9.2M of cash dividends, $5.0M of share repurchases and $10.9M of project debt reduction; management said the hospitality season looks promising (RevPAR uptick and higher advanced deposits), will continue to evaluate ground‑lease vs. sale structures (e.g., for data centers), and will pace development to align with market demand.St Joe Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 518.10M | 513.32M | 402.74M | 389.29M | 252.30M | 267.00M |
| Gross Profit | 479.85M | 477.51M | 167.22M | 153.31M | 106.42M | 135.68M |
| EBITDA | 209.69M | 279.59M | 141.97M | 169.46M | 84.36M | 132.79M |
| Net Income | 112.10M | 115.63M | 74.19M | 77.71M | 70.93M | 74.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.52B | 1.52B | 1.54B | 1.52B | 1.43B | 1.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 136.28M | 129.60M | 88.80M | 86.07M | 78.32M | 159.12M |
| Total Debt | 561.97M | 393.92M | 675.42M | 632.89M | 569.36M | 406.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 743.35M | 742.80M | 801.84M | 825.04M | 779.73M | 582.05M |
| Stockholders Equity | 765.87M | 766.29M | 724.28M | 683.06M | 630.80M | 607.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 199.03M | 186.64M | 58.06M | -36.12M | -210.94M | -41.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 203.92M | 190.70M | 107.99M | 103.85M | 48.22M | 111.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.58M | -26.22M | -50.38M | -99.14M | -189.78M | -196.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -133.04M | -124.28M | -52.07M | 40.76M | 112.46M | 48.57M |
St Joe Company Technical Analysis
Positive
65.07
Price Trends
66.24
Negative
66.37
Negative
59.89
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.86
Positive
47.89
Neutral
28.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JOE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.90, below the 50-day MA of 66.24, and above the 200-day MA of 59.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JOE.
St Joe Company Risk Analysis
St Joe Company disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. St Joe Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
St Joe Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $161.78M | 24.29 | 27.54% | ― | 26.97% | 12.35% | |
70 Outperform | $3.73B | 64.77 | 14.79% | 0.98% | 26.63% | 45.48% | |
70 Outperform | $3.43B | 24.53 | 5.43% | 8.30% | -0.51% | -8.63% | |
66 Neutral | $3.79B | 113.10 | 3.25% | ― | -17.29% | -60.87% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | $6.12B | -64.65 | 15.36% | 12.79% | -42.41% | -82.14% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
JOE
St Joe Company
64.97
22.08
51.48%
CHCI
Comstock Homebuilding Companies
15.77
6.16
64.10%
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings
64.03
-2.41
-3.63%
RYN
Rayonier
20.23
-0.70
-3.36%
APLE
Apple Hospitality REIT
14.54
3.84
35.86%
St Joe Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
St. Joe Highlights Growth Strategy and Capital Allocation Focus
Positive
May 12, 2026
At its May 13, 2025 annual shareholders meeting, the St. Joe Company highlighted a strategy centered on expanding recurring income from commercial and hospitality assets, scaling residential communities, and balancing capital between growth capex,...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
St Joe Company Expands Stock Repurchase Authorization Program
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, the Board of Directors of The St. Joe Company expanded its existing stock repurchase program, which previously had about $49.2 million in remaining capacity for buying back common shares. The board authorized an additional $150.8 m...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
St Joe Highlights Strong Q1 Results, Dividend Declaration
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, St. Joe reported that first‑quarter 2026 revenue rose 5% year on year to $99.1 million, the company’s strongest first quarter excluding a 2014 timberland sale, as hospitality revenue jumped 13% to a record $44.7 mill...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
St. Joe Company Delivers Strong 2025 Earnings Growth
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
The St. Joe Company reported strong results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 on February 25, 2026, with quarterly net income up 58% year on year to $29.9 million and revenue rising 24% to $128.9 million, driven by a 47% jump in real estat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.