St Joe Company (JOE)
NYSE:JOE
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St Joe Company
(NYSE:JOE)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$78.00
▲(19.87% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (improving balance sheet, solid profitability, and better cash conversion) and a positive earnings-call outlook with a sizable development runway and ongoing capital returns. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD. Offsetting these positives, valuation is less attractive with a high P/E and low dividend yield, and there are execution/timing risks plus historical volatility in margins and cash flow.
Positive Factors
Large Development Runway
A 10-DSAP entitlement base and ~23,900 homesite pipeline provide multi-year organic development capacity. This structural runway supports sustained lot monetizations, phased infrastructure spend and the ability to scale community amenities and commercial leasing over time, reducing reliance on one-off land sales.
Negative Factors
Execution & Timing Risk
Meaningful portion of future revenue hinges on timing and successful execution of multiple large projects. Delays or execution issues on DSAPs, Pigeon Creek or state corridor development could shift cash flows, increase carrying costs and defer expected returns over multiple years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large Development Runway
A 10-DSAP entitlement base and ~23,900 homesite pipeline provide multi-year organic development capacity. This structural runway supports sustained lot monetizations, phased infrastructure spend and the ability to scale community amenities and commercial leasing over time, reducing reliance on one-off land sales.
Read all positive factors
St Joe Company (JOE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.97B
Dividend Yield0.98%
Average Volume (3M)217.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.6
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth27.44%
EPS Growth56.99%
CountryUS
Employees863
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding57,541,760
10 Day Avg. Volume292,709
30 Day Avg. Volume217,238
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)4.47
Price to Sales (P/S)6.67
P/FCF Ratio18.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.20
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
St Joe Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in Northwest Florida. It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial. The Residential...
How the Company Makes Money
St. Joe makes money primarily by monetizing its real estate assets and operating income-producing properties tied to its development footprint. Key revenue streams include: (1) Residential real estate monetization: revenue from selling homesites a...
St Joe Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented multiple strong positive trends: double-digit top-line and earnings growth, margin improvements in key operating segments, an enlarged homesite pipeline and entitlements, substantial share repurchases and reduced share count, and a conservative balance sheet with low LTV. Lowlights are present but generally limited to execution/timing risks on future developments, modest hospitality margin pressure tied to one-time opening costs, and investor concerns about lot pricing relative to nearby comps (which management says is mitigated by back-end participation structures). On balance, the positive operational and financial momentum and large development runway outweigh the noted challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Earnings Growth
Q4 revenue grew 24% year-over-year and Q4 net income increased 58% year-over-year. For fiscal 2025, revenue rose 27% to $513.2 million (from $402.7M) and net income increased 56% to $115.6 million (from $74.2M). EPS increased to $2.00 from $1.27 (~+57.5%). Company surpassed $500M in revenue (first time in ~20 years excluding a 2014 one-time sale) and hit $2.00 per share for the first time in ~23 years.
Negative Updates
Hospitality Margin Pressure and Opening Costs
Hospitality gross margin slipped to 31% from 32% primarily due to opening expenses for a new golf course (The Third) and renovation of the Shark's Tooth Clubhouse. Although improved materially versus 2023 (20%), hospitality margins remain the weakest segment.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Earnings Growth
Q4 revenue grew 24% year-over-year and Q4 net income increased 58% year-over-year. For fiscal 2025, revenue rose 27% to $513.2 million (from $402.7M) and net income increased 56% to $115.6 million (from $74.2M). EPS increased to $2.00 from $1.27 (~+57.5%). Company surpassed $500M in revenue (first time in ~20 years excluding a 2014 one-time sale) and hit $2.00 per share for the first time in ~23 years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance for 2026 is measured growth focused on development and recurring revenue: they plan to break ground on 2 more DSAPs (company has 10 DSAPs approved at ≥1,000 acres each, only 3 started), begin infrastructure at Pier Park East, break ground on ~54,000 sq ft of new commercial space (in addition to ~94,500 sq ft now under construction, ~76% preleased), and build a new apartment complex near the FSU Health campus; the residential pipeline stands at ~23,900 homesites (up ~2,200 YoY) and Pigeon Creek could yield >3,000 units. Capital allocation remains multifaceted—2025 was 47% capex (Q4 capex $18.5M), 33% dividends/repurchases (Q4 repurchases $15.1M; 2025 repurchased 798,622 shares at an average $50.10; $653.6M repurchased since 2015 for 34.9M shares, reducing outstanding below 58M) and 20% project debt reduction (Q4 debt paydown $8M); balance sheet metrics include LTV on income-producing assets <25% and cost of debt in the low single digits. Management reiterated aims to grow recurring revenue (now 56% vs 15% historically) and improve hotel occupancy/margins while continuing monetizations to drive EPS after FY2025 results of revenue $513.2M (+27% YoY), net income $115.6M (+56%), and EPS $2.00 (vs $1.27).St Joe Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 518.10M | 513.32M | 402.74M | 389.29M | 252.30M | 267.00M |
| Gross Profit | 479.85M | 477.51M | 167.22M | 153.31M | 106.42M | 135.68M |
| EBITDA | 209.69M | 279.59M | 141.97M | 169.46M | 84.36M | 132.79M |
| Net Income | 112.10M | 115.63M | 74.19M | 77.71M | 70.93M | 74.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.52B | 1.52B | 1.54B | 1.52B | 1.43B | 1.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 136.28M | 129.60M | 88.80M | 86.07M | 78.32M | 159.12M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 393.92M | 675.42M | 632.89M | 569.36M | 406.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 743.35M | 742.80M | 801.84M | 825.04M | 779.73M | 582.05M |
| Stockholders Equity | 765.87M | 766.29M | 724.28M | 683.06M | 630.80M | 607.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 201.03M | 186.64M | 58.06M | -36.12M | -210.94M | -41.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 203.92M | 190.70M | 107.99M | 103.85M | 48.22M | 111.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.58M | -26.22M | -50.38M | -99.14M | -189.78M | -196.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -133.04M | -124.28M | -52.07M | 40.76M | 112.46M | 48.57M |
St Joe Company Technical Analysis
Positive
65.07
Price Trends
67.97
Positive
65.05
Positive
58.02
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Negative
57.25
Neutral
69.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JOE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.91, below the 50-day MA of 67.97, and above the 200-day MA of 58.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JOE.
St Joe Company Risk Analysis
St Joe Company disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. St Joe Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
St Joe Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $161.23M | 6.86 | 28.97% | ― | 22.55% | 14.87% | |
77 Outperform | $3.97B | 29.60 | 15.45% | 0.98% | 27.44% | 56.99% | |
67 Neutral | $3.18B | 23.79 | 5.50% | 8.30% | -1.33% | -16.76% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $6.45B | 32.50 | 21.80% | 12.79% | -61.64% | -81.29% | |
58 Neutral | $3.71B | 195.53 | 3.55% | ― | -18.03% | -46.58% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
JOE
St Joe Company
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27.17
64.91%
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St Joe Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
St Joe Highlights Strong Q1 Results, Dividend Declaration
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, St. Joe reported that first‑quarter 2026 revenue rose 5% year on year to $99.1 million, the company’s strongest first quarter excluding a 2014 timberland sale, as hospitality revenue jumped 13% to a record $44.7 mill...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
St. Joe Company Delivers Strong 2025 Earnings Growth
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
The St. Joe Company reported strong results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 on February 25, 2026, with quarterly net income up 58% year on year to $29.9 million and revenue rising 24% to $128.9 million, driven by a 47% jump in real estat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.