John Marshall Bancorp (JMSB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $280.22M
• Dividend Yield: 1.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 17.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 2.59%
• EPS Growth: 18.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 136
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 14,213,556
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,943
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 17,556
• PEG Ratio: 0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.04
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.23
• 1Y Price Target: $23.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $70.90M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(5.21% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (accelerating revenue growth, higher earnings, and better margins) and a solid, moderately levered balance sheet, tempered by below-peak returns and some historical cash-flow volatility. Technical indicators are neutral-to-soft, while valuation is reasonable and the dividend program enhancement provides an additional positive tailwind.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth acceleration

Sustained revenue acceleration (13.7% in 2025) reflects stronger loan and fee activity and broader market traction. Durable top-line momentum supports ongoing loan originations, fee income and scale benefits, underpinning earnings potential over the next several quarters.

Conservative balance sheet / moderate leverage

Moderate leverage and rising equity provide capital flexibility to absorb credit losses, fund growth, and maintain regulatory cushions. A conservatively positioned balance sheet supports stable lending capacity and lower solvency risk across economic cycles.

Shareholder-friendly dividend policy shift

Transitioning from annual to quarterly dividends and raising the annualized payout signals management confidence in recurring cash generation and capital adequacy. This structural policy improves shareholder returns predictability and signals durable capital allocation priorities.

Negative Factors

Below-peak return on equity

ROE still materially below prior peak indicates the bank has not recovered historical capital efficiency. Lower long-term returns constrain shareholder value creation and suggest either compressions in margin, less leverage-optimal capital deployment, or slower asset repricing.

Historical cash-flow volatility

Volatile operating and free cash flows reduce predictability of dividends, lending capacity and reserve building. Repeated swings (notably 2023 declines) raise the risk that future stress periods could force tighter capital management or reduced shareholder distributions.

Earnings sensitivity to cyclical conditions

Profitability is sensitive to net interest margins, loan mix and credit performance, leading to cyclical earnings swings. As a regional community bank, JMSB faces concentrated exposure to local economic cycles that can cause sustained earnings variability.

John Marshall Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for John Marshall Bank that provides banking products and financial services. The company accepts checking, demand, NOW, savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It offers commercial, construction and development, commercial term, mortgage, commercial real estate, industrial other commercial lines of credit; debit and credit cards; and treasury and cash management, investment, business and personal insurance, remote deposit capture, deposit sweep and online and mobile banking services. The company serves small to medium-sized businesses, their owners and employees, professional corporations, non-profits, and individuals. It operates eight full-service branches in Alexandria, Reston, Arlington, Washington, Loudoun, Prince William, Rockville, and Tysons, as well as a loan production office in Arlington, Virginia. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

JMSB makes money primarily through the operations of John Marshall Bank. The core earnings engine is net interest income: the bank collects interest on interest-earning assets (primarily loans such as commercial real estate and other business-related lending) and pays interest on its funding sources (primarily customer deposits and, as applicable, other borrowings). The spread between interest earned and interest paid (net interest margin) is a key driver of profitability and is influenced by loan growth, asset mix, credit performance, deposit mix (noninterest-bearing vs. interest-bearing), and changes in market interest rates. A second revenue stream is noninterest income generated from fees for banking services. These typically include service charges and fees tied to deposit accounts and transaction activity, treasury/cash-management services, and other bank service fees; any additional categories beyond these are null. The company’s overall earnings are reduced by provision for credit losses (reflecting expected loan losses), operating expenses (personnel, occupancy, technology, and compliance), and taxes. Significant partnerships specifically contributing to earnings are null.

John Marshall Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are improving: revenue growth accelerated in 2025 and net income rose with margins expanding. The balance sheet appears conservatively positioned with moderate leverage and rising equity, but ROE remains below prior peak years and cash flow has been somewhat volatile despite a 2025 rebound.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded steadily over the period, with 2025 accelerating to 13.7% growth versus 2024. Profitability also improved meaningfully from the 2023 trough: net income rose to $21.2M in 2025 from $17.1M in 2024, and net margin improved to ~18.4% from ~15.2%. Key watch-out: profitability remains below the unusually strong 2021–2022 levels (when margins were materially higher), highlighting some earnings sensitivity across cycles.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate for the period, with debt-to-equity around ~0.34 in 2025 (similar to 2024) and equity growing to ~$265.6M. Returns on equity improved to ~8.0% in 2025 from ~6.9% in 2024, but are still well below the ~12–15% levels seen in 2021–2022, suggesting the balance sheet is sound but current profitability is not yet back to peak efficiency.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and improved in 2025, with operating cash flow of ~$22.6M (up from ~$17.3M in 2024) and free cash flow matching net income (free cash flow to net income at 1.0). However, cash flow has shown volatility over time (including a notable decline in free cash flow in 2023 and a slight decline in 2024), which tempers the quality-of-cash-flow assessment despite the 2025 rebound.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	115.33M	112.40M	85.83M	85.76M	75.84M
Gross Profit	60.95M	53.69M	38.80M	71.94M	64.52M
EBITDA	27.38M	23.56M	9.70M	41.98M	34.49M
Net Income	21.23M	17.12M	5.16M	31.80M	25.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.33B	2.23B	2.24B	2.35B	2.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	135.71M	143.27M	269.00M	419.18M	345.10M
Total Debt	90.51M	86.16M	39.15M	54.98M	47.91M
Total Liabilities	2.07B	1.99B	2.01B	2.14B	1.94B
Stockholders Equity	265.64M	246.61M	229.91M	212.80M	208.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.03M	16.78M	17.39M	33.00M	32.00M
Operating Cash Flow	22.58M	17.26M	18.00M	33.16M	32.35M
Investing Cash Flow	-88.68M	30.96M	144.84M	-270.87M	-303.00M
Financing Cash Flow	73.60M	-24.76M	-125.43M	193.52M	237.99M

John Marshall Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.96
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JMSB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.73, below the 50-day MA of 20.00, and above the 200-day MA of 19.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JMSB.

John Marshall Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COSO	72 Outperform	$312.25M	10.09	10.81%	―	―	―
FINW	72 Outperform	$215.22M	14.84	8.00%	―	26.54%	2.73%
NECB	71 Outperform	$319.01M	6.75	13.07%	4.11%	-0.72%	-7.24%
CZFS	71 Outperform	$284.78M	7.48	11.36%	3.38%	2.16%	24.43%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
JMSB	66 Neutral	$280.22M	11.95	7.97%	1.48%	2.59%	18.83%
AVBH	57 Neutral	$295.34M	8.35	-8.68%	―	-38.93%	-187.52%

John Marshall Bancorp Corporate Events

John Marshall Bancorp Initiates Enhanced Quarterly Dividend Program

On January 27, 2026, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.’s board of directors declared its first quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share of common stock, payable on March 4, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 11, 2026, with an aggregate payout of approximately $1.3 million based on current shares outstanding. The move, announced publicly on January 28, 2026, transitions the company from an annual to a quarterly dividend program and represents a 20% increase on an annualized basis over the 2025 dividend, signaling the board’s confidence in the bank’s financial performance and its intent to deliver enhanced, more frequent returns to shareholders while noting that any future dividends will remain at the board’s discretion and dependent on financial and regulatory conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JMSB) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on John Marshall Bancorp stock, see the JMSB Stock Forecast page.