John Marshall Bancorp (JMSB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $292.58M
• Dividend Yield: 1.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 17.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 2.59%
• EPS Growth: 18.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 136
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 14,175,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,943
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 17,556
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.54
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.07
• 1Y Price Target: $23.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $22.50 ▲(13.46% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (strong TTM revenue growth and better margins) but tempered by historical volatility, moderate ROE, and data consistency concerns. Technicals are mildly supportive with price above major moving averages, valuation appears reasonable on P/E with a modest yield, and the new quarterly dividend program adds a positive shareholder-return catalyst.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth indicates robust business expansion and effective market penetration, supporting long-term financial stability.

Profit Margins

Strong profit margins reflect efficient cost management and pricing power, contributing to sustainable profitability and competitive advantage.

Balance Sheet Health

A low debt-to-equity ratio indicates prudent financial management and provides flexibility for future growth opportunities.

Negative Factors

Declining ROE

A declining ROE could signal challenges in generating returns on shareholder investments, potentially impacting investor confidence and long-term growth.

Negative Free Cash Flow Growth

Negative free cash flow growth may limit the company's ability to invest in new opportunities or repay debt, affecting future financial flexibility.

Operational Cost Pressures

Increasing operational costs can erode profitability and competitiveness, necessitating strategic cost management to maintain margins.

John Marshall Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for John Marshall Bank that provides banking products and financial services. The company accepts checking, demand, NOW, savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It offers commercial, construction and development, commercial term, mortgage, commercial real estate, industrial other commercial lines of credit; debit and credit cards; and treasury and cash management, investment, business and personal insurance, remote deposit capture, deposit sweep and online and mobile banking services. The company serves small to medium-sized businesses, their owners and employees, professional corporations, non-profits, and individuals. It operates eight full-service branches in Alexandria, Reston, Arlington, Washington, Loudoun, Prince William, Rockville, and Tysons, as well as a loan production office in Arlington, Virginia. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

John Marshall Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and mortgages, fees from banking services, and investment income. The key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and consumer loans, which constitutes a significant portion of their income, as well as service charges on deposit accounts and transaction fees. Additionally, JMSB benefits from wealth management and advisory services, contributing to its diversified revenue base. Significant partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance its market presence and customer base, further supporting its earnings.

John Marshall Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TTM results show a clear rebound with strong revenue growth (+26.1%) and improved profitability (net margin ~18.4% vs ~15.2% in 2024). However, multi-year earnings and cash-flow trends have been choppy, returns are only moderate (TTM ROE ~8.6%), and there are data consistency flags (e.g., total assets inconsistency) that reduce confidence.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth is strong (+26.1%) with improved profitability versus 2024 (net margin ~18.4% vs ~15.2%; EBIT margin ~23.7% vs ~19.5%). However, earnings power has been volatile over the cycle: profitability in 2023 was meaningfully weaker (net margin ~6.0%) and earlier years (2020–2022) show unusually high margins (including 100% gross margin in several periods), suggesting results can swing materially depending on the rate/credit environment and/or classification effects in the data.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears moderate in the latest periods with debt-to-equity around ~0.34–0.35 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and 2024, supporting balance-sheet flexibility. Return on equity has improved to ~8.6% in TTM from ~6.9% in 2024, but remains below the stronger 2021–2022 range, indicating only middling capital efficiency currently. Also, total assets are inconsistent across periods (TTM shows $280M vs ~$2.23B in 2024), which adds uncertainty to trend interpretation.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid relative to reported earnings, with free cash flow running close to net income (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow to net income ~0.96; 2024 ~0.97). TTM free cash flow growth is positive (+5.8%), but growth was slightly negative in 2024 and sharply negative in 2023, pointing to uneven cash flow momentum. Operating cash flow relative to the company’s debt load is low in the latest periods (coverage ratios shown in the data are very small in TTM/2024/2023), which implies less balance-sheet deleveraging capacity from current operating cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	114.03M	112.40M	85.83M	85.76M	75.84M	74.06M
Gross Profit	59.28M	53.69M	38.80M	71.94M	64.52M	52.23M
EBITDA	27.35M	23.56M	9.70M	41.98M	34.49M	25.69M
Net Income	20.09M	17.12M	5.16M	31.80M	25.46M	18.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	280.00M	2.23B	2.24B	2.35B	2.15B	1.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	83.00M	143.27M	269.00M	419.18M	345.10M	290.36M
Total Debt	90.74M	86.16M	39.15M	54.98M	47.91M	52.89M
Total Liabilities	2.06B	1.99B	2.01B	2.14B	1.94B	1.70B
Stockholders Equity	220.00M	246.61M	229.91M	212.80M	208.47M	186.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	20.42M	16.78M	17.39M	33.00M	32.00M	23.84M
Operating Cash Flow	21.21M	17.26M	18.00M	33.16M	32.35M	24.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-61.98M	30.96M	144.84M	-270.87M	-303.00M	-261.85M
Financing Cash Flow	27.19M	-24.76M	-125.43M	193.52M	237.99M	281.39M

John Marshall Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JMSB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.02, below the 50-day MA of 20.14, and above the 200-day MA of 18.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JMSB.

John Marshall Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NECB	71 Outperform	$331.04M	7.26	13.26%	4.11%	-0.72%	-7.24%
CZFS	71 Outperform	$304.00M	8.30	10.88%	3.38%	2.16%	24.43%
JMSB	70 Outperform	$292.58M	13.85	7.97%	1.48%	2.59%	18.83%
FINW	68 Neutral	$237.91M	15.48	8.00%	―	26.54%	2.73%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
COSO	63 Neutral	$323.81M	11.08	12.63%	―	―	―
AVBH	60 Neutral	$318.67M	-14.52	-8.68%	―	-38.93%	-187.52%

John Marshall Bancorp Corporate Events

John Marshall Bancorp Initiates Enhanced Quarterly Dividend Program

On January 27, 2026, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.’s board of directors declared its first quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share of common stock, payable on March 4, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 11, 2026, with an aggregate payout of approximately $1.3 million based on current shares outstanding. The move, announced publicly on January 28, 2026, transitions the company from an annual to a quarterly dividend program and represents a 20% increase on an annualized basis over the 2025 dividend, signaling the board’s confidence in the bank’s financial performance and its intent to deliver enhanced, more frequent returns to shareholders while noting that any future dividends will remain at the board’s discretion and dependent on financial and regulatory conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JMSB) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on John Marshall Bancorp stock, see the JMSB Stock Forecast page.