John Marshall Bancorp (JMSB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $278.13M
• Dividend Yield: 1.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 17.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 2.59%
• EPS Growth: 18.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 136
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 14,204,877
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,943
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 17,556
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.54
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.71
• 1Y Price Target: $23.00
• Price Target Upside: 17.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $70.90M

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.50 ▲(14.91% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/02/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/02/26

The score is driven primarily by improved TTM financial performance and a constructive technical trend (price above key moving averages with neutral-positive momentum). These positives are moderated by multi-year volatility and contraction in free cash flow, while valuation appears reasonable and the new quarterly dividend program is a supportive incremental positive.

Positive Factors

Revenue rebound & margin improvement

Sustained TTM revenue growth and materially higher net margin reflect expanding loan volumes and pricing power. Over a 2–6 month horizon, stronger top-line and margin recovery underpin durable earnings capacity, supporting reinvestment, credit extension and shareholder returns if trends persist.

Strong regulatory capital

A CET1 ratio of 15.2% provides a meaningful cushion above regulatory minimums, supporting continued lending and dividend optionality. Robust capital reduces insolvency risk, allows paced balance-sheet growth and underpins long-term confidence with regulators and counterparties.

Enhanced, more frequent dividend policy

Transitioning from annual to quarterly dividends with an increased annualized payout signals management confidence in recurring earnings and cash flow. A formalized cadence can anchor investor expectations and reflects a strategic shift toward sustained shareholder returns if supported by capital and cash generation.

Negative Factors

Volatile, contracting free cash flow

A large, persistent decline in free cash flow undermines the bank's ability to fund loan growth, technology investments and dividends without relying on external financing. Over months this reduces financial flexibility and raises the risk that capital allocation choices may be constrained during stress.

Earnings cyclicality; margins not fully normalized

Sharp swings in margins and ROE indicate sensitivity to rate and credit cycles. This cyclicality reduces predictability of core profitability and complicates planning for sustained dividend and growth; investors must assume earnings may revert with changing macro or funding conditions.

Balance-sheet data inconsistency

Inconsistent asset reporting clouds trend analysis of leverage, liquidity and growth. Over the medium term this impedes accurate assessment of capital adequacy and risk exposure, making it harder to judge whether recent improvements are durable or driven by reporting anomalies.

John Marshall Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for John Marshall Bank that provides banking products and financial services. The company accepts checking, demand, NOW, savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It offers commercial, construction and development, commercial term, mortgage, commercial real estate, industrial other commercial lines of credit; debit and credit cards; and treasury and cash management, investment, business and personal insurance, remote deposit capture, deposit sweep and online and mobile banking services. The company serves small to medium-sized businesses, their owners and employees, professional corporations, non-profits, and individuals. It operates eight full-service branches in Alexandria, Reston, Arlington, Washington, Loudoun, Prince William, Rockville, and Tysons, as well as a loan production office in Arlington, Virginia. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

John Marshall Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and mortgages, fees from banking services, and investment income. The key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and consumer loans, which constitutes a significant portion of their income, as well as service charges on deposit accounts and transaction fees. Additionally, JMSB benefits from wealth management and advisory services, contributing to its diversified revenue base. Significant partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance its market presence and customer base, further supporting its earnings.

John Marshall Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TTM results show a strong rebound with sharply higher revenue and improved net margin, and leverage appears moderate. Offsetting this, profitability and cash-flow metrics have been volatile since 2022, with sharply negative TTM free cash flow growth and weaker cash-flow coverage, reducing confidence in sustainability.

Income Statement

Results show a strong rebound versus 2023, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue up sharply (+48.7%) and profitability improving (TTM net margin ~18.4% vs ~15.2% in 2024 and ~6.0% in 2023). However, earnings power looks less consistent over the full cycle: 2021–2022 margins were unusually high, followed by a steep drop in 2023, which highlights sensitivity to operating conditions and reduces confidence in durability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears moderate with debt-to-equity around ~0.34 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and 2024, supporting balance-sheet flexibility. Returns to shareholders have improved (ROE ~8.6% TTM vs ~6.9% in 2024 and ~2.2% in 2023), but they remain below the stronger 2021–2022 levels, suggesting profitability has not fully normalized. Also, the reported TTM total assets figure is far lower than prior years, indicating potential data inconsistency that adds uncertainty to balance-sheet trend interpretation.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is currently solid relative to earnings (free cash flow is ~96% of net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), consistent with prior years). The main concern is volatility and contraction in cash flow: TTM free cash flow growth is sharply negative (-61%), and free cash flow has declined for multiple years versus the 2021–2022 run-rate. Operating cash flow coverage is also extremely low in TTM and 2023–2024 (despite being exceptionally high in 2021–2022), pointing to a less stable cash profile.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	114.03M	112.40M	85.83M	85.76M	75.84M	74.06M
Gross Profit	59.28M	53.69M	38.80M	71.94M	64.52M	52.23M
EBITDA	27.35M	23.56M	9.70M	41.98M	34.49M	25.69M
Net Income	20.09M	17.12M	5.16M	31.80M	25.46M	18.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	280.00M	2.23B	2.24B	2.35B	2.15B	1.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	83.00M	143.27M	269.00M	419.18M	345.10M	290.36M
Total Debt	90.74M	86.16M	39.15M	54.98M	47.91M	52.89M
Total Liabilities	2.06B	1.99B	2.01B	2.14B	1.94B	1.70B
Stockholders Equity	220.00M	246.61M	229.91M	212.80M	208.47M	186.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	20.42M	16.78M	17.39M	33.00M	32.00M	23.84M
Operating Cash Flow	21.21M	17.26M	18.00M	33.16M	32.35M	24.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-61.98M	30.96M	144.84M	-270.87M	-303.00M	-261.85M
Financing Cash Flow	27.19M	-24.76M	-125.43M	193.52M	237.99M	281.39M

John Marshall Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.58
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JMSB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.33, below the 50-day MA of 20.24, and above the 200-day MA of 19.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JMSB.

John Marshall Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FINW	72 Outperform	$224.46M	15.13	8.00%	―	26.54%	2.73%
NECB	71 Outperform	$329.22M	7.22	13.26%	4.11%	-0.72%	-7.24%
CZFS	71 Outperform	$290.50M	7.93	10.88%	3.38%	2.16%	24.43%
JMSB	68 Neutral	$278.13M	13.14	7.97%	1.48%	2.59%	18.83%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
COSO	63 Neutral	$341.24M	11.72	12.63%	―	―	―
AVBH	58 Neutral	$323.54M	-14.87	-8.68%	―	-38.93%	-187.52%

John Marshall Bancorp Corporate Events

John Marshall Bancorp Initiates Enhanced Quarterly Dividend Program

On January 27, 2026, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.’s board of directors declared its first quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share of common stock, payable on March 4, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 11, 2026, with an aggregate payout of approximately $1.3 million based on current shares outstanding. The move, announced publicly on January 28, 2026, transitions the company from an annual to a quarterly dividend program and represents a 20% increase on an annualized basis over the 2025 dividend, signaling the board’s confidence in the bank’s financial performance and its intent to deliver enhanced, more frequent returns to shareholders while noting that any future dividends will remain at the board’s discretion and dependent on financial and regulatory conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JMSB) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on John Marshall Bancorp stock, see the JMSB Stock Forecast page.