Jefferies (JEF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.00B
• Dividend Yield: 2.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: -5.41%
• EPS Growth: 25.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,701
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 0.85
• Shares Outstanding: 206,548,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,243,768
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,264,600
• PEG Ratio: -3.54
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.13
• 1Y Price Target: $66.80
• Price Target Upside: 72.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.28
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.48B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(0.75% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (sharp downtrend versus all key moving averages with bearish MACD) and uneven fundamentals driven by volatile cash flow and compressed profitability. Offsetting factors include improved leverage, reasonable valuation with a strong dividend yield, and generally positive strategic/funding corporate actions, tempered by ongoing legal/event risk tied to the First Brands situation.

Positive Factors

Deepening SMBC strategic alliance

A closer SMBC partnership creates durable distribution, capital and origination benefits: board representation, planned JV in Japan, and sizeable credit lines and potential share purchases support cross-border deal flow, funding optionality and long-term client expansion.

Material leverage improvement

A dramatic reduction in leverage materially strengthens financial flexibility and reduces refinancing risk, giving Jefferies more capacity to underwrite deals, support trading inventories, and absorb operational losses without immediate capital raises, improving resilience.

Demonstrated capital markets funding access

Successfully placing long-dated senior notes evidences sustained investor appetite and market access, securing stable funding for strategic initiatives and working capital needs. This reduces short-term liquidity pressure and supports growth and underwriting activities over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash generation

Historic swings in operating and free cash flow weaken earnings quality and constrain internal funding for buybacks, dividends, or investments. Persistent volatility increases reliance on external financing and heightens refinancing and liquidity risk across business cycles.

Compressed profitability and earnings volatility

Margin compression and year-to-year swings reflect the cyclical capital markets model and reduce predictability of core earnings. Lower durable profitability limits retained earnings growth and can pressure returns on equity and capital allocation decisions during weaker markets.

Legal and reputational overhang from First Brands dispute

Ongoing litigation and fallout from the First Brands episode create potential for legal costs, reserve build, regulatory scrutiny and reputational damage. Even if manageable, uncertainty can divert management focus and constrain risk-taking or deal-making until resolved.

Jefferies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. engages in the investment banking and capital markets, and asset management businesses in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The company operates in Investment Banking and Capital Markets, Asset Management, Merchant Banking, and Corporate segments. It provides investment banking, advisory services with respect to mergers or acquisitions, restructurings or recapitalizations and private capital advisory transactions; equity and debt underwriting; and corporate lending. In addition, the company offers financing, securities lending, and other prime brokerage services; equities research and finance; and wealth management services. Further, it provides clients with sales and trading of investment grade corporate bonds, U.S. and European government and agency securities, municipal bonds, mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities, leveraged loans, consumer loans, high yield and distressed securities, emerging markets debt, interest rate, and credit derivative products, as well as foreign exchange trade execution and securitization; and manages, invests in, and provides services to a diverse group of alternative asset management platforms across a spectrum of investment strategies and asset classes. The company was formerly known as Leucadia National Corporation and changed its name to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. in May 2018. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Jefferies generates revenue through multiple key streams. The Investment Banking segment is a significant contributor, earning fees from advisory services on mergers and acquisitions, underwriting securities, and raising capital for clients. The Equities and Fixed Income segments earn commissions and trading revenues from executing trades for institutional clients. Additionally, the Asset Management division generates management fees and performance-based fees from managing investment funds. Jefferies has established significant partnerships with various financial institutions and corporations, enhancing its market presence and access to clients, which in turn bolsters its overall earnings.

Jefferies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid revenue momentum and a materially improved leverage profile in 2025 support the score, but profitability compressed in the latest year and cash flow has been highly volatile (negative operating/free cash flow in 2023–2024 before a modestly positive 2025), reducing visibility on earnings quality and durability.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over the last two years (2024 and 2025), but profitability has weakened in the most recent year. Net margin fell to ~5.8% in 2025 from ~7.1% in 2024, and operating profitability also compressed sharply versus prior years, pointing to a more volatile earnings profile typical of capital markets. Positives include consistently positive net income across all years shown and solid gross profitability, but the sharp swing in operating results year-to-year reduces confidence in durability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved dramatically in 2025, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.17 from ~2.00 in 2024, materially strengthening financial flexibility. Equity has been relatively stable to rising over time, and returns on equity have been positive but modest recently (~6% in 2025). The main watch-out is the large year-to-year debt swing, which suggests balance-sheet structure can change meaningfully with the business cycle and funding needs.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area due to significant volatility. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative in 2023 and 2024, before turning modestly positive in 2025. While 2025 free cash flow covered net income (free cash flow roughly equal to net income), the sharp decline in free cash flow versus the prior year and the history of negative cash flow increase risk and reduce visibility on cash earnings quality.

Breakdown	Nov 2025	Nov 2024	Nov 2023	Nov 2022	Nov 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.82B	10.52B	7.44B	7.15B	8.95B
Gross Profit	6.46B	6.22B	4.51B	3.77B	4.62B
EBITDA	1.06B	4.68B	3.21B	2.42B	3.34B
Net Income	710.48M	743.38M	277.69M	785.45M	1.67B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	76.01B	64.36B	57.91B	51.06B	56.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.04B	12.15B	8.53B	9.70B	10.76B
Total Debt	23.76B	20.36B	16.09B	13.72B	11.42B
Total Liabilities	65.37B	54.13B	48.10B	40.76B	45.38B
Stockholders Equity	10.57B	10.16B	9.71B	10.23B	10.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.71B	-459.84M	-1.93B	1.58B	1.42B
Operating Cash Flow	-1.50B	-209.25M	-1.93B	1.80B	1.58B
Investing Cash Flow	-298.81M	210.31M	-12.20M	-60.54M	-409.87M
Financing Cash Flow	3.59B	3.35B	1.06B	-2.84B	994.29M

Jefferies Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 38.71
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JEF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.71, below the 50-day MA of 55.92, and below the 200-day MA of 56.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.62 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JEF.

Jefferies Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PIPR	72 Outperform	$5.17B	20.11	21.69%	1.63%	12.77%	36.43%
MC	71 Outperform	$4.39B	22.13	44.30%	3.69%	51.19%	456.59%
EVR	70 Outperform	$11.42B	16.14	33.81%	0.95%	27.00%	63.47%
SF	69 Neutral	$11.25B	12.55	11.96%	1.43%	7.54%	2.73%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HLI	64 Neutral	$10.21B	24.90	20.14%	1.33%	20.99%	25.02%
JEF	56 Neutral	$8.00B	17.25	6.84%	2.52%	-5.41%	25.28%

Jefferies Corporate Events

Jefferies Disputes Western Alliance Lawsuit, Affirms Financial Strength

Jefferies Financial Group on March 9, 2026, publicly disputed Western Alliance Bank’s characterization of loans tied to First Brands receivables, asserting that Western Alliance’s credit exposure was solely to special purpose entities owned by the Point Bonita master fund. Jefferies emphasized that the disputed loans were non-recourse, carried no guarantees or credit support from Jefferies or its affiliates, and that the governing loan documents expressly barred Western Alliance from seeking recovery from Jefferies or related entities.

The firm said Western Alliance nonetheless entered a forbearance arrangement shortly before First Brands’ September 2025 bankruptcy without securing the guarantees it had requested from Jefferies and Point Bonita, and that Western Alliance had the ability to diligence the receivables and structures throughout the lending period. Jefferies condemned comments by Western Alliance’s CEO implying Jefferies could not repay $126 million as false and damaging, reiterated that it honors all obligations, and maintained that Western Alliance’s lawsuit seeking recovery from Jefferies lacks merit.

Jefferies also acknowledged that the First Brands fraud could lead to financial losses over time but reiterated that any impact remains manageable and does not threaten its financial strength or business momentum. Separately, the firm disclosed that a European subsidiary had extended a £103 million warehouse facility to Market Financial Solutions secured by bridge loans, and that the expected net impact on Jefferies’ net earnings from this exposure is modest and within its risk tolerance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JEF) stock is a Hold with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jefferies stock, see the JEF Stock Forecast page.

Jefferies Adds SMBC Executive to Board, Deepening Alliance

On February 11, 2026, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and Japan’s SMBC Group said SMBC executive Yoshihiro Hyakutome has been nominated to join Jefferies’ board, succeeding SMBC Group CEO Toru Nakashima, who has served as a director since August 2024 and will remain until his term ends. The move places SMBC’s Global Business Unit co-head at the heart of governance as the partners’ global strategic alliance deepens and they prepare a Japan equities joint venture slated to begin operations in January 2027.

In tandem with the board change, SMBC restated its plan, first outlined in September 2025, to lift its economic stake in Jefferies to as much as 20% on an as-converted, fully diluted basis by buying roughly 13 million additional shares in the open market. Despite the higher economic interest, SMBC will keep its voting stake below 5%, underscoring a strategy of tighter financial and operational alignment without formal control as the firms seek to expand joint services to their combined client base.

The most recent analyst rating on (JEF) stock is a Hold with a $66.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jefferies stock, see the JEF Stock Forecast page.

Jefferies Issues $1.5 Billion Senior Notes for Flexibility

On January 13, 2026, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. entered into a purchase agreement with a syndicate of underwriters led by Jefferies LLC and SMBC Nikko Securities America to issue and sell $1.5 billion aggregate principal amount of 5.500% senior notes due 2036, with the transaction closing on January 16, 2026 under an existing indenture with The Bank of New York Mellon as trustee. Jefferies expects to receive approximately $1.48 billion in net proceeds from the offering, which it plans to use for general corporate purposes, bolstering its funding base and providing additional financial flexibility to support ongoing operations and strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (JEF) stock is a Buy with a $97.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jefferies stock, see the JEF Stock Forecast page.

Jefferies Prices $1.5 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On January 13, 2026, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. announced it had priced a public offering of $1.5 billion aggregate principal amount of 5.500% Senior Notes due February 15, 2036, with an effective yield of 5.605%, with settlement expected on January 16, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. The company plans to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, a move that will bolster its funding flexibility and balance sheet resources, while a broad syndicate of banks led by Jefferies LLC as sole global coordinator and joint bookrunner underscores strong capital markets access and sustained investor appetite for the firm’s long-dated debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (JEF) stock is a Buy with a $97.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jefferies stock, see the JEF Stock Forecast page.

Jefferies Highlights Strong 2025 Rebound and SMBC Alliance

In its annual shareholder letter dated January 7, 2026, Jefferies reported that fiscal 2025 was a “tale of two halves,” with a weak first half followed by a markedly stronger second half as macro and regulatory conditions improved, spurring greater strategic activity and capital markets issuance. The firm generated $7.3 billion in net revenues, $0.9 billion in pre-tax income from continuing operations, diluted EPS of $2.85 from continuing operations and a 10.1% return on adjusted tangible shareholders’ equity, with second-half net revenues 28% higher than the first half and investment banking net revenues more than 50% higher, underscoring building momentum. Management highlighted Jefferies’ strengthened standing as a top-tier advisor and underwriter, its long-term growth trajectory and ongoing technology investments, while also acknowledging the material setback from the fraud and bankruptcy of First Brands, which significantly affected Point Bonita, a fund it advises, prompting a renewed focus on controls. The letter also emphasized the deepening strategic alliance with SMBC, including plans for SMBC to lift its stake to up to 20%, provide $2.5 billion in new credit facilities and launch a joint venture in Japanese equities and broader leveraged lending collaboration in EMEA and the U.S., moves that are expected to support Jefferies’ expansion and reinforce its competitive position as it enters 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (JEF) stock is a Buy with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jefferies stock, see the JEF Stock Forecast page.