Ascopiave S.p.A. (ASC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €670.72M
• Dividend Yield: 4.89%
• Average Volume (3M): 112.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: 13.22%
• EPS Growth: 4.89%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 446
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 234,411,580
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 78,424
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 112,159
• PEG Ratio: -0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 44.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €3.65
• Price Target Upside: 18.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: €3.50 ▲(13.64%Upside)

Ascopiave S.p.A. is well-positioned in the regulated gas industry, with strong financial health, consistent revenue growth, and efficient cash flow management. The technical indicators favor an upward trend, supported by a fair valuation and attractive dividend yield. The lack of current earnings call data or notable corporate events ensures that these factors are the primary drivers of the stock's performance.

Positive Factors

Corporate Strategy

The acquisition of A2A’s assets represents a transformational deal for Ascopiave, allowing the company to exceed targets set in its 2027 business plan.

Financial Performance

The company reported double-digit growth at revenue, EBITDA, and net profit level.

Valuation

The current share price implies a significant undervaluation to the asset base of the company.

Negative Factors

Debt Levels

The financial structure of the company at end 2028 would imply a 4.3x net debt/EBITDA ratio, providing room for exploiting further growth opportunities through M&A or the start of the tender process in gas distribution.

Dividend Yield

Limited room for upside on fair RAB multiples and not as much tempting dividend yield.

Market Comparison

Ascopiave trades at a premium, considered fair but not as attractive compared to larger players.

Ascopiave S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ascopiave S.p.A. distributes and sells natural gas in Italy. The company holds concessions and direct assignments for the supply of the service in 268 municipalities; and provides services to approximately 775,000 users through a distribution network of approximately 13,000 kilometres (km). It is also involved in the electricity distribution; heat management and co-generation activities, as well as offers integrated urban water management services in 15 municipalities that includes 100,000 inhabitants through a network of 880 km in the Province of Bergamo; and renewable energy sector with 28 hydroelectric plants and wind turbines. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Pieve di Soligo, Italy. Ascopiave S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Asco Holding S.p.A.

How the Company Makes Money

Ascopiave S.p.A. generates revenue primarily through the distribution and sale of natural gas. The company's main revenue streams include fees for gas distribution services and the sale of natural gas to end consumers. Ascopiave operates extensive gas distribution networks, which enable it to charge distribution fees to both residential and commercial customers. Additionally, the company earns income from selling natural gas directly to consumers. Strategic partnerships with other energy companies and regulatory frameworks in Italy also play a critical role in Ascopiave's revenue generation, as they influence pricing and distribution rights. Furthermore, Ascopiave may engage in other energy-related activities that contribute to its overall earnings, such as energy efficiency services or renewable energy projects, although these are secondary to its core operations.

Ascopiave S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ascopiave S.p.A. exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, solid profitability margins, and efficient cash flow management. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage and a strong equity position, though the return on equity suggests potential for enhancing shareholder returns.

Income Statement

The income statement demonstrates solid profitability with a strong gross profit margin of 77.3% and a net profit margin of 18.2% for the TTM. Revenue growth is healthy at 3.6% from the previous year, indicating stable and consistent revenue expansion. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly declined compared to historical data, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid equity foundation with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 57.9%, showcasing a stable financial structure. Return on equity is relatively low at 4.5% for the TTM, suggesting limited profitability in generating shareholder returns compared to the equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.76, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings. Free cash flow growth rate is impressive, with a significant increase in the TTM compared to the previous year, reflecting improved cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.98, underscoring efficient conversion of profits into cash.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
212.31M	204.96M	180.79M	163.65M	134.91M	163.90M
	Gross Profit
164.08M	148.79M	106.57M	109.81M	104.49M	125.34M
	EBIT
58.19M	51.64M	45.99M	31.91M	33.84M	52.21M
	EBITDA
114.96M	108.09M	100.97M	82.30M	69.87M	66.79M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
38.56M	35.82M	36.18M	32.66M	45.33M	58.70M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
36.76M	35.00M	53.83M	77.74M	43.45M	22.70M
	Total Assets
1.48B	1.45B	1.46B	1.65B	1.37B	1.36B
	Total Debt
406.05M	425.60M	447.77M	464.11M	393.04M	362.69M
	Net Debt
370.13M	391.42M	395.69M	387.19M	350.50M	340.79M
	Total Liabilities
612.87M	594.53M	607.70M	761.21M	502.05M	509.20M
	Stockholders Equity
857.47M	847.97M	844.75M	866.28M	868.54M	853.90M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
76.32M	20.11M	-81.45M	11.62M	-2.28M	-2.27M
	Operating Cash Flow
145.13M	101.18M	6.13M	98.52M	42.16M	42.16M
	Investing Cash Flow
-67.77M	-67.60M	25.84M	-83.28M	-91.78M	-113.03M
	Financing Cash Flow
-58.30M	-51.49M	-80.02M	19.14M	4.49M	25.74M

Ascopiave S.p.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.08
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:ASC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.11, above the 50-day MA of 3.05, and above the 200-day MA of 2.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:ASC.

Ascopiave S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ASC	78 Outperform	€670.72M	17.38	4.51%	4.89%	13.22%	4.89%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.62B	10.39	4.24%	4.63%	4.07%	-13.04%
0N54		€7.33B	8.94	16.17%	4.24%	―	―
0MHD		€4.64B	13.41	13.68%	4.02%	―	―
0MUN		€3.49B	12.36	8.81%	4.37%	―	―
0NQP		€17.55B	13.94	16.18%	5.43%	―	―
I10		€7.02B	12.47	20.21%	5.52%	―	―