Ascopiave S.p.A. (ASC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €743.32M
• Dividend Yield: 4.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 60.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.12
• Revenue Growth: 20.11%
• EPS Growth: 75.92%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 446
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 234,411,580
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 67,552
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 60,640
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.93
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €4.10
• Price Target Upside: 19.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.19
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €280.43M

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: €4.00 ▲(16.62% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/19/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/19/26

The score is driven mainly by improved 2025 financial results and supportive valuation (low P/E with a solid dividend). These positives are offset by weaker near-term technicals (below key moving averages and subdued momentum) and financial-profile risks from higher leverage and uneven cash conversion.

Positive Factors

Regulated gas distribution provides stable revenues

Ascopiave's core regulated distribution business earns tariff-based revenues under concessions, linking returns to the regulated asset base. This regulatory framework generates predictable, contract-like cash flows and lowers earnings cyclicality versus pure commodity retail exposure, supporting long-term planning and capital recovery.

Material 2025 improvement in earnings and cash flow

The significant 2025 jump in revenue, net income and free cash flow demonstrates the group's ability to translate higher top-line into durable cash generation. Elevated FCF in 2025 (covering a large portion of earnings) enhances capacity to fund capex, service debt, and sustain distributions if maintained beyond one year.

Sizeable equity base with improving ROE

A solid equity cushion and rising return on equity indicate improved capital efficiency and resilience to shocks. Large book equity provides balance-sheet flexibility to absorb volatility or pursue investments, while the ROE improvement signals better profit conversion on capital, supporting long-term shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage reduces financial flexibility

The step-up in gross debt and higher debt-to-equity ratio materially tightens financial flexibility, increasing fixed interest commitments and refinancing risk. If earnings revert or growth slows, elevated leverage could limit ability to invest, raise dividends, or pursue M&A without additional funding or deleveraging.

Inconsistent cash conversion across years

Cash flow generation shows large year-to-year swings driven by working-capital and timing effects, undermining predictability of free cash flow. Irregular conversion complicates capital-allocation decisions, heightens short-to-medium term liquidity risk, and makes sustained deleveraging or payout commitments harder to rely upon.

Earnings and margin volatility over time

Historical swings in revenue growth and margins indicate exposure to non-recurring items, regulatory timing or retail/commodity pricing dynamics. Such volatility reduces the predictability of operating performance, complicates forecasting and capital investment decisions, and raises the risk that exceptional years may not persist.

Ascopiave S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ascopiave S.p.A. distributes and sells natural gas in Italy. The company holds concessions and direct assignments for the supply of the service in 268 municipalities; and provides services to approximately 775,000 users through a distribution network of approximately 13,000 kilometres (km). It is also involved in the electricity distribution; heat management and co-generation activities, as well as offers integrated urban water management services in 15 municipalities that includes 100,000 inhabitants through a network of 880 km in the Province of Bergamo; and renewable energy sector with 28 hydroelectric plants and wind turbines. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Pieve di Soligo, Italy. Ascopiave S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Asco Holding S.p.A.

How the Company Makes Money

Ascopiave makes money mainly through two business areas: (1) regulated gas distribution and (2) energy sales (gas and, where applicable, electricity) to end customers. 1) Regulated gas distribution (infrastructure) - Revenue is generated by operating local gas distribution networks under concessions and charging regulated network tariffs for delivering gas to end users. - Earnings in this segment are largely influenced by the regulatory framework that sets allowed revenues/returns, recognizes certain operating and capital costs, and links remuneration to the regulated asset base and service parameters. - Key drivers typically include the size of the distribution network, the number of delivery points served, volumes transported (to the extent reflected in regulation), and the level of approved tariffs and incentives/adjustments. 2) Energy retail / sales (commercialization) - Revenue is generated by selling natural gas (and, where applicable, electricity) to customers, billing for the commodity component and related retail/service components. - Profitability depends on the margin between procurement costs (wholesale purchase of gas/electricity and associated balancing/transport components) and sales prices, as well as customer acquisition/retention, consumption levels, and operating efficiency. - This segment can be more exposed to market price volatility and competitive dynamics than regulated distribution, with results influenced by hedging/procurement strategy, customer mix, and churn. Additional factors - Segment mix matters: regulated distribution tends to provide more stable, regulation-driven cash flows, while retail can be more variable but offers growth potential through customer base expansion and cross-selling. - Information on specific significant partnerships or counterparties contributing materially to earnings is null.

Ascopiave S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong 2025 step-up in revenue (~+74% YoY), net income (~€86.8M vs. ~€35.8M), and free cash flow (~€114.1M). However, higher 2025 leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.67 vs. ~0.50) plus notable year-to-year volatility in margins and cash conversion temper the overall quality and sustainability of results.

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated strongly in 2025 (annual revenue up ~74% vs. ~13% in 2024 and ~10% in 2023), and profitability improved meaningfully with net income rising to ~€86.8M from ~€35.8M in 2024. Margins are also very strong in the latest year (net margin ~35.5%, EBITDA margin ~63%). The main weakness is volatility: 2024 shows unusually high gross margin (~95%) versus other years, and revenue declined in 2021—suggesting earnings and margins can swing year-to-year, which lowers the quality/stability of the trend.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate but rising: debt-to-equity increased to ~0.67 in 2025 from ~0.50 in 2024, alongside higher total debt (~€611.7M vs. ~€425.6M). Equity remains sizable (~€912.4M) and return on equity improved to ~9.5% in 2025 from ~4.2% in 2024, indicating better profitability on the capital base. The key risk is the step-up in debt in 2025, which reduces flexibility if earnings normalize lower.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened in 2025 with operating cash flow of ~€139.9M and free cash flow of ~€114.1M (a sharp rebound from ~€20.1M in 2024 and negative in 2023). Free cash flow also covered a large portion of earnings in 2025 (~82%). However, cash conversion remains inconsistent: operating cash flow covered less than half of net income in 2025 (~0.50) and was extremely weak in 2023, indicating working-capital or timing swings that can make free cash flow less predictable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	244.32M	204.96M	180.79M	163.65M	134.91M
Gross Profit	85.99M	194.91M	106.57M	109.81M	104.49M
EBITDA	154.10M	108.09M	100.97M	82.30M	69.87M
Net Income	86.84M	35.82M	36.18M	32.66M	45.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.83B	1.45B	1.46B	1.65B	1.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	34.65M	35.00M	53.83M	77.74M	43.45M
Total Debt	611.74M	425.60M	447.77M	464.11M	393.04M
Total Liabilities	919.89M	594.53M	607.70M	761.21M	502.05M
Stockholders Equity	912.40M	847.97M	844.75M	866.28M	868.54M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	114.14M	20.11M	-81.45M	11.62M	-2.28M
Operating Cash Flow	139.89M	101.18M	6.13M	98.52M	42.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-295.10M	-67.60M	25.84M	-83.28M	-91.78M
Financing Cash Flow	155.68M	-51.49M	-80.02M	19.14M	4.49M

Ascopiave S.p.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.43
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:ASC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.74, below the 50-day MA of 3.58, and above the 200-day MA of 3.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:ASC.

Ascopiave S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SRG	72 Outperform	€21.39B	11.74	17.62%	5.18%	-8.04%	30.49%
ASC	68 Neutral	€743.32M	8.23	9.91%	4.59%	20.11%	75.92%
IG	67 Neutral	€10.07B	14.38	―	4.05%	-3.34%	8.88%
A2A	64 Neutral	€7.41B	9.65	13.08%	4.37%	8.61%	-22.69%
ACE	64 Neutral	€4.68B	5.79	14.57%	4.33%	-26.96%	25.00%
IRE	61 Neutral	€3.23B	23.79	9.06%	5.06%	10.48%	9.06%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%