Ascopiave S.p.A. (ASC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €676.14M
• Dividend Yield: 4.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 103.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.29
• Revenue Growth: 13.22%
• EPS Growth: 4.89%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 446
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 234,411,580
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 121,903
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 103,863
• PEG Ratio: 2.92
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €3.65
• Price Target Upside: 16.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: €3.50 ▲(12.18%Upside)

Ascopiave S.p.A. receives a strong overall score driven by its excellent financial performance characterized by solid revenue growth and cash flow management. The company's valuation is attractive with a fair P/E ratio and high dividend yield. Technical analysis indicates moderate momentum, reflecting a stable stock performance without significant upward signals.

Positive Factors

Asset Acquisition

The acquisition of the gas distribution concessions from A2A would significantly simplify the financial structure of Ascopiave.

Revenue Growth

The company reported double-digit growth at revenue, EBITDA, and net profit level.

Undervaluation

The current share price implies a significant undervaluation to the asset value of the company.

Negative Factors

Discount on RAB

The current share price implies a discount on RAB of around -15%, which is not reasonable given that the main peer’s share price implies a premium to RAB of around 10%.

Dividend Yield

Limited room for upside on fair RAB multiples and not as much tempting dividend yield.

Market Comparison

Ascopiave trades at a premium, considered fair but not as attractive compared to larger players.

Ascopiave S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ascopiave S.p.A. (ASC) is an Italian company primarily involved in the distribution and sale of natural gas. It operates within the energy sector, providing essential natural gas infrastructure and services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Ascopiave is a key player in the Italian energy market, with a focus on ensuring efficient, safe, and reliable gas distribution across its service areas.

How the Company Makes Money

Ascopiave S.p.A. generates revenue primarily through the distribution and sale of natural gas. The company owns and operates an extensive gas distribution network, earning income by transporting natural gas through its infrastructure to end-users and charging for this service. Additionally, Ascopiave is involved in the sale of natural gas to consumers, where it earns margins on the gas sold. The company may also engage in partnerships or joint ventures that enhance its distribution capabilities or expand its customer base, contributing to its revenue streams. Regulatory frameworks, tariffs, and agreements with local municipalities also play a significant role in determining its earnings.

Ascopiave S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ascopiave S.p.A. exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, solid profitability margins, and efficient cash flow management. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage and a strong equity position, though the return on equity suggests potential for enhancing shareholder returns.

Income Statement

The income statement demonstrates solid profitability with a strong gross profit margin of 77.3% and a net profit margin of 18.2% for the TTM. Revenue growth is healthy at 3.6% from the previous year, indicating stable and consistent revenue expansion. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly declined compared to historical data, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid equity foundation with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 57.9%, showcasing a stable financial structure. Return on equity is relatively low at 4.5% for the TTM, suggesting limited profitability in generating shareholder returns compared to the equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.76, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings. Free cash flow growth rate is impressive, with a significant increase in the TTM compared to the previous year, reflecting improved cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.98, underscoring efficient conversion of profits into cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	204.96M	180.79M	163.65M	134.91M	163.90M
Gross Profit	148.79M	106.57M	109.81M	104.49M	125.34M
EBITDA	108.09M	100.97M	82.30M	69.87M	66.79M
Net Income	35.82M	36.18M	32.66M	45.33M	58.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.45B	1.46B	1.65B	1.37B	1.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	35.00M	53.83M	77.74M	43.45M	22.70M
Total Debt	425.60M	447.77M	464.11M	393.04M	362.69M
Total Liabilities	594.53M	607.70M	761.21M	502.05M	509.20M
Stockholders Equity	847.97M	844.75M	866.28M	868.54M	853.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	20.11M	-81.45M	11.62M	-2.28M	-2.27M
Operating Cash Flow	101.18M	6.13M	98.52M	42.16M	42.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-67.60M	25.84M	-83.28M	-91.78M	-113.03M
Financing Cash Flow	-51.49M	-80.02M	19.14M	4.49M	25.74M

Ascopiave S.p.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:ASC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.06, above the 50-day MA of 3.07, and above the 200-day MA of 2.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:ASC.

Ascopiave S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IG	79 Outperform	€7.19B	12.84	20.21%	5.38%	-3.34%	8.88%
ASC	77 Outperform	€676.14M	17.52	4.51%	4.81%	13.22%	4.89%
SRG	75 Outperform	€16.96B	13.51	16.18%	5.74%	-16.40%	10.90%
ACE	75 Outperform	€4.21B	11.83	13.68%	4.80%	-2.19%	14.21%
Sector *	72 Outperform	€12.93B	47.12	11.98%	4.57%	1.73%	7.18%
A2A	70 Outperform	€6.80B	8.23	16.17%	4.61%	2.73%	6.02%
IRE	70 Neutral	€3.33B	11.79	8.81%	4.94%	9.09%	16.49%