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Samsara (IOT)
NYSE:IOT
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Samsara
(NYSE:IOT)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$40.00
▲(17.10% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial momentum (high margins, rapidly improving profitability, and meaningful positive free cash flow) and constructive earnings-call guidance toward sustained profitability. Technicals are supportive but look overextended, while valuation remains a clear weak point due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Recurring ARR scale
Large, fast-growing ARR base drives durable, predictable subscription revenue and higher customer lifetime value. A $1.9B ARR with strong net new ARR supports upsell motions, visibility into multi-year revenue, and operating leverage as new sales scale versus fixed platform costs.
Improved cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow signals the business has moved from burn to self-funded growth, enhancing financial flexibility. This improves capacity for R&D, sales investment, and balance-sheet strength while reducing refinancing and dilution risks over the medium term.
High and expanding margins
Consistently high gross margins and rising operating margins indicate strong unit economics and scalable software-led delivery. Margin expansion supports conversion of revenue growth into sustainable profitability and frees cash for product development and GTM without sacrificing investment in growth.
Negative Factors
Slowing revenue growth
A notable drop in growth rate at scale can pressure long-term return expectations and necessitates higher execution quality to maintain market share. Slower top-line expansion also raises the importance of margin conversion and retention to sustain absolute profit and cash-flow growth.
Customer concentration
Heavy reliance on large accounts concentrates renewal and upsell risk: a few clients drive the bulk of ARR. This amplifies revenue sensitivity to individual account churn or contraction and increases sales/relationship management costs to protect and diversify the base over time.
Component cost / supply risk
Hardware-dependent product lines expose gross margins to NAND and component price swings. Persistent input-cost inflation or supply volatility could compress margins or force higher hardware pricing, slowing adoption and complicating the stable margin profile required for multi-year planning.
Samsara (IOT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.98B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)9.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth28.96%
EPS Growth84.06%
CountryUS
Employees3,500
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding358,191,770
10 Day Avg. Volume10,761,949
30 Day Avg. Volume9,825,404
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio18.71
Price to Book (P/B)11.32
Price to Sales (P/S)9.94
P/FCF Ratio77.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.54K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.86Price Target Upside25.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)0.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.92B
Samsara Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSamsara Inc. provides solutions that connect physical operations data to its Connected Operations Cloud in the United States and internationally. The company's Connected Operations Cloud includes Data Platform, which ingests, aggregates, and enriches data from its IoT devices and has embedded capabilities for AI, workflows and analytics, alerts, API connections, and data security and privacy; and applications for video-based safety, vehicle telematics, apps and driver workflows, equipment monitoring, and site visibility. It serves customers across a range of industries, including transportation and logistics, construction, field services, utilities and energy, government, healthcare and education, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and food and beverage. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneySamsara generates revenue primarily through a subscription-based model, where customers pay recurring fees for access to its IoT platform and services. Key revenue streams include hardware sales, such as GPS devices and sensors, and monthly or annual subscription fees for software services that include data analytics, real-time monitoring, and reporting tools. Additionally, Samsara benefits from long-term contracts with clients, which provide predictable revenue. The company also cultivates significant partnerships with businesses in various industries, enhancing its product offerings and expanding its market reach, thereby contributing to its overall earnings.
Samsara Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized durable, accelerating growth at scale with significant product momentum (ending ARR $1.9B, +30% YoY; FY '26 net new ARR $432M; emerging products now >$100M ARR and 23% of Q4 net new ACV), margin expansion, GAAP profitability, and a clear AI/data-driven strategy. Headwinds noted include guidance showing slower growth rates for FY '27 compared with FY '26, component cost pressure (storage/NAND), concentration in larger customers, and ongoing change-management challenges in customer adoption. Overall, positives (strong growth, expanding margins, product/AI traction, large deal wins and conservative yet profitable guidance) materially outweigh the listed lowlights.Q4-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong ARR and Net New ARR Growth
Ending ARR of $1.9B, up 30% year-over-year; FY '26 net new ARR of $432M, up 21% year-over-year; Q4 net new ARR of $145M, up 33% year-over-year (31% in constant currency) and the highest net new ARR growth in the past 8 quarters.
Large Customer Momentum
ARR from $100,000+ customers totaled $1.2B, up 37% year-over-year; 3,194 $100k+ ARR customers at year-end (added 204 in Q4); $100k+ customers represent 61% of total ARR (up from 58% a year ago).
Enterprise Deals and Upscale Wins
Quarterly record 13 $1M+ net new ACV transactions; ARR from $1M+ customers grew 56% year-over-year; 9 of top 10 net new ACV deals in Q4 included 2+ products, 8 included 3+ products and 6 included 4+ products, reflecting strong multiproduct adoption.
Revenue and International Acceleration
FY '26 revenue of $1.6B, up 30% year-over-year (29% in constant currency); 15% of Q4 net new ACV from non-U.S. geographies with Europe ARR growth accelerating for the fourth straight quarter and Canada posting its highest YoY net new ACV growth in 10 quarters.
Emerging Product Traction
Emerging products contributed 23% of net new ACV in Q4 and now represent >$100M in ARR; Asset Tags ending ARR more than tripled YoY and Q4 included the largest-ever Asset Tags deal (Total Safety).
Profitability and Margin Expansion
Achieved GAAP profitability for the second consecutive quarter; FY '26 non-GAAP gross margin 78% (up 1 ppt YoY), non-GAAP operating margin 17% (up 8 ppts YoY), and free cash flow margin 13% (up 4 ppts YoY).
High Dollar-Based Net Retention
Dollar-based net retention approximately 115% for core customers under both the prior $10k+ and updated $25k+ ARR definitions, indicating strong retention and expansion within the base.
Operational and Product Innovations
Launched AI Safety Coach (first AI agent) and roadmap for other AI agents; platform processes >25 trillion data points annually; doubled network density in 2 years and introduced Asset Tag XS (5x smaller) and a new Asset Tag with 6-year battery life (50% improvement).
Conservative and Growth-Embedded Guidance
Q1 FY '27 guidance: revenue $454M–$456M (+24% YoY, 22-23% cc), non-GAAP operating margin 15%, non-GAAP EPS $0.12–$0.13. FY '27 guidance: revenue $1.965B–$1.975B (+21–22% YoY), non-GAAP operating margin 19%, non-GAAP EPS $0.65–$0.69, and expected GAAP profitability for FY '27.
Go-to-Market Efficiency
ARR per employee has increased materially (ARR per employee up >30% over the last 3 years) and management highlighted continued productivity improvements and focused hiring primarily in go-to-market roles to drive further leverage.
Negative Updates
Decelerating Growth Rate in Guidance
FY '27 revenue growth guide of 21–22% represents a material deceleration from FY '26's 30% ARR and revenue growth, signaling a slower top-line growth trajectory at the new scale.
Concentration in Large Customers
$100k+ customers now make up 61% of total ARR and $25k+ customers contribute 85% of ARR, indicating increasing concentration in larger accounts which could amplify exposure to upsell/renewal risk within a smaller number of customers.
Supply-Chain and Component Cost Pressure
Management noted increases in storage (NAND) pricing which could pressure margins; while they view this as manageable and an opportunity to gain share, it is a potential near-term headwind that was factored into modeling notes.
Adoption and Change-Management Friction
Management reiterated that digitization of physical operations remains in early stages and requires significant change management with frontline workers, implying multi-year adoption timelines and potential variability in rollout speed.
Short-Term GAAP Variability
Although GAAP profitable for two consecutive quarters and expected profitable for FY '27, management cautioned Q1 may be slightly GAAP negative due to typical seasonal OpEx patterns, introducing short-term variability.
Leadership Transition
Chief Product Officer Kiran Saker retired; CTO/Co-Founder and SVP Product Management will assume leadership responsibilities, representing an executive transition risk even though management framed it positively.
Company Guidance
Samsara guided Q1 FY‑27 revenue of $454–456 million (≈24% YoY growth; 22–23% in constant currency), non‑GAAP operating margin of 15%, and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.12–0.13 (guidance uses FX as of Jan 31 and is deliberately de‑risked); for full‑year FY‑27 it expects revenue of $1.965–1.975 billion (21–22% YoY; ~21% constant currency), non‑GAAP operating margin of 19%, non‑GAAP EPS of $0.65–0.69, and to be GAAP profitable for the full year (management noted Q1 may be slightly GAAP negative as seasonal OpEx exits).Samsara Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong revenue scaling and consistently high/improving gross margins, with a major inflection to meaningful positive operating cash flow and free cash flow. Balance sheet leverage is low and equity has strengthened, though GAAP operating profitability is not yet firmly established.Income Statement
Revenue scaled strongly over the period (from ~$250M in 2021 to ~$1.62B in 2026), while gross margin remained consistently high and improved slightly (~70% to ~77%), highlighting strong unit economics. Profitability also improved materially, with net losses narrowing from very large deficits in 2021–2024 to near break-even in 2026 (net margin ~-0.6%). The key weakness is that the company is still not consistently profitable at the operating line (operating profitability remains negative, despite the sharp improvement).62
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks conservative: debt is modest and leverage is low in recent years (debt-to-equity ~0.05 in 2026), with equity rising meaningfully alongside asset growth. Returns on equity improved as losses narrowed, moving from deeply negative levels in earlier years to near break-even in 2026. A notable historical risk is that equity was negative in 2021, but the capital position has since strengthened substantially.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation improved significantly and is now a clear strength: operating cash flow turned positive and expanded to ~$236M in 2026, and free cash flow reached ~$207M, indicating good cash efficiency even while reported earnings are slightly negative. Earlier years showed cash burn (negative operating and free cash flow through 2024), so the main watch item is sustaining this newer cash-flow profile through cycles, but the recent trajectory is strongly positive.84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.62B | 1.25B | 937.38M | 652.54M | 428.35M |
| Gross Profit | 1.24B | 950.88M | 690.35M | 469.89M | 303.86M |
| EBITDA | -28.53M | -164.45M | -171.08M | -167.10M | -304.39M |
| Net Income | -9.12M | -154.91M | -286.73M | -247.42M | -355.02M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.54B | 2.02B | 1.73B | 1.62B | 1.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 833.79M | 694.80M | 547.66M | 689.86M | 921.22M |
| Total Debt | 72.77M | 80.28M | 99.49M | 122.92M | 144.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.12B | 955.11M | 819.70M | 678.99M | 578.98M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.42B | 1.07B | 915.15M | 938.02M | 988.95M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 207.44M | 111.48M | -22.77M | -136.26M | -190.83M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 236.21M | 131.66M | -11.81M | -103.02M | -171.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -189.53M | -66.62M | -78.69M | -631.85M | -20.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 29.93M | 27.10M | 21.00M | 14.21M | 701.64M |
Samsara Technical Analysis
Positive
34.16
Price Trends
30.55
Positive
34.74
Negative
36.78
Negative
Market Momentum
0.61
Negative
65.74
Neutral
89.94
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IOT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.27, above the 50-day MA of 30.55, and below the 200-day MA of 36.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.94 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IOT.
Samsara Risk Analysis
Samsara disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Samsara reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Samsara Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $18.98B | -1,764.42 | -0.72% | ― | 28.96% | 84.06% | |
72 Outperform | $62.30B | 31.84 | 123.64% | ― | 14.78% | 22.52% | |
72 Outperform | $135.11B | 71.18 | 15.49% | ― | 15.30% | -60.71% | |
69 Neutral | $110.00B | -686.05 | -4.68% | ― | 22.05% | -341.24% | |
66 Neutral | $25.18B | -232.70 | -3.48% | ― | 23.24% | -8.83% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $70.92B | ― | -7.48% | ― | 28.06% | -7.44% |
* Technology Sector Average
IOT
Samsara
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Samsara Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Samsara Executives Outline 2026 Insider Share Sale Plans
Neutral
Jan 6, 2026
On January 6, 2026, Samsara announced that CEO and co-founder Sanjit Biswas and CTO and co-founder John Bicket had previously adopted pre-arranged stock trading plans on September 29, 2025, for affiliated family trusts as part of long-term asset diversification and liquidity strategies. Under these Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, the executives intend to sell up to approximately 5 million shares each between January 6 and December 24, 2026, with sales subject to Rule 144 volume limits and other plan conditions and to be reported through required SEC filings. As of January 1, 2026, the two executives collectively beneficially owned about 196.3 million shares, or 34.02% of Samsara’s outstanding stock, and even if all planned sales are completed, they would still hold roughly 186.3 million shares, or 32.29%, signaling continued significant insider ownership while attempting to minimize market impact and provide transparency around insider share sales.
The most recent analyst rating on (IOT) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Samsara stock, see the IOT Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.