Howmet Aerospace (HWM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $103.78B
• Dividend Yield: 0.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 54.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: 9.70%
• EPS Growth: 36.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,930
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 1.05
• Shares Outstanding: 400,940,060
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,507,882
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,914,512
• PEG Ratio: 1.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 15.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 57.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 40.96
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 43.59
• 1Y Price Target: $280.57
• Price Target Upside: 7.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.59
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.26B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $298.00 ▲(14.58% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (margin expansion, rising free cash flow, and deleveraging) and supportive earnings-call guidance. This is tempered by expensive valuation (high P/E, low yield) and technically stretched momentum signals (overbought readings), which increase downside risk despite the prevailing uptrend.

Positive Factors

Margin Expansion & Profitability

Howmet's pronounced margin expansion to ~30.7% gross and ~18.3% net in 2025 reflects durable operating leverage from higher‑value engine and spares mix, productivity gains and pricing power. Sustained margins support cash flow generation and resilience across the aircraft cycle over the next several quarters.

Robust Free Cash Flow Generation

Record free cash flow ($1.43B) and improving operating cash flow demonstrate durable cash conversion capacity, enabling ongoing capex, dividend increases and buybacks. Consistent positive FCF since 2021 underpins financial flexibility to invest in growth and absorb cyclical shocks over 2–6 months.

Improved Leverage & Liquidity

Material deleveraging (debt down, debt/ equity ~0.57x and net debt/EBITDA near 1x) plus cash and unused revolver enhance balance sheet resilience. Strong liquidity positions Howmet to fund strategic initiatives and absorb shocks without immediate stress, supporting medium‑term stability.

Negative Factors

Dependence on OEM Aircraft Build Rates

Management's outlook explicitly relies on Boeing and Airbus build‑rate assumptions; slower OEM ramps or supply chain constraints would directly reduce demand for components, limiting revenue upside and pressuring margins. This structural dependency remains a key risk over the coming quarters.

Input‑Cost and Tariff Exposure

Howmet's products are sensitive to aluminum and metal price swings and tariff regimes. Cost volatility and imperfect pass‑through can compress margins and create unpredictability in profitability, representing a persistent structural headwind while global commodity and trade dynamics remain unsettled.

M&A Leverage and Integration Risk

Debt‑financed $1.8B CAM acquisition raises leverage and adds integration execution and regulatory risk. If synergies, margin accretion or close timing slip, incremental interest and integration costs could strain cash allocation priorities and margin sustainability over the medium term.

Howmet Aerospace Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines; and rotating parts, as well as structural parts. The Fastening Systems segment produces aerospace fastening systems, as well as commercial transportation, industrial, and other fasteners. The Engineered Structures segment provides titanium ingots and mill products for aerospace and defense applications; and aluminum and nickel forgings, and machined components and assemblies. The Forged Wheels segment offers forged aluminum wheels and related products for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation markets. The company was formerly known as Arconic Inc. The company was founded in 1888 and is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Howmet Aerospace generates revenue through the manufacture and sale of its aerospace components and systems. The company's primary revenue streams include the production of titanium and aluminum precision components, fasteners, and engineered solutions for both commercial and defense markets. Key customers include major aerospace companies such as Boeing and Airbus, as well as defense contractors. Additionally, Howmet Aerospace benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with these companies, ensuring a steady flow of income. The company's focus on research and development allows it to innovate and expand its product offerings, further enhancing its revenue potential in the competitive aerospace market.

Howmet Aerospace Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamental trajectory: revenue recovery with meaningful margin expansion (gross ~30.7%, net ~18.3% in 2025), accelerating operating cash flow and free cash flow, and improved leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.57x). Key watch items are decelerating 2025 revenue growth and cash conversion running below net income.

Income Statement

Revenue has recovered strongly from the 2020–2021 downturn, reaching $8.25B in 2025 with steady growth (2025: +3.5% vs. 2024: +11.9%). Profitability has expanded meaningfully: gross margin improved from ~21.7% (2020) to ~30.7% (2025), and net margin rose from ~4.0% (2020) to ~18.3% (2025), indicating strong operating leverage and execution. A key watch item is the decelerating top-line growth in 2025 versus prior years, which could limit further margin-driven upside if demand slows.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially, with total debt down from ~$5.21B (2020) to ~$3.05B (2025) and debt-to-equity improving from ~1.46x to ~0.57x, reflecting active deleveraging and strengthening equity. Returns are strong, with return on equity rising to ~28.2% in 2025, signaling efficient capital use alongside higher profitability. The main limitation is that debt remains sizable in absolute terms (~$3.05B), so the balance sheet is improved but still requires continued discipline if the cycle weakens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is robust and improving: operating cash flow increased to ~$1.88B (2025) from ~$1.30B (2024) and ~$0.90B (2023), and free cash flow rose to ~$1.43B (2025) with a sharp acceleration in growth (2025: +35.3%). Free cash flow is consistently positive since 2021, a clear improvement from 2020 when free cash flow was negative. A moderate caution is that free cash flow runs below net income (about ~76% in 2025), suggesting working capital/cash conversion is good but not fully matching accounting earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.25B	7.43B	6.64B	5.66B	4.97B
Gross Profit	2.54B	2.05B	1.61B	1.35B	1.13B
EBITDA	2.41B	1.84B	1.47B	1.10B	853.00M
Net Income	1.51B	1.16B	765.00M	469.00M	258.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.18B	10.52B	10.43B	10.26B	10.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	742.00M	564.00M	610.00M	791.00M	720.00M
Total Debt	3.05B	3.47B	3.83B	4.28B	4.35B
Total Liabilities	5.83B	5.96B	6.39B	6.65B	6.71B
Stockholders Equity	5.35B	4.55B	4.04B	3.60B	3.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.43B	977.00M	682.00M	540.00M	250.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.88B	1.30B	901.00M	733.00M	449.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-438.00M	-316.00M	-215.00M	-135.00M	107.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.27B	-1.03B	-868.00M	-526.00M	-1.44B

Howmet Aerospace Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 260.09
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HWM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 260.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 245.62, above the 50-day MA of 226.42, and above the 200-day MA of 195.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HWM.

Howmet Aerospace Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PH	80 Outperform	$124.79B	32.82	25.79%	0.79%	0.22%	26.66%
AME	79 Outperform	$53.87B	31.97	14.59%	0.59%	3.67%	10.44%
HWM	75 Outperform	$103.78B	54.93	30.44%	0.21%	9.70%	36.28%
EMR	69 Neutral	$81.65B	30.81	11.31%	1.58%	2.97%	18.14%
CMI	67 Neutral	$77.39B	24.76	25.14%	1.48%	-1.78%	27.35%
TDG	65 Neutral	$74.27B	49.35	―	―	11.33%	25.37%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Howmet Aerospace Corporate Events

Howmet Aerospace Issues Senior Notes to Fund Acquisition

On March 3, 2026, Howmet Aerospace closed an underwritten public offering of $1.2 billion in senior notes, issuing $400 million of 3.750% notes due 2028, $300 million of 3.900% notes due 2029 and $500 million of 4.750% notes due 2036 under its existing indenture. The notes feature standard covenants, detailed optional redemption provisions and customary events of default, reinforcing the company’s access to long-term capital markets at relatively low fixed rates.

Howmet plans to use the notes’ net proceeds, together with $600 million in commercial paper or other debt and cash on hand, to fund the approximately $1.8 billion purchase of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing, LLC, with a special mandatory redemption feature requiring the 2036 notes to be redeemed at 101% of principal if the deal does not close. The structure underscores both the strategic importance of the proposed CAM acquisition to Howmet’s aerospace components portfolio and the protections afforded to noteholders if the transaction fails to materialize.

The most recent analyst rating on (HWM) stock is a Buy with a $300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howmet Aerospace stock, see the HWM Stock Forecast page.

Howmet Aerospace Prices $1.2 Billion Debt for Acquisition

On February 17, 2026, Howmet Aerospace Inc. announced the pricing of an underwritten public debt offering totaling $1.2 billion, comprising $400 million of 3.750% notes due 2028, $300 million of 3.900% notes due 2029, and $500 million of 4.750% notes due 2036, with closing expected on March 3, 2026, subject to customary conditions. The company plans to use the proceeds, along with $600 million in additional borrowings and cash on hand, to help finance the approximately $1.8 billion purchase price for its proposed acquisition of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing, LLC, underscoring an expansion push in aerospace components and a meaningful increase in its leverage profile to support portfolio growth.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and SMBC Nikko Securities America, Inc. are serving as joint book-running managers on the transaction, highlighting strong underwriting support from major Wall Street banks. The financing structure signals investor appetite for Howmet’s credit and illustrates the company’s intent to scale its aerospace manufacturing footprint through sizable, debt-funded M&A, with potential implications for future cash flows, integration execution, and returns for shareholders and creditors.

The most recent analyst rating on (HWM) stock is a Hold with a $260.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howmet Aerospace stock, see the HWM Stock Forecast page.

Howmet Aerospace Plans Debt-Financed Acquisition of CAM Unit

On February 17, 2026, Howmet Aerospace Inc. announced a proposed offering of senior notes, with pricing and terms subject to market conditions and other factors. The company plans to use the proceeds, along with $600 million in commercial paper or other debt and cash on hand, to help fund the approximately $1.8 billion purchase price for its proposed acquisition of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing, LLC, underscoring a strategic move to expand its aerospace portfolio and scale through debt-financed M&A.

The financing plan signals Howmet Aerospace’s continued use of the capital markets to support growth initiatives in the aerospace sector. If completed, the transaction would likely strengthen its competitive position by broadening its product offerings and customer base in aerospace manufacturing, with implications for leverage levels and future cash flow allocation for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HWM) stock is a Hold with a $260.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howmet Aerospace stock, see the HWM Stock Forecast page.

Howmet Aerospace to Acquire CAM in $1.8B Deal

On December 22, 2025, Howmet Aerospace announced a definitive agreement to acquire Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing (CAM), a global designer and manufacturer of precision fasteners, fluid fittings and other highly engineered products for demanding aerospace and defense uses, from Stanley Black & Decker in an all‑cash deal valued at approximately $1.8 billion. The transaction, which is expected to close in the first half of 2026 subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals, is positioned as a major step in expanding Howmet’s differentiated fastener portfolio, deepening its exposure to key aerospace and defense platforms and benefiting from favorable federal tax treatment; CAM is projected to deliver $485–$495 million in revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin above 20% in fiscal 2026, implying a post‑synergy EBITDA multiple of about 13 times and signaling a strategic use of capital intended to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (HWM) stock is a Buy with a $246.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howmet Aerospace stock, see the HWM Stock Forecast page.