Robinhood (HOOD)
NASDAQ:HOOD
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Robinhood
(NASDAQ:HOOD)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$74.00
▲(2.01% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (strong TTM profitability and free cash flow) and a constructive earnings-call outlook. This is materially offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum) and a premium P/E valuation that raises execution risk if growth or engagement softens.
Positive Factors
High profitability and cash generation
Sustained high margins and strong free cash flow indicate durable earnings quality and internal capital to fund product expansion, buybacks, or debt repayment without heavy external financing. Over the next 2–6 months this supports strategic investments and buffers execution risk during growth initiatives.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage on the balance sheet
A near doubling of debt-to-equity increases financial leverage and constrains flexibility to fund new initiatives or absorb shocks. With sizable assets but higher liabilities, servicing debt and meeting covenants could limit optionality for M&A, capital returns, or cushioning volatile revenue swings in the coming 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability and cash generation
Sustained high margins and strong free cash flow indicate durable earnings quality and internal capital to fund product expansion, buybacks, or debt repayment without heavy external financing. Over the next 2–6 months this supports strategic investments and buffers execution risk during growth initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Robinhood (HOOD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$65.31B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)29.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.4
Beta (1Y)3.19
Revenue Growth73.48%
EPS Growth315.24%
CountryUS
Employees2,900
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.66
Shares Outstanding790,054,600
10 Day Avg. Volume25,390,060
30 Day Avg. Volume29,110,141
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.64
Price to Book (P/B)10.98
Price to Sales (P/S)22.47
P/FCF Ratio61.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue16.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$120.07Price Target Upside65.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)2.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.46B
Robinhood Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates financial services platform in the United States. Its platform allows users to invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, gold, and cryptocurrencies. The company also offers various learning and educa...
How the Company Makes Money
Robinhood primarily makes money from transaction-based and net interest revenues, plus smaller ancillary fees. (1) Transaction-based revenues: Robinhood earns revenue tied to customer trading activity, most notably through payment for order flow (...
Robinhood Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gold Subscribers
Counts the number of users subscribed to Robinhood Gold, reflecting the uptake of premium services and potential for higher revenue per user.
Counts the number of users subscribed to Robinhood Gold, reflecting the uptake of premium services and potential for higher revenue per user.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRobinhood Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: large double‑digit revenue growth (52% YoY), record adjusted EBITDA and margins, major increases in platform assets and deposits, clear product traction across prediction markets, shorting, banking, Gold subscriptions and Bitstamp, and meaningful AI‑driven efficiencies. These positives are tempered by share price weakness, some retail volume softness and mix variability (crypto/retail), and regulatory/operational hurdles for ambitious new offerings (prediction markets tied to company metrics, U.S. tokenization/private markets). On balance the company presented more and larger material achievements than risks, while acknowledging and underwriting regulatory and investment risks.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Profitability
Full-year 2025 revenue of $4.5B, up 52% year‑over‑year; adjusted EBITDA of $2.5B, up 76% YoY; adjusted EBITDA margin reached a record 56%; record EPS of $2.05.
Negative Updates
Share Price Weakness
Management and shareholders noted a more than 40% decline in Robinhood's share price; leadership stressed focus on business inputs rather than short‑term stock moves.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Profitability
Full-year 2025 revenue of $4.5B, up 52% year‑over‑year; adjusted EBITDA of $2.5B, up 76% YoY; adjusted EBITDA margin reached a record 56%; record EPS of $2.05.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026 centers on accelerating product velocity while delivering “another year of profitable growth”: adjusted OPEX + SBC are guided to $2.60–$2.725 billion (midpoint ≈18% YoY expense growth, ~5ppt into existing businesses, ~3ppt from full‑year effect of Bitstamp & TradePMR, ~10ppt into new/scaling businesses), a target of 20%+ net deposit growth, plans to more than double Robinhood Gold Card customers to well over 1 million (card: ~600k in 2025) and continue expanding Gold subscribers (4.2M, +~60% YoY), and continued ROI underwriting for new investments; management pointed to strong early‑year momentum—January volumes +50% YoY (options +20%), Q1 net deposits >$7B (including >$2B last week), and February ADTVs up vs. January—building on 2025 results (revenues $4.5B, +52% YoY; adjusted EBITDA $2.5B, +76%, margin 56%; EPS $2.05; total platform assets $324B, +~70% YoY; net deposits $68B; Q4 revenue $1.3B, +27%; Q4 net deposits $16B; interest‑earning assets +39%; margin +100% YoY), plus product KPIs (prediction markets: >12B contracts in 2025, $300M+ run rate, >4B traded in 2026 so far; >25k funded banking customers with >$400M balances and >50% direct‑deposit attach; Bitstamp volumes ~2x since close; >750k international customers; 2,000 stock tokens in Europe; 11 businesses >$100M ARR; AI resolving >75% of support cases and engineering efficiencies in the nine‑figure range in 2025).Robinhood Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.47B | 2.95B | 1.86B | 1.36B | 1.81B |
| Gross Profit | 3.28B | 2.45B | 1.41B | 770.00M | 1.31B |
| EBITDA | 2.19B | 1.13B | -460.00M | -905.00M | -1.61B |
| Net Income | 1.88B | 1.41B | -541.00M | -1.03B | -3.69B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 38.14B | 26.19B | 17.62B | 23.34B | 19.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.04B | 10.50B | 8.44B | 7.85B | 8.09B |
| Total Debt | 15.41B | 7.46B | 3.55B | 1.83B | 3.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.99B | 18.21B | 10.93B | 16.38B | 12.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.15B | 7.97B | 6.70B | 6.96B | 7.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.62B | -170.00M | 1.16B | -909.00M | -968.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.64B | -157.00M | 1.18B | -852.00M | -884.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 141.00M | -148.00M | -582.00M | -60.00M | -237.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -590.00M | -345.00M | -610.00M | 0.00 | 5.20B |
Robinhood Technical Analysis
Negative
72.54
Price Trends
85.17
Negative
104.65
Negative
107.82
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.53
Negative
42.39
Neutral
25.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOOD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 72.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.14, below the 50-day MA of 85.17, and below the 200-day MA of 107.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HOOD.
Robinhood Risk Analysis
Robinhood disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Robinhood reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Robinhood Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $30.60B | 29.11 | 19.88% | 0.46% | 11.88% | 28.96% | |
74 Outperform | $166.44B | 20.00 | 17.91% | 1.07% | 5.90% | 66.60% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $47.82B | 46.67 | 9.44% | ― | 47.86% | 96.46% | |
64 Neutral | $65.31B | 53.37 | 22.32% | ― | 73.48% | 315.24% | |
63 Neutral | $21.12B | 62.56 | 5.87% | ― | 22.40% | 215.81% | |
52 Neutral | $2.71B | 124.53 | 2.92% | ― | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
HOOD
Robinhood
70.35
26.36
59.92%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.