NIO Inc. Class A (9866) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$61.48B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.53
• Revenue Growth: 16.59%
• EPS Growth: 13.32%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 45,635
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): -3.28
• Shares Outstanding: 1,946,478,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,201,240
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,129,957
• PEG Ratio: -0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$41.37
• Price Target Upside: 45.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

NIO Inc. faces significant financial challenges, including negative cash flow, high debt, and ongoing losses, despite strong revenue growth. The bearish technical indicators and unattractive valuation further weigh on the stock's potential. While the company has ambitious strategic plans and technological advancements, these are overshadowed by current financial constraints.

Positive Factors

Market Position

NIO is a pioneer and leading Chinese company in the premium smart electric vehicle market.

Product Development

Major product cycle refresh with seven new models in FY25 to lift sales; estimate FY24-26F shipment volume CAGR of ~40%.

Technological Advancement

NIO has advanced battery swapping technology, and it is the first in industry to roll out battery as a service (BaaS) package for its customers.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Net losses widened, with SG&A expenses increasing >40% y/y to clear old inventory.

Guidance and Results

Expect negative share price reaction to disappointing 4Q24 results and weak 1Q25 guidance.

Market Competition

New model sales could be slower than expected due to intense market competition from the company’s affordable brands.

NIO Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China. It offers five, six, and seven-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company is also involved in the provision of energy and service packages to its users; design and technology development activities; manufacture of e-powertrains, battery packs, and components; and sales and after sales management activities. In addition, it offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging solution; Power Swap, a battery swapping service; Power Charger, a fast-charging solution; Power Mobile, a mobile charging service through charging vans; Power Map, an application that provides access to a network of public chargers and their real-time information; and One Click for Power valet service, where it offers vehicle pick up, charging, and swapping services. Further, the company provides repair, maintenance, and bodywork services through its NIO service centers and authorized third-party service centers; statutory and third-party liability insurance, and vehicle damage insurance through third-party insurers; courtesy vehicle services; roadside assistance; data packages; and auto financing and financial leasing services. Additionally, it offers NIO Certified, a used vehicle inspection, evaluation, acquisition, and sales service. The company was formerly known as NextEV Inc. and changed its name to NIO Inc. in July 2017. NIO Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

How the Company Makes Money

NIO Inc. primarily generates revenue through the sale of its electric vehicles, which include models like the ES6, ES8, and EC6. A significant portion of its income is derived from vehicle sales, but the company also earns money through various service offerings. These include its battery-as-a-service (BaaS) model, which allows users to subscribe to battery packs separately from vehicle ownership, and its network of battery swap stations, which provide a convenient alternative to traditional charging. Additionally, NIO benefits from government incentives for electric vehicles and has partnerships with companies like CATL for battery supply, which support its operations and growth in the burgeoning electric vehicle market.

NIO Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NIO Inc. shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow. Declining gross profit margins and negative net income indicate operational inefficiencies. High debt and reduced equity highlight financial risks, while negative cash flows suggest liquidity concerns.

Income Statement

NIO Inc.'s income statement shows a consistent growth in total revenue over the years, with a noticeable increase from 49.3 billion in 2022 to 65.7 billion in 2024. However, the company has been unable to convert this revenue growth into profitability, as indicated by the persistent negative net income and declining gross profit margins, which fell from 10.4% in 2021 to 9.9% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet highlights a stable asset base, but with rising total debt levels, which increased from 20 billion in 2021 to 33.7 billion in 2024, leading to a high debt-to-equity ratio. The stockholders' equity decreased significantly from 25.5 billion in 2023 to 5.9 billion in 2024, indicating financial strain. The equity ratio shows weakness, suggesting a reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis reveals negative operating cash flow, worsening from -1.38 billion in 2023 to -7.85 billion in 2024, and a negative free cash flow trajectory, which indicates cash flow challenges. The company has been unable to generate sufficient cash from operations to cover capital expenditures, posing liquidity risks.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
65.73B	55.62B	49.27B	36.14B	16.26B
	Gross Profit
6.49B	3.05B	5.14B	6.82B	1.87B
	EBIT
-21.87B	-22.66B	-15.64B	-4.50B	-4.61B
	EBITDA
-18.50B	-15.15B	-10.05B	-985.36M	-3.33B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-22.66B	-21.15B	-14.56B	-10.57B	-5.30B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
33.47B	49.75B	39.06B	52.39B	39.51B
	Total Assets
107.60B	117.38B	96.26B	82.88B	54.64B
	Total Debt
33.77B	50.38B	23.71B	20.10B	9.43B
	Net Debt
14.45B	17.44B	3.82B	4.77B	-28.99B
	Total Liabilities
94.10B	91.65B	68.62B	44.82B	27.47B
	Stockholders Equity
5.97B	25.55B	23.87B	34.71B	27.17B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-16.99B	-15.72B	-10.84B	-2.11B	823.21M
	Operating Cash Flow
-7.85B	-1.38B	-3.87B	1.97B	1.95B
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	-10.89B	10.39B	-39.76B	-5.07B
	Financing Cash Flow
1.77B	27.66B	-1.62B	18.13B	41.36B

NIO Inc. Class A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 28.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9866, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.84, below the 50-day MA of 29.19, and below the 200-day MA of 35.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9866.

NIO Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.90B	11.05	2.80%	4.27%	2.67%	-24.92%
9866	41 Neutral	HK$61.48B	―	-239.29%	―	16.59%	13.32%
GELYF		$22.15B	7.90	24.35%	1.98%	―	―
GNZUF		$8.83B	31.53	-0.98%	1.54%	―	―
GWLLF		$22.93B	8.69	14.58%	2.56%	―	―
L87		€25.59B	26.02	12.25%	―	―	―
9868	58 Neutral	HK$145.16B	―	-15.50%	―	49.80%	50.02%

NIO Inc. Class A Corporate Events

NIO Inc. Files Annual Report for 2024, Reinforcing Regulatory Compliance

NIO Inc. has announced the filing of its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This regulatory announcement, made in compliance with Hong Kong Stock Exchange rules, underscores NIO’s commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence, potentially impacting investor confidence and stakeholder relations positively.

NIO Inc. Completes HK$4 Billion Share Offering to Strengthen Market Position

NIO Inc. announced the successful completion of a HK$4,030.13 million offering of 136,800,000 class A ordinary shares. This equity placement was conducted at an offering price of HK$29.46 per share, with the shares sold to non-U.S. persons in offshore transactions. The placement was facilitated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited, UBS AG Hong Kong Branch, China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited, and Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch. This move is expected to bolster NIO’s financial position and support its growth in the competitive electric vehicle market.

NIO Inc. Reports Strong Growth in Vehicle Deliveries for Q1 2025

NIO Inc. reported a significant increase in vehicle deliveries for March and the first quarter of 2025, with a 26.7% year-over-year rise in March and a 40.1% increase for the quarter. The company delivered a total of 42,094 vehicles in the first quarter, with cumulative deliveries reaching 713,658 by the end of March. The launch of the NIO ET9, a smart electric executive flagship vehicle, marks a new benchmark for executive smart electric vehicles, showcasing NIO’s full-stack technologies and industry-leading innovations.

NIO Inc. Announces Upsized HK$4,030 Million Share Offering

NIO Inc. announced the pricing of its upsized HK$4,030.13 million offering of 136,800,000 class A ordinary shares, with an offering price of HK$29.46 per share. The proceeds from this equity placement are intended for research and development of smart electric vehicle technologies, strengthening the balance sheet, and general corporate purposes. The placement is expected to close around April 7, 2025, and the shares will be offered to non-U.S. persons in offshore transactions. This move is part of NIO’s strategy to enhance its market position and support its technological advancements.

NIO Inc. Announces Proposed Offshore Equity Placement to Fund R&D and Strengthen Finances

NIO Inc. announced a proposed offering of up to 118,793,300 Class A ordinary shares in offshore transactions to non-U.S. persons, aiming to raise funds for research and development, balance sheet strengthening, and general corporate purposes. This equity placement reflects NIO’s strategic efforts to bolster its financial position and continue advancing its smart electric vehicle technologies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

NIO Inc. Reports Strong Growth in 2024 Financial Results

NIO Inc. announced its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighting significant growth in vehicle deliveries and revenues. The company delivered 72,689 vehicles in Q4 2024 and 221,970 vehicles for the full year, marking increases of 45.2% and 38.7% respectively from the previous year. Total revenues for the quarter reached RMB19,703.4 million, with full-year revenues at RMB65,731.6 million. This growth underscores NIO’s strong positioning in the electric vehicle market and its expanding customer base.

NIO Inc. Schedules Board Meeting to Approve Q4 and FY2024 Financial Results

NIO Inc. has announced that its board of directors will hold a meeting on March 21, 2025, to approve the company’s unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2024. The results will be published on the same day, and an earnings conference call will be hosted by the company’s management to discuss these results. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and future outlook.