NIO Inc. Class A (HK:9866)
:9866
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NIO Inc. Class A
(9866)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
HK$55.00
▲(35.33% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:04/14/26
The score is held back mainly by weak underlying financial quality—ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and high leverage—despite improving operating cash flow. Offsetting this are strong technical momentum and a positive earnings-call outlook with robust delivery growth, improving margins, and a 2026 breakeven target, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Delivery Growth
Sustained, large percentage delivery growth across quarters and year provides durable top-line momentum and scale. Higher volumes support fixed-cost absorption, supply-chain leverage and network effects (service, software uptake), improving revenue visibility and long-term profitability prospects.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Very high leverage materially limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk over the medium term. Debt-heavy capital structure constrains ability to absorb cyclical shocks or fund heavy capex (swap stations, R&D) without dilutive or costly financing, impairing long-run resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Delivery Growth
Sustained, large percentage delivery growth across quarters and year provides durable top-line momentum and scale. Higher volumes support fixed-cost absorption, supply-chain leverage and network effects (service, software uptake), improving revenue visibility and long-term profitability prospects.
Read all positive factors
NIO Inc. Class A (9866) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$124.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)11.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth33.63%
EPS Growth36.31%
CountryHK
Employees45,635
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.06
Shares Outstanding2,328,724,900
10 Day Avg. Volume9,875,126
30 Day Avg. Volume11,109,198
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.15
Price to Book (P/B)20.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio-27.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$57.47Price Target Upside41.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$149.96B
NIO Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China. It offers five, six, and seven-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company is also involved in the provision of energy and service packag...
How the Company Makes Money
NIO primarily makes money by selling electric vehicles to customers, with revenue recognized from vehicle deliveries (including the sale of the car and associated options). In addition to vehicle sales, NIO generates revenue from (1) services and ...
NIO Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational and financial momentum: record deliveries, robust revenue growth (+75.9% YoY in Q4), meaningful margin improvement, the company's first profitable quarter, positive cash flow, major tech milestones (5nm chip, world model with closed-loop RL) and substantial charging/swapping scale (100M cumulative swaps). Management also provided constructive guidance (40–50% volume growth target, Q1 margins similar to Q4, R&D and SG&A discipline) and confirmed strategic initiatives (new models, Shenji financing). Key risks include emerging raw material and memory cost inflation, rising related-party receivables tied to battery services, and near-term infrastructure investment losses. Overall, the positive operational and financial developments and concrete technology and infrastructure progress outweigh the noted challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Delivery Growth
Q4 2025 deliveries of 124,807 vehicles, up 71.7% YoY; full-year 2025 deliveries of 326,028 vehicles, up 46.9% YoY. Q1 2026 guidance of 80,000–83,000 vehicles, implying a YoY increase of ~90.1%–97.2%. Jan-Feb 2026 deliveries: 27,182 and 20,797.
Negative Updates
Rising Raw Material and Component Costs
Management flagged emerging cost pressures from memory chips, lithium carbonate, copper and other raw materials starting in Q1 2026; potential margin impact expected to increase into Q2 and beyond unless mitigated.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Delivery Growth
Q4 2025 deliveries of 124,807 vehicles, up 71.7% YoY; full-year 2025 deliveries of 326,028 vehicles, up 46.9% YoY. Q1 2026 guidance of 80,000–83,000 vehicles, implying a YoY increase of ~90.1%–97.2%. Jan-Feb 2026 deliveries: 27,182 and 20,797.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 2026 deliveries of 80,000–83,000 vehicles (up 90.1%–97.2% YoY) and reiterated a full‑year volume target of 40%–50% YoY, with three new model launches in 2026 (bringing five large SUV models into the line‑up); Q1 vehicle gross margin is expected to be roughly flat with Q4 (Q4 vehicle margin 18.1%), and the company is targeting full‑year non‑GAAP operating profit breakeven in 2026. They plan R&D spending of about RMB2.0–2.5 billion per quarter, aim to keep SG&A at or below 10% of revenue, will add ~1,000 power‑swap stations in 2026 (currently 3,815) while operating >28,000 chargers, and expect continued Smart Driving rollout (Smart Driving time +>80% month‑over‑month in Feb) with two major world‑model releases in Q2 and Q4. For context and near‑term cash/scale metrics they highlighted Q4 deliveries of 124,807 (+71.7% YoY), FY2025 deliveries 326,028 (+46.9% YoY), Q4 revenue RMB34.7 billion (+75.9% YoY) (vehicle sales RMB31.6bn; other sales RMB3.0bn), Q4 non‑GAAP operating profit RMB1.25bn (GAAP operating profit RMB810m), Q4 overall gross margin 17.5% (other sales margin 11.9%), positive free cash flow for two consecutive quarters and positive operating cash flow for FY2025, year‑end cash/investments of RMB45.9bn, 100 million cumulative swaps (single‑day swap peak >177,000), and Shenji (chip) financing of RMB2.257bn with a post‑money valuation >RMB8bn; longer‑term margin targets: NIO 20%–25%, ONVO >15%, FIREFLY >10%.NIO Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
20
Very Negative
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 69.42B | 85.22B | 65.73B | 55.62B | 49.27B | 36.14B |
| Gross Profit | 7.13B | 11.61B | 6.49B | 3.05B | 5.14B | 6.82B |
| EBITDA | -21.25B | -14.39B | -18.50B | -15.15B | -10.05B | -985.36M |
| Net Income | -24.31B | -14.57B | -22.66B | -21.15B | -14.56B | -10.57B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 100.05B | 124.45B | 107.60B | 117.38B | 96.26B | 82.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.80B | 45.80B | 33.47B | 49.75B | 39.06B | 52.39B |
| Total Debt | 29.10B | 31.26B | 33.77B | 50.38B | 23.71B | 20.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 93.43B | 111.76B | 94.10B | 91.65B | 68.62B | 44.82B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.21B | 4.16B | 5.97B | 25.55B | 23.87B | 34.71B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -2.99B | -16.99B | -15.72B | -10.84B | -2.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.92B | -7.85B | -1.38B | -3.87B | 1.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -10.68B | -4.96B | -10.89B | 10.39B | -39.76B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 6.18B | 1.77B | 27.66B | -1.62B | 18.13B |
NIO Inc. Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
40.64
Price Trends
43.20
Positive
41.47
Positive
43.47
Positive
Market Momentum
2.85
Negative
69.13
Neutral
89.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9866, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.37, below the 50-day MA of 43.20, and below the 200-day MA of 43.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:9866.
NIO Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
NIO Inc. Class A disclosed 122 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NIO Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NIO Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | HK$242.71B | 9.90 | 18.03% | 1.95% | 43.98% | -0.46% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | HK$173.19B | 24.70 | 10.49% | 3.41% | 17.13% | -18.63% | |
60 Neutral | HK$124.08B | -5.74 | -984.82% | ― | 33.63% | 36.31% | |
56 Neutral | HK$122.67B | -122.26 | -3.77% | ― | 88.09% | 80.63% | |
52 Neutral | HK$142.33B | 107.16 | 1.55% | ― | -22.22% | -86.30% | |
47 Neutral | HK$67.72B | -4.42 | -7.98% | 1.35% | -10.32% | -1210.80% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9866
NIO Inc. Class A
48.28
15.13
45.64%
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NIO Inc. Class A Corporate Events
NIO Files 2025 Annual Report as Cross-Listed EV Maker Updates Investors
Apr 10, 2026
NIO Inc. has announced that it has filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing, accessible via the company’s investor relations website, fulfi...
NIO Deliveries Nearly Double as ES8 SUV Cements Lead in China
Apr 1, 2026
NIO reported a sharp acceleration in deliveries for March and the first quarter of 2026, underlining rapid growth across its three brands in the increasingly competitive electric vehicle market. The company delivered 35,486 vehicles in March, up 1...
NIO Rides Surging Deliveries and 100 Million Battery Swaps to Strengthen EV Position
Mar 1, 2026
NIO Inc., a leading smart electric vehicle manufacturer, operates multiple brands across market segments, including premium NIO models, family-focused ONVO vehicles, and FIREFLY small high-end cars. The company aims to pair advanced EV technologie...
NIO Sets March 10 Board Meeting and Earnings Call for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Feb 26, 2026
NIO Inc. has scheduled a board meeting for March 10, 2026, to approve its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. The company plans to release these Q4 and FY2025 figures the same day on both the H...
NIO Secures RMB2.26 Billion Investment for Intelligent-Driving Chip Subsidiary
Feb 26, 2026
NIO has announced that its subsidiary GeniTech Co., Ltd., known as Shenji and responsible for NIO’s intelligent-driving chip business, has entered into definitive agreements with domestic investors for a cash investment of RMB2.257 billion. ...
NIO Forecasts First Quarterly Operating Profit on Strong Q4 2025 Momentum
Feb 5, 2026
NIO said it expects to report its first-ever quarterly adjusted profit from operations in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a sharp turnaround from a substantial adjusted operating loss a year earlier. Based on preliminary, unaudited internal fi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.