NIO Inc. Class A (HK:9866)
:9866
Top Page
NIO Inc. Class A
(9866)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:40Underperform
Price Target:
HK$36.00
▼(-11.42% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/14/26
The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance—ongoing losses, deteriorating operating/free cash flow, and a more leveraged balance sheet with sharply reduced equity. Technicals also point to a bearish trend with negative momentum indicators and price below key moving averages. Valuation remains unattractive on an earnings basis due to the company’s loss-making position.
Positive Factors
Delivery and Demand Growth
Sustained, rapid delivery growth is a durable indicator of market traction and revenue scalability. Higher unit volumes improve fixed-cost absorption and dealer/service network economics, supporting long-term top-line expansion and potential pathway to improved unit margins as scale rises.
Negative Factors
Persistent Unprofitability and Margin Pressure
Despite strong revenue growth, ongoing net losses and falling gross margins indicate structural challenges converting sales into sustainable profits. Continued margin compression undermines internal funding for R&D and capex, increasing reliance on external financing and pressuring long-term return on capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Delivery and Demand Growth
Sustained, rapid delivery growth is a durable indicator of market traction and revenue scalability. Higher unit volumes improve fixed-cost absorption and dealer/service network economics, supporting long-term top-line expansion and potential pathway to improved unit margins as scale rises.
Read all positive factors
NIO Inc. Class A (9866) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$109.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)11.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth14.73%
EPS Growth2.81%
CountryHK
Employees45,635
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.06
Shares Outstanding2,099,062,700
10 Day Avg. Volume9,875,126
30 Day Avg. Volume11,109,198
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)11.25
Price to Sales (P/S)1.02
P/FCF Ratio-3.95
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$56.65Price Target Upside39.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$148.35B
NIO Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China. It offers five, six, and seven-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company is also involved in the provision of energy and service packag...
How the Company Makes Money
NIO generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of its electric vehicles. The company sells its various models directly to consumers, which is a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, NIO has established a un...
NIO Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational and financial momentum: record deliveries, robust revenue growth (+75.9% YoY in Q4), meaningful margin improvement, the company's first profitable quarter, positive cash flow, major tech milestones (5nm chip, world model with closed-loop RL) and substantial charging/swapping scale (100M cumulative swaps). Management also provided constructive guidance (40–50% volume growth target, Q1 margins similar to Q4, R&D and SG&A discipline) and confirmed strategic initiatives (new models, Shenji financing). Key risks include emerging raw material and memory cost inflation, rising related-party receivables tied to battery services, and near-term infrastructure investment losses. Overall, the positive operational and financial developments and concrete technology and infrastructure progress outweigh the noted challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Delivery Growth
Q4 2025 deliveries of 124,807 vehicles, up 71.7% YoY; full-year 2025 deliveries of 326,028 vehicles, up 46.9% YoY. Q1 2026 guidance of 80,000–83,000 vehicles, implying a YoY increase of ~90.1%–97.2%. Jan-Feb 2026 deliveries: 27,182 and 20,797.
Negative Updates
Rising Raw Material and Component Costs
Management flagged emerging cost pressures from memory chips, lithium carbonate, copper and other raw materials starting in Q1 2026; potential margin impact expected to increase into Q2 and beyond unless mitigated.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Delivery Growth
Q4 2025 deliveries of 124,807 vehicles, up 71.7% YoY; full-year 2025 deliveries of 326,028 vehicles, up 46.9% YoY. Q1 2026 guidance of 80,000–83,000 vehicles, implying a YoY increase of ~90.1%–97.2%. Jan-Feb 2026 deliveries: 27,182 and 20,797.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 2026 deliveries of 80,000–83,000 vehicles (up 90.1%–97.2% YoY) and reiterated a full‑year volume target of 40%–50% YoY, with three new model launches in 2026 (bringing five large SUV models into the line‑up); Q1 vehicle gross margin is expected to be roughly flat with Q4 (Q4 vehicle margin 18.1%), and the company is targeting full‑year non‑GAAP operating profit breakeven in 2026. They plan R&D spending of about RMB2.0–2.5 billion per quarter, aim to keep SG&A at or below 10% of revenue, will add ~1,000 power‑swap stations in 2026 (currently 3,815) while operating >28,000 chargers, and expect continued Smart Driving rollout (Smart Driving time +>80% month‑over‑month in Feb) with two major world‑model releases in Q2 and Q4. For context and near‑term cash/scale metrics they highlighted Q4 deliveries of 124,807 (+71.7% YoY), FY2025 deliveries 326,028 (+46.9% YoY), Q4 revenue RMB34.7 billion (+75.9% YoY) (vehicle sales RMB31.6bn; other sales RMB3.0bn), Q4 non‑GAAP operating profit RMB1.25bn (GAAP operating profit RMB810m), Q4 overall gross margin 17.5% (other sales margin 11.9%), positive free cash flow for two consecutive quarters and positive operating cash flow for FY2025, year‑end cash/investments of RMB45.9bn, 100 million cumulative swaps (single‑day swap peak >177,000), and Shenji (chip) financing of RMB2.257bn with a post‑money valuation >RMB8bn; longer‑term margin targets: NIO 20%–25%, ONVO >15%, FIREFLY >10%.NIO Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
40
Negative
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 69.42B | 65.73B | 55.62B | 49.27B | 36.14B | 16.26B |
| Gross Profit | 7.13B | 6.49B | 3.05B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 1.87B |
| EBITDA | -21.25B | -18.50B | -15.15B | -10.05B | -985.36M | -3.33B |
| Net Income | -24.31B | -22.66B | -21.15B | -14.56B | -10.57B | -5.61B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 100.05B | 107.60B | 117.38B | 96.26B | 82.88B | 54.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.80B | 33.47B | 49.75B | 39.06B | 52.39B | 42.38B |
| Total Debt | 29.10B | 33.77B | 50.38B | 23.71B | 20.10B | 9.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 93.43B | 94.10B | 91.65B | 68.62B | 44.82B | 27.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.21B | 5.97B | 25.55B | 23.87B | 34.71B | 27.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -16.99B | -15.72B | -10.84B | -2.11B | 823.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -7.85B | -1.38B | -3.87B | 1.97B | 1.95B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -4.96B | -10.89B | 10.39B | -39.76B | -5.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.77B | 27.66B | -1.62B | 18.13B | 41.36B |
NIO Inc. Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
40.64
Price Trends
40.81
Positive
41.56
Positive
42.47
Positive
Market Momentum
1.74
Negative
65.37
Neutral
74.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9866, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.74, below the 50-day MA of 40.81, and below the 200-day MA of 42.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:9866.
NIO Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
NIO Inc. Class A disclosed 122 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NIO Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NIO Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | HK$258.31B | 9.90 | 18.03% | 1.95% | ― | ― | |
66 Neutral | HK$178.22B | 12.11 | 11.66% | 3.41% | 7.93% | -12.94% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | HK$146.56B | 107.16 | 1.55% | ― | -10.21% | -54.95% | |
53 Neutral | HK$129.45B | -122.26 | -9.33% | ― | 86.21% | 51.50% | |
47 Neutral | HK$68.15B | -4.42 | -7.98% | 1.35% | -8.79% | -212.16% | |
40 Underperform | HK$109.32B | -5.74 | -984.82% | ― | 14.73% | 2.81% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9866
NIO Inc. Class A
48.70
22.85
88.39%
HK:0175
Geely Automobile Holdings
23.82
10.12
73.91%
HK:2238
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co
3.10
0.41
15.33%
HK:2333
Great Wall Motor Co
13.45
2.46
22.38%
HK:2015
Li Auto, Inc. Class A
71.80
-9.40
-11.58%
HK:9868
XPeng, Inc. Class A
67.75
0.40
0.59%
NIO Inc. Class A Corporate Events
NIO Nears One Million EV Deliveries After Record 2025 Growth
Jan 1, 2026
NIO Inc., the Chinese smart electric vehicle maker listed in New York, Hong Kong and Singapore, reported record delivery volumes across December, the fourth quarter and full year 2025, underscoring rapid growth across its multi-brand portfolio spa...
NIO Inc. Reports Record Vehicle Deliveries in November 2025
Dec 1, 2025
NIO Inc. reported a significant increase in vehicle deliveries for November 2025, with 36,275 vehicles delivered, marking a 76.3% year-over-year growth. This includes deliveries from its three brands: NIO, ONVO, and FIREFLY. The company’s cu...
NIO Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results with Increased Deliveries and Revenue
Nov 25, 2025
NIO Inc. announced its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting total revenues of RMB21,793.9 million (US$3,061.4 million) and vehicle deliveries of 87,071 units. This represents a significant increase in both revenue a...
NIO Inc. Schedules Board Meeting to Approve Q3 2025 Financial Results
Nov 12, 2025
NIO Inc. has announced that its board of directors will hold a meeting on November 24, 2025, to approve the company’s unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The results will be published the following day, and an earnings...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.