Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited (3868) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$10.31B
• Dividend Yield: 4.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 21.64M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: 3.06%
• EPS Growth: 6.04%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 414
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 8,519,712,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,969,239
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,638,263
• PEG Ratio: -0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.52
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$1.50 ▲(30.43% Upside)

The score is anchored by mixed financial performance: strong profitability and revenue growth are offset by margin compression, rising leverage, and two years of negative free cash flow. Valuation is supportive (low P/E and solid yield), but technical indicators point to weaker near-term momentum.

Positive Factors

High profitability and steady revenue growth

Sustained revenue growth and very high gross and operating margins indicate the business converts solar generation into strong earnings. Over 2–6 months this underpins cash generation potential and competitive positioning despite cyclical irradiation, supporting reinvestment in new projects and resilience versus peers.

Utility-style, contractable revenue model

A utility-like model with metered power sales and potential regulatory incentives creates predictable, long-duration revenue streams. This structural cash flow profile supports long-term project financing, stable underwriting of new capacity and lower revenue volatility versus merchant-generation peers.

Solid equity base relative to assets

A solid equity base provides a defensive capital buffer for project delivery and operating setbacks, improving solvency over the medium term. It helps absorb shocks, supports access to debt markets for growth capex, and reduces immediate refinancing pressure compared with highly equity‑thin developers.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage

Material increase in leverage weakens financial flexibility and raises interest‑cost sensitivity. Over several months this elevates refinancing and covenant risk for new projects, constrains ability to fund expansions internally, and can amplify earnings volatility if rates or cash flows deteriorate.

Margin compression and net income decline

Significant margin erosion reduces the company's ability to turn generation into free cash and shareholder returns. If structural (pricing, subsidy changes, higher O&M) it will impair long‑term ROE and reinvestment capacity, making growth more reliant on external funding rather than internally generated profits.

Sustained negative free cash flow

Two consecutive years of negative free cash flow signal heavy ongoing investment or working capital strain that outpaces operating cash generation. Persisting FCF deficits increase dependency on external capital, heighten refinancing risk, and may pressure dividends or project funding over the medium term.

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, owns, operates, and manages solar farms in the People's Republic of China. The company operates solar farms with an installed capacity of 2,494 megawatts. It sells electricity to the State grid companies. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Wuhu, the People's Republic of China. Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

Xinyi Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity generated from its solar power plants. The company enters into Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with electricity grid operators and commercial customers, ensuring a steady income stream from its renewable energy output. Additionally, Xinyi Energy may benefit from government incentives and subsidies aimed at promoting renewable energy, which can enhance its profitability. The company's strategic partnerships with local governments and energy agencies further bolster its market position, allowing it to expand its project portfolio and optimize operational efficiencies.

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong underlying profitability and a generally growing revenue base, but earnings and margins have compressed, leverage has risen, and free cash flow has been negative for the last two years—reducing financial flexibility despite the stable utility-style model.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown over time (notably strong in 2019 and 2021, with mid-single-digit growth in 2024), and profitability remains very high with strong gross and operating margins. However, margins and earnings have compressed from prior peaks (net margin down from ~54–56% in 2019–2021 to ~32% in 2024, and net income declined in 2024 vs. 2023), indicating a less favorable profit trajectory despite steady top-line growth.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid equity base relative to assets, but leverage has increased meaningfully, with debt-to-equity rising from ~0.20–0.23 (2019–2020) to ~0.66 in 2024. Returns on equity have also stepped down over time (from ~9.8% in 2021 to ~6.3% in 2024), suggesting incremental borrowing has not translated into stronger shareholder returns recently.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is volatile: operating cash flow improved in 2024 versus 2023, but it remains low relative to reported earnings, and free cash flow has been negative for the last two years (2023–2024) after being positive in 2022 and earlier. This pattern suggests elevated ongoing investment needs and raises the risk that funding requirements may rely more on external capital if negative free cash flow persists.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.70B	2.60B	2.52B	2.32B	2.30B	1.72B
Gross Profit	1.74B	1.70B	1.71B	1.63B	1.68B	1.25B
EBITDA	2.39B	2.30B	2.33B	2.14B	2.20B	1.68B
Net Income	939.96M	841.52M	992.99M	971.45M	1.23B	922.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.22B	23.06B	21.13B	19.94B	21.20B	17.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	452.30M	422.88M	702.95M	1.79B	1.10B	1.31B
Total Debt	9.06B	8.84B	7.04B	5.65B	5.60B	2.38B
Total Liabilities	10.26B	9.75B	7.83B	8.18B	8.64B	5.22B
Stockholders Equity	13.97B	13.31B	13.30B	11.75B	12.55B	12.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-798.68M	-1.43B	-1.89B	1.35B	418.04M	642.56M
Operating Cash Flow	1.19B	1.02B	753.13M	2.90B	1.24B	1.11B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.98B	-2.50B	-2.61B	-1.53B	-3.13B	-1.29B
Financing Cash Flow	731.09M	1.18B	735.33M	-576.36M	1.65B	-202.74M

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.15
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:3868, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.18, below the 50-day MA of 1.17, and below the 200-day MA of 1.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:3868.

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
0579	75 Outperform	HK$19.21B	5.67	9.87%	6.71%	2.90%	1.23%
1250	69 Neutral	HK$4.00B	―	―	―	―	―
0686	68 Neutral	HK$2.60B	10.66	4.37%	8.85%	24.56%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
0182	65 Neutral	HK$2.48B	4.01	6.80%	10.94%	-16.17%	-31.65%
3868	64 Neutral	HK$10.31B	11.48	―	4.83%	3.06%	6.04%
1798	60 Neutral	HK$15.20B	7.52	9.90%	6.26%	2.47%	-6.46%

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited Corporate Events

Xinyi Group Clarifies Valuation Basis for Jinzhai Wind Power Equity Deal

Xinyi Glass, Xinyi Electric Storage, Xinyi Energy and Xinyi Solar have issued a supplemental joint announcement clarifying valuation details for the connected transaction involving the sale and purchase of the equity interest in Jinzhai Wind Power. The companies disclosed that an independent valuer, Graval Consulting Limited, used a discounted cash flow method under the income approach—treated as a profit forecast under Hong Kong Listing Rules—to determine the value of the wind power asset as of 31 October 2025, with Ernst & Young reviewing the arithmetic accuracy of the forecast and confirming its consent for inclusion in the announcement. The valuation is based on a free cash flow to the firm model projecting cash flows to 2037, aligned with the 20‑year design life of the wind farm’s turbines, providing investors and stakeholders with greater transparency on the pricing basis and regulatory compliance of this intra‑group renewable energy transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3868) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited stock, see the HK:3868 Stock Forecast page.

Xinyi Group Units Reallocate Stake in Jinzai Wind Power via Connected Transaction

Xinyi Energy Holdings, together with related Xinyi group entities Xinyi Glass, Xinyi Solar and Xinyi Electric Storage, has entered into an equity transfer agreement under which XYE (Fanchang) will acquire an equity interest in Jinzai Wind Power from XYG (Wuhu) and XES Anhui Power. The transaction, executed after market close on 23 December 2025, formalises an intra‑group reallocation of ownership in the wind power asset within the Xinyi group’s network of energy businesses.
Under Hong Kong’s Listing Rules and the GEM Listing Rules, the deal is classified as a connected transaction for Xinyi Glass, Xinyi Energy, Xinyi Solar and Xinyi Electric Storage because of their shared controlling shareholders and cross-holdings. As the relevant percentage ratios for both the acquisition and disposal fall between 0.1 per cent and 5 per cent, the transaction will be subject only to reporting and announcement requirements and is exempt from circular and independent shareholders’ approval, streamlining execution while still providing disclosure to investors about the realignment of the group’s wind power interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3868) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited stock, see the HK:3868 Stock Forecast page.

Xinyi Energy and Xinyi Solar Announce Equity Disposal in Tianjin Solar Venture

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited and Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited have jointly announced the disposal of 51% equity interest in Xinyi Solar (Tianjin), leveraging qualitative and quantitative factors to evaluate the transaction. This move supports operational efficiency in their Tianjin solar farm while maintaining strategic control over dividends and service revenue, with potential implications for the stakeholders, including enhanced asset management and access to state-owned capabilities through the purchaser partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3868) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited stock, see the HK:3868 Stock Forecast page.

Xinyi Energy and Xinyi Solar Announce Equity Disposal

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited and Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited have announced a discloseable transaction involving the disposal of a 51% equity interest in Xinyi Solar (Tianjin). The transaction is valued at RMB514.59 million and will result in Xinyi Solar (Tianjin) ceasing to be a subsidiary of Xinyi Energy and a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Xinyi Solar. This move is subject to the notification and announcement requirements under the Listing Rules and will impact the accounting treatment of the remaining interests in Xinyi Solar (Tianjin), which will now be accounted for using the equity method.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3868) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited stock, see the HK:3868 Stock Forecast page.