Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H (2611) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$375.79B
• Dividend Yield: 2.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 12.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.29
• Revenue Growth: 52.67%
• EPS Growth: 121.43%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 14,523
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 3,505,759,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,720,422
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 12,246,649
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 13.72
• Revenue Forecast (FY): HK$511.84B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$20.00 ▲(32.89% Upside)

The score is driven by solid profitability and generally supportive cash conversion, plus an attractive valuation (low P/E and dividend yield). These positives are tempered by a stretched technical setup (RSI/Stoch elevated) and fundamental cyclicality risks from volatile revenue, leverage, and a negative swing in free cash flow in 2024.

Positive Factors

Profitability / Net margins

Sustained high net margins (~27%–36%) indicate strong pricing power and expense control in core businesses. This margin resilience supports earnings stability across market cycles, enabling reinvestment and shareholder returns even when top-line growth is uneven.

Diversified business model

A multi-line capital markets franchise spreads revenue sources across brokerage, IB, trading and asset management. This structural diversification reduces reliance on any single revenue stream and improves resilience to sector-specific shocks over a multi-month horizon.

Historic cash conversion

Consistent historic FCF-to-income conversion reflects earnings quality and supports internal funding for operations, dividends or investments. Reliable cash conversion enhances financial flexibility and underpins long-term capital allocation despite episodic swings.

Negative Factors

Revenue volatility and cyclicality

Material top-line volatility reduces visibility for earnings and planning. As a capital-markets firm, fee and trading income depend on market cycles; persistent revenue swings complicate forecasting and make sustained growth targets harder to achieve over a 2–6 month horizon.

Meaningful leverage

Relatively high debt-to-equity increases financial sensitivity to revenue shocks and market stress. Leverage can amplify returns in good times but constrains flexibility, heightens refinancing risk and can pressure capital ratios during downturns, limiting strategic optionality.

Free cash flow deterioration in 2024

A notable FCF decline in 2024 signals potential working-capital strain or mark-to-market impacts on trading assets. Negative FCF erodes buffers for dividends, buybacks or investment, and increases reliance on external funding, raising medium-term liquidity and policy risks.

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H (2611) is a leading comprehensive securities company based in China, engaged in providing a wide range of financial services. The company operates across various sectors including brokerage, wealth management, investment banking, and asset management. Guotai Junan Securities is well-regarded for its robust network and diversified service offerings, catering to both individual and institutional clients domestically and internationally.

How the Company Makes Money

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. generates revenue through multiple streams within the financial services sector. The company's primary revenue sources include brokerage fees from facilitating trades for clients in equity, debt, and derivative markets. In wealth management, it earns through advisory fees and commissions on products sold to high-net-worth individuals and retail clients. The investment banking division contributes to revenue through underwriting fees, advisory services for mergers and acquisitions, and capital raising activities. Additionally, the asset management arm earns management and performance fees from managing investment funds and portfolios. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions and corporations further augment their earnings by expanding their service reach and client base.

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Guotai Junan Securities demonstrates strong financial health, with impressive revenue growth, a solid balance sheet free of debt, and robust cash flow generation. The company's profitability has improved, as evidenced by the increasing net profit margin and ROE. However, the lack of detailed EBIT and EBITDA data limits deeper profitability analysis. The company's substantial liquidity position and strong cash flow metrics suggest it is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities and weather financial uncertainties.

Income Statement

Guotai Junan Securities has shown a strong revenue growth trend with revenues increasing from 35.13 billion CNY in 2023 to 43.10 billion CNY in 2024, a growth rate of 22.67%. The Gross Profit Margin remains robust as gross profit consistently matches total revenue due to the nature of the industry. The net profit margin improved slightly from 26.68% in 2023 to 30.22% in 2024, indicating improved profitability. However, the absence of EBIT and EBITDA margins in the latest report limits the depth of profitability analysis.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong balance sheet with zero debt reported in 2024, resulting in an excellent debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is stable at approximately 16.30% in 2024, suggesting a solid capital structure. Return on Equity (ROE) improved significantly to 7.63% in 2024 from 5.61% in 2023, reflecting enhanced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The substantial increase in cash and short-term investments to 414.37 billion CNY bolsters liquidity.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a robust operating cash flow of 56.11 billion CNY in 2024, significantly up from 7.20 billion CNY in 2023. Free cash flow also grew substantially to 54.95 billion CNY. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is exceptionally high at 4.31, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is also strong at 4.22, showcasing efficient cash management despite the lack of year-on-year free cash flow growth rate data.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	72.97B	42.35B	48.60B	45.54B	52.41B	33.89B
Gross Profit	57.21B	42.35B	35.76B	34.72B	42.25B	33.89B
EBITDA	28.83B	0.00	13.55B	15.35B	20.25B	0.00
Net Income	23.75B	13.02B	9.37B	11.51B	15.01B	11.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.80T	1.05T	925.40B	860.69B	791.27B	702.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	714.84B	883.49B	326.54B	343.07B	339.64B	299.49B
Total Debt	418.29B	198.28B	179.18B	166.79B	191.18B	73.67B
Total Liabilities	1.47T	870.27B	752.02B	696.86B	640.64B	556.66B
Stockholders Equity	321.38B	170.78B	166.97B	157.70B	147.12B	137.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	68.92B	54.95B	6.04B	48.95B	9.51B	21.43B
Operating Cash Flow	70.21B	56.11B	7.20B	50.73B	10.37B	22.23B
Investing Cash Flow	151.57B	-22.66B	-26.26B	-11.52B	-33.72B	-22.38B
Financing Cash Flow	2.70B	7.51B	5.94B	-34.64B	28.44B	38.08B

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 15.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2611, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.21, below the 50-day MA of 16.42, and above the 200-day MA of 14.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HK:2611.

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6886	70 Outperform	HK$219.91B	9.34	10.50%	2.92%	10.82%	55.25%
2611	69 Neutral	HK$375.79B	8.01	9.99%	2.75%	52.67%	121.43%
3908	68 Neutral	HK$154.52B	10.06	8.93%	0.97%	64.00%	112.84%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
6099	65 Neutral	HK$158.80B	11.76	9.41%	3.83%	51.04%	24.56%
6030	62 Neutral	HK$454.70B	16.21	10.17%	2.05%	62.72%	29.18%
6066	60 Neutral	HK$198.32B	11.57	13.03%	2.80%	36.57%	77.14%

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H Corporate Events

Guotai Haitong Securities Reports Poll Results and Strong Turnout at 2025 Second EGM

Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. held its second extraordinary general meeting of 2025 in Shanghai on 29 December, confirming that the meeting was convened in full compliance with PRC laws, regulations and the company’s Articles of Association. The board, including executive, non-executive, independent non-executive and employee directors, as well as senior management, attended, and voting on the submitted ordinary resolution was conducted by poll through both onsite and online channels, with independent scrutineers overseeing the process. After excluding repurchased shares without voting rights and applying required abstentions by substantial shareholder International Group and Shanghai Industrial on the key resolution, 13.87 billion shares were eligible to vote, and 2,954 shareholders and proxies representing about 49.9% of the company’s voting share capital participated, underscoring robust shareholder engagement and adherence to corporate governance norms.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Junan Securities to Hold EGM for Key Agreement Renewal

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. has announced an extraordinary general meeting to be held on December 29, 2025, to discuss the renewal of the New Framework Agreement with HuaAn Funds. This resolution, if approved, could impact the company’s operations by reinforcing its strategic partnerships and potentially enhancing its market positioning within the securities and financial services sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Haitong Securities Delays Circular Dispatch for Framework Agreement

Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. announced a delay in the dispatch of a circular related to the renewal of the New Framework Agreement for securities and financial products transactions with HuaAn Funds. The circular, which includes important details about the agreement and transactions, was initially expected by November 20, 2025, but will now be dispatched by December 11, 2025. This delay indicates the company’s need for additional time to finalize the necessary information, potentially impacting shareholder expectations and the timeline for the agreement’s implementation.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Junan Securities Reports Significant Asset Impairment Provision

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. announced a provision for impairment of assets totaling RMB2,382.95 million for the period from January to September 2025. This provision, which includes credit loss expenses and impairment losses on other assets, has significantly impacted the company’s financials, reducing profit before income tax by the same amount and net profit attributable to equity holders by RMB1,718.93 million. The impairment is primarily due to the leasing business added through the merger with Haitong Securities Co., Ltd., which has maintained stable development and asset quality despite the increased provisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Haitong Securities Releases 2025 Q3 Report Emphasizing Transparency

Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. has released its unaudited third quarterly report for 2025, prepared according to the China Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises. The company emphasizes the accuracy and completeness of the report, with its board and directors assuming responsibility for its contents. This announcement highlights the company’s commitment to transparency and accountability in its financial reporting, potentially strengthening its position in the financial services industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Junan Securities Renews Framework Agreement with International Group

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. has announced the renewal of its New Framework Agreement with International Group, extending their collaboration from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028. This agreement allows both parties to continue conducting securities and financial transactions, providing products and services under normal commercial terms. The transactions are classified as continuing connected transactions under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules, subject to reporting and annual review requirements but exempt from independent shareholders’ approval.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Junan Securities Renews Framework Agreement with HuaAn Funds

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. has announced the renewal of its framework agreement with HuaAn Funds for securities and financial products transactions and services. The agreement, set to commence on January 1, 2026, and end on December 31, 2028, aims to continue the ongoing business relationship between the two entities. The renewal is pending approval from independent shareholders and will be subject to specific reporting and review requirements under the Listing Rules. The company has established an Independent Board Committee and appointed an Independent Financial Adviser to evaluate the agreement and its implications.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Haitong Securities to Review Q3 Financial Results

Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. has announced that its board of directors will convene on October 30, 2025, to review and approve the unaudited financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025. This meeting is crucial for stakeholders as it will provide insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.