Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H (2611) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$333.65B
• Dividend Yield: 2.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 12.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: 52.67%
• EPS Growth: 121.43%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 14,523
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 3,505,759,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,720,422
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 12,246,649
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): HK$76.45B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$18.00 ▲(19.60% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 01/07/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 01/07/26

The score is driven by solid profitability and generally supportive cash conversion, plus an attractive valuation (low P/E and dividend yield). These positives are tempered by a stretched technical setup (RSI/Stoch elevated) and fundamental cyclicality risks from volatile revenue, leverage, and a negative swing in free cash flow in 2024.

Positive Factors

Profitability

Sustained high net margins and a 2024 net income rebound indicate structural earnings strength across businesses. Durable profitability supports capital for underwriting, technology and talent, cushioning the firm through cyclical revenue swings and enabling reinvestment in core franchises.

Cash Conversion

Free cash flow historically tracking near net income implies quality earnings and reliable internal funding. Strong cash conversion reduces dependence on external financing for payouts, capital needs, or market-making capital, supporting strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Balance Sheet Scale

A large, steadily growing equity base and sizable balance sheet improve capacity to underwrite deals, hold inventories, and withstand market stress. Scale supports regulatory capital needs and institutional client relationships, reinforcing competitive positioning in capital markets.

Negative Factors

Revenue Volatility

Top-line swings and recent multi-year declines reflect structural cyclicality in underwriting, trading and fee businesses. Persistent revenue volatility reduces forecasting visibility, complicates resource allocation and can pressure margins and investment plans during prolonged market slowdowns.

Leverage

Meaningful balance-sheet gearing raises sensitivity to market shocks and interest-cost shifts. Elevated leverage can constrain strategic flexibility, amplify losses in volatile markets, and heighten regulatory or capital-raising needs, particularly if revenue or trading income weakens.

Free Cash Flow Weakness

A swing to negative free cash flow and inconsistent OCF coverage undermines cash reliability and the quality of reported earnings. This may force higher reliance on debt, asset disposals, or capital-raising, limiting ability to fund growth initiatives, dividends or absorb shocks.

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H (2611) is a leading comprehensive securities company based in China, engaged in providing a wide range of financial services. The company operates across various sectors including brokerage, wealth management, investment banking, and asset management. Guotai Junan Securities is well-regarded for its robust network and diversified service offerings, catering to both individual and institutional clients domestically and internationally.

How the Company Makes Money

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. generates revenue through multiple streams within the financial services sector. The company's primary revenue sources include brokerage fees from facilitating trades for clients in equity, debt, and derivative markets. In wealth management, it earns through advisory fees and commissions on products sold to high-net-worth individuals and retail clients. The investment banking division contributes to revenue through underwriting fees, advisory services for mergers and acquisitions, and capital raising activities. Additionally, the asset management arm earns management and performance fees from managing investment funds and portfolios. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions and corporations further augment their earnings by expanding their service reach and client base.

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is a clear strength with robust net margins (~27%–36%) and net income rebounding in 2024, supported by generally solid cash conversion (FCF ~0.84–0.98x net income most years). Offsetting this, revenue has been volatile with declines in the last two years, leverage is meaningful (debt-to-equity ~1.16 in 2024), and free cash flow turned notably negative in 2024.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile, with growth swinging from strong expansion (2019–2021) to declines (2022 and 2024). Profitability remains a clear strength: net profit margins stayed robust (~27%–36%) across the period, and net income in 2024 rebounded versus 2023 despite lower revenue. Offsetting this, operating profitability trends look less consistent based on the provided operating profit figures, and the top-line softness in the last two years reduces earnings visibility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is sizable and generally stable, with equity steadily rising over time, supporting resilience. Returns on equity are moderate for the sector (about 6%–10%), improving in 2024 versus 2023. The key constraint is leverage: debt-to-equity sits around ~1.16 in 2024 (and roughly ~1.06–1.30 historically), indicating meaningful balance-sheet gearing that can amplify results in weaker markets.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative positive: free cash flow has closely tracked net income most years (about ~0.84–0.98x), suggesting earnings are generally supported by cash. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent and turned notably negative in 2024, and operating cash flow coverage is uneven (including very low/zero readings in some years), pointing to potential working-capital or market-driven swings typical for capital markets businesses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	72.97B	42.35B	48.60B	45.54B	52.41B	33.89B
Gross Profit	57.21B	42.35B	35.76B	34.72B	42.25B	33.89B
EBITDA	28.83B	0.00	13.55B	15.35B	20.25B	0.00
Net Income	23.75B	13.02B	9.37B	11.51B	15.01B	11.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.80T	1.05T	925.40B	860.69B	791.27B	702.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	714.84B	883.49B	326.54B	343.07B	339.64B	299.49B
Total Debt	418.29B	198.28B	179.18B	166.79B	191.18B	73.67B
Total Liabilities	1.47T	870.27B	752.02B	696.86B	640.64B	556.66B
Stockholders Equity	321.38B	170.78B	166.97B	157.70B	147.12B	137.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	68.92B	54.95B	6.04B	48.95B	9.51B	21.43B
Operating Cash Flow	70.21B	56.11B	7.20B	50.73B	10.37B	22.23B
Investing Cash Flow	151.57B	-22.66B	-26.26B	-11.52B	-33.72B	-22.38B
Financing Cash Flow	2.70B	7.51B	5.94B	-34.64B	28.44B	38.08B

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2611, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.83, below the 50-day MA of 16.66, and below the 200-day MA of 15.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.04 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2611.

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2611	69 Neutral	HK$333.65B	8.68	9.07%	2.75%	52.67%	121.43%
3908	68 Neutral	HK$147.13B	10.56	8.83%	0.97%	64.00%	112.84%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
6886	67 Neutral	HK$188.11B	8.90	8.20%	2.92%	10.82%	55.25%
6099	65 Neutral	HK$150.69B	10.37	9.55%	3.83%	51.04%	24.56%
6030	62 Neutral	HK$438.83B	11.74	10.18%	2.05%	62.72%	29.18%
6066	60 Neutral	HK$183.16B	9.72	10.64%	2.80%	36.57%	77.14%

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H Corporate Events

Guotai Haitong Securities Reports Poll Results and Strong Turnout at 2025 Second EGM

Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. held its second extraordinary general meeting of 2025 in Shanghai on 29 December, confirming that the meeting was convened in full compliance with PRC laws, regulations and the company’s Articles of Association. The board, including executive, non-executive, independent non-executive and employee directors, as well as senior management, attended, and voting on the submitted ordinary resolution was conducted by poll through both onsite and online channels, with independent scrutineers overseeing the process. After excluding repurchased shares without voting rights and applying required abstentions by substantial shareholder International Group and Shanghai Industrial on the key resolution, 13.87 billion shares were eligible to vote, and 2,954 shareholders and proxies representing about 49.9% of the company’s voting share capital participated, underscoring robust shareholder engagement and adherence to corporate governance norms.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Junan Securities to Hold EGM for Key Agreement Renewal

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. has announced an extraordinary general meeting to be held on December 29, 2025, to discuss the renewal of the New Framework Agreement with HuaAn Funds. This resolution, if approved, could impact the company’s operations by reinforcing its strategic partnerships and potentially enhancing its market positioning within the securities and financial services sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Haitong Securities Delays Circular Dispatch for Framework Agreement

Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. announced a delay in the dispatch of a circular related to the renewal of the New Framework Agreement for securities and financial products transactions with HuaAn Funds. The circular, which includes important details about the agreement and transactions, was initially expected by November 20, 2025, but will now be dispatched by December 11, 2025. This delay indicates the company’s need for additional time to finalize the necessary information, potentially impacting shareholder expectations and the timeline for the agreement’s implementation.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Junan Securities Reports Significant Asset Impairment Provision

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. announced a provision for impairment of assets totaling RMB2,382.95 million for the period from January to September 2025. This provision, which includes credit loss expenses and impairment losses on other assets, has significantly impacted the company’s financials, reducing profit before income tax by the same amount and net profit attributable to equity holders by RMB1,718.93 million. The impairment is primarily due to the leasing business added through the merger with Haitong Securities Co., Ltd., which has maintained stable development and asset quality despite the increased provisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Haitong Securities Releases 2025 Q3 Report Emphasizing Transparency

Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. has released its unaudited third quarterly report for 2025, prepared according to the China Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises. The company emphasizes the accuracy and completeness of the report, with its board and directors assuming responsibility for its contents. This announcement highlights the company’s commitment to transparency and accountability in its financial reporting, potentially strengthening its position in the financial services industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Junan Securities Renews Framework Agreement with International Group

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. has announced the renewal of its New Framework Agreement with International Group, extending their collaboration from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028. This agreement allows both parties to continue conducting securities and financial transactions, providing products and services under normal commercial terms. The transactions are classified as continuing connected transactions under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules, subject to reporting and annual review requirements but exempt from independent shareholders’ approval.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.

Guotai Junan Securities Renews Framework Agreement with HuaAn Funds

Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. has announced the renewal of its framework agreement with HuaAn Funds for securities and financial products transactions and services. The agreement, set to commence on January 1, 2026, and end on December 31, 2028, aims to continue the ongoing business relationship between the two entities. The renewal is pending approval from independent shareholders and will be subject to specific reporting and review requirements under the Listing Rules. The company has established an Independent Board Committee and appointed an Independent Financial Adviser to evaluate the agreement and its implications.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2611) stock is a Buy with a HK$14.61 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:2611 Stock Forecast page.