Heineken (HEINY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $44.70B
• Dividend Yield: 2.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.39
• Revenue Growth: -4.32%
• EPS Growth: 74.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 89,264
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 1.21
• Shares Outstanding: 1,152,005,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,215
• PEG Ratio: -0.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.48
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $45.00 ▲(12.58% Upside)

Heineken's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, indicating robust profit growth and strategic progress. However, valuation concerns and technical neutrality slightly temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisition

The acquisition of FIFCO's beverage portfolio enhances Heineken's market position in Costa Rica, expanding its premium product offerings and retail network. This strategic move aligns with Heineken's EverGreen strategy, driving growth in high-potential markets and strengthening its global footprint.

Sustainability Initiatives

Heineken's commitment to sustainability and diversity enhances its brand reputation and operational efficiency. Achieving net zero carbon targets and improving water efficiency can lead to cost savings and increased consumer loyalty, supporting long-term business resilience.

Strong Financial Stability

Heineken's zero-debt position and strong cash reserves provide financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns. This financial stability supports strategic initiatives and enhances the company's ability to sustain operations over the long term.

Negative Factors

Decline in Beer Volume

The decline in beer volume, particularly in Europe, indicates challenges in maintaining market share and consumer demand. Prolonged retail negotiations can impact revenue and profitability, posing a risk to Heineken's growth trajectory if not addressed.

Currency and Tariff Challenges

Currency fluctuations and import tariffs can erode profit margins and increase costs, affecting Heineken's competitive position. These external factors may limit pricing flexibility and require strategic adjustments to mitigate financial impacts.

Operational Issues in Europe

Operational challenges in Europe, including extended customer negotiations, have led to a decline in operating profit. This situation highlights potential inefficiencies and market pressures that could hinder Heineken's ability to capitalize on growth opportunities in the region.

Heineken Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heineken N.V. is a global brewing company headquartered in Amsterdam, Netherlands. Established in 1864, it operates in the beverage sector, primarily focusing on the production and distribution of beer. Heineken is renowned for its flagship lager, Heineken, as well as a diverse portfolio of over 300 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders. The company operates in more than 70 countries and sells its products in over 190 markets, making it one of the largest and most recognized beer brands in the world.

How the Company Makes Money

Heineken generates revenue primarily through the sale of beer and cider, with its revenue model based on the production, distribution, and marketing of alcoholic beverages. Key revenue streams include sales from its flagship brands such as Heineken, Amstel, and Desperados, as well as from regional and local brands tailored to specific markets. The company benefits from significant economies of scale, with a vast global footprint that allows it to optimize production and distribution costs. Heineken also engages in strategic partnerships with distributors and retailers to enhance its market reach and visibility. Seasonal promotions, sponsorships, and marketing campaigns further drive sales, especially during major sports events and festivals. Additionally, Heineken invests in innovation and sustainability initiatives, which can lead to cost savings and improved consumer loyalty, contributing to its overall earnings.

Heineken Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Heineken demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and effective cost management, as evidenced by healthy gross profit margins and strong EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, challenges in net income and profitability margins indicate areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Heineken shows a strong financial performance with a consistent revenue growth trajectory over the past years, despite a slight revenue drop in the latest period. The gross profit margin is healthy, and the company maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency. However, a noteworthy decline in net income affects the net profit margin, suggesting potential challenges in the bottom-line profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a high level of cash and equivalents, and the total debt has been significantly reduced to zero, enhancing the company's financial stability. The equity ratio is solid, reflecting a strong capital structure. However, the return on equity has seen a downturn due to lower net income, which could impact investor returns.

Cash Flow

Heineken's cash flow position is strong, with operating cash flow increasing, indicating good cash generation from operations. The free cash flow has grown significantly, reflecting effective capital expenditure management. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash generation is outpacing net income, which might suggest non-cash adjustments affecting profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	29.18B	29.82B	30.36B	28.72B	21.94B	19.71B
Gross Profit	10.30B	10.51B	10.70B	11.36B	8.57B	7.15B
EBITDA	6.09B	5.29B	5.15B	6.41B	6.39B	2.59B
Net Income	1.82B	978.00M	2.30B	2.68B	3.32B	-204.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	51.63B	53.77B	55.15B	53.42B	49.82B	43.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.07B	2.35B	2.38B	2.77B	3.25B	4.00B
Total Debt	0.00	17.05B	18.24B	16.38B	16.87B	18.20B
Total Liabilities	31.40B	31.37B	32.36B	31.50B	30.12B	29.12B
Stockholders Equity	17.71B	19.58B	20.06B	19.55B	17.36B	13.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.71B	3.04B	1.75B	2.48B	2.58B	1.50B
Operating Cash Flow	5.25B	5.50B	4.43B	4.50B	4.18B	3.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.63B	-2.44B	-3.58B	-2.29B	-2.29B	-1.44B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.60B	-2.57B	-816.00M	-3.13B	-2.87B	1.24B

Heineken Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HEINY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.18, below the 50-day MA of 40.30, and below the 200-day MA of 41.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HEINY.

Heineken Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABEV	80 Outperform	$41.38B	14.39	15.97%	8.22%	-0.68%	4.29%
HEINY	78 Outperform	$44.70B	22.51	9.49%	2.04%	-4.32%	74.30%
BUD	75 Outperform	$136.03B	19.04	8.97%	1.83%	-2.06%	21.03%
CCU	70 Outperform	$2.60B	18.21	9.07%	2.53%	16.59%	1.72%
FMX	65 Neutral	$20.95B	45.37	5.48%	4.33%	1.44%	-38.87%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
TAP	53 Neutral	$9.69B	-4.59	-17.66%	4.08%	-4.01%	-339.22%