Heineken (HEINY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $51.15B
• Dividend Yield: 2.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: -4.32%
• EPS Growth: 74.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 89,264
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 1.60
• Shares Outstanding: 1,152,005,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,215
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.06
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $49.00 ▲(22.59% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by steady (but not peak) financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook with reiterated profit-growth guidance. These positives are tempered by stretched technical momentum that raises pullback risk and a valuation that looks only moderately attractive (P/E ~24 with a modest ~1.78% yield).

Positive Factors

Global brand strength & premiumization

A growing Heineken-brand volume and emphasis on premium offerings indicate durable brand equity and pricing power. Premiumization supports higher net revenue per liter, helps defend margins over cycles, and sustains retailer/on-trade support across markets long-term.

Consistent cash generation

Strong OCF and multi-billion free cash flow provide structural flexibility to fund brand investment, M&A, capex, and shareholder returns. Reliable cash conversion across cycles supports debt service and enables strategic reallocation during slower revenue periods.

Emerging-market growth & strategic M&A

Material growth in APAC/AME and the FIFCO acquisition deepen distribution and local-market scale in faster-growing regions. Strengthened footprint in growth markets diversifies revenue mix and creates long-term compounding opportunities beyond slower European demand.

Negative Factors

Rising financial leverage

Leverage moving toward parity with equity reduces financial flexibility and increases interest sensitivity. Higher debt levels constrain capital allocation during downturns and raise refinancing and covenant risks, making funded growth and buybacks more expensive.

Compressed net margins vs prior peaks

Substantially lower net margins versus recent peaks point to structural cost, tax, or below-the-line pressures. Persistent margin gap limits retained earnings, reduces reinvestment capacity, and pressures returns unless cost or pricing initiatives sustainably restore profitability.

Executive leadership transition

A planned CEO departure during a strategic transformation introduces execution risk. Succession uncertainty can slow decision-making on EverGreen 2030, productivity plans and M&A integration, affecting medium-term delivery of promised savings and growth targets.

Heineken Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heineken N.V. engages in the brewing and selling of beer and cider. It also provides soft drinks and water. It offers its beers under the Heineken, Amstel, Desperados, Sol, Tiger, Birra Moretti, Affligem, Lagunitas, and Mort Subite brands, as well as under various other regional and local brands; and cider under the Strongbow Apple Ciders, Orchard Thieves, Follow The Fox, Cidrerie Stassen, Bulmers, Old Mout, and Blind Pig brands. The company offers its products to retailers, bars, pubs, hotels, and restaurants in Europe, Americas, Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the Asia Pacific markets. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken N.V. is a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V.

How the Company Makes Money

Heineken generates revenue primarily through the sale of beer and cider, with its revenue model based on the production, distribution, and marketing of alcoholic beverages. Key revenue streams include sales from its flagship brands such as Heineken, Amstel, and Desperados, as well as from regional and local brands tailored to specific markets. The company benefits from significant economies of scale, with a vast global footprint that allows it to optimize production and distribution costs. Heineken also engages in strategic partnerships with distributors and retailers to enhance its market reach and visibility. Seasonal promotions, sponsorships, and marketing campaigns further drive sales, especially during major sports events and festivals. Additionally, Heineken invests in innovation and sustainability initiatives, which can lead to cost savings and improved consumer loyalty, contributing to its overall earnings.

Heineken Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are solid but not peak: revenue has softened recently and net margin remains below 2021–2023 levels, while leverage has risen (debt-to-equity ~1.07). Offsetting this, 2025 showed a notable earnings rebound and operating/free cash flow remain strong (~€5.0B OCF; ~€2.6B FCF).

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly stable but has recently softened (2025 down ~1.5% after a flat-to-down 2024). Profitability is mixed: gross margin has held in the mid-30% range, but net margin remains well below the 2021–2023 levels (about 6.3% in 2025 vs. ~9.3% in 2022 and ~15.1% in 2021), indicating higher costs, taxes, or below-the-line pressure. A positive is the sharp earnings rebound in 2025 versus 2024, but overall margins are still not back to prior peaks.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful, with debt running around equity (debt-to-equity ~1.07 in 2025, up from ~0.87 in 2024), which reduces flexibility if operating conditions weaken. The equity base is sizable and return on equity improved to ~10.1% in 2025 (from ~5.0% in 2024), but it remains below the stronger 2021–2022 returns. Overall, the balance sheet is workable for a large brewer, though rising leverage is a key watch item.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow was ~€5.0B and free cash flow ~€2.6B in 2025. However, free cash flow declined in 2025 (about -3.7% vs. 2024), and free cash flow is only about half of net income in 2025, suggesting less conversion of earnings into discretionary cash than ideal. Still, the business has shown an ability to produce consistent free cash flow across cycles, supporting debt service and shareholder returns.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.75B	29.82B	30.36B	28.72B	21.94B
Gross Profit	10.29B	10.51B	10.70B	11.36B	8.57B
EBITDA	5.80B	5.29B	5.15B	6.41B	6.39B
Net Income	1.89B	978.00M	2.30B	2.68B	3.32B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	53.75B	53.77B	55.15B	53.42B	49.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.77B	2.35B	2.38B	2.77B	3.25B
Total Debt	19.28B	17.05B	18.24B	16.38B	16.87B
Total Liabilities	33.14B	31.37B	32.36B	31.50B	30.12B
Stockholders Equity	17.98B	19.58B	20.06B	19.55B	17.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.61B	3.04B	1.75B	2.48B	2.58B
Operating Cash Flow	5.01B	5.50B	4.43B	4.50B	4.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.46B	-2.44B	-3.58B	-2.29B	-2.29B
Financing Cash Flow	153.00M	-2.57B	-816.00M	-3.13B	-2.87B

Heineken Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.97
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HEINY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.36, below the 50-day MA of 41.45, and below the 200-day MA of 41.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HEINY.

Heineken Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABEV	80 Outperform	$48.78B	17.16	17.42%	8.22%	-0.68%	4.29%
CCU	70 Outperform	$2.59B	18.67	9.07%	2.53%	16.59%	1.72%
BUD	68 Neutral	$157.54B	22.82	8.29%	1.83%	-2.06%	21.03%
FMX	65 Neutral	$22.59B	50.59	5.48%	4.33%	1.44%	-38.87%
HEINY	63 Neutral	$51.15B	23.81	9.49%	2.04%	-4.32%	74.30%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
TAP	54 Neutral	$10.07B	-4.46	-18.35%	4.08%	-4.01%	-339.22%