HCA Healthcare (HCA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $82.15B
• Dividend Yield: 0.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.38M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 6.37%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 226,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 37
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 6.84
• Shares Outstanding: 240,573,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,433,041
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,379,684
• PEG Ratio: -0.76
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.75
• 1Y Price Target: $394.09
• Price Target Upside: 17.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $366.00 ▲(9.48%Upside)

HCA Healthcare's overall stock score is primarily driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, which are countered by technical analysis showing bearish momentum. Strategic corporate actions add a positive aspect to the outlook, but high leverage remains a key risk factor.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

The company demonstrated strong cost controls with lower-than-expected labor costs and operating expenses.

Earnings

HCA reported results that beat consensus EBITDA estimates by approximately 4%, showcasing its strong financial performance.

Market Position

HCA has lower exposure to the headwinds from the recent Reconciliation Bill compared to some peers, and its scale should help it mitigate these challenges better than most.

Negative Factors

EBITDA Pressure

Coverage reductions and Medicaid cuts are expected to put increasing pressure on EBITDA through 2030, averaging a 2% headwind to EBITDA growth per year.

Growth Outlook

HCA's future growth rates are expected to be reduced by an annual headwind of about 2% through 2030 due to additional cuts, including those to state-directed payment programs.

Policy Impact

The recently passed Reconciliation Bill is causing headwinds from cuts to Medicaid and ACA exchanges, leading to expected reductions in volumes and higher bad debt.

HCA Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HCA Healthcare (HCA) is a leading provider of healthcare services, operating a comprehensive network of hospitals, surgery centers, and urgent care facilities across the United States and the United Kingdom. The company focuses on offering a wide range of medical services, including inpatient and outpatient care, emergency services, and specialized medical procedures. HCA Healthcare is committed to delivering high-quality patient care and improving healthcare outcomes through its extensive array of healthcare facilities and innovative service offerings.

How the Company Makes Money

HCA Healthcare generates revenue primarily through the provision of healthcare services across its network of facilities. The company earns money by billing patients, insurers, and government programs like Medicare and Medicaid for services rendered, including hospital stays, surgeries, emergency room visits, and outpatient services. Key revenue streams include patient service revenues from acute care hospitals, which form the bulk of its income, as well as revenues from outpatient and ancillary services. HCA Healthcare also benefits from strategic partnerships and affiliations with other healthcare providers and insurers, enhancing its service delivery and patient access. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as healthcare reimbursement rates, patient volume, and the overall demand for medical services.

HCA Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

HCA Healthcare exhibits strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, as seen in its steady income statement performance and robust cash flow management. However, the high leverage on the balance sheet poses a significant risk.

Income Statement

HCA Healthcare has demonstrated steady revenue growth over the past few years, with a notable increase from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin remains robust, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin and EBIT margins have been consistent, although there was a slight dip in net income. The EBITDA margin indicates strong operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a healthy financial trajectory, although potential risks include slight fluctuations in net income.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, which poses a significant financial risk, as it indicates a reliance on debt financing. However, the company maintains substantial total assets. Return on equity is not applicable due to negative equity, but total liabilities as a percentage of total assets have been stable. The balance sheet reflects adequate asset management with risks associated with leverage.

Cash Flow

HCA Healthcare's cash flow analysis shows positive free cash flow growth, despite fluctuations in capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has been strong, underscoring efficient cash generation from operations. However, free cash flow to net income ratio declined recently, which could indicate increased investment activities. Overall, the company exhibits strong cash flow management, supporting its operations and investments.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	70.60B	64.97B	60.23B	58.75B	51.53B
Gross Profit	28.68B	9.63B	50.86B	49.27B	43.16B
EBITDA	13.90B	12.72B	13.29B	14.25B	9.73B
Net Income	5.76B	5.24B	5.64B	6.96B	3.75B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	59.51B	56.21B	52.44B	50.74B	47.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.02B	1.02B	1.00B	1.55B	1.91B
Total Debt	45.24B	41.86B	40.20B	36.73B	33.06B
Total Liabilities	58.96B	55.15B	52.51B	49.25B	44.60B
Stockholders Equity	-2.50B	-1.77B	-2.77B	-933.00M	572.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.64B	4.69B	4.13B	5.38B	6.40B
Operating Cash Flow	10.51B	9.43B	8.52B	8.96B	9.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.93B	-5.32B	-3.39B	-2.64B	-3.39B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.58B	-4.09B	-5.66B	-6.66B	-4.68B

HCA Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 334.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 334.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 368.95, below the 50-day MA of 373.90, and below the 200-day MA of 343.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.12 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HCA.

HCA Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FMS	77 Outperform	$15.78B	23.96	4.36%	0.10%	-0.91%	27.17%
UHS	73 Outperform	$10.02B	9.26	18.35%	0.51%	9.73%	51.87%
DVA	70 Outperform	$10.93B	14.33	260.92%	―	5.11%	14.28%
HCA	69 Neutral	$82.15B	15.70	-230.22%	0.83%	6.37%	―
THC	67 Neutral	$13.78B	9.50	41.09%	―	-1.09%	-43.10%
EHC	65 Neutral	$10.96B	22.45	25.33%	0.63%	11.21%	30.38%
Sector *	65 Neutral	¥355.44B	11.10	-2.99%	2.49%	11.76%	-10.16%

HCA Healthcare Corporate Events

HCA Healthcare Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results

On July 25, 2025, HCA Healthcare announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reporting a 6.4% increase in revenues to $18.605 billion and a 13.1% rise in net income to $1.653 billion compared to the same period in 2024. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share, to be paid on September 30, 2025. HCA Healthcare raised its 2025 guidance, reflecting strong financial performance and operational improvements, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 8.4% to $3.849 billion. The company repurchased 7.031 million shares of its common stock and had $5.753 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization as of June 30, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCA) stock is a Buy with a $425.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCA Healthcare stock, see the HCA Stock Forecast page.

HCA Healthcare Appoints John Chidsey to Board

On July 8, 2025, HCA Healthcare announced the appointment of John W. Chidsey, III to its Board of Directors, effective July 15, 2025, expanding the board from nine to ten members. Chidsey, with a distinguished career including leadership roles at Subway and Burger King, will serve on several key committees, bringing valuable financial and operational expertise to HCA Healthcare. This strategic appointment is expected to bolster the company’s commitment to improving healthcare delivery and patient outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCA) stock is a Buy with a $425.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCA Healthcare stock, see the HCA Stock Forecast page.

HCA Healthcare Launches $4 Billion Commercial Paper Program

On June 10, 2025, HCA Inc., a subsidiary of HCA Healthcare, established a commercial paper program to issue up to $4 billion in unsecured notes, guaranteed by HCA Healthcare. The notes, intended for general corporate purposes, will be sold privately in the U.S. commercial paper market and are not registered under the Securities Act of 1933.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCA) stock is a Buy with a $385.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCA Healthcare stock, see the HCA Stock Forecast page.

HCA Healthcare Approves New Compensation Program

On April 24, 2025, HCA Healthcare‘s Board of Directors approved the 2025-2026 compensation program for non-management directors, which includes cash retainers and equity awards. The company also held its Annual Meeting on the same day, where key decisions were made, including the election of directors, approval of amendments to the stock incentive plan, and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm. Stockholder proposals on golden parachutes and acquisition strategy were not approved.