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HCA Healthcare (HCA)
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HCA Healthcare (HCA) AI Stock Analysis

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HCA

HCA Healthcare

(NYSE:HCA)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$366.00
▲(9.48%Upside)
HCA Healthcare's overall stock score is primarily driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, which are countered by technical analysis showing bearish momentum. Strategic corporate actions add a positive aspect to the outlook, but high leverage remains a key risk factor.
Positive Factors
Cost Management
The company demonstrated strong cost controls with lower-than-expected labor costs and operating expenses.
Earnings
HCA reported results that beat consensus EBITDA estimates by approximately 4%, showcasing its strong financial performance.
Market Position
HCA has lower exposure to the headwinds from the recent Reconciliation Bill compared to some peers, and its scale should help it mitigate these challenges better than most.
Negative Factors
EBITDA Pressure
Coverage reductions and Medicaid cuts are expected to put increasing pressure on EBITDA through 2030, averaging a 2% headwind to EBITDA growth per year.
Growth Outlook
HCA's future growth rates are expected to be reduced by an annual headwind of about 2% through 2030 due to additional cuts, including those to state-directed payment programs.
Policy Impact
The recently passed Reconciliation Bill is causing headwinds from cuts to Medicaid and ACA exchanges, leading to expected reductions in volumes and higher bad debt.

HCA Healthcare (HCA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

HCA Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHCA Healthcare (HCA) is a leading provider of healthcare services, operating a comprehensive network of hospitals, surgery centers, and urgent care facilities across the United States and the United Kingdom. The company focuses on offering a wide range of medical services, including inpatient and outpatient care, emergency services, and specialized medical procedures. HCA Healthcare is committed to delivering high-quality patient care and improving healthcare outcomes through its extensive array of healthcare facilities and innovative service offerings.
How the Company Makes MoneyHCA Healthcare generates revenue primarily through the provision of healthcare services across its network of facilities. The company earns money by billing patients, insurers, and government programs like Medicare and Medicaid for services rendered, including hospital stays, surgeries, emergency room visits, and outpatient services. Key revenue streams include patient service revenues from acute care hospitals, which form the bulk of its income, as well as revenues from outpatient and ancillary services. HCA Healthcare also benefits from strategic partnerships and affiliations with other healthcare providers and insurers, enhancing its service delivery and patient access. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as healthcare reimbursement rates, patient volume, and the overall demand for medical services.

HCA Healthcare Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges lie.
Chart InsightsHCA Healthcare's Adjusted EBITDA shows robust growth in the National, American, and Atlantic Groups, reflecting strategic expansions and improved operating margins. Despite the Corporate and Other segment's persistent negative impact, the earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, with a notable 11.3% increase in adjusted EBITDA. This growth is supported by volume increases in inpatient and emergency room admissions and effective cost management. However, challenges in surgical volumes and potential federal policy risks could pose future hurdles. Overall, the company is capitalizing on its expanded facility network and improved payer mix.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

HCA Healthcare Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 25, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -2.10%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with significant growth in earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA. There was broad-based volume growth, particularly in managed care and exchange admissions, and an improved operating margin. However, challenges remain in surgical volumes and potential impacts from federal policy risks and state supplemental payments. Overall, the positive achievements outweighed the concerns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Diluted earnings per share, as adjusted, increased more than 20% in the first quarter to $6.45. Adjusted EBITDA grew 11.3% over the prior year quarter.
Broad-Based Volume Growth
Inpatient admissions grew 2.6% year-over-year, equivalent admissions grew 2.8%, and emergency room visits increased 4%. Same facilities revenue grew almost 6%.
Improved Operating Margin
Operating margin improved on a year-over-year basis, driven by strong expense management and operating leverage from volume growth.
Managed Care and Exchange Admissions Growth
Same-facility managed care equivalent admissions increased 5.4%, and same-facility equivalent exchange admissions increased 22.4% over the prior year quarter.
Capital Expansion
Capital spending increased the number of facilities by 3.3% and inpatient bed capacity by approximately 2%.
Negative Updates
Surgical Volume Challenges
Surgical volumes were mixed, with inpatient surgeries slightly up, but outpatient cases down, driven by lower acuity cases and Medicaid and self-health payer mix.
Potential Federal Policy Risks
Uncertainty around federal policy environment and potential impacts on business, with no specific estimates provided due to lack of details.
Dependence on State Supplemental Payments
There is a potential range of $50 million better to a $200 million decline in state supplemental payments, with uncertainty around approval for Tennessee program.
Contract Labor Costs
Contract labor costs, although improved, still represent 4.4% of total labor costs in the first quarter of 2025.
Company Guidance
During HCA Healthcare's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided a robust set of financial and operational metrics that highlighted a strong start to the fiscal year. Diluted earnings per share increased by over 20% to $6.45 compared to the prior year. The company experienced volume growth with inpatient admissions up 2.6%, equivalent admissions up 2.8%, and emergency room visits up 4%. Revenue per equivalent admission increased by approximately 3%, contributing to a nearly 6% rise in same-facility revenue. The operating margin improved year-over-year, driven by strong cost management, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 11.3%. Additionally, HCA expanded its facility network by 3.3% and increased inpatient bed capacity by approximately 2%, achieving an inpatient occupancy rate of 77%. Despite fluctuations in surgical volumes, the company reaffirmed its guidance for the full year. The payer mix remained strong, with managed care equivalent admissions growing 5.4% and exchange admissions up 22.4%. The company also reported that contract labor costs decreased, representing 4.4% of total labor costs compared to 5.1% last year, as part of its ongoing efforts to optimize labor expenses.

HCA Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary
HCA Healthcare exhibits strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, as seen in its steady income statement performance and robust cash flow management. However, the high leverage on the balance sheet poses a significant risk.
Income Statement
75
Positive
HCA Healthcare has demonstrated steady revenue growth over the past few years, with a notable increase from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin remains robust, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin and EBIT margins have been consistent, although there was a slight dip in net income. The EBITDA margin indicates strong operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a healthy financial trajectory, although potential risks include slight fluctuations in net income.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, which poses a significant financial risk, as it indicates a reliance on debt financing. However, the company maintains substantial total assets. Return on equity is not applicable due to negative equity, but total liabilities as a percentage of total assets have been stable. The balance sheet reflects adequate asset management with risks associated with leverage.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
HCA Healthcare's cash flow analysis shows positive free cash flow growth, despite fluctuations in capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has been strong, underscoring efficient cash generation from operations. However, free cash flow to net income ratio declined recently, which could indicate increased investment activities. Overall, the company exhibits strong cash flow management, supporting its operations and investments.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue70.60B64.97B60.23B58.75B51.53B
Gross Profit28.68B9.63B50.86B49.27B43.16B
EBITDA13.90B12.72B13.29B14.25B9.73B
Net Income5.76B5.24B5.64B6.96B3.75B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets59.51B56.21B52.44B50.74B47.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.02B1.02B1.00B1.55B1.91B
Total Debt45.24B41.86B40.20B36.73B33.06B
Total Liabilities58.96B55.15B52.51B49.25B44.60B
Stockholders Equity-2.50B-1.77B-2.77B-933.00M572.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.64B4.69B4.13B5.38B6.40B
Operating Cash Flow10.51B9.43B8.52B8.96B9.23B
Investing Cash Flow-4.93B-5.32B-3.39B-2.64B-3.39B
Financing Cash Flow-4.58B-4.09B-5.66B-6.66B-4.68B

HCA Healthcare Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price334.32
Price Trends
50DMA
373.90
Negative
100DMA
354.85
Negative
200DMA
343.97
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-7.83
Positive
RSI
25.12
Positive
STOCH
10.52
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 334.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 368.95, below the 50-day MA of 373.90, and below the 200-day MA of 343.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.12 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HCA.

HCA Healthcare Risk Analysis

HCA Healthcare disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. HCA Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

HCA Healthcare Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$15.78B23.964.36%0.10%-0.91%27.17%
73
Outperform
$10.02B9.2618.35%0.51%9.73%51.87%
70
Outperform
$10.93B14.33260.92%5.11%14.28%
69
Neutral
$82.15B15.70-230.22%0.83%6.37%
67
Neutral
$13.78B9.5041.09%-1.09%-43.10%
65
Neutral
$10.96B22.4525.33%0.63%11.21%30.38%
65
Neutral
¥355.44B11.10-2.99%2.49%11.76%-10.16%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HCA
HCA Healthcare
334.32
-17.64
-5.01%
DVA
DaVita
145.17
7.76
5.65%
FMS
Fresenius Medical Care
26.43
6.52
32.75%
EHC
Encompass Health
107.67
16.67
18.32%
THC
Tenet Healthcare
153.02
1.39
0.92%
UHS
Universal Health
155.60
-57.23
-26.89%

HCA Healthcare Corporate Events

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
HCA Healthcare Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Jul 25, 2025

On July 25, 2025, HCA Healthcare announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reporting a 6.4% increase in revenues to $18.605 billion and a 13.1% rise in net income to $1.653 billion compared to the same period in 2024. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share, to be paid on September 30, 2025. HCA Healthcare raised its 2025 guidance, reflecting strong financial performance and operational improvements, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 8.4% to $3.849 billion. The company repurchased 7.031 million shares of its common stock and had $5.753 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization as of June 30, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCA) stock is a Buy with a $425.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCA Healthcare stock, see the HCA Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
HCA Healthcare Appoints John Chidsey to Board
Positive
Jul 11, 2025

On July 8, 2025, HCA Healthcare announced the appointment of John W. Chidsey, III to its Board of Directors, effective July 15, 2025, expanding the board from nine to ten members. Chidsey, with a distinguished career including leadership roles at Subway and Burger King, will serve on several key committees, bringing valuable financial and operational expertise to HCA Healthcare. This strategic appointment is expected to bolster the company’s commitment to improving healthcare delivery and patient outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCA) stock is a Buy with a $425.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCA Healthcare stock, see the HCA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
HCA Healthcare Launches $4 Billion Commercial Paper Program
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

On June 10, 2025, HCA Inc., a subsidiary of HCA Healthcare, established a commercial paper program to issue up to $4 billion in unsecured notes, guaranteed by HCA Healthcare. The notes, intended for general corporate purposes, will be sold privately in the U.S. commercial paper market and are not registered under the Securities Act of 1933.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCA) stock is a Buy with a $385.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCA Healthcare stock, see the HCA Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
HCA Healthcare Approves New Compensation Program
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025

On April 24, 2025, HCA Healthcare‘s Board of Directors approved the 2025-2026 compensation program for non-management directors, which includes cash retainers and equity awards. The company also held its Annual Meeting on the same day, where key decisions were made, including the election of directors, approval of amendments to the stock incentive plan, and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm. Stockholder proposals on golden parachutes and acquisition strategy were not approved.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 26, 2025