HCA Healthcare (HCA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $94.52B
• Dividend Yield: 0.68%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: 6.37%
• EPS Growth: 11.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 226,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 6.84
• Shares Outstanding: 233,993,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,108,755
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,404,398
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.03
• 1Y Price Target: $394.13
• Price Target Upside: -3.31% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $435.00 ▲(6.72% Upside)

HCA Healthcare's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the primary drivers of its score. The company's robust revenue growth and operational efficiency are offset by high leverage risks and valuation concerns. Technical indicators suggest a positive trend, but caution is warranted due to potential overbought conditions.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

HCA reported a healthy earnings beat and increased its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $300 million.

Revenue Growth

Revenue per equivalent admission increased by 3.9% y/y, or 150 bps ahead of the Street and is more than offsetting lower volumes.

Shareholder Returns

HCA continues to buyback a historic amount of stock.

Negative Factors

Future Growth Concerns

The stock was down as the market is concerned about 2026 growth.

Subsidy Expiration

HCA will face a 300bps headwind in 2026 from the expiration of the enhanced subsidies.

Volume Growth

Volume growth slowed by more than expected in Q2, which is consistent with the thesis of normalization of utilization after the COVID-induced labor supply shock and recovery.

HCA Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services company in the United States. The company operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. It also operates outpatient health care facilities consisting of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, physician practices, and various other facilities. In addition, the company operates psychiatric hospitals, which provide therapeutic programs comprising child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol, drug abuse treatment, and counseling services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 182 hospitals, including 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals; 125 freestanding surgery centers; and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers in 20 states and England. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

HCA Healthcare generates revenue primarily through patient services, which include hospital admissions, surgical procedures, outpatient services, and ancillary services such as laboratory and imaging services. The company earns money by billing patients and third-party payers, including government programs like Medicare and Medicaid, as well as commercial insurance providers. HCA's revenue model relies on a combination of fee-for-service payments and capitated payments, where they receive a set amount for patient care regardless of the number of services provided. Significant partnerships with insurance companies and healthcare organizations enhance their revenue opportunities. Additionally, HCA benefits from economies of scale due to its extensive network, enabling more efficient operations and cost management, which contribute to its overall profitability.

HCA Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

HCA Healthcare demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, as seen in their income statement and cash flow analysis. However, the high leverage indicated on the balance sheet due to negative equity is a concern, necessitating careful financial management.

Income Statement

HCA Healthcare has demonstrated steady revenue growth over the past few years, with a notable increase from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin remains robust, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin and EBIT margins have been consistent, although there was a slight dip in net income. The EBITDA margin indicates strong operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a healthy financial trajectory, although potential risks include slight fluctuations in net income.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, which poses a significant financial risk, as it indicates a reliance on debt financing. However, the company maintains substantial total assets. Return on equity is not applicable due to negative equity, but total liabilities as a percentage of total assets have been stable. The balance sheet reflects adequate asset management with risks associated with leverage.

Cash Flow

HCA Healthcare's cash flow analysis shows positive free cash flow growth, despite fluctuations in capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has been strong, underscoring efficient cash generation from operations. However, free cash flow to net income ratio declined recently, which could indicate increased investment activities. Overall, the company exhibits strong cash flow management, supporting its operations and investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	71.58B	70.60B	64.97B	60.23B	58.75B	51.53B
Gross Profit	10.84B	10.55B	9.63B	9.05B	9.68B	7.26B
EBITDA	14.08B	13.90B	12.72B	13.29B	14.21B	9.71B
Net Income	5.78B	5.76B	5.24B	5.64B	6.96B	3.75B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	59.80B	59.51B	56.21B	52.44B	50.74B	47.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.06B	1.93B	935.00M	908.00M	1.45B	1.79B
Total Debt	46.44B	45.24B	41.86B	40.20B	36.73B	33.06B
Total Liabilities	60.24B	58.96B	55.15B	52.51B	49.25B	44.60B
Stockholders Equity	-3.52B	-2.50B	-1.77B	-2.77B	-933.00M	572.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.95B	5.64B	4.69B	4.13B	5.38B	6.40B
Operating Cash Flow	9.70B	10.51B	9.43B	8.52B	8.96B	9.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.06B	-4.93B	-5.32B	-3.39B	-2.64B	-3.39B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.86B	-4.58B	-4.09B	-5.66B	-6.66B	-4.68B

HCA Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 407.61
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 407.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 396.23, above the 50-day MA of 378.25, and above the 200-day MA of 345.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCA.

HCA Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UHS	78 Outperform	$11.55B	9.56	18.66%	0.44%	9.61%	39.65%
THC	75 Outperform	$16.38B	11.97	41.09%	―	-1.09%	-43.10%
EHC	73 Outperform	$12.26B	24.19	25.35%	0.55%	11.80%	30.02%
FMS	71 Outperform	$15.03B	19.85	4.72%	3.23%	1.11%	25.84%
HCA	71 Outperform	$94.52B	17.06	-230.22%	0.68%	6.37%	11.25%
DVA	62 Neutral	$9.85B	13.46	635.30%	―	5.09%	7.85%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.90B	-0.33	-41.69%	2.23%	23.45%	-1.99%

HCA Healthcare Corporate Events

HCA Healthcare Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results

On July 25, 2025, HCA Healthcare announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reporting a 6.4% increase in revenues to $18.605 billion and a 13.1% rise in net income to $1.653 billion compared to the same period in 2024. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share, to be paid on September 30, 2025. HCA Healthcare raised its 2025 guidance, reflecting strong financial performance and operational improvements, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 8.4% to $3.849 billion. The company repurchased 7.031 million shares of its common stock and had $5.753 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization as of June 30, 2025.

HCA Healthcare Appoints John Chidsey to Board

On July 8, 2025, HCA Healthcare announced the appointment of John W. Chidsey, III to its Board of Directors, effective July 15, 2025, expanding the board from nine to ten members. Chidsey, with a distinguished career including leadership roles at Subway and Burger King, will serve on several key committees, bringing valuable financial and operational expertise to HCA Healthcare. This strategic appointment is expected to bolster the company’s commitment to improving healthcare delivery and patient outcomes.

HCA Healthcare Launches $4 Billion Commercial Paper Program

On June 10, 2025, HCA Inc., a subsidiary of HCA Healthcare, established a commercial paper program to issue up to $4 billion in unsecured notes, guaranteed by HCA Healthcare. The notes, intended for general corporate purposes, will be sold privately in the U.S. commercial paper market and are not registered under the Securities Act of 1933.