HCA Healthcare (HCA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $112.10B
• Dividend Yield: 0.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.39
• Revenue Growth: 6.82%
• EPS Growth: 15.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 226,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 8.01
• Shares Outstanding: 228,193,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,150,453
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,016,667
• PEG Ratio: 0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): -17.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.29
• 1Y Price Target: $529.71
• Price Target Upside: 9.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $569.00 ▲(17.92% Upside)

The score is driven by strong operating performance and cash generation plus a clearly positive price trend. The biggest offset is elevated balance-sheet risk (high debt and negative equity), and guidance includes meaningful policy/reimbursement headwinds that increase execution risk despite management’s mitigation plans and enhanced shareholder returns.

Positive Factors

Scale & Network

HCA’s extensive hospital and care-site footprint provides durable market share, referral networks and scale economies. Geographic diversification and a broad outpatient/hospital mix support steady volumes, negotiating leverage with payers, and long-term revenue resilience.

Cash Generation & Profitability

Consistent high absolute cash flow and ~20% EBITDA margins create durable internal funding for capex, technology and shareholder returns. Strong FCF supports debt servicing and strategic investments, increasing operational flexibility over the medium term despite external pressures.

Sustained Volume Growth

Nineteen consecutive quarters of volume growth and record patient encounters indicate structural demand strength and stickiness in HCA’s service lines. Stable admissions and equivalent-admission growth drive predictable revenue and operating leverage that underpin long-term margin stability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage & Negative Equity

Very large debt and negative equity materially constrain financial flexibility and raise refinancing and covenant risks. Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to reimbursement or volume shocks, limiting ability to absorb shocks and reducing strategic optionality over a multi‑quarter horizon.

Policy/Reimbursement Headwinds (Exchanges)

A modeled $600–900M exchange-related EBITDA hit is a structural revenue shock tied to policy change. If sustained, lower insured volumes and higher uncompensated care can reduce margins and cash flow, making long-term planning and debt servicing more challenging until policy or payer mix adjusts.

Rising Labor & Physician Cost Pressure

Persistent labor and clinician cost inflation is a structural margin headwind for labor‑intensive healthcare operations. Elevated contract labor and rising physician costs compress operating margins and require sustained productivity or price improvements, which are difficult and slow to realize.

HCA Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services company in the United States. The company operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. It also operates outpatient health care facilities consisting of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, physician practices, and various other facilities. In addition, the company operates psychiatric hospitals, which provide therapeutic programs comprising child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol, drug abuse treatment, and counseling services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 182 hospitals, including 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals; 125 freestanding surgery centers; and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers in 20 states and England. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

HCA Healthcare generates revenue primarily through patient services provided at its hospitals and outpatient facilities. The key revenue streams include inpatient admissions, outpatient services, surgical procedures, emergency room visits, and diagnostic imaging. The company is largely funded by third-party payers such as Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance companies, which reimburse HCA for the medical services rendered. Additionally, HCA benefits from partnerships with various healthcare organizations and has implemented strategies to optimize operational efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance patient care, contributing to its overall earnings. The company also invests in technology and data analytics to improve service delivery and patient outcomes, further supporting its revenue generation efforts.

HCA Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is strong (TTM revenue $75.6B, solid profitability with ~20.6% EBITDA margin and meaningful free cash flow of ~$7.7B), but the balance sheet is a major constraint with high debt (~$50.2B) and negative equity (~-$6.0B), which materially reduces financial flexibility despite strong cash generation.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rose to $75.6B with very strong year-over-year growth (about +165%), and profitability is solid with roughly 20.6% EBITDA margin and ~9.0% net margin. Margins have generally held up well across the period, supporting consistent earnings power. Offsetting this, net margin is below the 2021 peak (~11.8%), and the 2022–2023 gross profit margin data appears unusually volatile versus other years, which adds some uncertainty to trend interpretation.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint: total debt is high at ~$50.2B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) against total assets of ~$60.7B. Stockholders’ equity is negative (about -$6.0B TTM), which makes equity-based leverage and returns unfavorable and reflects a thin/negative equity cushion. While assets have grown over time, the capital structure leaves less flexibility and increases sensitivity to operating or funding shocks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong in absolute terms: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is ~$12.6B and free cash flow is ~$7.7B. Free cash flow covers a meaningful portion of earnings (about 63% of net income), supporting ongoing debt service and shareholder returns. The main weakness is that free cash flow declined about 5% in TTM and cash conversion versus accounting earnings is not consistently high, suggesting working-capital and/or capital spending demands can pressure near-term free cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	75.60B	70.60B	64.97B	60.23B	58.75B
Gross Profit	31.37B	28.68B	25.58B	23.18B	22.49B
EBITDA	15.60B	13.90B	12.72B	13.29B	14.25B
Net Income	6.78B	5.76B	5.24B	5.64B	6.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	60.72B	59.51B	56.21B	52.44B	50.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.04B	2.02B	935.00M	908.00M	1.45B
Total Debt	50.20B	45.24B	41.86B	40.20B	36.73B
Total Liabilities	63.49B	58.96B	55.15B	52.51B	49.25B
Stockholders Equity	-6.03B	-2.50B	-1.77B	-2.77B	-933.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.69B	5.64B	4.69B	4.13B	5.38B
Operating Cash Flow	12.64B	10.51B	9.43B	8.52B	8.96B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.99B	-4.93B	-5.32B	-3.39B	-2.64B
Financing Cash Flow	-8.55B	-4.58B	-4.09B	-5.66B	-6.66B

HCA Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 482.53
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 482.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 476.25, above the 50-day MA of 480.63, and above the 200-day MA of 413.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCA.

HCA Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UHS	76 Outperform	$12.68B	9.65	19.97%	0.35%	10.21%	39.58%
HCA	75 Outperform	$112.10B	17.34	―	0.61%	6.82%	15.82%
THC	74 Outperform	$16.66B	12.99	34.51%	―	-0.56%	-53.50%
FMS	65 Neutral	$12.90B	16.10	5.31%	3.29%	4.09%	13.17%
EHC	64 Neutral	$9.63B	18.09	24.94%	0.65%	11.13%	27.53%
DVA	59 Neutral	$7.48B	11.04	―	―	5.14%	4.37%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

HCA Healthcare Corporate Events

HCA Healthcare Posts Strong Q4 Results, Boosts Capital Returns

On January 27, 2026, HCA Healthcare reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with quarterly revenues up 6.7% to $19.5 billion, net income up 30.6% to $1.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 10.8% to $4.1 billion, supported by higher same-facility admissions and improved revenue per equivalent admission. For 2025 as a whole, revenues rose to $75.6 billion and net income climbed to $6.8 billion, while the company continued heavy capital investment, absorbed earlier hurricane-related impacts, and managed a sizable debt load alongside robust liquidity. The company’s board authorized a new $10 billion share repurchase program and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.78 per share, underscoring an aggressive capital return strategy after buying back $2.6 billion of stock in the fourth quarter, moves that could bolster shareholder value and signal confidence in ongoing cash generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCA) stock is a Buy with a $500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCA Healthcare stock, see the HCA Stock Forecast page.

HCA Healthcare Issues $3.25 Billion in Senior Notes

On October 31, 2025, HCA Inc., a subsidiary of HCA Healthcare, completed a significant financial transaction by issuing $3.25 billion in senior notes. This issuance, which includes notes maturing between 2030 and 2055, is expected to impact the company’s financial operations by providing additional capital, potentially influencing its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCA) stock is a Buy with a $525.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCA Healthcare stock, see the HCA Stock Forecast page.