HCA Healthcare (HCA)
NYSE:HCA
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HCA Healthcare
(NYSE:HCA)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$451.00
▼(-7.58% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/29/26
The score is supported by resilient profitability and strong cash generation plus reaffirmed guidance and continued capital returns. It is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet risk (persistent negative equity) and clearly weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD and very low RSI). Valuation is reasonable but the low dividend yield offers limited additional support.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
HCA's sizable TTM operating cash flow (~$13B) and FCF (~$7.9B) provide durable internal funding for capex, debt service, dividends and buybacks. Reliable cash conversion supports sustained capital returns and refinancing flexibility, cushioning reimbursement volatility over months.
Negative Factors
Weak Balance Sheet (Negative Equity)
Persistent negative shareholders' equity (~-$6.3B) and material debt (~$10.4B) limit financial flexibility and elevate refinancing and covenant risk. Negative equity constrains capacity for large M&A, weakens shock absorption, and increases sensitivity to interest or reimbursement shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
HCA's sizable TTM operating cash flow (~$13B) and FCF (~$7.9B) provide durable internal funding for capex, debt service, dividends and buybacks. Reliable cash conversion supports sustained capital returns and refinancing flexibility, cushioning reimbursement volatility over months.
Read all positive factors
HCA Healthcare (HCA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$99.66B
Dividend Yield0.61%
Average Volume (3M)975.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.6
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth6.71%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees320,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.15
Shares Outstanding223,568,970
10 Day Avg. Volume841,725
30 Day Avg. Volume975,497
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)-17.87
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio14.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$523.14Price Target Upside7.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)30.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$78.50B
HCA Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services company in the United States. The company operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, ...
How the Company Makes Money
HCA primarily makes money by delivering healthcare services and receiving reimbursement for patient care. Its core revenue stream is net patient service revenue generated from inpatient admissions and outpatient visits/procedures at its hospitals ...
HCA Healthcare Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges lie.
Highlights profitability across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges lie.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHCA Healthcare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a majority of positive operating and financial developments—revenue growth (+4.3%), strong EPS expansion (~11%), robust cash flow (+22%), sizable share repurchases, and a $200M incremental benefit from Medicaid supplemental programs—while acknowledging several meaningful headwinds including a sharp decline in respiratory-driven volumes, a January winter storm (combined ~$180M EBITDA drag), exchange-related revenue pressure (~$150M Q1; $600M–$900M full-year range), margin compression (‑50 bps) and rising denials. Management characterized the respiratory and weather impacts as temporal, reiterated full-year guidance and reaffirmed resiliency and AI-driven cost-efficiency plans. On balance, the company reported core growth and reinforced confidence in its balance sheet and guidance but faces significant payer and volume dynamics to monitor.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue increased 4.3% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
Negative Updates
Significant Respiratory Volume Shortfall
Respiratory-related admissions were down 42% and respiratory-related emergency room visits were down 32% year-over-year, producing a meaningful drag on Q1 volumes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue increased 4.3% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
HCA reaffirmed its 2026 guidance while modeling 2%–3% volume growth for the year and an expected full‑year adjusted‑EBITDA impact from exchange dynamics of $600–$900 million; Q1 revenue was up 4.3% YoY, adjusted EBITDA rose ~2% (margin down 50 bps), adjusted diluted EPS climbed ~11%, cash from operations was $2.0 billion (+22% YoY), capex was $1.1 billion, share repurchases totaled $1.57 billion, dividends were $183 million, and debt/adjusted‑EBITDA sits in the lower half of the target range. Same‑facility Q1 volumes: admissions +0.9% (equivalent +1.3%), inpatient surgeries −0.3%, outpatient surgeries −1.7%, ER visits +0.3%; respiratory admissions were down 42% and respiratory ER visits down 32% (respiratory season + winter storm estimated to reduce Q1 adjusted EBITDA by ~$180M). Medicaid supplemental payments unexpectedly contributed ~+$200M to Q1 adjusted EBITDA (driven by Georgia grandfathering and Texas Atlas reinstatement), prompting an updated full‑year supplemental‑payment assumption of a decline of $50M–$250M vs. prior year; exchange activity cost ~ $150M in Q1, same‑facility exchange equivalent admissions fell ~15% while uninsured equivalent admissions rose ~16%. The company reiterated a $400M resiliency target, reported network expansion of >4% more sites of care, ~1% more hospital beds through capex and ~4% added ER capacity, and noted a $5.5–6.0 billion approved capital project pipeline over the next 24–30 months.HCA Healthcare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 76.39B | 75.60B | 70.60B | 64.97B | 60.23B | 58.75B |
| Gross Profit | 26.68B | 31.37B | 28.68B | 25.58B | 23.18B | 22.49B |
| EBITDA | 15.66B | 15.60B | 13.90B | 12.72B | 13.29B | 14.25B |
| Net Income | 6.79B | 6.78B | 5.76B | 5.24B | 5.64B | 6.96B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.45B | 60.72B | 59.51B | 56.21B | 52.44B | 50.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 940.00M | 1.04B | 2.02B | 935.00M | 908.00M | 1.45B |
| Total Debt | 49.84B | 50.20B | 45.24B | 41.86B | 40.20B | 36.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 64.43B | 63.49B | 58.96B | 55.15B | 52.51B | 49.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | -6.30B | -6.03B | -2.50B | -1.77B | -2.77B | -933.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.93B | 7.69B | 5.64B | 4.69B | 4.13B | 5.38B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 13.00B | 12.64B | 10.51B | 9.43B | 8.52B | 8.96B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.24B | -4.99B | -4.93B | -5.32B | -3.39B | -2.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.88B | -8.55B | -4.58B | -4.09B | -5.66B | -6.66B |
HCA Healthcare Technical Analysis
Negative
488.00
Price Trends
510.68
Negative
495.98
Negative
452.48
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.55
Negative
45.14
Neutral
37.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 488 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 486.75, below the 50-day MA of 510.68, and above the 200-day MA of 452.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HCA.
HCA Healthcare Risk Analysis
HCA Healthcare disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. HCA Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
HCA Healthcare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $10.03B | 18.84 | 24.48% | 0.65% | 10.46% | 24.09% | |
64 Neutral | $10.95B | ― | 21.03% | 0.35% | 9.71% | 36.69% | |
63 Neutral | $10.02B | 10.44 | -160.63% | ― | 6.46% | -11.49% | |
62 Neutral | $16.25B | 12.83 | 34.82% | ― | 3.12% | -52.04% | |
60 Neutral | $13.19B | 12.07 | 7.13% | 3.29% | 6.05% | 93.15% | |
59 Neutral | $99.66B | 16.55 | -123.20% | 0.61% | 6.71% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
HCA
HCA Healthcare
431.92
93.62
27.67%
DVA
DaVita
150.07
8.53
6.03%
FMS
Fresenius Medical Care
22.51
-2.00
-8.16%
EHC
Encompass Health
101.69
-13.45
-11.68%
THC
Tenet Healthcare
177.50
39.15
28.30%
UHS
Universal Health
162.54
-8.66
-5.06%
HCA Healthcare Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
HCA Healthcare Stockholders Reaffirm Board and Governance Structure
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
HCA Healthcare, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on April 23, 2026, with more than 209 million shares represented in person or by proxy. Stockholders elected nine director nominees to one-year terms on the board, reaffirming the existi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
HCA Healthcare Launches Note Offering to Refinance 2026 Debt
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, HCA Healthcare said its subsidiary HCA Inc. had launched a proposed public offering of senior unsecured notes, with final terms such as maturity, coupon and size to be set at pricing based on market conditions. The transaction i...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
HCA Healthcare Posts Solid Q1 Results, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
HCA Healthcare reported first-quarter 2026 results on April 24, 2026, showing moderate growth in revenue and earnings despite softer volumes driven by a milder respiratory season and weather disruptions. Revenue rose 4.3% year on year to $19.1 bil...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
HCA Healthcare Adopts 2026 Executive Performance Incentive Program
Neutral
Feb 25, 2026
On February 24, 2026, HCA Healthcare’s board compensation committee approved a 2026 Executive Officer Performance Excellence Program that ties senior leaders’ cash incentive awards primarily to EBITDA performance, with 80% of payouts l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.