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HCA Healthcare (HCA)
NYSE:HCA

HCA Healthcare (HCA) AI Stock Analysis

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HCA Healthcare

(NYSE:HCA)

67Neutral
HCA Healthcare demonstrates strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, which are major strengths. The company's earnings call highlighted robust financial metrics and operational resilience, contributing positively to the outlook. However, concerns about declining profit margins, high leverage due to negative equity, and neutral technical indicators impact the stock's overall score. The stock is fairly valued, providing potential stability.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
HCA recorded an $80m year-over-year benefit from DPP largely driven by now quarterly accrual of NC and an OOP payment.
Shareholder Returns
HCA continues to generate strong free cash flow and is deploying capital toward an aggressive $10 billion share buyback.
Volume Growth
HCA saw broad-based volume growth, with management still thinking its healthcare demand assumptions are appropriate for the year at +3-4% volume growth.
Negative Factors
Market Response
The negative response (-3.9% vs. S&P 500 +0.7% and Health Care S&P 500 +0.5%) to a strong report was discouraging.
Policy Volatility
HCA and the group are expected to remain volatile around the policy news flow, with overreactions presenting buying opportunities.
Political Uncertainty
Management's conservative guidance for FY25 financial metrics is seen as a prudent move given the current political uncertainties affecting hospital stocks.

HCA Healthcare (HCA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

HCA Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services company in the United States. The company operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. It also operates outpatient health care facilities consisting of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, physician practices, and various other facilities. In addition, the company operates psychiatric hospitals, which provide therapeutic programs comprising child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol, drug abuse treatment, and counseling services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 182 hospitals, including 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals; 125 freestanding surgery centers; and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers in 20 states and England. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyHCA Healthcare generates revenue primarily through patient services, making money from a diversified stream of healthcare operations. The company earns income by providing medical treatments, surgeries, diagnostic services, and other healthcare-related services to patients. A significant portion of its revenue comes from hospital inpatient care, outpatient services, and emergency room visits. HCA Healthcare also receives payments from insurance companies, government healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid, and directly from patients. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships with medical technology firms, pharmaceutical companies, and various healthcare providers, which help expand its service offerings and improve operational efficiency. These partnerships and collaborations enhance HCA's ability to deliver integrated healthcare solutions, thereby contributing to its financial growth.

HCA Healthcare Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business units like hospitals, outpatient facilities, and other healthcare services, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic adjustments may be needed.
Chart InsightsHCA Healthcare's revenue growth is robust across all segments, with the American Group leading the charge. The earnings call highlights strong earnings and revenue growth despite challenges like hurricanes and professional fee pressures. The company's operational resilience and strategic initiatives, including a $10 billion share repurchase program and increased dividends, underscore confidence in sustained growth. However, outpatient surgery volumes remain a concern. Overall, HCA's strategic focus on admissions growth and revenue per admission is expected to drive continued financial performance in 2025.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

HCA Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary
HCA Healthcare shows robust revenue growth and strong cash flow generation, which are key strengths. However, the decline in profit margins and high leverage due to negative equity are significant concerns. While the cash flow position is strong, the company needs to address profitability issues and manage its high debt levels to ensure long-term financial stability.
Income Statement
72
Positive
HCA Healthcare shows consistent revenue growth with a 8.66% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the gross profit margin is notably lower in 2024, indicating rising costs or inefficiencies. The net profit margin has decreased significantly from previous years, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, but have also seen a decline compared to prior years.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential financial risk and reliance on debt. There is no equity cushion, which poses a risk in volatile market conditions. The return on equity is negative due to negative equity, masking the company's ability to generate returns for shareholders, despite positive net income.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
HCA Healthcare demonstrates strong operating cash flow, which has increased over the years, highlighting efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow has also grown, reflecting good control over capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, suggesting solid cash flow generation relative to net income.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
70.60B64.97B60.23B58.75B51.53B
Gross Profit
28.68B9.63B50.86B49.27B43.16B
EBIT
10.55B9.63B9.10B9.79B7.32B
EBITDA
13.86B12.72B13.29B14.25B9.73B
Net Income Common Stockholders
5.76B5.24B5.64B6.96B3.75B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.93B1.02B908.00M1.45B1.79B
Total Assets
59.51B56.21B52.44B50.74B47.49B
Total Debt
45.24B41.86B39.84B36.33B32.68B
Net Debt
43.30B40.92B38.93B34.88B30.88B
Total Liabilities
58.96B55.15B52.51B49.25B44.60B
Stockholders Equity
-2.50B-1.77B-2.77B-933.00M572.00M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
5.64B4.69B4.13B5.38B6.40B
Operating Cash Flow
10.51B9.43B8.52B8.96B9.23B
Investing Cash Flow
-4.93B-5.32B-3.39B-2.64B-3.39B
Financing Cash Flow
-4.58B-4.09B-5.66B-6.66B-4.68B

HCA Healthcare Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price343.04
Price Trends
50DMA
330.25
Positive
100DMA
321.84
Positive
200DMA
345.30
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
2.03
Negative
RSI
55.40
Neutral
STOCH
79.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 343.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 335.00, above the 50-day MA of 330.25, and below the 200-day MA of 345.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCA.

HCA Healthcare Risk Analysis

HCA Healthcare disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. HCA Healthcare reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

HCA Healthcare Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
MOMOH
80
Outperform
$18.87B16.8926.72%16.71%12.23%
THTHC
78
Outperform
$11.78B3.8438.12%-1.79%-41.85%
UHUHS
76
Outperform
$11.43B10.4318.35%0.45%9.73%51.87%
CNCNC
74
Outperform
$31.68B10.2212.59%8.85%33.30%
HUHUM
69
Neutral
$35.61B29.557.40%1.35%10.70%-49.85%
HCHCA
67
Neutral
$83.86B15.48-230.22%0.78%7.30%
52
Neutral
$5.28B3.75-42.72%2.86%17.70%2.03%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HCA
HCA Healthcare
343.04
36.66
11.97%
CNC
Centene
59.41
-14.92
-20.07%
HUM
Humana
256.04
-61.12
-19.27%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
313.04
-26.51
-7.81%
THC
Tenet Healthcare
145.29
26.35
22.15%
UHS
Universal Health
174.63
5.42
3.20%

HCA Healthcare Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 25, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.48%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with significant growth in earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA. There was broad-based volume growth, particularly in managed care and exchange admissions, and an improved operating margin. However, challenges remain in surgical volumes and potential impacts from federal policy risks and state supplemental payments. Overall, the positive achievements outweighed the concerns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Diluted earnings per share, as adjusted, increased more than 20% in the first quarter to $6.45. Adjusted EBITDA grew 11.3% over the prior year quarter.
Broad-Based Volume Growth
Inpatient admissions grew 2.6% year-over-year, equivalent admissions grew 2.8%, and emergency room visits increased 4%. Same facilities revenue grew almost 6%.
Improved Operating Margin
Operating margin improved on a year-over-year basis, driven by strong expense management and operating leverage from volume growth.
Managed Care and Exchange Admissions Growth
Same-facility managed care equivalent admissions increased 5.4%, and same-facility equivalent exchange admissions increased 22.4% over the prior year quarter.
Capital Expansion
Capital spending increased the number of facilities by 3.3% and inpatient bed capacity by approximately 2%.
Negative Updates
Surgical Volume Challenges
Surgical volumes were mixed, with inpatient surgeries slightly up, but outpatient cases down, driven by lower acuity cases and Medicaid and self-health payer mix.
Potential Federal Policy Risks
Uncertainty around federal policy environment and potential impacts on business, with no specific estimates provided due to lack of details.
Dependence on State Supplemental Payments
There is a potential range of $50 million better to a $200 million decline in state supplemental payments, with uncertainty around approval for Tennessee program.
Contract Labor Costs
Contract labor costs, although improved, still represent 4.4% of total labor costs in the first quarter of 2025.
Company Guidance
During HCA Healthcare's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided a robust set of financial and operational metrics that highlighted a strong start to the fiscal year. Diluted earnings per share increased by over 20% to $6.45 compared to the prior year. The company experienced volume growth with inpatient admissions up 2.6%, equivalent admissions up 2.8%, and emergency room visits up 4%. Revenue per equivalent admission increased by approximately 3%, contributing to a nearly 6% rise in same-facility revenue. The operating margin improved year-over-year, driven by strong cost management, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 11.3%. Additionally, HCA expanded its facility network by 3.3% and increased inpatient bed capacity by approximately 2%, achieving an inpatient occupancy rate of 77%. Despite fluctuations in surgical volumes, the company reaffirmed its guidance for the full year. The payer mix remained strong, with managed care equivalent admissions growing 5.4% and exchange admissions up 22.4%. The company also reported that contract labor costs decreased, representing 4.4% of total labor costs compared to 5.1% last year, as part of its ongoing efforts to optimize labor expenses.

HCA Healthcare Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
HCA Healthcare Approves New Compensation Program
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025

On April 24, 2025, HCA Healthcare‘s Board of Directors approved the 2025-2026 compensation program for non-management directors, which includes cash retainers and equity awards. The company also held its Annual Meeting on the same day, where key decisions were made, including the election of directors, approval of amendments to the stock incentive plan, and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm. Stockholder proposals on golden parachutes and acquisition strategy were not approved.

Spark’s Take on HCA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, HCA is a Outperform.

HCA Healthcare’s overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, offset by declining profit margins and high leverage. The valuation remains attractive, and the latest earnings call showcases operational resilience. However, technical indicators suggest weak momentum, which tempers the overall positive outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on HCA stock, click here.

Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
HCA Healthcare Q1 2025 Financial Results Announced
Positive
Apr 25, 2025

On April 25, 2025, HCA Healthcare announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting revenues of $18.321 billion and a net income of $1.610 billion. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share, payable on June 30, 2025. The results showed a growth in same facility admissions and emergency room visits, although outpatient surgeries declined. HCA Healthcare also repurchased 7.762 million shares of its common stock during the quarter. The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, indicating confidence in its performance and the growing demand for healthcare services.

Spark’s Take on HCA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, HCA is a Neutral.

HCA Healthcare has strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, but it faces challenges with declining profit margins and high leverage due to negative equity. The stock’s technical indicators suggest weak momentum, though it is reasonably valued. The recent earnings call highlighted operational resilience and strong shareholder returns, contributing positively to the outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on HCA stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
HCA Healthcare Launches 2025 Executive Performance Program
Neutral
Feb 24, 2025

On February 18, 2025, HCA Healthcare’s Board of Directors adopted the 2025 Executive Officer Performance Excellence Program, which offers performance awards to executive officers based on EBITDA and quality metrics. The program aims to incentivize executives to meet specific financial and quality targets, with awards paid in cash. Additionally, Meg G. Crofton announced her retirement from the Board of Directors, effective April 24, 2025.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
HCA Healthcare Secures New Credit Arrangement
Neutral
Feb 20, 2025

On February 20, 2025, HCA Healthcare entered into a material definitive agreement involving a credit arrangement with Bank of America and other lenders. This development is likely to impact the company’s financial structuring and operations, potentially influencing its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.