HCA Healthcare (HCA)
NYSE:HCA
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HCA Healthcare
(NYSE:HCA)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$612.00
▲(26.47% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:01/28/26
The score is driven by strong operating performance and cash generation plus a clearly positive price trend. The biggest offset is elevated balance-sheet risk (high debt and negative equity), and guidance includes meaningful policy/reimbursement headwinds that increase execution risk despite management’s mitigation plans and enhanced shareholder returns.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained OCF (~$12.6B TTM) and FCF (~$7.7B TTM) provide durable internal liquidity to fund capex, service debt, and return capital. Over a 2–6 month horizon this cash engine supports resiliency versus shocks, underpins buybacks/dividends and enables strategic investments.
Negative Factors
High leverage and negative equity
Elevated debt (~$50.2B) and negative equity materially limit financial flexibility. Even with strong cash flow, the capital structure increases sensitivity to interest rate moves, refinancing risk and operational shocks, reducing capacity for opportunistic investment or cushioning policy-driven revenue swings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained OCF (~$12.6B TTM) and FCF (~$7.7B TTM) provide durable internal liquidity to fund capex, service debt, and return capital. Over a 2–6 month horizon this cash engine supports resiliency versus shocks, underpins buybacks/dividends and enables strategic investments.
Read all positive factors
HCA Healthcare (HCA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$108.22B
Dividend Yield0.61%
Average Volume (3M)1.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.9
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth6.82%
EPS Growth15.82%
CountryUS
Employees320,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.01
Shares Outstanding223,622,200
10 Day Avg. Volume1,059,316
30 Day Avg. Volume1,106,005
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)-17.87
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio14.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$551.50Price Target Upside13.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)30.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$78.60B
HCA Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services company in the United States. The company operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, ...
How the Company Makes Money
HCA Healthcare generates revenue primarily through patient services provided at its hospitals and outpatient facilities. The key revenue streams include inpatient admissions, outpatient services, surgical procedures, emergency room visits, and dia...
HCA Healthcare Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges lie.
Highlights profitability across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges lie.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHCA Healthcare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational execution and financial results (double‑digit EBITDA growth, record patient encounters, robust cash flow, aggressive buybacks/dividend increase and stable margin guidance) while explicitly identifying sizable, policy-driven headwinds (expired exchange subsidies, lower supplemental payments, uninsured exposure and labor/physician cost pressures). Management presented a detailed resiliency program ($400M target) and digital initiatives intended to offset much of the exchange impact and reiterated confidence in delivering within long-term plans. Net: solid corporate momentum and balance-sheet strength tempered by meaningful near-term reimbursement and policy uncertainty.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth
Revenue increased 6.7% versus prior year quarter; adjusted EBITDA grew ~11% in the quarter and 12.1% for the full year; adjusted EBITDA margin improved ~80 bps in the quarter and 90 bps for the year; net income attributable to HCA increased ~31% and adjusted diluted EPS rose ~29%.
Negative Updates
Exchange Subsidy Expiration — Major EBITDA Headwind
Expiration of enhanced premium tax credits and related administrative reforms expected to create an adverse impact to adjusted EBITDA of $600M–$900M in 2026; management models a 15%–20% decline in exchange volumes with only ~15%–20% of that migrating to employer coverage.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth
Revenue increased 6.7% versus prior year quarter; adjusted EBITDA grew ~11% in the quarter and 12.1% for the full year; adjusted EBITDA margin improved ~80 bps in the quarter and 90 bps for the year; net income attributable to HCA increased ~31% and adjusted diluted EPS rose ~29%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
HCA’s 2026 guidance called for revenue of $76.5–80.0 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $15.55–16.45 billion, net income attributable of $6.5–7.0 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $29.01–31.50, with equivalent admissions growth of 2–3% and full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin slightly above 20%; cash flow from operations of $12–13 billion and capital spending raised to $5.0–5.5 billion; management expects an adverse exchange‑related EBITDA impact of $600–900 million (reflecting 2025 administrative reforms and EPTC expiration) partially offset by roughly $400 million of resiliency savings, and a $250–450 million decline in supplemental payment net benefit (with the Texas pause ~one‑third of that change and Virginia/Tennessee items noted); no material incremental hurricane‑market EBITDA vs. prior year; balance‑sheet leverage at the low end of target; a new $10 billion share‑repurchase authorization (majority of the prior program expected to be completed in 2026) and a quarterly dividend increase to $0.78; assumptions discussed include a modeled 15–20% decline in exchange volumes (15–20% of that migrating to employer coverage) and ~30% lower utilization for those becoming uninsured.HCA Healthcare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 75.60B | 70.60B | 64.97B | 60.23B | 58.75B |
| Gross Profit | 31.37B | 28.68B | 25.58B | 23.18B | 22.49B |
| EBITDA | 15.60B | 13.90B | 12.72B | 13.29B | 14.25B |
| Net Income | 6.78B | 5.76B | 5.24B | 5.64B | 6.96B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 60.72B | 59.51B | 56.21B | 52.44B | 50.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.04B | 2.02B | 935.00M | 908.00M | 1.45B |
| Total Debt | 50.20B | 45.24B | 41.86B | 40.20B | 36.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 63.49B | 58.96B | 55.15B | 52.51B | 49.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | -6.03B | -2.50B | -1.77B | -2.77B | -933.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.69B | 5.64B | 4.69B | 4.13B | 5.38B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.64B | 10.51B | 9.43B | 8.52B | 8.96B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.99B | -4.93B | -5.32B | -3.39B | -2.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.55B | -4.58B | -4.09B | -5.66B | -6.66B |
HCA Healthcare Technical Analysis
Neutral
483.92
Price Trends
509.50
Negative
493.86
Negative
447.21
Positive
Market Momentum
-12.33
Positive
41.14
Neutral
44.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 483.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 499.98, below the 50-day MA of 509.50, and above the 200-day MA of 447.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -12.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HCA.
HCA Healthcare Risk Analysis
HCA Healthcare disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. HCA Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
HCA Healthcare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $108.22B | 15.88 | -140.78% | 0.61% | 6.82% | 15.82% | |
70 Outperform | $11.07B | 9.31 | 21.03% | 0.35% | 10.21% | 39.58% | |
70 Outperform | $10.45B | 18.84 | 24.48% | 0.65% | 11.13% | 27.53% | |
63 Neutral | $10.03B | 10.44 | -160.63% | ― | 5.14% | 4.37% | |
62 Neutral | $16.55B | 12.83 | 34.82% | ― | -0.56% | -53.50% | |
60 Neutral | $12.95B | 12.07 | 7.13% | 3.29% | 4.09% | 13.17% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
HCA
HCA Healthcare
483.92
153.96
46.66%
DVA
DaVita
150.12
6.20
4.31%
FMS
Fresenius Medical Care
22.48
0.34
1.54%
EHC
Encompass Health
105.15
7.89
8.11%
THC
Tenet Healthcare
190.28
70.77
59.22%
UHS
Universal Health
181.33
8.73
5.06%
HCA Healthcare Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
HCA Healthcare Adopts 2026 Executive Performance Incentive Program
Neutral
Feb 25, 2026
On February 24, 2026, HCA Healthcare’s board compensation committee approved a 2026 Executive Officer Performance Excellence Program that ties senior leaders’ cash incentive awards primarily to EBITDA performance, with 80% of payouts l...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
HCA Healthcare Posts Strong Q4 Results, Boosts Capital Returns
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, HCA Healthcare reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with quarterly revenues up 6.7% to $19.5 billion, net income up 30.6% to $1.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 10.8% to $4.1 billion, supported by higher ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.