Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $867.11M
• Dividend Yield: 3.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 348.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: -78.64%
• EPS Growth: -913.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 841
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 51,217,434
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 570,181
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 348,712
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.68
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -39.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.42
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 24.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.05
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $307.66M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.00 ▲(0.41% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

The score is held back primarily by the severe 2025 income statement deterioration and weak technical setup (below key moving averages with low RSI/Stoch). Offsetting these, the earnings call was constructive with improved profitability/margin momentum and favorable 2026 guidance, while valuation is mixed due to a negative P/E but a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Net interest margin expansion

Sustained NIM expansion reflects durable benefits from balance sheet repositioning: higher-yielding new loan coupons (>6.5%), realized deposit beta ~40% and sizable securities cash flows. Higher, stable NIMs materially support long-run net interest income and return on equity if maintained.

Stronger leverage and funding mix

Material deleveraging improves financial flexibility and reduces fixed funding risk, enabling the bank to better absorb shocks and support capital accretion. Combined with a shift to loans and retail deposits, the balance sheet is structurally safer and supports sustained lending capacity.

Resilient cash generation and fee growth

Cash-generation resilience provides durable support for operations and dividends despite accounting volatility. Complementary fee-income growth (wealth +19%, mortgage +14%) diversifies revenue, reducing sensitivity to interest-rate swings and supporting stable core earnings over several quarters.

Negative Factors

Severe 2025 earnings deterioration

A large, recent swing to a sizable loss and deeply negative margins raises durable concerns about earnings quality and operating leverage. Such a step-down can impair capital generation, limit strategic optionality, and requires sustained improvement to restore multi-year ROE trends.

Rising non-performing loans

An uptick in NPLs to 72 bps and a larger allowance indicate rising credit stress in pockets of the portfolio. Persistent deterioration or further migration through risk buckets would pressure provisioning, compress core earnings and could constrain loan growth and capital accretion over multiple quarters.

Planned deposit runoff and funding cost

Intentional runoff of high-cost transactional deposits reduces funding but creates near-term liquidity and margin pressure given >4% cost. Managing the trade-off between lowering deposit costs and maintaining stable funding is a multi-quarter task that can limit loan growth or compress NIM until rebalanced.

Horizon Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides a range of commercial and retail banking services. The company offers various deposits. It also provides commercial, residential real estate, mortgage warehouse, and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers corporate and individual trust and agency, investment management, and real estate investment trust services; and sells various insurance products. It operates through a network of 78 full-service offices in northern and central Indiana and southern and central Michigan. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Michigan City, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Horizon Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Key revenue streams include commercial loans, residential mortgages, consumer loans, and investment securities. Additionally, the bank earns non-interest income through fees for various services such as account maintenance, transaction fees, and wealth management services. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and investment firms can also enhance its earnings potential by expanding its customer base and offering bundled financial services.

Horizon Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: the income statement deteriorated sharply in 2025 with losses and deeply negative margins despite higher revenue (major drag), while the balance sheet shows improved leverage and the cash flow picture held up better than accounting earnings but remains volatile.

Income Statement

Results deteriorated sharply in 2025: revenue surged (+57.4% YoY) but profitability collapsed, with net income swinging to a sizable loss and margins turning deeply negative. Prior years (2020–2024) showed generally positive, though moderating, profitability and steady revenue growth. The 2025 step-down overwhelms the otherwise decent multi-year track record and raises questions around credit costs, one-time charges, or funding pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved materially in 2025, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.59 versus ~1.76 in 2024, which is a clear balance-sheet positive. However, return on equity turned sharply negative in 2025, signaling that capital is not currently generating acceptable returns. Overall assets also declined versus 2024, suggesting some contraction/de-risking alongside weaker earnings power.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved in 2025 with meaningfully higher operating cash flow and solid free cash flow, and free cash flow nearly covered the reported net loss (i.e., cash performance held up better than accounting earnings). That said, cash flow has been volatile across years (notably weak in 2024 versus stronger 2021–2023), and the free-cash-flow growth rate is sharply negative, indicating an unstable trajectory.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	103.17M	355.38M	319.32M	278.07M	246.57M
Gross Profit	-30.39M	182.11M	180.30M	243.37M	230.35M
EBITDA	-187.62M	39.65M	50.97M	118.68M	116.32M
Net Income	-150.48M	35.43M	27.98M	93.41M	87.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.44B	7.80B	7.94B	7.87B	7.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	70.70M	527.84M	1.08B	1.12B	1.76B
Total Debt	404.49M	1.35B	1.04B	1.01B	828.27M
Total Liabilities	5.75B	7.04B	7.22B	7.20B	6.69B
Stockholders Equity	688.25M	763.58M	718.81M	677.38M	723.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.65M	1.28M	81.16M	87.95M	104.91M
Operating Cash Flow	45.66M	6.37M	88.94M	94.38M	106.35M
Investing Cash Flow	1.03B	-52.78M	329.52M	-1.02B	-344.85M
Financing Cash Flow	-906.59M	-186.68M	-15.44M	455.55M	582.30M

Horizon Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 16.93
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HBNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.82, below the 50-day MA of 17.56, and above the 200-day MA of 16.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HBNC.

Horizon Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AMAL	79 Outperform	$1.16B	11.32	13.88%	1.70%	4.33%	-2.20%
HFWA	71 Outperform	$1.08B	13.37	6.43%	3.91%	8.27%	54.96%
CPF	68 Neutral	$839.70M	11.15	11.65%	3.39%	1.22%	15.97%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CFFN	65 Neutral	$937.47M	12.86	6.53%	4.73%	6.27%	79.25%
AMTB	56 Neutral	$868.18M	17.18	7.21%	1.79%	15.37%	―
HBNC	52 Neutral	$867.11M	-5.37	-26.60%	3.50%	-78.64%	-913.67%

Horizon Bancorp Corporate Events

Horizon Bancorp Announces Board Changes and Director Departures

On January 26, 2026, Horizon Bancorp announced that long-serving director James B. Dworkin will retire from its Board of Directors at the end of his current term on May 7, 2026, following more than two decades of service to the company and Horizon Bank, where he has held key governance roles including chairing the Wealth Committee and serving on the Audit Committee. In a separate development on January 20, 2026, the company also reported that director Julie S. Freigang resigned from the Board effective that same day, stepping down from her roles on the Audit Committee and as chair of the Cyber Security Committee; board leadership and the CEO credited both directors with providing critical governance, strategic guidance, and oversight in areas such as the bank’s growth and cybersecurity risk management, underscoring an upcoming shift in board composition and expertise.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBNC) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Bancorp stock, see the HBNC Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Bancorp Reports Strong Fourth-Quarter Profit Rebound

For the three months ended December 31, 2025, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. reported a strong rebound in performance, with net income of $26.9 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, reversing a net loss of $222.0 million in the prior quarter and a $10.9 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2024. Fourth-quarter results reflected the successful completion of a balance sheet repositioning and stronger core community banking performance, with return on average assets rising to 1.63%, return on average equity to 15.71%, and net interest income climbing 8.7% sequentially and 19.5% year over year as net interest margin expanded to 4.29%. Loans held for investment grew 4.4% on an annualized linked-quarter basis, led by 9.1% annualized organic commercial loan growth, while funding costs improved as the company exited higher-cost transactional deposits and total interest-bearing liability costs fell 34 basis points. Credit quality remained solid, with annualized net charge-offs at 0.08% of average loans and non-performing assets at 0.63% of total assets, and expenses were broadly stable versus the third quarter despite select items tied to balance sheet actions. Despite a full-year 2025 net loss of $150.5 million, management highlighted that Horizon entered 2026 with peer-leading profitability metrics and a franchise positioned for durable earnings and continued top-tier returns for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBNC) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Bancorp stock, see the HBNC Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Bancorp Announces Dividend Approval

On December 16, 2025, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a dividend of $0.16 per share. This dividend will be payable on January 16, 2026, to stockholders who are recorded as of January 2, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBNC) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Bancorp stock, see the HBNC Stock Forecast page.