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Horizon Bancorp
(NASDAQ:HBNC)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$21.50
▲(7.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/23/26
The score is capped primarily by weak recent financial performance, with a steep revenue decline and deeply negative margins/ROE outweighing improved leverage and positive cash generation. Offsetting this, technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages and positive MACD. Valuation is mixed (attractive dividend yield but negative P/E tied to profitability issues), while the latest earnings call was constructive with reaffirmed guidance, strong profitability/capital metrics, and manageable risks.
Positive Factors
Exceptional deposit gathering
Sustained, above-trend deposit inflows (including ~$61M in noninterest-bearing deposits) improve funding stability and lower reliance on wholesale funding. This durable low-cost deposit base supports loan growth, liquidity buffers and margin resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue and margin deterioration
A dramatic revenue decline and deeply negative net margin signal weakened core earnings capacity. Sustained top-line contraction and negative margins erode operating leverage, forcing structural cost or strategic changes to restore profitability across multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Exceptional deposit gathering
Sustained, above-trend deposit inflows (including ~$61M in noninterest-bearing deposits) improve funding stability and lower reliance on wholesale funding. This durable low-cost deposit base supports loan growth, liquidity buffers and margin resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.06B
Dividend Yield3.11%
Average Volume (3M)348.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth-72.31%
EPS Growth-366.87%
CountryUS
Employees478
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.16
Shares Outstanding51,344,520
10 Day Avg. Volume570,181
30 Day Avg. Volume348,712
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.26
Price to Sales (P/S)8.38
P/FCF Ratio11.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.00Price Target Upside14.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$309.04M
Horizon Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. acts as the parent organization for Horizon Bank, overseeing the delivery of a full spectrum of commercial and retail banking services. The company provides a variety of deposit options and extends diverse loan products, incl...
How the Company Makes Money
Horizon Bancorp primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is generated from the spread between interest earned on loans and other interest-earning assets...
Horizon Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong fundamentals: margin expansion, mid-single-digit loan and deposit growth, double-digit noninterest income growth, very low loss experience, and improving capital ratios (CET1 11.09%, +28 bps). Headwinds were manageable and largely episodic — a $3.1M litigation accrual, isolated CRE payoffs and a few NPAs, modest deposit cost pressure, and constrained near-term securities reinvestment pickup. Overall, positives on profitability, credit quality and capital generation materially outweigh the limited operational and market challenges discussed.Positive Updates
Net Interest Margin Expansion
Net interest margin expanded 8 basis points in Q2 to 4.37%. Management expects H2 margin in the 4.30%–4.35% range. Weighted average new loan production rate was ~6.75% in Q2, supporting favorable asset yields (loan yields +9 bps vs prior quarter).
Negative Updates
Legal Charge and Litigation Accrual
The company recorded a $3.1M accrual in Q2 for an unfavorable litigation decision (approximately $0.05 per share impact). Management expects the accrual to remain until the appeal process concludes; the charge modestly impacted capital growth and expenses.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Interest Margin Expansion
Net interest margin expanded 8 basis points in Q2 to 4.37%. Management expects H2 margin in the 4.30%–4.35% range. Weighted average new loan production rate was ~6.75% in Q2, supporting favorable asset yields (loan yields +9 bps vs prior quarter).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance calling for period-end loan and deposit balances to grow mid‑single digits, average earning assets to modestly exceed $6.0 billion, and non‑FTE net interest income to increase in the low‑teens year‑over‑year; they expect the FTE net interest margin in H2 to be about 4.30%–4.35% (with Q2 NIM at 4.37%), assume one 25‑bp Fed hike in October, and anticipate average cash balances above the Q2 average of $102 million. Fee income is still expected in the mid‑$40 million range for the year, expenses (excluding the $3.1 million legal charge) are projected in the low‑to‑mid $160 million range, the effective tax rate is guided to 18%–20%, and capital generation should continue (Q2 CET1 11.09%, total risk‑based capital 15.01%). Supporting metrics cited include a Q2 weighted‑average new loan production rate of ~6.75%, ~ $150 million per quarter of cash flows rolling off at roughly 6.2%, Q2 weighted deposit production cost ~2.3% (interest‑bearing deposit cost ~1.94%–1.95%), and a one‑time legal accrual that reduced EPS by roughly $0.05 in the quarter.Horizon Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 95.43M | 103.17M | 355.38M | 319.32M | 278.07M | 246.57M |
| Gross Profit | -11.99M | -30.39M | 182.11M | 180.30M | 243.37M | 230.35M |
| EBITDA | -179.48M | -187.62M | 39.65M | 50.97M | 118.68M | 116.32M |
| Net Income | -143.99M | -150.48M | 35.43M | 27.98M | 93.41M | 87.09M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.57B | 6.44B | 7.80B | 7.94B | 7.87B | 7.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.12B | 70.70M | 527.84M | 1.08B | 1.12B | 1.76B |
| Total Debt | 379.09M | 404.49M | 1.35B | 1.04B | 1.01B | 828.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.85B | 5.75B | 7.04B | 7.22B | 7.20B | 6.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 726.19M | 688.25M | 763.58M | 718.81M | 677.38M | 723.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 96.02M | 74.28M | 1.28M | 81.16M | 87.95M | 104.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 98.42M | 79.23M | 6.37M | 88.94M | 94.38M | 106.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 929.25M | 979.48M | -52.78M | 329.52M | -1.02B | -344.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -947.63M | -1.21B | -186.68M | -15.44M | 455.55M | 582.30M |
Horizon Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
20.06
Price Trends
19.90
Positive
18.75
Positive
17.73
Positive
Market Momentum
0.19
Positive
57.25
Neutral
51.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HBNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.45, above the 50-day MA of 19.90, and above the 200-day MA of 17.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HBNC.
Horizon Bancorp Risk Analysis
Horizon Bancorp disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Horizon Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Horizon Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.53B | 13.47 | 14.12% | 1.25% | 9.56% | 12.20% | |
76 Outperform | $996.43M | 12.32 | 14.00% | 2.92% | 5.05% | 39.76% | |
70 Outperform | $1.22B | 14.03 | 7.69% | 3.22% | 17.16% | 47.28% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.10B | 13.43 | 8.01% | 4.39% | 7.53% | 38.21% | |
64 Neutral | $1.14B | 20.90 | 6.62% | 1.26% | 5.13% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $1.06B | -6.51 | -20.76% | 3.19% | -72.31% | -366.87% |
* Financial Sector Average
HBNC
Horizon Bancorp
20.57
5.13
33.24%
CFFN
Capitol Federal Financial
8.73
2.93
50.57%
CPF
Central Pacific Financial
38.70
11.32
41.36%
HFWA
Heritage Financial
29.74
7.24
32.17%
AMAL
Amalgamated Bank
51.06
22.67
79.83%
AMTB
Amerant Bancorp
29.17
9.40
47.57%
Horizon Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Horizon Bancorp Reports Strong Second-Quarter 2026 Profitability
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Horizon Bancorp reported unaudited results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, highlighting strong profitability despite a $3.1 million pre-tax legal charge. Quarterly net income was $24.9 million, or $0.49 per diluted share, up...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Horizon Bancorp Reserves $3 Million After Jury Verdict
Negative
Jun 30, 2026
On June 24, 2026, a jury returned a civil verdict against Horizon Bank in a lawsuit stemming from a 2018 incident involving repossession and credit reporting tied to a single vehicle financed through its legacy indirect auto business. The jury awa...
Dividends
Horizon Bancorp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Horizon Bancorp, Inc.’s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.16 per share for its common stock. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on July 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of July 3, 2026, underscoring ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Horizon Bancorp Shareholders Approve Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, at which 87.12% of the 51,225,946 eligible common shares were represented in person or by proxy, constituting a quorum and underscoring strong shareholder engagement. S...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.