Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $902.45M
• Dividend Yield: 3.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 348.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -78.64%
• EPS Growth: -913.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 841
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 51,217,434
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 570,181
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 348,712
• PEG Ratio: 0.75
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 548.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -27.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.45
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 16.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.00 ▲(0.22% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak TTM financial performance (negative profitability and strained cash flow trends). Offsetting this, the latest earnings call provided constructive forward guidance with strong reported Q4 profitability and margin momentum, and the technical setup is moderately positive with the stock trading above key moving averages. Valuation is mixed due to a supportive dividend but a negative P/E tied to recent losses.

Positive Factors

Sustained NIM expansion

Nine consecutive quarters of NIM expansion and a raised 2026 NIM guide (4.25%–4.35%) reflect durable balance-sheet repositioning: higher-yielding new loan production, lowered deposit betas (~40%), and planned securities cash flows. These structural mix changes support longer‑term net interest income resilience.

Commercial loan growth engine

Disciplined commercial lending drove sequential growth and higher-yielding production, building a more on-balance-sheet earning asset base. A relationship-focused branch network and commercial origination momentum provide sustainable core revenue and credit diversification over the medium term.

Capital generation from improved profitability

A strong profitability rebound produced tangible capital accretion and improved regulatory ratios, enabling organic capital generation. Durable, peer‑leading quarterly returns increase flexibility for dividend support, reserve building, and funding growth without immediate capital raises.

Negative Factors

TTM negative profitability and weak cash flow

The TTM period exhibits negative margins, declining revenue, and negative operating and free cash flow, undermining internal funding capacity. Persistent profitability and cash‑flow weakness raise the risk of capital strain, reduced reinvestment, and less resilience to economic stress over the coming months.

Rising nonperforming loans

NPLs increased materially quarter‑over‑quarter and management notes ongoing migrations through risk buckets. A sustained rise in problem loans would necessitate higher allowances, pressure earnings and capital generation, and could constrain lending capacity if trends continue over multiple quarters.

Planned deposit runoff and funding dynamics

Intentional runoff of higher‑cost transactional deposits reduces funding costs long term but creates near‑term liquidity and repricing risk. Shrinking core deposit balances may force reliance on alternative funding or slower loan growth, pressuring margins and operational flexibility over the medium term.

Horizon Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides a range of commercial and retail banking services. The company offers various deposits. It also provides commercial, residential real estate, mortgage warehouse, and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers corporate and individual trust and agency, investment management, and real estate investment trust services; and sells various insurance products. It operates through a network of 78 full-service offices in northern and central Indiana and southern and central Michigan. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Michigan City, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Horizon Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Key revenue streams include commercial loans, residential mortgages, consumer loans, and investment securities. Additionally, the bank earns non-interest income through fees for various services such as account maintenance, transaction fees, and wealth management services. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and investment firms can also enhance its earnings potential by expanding its customer base and offering bundled financial services.

Horizon Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements indicate material stress: the income statement shows declining revenue and negative margins in the TTM period, and cash flow trends are weak with negative operating cash flow and negative free cash flow growth. The balance sheet is relatively steadier with an improved debt-to-equity ratio and stable equity ratio, but negative ROE underscores ongoing profitability pressure.

Income Statement

Horizon Bancorp's income statement shows significant challenges, with a sharp decline in revenue and negative margins in the TTM period. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have turned negative, indicating substantial losses. Revenue growth has also been negative, reflecting a downturn in business performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which has improved in the TTM period. However, the return on equity is negative, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting some balance sheet strength despite operational challenges.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates negative free cash flow growth and negative operating cash flow in the TTM period. Although the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, it is primarily due to negative net income, which is concerning. Overall, cash flow management appears strained.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	103.17M	355.38M	319.32M	278.07M	246.57M	254.37M
Gross Profit	-30.39M	182.11M	180.30M	243.37M	230.35M	199.18M
EBITDA	-187.62M	39.65M	50.97M	118.68M	116.32M	90.70M
Net Income	-150.48M	35.43M	27.98M	93.41M	87.09M	68.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.88B	7.80B	7.94B	7.87B	7.41B	5.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	70.70M	527.84M	1.08B	1.12B	1.76B	1.39B
Total Debt	0.00	1.35B	1.04B	1.01B	828.27M	590.15M
Total Liabilities	4.60B	7.04B	7.22B	7.20B	6.69B	5.19B
Stockholders Equity	688.25M	763.58M	718.81M	677.38M	723.21M	692.22M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.65M	1.28M	81.16M	87.95M	104.91M	72.90M
Operating Cash Flow	45.66M	6.37M	88.94M	94.38M	106.35M	78.77M
Investing Cash Flow	1.03B	-52.78M	329.52M	-1.02B	-344.85M	-478.46M
Financing Cash Flow	-906.59M	-186.68M	-15.44M	455.55M	582.30M	550.48M

Horizon Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 17.96
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HBNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.41, above the 50-day MA of 17.31, and above the 200-day MA of 15.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HBNC.

Horizon Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CPF	79 Outperform	$873.77M	11.39	11.65%	3.39%	1.22%	15.97%
AMAL	79 Outperform	$1.16B	11.39	13.88%	1.70%	4.33%	-2.20%
HFWA	76 Outperform	$876.42M	13.17	6.43%	3.91%	8.27%	54.96%
CFFN	74 Outperform	$956.87M	12.96	6.53%	4.73%	6.27%	79.25%
AMTB	69 Neutral	$895.46M	17.28	7.21%	1.79%	15.37%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HBNC	57 Neutral	$902.45M	-5.70	-26.60%	3.50%	-78.64%	-913.67%

Horizon Bancorp Corporate Events

Horizon Bancorp Announces Board Changes and Director Departures

On January 26, 2026, Horizon Bancorp announced that long-serving director James B. Dworkin will retire from its Board of Directors at the end of his current term on May 7, 2026, following more than two decades of service to the company and Horizon Bank, where he has held key governance roles including chairing the Wealth Committee and serving on the Audit Committee. In a separate development on January 20, 2026, the company also reported that director Julie S. Freigang resigned from the Board effective that same day, stepping down from her roles on the Audit Committee and as chair of the Cyber Security Committee; board leadership and the CEO credited both directors with providing critical governance, strategic guidance, and oversight in areas such as the bank’s growth and cybersecurity risk management, underscoring an upcoming shift in board composition and expertise.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBNC) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Bancorp stock, see the HBNC Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Bancorp Reports Strong Fourth-Quarter Profit Rebound

For the three months ended December 31, 2025, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. reported a strong rebound in performance, with net income of $26.9 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, reversing a net loss of $222.0 million in the prior quarter and a $10.9 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2024. Fourth-quarter results reflected the successful completion of a balance sheet repositioning and stronger core community banking performance, with return on average assets rising to 1.63%, return on average equity to 15.71%, and net interest income climbing 8.7% sequentially and 19.5% year over year as net interest margin expanded to 4.29%. Loans held for investment grew 4.4% on an annualized linked-quarter basis, led by 9.1% annualized organic commercial loan growth, while funding costs improved as the company exited higher-cost transactional deposits and total interest-bearing liability costs fell 34 basis points. Credit quality remained solid, with annualized net charge-offs at 0.08% of average loans and non-performing assets at 0.63% of total assets, and expenses were broadly stable versus the third quarter despite select items tied to balance sheet actions. Despite a full-year 2025 net loss of $150.5 million, management highlighted that Horizon entered 2026 with peer-leading profitability metrics and a franchise positioned for durable earnings and continued top-tier returns for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBNC) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Bancorp stock, see the HBNC Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Bancorp Announces Dividend Approval

On December 16, 2025, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a dividend of $0.16 per share. This dividend will be payable on January 16, 2026, to stockholders who are recorded as of January 2, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (HBNC) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Bancorp stock, see the HBNC Stock Forecast page.