Horizon Bancorp [In] (HBNC)
NASDAQ:HBNC
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Horizon Bancorp
(NASDAQ:HBNC)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▼(-1.42% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/19/26
The score is held back primarily by 2025 financial statement deterioration (losses and negative margins) and weak price/indicator trends (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include constructive 2026 guidance with strong NIM momentum and a supportive dividend yield, alongside improved leverage and better operating/free cash flow versus earnings.
Positive Factors
Net Interest Margin Expansion
Sustained NIM expansion and explicit 2026 guidance indicate structural improvement in core spread generation. Higher NIMs, supported by loan repricing and low deposit beta, increase durable net interest income sensitivity and provide a multi-quarter tailwind to earnings power even if rates ease modestly.
Negative Factors
2025 Earnings Deterioration
A large accounting loss and deeply negative margins in 2025 materially weaken the earnings track record and strain capital generation. Such a structural earnings shock increases volatility in retained earnings, may constrain growth initiatives, and raises sensitivity to future credit or interest-rate shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Net Interest Margin Expansion
Sustained NIM expansion and explicit 2026 guidance indicate structural improvement in core spread generation. Higher NIMs, supported by loan repricing and low deposit beta, increase durable net interest income sensitivity and provide a multi-quarter tailwind to earnings power even if rates ease modestly.
Read all positive factors
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$837.03M
Dividend Yield3.5%
Average Volume (3M)348.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth-78.64%
EPS Growth-913.67%
CountryUS
Employees841
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.54
Shares Outstanding51,225,945
10 Day Avg. Volume570,181
30 Day Avg. Volume348,712
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.26
Price to Sales (P/S)8.38
P/FCF Ratio20.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-38.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.00Price Target Upside29.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$307.66M
Horizon Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides a range of commercial and retail banking services. The company offers various deposits. It also provides commercial, residential real estate, mortgage wareho...
How the Company Makes Money
Horizon Bancorp primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is generated from the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets (such as commer...
Horizon Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 21, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong profitability and margin momentum driven by successful balance sheet repositioning, solid commercial loan growth, improving capital metrics, and growing fee income. Credit performance remains generally healthy with low annualized charge-off rates, although there is a modest uptick in non-performing loans and an increased allowance driven by economic assumptions. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance and emphasized a disciplined, relationship-focused strategy. Overall, the positives (meaningful NIM expansion, strong returns, loan growth, fee income gains, and capital accretion) materially outweigh the modest credit and deposit headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability Metrics
Annualized return on average assets above 1.6% and return on average equity approaching 16% for Q4 2025, demonstrating peer-leading profitability and durable returns.
Negative Updates
Increase in Nonperforming Loans (NPLs)
Non-performing loans rose to $34.9 million, representing 72 basis points of loans in Q4 (up from 64 bps in Q3 and 56 bps in Q4 2024), a modest but notable deterioration in this metric.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability Metrics
Annualized return on average assets above 1.6% and return on average equity approaching 16% for Q4 2025, demonstrating peer-leading profitability and durable returns.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a constructive 2026 outlook with net interest margin now expected at 4.25%–4.35%, non-FTE net interest income growing in the low teens year‑over‑year (implying roughly a mid-to-high $250M to ~$260M run-rate), average earning assets modestly exceeding $6.0 billion, and period‑end loans and deposits each growing mid‑single digits (with deposits modestly outpacing loans). The plan assumes two 25‑bp rate cuts (April and October) but expects limited NIM volatility given realized deposit betas of ~40% in Q4; new loan production coupons remain above 6.5% while loan cash flows rolling off are below 6%, and the bank expects $75M–$100M of principal securities cash flows at a weighted‑average FTE rate of ~4.75%. Management targets fee income in the mid‑$40M range, operating expenses in the mid‑$160M range, an effective tax rate of 18%–20%, and noted Q4 run‑rates of NIM 4.29%, noninterest income $11.5M, expenses $40.6M, allowance for credit losses $51.3M (1.05% of loans), Q4 net charge‑offs $1.0M (8 bps annualized) and full‑year charge‑offs ~$2.9M (6 bps), while emphasizing a balance sheet with >80% earning assets in loans and deposits constituting 93% of non‑equity funding.Horizon Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
27
Negative
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 103.17M | 355.38M | 319.32M | 278.07M | 246.57M |
| Gross Profit | -30.39M | 182.11M | 180.30M | 243.37M | 230.35M |
| EBITDA | -187.62M | 39.65M | 50.97M | 118.68M | 116.32M |
| Net Income | -150.48M | 35.43M | 27.98M | 93.41M | 87.09M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.44B | 7.80B | 7.94B | 7.87B | 7.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 70.70M | 527.84M | 1.08B | 1.12B | 1.76B |
| Total Debt | 404.49M | 1.35B | 1.04B | 1.01B | 828.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.75B | 7.04B | 7.22B | 7.20B | 6.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 688.25M | 763.58M | 718.81M | 677.38M | 723.21M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 41.65M | 1.28M | 81.16M | 87.95M | 104.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 45.66M | 6.37M | 88.94M | 94.38M | 106.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.03B | -52.78M | 329.52M | -1.02B | -344.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -906.59M | -186.68M | -15.44M | 455.55M | 582.30M |
Horizon Bancorp Technical Analysis
Neutral
16.23
Price Trends
17.22
Negative
17.00
Negative
16.26
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.36
Negative
43.90
Neutral
69.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HBNC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.32, below the 50-day MA of 17.22, and below the 200-day MA of 16.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HBNC.
Horizon Bancorp Risk Analysis
Horizon Bancorp disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Horizon Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Horizon Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $1.14B | 9.00 | 13.88% | 1.70% | 4.33% | -2.20% | |
71 Outperform | $1.05B | 9.03 | 7.51% | 3.91% | 8.27% | 54.96% | |
68 Neutral | $840.49M | 10.73 | 11.65% | 3.39% | 1.22% | 15.97% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $921.89M | 10.81 | 6.53% | 4.73% | 6.27% | 79.25% | |
56 Neutral | $876.23M | 15.23 | 5.64% | 1.79% | 15.37% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $837.03M | -5.75 | -20.64% | 3.50% | -78.64% | -913.67% |
* Financial Sector Average
HBNC
Horizon Bancorp
16.34
1.45
9.70%
CFFN
Capitol Federal Financial
7.10
1.69
31.14%
CPF
Central Pacific Financial
31.97
5.48
20.68%
HFWA
Heritage Financial
25.58
2.17
9.26%
AMAL
Amalgamated Bank
38.34
9.46
32.77%
AMTB
Amerant Bancorp
21.78
0.90
4.31%
Horizon Bancorp Corporate Events
Dividends
Horizon Bancorp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Horizon Bancorp, Inc.’s board of directors approved a cash dividend of $0.16 per share for its common shareholders. The dividend will be paid on April 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of April 3, 2026, underscoring t...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Horizon Bancorp Streamlines Leadership, Eliminates Chief Administration Role
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. said it will eliminate the role of Chief Administration Officer at both the company and Horizon Bank, leading to the departure of Executive Vice President and Chief Administration Officer Mark E. Secor on Ma...
Executive/Board Changes
Horizon Bancorp Announces Board Changes and Director Departures
Neutral
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Horizon Bancorp announced that long-serving director James B. Dworkin will retire from its Board of Directors at the end of his current term on May 7, 2026, following more than two decades of service to the company and Horizon...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Horizon Bancorp Reports Strong Fourth-Quarter Profit Rebound
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
For the three months ended December 31, 2025, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. reported a strong rebound in performance, with net income of $26.9 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, reversing a net loss of $222.0 million in the prior quarter and a $10.9 mil...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.