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Gray Media
(NYSE:GTN)
Select Model
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(38.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
GTN scores in the mid-60s primarily due to improving financial risk metrics and solid TTM cash generation, tempered by inconsistent profitability. Technicals are supportive with the stock above major moving averages and positive momentum indicators. Valuation is mixed: the dividend yield is attractive, but the negative P/E reflects recent losses. The latest earnings call was broadly positive on execution and guidance beats, with core ad softness and elevated leverage remaining the main constraints.
Positive Factors
Recurring retransmission and digital growth
Retransmission provides recurring, contract-based distribution revenue, while digital growth broadens monetization beyond linear television. Together, these streams can improve revenue durability and reduce reliance on cyclical spot advertising.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and interest burden
Although debt reduction is underway, leverage remains high and interest expense consumes substantial cash flow. This limits flexibility for investment or acquisitions and leaves results sensitive to operating weakness and refinancing execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring retransmission and digital growth
Retransmission provides recurring, contract-based distribution revenue, while digital growth broadens monetization beyond linear television. Together, these streams can improve revenue durability and reduce reliance on cyclical spot advertising.
Read all positive factors
Gray Media (GTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$544.68M
Dividend Yield6.43%
Average Volume (3M)1.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth-11.30%
EPS Growth-138.09%
CountryUS
Employees9,374
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryBroadcasting
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.47
Shares Outstanding93,115,074
10 Day Avg. Volume1,093,150
30 Day Avg. Volume1,330,899
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.15
P/FCF Ratio2.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.17Price Target Upside55.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.60B
Gray Media Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gray Media, Inc. is a leading television broadcasting entity that manages an extensive portfolio of TV stations and digital assets throughout the United States, reaching 113 distinct television markets. In addition to its primary channels, the com...
How the Company Makes Money
Gray Television primarily generates revenue from (1) advertising and (2) retransmission and related distribution fees, with additional contributions from production and other services.
1) Advertising revenue (local, national, political): Gray sel...
Gray Media Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat expectations, political and retransmission revenue outperformed guidance, digital growth accelerated, and management executed active M&A while taking concrete balance sheet actions (liquidity, debt repurchases, preferred redemption and authorized buybacks). Key challenges include persistent core advertising softness (mid-single-digit pressure ex-M&A), elevated corporate transaction costs, and a still-elevated leverage profile (total net leverage ~5.73x) that is improving but not yet to plan. Management emphasized using political cash flow to accelerate deleveraging and highlighted margin and synergy opportunities tied to retransmission and cost rationalization, but macro and timing risks remain.Positive Updates
Revenue Beat and Year-over-Year Growth
Total revenue of $839 million in Q2 2026, up 9% year-over-year and about $9 million above the high end of adjusted guidance.
Negative Updates
Core Advertising Softness
Core advertising was down 1% on an as-reported basis in Q2; adjusted for Q2 acquisitions core would be down mid-single digits year-over-year, with consumer-facing categories (restaurants, supermarkets, services) and some communications/health categories weak.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Beat and Year-over-Year Growth
Total revenue of $839 million in Q2 2026, up 9% year-over-year and about $9 million above the high end of adjusted guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that Q2 came in ahead of guidance with total revenue of $839 million (up 9% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $214 million and net income attributable to shareholders of $21 million; political was $83 million (vs. prior guide $60–70M) with Q3 political guidance of $165–185 million, net retransmission was $150 million (including ~$6M from Q2 acquisitions) with net retrans margins a touch above 40% and no further retrans negotiations in 2026; Q3 core advertising is guided flat on an as‑reported basis (which implies down mid‑single digits ex‑acquisitions), digital grew 12% YoY in Q2 with new local direct +5%, broadcast expenses before D&A were $569 million (middle of range, including ~$30M of transaction-related Opex), and management expects to deploy essentially all incremental political cash flow to deleveraging — liquidity was a little over $900 million at quarter end, leverage ratios were 2.55x first‑lien / 3.71x consolidated secured / 5.73x consolidated total net, the company recorded ~0.18 turns of deleveraging from acquisitions (vs. an expected 0.25), CapEx guidance was lowered to $120–130 million (from $140M), full‑year tax guide $80–100 million, full‑year interest expense guide ~$440 million (with potential to fall ~$30M+ via refinancings), and the company has redeemed $50 million of Series A preferred, repurchased $120 million of debt (plus board authorization to repurchase up to $250 million open‑market).Gray Media Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.15B | 3.10B | 3.64B | 3.28B | 3.68B | 2.41B |
| Gross Profit | 2.98B | 2.99B | 1.24B | 898.00M | 1.43B | 803.00M |
| EBITDA | 787.00M | 598.00M | 1.25B | 697.00M | 1.33B | 594.00M |
| Net Income | -26.00M | -85.00M | 375.00M | -76.00M | 455.00M | 90.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.44B | 10.44B | 10.54B | 10.64B | 11.15B | 11.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 176.00M | 368.00M | 135.00M | 21.00M | 61.00M | 189.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.89B | 5.81B | 5.69B | 6.24B | 6.53B | 6.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.71B | 7.63B | 7.61B | 8.02B | 8.39B | 8.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.73B | 2.81B | 2.93B | 2.62B | 2.77B | 2.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 146.00M | 181.00M | 608.00M | 300.00M | 393.00M | 93.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 250.00M | 289.00M | 751.00M | 648.00M | 829.00M | 300.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -339.00M | -63.00M | -28.00M | -291.00M | -503.00M | -3.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 66.00M | 7.00M | -609.00M | -397.00M | -454.00M | 2.65B |
Gray Media Risk Analysis
Gray Media disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gray Media reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gray Media Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $544.68M | -10.60 | -0.94% | 8.04% | -11.30% | -138.09% | |
63 Neutral | $829.27M | 222.25 | 6.98% | 1.83% | 71.38% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
54 Neutral | $62.11M | -6.73 | -5.57% | 11.66% | -5.31% | -514.49% | |
49 Neutral | $45.41M | -0.21 | -401.05% | ― | -16.12% | -1061.96% | |
45 Neutral | $319.71M | -0.23 | -127.81% | ― | -14.18% | -2948.71% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GTN
Gray Media
4.98
-0.37
-6.97%
BBGI
Beasley Broadcast Group
22.34
17.74
385.65%
SSP
E. W. Scripps Company Class A
3.26
0.29
9.76%
EVC
Entravision
8.89
6.63
294.06%
SGA
Saga Communications
9.40
-2.59
-21.58%
Gray Media Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gray Media Prices $750 Million Senior Secured Notes
Positive
Aug 18, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. announced it had priced a $750 million offering of 7.500% senior secured first lien notes due 2034 at 100% of par, with closing expected on August 21, 2026 subject to customary conditions. The company plans to ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gray Media Launches New Notes to Refinance Debt
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. announced it had launched a private offering of up to $750 million in senior secured first lien notes due 2034, exempt from U.S. Securities Act registration, targeting qualified institutional buyers and certain...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Gray Media Launches New Investor Outreach and Presentations
Positive
Aug 7, 2026
On August 7, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. began scheduling periodic meetings and presentations for prospective investors, signaling an effort to engage more actively with the investment community. The company has prepared a slide deck that may be used o...
Business Operations and Strategy
Gray Television Executes Significant Debt Repurchase Transaction
Positive
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. repurchased $100 million of its 10.500% senior secured first lien notes due 2029 and $20 million of its 5.375% senior notes due 2031 in a privately negotiated transaction. The notes were bought back at par plus a...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Gray Television Raises Debt to Fund Station Acquisition
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Gray Media completed a private placement of $70 million in 7.250% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2033, sold at par plus accrued interest to accredited investors, expanding its outstanding notes of this series to $845 million...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.