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Gray Television (GTN)
NYSE:GTN
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Gray Television (GTN) AI Stock Analysis

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GTN

Gray Television

(NYSE:GTN)

Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(6.38% Upside)
Gray Television's overall stock score reflects a balance of strengths and challenges. The company's operational efficiency and strategic financial maneuvers are significant positives, while high leverage and recent revenue declines pose risks. The stock's undervaluation and attractive dividend yield provide additional appeal.
Positive Factors
Cost Reduction
The company’s cost reduction efforts have exceeded $60 million in annual savings.
Debt Management
The company is continuing to make progress on its debt load and save on interest expense, having reduced debt outstanding by $520 million in 2024.
Profitability
Lower-than-expected expense levels supported profitability, with EBITDA of $169 million, ahead of prior estimates.
Negative Factors
Advertising Decline
The company’s guidance reflects the uncertain outlook, with expectations of a mid-single-digit advertising decline.
Challenging Trends
Several challenging trends include continuing linear churn, a slowing pace of progress in retransmission revenue generation and still-high programming costs obligations.
Leverage Risk
The high degree of leverage adds to the risk profile, particularly if core trends deteriorate.

Gray Television (GTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Gray Television Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGray Television, Inc., a television broadcasting company, owns and/or operates television stations and digital assets in the United States. It also broadcasts secondary digital channels affiliated to ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX, as well as various other networks and program services, including CW Plus Network, MY Network, the MeTV Network, Justice, This TV Network, Antenna TV, Telemundo, Cozi, Heroes and Icons, and MOVIES! Network; and local news/weather channels in various markets. In addition, the company offers video program production services. It owns and operates television stations and digital assets that serve 113 television markets in the United States. The company was formerly known as Gray Communications Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Gray Television, Inc. in August 2002. Gray Television, Inc. was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyGray Television generates revenue primarily through advertising sales, which account for a significant portion of its income. Local businesses and national advertisers purchase airtime to promote their products and services on Gray's television stations. Additionally, the company earns revenue from retransmission consent fees, where cable and satellite providers pay to carry Gray's broadcast signals. Another source of income comes from digital media initiatives, including streaming services and online advertising. Gray Television also benefits from partnerships with various networks and content providers that enhance its programming offerings and attract more viewers, leading to increased advertising revenue.

Gray Television Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mix of achievements and challenges. While there was significant M&A activity, strategic transactions, and excellence in journalism, the company faced a decline in revenue, a net loss, and a decrease in Adjusted EBITDA. The sentiment is balanced with notable progress in debt reduction and strong political advertising revenue compensating for some of the financial setbacks.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded Revenue and Expense Guidance
Total revenue in Q2 2025 was $772 million, 1% above the high end of original guidance and expenses were below the low end of original guidance.
Significant M&A Activity
Acquired television stations from Scripps, Sagamore Hill, Block Communications, and Allen Media, adding a net 6 new markets and creating 11 new Big 4 duopolies.
Debt and Leverage Reduction
Reduced outstanding indebtedness by $22 million in Q2 2025, with first lien leverage ratio at 2.99x and total leverage ratio at 5.6x. Completed $900 million of senior secured second lien notes and $775 million of first lien notes, extending maturities and reducing interest costs.
Journalistic Excellence
Received 81 regional Edward R. Murrow Awards for excellence in journalism, with KWTX spearheading a $1.1 million fundraising campaign for Texas floods.
Strong Political Advertising Revenue
Political ad revenue in Q2 2025 was $9 million, significantly above expectations for an off-cycle year.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total revenue decreased by 7% compared to Q2 2024.
Net Loss
Reported a net loss of $56 million in Q2 2025 compared to a net income of $22 million in Q2 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA Decrease
Adjusted EBITDA was $169 million, a decrease of 25% from Q2 2024.
Core Ad Revenue Challenges
Core ad revenue expected to be down low to mid-single digits in Q3 2025, with automotive and restaurant categories facing declines.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, Gray Media reported total revenue of $772 million, which exceeded the high end of their initial guidance by 1% but marked a 7% decrease from the same quarter in 2024. The company experienced a net loss of $56 million compared to a net income of $22 million in the previous year, and adjusted EBITDA fell by 25% to $169 million. However, political advertising revenue surpassed expectations at $9 million, significantly higher than the projected $2-3 million. On the capital front, Gray Media reduced its outstanding debt by $22 million during the quarter, achieving a first lien leverage ratio of 2.99x and a total leverage ratio of 5.6x. The company also executed a $900 million senior secured second lien notes offering and increased its revolving credit commitment to $750 million, which collectively are projected to decrease their leverage by a quarter turn once the transactions are closed.

Gray Television Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Gray Television demonstrates strong operational performance with improving profit margins and revenue growth. However, its high leverage and capital allocation risks warrant caution. Strong free cash flow growth and cash conversion rates are positive indicators of financial health, yet careful management of debt levels and strategic investments are crucial for sustained performance.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Gray Television shows a strong gross profit margin of 96.56% in 2024, indicating efficient cost management. However, net profit margin improved to 10.29% from a negative margin in 2023, reflecting a recovery in profitability. Revenue growth rate from 2023 to 2024 was 11.07%, which is positive but somewhat volatile given past fluctuations. EBIT and EBITDA margins in 2024 are robust at 23.36%, showing strong core operational performance.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04 in 2024, indicating significant leverage which may pose financial risk. Return on equity for 2024 stands at 16.42%, which is a healthy return for shareholders. However, the unavailability of total assets data limits the analysis of equity ratio, which could provide further insight into financial stability.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Gray Television's free cash flow exhibited strong growth of 102.67% in 2024, enhancing financial flexibility. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.00, showing strong cash generation relative to reported earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 1.62, indicating efficient conversion of earnings into cash. However, high investing and financing cash flow outflows highlight potential risks in capital allocation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.55B3.64B3.28B3.68B2.41B2.38B
Gross Profit1.71B1.24B898.00M1.43B803.00M989.00M
EBITDA1.04B1.25B697.00M1.33B594.00M936.00M
Net Income200.00M375.00M-76.00M455.00M90.00M410.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.35B10.54B10.64B11.15B11.11B7.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments199.00M135.00M21.00M61.00M189.00M773.00M
Total Debt5.66B5.69B6.24B6.53B6.83B4.03B
Total Liabilities7.52B7.61B8.02B8.39B8.70B5.24B
Stockholders Equity2.83B2.93B2.62B2.77B2.41B2.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow708.00M608.00M300.00M393.00M93.00M542.00M
Operating Cash Flow828.00M751.00M648.00M829.00M300.00M652.00M
Investing Cash Flow-92.00M-28.00M-291.00M-503.00M-3.53B-211.00M
Financing Cash Flow-612.00M-609.00M-397.00M-454.00M2.65B120.00M

Gray Television Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.11
Price Trends
50DMA
5.24
Positive
100DMA
4.51
Positive
200DMA
4.13
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.30
Positive
RSI
62.26
Neutral
STOCH
48.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.73, above the 50-day MA of 5.24, and above the 200-day MA of 4.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GTN.

Gray Television Risk Analysis

Gray Television disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gray Television reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Gray Television Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$3.40B7.6215.43%2.36%5.89%14.89%
66
Neutral
$642.10M3.887.23%5.24%7.03%1727.49%
64
Neutral
$76.38M35.571.23%8.29%-1.72%-66.67%
62
Neutral
$254.40M6.258.30%5.25%
60
Neutral
$46.28B4.13-13.12%4.13%1.85%-42.71%
54
Neutral
$228.35M-75.89%7.97%-58.44%-130.21%
44
Neutral
$15.31M-274.30%-4.57%-103.56%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GTN
Gray Television
6.11
1.87
44.10%
CMLS
Cumulus Media
0.16
-1.33
-89.26%
SSP
E. W. Scripps Company Class A
3.01
1.23
69.10%
EVC
Entravision
2.51
0.75
42.61%
SGA
Saga Communications
12.07
-1.21
-9.11%
TGNA
TEGNA
21.16
7.96
60.30%

Gray Television Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Gray Television Engages with Investors Starting August 2025
Neutral
Aug 8, 2025

Gray Media, Inc. announced that starting August 8, 2025, it plans to engage with prospective investors through meetings and presentations. This initiative is part of the company’s strategy to potentially enhance its investor relations and market presence, although the information shared in these meetings will not be considered filed under certain securities regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Gray Television Completes $775M Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 25, 2025

On July 25, 2025, Gray Media, Inc. announced the completion of its offering of $775 million in 7.250% senior secured first lien notes due 2033. The proceeds from this issuance are being utilized to repay portions of the company’s existing term loans and revolving credit facility, as well as for general corporate purposes. This financial maneuver is expected to impact Gray’s debt structure by reducing outstanding liabilities and potentially enhancing its financial flexibility. The notes are governed by an indenture that includes covenants limiting certain financial activities, and they are guaranteed by Gray’s restricted subsidiaries.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Gray Television Announces $775 Million Note Offering
Positive
Jul 23, 2025

On July 22, 2025, Gray Media, Inc. announced the pricing of a $775 million offering of 7.250% senior secured first lien notes due 2033, which marks an increase of $75 million from the previously announced amount. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repay portions of existing term loans and revolving credit facility, cover fees and expenses related to the offering, and support general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move is expected to impact Gray’s operations by restructuring its debt and potentially improving its financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Gray Television Announces $700M Notes Offering Plan
Positive
Jul 22, 2025

On July 22, 2025, Gray Media, Inc. announced its plan to offer $700 million in senior secured first lien notes due 2033, subject to market conditions. The proceeds from this offering, along with borrowings under the company’s revolving credit facility, will be used to repay portions of its term loans due in 2028 and 2029. This strategic financial move is aimed at optimizing Gray’s debt structure and potentially improving its financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Gray Television Completes $900M Note Issuance to Manage Debt
Positive
Jul 18, 2025

On July 18, 2025, Gray Media, Inc. completed the issuance of $900 million in 9.625% senior secured second lien notes due 2032. The proceeds from these notes, along with borrowings from its revolving credit facility, were used to redeem existing senior notes, repay part of a term loan, and cover associated fees. This financial maneuver aims to strengthen Gray’s financial structure by managing its debt obligations effectively. Additionally, Gray amended its senior credit facility, increasing its revolving credit commitments by $50 million and extending the maturity date to December 1, 2028, enhancing its liquidity and financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Gray Television Announces $900 Million Notes Offering
Neutral
Jul 9, 2025

On July 8, 2025, Gray Media, Inc. announced the pricing of a $900 million offering of 9.625% senior secured second lien notes due 2032, marking a $150 million increase from the previously announced amount. The proceeds from this offering, along with borrowings under the company’s revolving credit facility, will be used to redeem existing 7.000% senior notes due 2027, repay part of a term loan, and cover related fees and expenses, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and debt management strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Gray Media Announces $750M Notes Offering
Neutral
Jul 8, 2025

On July 8, 2025, Gray Media announced the commencement of an offering of $750 million in senior secured second lien notes due 2032, intended to redeem existing notes and repay portions of term loans. This financial maneuver aims to enhance the company’s balance sheet and financial flexibility. Additionally, Gray Media updated its financial guidance for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting recent market conditions and developments, including a non-cash impairment charge of $29 million related to its Atlanta station, WANF, which will cease its CBS affiliation in August 2025. These strategic moves are expected to impact Gray Media’s financial operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Gray Television Renews CBS Affiliations, Plans Atlanta Shift
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

On June 2, 2025, Gray Media announced the renewal of 52 out of its 53 CBS network affiliations in an agreement with CBS, a subsidiary of Paramount Global. Effective August 16, 2025, Gray’s Atlanta station WANF will discontinue its CBS affiliation to become an independent station focusing on the Atlanta market. This strategic move may impact Gray’s operations by allowing it to tailor content specifically for the Atlanta audience, potentially strengthening its market position in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 14, 2025