Gray Television (GTN)
NYSE:GTN
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Gray Television
(NYSE:GTN)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-32.32% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
GTN’s score is held down primarily by weakened financial performance—sharp recent revenue contraction, recurring losses, deteriorating free cash flow, and high leverage. Technicals also remain bearish with the price below major moving averages, despite oversold readings. The main offsets are a high dividend yield and a relatively constructive earnings update highlighting liquidity, political/digital tailwinds, and improved distribution visibility, though near-term ad softness and leverage remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Retransmission / Distribution Visibility
Clearing the DISH blackout and closing major MVPD renewals materially reduces distribution risk and restores recurring retransmission fees. That permanence improves multi-month cash flow visibility and lowers the odds of surprise revenue interruptions, supporting stable margins and negotiation leverage into 2026.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Substantial net leverage constrains financial flexibility and increases interest and covenant risk over the medium term. High debt limits the firm's ability to absorb ad cycles or fund organic growth without refinancing, making deleveraging dependent on successful integration synergies and recurring cash generation over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Retransmission / Distribution Visibility
Clearing the DISH blackout and closing major MVPD renewals materially reduces distribution risk and restores recurring retransmission fees. That permanence improves multi-month cash flow visibility and lowers the odds of surprise revenue interruptions, supporting stable margins and negotiation leverage into 2026.
Read all positive factors
Gray Television (GTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$450.47M
Dividend Yield6.45%
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth-14.49%
EPS Growth-164.07%
CountryUS
Employees9,118
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryBroadcasting
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.39
Shares Outstanding92,869,150
10 Day Avg. Volume1,105,243
30 Day Avg. Volume1,361,047
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.15
P/FCF Ratio2.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap13.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.75Price Target Upside14.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.48B
Gray Television Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gray Media, Inc., a television broadcasting company, owns and/or operates television stations and digital assets in the United States. It also broadcasts secondary digital channels affiliated to ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX, as well as various other net...
How the Company Makes Money
Gray Television primarily generates revenue from (1) advertising and (2) retransmission and related distribution fees, with additional contributions from production and other services.
1) Advertising revenue (local, national, political): Gray sel...
Gray Television Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call presents a constructive operational and strategic picture: revenue met guidance (total revenue $768M), Adjusted EBITDA was solid ($154M), digital growth and political ad strength provide clear growth drivers, multiple acquisitions and a resolved DISH dispute reduce near-term distribution risk, and liquidity exceeded $1 billion. Offsetting these positives are near-term ad softness guidance for Q2 (mid-single digit core ad decline), a Q1 net retransmission revenue decline of $4M due to a blackout, elevated leverage (total net leverage ~5.94x) and short-term expense timing pressures (broadcast op expenses +4%, legal/M&A costs). Management expects net retrans growth for the full year, deleveraging as acquisitions integrate, and continued upside from political and digital, leading to a favorable bias despite some notable short-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue at High End of Guidance
Total revenue of $768 million in Q1 2026, at the high end of the company's guidance for the quarter; Adjusted EBITDA of $154 million and a minimal net loss attributable to common stockholders of $330,000.
Negative Updates
Core Advertising Softness and Q2 Guidance
Management expects Q2 2026 core ad revenue to be down mid-single digits versus Q2 2025; cited causes include Middle East-related economic uncertainty (oil price volatility) delaying advertiser commitments and the NCAA Final Four rotating away from CBS (prior-year April benefit ~ $5 million).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue at High End of Guidance
Total revenue of $768 million in Q1 2026, at the high end of the company's guidance for the quarter; Adjusted EBITDA of $154 million and a minimal net loss attributable to common stockholders of $330,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management gave Q1 and forward-looking metrics and quantified guidance: Q1 revenue was $768M with Adjusted EBITDA $154M, net loss attributable to common of $0.33M, total operating expenses before D&A/etc. $622M (down $7M YoY) and broadcasting expenses down $22M YoY; broadcasting station operating expenses ex‑affiliation fees were up 4% YoY; Q1 CapEx was $19M (vs $15M in 2025). They reported liquidity of over $1B and 3/31/26 leverage of 2.56x first‑lien, 3.79x secured and 5.94x total net leverage (pro forma for four station acquisitions). For Q2/FY26 guidance they expect core advertising to be down mid‑single digits vs Q2 2025, political revenue of $60–$70M in Q2 (Q1 political was $30M; $26M in 2022), Q2 broadcasting expenses guided down ~3% at the midpoint vs 2025, net retransmission revenue trending to low‑single‑digit growth for the year despite a $4M Q1 decline, company‑wide CapEx of $140M for 2026 (back‑end weighted), a reduced full‑year tax guide of $90–$110M (down $25M), and an expectation that recent and pending M&A closings will drive deleveraging and improved leverage metrics.Gray Television Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.08B | 3.10B | 3.64B | 3.28B | 3.68B | 2.41B |
| Gross Profit | 2.93B | 2.99B | 1.24B | 898.00M | 1.43B | 803.00M |
| EBITDA | 970.00M | 598.00M | 1.25B | 697.00M | 1.33B | 594.00M |
| Net Income | -96.00M | -85.00M | 375.00M | -76.00M | 455.00M | 90.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.32B | 10.44B | 10.54B | 10.64B | 11.15B | 11.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 259.00M | 368.00M | 135.00M | 21.00M | 61.00M | 189.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.81B | 5.81B | 5.69B | 6.24B | 6.53B | 6.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.56B | 7.63B | 7.61B | 8.02B | 8.39B | 8.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.76B | 2.81B | 2.93B | 2.62B | 2.77B | 2.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 46.00M | 181.00M | 608.00M | 300.00M | 393.00M | 93.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 158.00M | 289.00M | 751.00M | 648.00M | 829.00M | 300.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -125.00M | -63.00M | -28.00M | -291.00M | -503.00M | -3.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.00M | 7.00M | -609.00M | -397.00M | -454.00M | 2.65B |
Gray Television Technical Analysis
Negative
5.91
Price Trends
4.82
Negative
4.74
Negative
4.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Negative
38.16
Neutral
32.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GTN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.11, above the 50-day MA of 4.82, and above the 200-day MA of 4.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GTN.
Gray Television Risk Analysis
Gray Television disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gray Television reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gray Television Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $807.18M | -44.57 | -25.09% | 6.56% | 45.98% | 82.18% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
52 Neutral | $38.13M | -0.20 | -401.05% | ― | -14.99% | -1938.45% | |
50 Neutral | $57.59M | -6.31 | -5.57% | 8.81% | -4.10% | -343.54% | |
45 Neutral | $450.47M | -4.05 | -3.43% | 6.45% | -14.49% | -164.07% | |
45 Neutral | $312.15M | -3.09 | -7.87% | ― | -13.33% | -299.71% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GTN
Gray Television
4.01
0.30
8.20%
BBGI
Beasley Broadcast Group
21.09
16.28
338.36%
SSP
E. W. Scripps Company Class A
3.41
0.91
36.40%
EVC
Entravision
8.77
6.72
328.43%
SGA
Saga Communications
9.05
-2.03
-18.31%
Gray Television Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Gray Television Closes Station Acquisitions, Expands Market Reach
Positive
May 7, 2026
On March 26 and May 1, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. completed a series of station acquisitions from Byron Allen’s Allen Media Group, paying a total of $171 million plus working capital adjustments funded with cash on hand. The deals brought Gray n...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Gray Television Launches New Investor Presentations Under Reg FD
Neutral
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. began a series of meetings and presentations to prospective investors, supported by a slide deck prepared for these discussions. The materials were formally furnished to regulators, signaling an organized investor-...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gray Television Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 6, 2026
Gray Media, Inc. reported the results of its May 6, 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, where all nominated directors, including Hilton H. Howell Jr., Luis A. Garcia and others, were elected to serve until the 2027 meeting or until successors...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gray Television Amends Credit Facility, Plans Term Loan Repayment
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Gray Media entered into a sixth amendment to its Fifth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, fully amending and restating its Senior Credit Facility without changing the size of its revolving commitments, term loan principal am...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.