Gray Television (GTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $635.98M
• Dividend Yield: 6.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: -3.32%
• EPS Growth: -69.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,118
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Broadcasting
• EPS (TTM): -0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 92,500,244
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,845,144
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,439,549
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.14
• 1Y Price Target: $8.13
• Price Target Upside: 55.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.46
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.48B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(5.16% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

GTN scores in the upper-50s primarily due to weakened recent fundamentals (TTM net loss, sharply lower free cash flow, and elevated leverage). Technicals are supportive with bullish price positioning and positive MACD, but an overbought RSI tempers the outlook. Valuation is helped by a high dividend yield, while the latest earnings call was moderately positive on guidance execution and cost control but still constrained by leverage and rising CapEx expectations.

Positive Factors

Operating Profitability

Sustained operating margins and a positive Adjusted EBITDA indicate resilient core station economics and margin durability. Strong underlying profitability provides a buffer against ad cyclicality and supports internal funding for operations, strategic initiatives, and gradual deleveraging over multiple quarters.

Liquidity & Debt Management

Meaningful liquidity and tactical refinancing actions improve short- to medium-term flexibility and reduce near-term refinancing risk. The ability to access capital and execute targeted note calls supports planned deleveraging and gives management time to convert operating improvements into sustainable balance-sheet repair.

Content, Distribution & Digital Growth

Strategic content wins, network renewals and a streaming partnership materially broaden distribution and audience monetization options. Combined with double-digit digital growth, these structural moves diversify revenue away from legacy MVPD dependence and enhance long-term ad and retrans negotiation leverage.

Negative Factors

High Leverage & Net Loss

Elevated total leverage and a recent net loss constrain strategic flexibility and amplify risk from advertising cyclicality. High leverage increases interest burden and sensitivity to earnings volatility, making sustained deleveraging essential to restore credit optionality and reduce refinancing and covenant pressures.

Weakened Free Cash Flow

A dramatic decline in free cash flow reduces capacity to service debt, fund dividends, and invest in growth without external financing. Lower FCF increases reliance on refinancing or asset transactions, and prolongs the timeline for meaningful balance-sheet repair unless operating cash generation reaccelerates sustainably.

Retransmission & Subscriber Volatility

Flat retrans revenue and ongoing MVPD subscriber declines create unpredictability in a key recurring revenue stream. This volatility complicates longer-term revenue visibility and heightens risk in carriage negotiations, leaving retrans growth and related cash flows dependent on structural distribution shifts and execution.

Gray Television Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gray Media, Inc., a television broadcasting company, owns and/or operates television stations and digital assets in the United States. It also broadcasts secondary digital channels affiliated to ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX, as well as various other networks and program services, including CW Plus Network, MY Network, the MeTV Network, Justice, This TV Network, Antenna TV, Telemundo, Cozi, Heroes and Icons, and MOVIES! Network; and local news/weather channels in various markets. In addition, the company offers video program production services. It owns and operates television stations and digital assets that serve 113 television markets in the United States. The company was formerly known as Gray Communications Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Gray Television, Inc. in August 2002. Gray Television, Inc. was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Gray Television generates revenue primarily through advertising sales on its television stations. Local and national advertisers pay for commercial slots during the broadcasts, which contribute significantly to the company's earnings. Additionally, GTN earns revenue from retransmission consent fees, where cable and satellite operators pay to carry its content. The company also benefits from digital revenue streams, including online advertising and streaming services on its digital platforms. Strategic partnerships with content providers and local businesses enhance its advertising reach and revenue potential. Furthermore, acquisitions of additional television stations and media properties allow GTN to expand its market presence and diversify its revenue sources.

Gray Television Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial results are mixed and recently weakened: TTM revenue is down ~7.6% and the company swung to a TTM net loss (‑$85M). Margins at the operating level remain solid (EBIT ~18%, EBITDA ~25%), but free cash flow fell sharply (TTM FCF ~$61M, ~‑86% vs. prior period) and leverage is elevated (TTM debt-to-equity ~2.29x), reducing flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) down ~7.6% after growth in 2024 and declines in 2023. Profitability is mixed: operating profitability remains solid in TTM (EBIT margin ~18% and EBITDA margin ~25%), but net results swung to a loss in TTM (net income -$85M) after strong profitability in 2022–2024 (net margin ~10–12% in 2022/2024). Gross margin improved versus prior years, but the recent drop in revenue and return to losses weigh on the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated for the business profile, with debt-to-equity consistently around ~2x+ (2020–2024 range ~1.7x–2.8x; TTM ~2.29x), which increases sensitivity to earnings swings. Equity and total assets are sizable (TTM equity ~$2.16B; assets ~$10.44B), providing some balance-sheet support. Returns on equity were strong in 2020–2022 and 2024, but turned negative in 2023 and are modest in TTM, reflecting inconsistent bottom-line performance.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened meaningfully in TTM (operating cash flow ~$289M; free cash flow ~$61M), with free cash flow down sharply (TTM free cash flow growth about -86%). While operating cash flow still modestly covers reported earnings in TTM (operating cash flow to net income ~1.05x), the absolute free cash flow level is far below 2024 (free cash flow ~$608M) and below the stronger 2020–2022 period. The combination of lower cash flow and higher leverage reduces financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.10B	3.64B	3.28B	3.68B	2.41B
Gross Profit	2.99B	1.24B	898.00M	1.43B	803.00M
EBITDA	598.00M	1.25B	697.00M	1.33B	594.00M
Net Income	-85.00M	375.00M	-76.00M	455.00M	90.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.44B	10.54B	10.64B	11.15B	11.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	368.00M	135.00M	21.00M	61.00M	189.00M
Total Debt	5.87B	5.69B	6.24B	6.53B	6.83B
Total Liabilities	7.63B	7.61B	8.02B	8.39B	8.70B
Stockholders Equity	2.81B	2.93B	2.62B	2.77B	2.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	181.00M	608.00M	300.00M	393.00M	93.00M
Operating Cash Flow	289.00M	751.00M	648.00M	829.00M	300.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-63.00M	-28.00M	-291.00M	-503.00M	-3.53B
Financing Cash Flow	7.00M	-609.00M	-397.00M	-454.00M	2.65B

Gray Television Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.23
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.82, above the 50-day MA of 4.69, and above the 200-day MA of 4.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GTN.

Gray Television Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TGNA	63 Neutral	$3.39B	14.25	7.14%	2.58%	-2.73%	-25.06%
SGA	62 Neutral	$74.45M	-35.99	0.18%	8.81%	-0.77%	-93.46%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
GTN	58 Neutral	$635.98M	-5.52	-2.96%	6.45%	-3.32%	-69.63%
EVC	53 Neutral	$282.03M	-5.49	-81.68%	6.56%	-45.95%	-75.87%
SSP	51 Neutral	$365.91M	-3.48	1.81%	―	-3.27%	86.01%
BBGI	40 Underperform	$7.25M	-0.67	-5.90%	―	-7.78%	-369.53%

Gray Television Corporate Events

Gray Television Launches New Investor Outreach and Transparency Effort

Beginning on February 26, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. plans to hold periodic meetings and presentations with prospective investors, underscoring its ongoing effort to engage the capital markets and communicate its strategy. The company has prepared a slide deck for use in these investor discussions, signaling a structured outreach campaign aimed at informing potential stakeholders without altering its existing securities disclosure status.

While the materials are being furnished rather than formally filed under federal securities laws, their planned use highlights Gray Media’s intention to increase transparency around its business and financial profile. This approach may help the company broaden its investor base and refine its market positioning, but it does not, by itself, change any of Gray Media’s regulatory or reporting obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Gray Television Announces Redemption of 2026 Senior Notes

On December 18, 2025, Gray Media, Inc. announced that it had issued a notice of redemption to holders of its 5.875% senior notes due 2026, stating that it intends to redeem all of these notes on January 20, 2026. The 2026 notes will be redeemed at par value, equal to 100% of their principal amount, plus any accrued and unpaid interest to the redemption date, signaling a step in the company’s ongoing management of its debt obligations and capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Gray Television Completes $250M Note Issuance

On December 12, 2025, Gray Media, Inc. completed the issuance of $250 million in additional 9.625% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due 2032. These notes are part of the same issuance as the $900 million notes issued earlier in July 2025. The proceeds from this issuance are intended to redeem a portion of the company’s 10.500% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2029, cover fees and expenses related to the offering, and support general corporate purposes. The issuance of these notes strengthens Gray’s financial positioning by refinancing existing debt and providing capital for corporate activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.

Gray Television Announces $250M Note Sale Agreement

On December 5, 2025, Gray Media, Inc. entered into purchase agreements with accredited investors to sell $250 million of 9.625% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due 2032 in a private placement. These Additional Notes will be part of the same issuance as the existing $900 million notes issued in July 2025. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem a portion of the company’s 10.500% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2029, cover fees and expenses related to the offering, and for general corporate purposes. The offering is expected to close on December 12, 2025, and is conducted under an exemption from registration requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.