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Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)
NASDAQ:GT
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GoodYear Tire
(NASDAQ:GT)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▼(-6.25% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (multi-year revenue decline, a large 2025 loss, and high leverage) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call provides some offset via strong Q4 cash flow, debt reduction, and cost-savings execution, but guidance points to significant near-term headwinds. Valuation is difficult to support given losses (negative P/E) and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow & debt reduction
A strong Q4 FCF (> $1.3B) and meaningful net-debt reduction materially improve financial flexibility. Durable cash-generation in late 2025 funds deleveraging, supports capex discipline and reduces refinancing pressure, giving the company time to execute operational fixes over the next several quarters.
Goodyear Forward efficiency program
Sustained, measurable program savings (exceeding initial targets) increase structural margin resilience. Run-rate cost and procurement improvements are durable levers that lower operating breakevens, enabling improved margins even if volumes remain soft for months.
Premiumization & product pipeline
Shifting mix toward higher-margin >18-inch tires and a large new-product slate support higher revenue per tire and durable margin expansion. A sustained premium focus improves pricing power and reduces sensitivity to commodity-driven price declines over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue decline & loss
Three consecutive years of revenue decline and a large 2025 net loss signal structural demand or competitive pressures. Persistent top-line erosion undermines scale economics, limits ability to fund reinvestment organically, and raises the bar for sustained margin or earnings recovery.
High leverage and balance-sheet strain
Elevated leverage constrains strategic flexibility and increases vulnerability to cyclical downturns. Even with nominal debt reduction, falling equity amplifies capital-structure risk, increasing interest sensitivity and limiting the firm's ability to absorb additional shocks over the coming quarters.
Demand weakness, tariffs & inventory overhang
Guided volume declines, elevated channel inventory and tariff-related cost headwinds exert durable margin and utilization pressure. Destocking and higher tariffs can compress near-term margins and factory efficiency, delaying recovery in unit volumes and profitability for multiple quarters.
GoodYear Tire (GT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.83B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth-3.87%
EPS Growth-482.29%
CountryUS
Employees68,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding286,247,040
10 Day Avg. Volume8,966,907
30 Day Avg. Volume8,554,770
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
P/FCF Ratio-84.10
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.06Price Target Upside57.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.79B
GoodYear Tire Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells tires and related products and services worldwide. It offers various lines of tires for automobiles, trucks, buses, aircraft, motorcycles, earthmoving equipment, and mining and industrial equipment under the Goodyear, Cooper, Dunlop, Kelly, Debica, Sava, Fulda, Mastercraft, Roadmaster, and various other house brands, as well as under the private-label brands. The company also retreads truck, aviation, and off-the-road tires; manufactures and sells tread rubber and other tire retreading materials; sells chemical and natural rubber products; and provides automotive and commercial truck maintenance and repair services, and miscellaneous other products and services. It operates approximately 1,000 retail outlets, which offer products for retail sale, and provides repair and other services. The company sells its products worldwide through a network of independent dealers, regional distributors, retail outlets, and retailers. The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company was incorporated in 1898 and is headquartered in Akron, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyGoodyear primarily makes money by selling tires across multiple end markets and geographies. Its core revenue stream is the manufacture and sale of replacement and original-equipment tires: (1) Replacement tires sold to consumers and fleets through wholesalers, retailers, and Goodyear’s own retail and service locations; and (2) Original equipment (OE) tires sold directly to vehicle manufacturers for factory-installed fitments. In addition to tire sales, Goodyear generates revenue from services and related offerings delivered through its retail and commercial service channels (e.g., installation and other tire-related services) and from commercial/fleet-oriented solutions and programs tied to tire supply and servicing. Revenue and profitability are influenced by factors such as raw material and logistics costs, pricing and product mix (e.g., premium versus value tiers), volume demand in replacement vs. OE channels, and foreign-exchange and regional market conditions. Significant partnerships include supply relationships with automotive and other vehicle manufacturers for OE fitments; specific partnership details beyond this are null.
GoodYear Tire Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Geography
Reveals profitability across different regions, highlighting where GoodYear Tire excels and where it might face challenges or opportunities due to regional market dynamics.
Reveals profitability across different regions, highlighting where GoodYear Tire excels and where it might face challenges or opportunities due to regional market dynamics.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGoodYear Tire Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted meaningful operational and financial progress — record Q4 SOI, strong free cash flow, substantial Goodyear Forward savings and portfolio premiumization — but management also signaled material near-term headwinds (Q1 volume down ~10%, commercial weakness, elevated channel inventories, tariff and factory inefficiency costs). The positive execution and balance-sheet improvements are offset by expected volatility and earnings pressure in early 2026, leaving the outlook balanced between demonstrated execution and short-term market/structural challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Q4 Operating Performance
Q4 revenue of $4.9 billion with segment operating income (SOI) of $416 million — the highest SOI and SOI margin in over 7 years. SOI was up ~9% year-over-year (and +18% when adjusted for divestitures). Reported SOI margin was 8.5% (up ~1 point excluding asset sales).
Strong Free Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Improvement
Generated over $1.3 billion of free cash flow in Q4; net debt declined by $1.6 billion year-over-year, helped by proceeds from three major asset sales and an insurance recovery.
Goodyear Forward Delivery
Goodyear Forward delivered $192 million of benefits in Q4 and $772 million for the full year; company exceeded initial P&L targets for 2024 and 2025 by over $150 million and reports $1.5 billion of run-rate benefits to date.
Price/Mix and Revenue per Tire Gains
Revenue per tire increased ~4% in Q4 (consumer replacement revenue per tire up ~8%). Price/mix contributed ~$206 million to Q4 performance; company is prioritizing higher-margin, >18-inch products.
Product and Commercial Execution
Launched a large new-product program (30% more new products than most of company history) and plans ~1,700 new products in 2026. U.S. consumer >18-inch share rose to ~50% in Q4 (vs ~42% in Q4 2024), supporting premium mix.
Regional Operational Progress — EMEA & Asia Pacific
EMEA: eighth consecutive quarter of consumer OE market share gains (~+3 percentage points) and highest SOI margin in over 3 years; Asia Pacific: consumer replacement returned to growth after SKU rationalizations, with APAC SOI of $69 million (13.1% of sales) and margin expansion excluding divestitures.
Cost and Capital Discipline
Company reduced base CapEx and interest expense assumptions for modeling, driving improved cash generation outlook; emphasized manufacturing efficiency programs and procurement/engineering changes that improved CapEx leverage.
Negative Updates
Weak Volume Trends and Q1 Guidance
Company expects Q1 volume to be down ~10% (driven largely by U.S. consumer replacement). Q4 unit volume declined ~3% and Americas unit volume was down ~4% in Q4.
Commercial Vehicle Weakness
Americas commercial volume declined ~14% in Q4; U.S. heavy truck builds fell ~17% in Q4 and U.S. commercial OE industry volume was down ~26%, pressuring commercial margins and factory utilization.
Elevated Channel Inventories and Promotional Activity
Industry/U.S. channel inventories up ~10% year-over-year at year-end due to prebuy/imports and heavy year-end promotions; industry sell-out declined ~2.5% in Q4 and January sell-out was ~5% weaker than Q4, driving dealer/distributor destocking and Q1 pressure.
Tariffs, Inflation and Other Cost Headwinds
Inflation, tariffs and other costs were a headwind of ~$227 million in Q4. For Q1 tariffs and other costs expected to be ~ $130 million (tariffs ~ $65 million); full-year tariffs are expected to be a ~$175 million headwind.
Divestitures and Scope Impacts
Sale of OTR and Chemicals reduced Q4 sales (~0.6% YoY decline) and lowers the earnings base (Dunlop & Chemical sales reduced Q1 earnings base by ~$37 million and ~$185 million on a full-year basis). Supply agreements add $55 million of amortization of deferred revenue in 2026.
Near-Term Margin Pressure from Unabsorbed Overhead
Unabsorbed overhead is expected to be a Q1 headwind of ~$60 million; 'other costs' (~$120 million) driven by factory inefficiencies, ramp downs and transitory manufacturing costs are concentrated in the first half of 2026.
Europe Uncertainty and Import Dynamics
EU antidumping decision timeline pushed to midyear and an anti-subsidy probe initiated, creating uncertainty; EMEA consumer sell-in softened in anticipation and delays may enable additional low-end imports to flow into the region, pressuring near-term volumes and pricing.
Company Guidance
The company guided that Q1 will be challenging — volume is expected to be down about 10%, driven by weak U.S. consumer replacement and elevated channel inventories after heavy Q4 promotion and weather-related sell-out weakness — with an unabsorbed overhead headwind of ~$60M (after lowering production by 4M units in Q4, with carry-through into Q2–Q3). For Q1 they expect price/mix to benefit ~ $25M, raw materials to benefit ~ $85M (≈$300M benefit full year, with ~2/3 in H1), Goodyear Forward to contribute ~ $100M in Q1 (~$300M for FY), and tariffs & other costs to be a ~ $130M headwind in Q1 (tariffs ~ $65M); full-year tariffs are expected to be ~$175M and other costs ~$120M (weighted to H1). The Dunlop & Chemical sales reduce the earnings base by ~$37M in Q1 and ~$185M for the year, and the company will amortize ~$55M of deferred revenue in 2026 (≈$15M higher vs. 2025); management expects lower CapEx and interest expense and a base-case move to slightly positive free cash flow for 2026 (after delivering >$1.3B FCF in Q4, $4.9B revenue, $416M SOI in Q4 and net debt down ~$1.6B YoY).GoodYear Tire Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are pressured: revenue has declined for three straight years and 2025 swung to a large net loss, while leverage remains high with worsening debt-to-equity as equity fell. The key offset is improved (still positive) operating cash flow, but free cash flow remains inconsistent and slightly negative in 2025, keeping financial risk elevated.Income Statement
Revenue has been shrinking for three straight years (2023–2025), with a sharp drop in 2025. Profitability is volatile: the company swung from a small profit in 2024 to a large net loss in 2025, even though gross margin stayed fairly steady in the high-teens. Operating profitability remains positive (EBIT margin ~3.6% in 2024–2025), but the gap between operating profit and bottom-line results signals meaningful below-the-line pressure and weak earnings quality.38
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is high and has worsened as equity declined: debt-to-equity rose to ~2.24 in 2025 from ~1.85 in 2024. Total debt fell in 2025, but the drop in equity and large loss drove return on equity deeply negative in 2025, highlighting balance-sheet strain. Overall, the capital structure leaves less flexibility if industry conditions weaken further.34
Negative
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remained positive and improved in 2025 versus 2024, which is a key support amid earnings weakness. However, free cash flow has been inconsistent and mostly negative (notably large deficits in 2022 and 2024), and 2025 was slightly negative despite the operating cash improvement. Cash generation is therefore not yet reliably translating into sustainable excess cash after investment needs.44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.28B | 18.88B | 20.07B | 20.80B | 17.48B |
| Gross Profit | 3.37B | 3.70B | 3.51B | 3.85B | 3.79B |
| EBITDA | 1.36B | 1.73B | 856.00M | 1.81B | 1.78B |
| Net Income | -1.72B | 70.00M | -689.00M | 202.00M | 764.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 18.21B | 20.96B | 21.58B | 22.43B | 21.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 801.00M | 810.00M | 902.00M | 1.23B | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 7.26B | 8.79B | 8.65B | 8.91B | 8.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.80B | 16.06B | 16.75B | 16.96B | 16.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.23B | 4.76B | 4.67B | 5.30B | 5.00B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -30.00M | -490.00M | -18.00M | -540.00M | 81.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 796.00M | 698.00M | 1.03B | 521.00M | 1.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 997.00M | -1.00B | -1.03B | -914.00M | -2.79B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.77B | 225.00M | -333.00M | 575.00M | 1.31B |
GoodYear Tire Technical Analysis
Negative
6.40
Price Trends
8.77
Negative
8.47
Negative
8.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.65
Positive
20.65
Positive
4.50
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.77, below the 50-day MA of 8.77, and below the 200-day MA of 8.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.65 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GT.
GoodYear Tire Risk Analysis
GoodYear Tire disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GoodYear Tire reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GoodYear Tire Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $5.90B | 14.06 | 8.79% | 2.63% | -1.90% | -13.86% | |
69 Neutral | $7.63B | 9.90 | 29.57% | 2.60% | 0.84% | 26.17% | |
65 Neutral | $3.05B | 18.56 | 14.34% | ― | 7.94% | 34.84% | |
62 Neutral | $10.78B | 35.20 | 4.80% | 1.24% | 0.08% | -83.69% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $14.92B | 101.80 | 1.78% | ― | 2.16% | -85.91% | |
43 Neutral | $1.83B | -1.47 | -42.27% | ― | -3.87% | -482.29% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GT
GoodYear Tire
6.40
-2.91
-31.26%
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15.65%
BWA
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82.37%
APTV
Aptiv
70.13
7.65
12.24%
DORM
Dorman Products
100.92
-25.59
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LEA
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24.94%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.