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Green Plains (GPRE)
NASDAQ:GPRE
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Green Plains (GPRE) AI Stock Analysis

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GPRE

Green Plains

(NASDAQ:GPRE)

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Neutral 53 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▼(-11.35% Downside)
Green Plains' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses. However, the positive outlook from the earnings call, highlighting operational improvements and strategic debt management, provides some optimism. The technical analysis suggests a neutral trend, while the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Operational Excellence
Achieving record capacity utilization indicates strong operational efficiency, which can lead to improved profitability and competitive positioning in the renewable energy sector.
Debt Refinancing
Refinancing debt extends maturity and reduces interest expenses, enhancing financial stability and allowing for strategic investments in growth initiatives.
Carbon Capture Systems
Operational carbon capture systems position Green Plains to benefit from environmental credits and align with growing regulatory and market demand for sustainable practices.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Significant revenue decline indicates challenges in maintaining market share and could impact long-term growth unless addressed through strategic initiatives.
Increased Interest Expenses
High interest expenses from debt restructuring can strain cash flow and limit financial flexibility, affecting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
SG&A Expenses Increase
Rising SG&A expenses can erode margins and reduce profitability, necessitating cost control measures to sustain long-term financial health.

Green Plains (GPRE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreen Plains Inc. (GPRE) is a leading provider of renewable energy solutions, primarily engaged in the production and marketing of ethanol and its co-products. Operating within the agricultural and energy sectors, the company focuses on transforming corn into high-quality ethanol, while also producing distillers grains and corn oil. Green Plains is committed to sustainable practices and is expanding its footprint in the renewable energy market, including advancements in biofuels and other renewable products.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreen Plains generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the production and sale of ethanol, which is a renewable fuel used in transportation. The company operates a network of ethanol production facilities that convert corn into ethanol, capturing the value from both ethanol and its co-products, such as distillers grains (used as animal feed) and corn oil (used in biodiesel production). Additionally, Green Plains earns income from its marketing and distribution services, which involve selling ethanol and its co-products to various customers, including fuel blenders and livestock feed suppliers. Strategic partnerships with agricultural producers, fuel companies, and renewable energy firms enhance its market reach and operational efficiency. Furthermore, the company is increasingly focusing on innovation in renewable energy technologies, which may provide additional revenue opportunities as the market for sustainable energy continues to grow.

Green Plains Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Ethanol Gallons Sold
Ethanol Gallons Sold
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Chart InsightsEthanol gallons sold by Green Plains have shown fluctuations, with a recent decline in Q1 2025. Despite operational improvements like a 100% utilization rate and cost reductions, the company faces challenges such as a net loss and liquidity concerns. However, strengthened ethanol crush margins and increased exports suggest potential recovery. The strategic focus on cost efficiency and market expansion, particularly in the protein business, could mitigate current financial pressures and support future growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Green Plains Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant operational and financial improvements, including record plant performance and effective debt management. Despite a notable revenue decline and increased expenses, the company's strategic initiatives and carbon capture advancements position it well for future growth.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Operational Excellence and Record Utilization
Green Plains achieved over 101% capacity utilization, the highest level reported in over a decade, driven by operational excellence programs improving fermentation yields and reducing plant downtime.
Significant Debt Refinancing and Reduction
The company executed the sale of the Obion, Tennessee facility, using funds to repay approximately $130 million of high-cost debt, and refinanced most of its 2027 convertible debt with a new $200 million facility due in 2030.
Carbon Capture Systems Operational
Carbon capture systems are up and operational in all three Nebraska locations, with plants performing at record levels and capturing CO2 for credits.
Positive Financial Adjustments
Green Plains reported $52.6 million in adjusted EBITDA and $11.9 million in net income, with $25 million recognized from 45Z clean fuel production tax credits in Q3.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Revenue for the quarter was $508.5 million, down 22.8% year-over-year due to exiting ethanol marketing for Tharaldson and placing Fairmont ethanol asset on care and maintenance.
Increased Interest and Restructuring Expenses
This quarter included $35.7 million in nonrecurring interest expense tied to debt restructuring and $2.7 million in onetime restructuring charges.
SG&A Expenses Increase
SG&A totaled $29.3 million, which is $2.6 million higher than the prior year Q3, due to onetime expenses related to earn-outs at the FQT business.
Company Guidance
During the Green Plains Inc. third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided optimistic guidance, highlighting several key financial and operational metrics. The company achieved a remarkable 101% capacity utilization across its network of plants, the highest in over a decade, driven by operational improvements that increased fermentation yields and reduced plant downtime. Financially, Green Plains reported $52.6 million in adjusted EBITDA and $11.9 million in net income for the quarter. The company has successfully executed the sale of its Obion, Tennessee facility, utilizing the proceeds to fully repay approximately $130 million of high-cost debt. Moreover, it refinanced most of its 2027 convertible debt with a new $200 million facility due in 2030. The company's carbon capture systems are operational in all three Nebraska locations, and it has realized $25 million from the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, with an additional $15 million to $25 million anticipated in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead to 2026, the company expects these values to grow as it expands the program across all of its plants.

Green Plains Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Green Plains is experiencing financial difficulties, with declining revenues and persistent losses impacting profitability. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but negative returns on equity highlight the need for strategic improvements. Cash flow management is a concern, with negative free cash flow growth and volatility in cash flow ratios.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Green Plains has faced declining revenue over the recent periods, with a negative revenue growth rate of -2.68% in the TTM. The gross profit margin has decreased to 3.52%, indicating pressure on profitability. The net profit margin is negative at -6.34%, reflecting ongoing losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.78, which is moderate but indicates some leverage. Return on equity is negative at -18.28%, showing that the company is not generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall balance sheet suggests a need for improved profitability and asset management.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow remains negative, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unusually high due to negative net income, suggesting volatility in cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.25B2.46B3.30B3.66B2.83B1.92B
Gross Profit50.76M130.45M164.75M137.84M179.00M85.43M
EBITDA-97.85M50.62M53.60M26.22M116.09M-42.89M
Net Income-188.15M-82.50M-93.38M-127.22M-65.99M-108.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.53B1.78B1.94B2.12B2.16B1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments135.90M173.04M349.57M444.66M551.08M233.86M
Total Debt411.96M649.31M676.51M711.00M789.32M590.61M
Total Liabilities757.53M907.64M949.27M1.06B1.06B802.25M
Stockholders Equity768.92M865.22M843.73M910.03M950.50M646.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-78.33M-125.05M-51.75M-142.66M-182.95M-11.68M
Operating Cash Flow-23.21M-29.96M56.35M69.71M4.25M98.89M
Investing Cash Flow-59.77M-62.05M-106.90M-105.25M-236.28M-11.45M
Financing Cash Flow-16.25M-77.35M-70.96M-25.14M518.19M-82.53M

Green Plains Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price11.28
Price Trends
50DMA
10.16
Positive
100DMA
8.87
Positive
200DMA
7.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.17
Positive
RSI
57.36
Neutral
STOCH
46.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.53, above the 50-day MA of 10.16, and above the 200-day MA of 7.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRE.

Green Plains Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$1.05B21.499.47%-9.57%-24.85%
64
Neutral
$956.90M21.443.67%3.49%5.35%-1.43%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
53
Neutral
$656.97M-18.95%-15.66%-237.12%
52
Neutral
$510.28M-11.71%341.75%20.16%
47
Neutral
$275.13M18.20-7.24%1.84%-4.31%-206.57%
46
Neutral
$87.46M-28.22%-12.70%-74.32%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GPRE
Green Plains
11.28
-0.44
-3.75%
GEVO
Gevo
2.16
0.26
13.68%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
1.16
-0.05
-4.13%
REX
Rex American
32.34
8.14
33.64%
SCL
Stepan Company
43.90
-33.31
-43.14%
OEC
Orion Engineered
4.50
-11.84
-72.46%

Green Plains Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Green Plains Completes Convertible Notes Exchange and Issuance
Positive
Oct 28, 2025

On October 27, 2025, Green Plains Inc. completed a series of financial transactions involving the exchange of $170 million of its 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 for newly issued 5.25% Convertible Senior Notes due November 2030, and issued an additional $30 million of the 2030 Notes through subscription agreements. These transactions resulted in $200 million of the 2030 Notes being outstanding, with the company using $30 million of the proceeds to repurchase approximately 2.9 million shares of its common stock. The 2030 Notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, are convertible into cash, stock, or a combination thereof, with specific conditions for redemption and conversion. This strategic financial maneuver is aimed at optimizing Green Plains’ capital structure and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Green Plains Announces Convertible Notes Exchange and Stock Buyback
Neutral
Oct 22, 2025

On October 22, 2025, Green Plains Inc. announced it had entered into exchange agreements to swap $170 million of its 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 for newly issued 5.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, and subscription agreements to issue $30 million of 2030 Notes for cash. The company also plans to repurchase approximately 2.9 million shares of its common stock for $30 million, funded by the subscription transactions. These transactions, expected to close on October 27, 2025, will result in $200 million of 2030 Notes outstanding and $60 million of 2027 Notes remaining. The 2030 Notes have a conversion rate of 63.6132 shares per $1,000 principal amount, with a conversion premium of about 50% over the last reported stock price.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Green Plains Sells Ethanol Plant to POET Biorefining
Positive
Sep 26, 2025

On September 25, 2025, Green Plains Inc. completed the sale of its ethanol plant in Rives, Tennessee, to POET Biorefining for $190 million in cash. This transaction, which includes an estimated $20 million in working capital, was used to retire the company’s junior mezzanine notes due in 2026 and enhance corporate liquidity, aligning with Green Plains’ strategy to optimize its portfolio and advance carbon reduction initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Green Plains Signs Tax Credit Agreement with Freepoint
Positive
Sep 17, 2025

On September 16, 2025, Green Plains Inc. entered into a Tax Credit Purchase Agreement with Freepoint Commodities C LLC to supply production tax credits from ethanol production at its Nebraska facilities for the year 2025. This agreement is expected to deliver up to $65 million worth of credits, with the potential to extend the term and scope through 2029. The deal highlights Green Plains’ strategy to monetize low-carbon intensity ethanol production and expand its visibility in the carbon credit market, potentially generating between $40 and $50 million in 2025 45Z EBITDA net of discounts.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Green Plains Sells Ethanol Plant for $190 Million
Positive
Aug 27, 2025

On August 22, 2025, Green Plains Obion LLC, a subsidiary of Green Plains Inc., entered into an agreement to sell its ethanol plant in Rives, Tennessee, to POET Refining – Obion, LLC for $190 million in cash. This sale, representing 13% of the company’s ethanol production capacity, is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025 and will help retire junior mezzanine debt due in 2026, enhancing the company’s liquidity. Additionally, Green Plains announced the conclusion of its strategic review process, determining that the company is best positioned to deliver shareholder value by continuing its current strategy under existing leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Green Plains Appoints Chris Osowski as New CEO
Positive
Aug 19, 2025

On August 19, 2025, Green Plains Inc. announced the appointment of Chris Osowski as the new Chief Executive Officer and member of the Board of Directors. Osowski, who has over 20 years of global leadership experience in the chemical, agribusiness, and renewable energy sectors, previously served as the company’s Executive Vice President of Operations and Technology. The appointment is expected to drive the next phase of growth and innovation for Green Plains, focusing on operational excellence and long-term value creation. The company also announced Trent Collins as Senior Vice President of Operations, further strengthening its leadership team.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.

Green Plains Inc. Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results
Aug 12, 2025

Green Plains Inc. is a biorefining company that focuses on converting annually renewable crops into sustainable biofuels and feedstocks, operating primarily in the biofuels industry. In its latest earnings report for the second quarter of 2025, Green Plains Inc. reported a net loss of $72.2 million, or $(1.09) per diluted share, which includes significant non-cash charges. Despite the loss, the company highlighted progress in its carbon capture infrastructure and a successful transition of ethanol marketing to Eco-Energy, LLC, which improved working capital by over $50 million. Key financial metrics for the quarter included a revenue of $552.8 million, a decrease from the previous year, and an adjusted EBITDA of $16.4 million, which showed improvement from the prior year. The company also achieved a 99% utilization rate across its ethanol plants, indicating strong operational performance. Looking forward, Green Plains Inc. remains optimistic about its decarbonization strategy and the completion of its carbon capture project, which is expected to enhance earnings in the latter half of the year and into 2026. The company is focused on maintaining cost efficiency and leveraging favorable market conditions to improve financial performance.

Green Plains Inc. Earnings Call: Operational Gains Amid Financial Challenges
Aug 12, 2025

Green Plains Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a balanced outlook for the company. While there were significant operational improvements and progress on strategic initiatives, such as their carbon strategy and cost reduction efforts, the company also faced financial challenges, including a notable net loss and a decline in revenue.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2025