Green Plains (GPRE)
NASDAQ:GPRE
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Green Plains
(NASDAQ:GPRE)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(31.58% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/11/26
The score reflects strong near-term momentum and a very positive earnings-call update (profitability swing and raised 45Z guidance) balanced against weaker underlying financial statement quality, driven by multi-year revenue decline and historically thin profitability. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, but no dividend yield data is available.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow (~$117M TTM) and solid free cash flow (~$90M TTM) provide durable internal financing for sustaining capex, working capital and debt reduction. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on external funding and supports execution of efficiency projects over months.
Negative Factors
Thin Margins & Revenue Decline
Very thin historical gross margins (~1.8% TTM) and a multi‑year revenue decline make core ethanol economics fragile. Even with recent improvement, low margin buffers leave earnings highly sensitive to commodity input swings and volume losses, challenging sustained profitability if credits or demand soften.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow (~$117M TTM) and solid free cash flow (~$90M TTM) provide durable internal financing for sustaining capex, working capital and debt reduction. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on external funding and supports execution of efficiency projects over months.
Read all positive factors
Green Plains (GPRE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.27B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth-20.16%
EPS Growth83.66%
CountryUS
Employees923
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.27
Shares Outstanding70,030,174
10 Day Avg. Volume1,460,276
30 Day Avg. Volume1,533,645
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.14
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio10.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.25Price Target Upside9.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.24B
Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment produc...
How the Company Makes Money
Green Plains primarily makes money by producing and selling ethanol and by selling co-products generated during ethanol production. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Ethanol sales: The company buys corn and other inputs, converts them into etha...
Green Plains Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Ethanol Gallons Sold
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGreen Plains Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a clearly improved operational and financial picture driven by high plant utilization, record production at key sites, strong gross margins, and substantial, early contribution from the carbon (45Z) program—including an upward revision to 45Z guidance. Management also highlighted disciplined capital allocation, safety achievements, and balance-sheet actions. Remaining risks are largely execution and timing related (credit monetization, compliance/audits), near‑term debt maturity, and commodity/crop exposure, but these do not overshadow the magnitude of the positive operational and earnings progress conveyed on the call.Positive Updates
Material Adjusted EBITDA Recovery and QoQ Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA of $71.5 million in Q1 2026, up $22.0 million versus Q4 2025 (≈44% quarter-over-quarter increase) and more than $95 million higher versus Q1 2025, reflecting a swing to materially stronger profitability year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Seasonal Working Capital Use and Cash Timing
Unrestricted cash declined to $95.7 million at March 31 primarily due to normal seasonal working capital (deferred farmer payments), creating quarter‑end cash timing volatility; monetization of 2026 45Z credits remains subject to timing and structuring, though management is optimistic.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Material Adjusted EBITDA Recovery and QoQ Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA of $71.5 million in Q1 2026, up $22.0 million versus Q4 2025 (≈44% quarter-over-quarter increase) and more than $95 million higher versus Q1 2025, reflecting a swing to materially stronger profitability year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 45Z production tax credit EBITDA guidance to $200–$225 million (Advantage Nebraska $140–$165M; other plants ≈ $60M), and reiterated full‑year targets of SG&A ≈ $90M, interest expense ≈ $35M, and sustaining CapEx $15–$25M (Q1 CapEx $6.4M); Q1 results that support the outlook included adjusted EBITDA $71.5M (up $22M sequentially, >$95M YoY), 45Z net contribution $55.2M (gross credits $65.6M), gross margin $88M (vs $3M in Q1 2025), revenue $446M, net income $33M ($0.42/share), D&A $23.6M, production 174 million gallons (~97% of capacity) with record months at York and Superior, unrestricted cash $95.7M at March 31 (cash + restricted cash >$200M in April), and plans to retire $60M of 2027 convertible notes—with additional capital directed to efficiency and CI projects (e.g., Wood River ~4.5M bushel storage; York distillation to cut natural gas use 30–40%) to protect and grow margins and cash flow.Green Plains Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.95B | 2.09B | 2.46B | 3.30B | 3.66B | 2.83B |
| Gross Profit | 113.08M | 38.49M | 130.45M | 164.75M | 112.68M | 179.00M |
| EBITDA | 153.39M | 31.29M | 52.38M | 53.60M | 26.64M | 116.09M |
| Net Income | -15.43M | -121.28M | -82.50M | -93.38M | -127.22M | -65.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.59B | 1.58B | 1.78B | 1.94B | 2.12B | 2.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.72M | 182.32M | 173.04M | 349.57M | 444.66M | 551.08M |
| Total Debt | 489.44M | 508.35M | 649.31M | 676.51M | 711.00M | 789.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 795.73M | 806.42M | 907.64M | 949.27M | 1.06B | 1.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 785.18M | 766.25M | 865.22M | 843.73M | 910.03M | 950.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 90.25M | 64.44M | -125.05M | -51.75M | -142.66M | -182.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 117.18M | 101.64M | -29.96M | 56.35M | 69.71M | 4.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 178.40M | 162.13M | -62.05M | -106.90M | -105.25M | -236.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -239.04M | -243.04M | -77.35M | -70.96M | -25.14M | 518.19M |
Green Plains Technical Analysis
Negative
14.82
Price Trends
15.16
Negative
12.83
Positive
11.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
43.72
Neutral
42.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.90, below the 50-day MA of 15.16, and above the 200-day MA of 11.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPRE.
Green Plains Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.64B | 6.38 | 14.68% | ― | 1.35% | 51.46% | |
67 Neutral | $1.27B | 8.60 | -2.02% | ― | -20.16% | 83.66% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $344.73M | 22.86 | 6.00% | ― | -3.69% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $1.20B | -6.91 | -1.15% | 3.33% | 5.46% | -125.23% | |
51 Neutral | $445.44M | -7.45 | -7.21% | ― | 314.95% | 58.49% | |
51 Neutral | $429.12M | -9.25 | -21.83% | 1.61% | -3.44% | -444.16% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Green Plains Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Green Plains Turns Profitable and Raises 2026 EBITDA Guidance
Positive
May 7, 2026
Green Plains reported a sharp turnaround for the first quarter of 2026, posting net income of $32.9 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, compared with a $72.9 million loss a year earlier, on revenues that fell to $445.8 million from $601.5 million...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Green Plains Amends Sustainability-Linked Revolving Credit Facility
Neutral
Apr 23, 2026
On April 17, 2026, Green Plains’ subsidiaries Green Plains Finance Company, Green Plains Grain Company, and Green Plains Trade Group, with Green Plains Inc. as guarantor, further amended their sustainability-linked senior secured revolving c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.