Green Plains (GPRE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $656.45M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: -12.07%
• EPS Growth: -821.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 923
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 69,835,045
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,071,795
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,359,197
• PEG Ratio: 0.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.25
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -174.83
• 1Y Price Target: $12.00
• Price Target Upside: 27.66% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.26B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(6.38% Upside)

Green Plains' overall stock score reflects a mix of financial challenges and strategic improvements. The company's financial performance is a significant concern, with declining revenues and profitability issues. However, recent operational achievements and strategic initiatives, such as debt refinancing and carbon capture advancements, provide a positive outlook for future growth. The technical indicators suggest weak momentum, and the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. Overall, while there are promising strategic developments, the financial challenges weigh heavily on the stock's attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Operational Excellence

Achieving record capacity utilization indicates strong operational efficiency, which can enhance production output and reduce costs, supporting long-term growth.

Debt Refinancing

Refinancing debt to longer maturities at potentially better terms improves financial flexibility and reduces near-term financial pressure.

Carbon Capture Systems

Operational carbon capture systems enhance sustainability efforts and can generate additional revenue through carbon credits, aligning with industry trends.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A significant revenue decline indicates challenges in maintaining sales volume, which can impact profitability and market competitiveness over time.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flow growth suggests difficulties in generating sufficient cash, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Profitability Issues

Ongoing profitability issues can hinder reinvestment in the business and affect long-term financial health, requiring strategic adjustments.

Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment produces and sells ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil. The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment engages in the grain procurement, handling, and storage activities; and commodity marketing business, which purchases, markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil, as well as grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. This segment also provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The Partnership segment offers fuel storage and transportation services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 29 ethanol storage facilities; 4 fuel terminal facilities; and a fleet of approximately 2,300 leased railcars. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Plains generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of ethanol, which is used as a renewable fuel source and oxygenate for gasoline. The company operates several ethanol production facilities, which convert corn and other feedstocks into ethanol and distillers grains. Key revenue streams include the sale of ethanol to fuel blenders and refiners, as well as the sale of distillers grains as animal feed. Additionally, Green Plains earns income from grain storage and handling services, leveraging its infrastructure to facilitate the movement of agricultural products. Strategic partnerships with agricultural producers and renewable energy stakeholders enhance its market position and facilitate growth. The company's focus on operational efficiency and sustainability also contributes to its earnings potential.

Green Plains Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Green Plains is experiencing financial difficulties, with declining revenues and persistent losses impacting profitability. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but negative returns on equity highlight the need for strategic improvements. Cash flow management is a concern, with negative free cash flow growth and volatility in cash flow ratios. The company needs to address these challenges to enhance financial stability and performance.

Income Statement

Green Plains has faced declining revenue over the recent periods, with a negative revenue growth rate of -2.68% in the TTM. The gross profit margin has decreased to 3.52%, indicating pressure on profitability. The net profit margin is negative at -6.34%, reflecting ongoing losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.78, which is moderate but indicates some leverage. Return on equity is negative at -18.28%, showing that the company is not generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall balance sheet suggests a need for improved profitability and asset management.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow remains negative, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unusually high due to negative net income, suggesting volatility in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.25B	2.46B	3.30B	3.66B	2.83B	1.92B
Gross Profit	102.93M	130.45M	164.75M	112.68M	179.00M	85.43M
EBITDA	-5.09M	52.38M	53.60M	26.64M	116.09M	-42.89M
Net Income	-188.15M	-82.50M	-93.38M	-127.22M	-65.99M	-108.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.53B	1.78B	1.94B	2.12B	2.16B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	135.90M	173.04M	349.57M	444.66M	551.08M	233.86M
Total Debt	434.89M	649.31M	676.51M	711.00M	789.32M	590.61M
Total Liabilities	757.53M	907.64M	949.27M	1.06B	1.06B	802.25M
Stockholders Equity	768.92M	865.22M	843.73M	910.03M	950.50M	646.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-42.57M	-125.05M	-51.75M	-142.66M	-182.95M	-11.68M
Operating Cash Flow	16.55M	-29.96M	56.35M	69.71M	4.25M	98.89M
Investing Cash Flow	143.54M	-62.05M	-106.90M	-105.25M	-236.28M	-11.45M
Financing Cash Flow	-200.43M	-77.35M	-70.96M	-25.14M	518.19M	-82.53M

Green Plains Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.89, below the 50-day MA of 10.16, and above the 200-day MA of 7.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRE.

Green Plains Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	78 Outperform	$1.12B	22.67	8.89%	―	-3.10%	-22.31%
SCL	66 Neutral	$1.08B	24.05	3.67%	3.26%	5.35%	-1.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ALTO	59 Neutral	$228.94M	-4.24	-20.64%	―	-8.00%	-35.86%
GPRE	56 Neutral	$656.45M	-3.21	-22.21%	―	-12.07%	-821.68%
GEVO	55 Neutral	$523.39M	-11.23	-9.27%	―	675.75%	42.00%
OEC	48 Neutral	$284.12M	-8.71	-7.24%	1.56%	-4.31%	-206.57%

Green Plains Corporate Events

Green Plains Completes Convertible Notes Exchange and Issuance

On October 27, 2025, Green Plains Inc. completed a series of financial transactions involving the exchange of $170 million of its 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 for newly issued 5.25% Convertible Senior Notes due November 2030, and issued an additional $30 million of the 2030 Notes through subscription agreements. These transactions resulted in $200 million of the 2030 Notes being outstanding, with the company using $30 million of the proceeds to repurchase approximately 2.9 million shares of its common stock. The 2030 Notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, are convertible into cash, stock, or a combination thereof, with specific conditions for redemption and conversion. This strategic financial maneuver is aimed at optimizing Green Plains’ capital structure and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

Green Plains Announces Convertible Notes Exchange and Stock Buyback

On October 22, 2025, Green Plains Inc. announced it had entered into exchange agreements to swap $170 million of its 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 for newly issued 5.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, and subscription agreements to issue $30 million of 2030 Notes for cash. The company also plans to repurchase approximately 2.9 million shares of its common stock for $30 million, funded by the subscription transactions. These transactions, expected to close on October 27, 2025, will result in $200 million of 2030 Notes outstanding and $60 million of 2027 Notes remaining. The 2030 Notes have a conversion rate of 63.6132 shares per $1,000 principal amount, with a conversion premium of about 50% over the last reported stock price.

Green Plains Sells Ethanol Plant to POET Biorefining

On September 25, 2025, Green Plains Inc. completed the sale of its ethanol plant in Rives, Tennessee, to POET Biorefining for $190 million in cash. This transaction, which includes an estimated $20 million in working capital, was used to retire the company’s junior mezzanine notes due in 2026 and enhance corporate liquidity, aligning with Green Plains’ strategy to optimize its portfolio and advance carbon reduction initiatives.

Green Plains Signs Tax Credit Agreement with Freepoint

On September 16, 2025, Green Plains Inc. entered into a Tax Credit Purchase Agreement with Freepoint Commodities C LLC to supply production tax credits from ethanol production at its Nebraska facilities for the year 2025. This agreement is expected to deliver up to $65 million worth of credits, with the potential to extend the term and scope through 2029. The deal highlights Green Plains’ strategy to monetize low-carbon intensity ethanol production and expand its visibility in the carbon credit market, potentially generating between $40 and $50 million in 2025 45Z EBITDA net of discounts.