Green Plains (GPRE)
NASDAQ:GPRE
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Green Plains
(NASDAQ:GPRE)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(3.34% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
GPRE scores mid-range mainly because financial performance remains constrained by declining revenue and persistent net losses, despite improved 2025 cash flow and lower debt. Technicals are a clear positive with strong uptrend signals, while valuation is weakened by negative earnings and no dividend yield data. The earnings call adds support via improved Q4 profitability and strong 2026 carbon-related EBITDA outlook, tempered by monetization and leverage-related risks.
Positive Factors
Carbon capture monetization
By bringing CO2 compression online and sequestering CO2, the company established a durable, higher-margin cash stream separate from ethanol commodity spreads. Management's $188M 2026 carbon EBITDA estimate implies structural diversification of cash flows, improved unit economics, and durable competitive advantage in low‑CI fuels.
Negative Factors
Persistent revenue declines and losses
Multi-year revenue declines and recurring negative net margins signal structural demand, pricing, or mix challenges that have prevented consistent profitability. Continued losses can erode equity, limit reinvestment, and make long-term planning dependent on one‑off items or cyclical tailwinds unless operational margins sustainably improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Carbon capture monetization
By bringing CO2 compression online and sequestering CO2, the company established a durable, higher-margin cash stream separate from ethanol commodity spreads. Management's $188M 2026 carbon EBITDA estimate implies structural diversification of cash flows, improved unit economics, and durable competitive advantage in low‑CI fuels.
Read all positive factors
Green Plains (GPRE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.13B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth-12.07%
EPS Growth-821.68%
CountryUS
Employees923
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding69,838,844
10 Day Avg. Volume1,652,555
30 Day Avg. Volume1,584,313
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.14
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio10.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit37.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda46.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.00Price Target Upside-14.89% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.24B
Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment produc...
How the Company Makes Money
Green Plains primarily makes money by producing and selling ethanol and by selling co-products generated during ethanol production. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Ethanol sales: The company buys corn and other inputs, converts them into etha...
Green Plains Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Ethanol Gallons Sold
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGreen Plains Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call presented a positive operational and financial turnaround: the company moved from a prior-year loss to Q4 profitability, materially improved adjusted EBITDA, brought carbon capture online (driving cash and an estimated $188M of carbon-related EBITDA for 2026), raised stated production capacity by 10%, and refinanced near-term debt while maintaining healthy liquidity. Key risks and negatives include a 26.6% YoY revenue decline in Q4 driven by asset sales and idling, cash timing for carbon receipts, remaining debt and compression liabilities on the balance sheet (~$504M total debt), uncertainty in monetization discounts for 45Z credits, and some commodity/operational headwinds (protein price pressure, weather-related interruptions). On balance, the highlights — especially carbon monetization, operational gains, and balance sheet refinancings — outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Operational Performance and Record Yields
Four plants reached historical production volumes and seven plants achieved record ethanol yields in 2025; fleet generated volumes above prior stated capacities, driving improved throughput and efficiency.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Q4
Q4 2025 revenue was $428.8 million, down 26.6% year-over-year. Management attributes the decline to the Obion plant sale, idling of Fairmont in January, and discontinuing third-party ethanol marketing which reduced gallons available to sell.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational Performance and Record Yields
Four plants reached historical production volumes and seven plants achieved record ethanol yields in 2025; fleet generated volumes above prior stated capacities, driving improved throughput and efficiency.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance and forward-looking metrics emphasized capacity, carbon monetization, cost controls and liquidity: updated plant production capacity (ex-Fairmont) is now 730 million gallons/year (a 10% increase), with Central City and Wood River at 120 mmgal each, Mount Vernon 110, Madison 100, Shenandoah 80, Otter Tail and Superior 70 each, and York increased to 60 (from 50); all five compressors are online at the Nebraska sites capturing >90% of CO2 and the carbon program is expected to generate at least $188 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2026 (≈$150M from the three Nebraska plants, incl. voluntary credits, plus ≈$38M net 45Z benefit from other plants); Q4 results included adjusted EBITDA of $49.1M (vs. -$18.2M YoY), Q4 net income of $11.9M (17¢/share), Q4 revenue $428.8M (down 26.6% YoY) and $27.7M of 45Z tax credit benefit net of discounts; cost and balance-sheet guidance includes Q4 SG&A $22.9M with a 2026 SG&A run rate targeted in the low $90M (>$25M improvement vs. 2024), Q4 D&A $23.5M, Q4 interest $6.1M and 2026 interest guidance of $30–35M, a normalized tax rate of ~23–24% and federal NOLs of $260.2M, quarter-end liquidity of $230.1M cash (plus $325M revolver availability), Q4 CapEx $5.3M with 2026 sustaining CapEx $15–25M, total debt ~ $504M (inclusive of carbon equipment liabilities), and a refinanced $200M convertible due 2030 (used $30M to repurchase ~2.9M shares) while $60M of 2027 convertibles remain outstanding.Green Plains Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.09B | 2.46B | 3.30B | 3.66B | 2.83B |
| Gross Profit | 38.49M | 130.45M | 164.75M | 112.68M | 179.00M |
| EBITDA | 31.29M | 52.38M | 53.60M | 26.64M | 116.09M |
| Net Income | -121.28M | -82.50M | -93.38M | -127.22M | -65.99M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.58B | 1.78B | 1.94B | 2.12B | 2.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 182.32M | 173.04M | 349.57M | 444.66M | 551.08M |
| Total Debt | 508.35M | 649.31M | 676.51M | 711.00M | 789.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 806.42M | 907.64M | 949.27M | 1.06B | 1.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 766.25M | 865.22M | 843.73M | 910.03M | 950.50M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 64.44M | -125.05M | -51.75M | -142.66M | -182.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 101.64M | -29.96M | 56.35M | 69.71M | 4.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 162.13M | -62.05M | -106.90M | -105.25M | -236.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -243.04M | -77.35M | -70.96M | -25.14M | 518.19M |
Green Plains Technical Analysis
Positive
16.45
Price Trends
14.24
Positive
12.15
Positive
10.48
Positive
Market Momentum
0.67
Positive
58.73
Neutral
53.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.94, above the 50-day MA of 14.24, and above the 200-day MA of 10.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRE.
Green Plains Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.46B | 13.54 | 14.68% | ― | -3.10% | -22.31% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $1.13B | 23.10 | 3.80% | 3.33% | 5.35% | -1.43% | |
60 Neutral | $370.24M | 16.09 | 6.00% | ― | -8.00% | -35.86% | |
58 Neutral | $1.13B | -5.45 | -15.81% | ― | -12.07% | -821.68% | |
53 Neutral | $581.56M | -13.83 | 0.26% | ― | 675.75% | 42.00% | |
53 Neutral | $369.16M | -4.24 | -7.24% | 1.61% | -4.31% | -206.57% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Green Plains Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Green Plains Appoints Ryan Loneman as General Counsel
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Green Plains Inc. announced it had appointed Ryan Loneman as General Counsel and Secretary, effective January 26, 2026, expanding its leadership team and placing him in charge of the company’s legal function as a key adv...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Green Plains Appoints New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Jan 5, 2026
On January 5, 2026, Green Plains Inc. announced the appointment of Ann Reis as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 6, 2026, marking a key change in its senior leadership team. Reis, who previously served as CFO, Chief Accounting Officer and...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.