Granite Point Mortgage (GPMT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $84.19M
• Dividend Yield: 7.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 209.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.13
• Revenue Growth: -28.13%
• EPS Growth: 62.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 33
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): -0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 47,563,644
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 250,377
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 209,100
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 43.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 13.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 72.12
• 1Y Price Target: $2.05
• Price Target Upside: 15.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $34.45M

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-15.25% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is held down primarily by weak fundamentals—recurring losses and a sharp deterioration in cash generation to zero in 2025—along with bearish technicals (below key moving averages and negative MACD). These are partly offset by a high dividend yield and a somewhat improved outlook from management actions and 2026 regrowth/leverage targets, though near-term credit costs and problem-loan concentration remain significant risks.

Positive Factors

Senior floating-rate loan focus

A portfolio concentrated in senior, floating-rate first mortgages aligns asset yields with funding costs and reduces interest-rate sensitivity versus fixed-rate holdings. Over months this supports net interest margin resilience and lowers loss severity due to senior secured claims.

Meaningful deleveraging from 2022–2025

Significant reduction in nominal debt from 2022–23 peaks demonstrates active balance-sheet de-risking. Lower leverage reduces funding vulnerability, enhances capacity to withstand credit shocks, and creates flexibility to resolve problem loans or restart originations as markets improve.

Lowered funding costs and funding diversity

Repaying higher-cost facilities cut funding expense and improved margins; combined with a diversified funding mix and management's leverage target, this structural cost reduction sustainably boosts net interest income potential and eases pressure on distributable cash over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Collapse in cash generation (2025)

Cash generation drying up to zero is a durable red flag: without operating cash the REIT must rely on asset sales, capital raises, or liability restructuring to fund distributions and operations. This weakens financial flexibility and raises the probability of further balance-sheet actions.

Concentrated problem-loan exposure

High concentration in a few troubled credits creates outsized idiosyncratic risk: protracted resolutions or additional mark-to-market declines on these loans can produce material credit losses, further impair book value, and constrain reinvestment or originations for multiple quarters.

Recurring net losses and weak profitability

Persistent GAAP losses and negative ROE in most years indicate the capital base has not generated consistent returns. Volatile profitability undermines retained capital growth, increases reliance on external financing, and makes sustaining dividends and rebuilding equity cushions more difficult over the medium term.

Granite Point Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc., a real estate investment trust, originates, invests in, and manages senior floating-rate commercial mortgage loans, and other debt and debt-like commercial real estate investments in the United States. The company provides intermediate-term bridge or transitional financing for various purposes, including acquisitions, recapitalizations, and refinancing, as well as a range of business plans, including lease-up, renovation, repositioning, and repurposing of the commercial property. As of December 31, 2021, its investment portfolio includes 105 commercial real estate loan investments. Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its portfolio of commercial real estate loans. The company originates loans, typically senior floating rate loans, and earns interest over the life of the loan. GPMT also benefits from fees associated with loan origination and, occasionally, from the sale of loans or other real estate investments. By focusing on floating rate loans, GPMT seeks to position itself favorably in varying interest rate environments, which can impact its net interest income. The company's performance is influenced by factors such as prevailing interest rates, credit conditions in the commercial real estate market, and the overall economic environment.

Granite Point Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Despite a 2025 revenue rebound (+54% YoY) and some deleveraging (debt down materially from 2022–2023 peaks), earnings quality is weak with recurring net losses and volatile profitability. Cash generation is the key drag: operating and free cash flow fell to zero in 2025, raising sustainability concerns.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded sharply in 2025 (+54% YoY) and the company posted strong gross profitability in that year, but overall earnings quality remains weak: net income has been negative in most years shown (large losses in 2022–2025), and profitability has been volatile with unusually inconsistent margin behavior (including negative revenue years in 2023–2024). The trajectory shows a rebound in 2025, but not yet a sustained return to consistent profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is high for the period, with debt-to-equity consistently around ~2.1–2.5x, which increases sensitivity to asset value changes and funding conditions. Positively, total debt has come down meaningfully from 2022–2023 peaks (about $2.43B in 2022 and $1.95B in 2023 to ~$1.15B in 2025), and assets have also declined, suggesting balance-sheet contraction/de-risking. However, returns on equity are negative in most years (including 2025), indicating the capital base has not been generating consistent shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation deteriorated materially: operating cash flow and free cash flow fell to zero in 2025 versus positive levels in prior years, and cash flow growth is sharply negative. In 2024, operating cash flow was very small relative to the scale of losses, and the cash conversion signal weakens further in 2025 with no operating/free cash flow support, raising concerns about the sustainability of operations and distributions without balance-sheet actions.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	145.28M	-165.53M	-22.67M	78.26M	87.53M
Gross Profit	120.62M	-170.88M	-27.99M	78.26M	87.53M
EBITDA	56.88M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	-41.15M	-207.05M	-63.20M	-40.83M	68.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.76B	2.12B	2.85B	3.45B	3.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	65.96M	87.79M	188.37M	133.13M	191.93M
Total Debt	1.15B	1.47B	1.95B	2.43B	2.26B
Total Liabilities	1.20B	1.50B	1.99B	2.47B	2.97B
Stockholders Equity	552.69M	619.09M	858.90M	984.54M	1.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.67M	5.99M	52.10M	58.90M	60.30M
Operating Cash Flow	2.67M	8.76M	52.10M	58.90M	60.30M
Investing Cash Flow	299.00M	435.24M	561.43M	408.63M	139.77M
Financing Cash Flow	-336.07M	-528.74M	-554.47M	-531.66M	-324.97M

Granite Point Mortgage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPMT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.91, below the 50-day MA of 2.16, and below the 200-day MA of 2.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPMT.

Granite Point Mortgage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
SEVN	65 Neutral	$193.88M	8.58	5.72%	13.82%	-18.06%	-18.94%
CHMI	57 Neutral	$96.99M	-21.41	―	21.65%	22.14%	―
LFT	53 Neutral	$71.22M	14.06	4.14%	23.03%	-31.69%	-72.10%
ACRE	51 Neutral	$285.70M	-254.19	-0.17%	13.75%	-30.60%	87.95%
ACR	47 Neutral	$136.75M	19.56	6.58%	―	-18.37%	18.80%
GPMT	45 Neutral	$84.19M	-1.51	-7.12%	7.97%	-28.13%	62.49%

Granite Point Mortgage Corporate Events

Granite Point Mortgage Highlights Portfolio in January 2026 Update

Granite Point Mortgage Trust has released a January 2026 investor presentation providing a detailed business overview that highlights its $1.8 billion portfolio of 44 primarily senior, floating-rate first mortgage loans on transitional U.S. commercial real estate, with a realized loan portfolio yield of 7.5% as of the latest reported period and a weighted average stabilized loan-to-value ratio of 65%. The presentation underscores the company’s strategy of value-oriented, credit-intensive underwriting, broad geographic diversification, and a balanced, largely non-mark-to-market financing profile using CLO securitizations, repurchase facilities and a secured credit facility, positioning the REIT as a cycle-tested, non-bank lender expected to benefit from ongoing shifts in commercial real estate lending market share away from traditional banks.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPMT) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Granite Point Mortgage stock, see the GPMT Stock Forecast page.