Granite Point Mortgage (GPMT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $100.97M
• Dividend Yield: 7.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 188.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: -28.13%
• EPS Growth: 62.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 33
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): -0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 47,405,735
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 158,154
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 188,181
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): -0.83
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.09
• 1Y Price Target: $2.50
• Price Target Upside: 17.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $39.83M

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▲(17.37% Upside)

The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance (large losses and negative cash flow) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). A high dividend yield and a constructive portfolio/strategy update provide partial support but do not outweigh the profitability and cash sustainability risks.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

Eliminating total debt enhances financial flexibility and reduces interest expenses, positioning the company for better capital allocation and resilience against economic fluctuations.

Loan Resolutions

Successful loan resolutions improve asset quality and free up capital for new investments, supporting long-term portfolio stability and growth.

Share Buyback Program

The share buyback program reflects management's confidence in the company's valuation and can enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A significant drop in revenue impacts profitability and limits the company's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities, posing a challenge to long-term financial health.

High Non-performing Loans

A high level of non-performing loans indicates credit risk and potential losses, which can strain financial resources and hinder future lending capabilities.

Credit Loss Provisions

Substantial credit loss provisions reduce net income and highlight ongoing credit risk, challenging the company's profitability and capital adequacy.

Granite Point Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc., a real estate investment trust, originates, invests in, and manages senior floating-rate commercial mortgage loans, and other debt and debt-like commercial real estate investments in the United States. The company provides intermediate-term bridge or transitional financing for various purposes, including acquisitions, recapitalizations, and refinancing, as well as a range of business plans, including lease-up, renovation, repositioning, and repurposing of the commercial property. As of December 31, 2021, its investment portfolio includes 105 commercial real estate loan investments. Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its portfolio of commercial real estate loans. The company originates loans, typically senior floating rate loans, and earns interest over the life of the loan. GPMT also benefits from fees associated with loan origination and, occasionally, from the sale of loans or other real estate investments. By focusing on floating rate loans, GPMT seeks to position itself favorably in varying interest rate environments, which can impact its net interest income. The company's performance is influenced by factors such as prevailing interest rates, credit conditions in the commercial real estate market, and the overall economic environment.

Granite Point Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue rebounded in TTM, and leverage improved sharply with total debt reduced to $0, but profitability remains very weak (large net loss, deeply negative net margin) and cash generation has turned negative (TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow below zero).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded strongly (+34.9%), but profitability remains weak with a large net loss (net margin -134.4%) despite positive EBITDA margin (~22.6%). Annual results show a sharp deterioration in 2024 (revenue turned negative and losses widened versus 2023), highlighting elevated earnings volatility and limited visibility on sustainable profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved meaningfully: total debt fell from ~$2.43B (2022) and ~$1.47B (2024) to $0 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reducing balance-sheet risk. However, returns remain pressured with negative return on equity in the most recent periods (TTM ROE about -14.6%), and equity has trended down from 2021–2024, signaling ongoing value erosion despite the cleaner capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is currently strained: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is slightly negative and free cash flow is negative, reversing prior years where operating and free cash flow were positive (notably 2021–2023). While free cash flow appears favorable versus net income in TTM due to the accounting loss, the underlying negative cash flow trend and declining free cash flow growth point to weaker near-term cash sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	90.77M	-165.53M	-22.67M	78.26M	87.53M	104.93M
Gross Profit	45.47M	-170.88M	-27.99M	78.26M	87.53M	104.93M
EBITDA	18.28M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	-56.39M	-207.05M	-63.20M	-40.83M	68.35M	-40.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.81B	2.12B	2.85B	3.45B	3.99B	4.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	62.69M	87.79M	188.37M	133.13M	191.93M	261.42M
Total Debt	0.00	1.47B	1.95B	2.43B	2.26B	1.53B
Total Liabilities	1.22B	1.50B	1.99B	2.47B	2.97B	3.28B
Stockholders Equity	581.99M	619.09M	858.90M	984.54M	1.01B	933.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-3.26M	5.99M	52.10M	58.90M	60.30M	20.25M
Operating Cash Flow	-425.00K	8.76M	52.10M	58.90M	60.30M	20.25M
Investing Cash Flow	402.07M	435.24M	561.43M	408.63M	139.77M	341.62M
Financing Cash Flow	-452.45M	-528.74M	-554.47M	-531.66M	-324.97M	-192.44M

Granite Point Mortgage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPMT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.29, below the 50-day MA of 2.46, and below the 200-day MA of 2.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPMT.

Granite Point Mortgage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SEVN	66 Neutral	$194.80M	8.42	5.72%	13.82%	-18.06%	-18.94%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
CHMI	57 Neutral	$98.83M	140.10	4.55%	21.65%	22.14%	―
ACRE	53 Neutral	$286.69M	-35.78	-1.42%	13.75%	-30.60%	87.95%
LFT	53 Neutral	$70.17M	13.86	4.14%	23.03%	-31.69%	-72.10%
ACR	47 Neutral	$139.52M	19.96	6.58%	―	-18.37%	18.80%
GPMT	46 Neutral	$100.97M	―	-9.11%	7.97%	-28.13%	62.49%

Granite Point Mortgage Corporate Events

Granite Point Mortgage Highlights Portfolio in January 2026 Update

Granite Point Mortgage Trust has released a January 2026 investor presentation providing a detailed business overview that highlights its $1.8 billion portfolio of 44 primarily senior, floating-rate first mortgage loans on transitional U.S. commercial real estate, with a realized loan portfolio yield of 7.5% as of the latest reported period and a weighted average stabilized loan-to-value ratio of 65%. The presentation underscores the company’s strategy of value-oriented, credit-intensive underwriting, broad geographic diversification, and a balanced, largely non-mark-to-market financing profile using CLO securitizations, repurchase facilities and a secured credit facility, positioning the REIT as a cycle-tested, non-bank lender expected to benefit from ongoing shifts in commercial real estate lending market share away from traditional banks.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPMT) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Granite Point Mortgage stock, see the GPMT Stock Forecast page.