Clinical Trial RisksThe bear case presents a risk of a 30–70% downside if aleniglipron shows near 10% efficacy with worse tolerability or a clear miss with 10% discontinuations.
Market Reaction RisksRecent obesity data for a similar drug, orfoglipron, received poorly by investors, highlighting the risk of market reactions to clinical trial outcomes.
Participant Retention ChallengesApproximately 25% of participants discontinued the study for any reason across all arms, indicating some challenges with participant retention.