Glencore Plc (GLNCY)
OTHER OTC:GLNCY
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Glencore
(OTC:GLNCY)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
â–²(6.10% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is held back mainly by fair-but-volatile fundamentals (thin 2025 profitability after a 2024 loss, rising leverage, softer recent free cash flow). Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is a key risk due to the very high P/E and modest yield. The latest earnings call was constructive with maintained guidance and continued shareholder returns, partially offsetting operational and commodity-cycle headwinds.
Positive Factors
Integrated marketing and industrial model
Glencore’s integrated model (owned production plus a large marketing/logistics franchise) creates durable competitive advantage. The marketing arm captures arbitrage, logistics and optimization margins across cycles, smoothing cash flow and leveraging physical assets to sustain margins over years.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and weaker balance sheet
Increased leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk in a down cycle. With equity lower than prior peaks, the company has less buffer to absorb commodity-driven earnings shocks, constraining capacity for opportunistic investment or rapid de‑leveraging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated marketing and industrial model
Glencore’s integrated model (owned production plus a large marketing/logistics franchise) creates durable competitive advantage. The marketing arm captures arbitrage, logistics and optimization margins across cycles, smoothing cash flow and leveraging physical assets to sustain margins over years.
Read all positive factors
Glencore (GLNCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$88.02B
Dividend Yield1.61%
Average Volume (3M)826.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)178.7
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth3.04%
EPS Growth-300.82%
CountryUS
Employees84,146
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding5,867,677,700
10 Day Avg. Volume666,150
30 Day Avg. Volume826,549
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.45
Price to Book (P/B)1.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio167.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit22.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.90Price Target Upside12.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$257.29B
Glencore Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Glencore plc produces, refines, processes, stores, transports, and markets metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. It operates through two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activitie...
How the Company Makes Money
Glencore primarily makes money through two integrated activities: (1) Industrial operations (mining/processing) and (2) Marketing (physical commodity trading). Industrial operations generate revenue by extracting and producing commodities—such as ...
Glencore Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive financial and operational story: a strong FY2025 adjusted EBITDA ($13.5bn), robust metals (particularly copper and zinc) performance, marketing strength, disciplined operational delivery with two consecutive years of meeting production guidance, important portfolio and permitting progress (Quechua, KCC land, MARA/Alumbrera, NewRange), and healthy capital returns and balance sheet metrics (dividend declared $2bn, ongoing buyback/distribution framework, and $27bn returned since 2021). Offsetting these positives were notable challenges: coal and energy segment weakness (negative ~$2.4bn variance), copper volume shortfalls driven by Collahuasi, temporary cobalt sales constraints, a significant one-off tax cash payment (~$1bn), impairments and care-and-maintenance costs, and working capital volatility tied to price moves. Management reiterated disciplined capital allocation, maintained CapEx guidance, and emphasized safety and execution. On balance, the highlights — both in magnitude (EBITDA, cash generation potential, project optionality) and strategic progress — outweigh the lowlights, which are largely either cyclical (commodity prices/volumes) or near-term/tactical (tax payment, impairments, working capital volatility).Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year EBITDA
Reported $13.5 billion adjusted EBITDA for FY2025; industrial adjusted EBITDA approximately $9.9–$10.0 billion and marketing adjusted EBIT $2.9 billion. Second half showed strong momentum vs H1 with half-on-half EBITDA up ~50%.
Negative Updates
Coal & Energy Segment Weakness
Energy and steelmaking coal produced weaker results in FY2025 with a large negative price/market variance year-on-year for coal (~negative $2.4 billion). Although H2 and early 2026 prices improved, coal acted as a significant drag for the period.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year EBITDA
Reported $13.5 billion adjusted EBITDA for FY2025; industrial adjusted EBITDA approximately $9.9–$10.0 billion and marketing adjusted EBIT $2.9 billion. Second half showed strong momentum vs H1 with half-on-half EBITDA up ~50%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: management kept 2026 operational guidance unchanged after meeting production targets for a second consecutive year, reiterated a pro‑forma net debt target of ~$10bn and declared a $2bn shareholder distribution (part of $27bn returned since 2021); CapEx net was $6.9bn in 2025 and CMD guidance remains ~ $6.5bn p.a. on average for 2026–28 (with EVR averaging ~ $1.3bn p.a. over 2026–28 and Alumbrera restart ~$200–300m); spot‑illustrative outcomes shown included group EBITDA ~$18.1bn and free cash flow ~$7bn, industrial EBITDA ~$14.6bn (2025 industrial ~$9.9bn; group adjusted EBITDA $13.5bn), marketing EBIT ~$2.9bn, and a copper unit cash cost profile around $1.85/lb in 2026 (asset level ~$1.56/lb; 2024 ~$1.74/lb, 2025 ~ $1.99/lb) falling to ~$1.18–$1.08/lb by 2028–29 as copper production scales to ~1.0Mtpa by 2028 and to ~1.6Mtpa (with >2Mtpa optionality by 2035); key macro assumptions noted included copper avg moving from ~$8,600 to ~$12,400 (≈+44%), zinc ~$3,000→$3,300, gold ~$4,200→$4,900, Newcastle thermal coal >$120/t and spot steelmaking coal spikes to ~$250/t (forwards ~ $220s).Glencore Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 248.82B | 230.94B | 217.83B | 255.98B | 203.75B |
| Gross Profit | 5.40B | 6.65B | 10.78B | 27.52B | 12.38B |
| EBITDA | 10.36B | 8.52B | 15.32B | 29.71B | 12.62B |
| Net Income | 364.86M | -1.63B | 4.28B | 17.32B | 4.97B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 142.20B | 130.46B | 123.87B | 132.58B | 127.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.95B | 2.17B | 1.93B | 1.92B | 3.24B |
| Total Debt | 42.74B | 38.11B | 32.24B | 28.78B | 34.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 108.59B | 94.80B | 85.63B | 87.36B | 90.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 38.86B | 40.67B | 43.58B | 49.41B | 39.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 388.98M | 4.44B | 6.55B | 9.48B | 5.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.35B | 10.05B | 11.04B | 13.66B | 8.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.87B | -11.72B | -3.56B | -1.72B | -541.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -985.02M | 2.14B | -7.49B | -13.20B | -6.52B |
Glencore Technical Analysis
Positive
15.08
Price Trends
14.00
Positive
12.42
Positive
10.44
Positive
Market Momentum
0.35
Negative
64.15
Neutral
87.57
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLNCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.35, above the 50-day MA of 14.00, and above the 200-day MA of 10.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GLNCY.
Glencore Risk Analysis
Glencore disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Glencore reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Glencore Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $196.20B | 6.78 | 21.41% | 3.55% | -7.86% | 14.17% | |
69 Neutral | $167.19B | 13.01 | 16.59% | 4.60% | -0.44% | -4.20% | |
68 Neutral | $70.92B | 22.50 | 6.34% | 10.04% | -8.49% | -41.69% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $88.02B | 178.69 | 0.96% | 1.61% | 3.04% | -300.82% | |
58 Neutral | $1.54B | 8.84 | 14.19% | 1.14% | 7.92% | 91.83% | |
50 Neutral | $790.42M | -5.12 | -22.22% | 1.17% | -16.89% | -403.77% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GLNCY
Glencore
15.08
8.42
126.43%
BHP
BHP Group
77.23
33.79
77.79%
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.23
0.97
29.60%
RIO
Rio Tinto
97.13
43.11
79.80%
VALE
Vale SA
16.65
8.10
94.76%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
11.64
5.77
98.40%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.