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Glencore
(OTC:GLNCY)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(8.54% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is driven primarily by fair but cyclical financial fundamentals (volatile profitability, higher leverage, softer free cash flow) offset by a constructive earnings-call update (on-track guidance, strong H1 cash generation and shareholder returns). Technicals are moderately supportive with the stock above major moving averages, while valuation is the biggest drag due to the extremely high P/E and only modest yield.
Positive Factors
Diversified marketing platform
Glencore combines industrial assets with global commodity marketing and logistics. This diversification can support earnings through supply-chain expertise, regional arbitrage and customer relationships even when individual mining assets or commodities weaken.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Rising leverage reduces flexibility if commodity prices or production weaken. Although recent cash generation lowered net debt, the higher debt-to-equity profile leaves Glencore more dependent on sustained operating performance to fund investment and deleveraging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified marketing platform
Glencore combines industrial assets with global commodity marketing and logistics. This diversification can support earnings through supply-chain expertise, regional arbitrage and customer relationships even when individual mining assets or commodities weaken.
Read all positive factors
Glencore (GLNCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$95.30B
Dividend Yield1.22%
Average Volume (3M)774.27K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.9
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth30.78%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees140,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.91
Shares Outstanding5,868,989,700
10 Day Avg. Volume822,858
30 Day Avg. Volume774,269
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.45
Price to Book (P/B)1.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio167.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$303.65B
Glencore Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Glencore plc is a global diversified natural resources company actively involved in the production, refinement, processing, storage, transport, and marketing of a wide array of metals, minerals, and energy products. Its extensive operations span c...
How the Company Makes Money
Glencore primarily makes money through two major activities: (1) Industrial operations and (2) Marketing (commodities trading and logistics).\n\n1) Industrial operations (production-based earnings)\n- Mining and processing: Glencore owns and opera...
Glencore Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong financial and operational performance: a very cash-generative H1 (adjusted EBITDA $10.1bn), near-record marketing earnings, meaningful copper volume and EBITDA growth, progress across multiple copper growth projects and a prudent capital-return package backed by a strengthened balance sheet. Offsetting this were serious safety failures (four fatalities), transient but material input cost pressures (diesel, sulphur, sulphuric acid, FX), elevated working capital from market volatility and some asset-level underperformance and accounting-driven temporary cost impacts. On balance, the positive cash generation, project derisking and shareholder returns materially outweigh the challenges, though safety and cost volatility are clear near-term priorities.Positive Updates
Strong consolidated earnings and cash generation
Adjusted EBITDA of $10.1bn for H1 2026 (industrial EBITDA $6.5bn). Net income of $4.4bn and funds from operations up 158% to $8.1bn. Net debt reduced to $10.2bn (≈$1bn lower versus prior), supporting capital returns.
Negative Updates
Fatal safety incidents and regression in safety metrics
The company reported a regression in safety with 4 colleagues lost across 2 incidents in the period; management stated this is a 'wake-up call', committing to redoubled safety actions and focus on zero harm.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong consolidated earnings and cash generation
Adjusted EBITDA of $10.1bn for H1 2026 (industrial EBITDA $6.5bn). Net income of $4.4bn and funds from operations up 158% to $8.1bn. Net debt reduced to $10.2bn (≈$1bn lower versus prior), supporting capital returns.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated it is on track to meet full‑year 2026 guidance, reporting H1 adjusted industrial EBITDA $6.5bn and group adjusted EBITDA $10.1bn (marketing EBIT H1 $3.3bn), funds from operations $8.1bn and closing net debt $10.2bn (pro‑forma ~ $10bn); they announced a $1.5bn shareholder top‑up ($1.0bn cash + $0.5bn buyback) and a secondary ASX listing targeted for Oct‑2026 aiming for ASX200 inclusion within 12 months (AUD1.5bn) and ASX100 (~AUD5.5bn). CapEx guidance was increased ~5% from $6.5bn to about $6.8bn (H1 industrial CapEx capitalized $3.9bn; $0.3bn to secure KCC land), and management published illustrative full‑year run‑rates including copper production ~840kt (illustrative copper EBITDA ~$6.5bn), zinc ~$1.9bn, steelmaking‑coal EBITDA ~$2.7bn (31Mt full year: 13.5Mt H1 / 17.5Mt H2) and energy coal ~$1.1bn. They reaffirmed copper targets of ~1.0Mt by 2028 and ~1.6Mt by 2035, brought Alumbrera restart forward to late‑2027, expect Collahuasi leach cathode by year‑end, and cautioned that transitory cost headwinds (diesel, sulphur/sulphuric acid) have lifted DRC input costs ~40% vs budget (sulphur +67%) while Q2 Brent averaged ~$91.3/bbl (vs $61 YTD).Glencore Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 304.72B | 247.53B | 230.94B | 217.83B | 255.98B | 203.75B |
| Gross Profit | 10.29B | 5.04B | 6.65B | 10.78B | 27.52B | 12.38B |
| EBITDA | 14.35B | 10.36B | 8.52B | 15.32B | 29.71B | 12.62B |
| Net Income | 5.43B | 364.86M | -1.63B | 4.28B | 17.32B | 4.97B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 155.45B | 142.20B | 130.46B | 123.87B | 132.58B | 127.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.63B | 2.95B | 2.17B | 1.93B | 1.92B | 3.24B |
| Total Debt | 45.26B | 41.49B | 38.11B | 32.24B | 28.78B | 34.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 118.64B | 108.59B | 94.80B | 85.63B | 87.36B | 90.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 41.72B | 38.86B | 40.67B | 43.58B | 49.41B | 39.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -154.18M | 388.98M | 4.44B | 6.55B | 9.48B | 5.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.57B | 6.35B | 10.05B | 11.04B | 13.66B | 8.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.38B | -4.87B | -11.72B | -3.56B | -1.72B | -541.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -248.80M | -985.02M | 2.14B | -7.49B | -13.20B | -6.52B |
Glencore Technical Analysis
Positive
14.28
Price Trends
14.47
Positive
14.86
Positive
13.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.38
Negative
67.48
Neutral
95.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLNCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.93, below the 50-day MA of 14.47, and above the 200-day MA of 13.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GLNCY.
Glencore Risk Analysis
Glencore disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Glencore reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Glencore Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $177.76B | 14.04 | 18.86% | 4.41% | 14.26% | 17.02% | |
73 Outperform | $237.40B | 23.97 | 21.41% | 3.18% | 15.12% | 9.37% | |
67 Neutral | $2.04B | 7.37 | 25.68% | 0.79% | 23.37% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $60.88B | 29.21 | 5.76% | 5.23% | 12.55% | -60.45% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $95.30B | 17.89 | 13.34% | 1.39% | 30.78% | ― | |
42 Neutral | $762.39M | -18.92 | -5.64% | 1.73% | -8.54% | 61.49% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GLNCY
Glencore
16.20
8.49
110.20%
BHP
BHP Group
97.03
43.49
81.24%
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.08
-0.19
-4.40%
RIO
Rio Tinto
105.30
45.94
77.40%
VALE
Vale SA
14.59
5.11
53.95%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
15.40
10.56
218.25%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.