Glencore (GLNCY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $81.37B
• Dividend Yield: 1.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 664.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: 3.04%
• EPS Growth: -300.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 84,146
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 5,867,677,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 759,722
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 664,322
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 29.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.94
• 1Y Price Target: $12.90
• Price Target Upside: -7.33% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.38
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $242.33B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.00 ▲(7.76% Upside)

The score is mainly constrained by financial performance (profitability pressure, declining free cash flow, and relatively high leverage). Technicals show a strong uptrend but are heavily overbought, adding short-term risk. The earnings call was a positive offset with strong EBITDA, shareholder returns, and cost-savings plans, while valuation remains challenged due to a negative P/E and only modest yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified integrated business model

Glencore's integrated model—large trading (marketing) platform plus owned industrial mining assets—creates durable competitiveness by capturing value across the supply chain, smoothing revenue through cycles, and leveraging scale for logistics, counterparty reach and long-term contractual flows.

Strong operating earnings and cash generation

Robust adjusted EBITDA and sizable operating cash generation underpin capacity to fund reinvestment, sustain distributions, and service debt. Persistent cash from operations supports strategic flexibility across commodity cycles and provides a buffer against cyclical downturns in prices.

Management capital returns and structural cost program

A combined focus on disciplined capital returns and a targeted $1bn annualized cost-savings program signals management prioritizing cash allocation and efficiency. If delivered, the savings improve structural margins and free cash flow, strengthening long-term returns and balance sheet repair.

Negative Factors

Relatively high leverage

Material leverage increases vulnerability to commodity price swings and interest-rate moves. High debt levels constrain financial flexibility for capex or opportunistic M&A, raise refinancing risk in weaker cycles, and can amplify earnings volatility and downside in stressed markets.

Declining free cash flow and negative net income

Declining free cash flow and a negative net income reading reduce internal funding for investment and deleveraging. Over time this can force reliance on asset sales or higher leverage to maintain returns, undermining the durability of shareholder distributions and capital investment plans.

Commodity-price and operational headwinds

Significant falls in coal prices and regulatory-driven cobalt disruptions show structural commodity and jurisdictional risk. Persistent price weakness or regulatory limits can depress industrial segment earnings, force higher inventory or stockpiling costs, and reduce long-term cash generation reliability.

Glencore Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Glencore plc produces, refines, processes, stores, transports, and markets metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. It operates through two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities. The company produces and markets copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc, lead, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, alumina, aluminum, tin, and iron ore. It also engages in the oil exploration/production, distribution, storage, and bunkering activities; and offers coal, crude oil and oil products, refined products, and natural gas. In addition, the company markets and distributes physical commodities sourced from third party producers and its production to industrial consumers in the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries. Further, it provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities. The company was formerly known as Glencore Xstrata plc and changed its name to Glencore plc in May 2014. Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

Glencore generates revenue primarily through the sale and trading of commodities. The company operates a marketing division that acts as a trader and facilitator, purchasing commodities from producers and selling them to customers, which includes industrial users and other traders. Key revenue streams include the sale of metals such as copper and zinc, energy products like coal and oil, and agricultural commodities. Additionally, Glencore benefits from its operational activities in mining and production, where it earns revenue from the extraction and sale of raw materials. The company has established significant partnerships with various producers and customers globally, enhancing its trading capabilities. Factors contributing to Glencore's earnings include commodity price fluctuations, the global demand for resources, and its ability to manage logistics and supply chain efficiencies effectively.

Glencore Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: profitability weakened with erratic margins and negative net income in 2024, revenue declined in 2024 vs. 2023, and free cash flow fell. The balance sheet is moderately stable but carries relatively high leverage, increasing risk in volatile commodity markets.

Income Statement

Glencore shows a mixed performance in its income statement. Gross profit margin has generally been low, with a significant decline in gross profit from 2022 to 2024, reflecting operational challenges. The net profit margin has been erratic, turning negative in 2024, highlighting profitability issues. Revenue showed a decline in 2024 relative to 2023, indicating potential challenges in sustaining sales growth. Despite these challenges, EBITDA margin has shown resilience in the past, although current EBIT is zero, reflecting operational cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet demonstrates moderate stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk in volatile market conditions. Return on equity has been inconsistent, with recent negative net income impacting overall returns. However, equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure. The company's financial position is supported by a substantial asset base, although maintaining lower leverage would be beneficial.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns. The free cash flow has declined from 2023 to 2024, which may constrain future investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting operational efficiency, but this is offset by the negative net income in 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also impacted by the negative earnings, highlighting challenges in cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	231.25B	230.94B	217.83B	255.98B	203.75B	142.34B
Gross Profit	4.18B	6.65B	10.78B	27.52B	12.38B	3.70B
EBITDA	8.15B	8.52B	15.32B	29.71B	12.62B	2.76B
Net Income	-2.04B	-1.63B	4.28B	17.32B	4.97B	-1.90B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	132.18B	130.46B	123.87B	132.58B	127.51B	118.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.68B	2.17B	1.93B	1.92B	3.24B	1.50B
Total Debt	41.72B	38.11B	32.24B	28.78B	34.64B	37.48B
Total Liabilities	99.39B	94.80B	85.63B	87.36B	90.59B	83.60B
Stockholders Equity	37.83B	40.67B	43.58B	49.41B	39.93B	37.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	474.59M	4.44B	6.55B	9.48B	5.24B	-905.00M
Operating Cash Flow	6.33B	10.05B	11.04B	13.66B	8.86B	2.66B
Investing Cash Flow	-12.98B	-11.72B	-3.56B	-1.72B	-541.00M	-2.71B
Financing Cash Flow	6.20B	2.14B	-7.49B	-13.20B	-6.52B	-320.00M

Glencore Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLNCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.66, above the 50-day MA of 11.01, and above the 200-day MA of 8.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.17 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.83 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GLNCY.

Glencore Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RIO	77 Outperform	$155.63B	14.63	18.18%	4.60%	-0.44%	-4.20%
VALE	75 Outperform	$69.71B	12.97	13.65%	10.04%	-8.49%	-41.69%
BHP	73 Outperform	$177.48B	19.86	19.51%	3.55%	-7.86%	14.17%
GLNCY	64 Neutral	$81.37B	-40.86	-5.21%	1.61%	3.04%	-300.82%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
NEXA	61 Neutral	$1.86B	-115.27	-1.64%	1.14%	7.92%	91.83%
GSM	55 Neutral	$914.47M	―	-16.00%	1.17%	-16.89%	-403.77%