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Glencore Plc (GLNCY)
OTHER OTC:GLNCY
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Glencore
(OTC:GLNCY)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(8.70% Upside)
Glencore's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with significant leverage and profitability challenges. The technical analysis shows moderate strength, while the valuation indicates caution due to a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provided a positive outlook with strong financial performance and shareholder returns, which slightly offsets the financial concerns.
Glencore (GLNCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$49.34B
Dividend Yield2.06%
Average Volume (3M)668.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth3.04%
EPS Growth-300.82%
CountryUS
Employees84,146
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding5,930,008,300
10 Day Avg. Volume504,380
30 Day Avg. Volume668,142
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.23
P/FCF Ratio11.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.64
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.10Price Target Upside9.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Glencore Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGlencore plc produces, refines, processes, stores, transports, and markets metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. It operates through two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities. The company produces and markets copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc, lead, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, alumina, aluminum, tin, and iron ore. It also engages in the oil exploration/production, distribution, storage, and bunkering activities; and offers coal, crude oil and oil products, refined products, and natural gas. In addition, the company markets and distributes physical commodities sourced from third party producers and its production to industrial consumers in the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries. Further, it provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities. The company was formerly known as Glencore Xstrata plc and changed its name to Glencore plc in May 2014. Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.
How the Company Makes MoneyGlencore generates revenue through a diversified model that includes the sale of physical commodities, trading and marketing services, and production from its mining operations. The company's key revenue streams come from its mining and production of metals and minerals, which include copper, zinc, and nickel, as well as energy products like thermal and metallurgical coal. Additionally, Glencore engages in the trading of agricultural products, benefiting from its extensive logistics network to optimize supply chain efficiency. Significant partnerships with other companies, joint ventures, and strategic investments in mining operations further enhance its earnings capabilities. The company's trading arm also capitalizes on market fluctuations, allowing it to profit from the buying and selling of commodities, thus contributing to its overall financial performance.
Glencore Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with strong financial performance and shareholder returns, countered by challenges in commodity pricing and operational factors in copper and cobalt segments.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Glencore reported an adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion for the first half of 2025, with an industrial asset business adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 billion, despite lower coal prices.
Zinc and Gold Business Performance
A strong result from the zinc and gold business, particularly in Kazakhstan, contributing significantly to the company's performance.
Marketing Business Success
The marketing segment reported a pleasing result with $1.4 billion in adjusted EBIT, driven by strong performance in metals, especially copper.
Shareholder Returns
Glencore announced $3.2 billion in shareholder returns, including base dividends and a share buyback program.
Cost Savings Initiative
A comprehensive review resulted in $1 billion of annualized cost savings across the business, to be achieved by end of 2026.
Negative Updates
Impact of Lower Coal Prices
Coal prices were down, with Newcastle prices dropping 21% and hard coking coal prices down 33%, impacting the industrial business EBITDA.
Operational Challenges in Copper Production
Copper production was heavily weighted towards the second half of the year, with operational factors impacting first-half performance.
Challenges in Cobalt Sales
The ban on cobalt sales in the DRC impacted earnings, with stockpiling affecting cash flow and cost structures.
Company Guidance
During the Glencore 2025 Half Year Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance indicating a strong financial performance despite challenging market conditions. Glencore reported an adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion for the first half of 2025, with $3.8 billion from its industrial asset business and $1.4 billion from its marketing business. The industrial segment faced challenges due to low coal prices, with coal prices dropping over 20% and hard coking coal prices down 33% year-on-year. However, the company saw strong results in its zinc gold business, particularly in Kazakhstan. Glencore also highlighted a temporary production imbalance with copper, expecting 60% of annual production in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the marketing segment achieved $1.4 billion in adjusted marketing EBIT, annualizing above the previous range of $2.2 billion to $3.2 billion, prompting an increase in the marketing EBIT range to $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion post-Viterra sale. Glencore reported cash generated by operating activities at $4.3 billion and announced $3.2 billion in shareholder returns, including dividends and buybacks. Additionally, the company is implementing approximately $1 billion in annualized cost savings following an organizational review.Glencore Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Glencore faces challenges in profitability and leverage. Revenue and profit margins are under pressure, with significant fluctuations, particularly in recent years. The balance sheet reflects high leverage, posing potential risks, yet the asset base remains strong. Cash flow generation is a concern due to declining free cash flow and negative net income. Strategic improvements in cost management and debt reduction are recommended to enhance financial health and stability.Income Statement
Glencore shows a mixed performance in its income statement. Gross profit margin has generally been low, with a significant decline in gross profit from 2022 to 2024, reflecting operational challenges. The net profit margin has been erratic, turning negative in 2024, highlighting profitability issues. Revenue showed a decline in 2024 relative to 2023, indicating potential challenges in sustaining sales growth. Despite these challenges, EBITDA margin has shown resilience in the past, although current EBIT is zero, reflecting operational cost pressures.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet demonstrates moderate stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk in volatile market conditions. Return on equity has been inconsistent, with recent negative net income impacting overall returns. However, equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure. The company's financial position is supported by a substantial asset base, although maintaining lower leverage would be beneficial.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns. The free cash flow has declined from 2023 to 2024, which may constrain future investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting operational efficiency, but this is offset by the negative net income in 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also impacted by the negative earnings, highlighting challenges in cash generation relative to net income.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 230.94B | 217.83B | 255.98B | 203.75B | 142.34B |
| Gross Profit | 6.65B | 10.78B | 27.26B | 12.38B | 3.70B |
| EBITDA | 8.52B | 15.32B | 34.47B | 12.62B | 2.76B |
| Net Income | -1.63B | 4.28B | 17.32B | 4.97B | -1.90B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 130.46B | 123.87B | 132.58B | 127.51B | 118.00B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.17B | 1.93B | 1.97B | 2.69B | 1.42B |
| Total Debt | 38.11B | 32.24B | 28.78B | 34.64B | 37.48B |
| Total Liabilities | 94.80B | 85.63B | 87.36B | 90.59B | 83.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 40.67B | 43.58B | 49.41B | 39.93B | 37.64B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.44B | 6.55B | 9.48B | 5.24B | -905.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.05B | 11.04B | 13.66B | 8.86B | 2.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.72B | -3.56B | -1.72B | -541.00M | -2.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.14B | -7.49B | -13.20B | -6.52B | -320.00M |
Glencore Technical Analysis
Positive
8.28
Price Trends
7.99
Positive
7.67
Positive
7.90
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Negative
60.96
Neutral
86.83
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLNCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.94, above the 50-day MA of 7.99, and above the 200-day MA of 7.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.83 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GLNCY.
Glencore Risk Analysis
Glencore disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Glencore reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Glencore Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | 46.51B | 9.04 | 17.53% | 7.39% | -12.89% | -46.86% | |
77 Outperform | 135.12B | 14.98 | 18.89% | 4.16% | -7.86% | 14.17% | |
75 Outperform | 106.75B | 9.92 | 20.91% | 6.01% | -0.44% | -4.20% | |
67 Neutral | $49.34B | ― | -5.21% | 2.06% | 3.04% | -300.82% | |
50 Neutral | 767.03M | -7.54 | -12.87% | 1.28% | -8.59% | -256.43% | |
48 Neutral | 674.11M | -7.15 | -10.19% | 2.06% | 8.66% | 66.06% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GLNCY
Glencore
8.28
-1.50
-15.34%
BHP
BHP Group
52.18
0.56
1.08%
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.21
0.05
1.20%
RIO
Rio Tinto
61.98
2.08
3.47%
VALE
Vale SA
10.84
1.17
12.10%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
4.90
-1.73
-26.09%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.