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Glencore Plc (GLNCY)
OTHER OTC:GLNCY
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Glencore
(OTC:GLNCY)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
â–²(2.91% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is held back mainly by fair-but-volatile fundamentals (thin 2025 profitability after a 2024 loss, rising leverage, softer recent free cash flow). Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is a key risk due to the very high P/E and modest yield. The latest earnings call was constructive with maintained guidance and continued shareholder returns, partially offsetting operational and commodity-cycle headwinds.
Positive Factors
Marketing franchise
A top-tier marketing/trading franchise produces fee-like, low-capex earnings and superior supply-chain access. Over 2–6 months this durability helps smooth mining cyclicality, capture arbitrage/tight concentrate spreads and sustain earnings even when some industrial assets underperform.
Copper growth pipeline
Material organic copper capacity expansion provides structural upside: scale reduces unit costs, improves margin durability and aligns with long-term electrification demand. Project optionality and permitting progress support multi-year production growth and lasting cash-generation potential beyond near-term cycles.
Strong EBITDA & capital returns
Large adjusted EBITDA and a history of disciplined capital returns demonstrate robust cash-generation capacity and shareholder-aligned allocation. Sustained EBITDA provides capacity to fund projects, distributions and targeted deleveraging, supporting financial flexibility across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Leverage has increased materially, reducing balance-sheet flexibility and raising refinancing and credit risks if commodity conditions weaken. Higher net debt constrains capacity to absorb shocks, fund growth opportunistically or accelerate buybacks without stronger, sustained free cash flow.
Cyclical earnings volatility
Earnings and margins swing sharply with commodity cycles, undermining predictable cash flow and capital planning. The shift from strong returns in 2021–22 to a 2024 loss and thin 2025 profit shows sensitivity to prices and volumes, complicating medium-term forecasting and investment decisions.
Working-capital & commodity exposure
Large working-capital swings tied to commodity prices create uneven free cash flow and can mask operating performance. This structurally increases cash volatility, complicates deleveraging and makes near-term liquidity and FCF planning dependent on unpredictable market moves rather than stable operating improvements.
Glencore (GLNCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$82.45B
Dividend Yield1.61%
Average Volume (3M)569.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)230.2
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth3.04%
EPS Growth-300.82%
CountryUS
Employees84,146
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding5,867,677,700
10 Day Avg. Volume454,314
30 Day Avg. Volume569,772
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.45
Price to Book (P/B)1.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio167.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.90Price Target Upside-8.45% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$253.60B
Glencore Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGlencore plc produces, refines, processes, stores, transports, and markets metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. It operates through two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities. The company produces and markets copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc, lead, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, alumina, aluminum, tin, and iron ore. It also engages in the oil exploration/production, distribution, storage, and bunkering activities; and offers coal, crude oil and oil products, refined products, and natural gas. In addition, the company markets and distributes physical commodities sourced from third party producers and its production to industrial consumers in the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries. Further, it provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities. The company was formerly known as Glencore Xstrata plc and changed its name to Glencore plc in May 2014. Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.
How the Company Makes MoneyGlencore generates revenue primarily through the sale and trading of commodities. The company operates a marketing division that acts as a trader and facilitator, purchasing commodities from producers and selling them to customers, which includes industrial users and other traders. Key revenue streams include the sale of metals such as copper and zinc, energy products like coal and oil, and agricultural commodities. Additionally, Glencore benefits from its operational activities in mining and production, where it earns revenue from the extraction and sale of raw materials. The company has established significant partnerships with various producers and customers globally, enhancing its trading capabilities. Factors contributing to Glencore's earnings include commodity price fluctuations, the global demand for resources, and its ability to manage logistics and supply chain efficiencies effectively.
Glencore Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive financial and operational story: a strong FY2025 adjusted EBITDA ($13.5bn), robust metals (particularly copper and zinc) performance, marketing strength, disciplined operational delivery with two consecutive years of meeting production guidance, important portfolio and permitting progress (Quechua, KCC land, MARA/Alumbrera, NewRange), and healthy capital returns and balance sheet metrics (dividend declared $2bn, ongoing buyback/distribution framework, and $27bn returned since 2021). Offsetting these positives were notable challenges: coal and energy segment weakness (negative ~$2.4bn variance), copper volume shortfalls driven by Collahuasi, temporary cobalt sales constraints, a significant one-off tax cash payment (~$1bn), impairments and care-and-maintenance costs, and working capital volatility tied to price moves. Management reiterated disciplined capital allocation, maintained CapEx guidance, and emphasized safety and execution. On balance, the highlights — both in magnitude (EBITDA, cash generation potential, project optionality) and strategic progress — outweigh the lowlights, which are largely either cyclical (commodity prices/volumes) or near-term/tactical (tax payment, impairments, working capital volatility).Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year EBITDA
Reported $13.5 billion adjusted EBITDA for FY2025; industrial adjusted EBITDA approximately $9.9–$10.0 billion and marketing adjusted EBIT $2.9 billion. Second half showed strong momentum vs H1 with half-on-half EBITDA up ~50%.
Robust Metals Performance (Copper & Zinc)
Copper and zinc were key drivers: copper had a very strong year (copper spot rose from ~$8,600 at the start of the year to ~$12,400 by year-end, ~44% spot increase year-to-date) and contributed materially to metals variance (~$1 billion contribution noted). Zinc contributed ~$0.8 billion to the metals uplift (zinc price noted rising from ~$3,000 to ~$3,300, ~10% increase).
Marketing Franchise Resilience
Marketing delivered $2.9 billion adjusted marketing EBIT, inside the new guidance range and materially higher like-for-like versus prior Viterra-adjusted reporting; trading strength driven by metal arbitrage and tight concentrate markets particularly in H2.
Operational Delivery and Reliability
Delivered production guidance across key commodities for the second consecutive year; management highlighted significantly improved operational execution and discipline with production momentum into 2026.
Portfolio Progress — Peru & DRC Unlocks
Acquired adjacent Quechua package near Antapaccay (adds significant optionality and extension potential); secured land package for KCC in the DRC enabling expansion to ~300,000 tpa copper and life extended into the 2040s; signed a non-binding MOU with U.S.-backed Orion/CMC to potentially realize value (~$9 billion EV cited for KCC + MUMI combined).
Argentina & North America Project Advancements
Progress on MARA and Pachon RIGI approvals (MARA expected in H1); Alumbrera restart work underway with first production targeted in 2028; NewRange (with Teck/AngloTeck) resource expanded by ~1 billion tonnes and 20–21 of 23 permits for phase 1 secured — project described as lower capital intensity and quicker to market versus peers.
Balance Sheet, Cash Returns and Liquidity
Declared $2.0 billion dividend; returned over $27 billion to shareholders since 2021. Net funding/debt levels moved back toward the ~$10 billion target; spot illustrative free cash flow generation and EBITDA showed strong upside (spot illustrative EBITDA cited above $18 billion and spot illustrative free cash flow around $7 billion).
Monetizations and Portfolio Simplification
Partial sale of Century Aluminum stake to recycle capital into higher IRR (targeting ~20%+ IRRs), sale of Pasar smelter and an underutilized Colombian port, and a disciplined approach to non-core capital allocation and potential monetization of Bunge stake as a surplus capital warehouse (~$4 billion mark-to-market value cited).
CapEx Discipline & Guidance Maintained
FY2025 net cash CapEx ~$6.9 billion with EVR and Kazzinc items noted; reiterated FY2026–2028 CapEx guidance (average ~ $6.5 billion p.a.) consistent with prior CMD and with clear project phasing for copper growth projects.
Safety & Long-Term Commitment
Company emphasized safety as top priority and noted trend improvement over time; management reiterated focus on operational excellence, organic growth, and shareholder value creation.
Negative Updates
Coal & Energy Segment Weakness
Energy and steelmaking coal produced weaker results in FY2025 with a large negative price/market variance year-on-year for coal (~negative $2.4 billion). Although H2 and early 2026 prices improved, coal acted as a significant drag for the period.
Copper Volume Shortfall (Collahuasi Impact)
Copper volume variance was negative (~$0.9 billion), with overall copper production down ~11% year-on-year. Collahuasi production fell by ~68,000 tonnes (from ~246,000 t to ~178,000 t), a ~28% decline at that operation, weighing on near-term volumes and earnings.
Cobalt Sales Constraints
Inability to sell much cobalt during the year delayed earnings and cash generation from that metal, reducing near-term contribution despite supportive cobalt pricing longer term.
Significant Tax Cash Outflow
A sizeable cash tax payment (~$1 billion) to HMRC for historical assessments impacted funds from operations; company expects a portion to be recoverable but near-term cash was affected.
Asset Impairments and Carry Costs
Impairments on certain custom smelting businesses (Horne and CCR) were taken (~$100 million each) and care-and-maintenance costs (e.g., ferroalloys smelters) and related employee costs weighed on expense lines.
Working Capital Volatility
FY2025 benefited from a working capital 'sugar hit' (Q4 price moves led to a $1.6 billion reversal vs H1 outflow), but management expects some of this to unwind in 2026 — highlighting short-term volatility tied to commodity price moves and RMI exposure.
Fatalities Despite Improvement
There were two fatalities during FY2025. Management emphasized this as two too many even as they noted the fatality frequency rate was the lowest on record and below the ICMM average.
Missed Strategic Transaction Opportunity
Planned large-scale strategic transaction (reported market speculation of a major tie-up) did not complete due to value disagreements; management noted it was not necessary for the firm's strategy but the non-deal represents a missed consolidation opportunity that some investors had anticipated.
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: management kept 2026 operational guidance unchanged after meeting production targets for a second consecutive year, reiterated a pro‑forma net debt target of ~$10bn and declared a $2bn shareholder distribution (part of $27bn returned since 2021); CapEx net was $6.9bn in 2025 and CMD guidance remains ~ $6.5bn p.a. on average for 2026–28 (with EVR averaging ~ $1.3bn p.a. over 2026–28 and Alumbrera restart ~$200–300m); spot‑illustrative outcomes shown included group EBITDA ~$18.1bn and free cash flow ~$7bn, industrial EBITDA ~$14.6bn (2025 industrial ~$9.9bn; group adjusted EBITDA $13.5bn), marketing EBIT ~$2.9bn, and a copper unit cash cost profile around $1.85/lb in 2026 (asset level ~$1.56/lb; 2024 ~$1.74/lb, 2025 ~ $1.99/lb) falling to ~$1.18–$1.08/lb by 2028–29 as copper production scales to ~1.0Mtpa by 2028 and to ~1.6Mtpa (with >2Mtpa optionality by 2035); key macro assumptions noted included copper avg moving from ~$8,600 to ~$12,400 (≈+44%), zinc ~$3,000→$3,300, gold ~$4,200→$4,900, Newcastle thermal coal >$120/t and spot steelmaking coal spikes to ~$250/t (forwards ~ $220s).Glencore Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue is stable-to-improving, but profitability is highly cyclical (loss in 2024, only thin profit in 2025). Leverage has risen (debt-to-equity ~0.58 in 2022 to ~1.10 in 2025) and free cash flow cooled meaningfully in 2025, reducing financial flexibility.Income Statement
Revenue has recovered from the 2020 downturn and is up modestly over the last two years (2024 and 2025 annual growth in the mid-single digits), but profitability is very volatile. After strong earnings and healthy margins in 2021–2022, results weakened materially in 2023, turned to a loss in 2024, and only partially rebounded in 2025 with very thin net profit. Overall, the top line is stable-to-improving, but earnings quality and margins look highly cyclical.56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is adequate but trending weaker. Leverage increased over time, with debt-to-equity rising from ~0.58 (2022) to ~1.10 (2025), while equity declined from its 2022 level. Returns on equity also swung sharply—from very strong in 2022 to negative in 2024 and near break-even in 2025—highlighting sensitivity to the commodity cycle. Asset base is sizable and fairly stable, but rising leverage reduces flexibility if conditions soften again.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive but inconsistent. Operating cash flow remained positive across 2021–2025, yet free cash flow dropped sharply in 2025 versus prior years and has been negative at cycle lows (2020). Cash conversion also looks weaker recently: 2025 free cash flow is small relative to net income, and operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of total debt, suggesting more limited capacity to de-lever quickly without a stronger commodity backdrop.52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 248.82B | 230.94B | 217.83B | 255.98B | 203.75B |
| Gross Profit | 5.40B | 6.65B | 10.78B | 27.52B | 12.38B |
| EBITDA | 10.36B | 8.52B | 15.32B | 29.71B | 12.62B |
| Net Income | 364.86M | -1.63B | 4.28B | 17.32B | 4.97B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 142.20B | 130.46B | 123.87B | 132.58B | 127.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.95B | 2.17B | 1.93B | 1.92B | 3.24B |
| Total Debt | 42.74B | 38.11B | 32.24B | 28.78B | 34.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 108.59B | 94.80B | 85.63B | 87.36B | 90.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 38.86B | 40.67B | 43.58B | 49.41B | 39.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 388.98M | 4.44B | 6.55B | 9.48B | 5.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.35B | 10.05B | 11.04B | 13.66B | 8.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.87B | -11.72B | -3.56B | -1.72B | -541.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -985.02M | 2.14B | -7.49B | -13.20B | -6.52B |
Glencore Technical Analysis
Positive
14.09
Price Trends
12.72
Positive
11.10
Positive
9.52
Positive
Market Momentum
0.42
Negative
63.58
Neutral
89.87
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLNCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.72, above the 50-day MA of 12.72, and above the 200-day MA of 9.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.87 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GLNCY.
Glencore Risk Analysis
Glencore disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Glencore reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Glencore Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $206.59B | 19.39 | 21.38% | 3.55% | -7.86% | 14.17% | |
69 Neutral | $162.42B | 15.50 | 17.00% | 4.60% | -0.44% | -4.20% | |
68 Neutral | $68.31B | 27.57 | 6.88% | 10.04% | -8.49% | -41.69% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $1.68B | -103.27 | -1.64% | 1.14% | 7.92% | 91.83% | |
59 Neutral | $82.45B | 230.23 | 0.89% | 1.61% | 3.04% | -300.82% | |
50 Neutral | $935.00M | -5.51 | -24.17% | 1.17% | -16.89% | -403.77% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GLNCY
Glencore
14.09
6.26
79.90%
BHP
BHP Group
78.33
31.10
65.83%
GSM
Ferroglobe
5.01
1.76
54.15%
RIO
Rio Tinto
95.31
36.71
62.63%
VALE
Vale SA
15.97
7.61
91.10%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
12.65
7.65
153.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.