Glencore (GLNCY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $47.02B
• Dividend Yield: 2.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 844.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 6.24%
• EPS Growth: -139.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 84,146
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 5,967,356,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 665,910
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 844,498
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.65
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.55
• 1Y Price Target: $10.20
• Price Target Upside: 29.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▲(1.52%Upside)

Glencore's overall stock score reflects significant challenges in financial performance and valuation, with profitability and high leverage as key concerns. The technical analysis provides a slightly positive short-term outlook. Despite a strong performance in specific segments like metals, the overall earnings call sentiment was mixed, impacting the overall score.

Glencore Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Glencore plc produces, refines, processes, stores, transports, and markets metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. It operates through two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities. The company produces and markets copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc, lead, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, alumina, aluminum, tin, and iron ore. It also engages in the oil exploration/production, distribution, storage, and bunkering activities; and offers coal, crude oil and oil products, refined products, and natural gas. In addition, the company markets and distributes physical commodities sourced from third party producers and its production to industrial consumers in the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries. Further, it provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities. The company was formerly known as Glencore Xstrata plc and changed its name to Glencore plc in May 2014. Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

Glencore makes money primarily through its diversified operations in commodity trading and industrial activities. The company's revenue streams are mainly derived from the production and sale of metals and minerals, energy products, and agricultural commodities. In the metals and minerals sector, Glencore extracts and processes resources like copper, zinc, nickel, and coal, which are sold to industrial clients across various sectors, including construction, electronics, and automotive. In the energy products sector, Glencore's revenue comes from the extraction, refinement, and trading of oil and coal products. Additionally, the company is engaged in agricultural trading, dealing in grains, oils, and sugar. Significant partnerships with mining companies, oil producers, and logistics firms enhance Glencore's ability to efficiently supply and deliver commodities globally, thereby contributing to its earnings.

Glencore Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Glencore faces challenges in profitability and leverage. Revenue and profit margins are under pressure, with significant fluctuations, particularly in recent years. The balance sheet reflects high leverage, posing potential risks, yet the asset base remains strong. Cash flow generation is a concern due to declining free cash flow and negative net income. Strategic improvements in cost management and debt reduction are recommended to enhance financial health and stability.

Income Statement

Glencore shows a mixed performance in its income statement. Gross profit margin has generally been low, with a significant decline in gross profit from 2022 to 2024, reflecting operational challenges. The net profit margin has been erratic, turning negative in 2024, highlighting profitability issues. Revenue showed a decline in 2024 relative to 2023, indicating potential challenges in sustaining sales growth. Despite these challenges, EBITDA margin has shown resilience in the past, although current EBIT is zero, reflecting operational cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet demonstrates moderate stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk in volatile market conditions. Return on equity has been inconsistent, with recent negative net income impacting overall returns. However, equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure. The company's financial position is supported by a substantial asset base, although maintaining lower leverage would be beneficial.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns. The free cash flow has declined from 2023 to 2024, which may constrain future investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting operational efficiency, but this is offset by the negative net income in 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also impacted by the negative earnings, highlighting challenges in cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
230.94B	217.83B	255.98B	203.75B	142.34B
	Gross Profit
6.65B	10.78B	27.26B	12.38B	3.70B
	EBIT
4.44B	8.70B	27.48B	12.92B	2.41B
	EBITDA
8.52B	15.32B	34.47B	12.62B	2.76B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-1.63B	4.28B	17.32B	4.97B	-1.90B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.17B	1.93B	1.97B	2.69B	1.42B
	Total Assets
130.46B	123.87B	132.58B	127.51B	118.00B
	Total Debt
38.11B	32.24B	28.78B	34.64B	37.48B
	Net Debt
35.94B	30.57B	26.93B	31.95B	36.06B
	Total Liabilities
94.80B	85.63B	87.36B	90.59B	83.60B
	Stockholders Equity
40.67B	43.58B	49.41B	39.93B	37.64B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
4.44B	6.55B	9.48B	5.24B	-905.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
10.05B	11.04B	13.66B	8.86B	2.66B
	Investing Cash Flow
-11.72B	-3.56B	-1.72B	-541.00M	-2.71B
	Financing Cash Flow
2.14B	-7.49B	-13.20B	-6.52B	-320.00M

Glencore Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLNCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.52, above the 50-day MA of 7.04, and below the 200-day MA of 8.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GLNCY.

Glencore Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RIO	77 Outperform	$98.46B	8.15	20.93%	7.76%	-0.81%	14.59%
VALE	73 Outperform	$40.14B	6.96	15.98%	7.89%	-9.59%	-25.35%
BHP	72 Outperform	$123.13B	10.84	26.13%	4.06%	-3.15%	54.08%
GLNCY	63 Neutral	$47.02B	―	-3.85%	2.16%	6.24%	-139.16%
NEXA	56 Neutral	$655.57M	―	-16.64%	2.05%	12.30%	42.72%
MP	54 Neutral	$4.99B	―	-9.62%	―	4.63%	-3189.81%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.03B	-1.27	-21.09%	3.98%	2.91%	-30.50%