Guess? (GES) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $880.71M
• Dividend Yield: 6.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 168.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: 7.84%
• EPS Growth: -81.20%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 81
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 52,082,462
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 914,758
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,220,636
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.41
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.69
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.61
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.58
• 1Y Price Target: $16.75
• Price Target Upside: -0.89% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.00 ▲(6.51% Upside)

Guess? receives a moderate score due to a mix of stable financial performance and strong corporate events. The bullish technical indicators and positive earnings call sentiment are offset by valuation concerns and profitability challenges. The merger agreement provides a significant upside potential, making it an attractive option for investors considering the premium offered.

Guess? Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guess?, Inc. is a renowned American fashion brand known for its trendy apparel, accessories, and footwear, primarily targeting the youthful demographic. Founded in 1981, the company operates in the apparel and accessories sector, offering a diverse range of products, including denim, dresses, footwear, and handbags, as well as a selection of fragrances and watches. Guess? has established a global presence with retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and a strong brand identity that emphasizes a lifestyle approach to fashion.

How the Company Makes Money

Guess? generates revenue through multiple channels, including wholesale distribution to department stores and specialty retailers, direct-to-consumer sales via its own retail stores, and e-commerce platforms. The company benefits from brand recognition and loyalty, allowing it to command premium pricing for its products. Key revenue streams include sales of apparel and accessories, with denim being a significant category. Additionally, Guess? engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations, which can enhance brand visibility and drive sales. Seasonal promotions and marketing campaigns also play a crucial role in attracting customers and boosting revenue.

Guess? Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Guess? shows promising revenue growth and robust gross margins, indicating strength in sales and cost management. However, profitability metrics reveal challenges in converting revenue growth to net income, with thin net profit margins and low ROE. The balance sheet indicates potential risks from high leverage, while cash flow analysis highlights challenges with free cash flow management.

Income Statement

Guess? has demonstrated a healthy revenue growth trajectory, with a TTM revenue of approximately $3.05 billion, reflecting consistent growth from previous years. The gross profit margin stands strong at approximately 42.97% for the TTM, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is thin at 0.47%, which indicates challenges in translating revenue growth into higher net profits. EBIT and EBITDA margins, at 5.26% and 4.35% respectively, suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 3.3, pointing to a significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio stands at 16.89%, indicating a relatively small equity base compared to total assets. Return on equity (ROE) is low at 3.0%, reflecting limited profitability relative to shareholder's equity. These metrics suggest potential risks related to leverage, although the company maintains a stable asset base.

Cash Flow

Guess? faces challenges in cash flow management, highlighted by negative free cash flow in the TTM. The free cash flow growth rate has declined due to increased capital expenditures. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 4.92, indicating effective cash conversion from net income but overshadowed by negative free cash flow. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests cash flow pressures impacting financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.09B	3.00B	2.78B	2.69B	2.59B	1.88B
Gross Profit	1.32B	1.30B	1.22B	1.15B	1.17B	697.10M
EBITDA	127.80M	178.52M	318.65M	316.39M	364.37M	-890.00K
Net Income	31.32M	60.42M	198.20M	149.61M	171.36M	-80.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.98B	2.77B	2.59B	2.43B	2.56B	2.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	189.63M	187.70M	360.29M	275.76M	415.56M	469.11M
Total Debt	1.61B	1.42B	1.16B	1.13B	1.15B	1.25B
Total Liabilities	2.44B	2.22B	1.85B	1.84B	1.89B	1.90B
Stockholders Equity	1.59B	505.01M	684.94M	534.11M	622.66M	543.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	56.83M	35.59M	256.17M	79.69M	68.12M	190.17M
Operating Cash Flow	101.44M	121.68M	330.38M	169.19M	131.64M	209.05M
Investing Cash Flow	-98.57M	-113.16M	-75.14M	-89.87M	-62.28M	-22.16M
Financing Cash Flow	-31.90M	-165.50M	-168.84M	-217.19M	-97.04M	-9.91M

Guess? Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.82, above the 50-day MA of 14.19, and above the 200-day MA of 12.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 74.20 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GES.

Guess? Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BKE	81 Outperform	$3.03B	14.85	43.13%	6.61%	1.62%	-2.57%
URBN	77 Outperform	$6.34B	14.28	19.72%	―	9.63%	56.06%
GAP	75 Outperform	$8.83B	10.23	28.07%	2.61%	-0.05%	15.17%
AEO	75 Outperform	$3.17B	17.67	12.17%	2.78%	-2.73%	-16.71%
CRI	68 Neutral	$1.05B	7.68	15.95%	7.26%	-1.46%	-41.93%
GES	66 Neutral	$880.71M	168.59	6.23%	6.66%	7.84%	-81.20%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.02B	12.77	-0.74%	3.01%	1.30%	-13.03%

Guess? Corporate Events

Guess? Announces Merger Agreement with Authentic Brands

On August 20, 2025, Guess?, Inc. announced an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Authentic Brands Group LLC to take the company private. Under this agreement, Authentic will acquire 51% of Guess?’s intellectual property, while the Rolling Stockholders, including Maurice Marciano, Paul Marciano, and Carlos Alberini, will own 49%. Guess? shareholders will receive $16.75 per share in cash, representing a 73% premium over the stock’s previous closing price. The transaction values Guess? at approximately $1.4 billion and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. Current management will continue to run the business, and the company’s common stock will no longer be publicly listed. This strategic partnership aims to enhance Guess?’s global reach and operational flexibility, leveraging Authentic’s expertise in brand management.

Guess? Holds Virtual Annual Shareholders Meeting

On June 10, 2025, Guess?, Inc. conducted its annual shareholders meeting virtually, where a quorum was present with 46,923,773 shares represented. The shareholders voted to elect seven directors, approve executive compensation, and ratify Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026. All director nominees were elected, the executive compensation was approved, and the auditor’s appointment was ratified, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s governance and financial oversight.