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Guess?, Inc. (GES)
:GES

Guess? (GES) AI Stock Analysis

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GE

Guess?

(NYSE:GES)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(7.86%Upside)
Guess? demonstrates strong revenue growth and positive technical momentum, but faces challenges with profitability and cash flow management. The high dividend yield offers some valuation support, while the mixed sentiment from the earnings call reflects both opportunities and risks. The stock's overall score reflects these strengths and weaknesses, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and addressing regional challenges.

Guess? (GES) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Guess? Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGuess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women, and children. It operates through five segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia, and Licensing. The company's clothing collection includes jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, activewear, knitwear, and intimate apparel. It also grants licenses to design, manufacture, and distribute various products that complement its apparel lines, such as eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids' and infants' apparel, outerwear, fragrance, jewelry, and other fashion accessories, as well as to wholesale partners to operate and sell products through licensed retail stores. The company markets its products under the GUESS, GUESS?, GUESS U.S.A., GUESS Jeans, GUESS? and Triangle Design, MARCIANO, Question Mark and Triangle Design, a stylized G and a stylized M, GUESS Kids, Baby GUESS, YES, G by GUESS, GUESS by MARCIANO, and Gc brand names. It sells its products through direct-to-consumer, wholesale, and licensing distribution channels. As of January 29, 2022, the company directly operated 1,068 retail stores in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its partner's distributors operated an additional 563 retail stores worldwide. The company also offers its products through its retail websites. Guess?, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyGuess? Inc. generates revenue through various channels, primarily focusing on retail sales, wholesale distribution, and licensing agreements. Retail sales are derived from company-operated stores and e-commerce platforms where consumers purchase fashion products directly. Wholesale revenue comes from selling products to various department stores, specialty retailers, and international distributors. Additionally, Guess? leverages its brand by entering into licensing agreements, allowing third parties to produce and sell products under the Guess? brand, which generates royalties and enhances brand presence. The company's strategic partnerships and global expansion efforts further contribute to its earnings, allowing it to tap into diverse markets and consumer segments worldwide.

Guess? Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Shows revenue distribution across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Chart InsightsGuess? has shown a notable recovery in product sales post-pandemic, with recent quarters indicating a steady upward trend. The latest earnings call highlights the positive impact of the rag & bone acquisition, contributing significantly to revenue growth. However, challenges persist, particularly in Asia with a significant revenue decline, and pressure on gross margins. The European wholesale segment is a bright spot, driving growth, while the Americas retail segment struggles with declining comps. Overall, the company anticipates moderate revenue growth, but strategic adjustments are crucial to address regional weaknesses.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Guess? Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 05, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: 21.20%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative developments. While the company showed strong revenue growth, particularly in the wholesale segments and with the acquisition of rag & bone, there were significant challenges including declines in Asia and licensing revenues, as well as a decrease in gross margin. The sentiment is mixed with slight positive trends in certain areas, but significant issues remain.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Overall Revenue Growth
Total company revenues increased by 9% in U.S. dollars to $648 million, with a constant currency increase of 12%. The acquisition of rag & bone contributed 9 percentage points to constant currency growth.
European Wholesale Success
The European wholesale business posted a mid-teen growth rate driven by reliable product deliveries despite supply chain challenges.
Americas Wholesale Performance
Americas Wholesale revenues increased by 63% in U.S. dollars, driven by the addition of rag & bone and higher Guess shipments in the U.S. and Mexico.
Rag & Bone Outperformance
Rag & bone significantly outperformed expectations with strong wholesale shipments and growth in retail stores and online. The business is expected to reach over $320 million in sales, up from $250 million before acquisition.
Loyalty Program Success
In Europe, the new customer loyalty program led to a 36% increase in revenues from loyalty customers in Italy and Poland.
Negative Updates
Asia Revenue Decline
Asia revenues decreased by over 20%, with significant weakness in the Greater China market. The company is seeking a partner to take over the business in this region.
Licensing Revenue Challenges
Licensing segment revenues declined by 14%, with declines in fragrances and footwear, although handbags showed growth.
Americas Retail Comps Decline
Comps for U.S. and Canadian stores declined by 10% in constant currency, with a total decline of 11% including e-commerce.
Gross Margin Pressure
Total company gross margin fell by 200 basis points to 39.9%, driven by business mix changes and lower royalty income.
Adjusted Operating Loss
The company reported an adjusted operating loss of $26 million and an adjusted operating loss margin of 4%.
Company Guidance
During the Guess? First Quarter Fiscal 2026 earnings call, the company provided optimistic guidance, citing a 9% increase in revenue despite a 2.5-point currency headwind. This growth was propelled by the acquisition of rag & bone, which contributed 9 percentage points to the top line growth in constant currency, and a 3-point contribution from the core Guess business. The European wholesale segment emerged as the largest growth driver with a mid-teen increase, whereas the retail segment in Europe faced a 4% decline in constant currency comps. In the Americas, the wholesale business surpassed expectations with double-digit growth, while the retail segment saw a net 10% constant currency comp sales decline, albeit with improved conversion rates. The Asian market continued to struggle, particularly in Greater China, resulting in a revenue decline of over 20%. Adjusted operating loss stood at $26 million with a margin of -4%, showing improvement over initial expectations. For the full fiscal year, Guess? anticipates revenue growth between 5.5% and 7.4%, with an adjusted operating margin of 4.4% to 5.1%, and EPS ranging from $1.32 to $1.64.

Guess? Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Guess? displays strong revenue growth and robust gross margins, indicating strong sales and cost management. However, profitability challenges persist with thin net profit margins and low ROE. The balance sheet shows risks from high leverage, and cash flow analysis highlights difficulties with free cash flow management.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Guess? has demonstrated a healthy revenue growth trajectory, with a TTM revenue of approximately $3.05 billion, reflecting consistent growth from previous years. The gross profit margin stands strong at approximately 42.97% for the TTM, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is thin at 0.47%, which indicates challenges in translating revenue growth into higher net profits. EBIT and EBITDA margins, at 5.26% and 4.35% respectively, suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 3.3, pointing to a significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio stands at 16.89%, indicating a relatively small equity base compared to total assets. Return on equity (ROE) is low at 3.0%, reflecting limited profitability relative to shareholder's equity. These metrics suggest potential risks related to leverage, although the company maintains a stable asset base.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Guess? faces challenges in cash flow management, highlighted by negative free cash flow in the TTM. The free cash flow growth rate has declined due to increased capital expenditures. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 4.92, indicating effective cash conversion from net income but overshadowed by negative free cash flow. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests cash flow pressures impacting financial flexibility.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.05B3.00B2.78B2.69B2.59B1.88B
Gross Profit1.31B1.30B1.22B1.15B1.17B697.10M
EBITDA132.75M178.52M318.65M316.39M364.37M-890.00K
Net Income14.47M60.42M198.20M149.61M171.36M-80.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.86B2.77B2.59B2.43B2.56B2.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments151.19M187.70M360.29M275.76M415.56M469.11M
Total Debt1.59B1.42B1.16B1.13B1.15B1.25B
Total Liabilities2.33B2.22B1.85B1.84B1.89B1.90B
Stockholders Equity483.57M505.01M684.94M534.11M622.66M543.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-15.71M35.59M256.17M79.69M68.12M190.17M
Operating Cash Flow71.19M121.68M330.38M169.19M131.64M209.05M
Investing Cash Flow-57.71M-113.16M-75.14M-89.87M-62.28M-22.16M
Financing Cash Flow-97.23M-165.50M-168.84M-217.19M-97.04M-9.91M

Guess? Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price12.98
Price Trends
50DMA
11.37
Positive
100DMA
10.87
Positive
200DMA
13.05
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.41
Negative
RSI
68.62
Neutral
STOCH
88.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.91, above the 50-day MA of 11.37, and below the 200-day MA of 13.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GES.

Guess? Risk Analysis

Guess? disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Guess? reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Guess? Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$6.59B15.4219.55%8.38%52.18%
BKBKE
78
Outperform
$2.44B12.2744.55%2.94%-1.08%-8.20%
GAGAP
71
Outperform
$8.48B9.9029.16%2.92%1.07%28.03%
AEAEO
69
Neutral
$1.78B10.5212.19%4.85%-0.95%-10.51%
GEGES
68
Neutral
$675.17M14.292.61%9.27%9.02%-93.19%
CRCRI
67
Neutral
$1.15B6.9718.91%3.11%-3.39%-28.96%
56
Neutral
$3.37B4.05-1.30%6.64%0.16%-63.79%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GES
Guess?
12.98
-6.21
-32.36%
AEO
American Eagle
10.28
-8.93
-46.49%
BKE
Buckle
47.66
14.26
42.69%
CRI
Carter's
31.49
-27.89
-46.97%
GAP
Gap Inc
22.72
-0.04
-0.18%
URBN
Urban Outfitters
73.57
29.91
68.51%

Guess? Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings
Guess? Holds Virtual Annual Shareholders Meeting
Positive
Jun 11, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Guess?, Inc. conducted its annual shareholders meeting virtually, where a quorum was present with 46,923,773 shares represented. The shareholders voted to elect seven directors, approve executive compensation, and ratify Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026. All director nominees were elected, the executive compensation was approved, and the auditor’s appointment was ratified, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s governance and financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (GES) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guess? stock, see the GES Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025