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Guess?, Inc. (GES)
NYSE:GES

Guess? (GES) AI Stock Analysis

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GES

Guess?

(NYSE:GES)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(12.29% Upside)
Guess? demonstrates strong financial performance with robust cash flow and a healthy balance sheet, although profitability remains a challenge. The stock's valuation is attractive, offering a high dividend yield. The recent merger approval with Authentic Brands Group is a significant positive event, enhancing future growth prospects. Technical indicators suggest a neutral outlook, with no strong momentum in either direction.

Guess? (GES) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Guess? Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGuess?, Inc. is a global lifestyle brand known for its trendy apparel, accessories, and footwear. Founded in 1981, the company operates in the fashion retail sector, offering a wide range of products including denim, casual wear, and formal attire for men, women, and children. With a strong emphasis on innovative designs and branding, Guess? has established a significant presence in various international markets through its retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and wholesale distribution.
How the Company Makes MoneyGuess? generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products across multiple channels. Key revenue streams include direct sales from its retail stores and e-commerce websites, as well as wholesale distribution to department stores and specialty retailers. The company also profits from licensing agreements that allow third parties to produce and sell Guess? branded products, expanding its reach without incurring substantial manufacturing costs. Seasonal promotions, collaborations, and a strong brand image further contribute to driving sales and enhancing customer loyalty.

Guess? Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 05, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a generally positive outlook with strong revenue growth driven by the acquisition of rag & bone and robust performance in European and Americas wholesale businesses. However, challenges persist in licensing revenue, Asian market performance, and European retail stores. Improvements in retail productivity and strategic initiatives offer potential growth opportunities.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth Exceeds Expectations
Total company revenues increased by 9% in U.S. dollars and 12% in constant currency, driven by the acquisition of rag & bone and solid performance in European and Americas wholesale businesses.
Successful Integration of Rag & Bone
Rag & bone significantly outperformed expectations with strong wholesale shipments, contributing 9 percentage points to top line constant currency growth.
European Wholesale Business Growth
The European wholesale business posted a mid-teen growth rate, the largest contributor to overall growth, driven by reliable product deliveries.
Improvement in Americas Retail Performance
Americas Retail performance improved, exceeding expectations with a focus on women's apparel, pricing adjustments, and improved conversion rates.
Expansion and New Initiatives
Introduction of a customer loyalty program in Europe led to a 36% revenue increase among loyalty customers. Plans to roll out to additional countries are underway.
Negative Updates
Decline in Licensing Revenue
Licensing revenue declined, primarily due to decreases in royalties from fragrances and footwear, while handbags showed growth.
Challenges in the Asian Market
Revenues in Asia declined by over 20%, with significant weakness in the Greater China market leading to store closures and reduced operations.
European Retail Store Performance
European retail stores posted a constant currency comp decrease of 4%, due to a decline in store traffic.
Gross Margin Decline
Total company gross margin decreased by 200 basis points to 39.9%, affected by lower royalty income and increased promotional activity.
Company Guidance
During the Guess? First Quarter Fiscal 2026 earnings call, the company reported operating results that surpassed expectations across several key financial metrics. The company achieved a 9% growth in U.S. dollar terms, despite a 2.5-point currency headwind. A significant portion of this growth was driven by the acquisition of rag & bone, contributing 9 percentage points to the top line constant currency growth. The core Guess business also added approximately 3 points of constant currency growth, attributed mainly to increased shipments in the European and Americas wholesale operations. In Europe, the wholesale business experienced a mid-teen growth rate, making it the largest contributor to the company's growth. However, the company's licensing revenue experienced a decline, presenting a modest headwind. The company reported a gross margin of 39.9%, which was 200 basis points lower than the previous year, and an adjusted operating loss of $26 million, with an adjusted operating loss margin of 4%. The fiscal year 2026 outlook projects revenue growth between 5.5% and 7.4%, with adjusted operating margins ranging from 4.4% to 5.1%, and adjusted EPS between $1.32 and $1.64.

Guess? Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Guess? Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price16.92
Price Trends
50DMA
16.74
Positive
100DMA
16.15
Positive
200DMA
13.59
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Positive
RSI
49.27
Neutral
STOCH
13.74
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GES, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.79, above the 50-day MA of 16.74, and above the 200-day MA of 13.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.74 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GES.

Guess? Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$5.72B11.8740.72%7.57%1.75%
78
Outperform
$7.19B14.6019.34%11.09%51.51%
77
Outperform
$4.61B22.9612.36%2.09%-1.15%-0.98%
76
Outperform
$10.10B11.8125.10%2.38%0.29%3.65%
72
Outperform
$873.54M15.9716.57%6.28%6.44%-9.23%
72
Outperform
$2.84B13.3241.26%6.82%4.67%3.46%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GES
Guess?
16.73
3.53
26.74%
ANF
Abercrombie Fitch
123.81
-28.26
-18.58%
AEO
American Eagle
26.60
10.74
67.72%
BKE
Buckle
54.25
6.96
14.72%
GAP
Gap Inc
26.37
3.07
13.18%
URBN
Urban Outfitters
77.24
22.69
41.59%

Guess? Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Guess? Stockholders Approve Merger with Authentic Brands
Positive
Nov 25, 2025

On November 21, 2025, Guess?, Inc. held a special meeting where stockholders approved a merger agreement with Authentic Brands Group LLC, leading to the company becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary and ceasing to be publicly traded. The third quarter of fiscal 2026 saw Guess? report a 7% increase in revenue to $791 million, with notable growth in the Americas Wholesale and Europe segments, despite challenges in the Americas Retail and Asia segments. The company also announced a strategic partnership with Authentic Brands Group, resulting in a take-private transaction expected to close in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.

Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsLegal Proceedings
Guess? Merger with Authentic Brands Gets Antitrust Clearance
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

On August 20, 2025, Guess?, Inc. announced a merger agreement with Authentic Brands Group LLC, which will result in Guess becoming a privately held company. The merger has faced legal challenges, including complaints from shareholders alleging insufficient disclosure of financial information. Despite these challenges, the merger received antitrust clearance from the Republic of Cyprus on November 11, 2025.

Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Guess? Awaits Final Approvals for Merger
Neutral
Oct 31, 2025

On August 20, 2025, Guess?, Inc. entered into a Merger Agreement with Authentic Brands Group LLC and other entities, planning to transition into a privately held company. As of October 27, 2025, the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust waiting period expired, but the merger’s completion is still pending regulatory approvals, stockholder approval, and other customary conditions.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025