Guess? (GES) AI Stock Analysis

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Guess?

(NYSE:GES)

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:

$14.00

▲(2.64%Upside)

Guess? demonstrates strong revenue growth and positive technical momentum, but faces challenges with profitability and cash flow management. The high dividend yield offers some valuation support, while the mixed sentiment from the earnings call reflects both opportunities and risks. The stock's overall score reflects these strengths and weaknesses, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and addressing regional challenges.

Guess? (GES) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$709.51M

Dividend Yield8.8%

Average Volume (3M)659.93K

Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3

Beta (1Y)1.00

Revenue Growth9.02%

EPS Growth-93.19%

CountryUS

Employees13,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength64

IndustryApparel - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.44

Shares Outstanding52,016,518

10 Day Avg. Volume585,267

30 Day Avg. Volume659,930

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.55

Price to Book (P/B)1.32

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-41.24

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.94

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.18

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.59

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.71

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$12.50

Price Target Upside-8.36% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering2

Guess? Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGuess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women, and children. It operates through five segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia, and Licensing. The company's clothing collection includes jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, activewear, knitwear, and intimate apparel. It also grants licenses to design, manufacture, and distribute various products that complement its apparel lines, such as eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids' and infants' apparel, outerwear, fragrance, jewelry, and other fashion accessories, as well as to wholesale partners to operate and sell products through licensed retail stores. The company markets its products under the GUESS, GUESS?, GUESS U.S.A., GUESS Jeans, GUESS? and Triangle Design, MARCIANO, Question Mark and Triangle Design, a stylized G and a stylized M, GUESS Kids, Baby GUESS, YES, G by GUESS, GUESS by MARCIANO, and Gc brand names. It sells its products through direct-to-consumer, wholesale, and licensing distribution channels. As of January 29, 2022, the company directly operated 1,068 retail stores in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its partner's distributors operated an additional 563 retail stores worldwide. The company also offers its products through its retail websites. Guess?, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyGuess? Inc. generates revenue through various channels, primarily focusing on retail sales, wholesale distribution, and licensing agreements. Retail sales are derived from company-operated stores and e-commerce platforms where consumers purchase fashion products directly. Wholesale revenue comes from selling products to various department stores, specialty retailers, and international distributors. Additionally, Guess? leverages its brand by entering into licensing agreements, allowing third parties to produce and sell products under the Guess? brand, which generates royalties and enhances brand presence. The company's strategic partnerships and global expansion efforts further contribute to its earnings, allowing it to tap into diverse markets and consumer segments worldwide.

Guess? Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Shows revenue distribution across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.

Chart InsightsGuess? has shown a notable recovery in product sales post-pandemic, with recent quarters indicating a steady upward trend. The latest earnings call highlights the positive impact of the rag & bone acquisition, contributing significantly to revenue growth. However, challenges persist, particularly in Asia with a significant revenue decline, and pressure on gross margins. The European wholesale segment is a bright spot, driving growth, while the Americas retail segment struggles with declining comps. Overall, the company anticipates moderate revenue growth, but strategic adjustments are crucial to address regional weaknesses.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Guess? Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 05, 2025

(Q1-2026)

% Change Since: 27.36%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative developments. While the company showed strong revenue growth, particularly in the wholesale segments and with the acquisition of rag & bone, there were significant challenges including declines in Asia and licensing revenues, as well as a decrease in gross margin. The sentiment is mixed with slight positive trends in certain areas, but significant issues remain.

Q1-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Overall Revenue Growth

Total company revenues increased by 9% in U.S. dollars to $648 million, with a constant currency increase of 12%. The acquisition of rag & bone contributed 9 percentage points to constant currency growth.

European Wholesale Success

The European wholesale business posted a mid-teen growth rate driven by reliable product deliveries despite supply chain challenges.

Americas Wholesale Performance

Americas Wholesale revenues increased by 63% in U.S. dollars, driven by the addition of rag & bone and higher Guess shipments in the U.S. and Mexico.

Rag & Bone Outperformance

Rag & bone significantly outperformed expectations with strong wholesale shipments and growth in retail stores and online. The business is expected to reach over $320 million in sales, up from $250 million before acquisition.

Loyalty Program Success

In Europe, the new customer loyalty program led to a 36% increase in revenues from loyalty customers in Italy and Poland.

Negative Updates

Asia Revenue Decline

Asia revenues decreased by over 20%, with significant weakness in the Greater China market. The company is seeking a partner to take over the business in this region.

Licensing Revenue Challenges

Licensing segment revenues declined by 14%, with declines in fragrances and footwear, although handbags showed growth.

Americas Retail Comps Decline

Comps for U.S. and Canadian stores declined by 10% in constant currency, with a total decline of 11% including e-commerce.

Gross Margin Pressure

Total company gross margin fell by 200 basis points to 39.9%, driven by business mix changes and lower royalty income.

Adjusted Operating Loss

The company reported an adjusted operating loss of $26 million and an adjusted operating loss margin of 4%.

Company Guidance

During the Guess? First Quarter Fiscal 2026 earnings call, the company provided optimistic guidance, citing a 9% increase in revenue despite a 2.5-point currency headwind. This growth was propelled by the acquisition of rag & bone, which contributed 9 percentage points to the top line growth in constant currency, and a 3-point contribution from the core Guess business. The European wholesale segment emerged as the largest growth driver with a mid-teen increase, whereas the retail segment in Europe faced a 4% decline in constant currency comps. In the Americas, the wholesale business surpassed expectations with double-digit growth, while the retail segment saw a net 10% constant currency comp sales decline, albeit with improved conversion rates. The Asian market continued to struggle, particularly in Greater China, resulting in a revenue decline of over 20%. Adjusted operating loss stood at $26 million with a margin of -4%, showing improvement over initial expectations. For the full fiscal year, Guess? anticipates revenue growth between 5.5% and 7.4%, with an adjusted operating margin of 4.4% to 5.1%, and EPS ranging from $1.32 to $1.64.

Guess? Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Guess? shows promising revenue growth and robust gross margins, indicating strength in sales and cost management. However, profitability metrics reveal challenges in converting revenue growth to net income, with thin net profit margins and low ROE. The balance sheet indicates potential risks from high leverage, while cash flow analysis highlights challenges with free cash flow management.

Income Statement

Positive

Guess? has demonstrated a healthy revenue growth trajectory, with a TTM revenue of approximately $3.05 billion, reflecting consistent growth from previous years. The gross profit margin stands strong at approximately 42.97% for the TTM, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is thin at 0.47%, which indicates challenges in translating revenue growth into higher net profits. EBIT and EBITDA margins, at 5.26% and 4.35% respectively, suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 3.3, pointing to a significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio stands at 16.89%, indicating a relatively small equity base compared to total assets. Return on equity (ROE) is low at 3.0%, reflecting limited profitability relative to shareholder's equity. These metrics suggest potential risks related to leverage, although the company maintains a stable asset base.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Guess? faces challenges in cash flow management, highlighted by negative free cash flow in the TTM. The free cash flow growth rate has declined due to increased capital expenditures. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 4.92, indicating effective cash conversion from net income but overshadowed by negative free cash flow. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests cash flow pressures impacting financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.00B	2.78B	2.69B	2.59B	1.88B
Gross Profit	1.30B	1.22B	1.15B	1.17B	697.10M
EBITDA	178.52M	318.65M	316.39M	364.37M	-890.00K
Net Income	60.42M	198.20M	149.61M	171.36M	-80.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.77B	2.59B	2.43B	2.56B	2.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	187.70M	360.29M	275.76M	415.56M	469.11M
Total Debt	1.42B	1.16B	1.13B	1.15B	1.25B
Total Liabilities	2.22B	1.85B	1.84B	1.89B	1.90B
Stockholders Equity	505.01M	684.94M	534.11M	622.66M	543.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	35.59M	256.17M	79.69M	68.12M	190.17M
Operating Cash Flow	121.68M	330.38M	169.19M	131.64M	209.05M
Investing Cash Flow	-113.16M	-75.14M	-89.87M	-62.28M	-22.16M
Financing Cash Flow	-165.50M	-168.84M	-217.19M	-97.04M	-9.91M

Guess? Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price13.64

Price Trends

50DMA

11.98

Positive

100DMA

11.18

Positive

200DMA

12.68

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.40

Negative

RSI

62.42

Neutral

STOCH

84.70

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.97, above the 50-day MA of 11.98, and above the 200-day MA of 12.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GES.

Guess? Risk Analysis

Guess? disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Guess? reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Guess? Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BKE	79 Outperform	$2.51B	12.64	44.55%	7.95%	-1.08%	-8.20%
URBN	79 Outperform	$6.78B	15.84	19.55%	―	8.38%	52.18%
GAP	71 Outperform	$7.71B	9.00	29.16%	3.05%	1.07%	28.03%
GES	68 Neutral	$709.51M	14.29	2.61%	8.80%	9.02%	-93.19%
AEO	68 Neutral	$2.03B	12.01	12.19%	4.26%	-0.95%	-10.51%
CRI	66 Neutral	$958.40M	6.99	15.95%	10.08%	-1.46%	-41.93%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$17.18B	10.68	-8.50%	2.94%	1.62%	-25.72%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GES

Guess?

13.64

-7.70

-36.08%

AEO

American Eagle

11.74

-9.74

-45.34%

BKE

Buckle

49.07

10.56

27.42%

CRI

Carter's

26.30

-31.12

-54.20%

GAP

Gap Inc

20.40

-1.18

-5.47%

URBN

Urban Outfitters

75.61

29.26

63.13%

Guess? Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings

Guess? Holds Virtual Annual Shareholders Meeting

Positive

Jun 11, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Guess?, Inc. conducted its annual shareholders meeting virtually, where a quorum was present with 46,923,773 shares represented. The shareholders voted to elect seven directors, approve executive compensation, and ratify Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026. All director nominees were elected, the executive compensation was approved, and the auditor’s appointment was ratified, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s governance and financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (GES) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guess? stock, see the GES Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025