Guess? (GES) AI Stock Analysis

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Guess?

(NYSE:GES)

Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:

$13.00

▲(8.06%Upside)

The overall stock score of Guess?, Inc. reflects a balance of strong revenue growth and a high dividend yield, offset by declining profitability, high leverage, and valuation concerns. The company's technical indicators suggest moderate momentum, but the stock remains below its long-term moving average. Optimistic earnings guidance provides some confidence, but significant challenges, particularly in Asia, pose risks to sustained growth.

Guess? (GES) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$571.60M

Dividend Yield9.97%

Average Volume (3M)732.05K

Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3

Beta (1Y)0.97

Revenue Growth9.02%

EPS Growth-93.09%

CountryUS

Employees13,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength63

IndustryApparel - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.44

Shares Outstanding52,011,368

10 Day Avg. Volume757,177

30 Day Avg. Volume732,047

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.24

Price to Book (P/B)1.15

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio16.66

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$12.50

Price Target Upside3.91% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering2

Guess? Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGuess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women, and children. It operates through five segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia, and Licensing. The company's clothing collection includes jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, activewear, knitwear, and intimate apparel. It also grants licenses to design, manufacture, and distribute various products that complement its apparel lines, such as eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids' and infants' apparel, outerwear, fragrance, jewelry, and other fashion accessories, as well as to wholesale partners to operate and sell products through licensed retail stores. The company markets its products under the GUESS, GUESS?, GUESS U.S.A., GUESS Jeans, GUESS? and Triangle Design, MARCIANO, Question Mark and Triangle Design, a stylized G and a stylized M, GUESS Kids, Baby GUESS, YES, G by GUESS, GUESS by MARCIANO, and Gc brand names. It sells its products through direct-to-consumer, wholesale, and licensing distribution channels. As of January 29, 2022, the company directly operated 1,068 retail stores in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its partner's distributors operated an additional 563 retail stores worldwide. The company also offers its products through its retail websites. Guess?, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyGuess? Inc. generates revenue through various channels, primarily focusing on retail sales, wholesale distribution, and licensing agreements. Retail sales are derived from company-operated stores and e-commerce platforms where consumers purchase fashion products directly. Wholesale revenue comes from selling products to various department stores, specialty retailers, and international distributors. Additionally, Guess? leverages its brand by entering into licensing agreements, allowing third parties to produce and sell products under the Guess? brand, which generates royalties and enhances brand presence. The company's strategic partnerships and global expansion efforts further contribute to its earnings, allowing it to tap into diverse markets and consumer segments worldwide.

Guess? Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Shows revenue distribution across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.

Chart InsightsGuess? has shown a notable recovery in product sales post-pandemic, with recent quarters indicating a steady upward trend. The latest earnings call highlights the positive impact of the rag & bone acquisition, contributing significantly to revenue growth. However, challenges persist, particularly in Asia with a significant revenue decline, and pressure on gross margins. The European wholesale segment is a bright spot, driving growth, while the Americas retail segment struggles with declining comps. Overall, the company anticipates moderate revenue growth, but strategic adjustments are crucial to address regional weaknesses.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Guess? Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 05, 2025

(Q1-2026)

% Change Since: 9.46%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative developments. While the company showed strong revenue growth, particularly in the wholesale segments and with the acquisition of rag & bone, there were significant challenges including declines in Asia and licensing revenues, as well as a decrease in gross margin. The sentiment is mixed with slight positive trends in certain areas, but significant issues remain.

Q1-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Overall Revenue Growth

Total company revenues increased by 9% in U.S. dollars to $648 million, with a constant currency increase of 12%. The acquisition of rag & bone contributed 9 percentage points to constant currency growth.

European Wholesale Success

The European wholesale business posted a mid-teen growth rate driven by reliable product deliveries despite supply chain challenges.

Americas Wholesale Performance

Americas Wholesale revenues increased by 63% in U.S. dollars, driven by the addition of rag & bone and higher Guess shipments in the U.S. and Mexico.

Rag & Bone Outperformance

Rag & bone significantly outperformed expectations with strong wholesale shipments and growth in retail stores and online. The business is expected to reach over $320 million in sales, up from $250 million before acquisition.

Loyalty Program Success

In Europe, the new customer loyalty program led to a 36% increase in revenues from loyalty customers in Italy and Poland.

Negative Updates

Asia Revenue Decline

Asia revenues decreased by over 20%, with significant weakness in the Greater China market. The company is seeking a partner to take over the business in this region.

Licensing Revenue Challenges

Licensing segment revenues declined by 14%, with declines in fragrances and footwear, although handbags showed growth.

Americas Retail Comps Decline

Comps for U.S. and Canadian stores declined by 10% in constant currency, with a total decline of 11% including e-commerce.

Gross Margin Pressure

Total company gross margin fell by 200 basis points to 39.9%, driven by business mix changes and lower royalty income.

Adjusted Operating Loss

The company reported an adjusted operating loss of $26 million and an adjusted operating loss margin of 4%.

Company Guidance

During the Guess? First Quarter Fiscal 2026 earnings call, the company provided optimistic guidance, citing a 9% increase in revenue despite a 2.5-point currency headwind. This growth was propelled by the acquisition of rag & bone, which contributed 9 percentage points to the top line growth in constant currency, and a 3-point contribution from the core Guess business. The European wholesale segment emerged as the largest growth driver with a mid-teen increase, whereas the retail segment in Europe faced a 4% decline in constant currency comps. In the Americas, the wholesale business surpassed expectations with double-digit growth, while the retail segment saw a net 10% constant currency comp sales decline, albeit with improved conversion rates. The Asian market continued to struggle, particularly in Greater China, resulting in a revenue decline of over 20%. Adjusted operating loss stood at $26 million with a margin of -4%, showing improvement over initial expectations. For the full fiscal year, Guess? anticipates revenue growth between 5.5% and 7.4%, with an adjusted operating margin of 4.4% to 5.1%, and EPS ranging from $1.32 to $1.64.

Guess? Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Guess?, Inc. exhibits strong revenue growth and a stable gross profit margin. However, the company faces challenges with declining net profitability and increased leverage. High debt levels and reduced cash flow generation could limit financial flexibility and pose potential risks in volatile market conditions.

Income Statement

Positive

Guess?, Inc. has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over recent years, with a notable revenue increase of 7.9% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 43.4% in 2025, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased from 7.1% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, reflecting a decline in profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting increased operating expenses or reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a moderate balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.58 in 2025, indicating a high level of leverage which could pose risks in economic downturns. The return on equity dropped from 28.9% in 2024 to 19.0% in 2025, signaling reduced efficiency in utilizing shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 19.9%, suggesting that a substantial portion of assets is financed by debt.

Cash Flow

Positive

Operating cash flow decreased significantly from 2024 to 2025, showing diminished cash generation from core operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains favorable at 1.16 in 2025, highlighting effective cash conversion. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative due to a decline in operating cash flow, impacting overall financial flexibility.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.00B	2.78B	2.69B	2.59B	1.88B
	Gross Profit
1.30B	1.22B	1.15B	1.17B	697.10M
	EBIT
173.81M	263.28M	159.31M	222.84M	-47.27M
	EBITDA
178.52M	318.65M	316.39M	364.37M	-890.00K
	Net Income Common Stockholders
60.42M	198.20M	149.61M	171.36M	-80.74M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
187.70M	360.29M	275.76M	415.56M	469.11M
	Total Assets
2.77B	2.59B	2.43B	2.56B	2.47B
	Total Debt
1.42B	1.16B	1.13B	1.15B	1.25B
	Net Debt
1.23B	802.31M	857.89M	737.65M	782.23M
	Total Liabilities
2.22B	1.85B	1.84B	1.89B	1.90B
	Stockholders Equity
505.01M	684.94M	534.11M	622.66M	543.66M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
35.59M	256.17M	79.69M	68.12M	190.17M
	Operating Cash Flow
121.68M	330.38M	169.19M	131.64M	209.05M
	Investing Cash Flow
-113.16M	-75.14M	-89.87M	-62.28M	-22.16M
	Financing Cash Flow
-165.50M	-168.84M	-217.19M	-97.04M	-9.91M

Guess? Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price12.03

Price Trends

50DMA

10.85

Positive

100DMA

11.19

Positive

200DMA

13.98

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.03

Negative

RSI

61.18

Neutral

STOCH

68.39

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.36, above the 50-day MA of 10.85, and below the 200-day MA of 13.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GES.

Guess? Risk Analysis

Guess? disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Guess? reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Guess? Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URBN	81 Outperform	$6.25B	14.67	19.55%	―	8.38%	52.18%
BKE	75 Outperform	$2.22B	11.14	44.55%	3.23%	-1.08%	-8.20%
GAP	72 Outperform	$8.05B	9.40	29.16%	2.80%	1.07%	28.03%
CRI	67 Neutral	$1.16B	7.04	18.91%	10.07%	-3.39%	-28.96%
GES	64 Neutral	$571.60M	14.29	2.65%	9.97%	9.02%	-93.09%
AEO	64 Neutral	$1.76B	10.38	12.19%	4.93%	-0.95%	-10.51%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.88B	11.32	2.95%	3.87%	2.70%	-24.57%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GES

Guess?

12.03

-9.14

-43.17%

AEO

American Eagle

10.16

-9.95

-49.48%

BKE

Buckle

43.31

10.02

30.10%

CRI

Carter's

31.79

-31.12

-49.47%

GAP

Gap Inc

21.95

-3.37

-13.31%

URBN

Urban Outfitters

70.02

27.32

63.98%

Guess? Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Guess?, Inc. Appoints New CFO Amid Revenue Growth

Positive

Apr 3, 2025

On April 3, 2025, Guess?, Inc. announced the appointment of Alberto Toni as the new Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Dennis Secor, who will remain as Interim CFO until the company’s first quarter 10-Q filing. The company reported a 5% revenue increase in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by acquisitions and growth in wholesale and licensing segments, despite challenges in the Asia market. Looking forward, Guess? anticipates revenue growth in fiscal 2026 and plans to optimize its business and portfolio to unlock $30 million in operating profit by fiscal 2027.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.