Guess? (GES) AI Stock Analysis

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Guess?

(NYSE:GES)

70Outperform

Guess?, Inc. presents a mixed outlook with strong revenue growth and a high dividend yield as significant positives. However, challenges such as declining net profitability, high leverage, and technical signals of a bearish trend weigh on the overall score. Positive corporate events like the CFO appointment add optimism for strategic improvements.

Guess? (GES) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$588.87M

Dividend Yield10.76%

Average Volume (3M)1.85M

Price to Earnings (P/E)14.8

Beta (1Y)0.95

Revenue Growth7.88%

EPS Growth-68.39%

CountryUS

Employees13,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength62

IndustryApparel - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.58

Shares Outstanding51,837,570

10 Day Avg. Volume1,407,701

30 Day Avg. Volume1,846,172

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.66

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.65

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$12.50

Price Target Upside10.04% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering2

Guess? Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGuess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women, and children. It operates through five segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia, and Licensing. The company's clothing collection includes jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, activewear, knitwear, and intimate apparel. It also grants licenses to design, manufacture, and distribute various products that complement its apparel lines, such as eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids' and infants' apparel, outerwear, fragrance, jewelry, and other fashion accessories, as well as to wholesale partners to operate and sell products through licensed retail stores. The company markets its products under the GUESS, GUESS?, GUESS U.S.A., GUESS Jeans, GUESS? and Triangle Design, MARCIANO, Question Mark and Triangle Design, a stylized G and a stylized M, GUESS Kids, Baby GUESS, YES, G by GUESS, GUESS by MARCIANO, and Gc brand names. It sells its products through direct-to-consumer, wholesale, and licensing distribution channels. As of January 29, 2022, the company directly operated 1,068 retail stores in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its partner's distributors operated an additional 563 retail stores worldwide. The company also offers its products through its retail websites. Guess?, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyGuess?, Inc. generates revenue through multiple channels including retail, wholesale, and licensing. The company's retail operations encompass a global network of branded stores, both directly operated and through partnerships, providing a direct-to-consumer sales model. The wholesale segment involves selling Guess? products to department stores and specialty retailers, expanding the brand's reach beyond its own retail locations. Additionally, Guess? capitalizes on licensing agreements for products such as eyewear, watches, and fragrances, allowing third parties to produce and sell these items under the Guess? brand name. These diversified revenue streams, combined with strategic marketing and a focus on fashion-forward designs, contribute to the company's financial performance.

Guess? Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.

Chart InsightsGuess? has shown a strong recovery in product sales, with a notable increase in 2024, driven by strategic acquisitions like rag & bone, which significantly boosted revenue. However, challenges persist in the Americas and Asia, impacting overall growth potential. The licensing segment is performing well, exceeding expectations and contributing to revenue stability. Looking forward, Guess? anticipates moderate revenue growth, focusing on improving profitability and capital returns, despite operating margin pressures and planned store closures in North America.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Guess? Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Guess?, Inc. shows strong revenue growth and a stable gross profit margin, but faces challenges with declining net profitability and increased leverage. The company's high debt levels and reduced cash flow generation could limit financial flexibility, posing potential risks in volatile market conditions.

Income Statement

Positive

Guess?, Inc. has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over recent years, with a notable revenue increase of 7.9% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 43.4% in 2025, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased from 7.1% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, reflecting a decline in profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting increased operating expenses or reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a moderate balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.58 in 2025, indicating a high level of leverage which could pose risks in economic downturns. The return on equity dropped from 28.9% in 2024 to 19.0% in 2025, signaling reduced efficiency in utilizing shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 19.9%, suggesting that a substantial portion of assets is financed by debt.

Cash Flow

Positive

Operating cash flow decreased significantly from 2024 to 2025, showing diminished cash generation from core operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains favorable at 1.16 in 2025, highlighting effective cash conversion. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative due to a decline in operating cash flow, impacting overall financial flexibility.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.00B	2.78B	2.69B	2.59B	1.88B
	Gross Profit
1.30B	1.22B	1.15B	1.17B	697.10M
	EBIT
173.81M	263.28M	159.31M	222.84M	-47.27M
	EBITDA
178.52M	318.65M	316.39M	364.37M	-890.00K
	Net Income Common Stockholders
60.42M	198.20M	149.61M	171.36M	-80.74M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
187.70M	360.29M	275.76M	415.56M	469.11M
	Total Assets
2.77B	2.59B	2.43B	2.56B	2.47B
	Total Debt
1.42B	1.16B	1.13B	1.15B	1.25B
	Net Debt
1.23B	802.31M	857.89M	737.65M	782.23M
	Total Liabilities
2.22B	1.85B	1.84B	1.89B	1.90B
	Stockholders Equity
505.01M	684.94M	534.11M	622.66M	543.66M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
35.59M	256.17M	79.69M	68.12M	190.17M
	Operating Cash Flow
121.68M	330.38M	169.19M	131.64M	209.05M
	Investing Cash Flow
-113.16M	-75.14M	-89.87M	-62.28M	-22.16M
	Financing Cash Flow
-165.50M	-168.84M	-217.19M	-97.04M	-9.91M

Guess? Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price11.36

Price Trends

50DMA

10.53

Positive

100DMA

11.82

Negative

200DMA

15.18

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.24

Negative

RSI

55.41

Neutral

STOCH

62.61

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.33, above the 50-day MA of 10.53, and below the 200-day MA of 15.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GES.

Guess? Risk Analysis

Guess? disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Guess? reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Guess? Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URBN	76 Outperform	$5.05B	12.78	17.56%	―	7.71%	40.01%
GAP	73 Outperform	$8.66B	10.46	28.81%	2.67%	1.32%	65.83%
AEO	73 Outperform	$1.91B	6.62	18.80%	4.68%	1.27%	96.32%
CRI	71 Outperform	$1.35B	7.26	18.91%	9.68%	-3.39%	-28.96%
GES	70 Outperform	$588.87M	14.77	10.01%	10.76%	7.88%	-68.39%
BKE	66 Neutral	$1.84B	9.25	46.71%	3.90%	-3.44%	-11.74%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$6.66B	11.71	2.96%	4.01%	2.64%	-20.91%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GES

Guess?

11.36

-13.73

-54.72%

AEO

American Eagle

11.10

-12.77

-53.50%

BKE

Buckle

35.92

0.46

1.30%

CRI

Carter's

34.96

-31.62

-47.49%

GAP

Gap Inc

22.99

1.43

6.63%

URBN

Urban Outfitters

54.51

13.45

32.76%

Guess? Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 03, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: 16.75%|

Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted significant achievements such as revenue growth, strategic acquisitions, and strong performance in Europe and licensing. However, these were offset by challenges in the Americas and Asia, operating margin declines, and store closures, leading to a balanced sentiment.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Revenues increased by 5% in Q4, reaching $932 million. Adjusted for currencies and last year's extra week, growth would have been 14%.

rag & bone Acquisition

The acquisition of rag & bone contributed significantly, representing 9 points of the 14% adjusted revenue growth in Q4.

Europe Wholesale Growth

Despite currency headwinds, Europe wholesale grew mid-single digits, and the fall-winter collection order book closed with a 7% growth.

Licensing Business Performance

Licensing business exceeded revenue expectations, growing 18% in Q4.

New Initiatives in India

Signed a partnership with Tata Group, closing the year with 22 new stores in India.

Negative Updates

Americas Retail Decline

Americas Guess retail business did not meet revenue expectations, with a 14% constant-currency comp decline in US and Canada.

Challenges in Asia

Guess Asia business performed at the lower end of expectations, with a revenue decline in the upper teens, particularly in South Korea and China.

Operating Margin Decline

Company delivered an adjusted operating margin of 11.4% in Q4, below expectations.

Gross Margin Decrease

Gross margin was 44.1%, below expectations due to higher markdown pressure and unfavorable currency impact.

North American Store Closures

Plan to reduce the North American store fleet by roughly 20 stores by year-end.

Company Guidance

During the Guess Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance for the future. For the fourth quarter, revenues increased by 5% to $932 million, with an adjusted operating margin of 11.4% and an adjusted EPS of $1.48. For the full year, Guess reported an 8% increase in revenues to $3 billion, with an adjusted operating profit of $180 million and an adjusted operating margin of 6%. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Guess anticipates a revenue growth range of 3.9% to 6.2%, an adjusted operating margin between 4.5% and 5.4%, and adjusted EPS between $1.32 and $1.76. The company also highlighted the impact of its acquisition of rag & bone, with expectations for continued growth from this brand, and discussed strategic initiatives to improve profitability and return on invested capital.

Guess? Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Guess?, Inc. Appoints New CFO Amid Revenue Growth

Positive

Apr 3, 2025

On April 3, 2025, Guess?, Inc. announced the appointment of Alberto Toni as the new Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Dennis Secor, who will remain as Interim CFO until the company’s first quarter 10-Q filing. The company reported a 5% revenue increase in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by acquisitions and growth in wholesale and licensing segments, despite challenges in the Asia market. Looking forward, Guess? anticipates revenue growth in fiscal 2026 and plans to optimize its business and portfolio to unlock $30 million in operating profit by fiscal 2027.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.