Genius Sports Limited (GENI)
NYSE:GENI
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Genius Sports Limited
(NYSE:GENI)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-7.98% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is supported most by improving cash generation and a conservatively levered balance sheet, reinforced by upbeat guidance and strategic upside outlined on the earnings call. It is held back by ongoing net losses/negative margins, weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD), and limited valuation support given a negative P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow and a material jump to positive free cash flow in 2025 indicate improving core cash conversion. Durable FCF supports reinvestment, debt servicing for Legend financing, and funds product expansion without relying on frequent equity raises.
Negative Factors
Ongoing net losses and negative margins
Despite revenue growth and improving EBITDA, persistent net losses and negative net margins mean returns on equity remain impaired. Sustained profitability is needed to fully realize shareholder value from scale and avoid dependency on continued external financing or dilutive capital events.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow and a material jump to positive free cash flow in 2025 indicate improving core cash conversion. Durable FCF supports reinvestment, debt servicing for Legend financing, and funds product expansion without relying on frequent equity raises.
Read all positive factors
Genius Sports Limited (GENI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth31.04%
EPS Growth-59.19%
CountryUS
Employees1,850
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.43
Shares Outstanding246,306,290
10 Day Avg. Volume4,771,766
30 Day Avg. Volume5,599,661
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)3.88
Price to Sales (P/S)4.19
P/FCF Ratio43.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-13.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.21Price Target Upside108.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$832.36M
Genius Sports Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Genius Sports Limited develops and sells technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live data of sports ...
How the Company Makes Money
Genius Sports primarily makes money by selling data, technology, and media/inventory solutions tied to sports events. A key revenue stream is providing “official” real-time sports data (e.g., play-by-play and other in-game data feeds) and related ...
Genius Sports Limited Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales across regions (for example North America, Europe, APAC), highlighting where the business is strongest and where it may face regulatory, competitive or seasonality risks. Useful for spotting growth opportunities in under-penetrated markets and concentration risks if a large share of revenue depends on a single region.
Breaks down sales across regions (for example North America, Europe, APAC), highlighting where the business is strongest and where it may face regulatory, competitive or seasonality risks. Useful for spotting growth opportunities in under-penetrated markets and concentration risks if a large share of revenue depends on a single region.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGenius Sports Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong financial momentum: robust 31% revenue growth, record 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, balanced outperformance across betting (+33%) and media (+37%), clear product traction (BetVision), and a strategic acquisition (Legend) that management expects to be immediately accretive and to materially improve scale, margins and free cash flow conversion. Notable risks were acknowledged — FY2025 free cash flow was pressured by ~ $30 million of nonrecurring litigation expenses, media revenue recognition changes that will temper reported top-line growth, ongoing litigation uncertainty, rights cost phasing, and the need for regulatory approval for Legend. On balance, positive operational and strategic developments significantly outweigh the cited challenges, though near-term cash flow and revenue-recognition shifts introduce some execution and timing risk.Positive Updates
Strong Annual Revenue Growth
Group revenue of $669 million in FY2025, up 31% year-over-year — the company's strongest annual increase since 2021.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Pressure in 2025
Free cash flow was down in FY2025; management attributed roughly a $30 million adverse swing to nonrecurring litigation-related expenses and noted M&A and equity activity also affected the year's free cash flow outturn.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Annual Revenue Growth
Group revenue of $669 million in FY2025, up 31% year-over-year — the company's strongest annual increase since 2021.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance calling for organic revenue of $810–$820M and adjusted EBITDA of $180–$190M (≈22% and 36% growth), building on 2025 results of $669M group revenue (+31%) and $136M adjusted EBITDA (20% margin); post-close of Legend (expected Q2) the combined annualized run-rate is expected to be ~$1.1B revenue, $320–$330M adjusted EBITDA (~30% margin) and ≈50% free cash flow conversion, with targets accelerated by two years and an aspiration to sustain ~20% revenue growth and >50% FCF conversion into 2028. Additional disclosed metrics include 2025 betting revenue +33% and media revenue $144M (+37%), Americas growth +41% and Europe >20%, Legend’s stated audience of 118M users and >$300M invested, Legend-acquired customers showing +60% value after one year, Legend traffic spend ~5% (vs. 20–40% for affiliates), an iCasino TAM expansion of ~70%, cross-product customers ~15x more valuable, BetVision ~25,000 events today with a path to ~300,000, in‑play share ~30% in the U.S. (70–80% in parts of Europe) and BetVision monetizing at roughly 3x in‑play rates; management also noted a $281M cash balance and that ~ $30M of 2025 free‑cash‑flow headwind was related to nonrecurring legal items.Genius Sports Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 669.49M | 510.89M | 412.98M | 341.03M | 262.74M |
| Gross Profit | 153.84M | 128.71M | 69.00M | 2.86M | -213.43M |
| EBITDA | -32.65M | 16.28M | 5.64M | -112.67M | -541.77M |
| Net Income | -111.58M | -63.04M | -85.53M | -181.64M | -592.75M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 792.27M | 775.72M | 773.34M | 887.08M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 280.56M | 110.21M | 100.33M | 122.72M | 222.38M |
| Total Debt | 30.50M | 7.51M | 14.70M | 21.24M | 88.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 405.81M | 219.86M | 202.71M | 196.52M | 180.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 724.48M | 572.40M | 573.02M | 576.82M | 706.18M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 64.54M | 17.61M | -34.27M | -51.01M | -96.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 86.39M | 81.86M | 14.88M | -3.46M | -63.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -92.91M | -62.69M | -47.57M | -54.82M | -132.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 143.98M | -7.60M | -596.00K | -21.00K | 410.36M |
Genius Sports Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
4.89
Price Trends
5.25
Negative
7.73
Negative
9.70
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Negative
52.09
Neutral
91.28
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GENI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.44, below the 50-day MA of 5.25, and below the 200-day MA of 9.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GENI.
Genius Sports Limited Risk Analysis
Genius Sports Limited disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genius Sports Limited reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Shareholders owning at least 5% of Genius ordinary shares may be subject to regulatory obligations Q4, 2023
2.
Elevated interest rates and inflationary pressures could lead to persistently higher costs in our business, which may not always be offset with higher revenue. Q4, 2023
3.
Changes in gambling regulations, both in mature and emerging markets, and including regulatory authorities failing to legalize sports betting at the anticipated rate, could adversely affect our financial results, business operations, and prospects. This could include introduction of mandatory gambling supplier regimes resulting in additional license conditions or restrictions on us and/or our customers, including restrictions on gambling advertisements, restrictions on betting markets or types of betting including in play, player affordability limits, and player incentives controls. Q4, 2023
Genius Sports Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $1.69B | 13.01 | 11.26% | 5.47% | 24.83% | 73.88% | |
66 Neutral | $74.97B | 114.99 | 10.15% | ― | 27.93% | 652.44% | |
64 Neutral | $1.39B | 3.03 | 5.63% | ― | 24.49% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $1.15B | -34.68 | -15.51% | ― | 31.04% | -59.19% | |
51 Neutral | $2.46B | -8.13 | 508.08% | ― | -19.33% | -67.39% | |
49 Neutral | $69.22M | -0.05 | -51.54% | ― | -26.41% | -4283.11% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GENI
Genius Sports Limited
4.50
-6.51
-59.13%
TRVG
trivago
2.80
-2.22
-44.22%
OPRA
Opera
18.91
2.31
13.93%
SEAT
Vivid Seats
6.43
-49.37
-88.48%
DASH
DoorDash
172.57
-32.83
-15.98%
NN
NextNav
18.12
5.11
39.28%
Genius Sports Limited Corporate Events
Genius Sports Closes Legend Acquisition and Secures $1.05 Billion Debt Package
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Genius Sports completed the acquisition of Zeal Ltd’s Legend business, a global digital sports and gaming media network, paying $800 million in cash plus more than 10 million new shares, with potential additional earn-out ...
Genius Sports Posts Double-Digit 2025 Growth and Reaffirms 2026 Outlook as Legend Deal Looms
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Genius Sports reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing sharp top-line and profitability gains, even as it remained loss-making. Group revenue rose 37% in Q4 to $240.5 million and 31% for 2025 to $669.5 million, ...
Genius Sports Executives and Directors Buy 1.4 Million Shares in February 2026
Feb 13, 2026
Genius Sports Limited disclosed that members of its senior management and Board of Directors, including co-founder and chief executive Mark Locke and chairman Kenneth Kay, along with the Legend Founder, bought roughly 1.4 million of the company...
Genius Sports to Buy Legend in Up to $1.2 Billion Deal to Build Integrated Sports Data and Media Giant
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Genius Sports Limited signed a definitive agreement to acquire Zeal Ltd (Legend), a global digital sports and gaming media network, in a transaction valued at up to $1.2 billion, comprising $900 million in upfront cash-and-sto...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.