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Genius Sports Limited (GENI)
NYSE:GENI
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Genius Sports Limited
(NYSE:GENI)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(9.45%Upside)
Positive Factors
Market Position
GENI is seen as an integral part of the sports betting ecosystem given its exclusive data rights to some of the most popular leagues which are crucial for betting operators.
Partnerships
The recently extended NFL partnership expands Genius’ access to exclusive ad inventory across both international watch-and-bet feeds and U.S. sportsbook channels.
Revenue Growth
Betting Tech revenue grew by 44%, including a 65% increase for revenue share contracts and 36% growth for contract minimums.
Negative Factors
Contract Risks
Potential contract loss or unfavorable renewals, regulatory risk, sport season delay/lockout, and industry disruption could significantly impact GENI's margins and revenue.
Market Expectations
The negative reaction in the shares was driven by elevated expectations with investors increasingly bullish given GENI's lower sensitivity to negative sport outcomes and Media Tech bull case.
Valuation Concerns
Genius' recent momentum is seen as a sign of improving fundamentals and sentiment, with potential catalysts like Q2 earnings and FanHub inflection helping to narrow valuation gaps.
Genius Sports Limited (GENI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.56B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth22.90%
EPS Growth49.04%
CountryUS
Employees1,850
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength84
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding239,817,500
10 Day Avg. Volume7,390,208
30 Day Avg. Volume5,082,973
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.09
Price to Book (P/B)3.47
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio112.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda67.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.83Price Target Upside27.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
Genius Sports Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGenius Sports Limited develops and sells technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live data of sports leagues; streaming solutions comprising technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as a full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services. The company also provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; live streaming services; creation, delivery, and measurement services for personalized online marketing campaigns; and fan engagement widgets for digital publishers that offer live game statistics and betting-related content. The company is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyGenius Sports makes money primarily through its data and technology services provided to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. The company earns revenue by licensing its sports data and technology platforms to sportsbooks and media entities, charging fees based on data usage, subscription models, and revenue-sharing agreements. Key revenue streams include partnerships with major sports leagues and federations, where Genius Sports acts as an official data provider, delivering exclusive data rights that are crucial for live betting and sports media content. Additionally, the company monetizes its technology solutions, which enhance the accuracy and speed of data collection and distribution. Significant partnerships with sports leagues and betting operators bolster its earnings by expanding its reach and solidifying its position in the global sports data market.
Genius Sports Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -8.72%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth, margin improvements, and strategic expansions such as the NCAA partnership and new product launches. However, some concerns were noted regarding media revenue decline and cash flow seasonality. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negatives, indicating a strong position and optimism for future growth.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Group revenue increased by 20% year-on-year to $144 million, with the betting business growing 44% year-on-year to $107 million.
Significant Margin Improvement
Group adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled from $7 million to $20 million, with a margin expansion of 800 basis points to 14%.
Expanded NCAA Partnership
Extended partnership with NCAA through 2032, securing exclusive data rights for March Madness and all post-season tournaments at no out-of-pocket cost.
Launch of New Products
Introduced semi-automated offsite technology (SAOT) with the English Premier League and expanded BetVision for soccer, expected to cover 18,000 games.
Share Repurchase Program
Announced a $100 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in cash flow outlook and capital allocation strategy.
Negative Updates
Decline in Media Revenue
Media revenue decreased to $26 million from $35 million in the previous year, attributed to a high comparison base.
Cash Flow Seasonality
Traditionally see cash outflows in the first half of the year, with expectations for positive cash inflow for the full year.
Company Guidance
In the call, Genius Sports provided detailed guidance and updates on their financial performance and strategic initiatives for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. The company reported a 20% year-on-year increase in group revenue to $144 million, driven by a 44% growth in their betting business to $107 million. This contributed to a group adjusted EBITDA of $20 million, nearly tripling from $7 million the previous year, with a margin expansion of 800 basis points to 14%. They reiterated their 2025 guidance of at least $620 million in group revenue and $125 million in group adjusted EBITDA, reflecting 21% revenue growth and over 300 basis points of margin expansion. Additionally, Genius Sports highlighted the expansion of their NCAA partnership through 2032, securing exclusive data rights for key events without out-of-pocket costs, and the launch of their semi-automated offsite technology with the English Premier League. The company also announced a share repurchase program of up to $100 million to enhance capital allocation flexibility.Genius Sports Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Genius Sports Limited demonstrates strong revenue growth and financial stability through low leverage and solid equity ratios. However, profitability challenges and fluctuating cash flows pose risks. Continued focus on operational efficiency and cash flow management will be crucial for enhancing financial health.Income Statement
Genius Sports Limited has shown a promising revenue growth trend with a TTM revenue increase of 4.75% over the previous year. Despite this, profitability remains a concern with a negative net profit margin of -8.54% and an EBIT margin of -10.22% TTM, indicating operational challenges. However, EBITDA margin improvement to 2.93% suggests better operational efficiency, which can be a positive sign if sustained.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, reflecting minimal leverage and financial stability. Equity ratio remains robust at 78.39%, signifying a solid equity base. However, consistent negative net income impacts return on equity, which stands at -6.43% TTM, highlighting profitability challenges.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a volatile free cash flow trend with a TTM decrease from prior periods, turning negative. However, an improvement in operating cash flow to net income ratio to -1.44 TTM indicates better cash flow management compared to net losses. The company needs to focus on consistent free cash flow generation to ensure long-term sustainability.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 319.70M | 510.89M | 412.98M | 341.03M | 262.74M | 149.74M |
| Gross Profit | -25.73M | 128.71M | 69.00M | 2.86M | -213.43M | 35.67M |
| EBITDA | -166.99M | 16.28M | 5.64M | -106.37M | -540.96M | 14.92M |
| Net Income | -109.49M | -63.04M | -85.53M | -184.99M | -592.75M | -30.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 906.69M | 792.27M | 775.72M | 773.34M | 887.08M | 391.00M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 209.82M | 110.21M | 100.33M | 122.72M | 222.38M | 11.78M |
| Total Debt | 14.42M | 7.51M | 14.70M | 21.24M | 88.00K | 93.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 195.84M | 219.86M | 202.71M | 196.52M | 180.91M | 530.43M |
| Stockholders Equity | 710.84M | 572.40M | 573.02M | 576.82M | 706.18M | -139.43M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -56.42M | 17.61M | -34.27M | -51.01M | -96.67M | -1.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -7.74M | 81.86M | 14.88M | -3.46M | -63.31M | 17.07M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -55.49M | -62.69M | -47.57M | -54.82M | -132.32M | -22.66M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.32M | -7.60M | -596.00K | -21.00K | 410.36M | 10.10M |
Genius Sports Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
10.05
Price Trends
10.08
Negative
9.83
Positive
9.14
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Negative
51.63
Neutral
43.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GENI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.87, below the 50-day MA of 10.08, and above the 200-day MA of 9.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GENI.
Genius Sports Limited Risk Analysis
Genius Sports Limited disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genius Sports Limited reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Shareholders owning at least 5% of Genius ordinary shares may be subject to regulatory obligations Q4, 2023
2.
Elevated interest rates and inflationary pressures could lead to persistently higher costs in our business, which may not always be offset with higher revenue. Q4, 2023
3.
Changes in gambling regulations, both in mature and emerging markets, and including regulatory authorities failing to legalize sports betting at the anticipated rate, could adversely affect our financial results, business operations, and prospects. This could include introduction of mandatory gambling supplier regimes resulting in additional license conditions or restrictions on us and/or our customers, including restrictions on gambling advertisements, restrictions on betting markets or types of betting including in play, player affordability limits, and player incentives controls. Q4, 2023
Genius Sports Limited Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $1.20B | 96.85 | 1.35% | ― | 16.62% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $2.25B | 16.94 | 19.74% | ― | 5.93% | 29.17% | |
69 Neutral | $2.56B | ― | -7.25% | ― | 22.90% | 49.04% | |
60 Neutral | $3.10B | ― | -15.07% | ― | -18.11% | -516.37% | |
58 Neutral | C$3.32B | 6.33 | -0.75% | 6.13% | -2.19% | -11.60% | |
57 Neutral | $708.43M | 36.28 | -115.07% | ― | 148.62% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $252.72M | ― | -14.61% | ― | 4.15% | -394.93% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GENI
Genius Sports Limited
10.05
4.48
80.43%
YELP
Yelp
35.21
-1.17
-3.22%
IAC
IAC/InteractiveCorp.
38.81
0.36
0.94%
MAX
MediaAlpha
10.50
-2.14
-16.93%
TBLA
Taboola.com
3.69
0.39
11.82%
TEAD
Teads Holding
2.68
-2.13
-44.28%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.