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Genius Sports Limited
(NYSE:GENI)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(31.17% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
GENI’s score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (strong revenue growth, better gross margin, low leverage historically) and a notably upbeat earnings call with raised 2026 profitability guidance and a clearer path to margin expansion. Technicals add support with an established uptrend. The main offset is valuation/profitability risk: net losses persist (negative P/E) and management expects meaningful near-term cash outflows alongside added leverage from acquisition financing.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & Improving Margins
Multi-year revenue expansion with a meaningful move from negative margins to ~23% gross margin demonstrates durable demand for Genius’s data and platform offerings. This scale improves unit economics, supports reinvestment in product, and increases the likelihood of sustained margin expansion as fixed costs spread.
Negative Factors
Persistent Net Losses and Negative Returns
Despite revenue growth, ongoing negative operating profits and a ~-22% net margin indicate the company has yet to convert top-line momentum into durable bottom-line returns. Continued losses can erode equity and require sustained margin improvement to justify continued investment and preserve financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth & Improving Margins
Multi-year revenue expansion with a meaningful move from negative margins to ~23% gross margin demonstrates durable demand for Genius’s data and platform offerings. This scale improves unit economics, supports reinvestment in product, and increases the likelihood of sustained margin expansion as fixed costs spread.
Read all positive factors
Genius Sports Limited Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales across regions (for example North America, Europe, APAC), highlighting where the business is strongest and where it may face regulatory, competitive or seasonality risks. Useful for spotting growth opportunities in under-penetrated markets and concentration risks if a large share of revenue depends on a single region.
Breaks down sales across regions (for example North America, Europe, APAC), highlighting where the business is strongest and where it may face regulatory, competitive or seasonality risks. Useful for spotting growth opportunities in under-penetrated markets and concentration risks if a large share of revenue depends on a single region.
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The Fly
The FlyGenius Sports Limited (GENI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.85B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth33.31%
EPS Growth-210.69%
CountryUS
Employees2,700
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.61
Shares Outstanding257,538,180
10 Day Avg. Volume4,810,232
30 Day Avg. Volume5,431,110
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)3.88
Price to Sales (P/S)4.19
P/FCF Ratio43.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.35Price Target Upside44.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.00B
Genius Sports Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Genius Sports Limited, based in London, United Kingdom, delivers advanced technology solutions and specialized services to stakeholders across the sports, sports betting, and sports media sectors. The company provides crucial technological infrast...
How the Company Makes Money
Genius Sports primarily makes money by selling access to official, real-time sports data and related technology services under commercial agreements with sports leagues and federations, and then distributing that data to customers such as regulate...
Genius Sports Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial metrics (31% revenue growth, 21% adjusted EBITDA growth, Betting +33%, Media +22%), the strategic and immediately accretive Legend acquisition (raising 2026 EBITDA margin guidance from 23% to 28%), rapid product traction (Moment Engine, GeniusIQ, AI efficiencies) and defined guidance for 2026. Near-term headwinds include expected H1 cash outflows, one-time acquisition costs, regulatory uncertainty around prediction markets, and early-stage integration/synergy realization. Overall, positive execution and high growth metrics materially outweigh the near-term cash and regulatory challenges, while management provided a clear path to margin expansion and cash conversion in the back half and beyond.Positive Updates
Strong Top- and Bottom-Line Growth
Group revenue grew 31% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA grew 21% in Q1, driven by balanced contributions across Betting and Media segments.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Cash Flow Seasonality and One-Time Transaction Costs
First-half seasonal cash outflows expected (Q1 noted as a historic outflow period), with Q2 identified as the low point due to seasonality and acquisition-related one-time expenses; commentary implies meaningful negative cash flow in early 2026 before H2 recovery.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top- and Bottom-Line Growth
Group revenue grew 31% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA grew 21% in Q1, driven by balanced contributions across Betting and Media segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance was issued effective May 1 (Q2 includes one month stand‑alone Genius and two months combined): Q2 group revenue is expected at approximately $185M with group adjusted EBITDA of about $45M; full‑year 2026 revenue is guided to $990M–$1.01B and adjusted EBITDA to $270M–$280M, raising the 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin expectation from 23% to ~28% and pulling long‑term margin targets forward by two years. Management reiterated Q1 momentum (Betting +33%, Media +22%, group revenue +31%, adjusted EBITDA +21%) and geographic strength (>25% revenue growth across Europe, Americas and RoW). They expect seasonal cash outflows in H1 with Q2 the low point (Q2 cash burn cited around $140M–$150M), then roughly $100M of total cash flow in H2 (including all interest and debt repayment), implying ~50%–55% conversion of the ~ $200M adjusted EBITDA expected in that period; free cash flow conversion is targeted to increase toward ≥60% on an unlevered basis by 2028 and 2027 is expected to be the year of sustained positive GAAP net income. The Legend financing closed with an $825M Term Loan A at SOFR +350bps (debt sized $25M below the original plan), and today's guidance excludes the four identified revenue synergies (cross‑sell, audience monetization, scaling Legend tech to 400+ league/team partners, and distribution through Legend channels).Genius Sports Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 713.45M | 669.49M | 510.89M | 412.98M | 341.03M | 262.74M |
| Gross Profit | 161.63M | 153.84M | 128.71M | 69.00M | 2.86M | -213.43M |
| EBITDA | -111.05M | -43.55M | 16.28M | 5.64M | -112.67M | -541.77M |
| Net Income | -158.85M | -111.58M | -63.04M | -85.53M | -181.64M | -592.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.02B | 1.13B | 792.27M | 775.72M | 773.34M | 887.08M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 197.44M | 280.56M | 110.21M | 100.33M | 122.72M | 222.38M |
| Total Debt | 30.55M | 30.50M | 7.51M | 14.70M | 21.24M | 88.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 322.57M | 405.81M | 219.86M | 202.71M | 196.52M | 180.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 695.10M | 724.48M | 572.40M | 573.02M | 576.82M | 706.18M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.39M | 64.54M | 17.61M | -34.27M | -51.01M | -96.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 54.30M | 86.39M | 81.86M | 14.88M | -3.46M | -63.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -95.63M | -92.91M | -62.69M | -47.57M | -54.82M | -132.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.00K | 143.98M | -7.60M | -596.00K | -21.00K | 410.36M |
Genius Sports Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
6.48
Price Trends
6.45
Positive
5.50
Positive
7.40
Positive
Market Momentum
0.41
Negative
73.36
Negative
83.21
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GENI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.82, above the 50-day MA of 6.45, and below the 200-day MA of 7.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.36 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GENI.
Genius Sports Limited Risk Analysis
Genius Sports Limited disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genius Sports Limited reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Shareholders owning at least 5% of Genius ordinary shares may be subject to regulatory obligations Q4, 2023
2.
Elevated interest rates and inflationary pressures could lead to persistently higher costs in our business, which may not always be offset with higher revenue. Q4, 2023
3.
Changes in gambling regulations, both in mature and emerging markets, and including regulatory authorities failing to legalize sports betting at the anticipated rate, could adversely affect our financial results, business operations, and prospects. This could include introduction of mandatory gambling supplier regimes resulting in additional license conditions or restrictions on us and/or our customers, including restrictions on gambling advertisements, restrictions on betting markets or types of betting including in play, player affordability limits, and player incentives controls. Q4, 2023
Genius Sports Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $1.69B | 14.77 | 11.76% | 4.33% | 24.83% | 73.88% | |
71 Outperform | $85.47B | 91.24 | 9.57% | ― | 30.96% | 167.38% | |
67 Neutral | $2.63B | 27.09 | 5.70% | ― | 26.61% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $1.85B | -11.37 | -22.20% | ― | 33.31% | -210.69% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
52 Neutral | $84.60M | -0.13 | 9301.18% | ― | -28.88% | -15473.93% | |
46 Neutral | $1.79B | -12.43 | 230.18% | ― | -34.62% | -4.18% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GENI
Genius Sports Limited
8.33
-3.34
-28.62%
TRVG
trivago
5.18
1.68
48.00%
OPRA
Opera
19.90
4.21
26.84%
SEAT
Vivid Seats
8.02
-17.66
-68.77%
DASH
DoorDash
207.27
-50.81
-19.69%
NN
NextNav
14.83
-0.81
-5.15%
Genius Sports Limited Corporate Events
Genius Sports Posts Higher Q1 2026 Revenue and Files Interim 6-K
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Genius Sports Limited filed a Form 6-K reporting unaudited interim financial statements for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and confirming its status as a foreign private issuer under Form 20-F. The filing shows a sizable balance ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.