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Genius Sports Limited (GENI)
NYSE:GENI
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Genius Sports Limited
(NYSE:GENI)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(4.57% Upside)
Positive Factors
Guidance and Financial Performance
GENI raised their FY guidance implying a 2H +7% ahead of consensus on revenue and +13% ahead on adj. EBITDA driven by better Betting Tech and Media Tech revenue.
Market Position
The company's core business is accelerating towards a duopoly with SRAD, which should help the long-term margin trajectory of the business.
Partnership and Exclusive Rights
Genius has expanded access to exclusive ad inventory through an extended NFL partnership, enhancing visibility and supporting future strategic updates.
Negative Factors
Contract and Regulatory Risks
Potential contract loss or unfavorable renewals, regulatory risk, sport season delay/lockout, and industry disruption could significantly impact GENI's margins and revenue.
Leadership and Management Changes
GENI announced CFO Nick Talor will be departing the company and appointed Bryan Castellani, most recently CFO of Warner Music Group.
Market and Industry Volatility
As the US betting market matures, GENI is well positioned to benefit as adoption of in-play betting continues to grow, yet industry disruption remains a concern.
Genius Sports Limited (GENI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.27B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth25.76%
EPS Growth27.05%
CountryUS
Employees1,850
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength92
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.21
Shares Outstanding238,441,220
10 Day Avg. Volume7,629,981
30 Day Avg. Volume5,475,452
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-105.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.41Price Target Upside11.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
Genius Sports Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGenius Sports Limited (GENI) is a leading provider of technology solutions, data products, and services to the sports, betting, and media industries. It operates in sectors such as sports leagues, sportsbooks, and digital media, offering critical data capture, distribution, and analysis services that enable real-time and accurate sports data. The company is known for its comprehensive suite of products that enhance fan engagement, optimize operations for sports organizations, and drive innovation in sports betting.
How the Company Makes MoneyGenius Sports makes money primarily through its data and technology services provided to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. The company earns revenue by licensing its sports data and technology platforms to sportsbooks and media entities, charging fees based on data usage, subscription models, and revenue-sharing agreements. Key revenue streams include partnerships with major sports leagues and federations, where Genius Sports acts as an official data provider, delivering exclusive data rights that are crucial for live betting and sports media content. Additionally, the company monetizes its technology solutions, which enhance the accuracy and speed of data collection and distribution. Significant partnerships with sports leagues and betting operators bolster its earnings by expanding its reach and solidifying its position in the global sports data market.
Genius Sports Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 5.65%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted significant growth in revenue and EBITDA, successful acquisition of major rights deals, and the expansion of key platforms, leading to raised guidance. While there were some challenges, such as increased stock-based compensation and initial media growth below expectations, the overall sentiment was positive, driven by strong financial performance and strategic achievements.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Achieved a 24% growth in group revenue and a record high group adjusted EBITDA margin of 29% in Q2 2025. Raised full-year guidance to $645 million in revenue and $135 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Major Rights Deals and Partnerships
Secured exclusive data and streaming rights to Serie A and European leagues, extending partnerships with the NFL, and signed a deal with Belgium Pro League for semi-automated offside technology.
Growth in Betting and Media Segments
Betting revenue increased 30% year-on-year to $88 million, while media revenue returned to growth, increasing 4% year-on-year to $19 million. Full-year media revenue growth is now expected to be at least 20%.
Expansion of GeniusIQ Platform
GeniusIQ platform showcased at the FIBA under 19 Basketball World Cup and expanded to soccer, providing solutions for leagues, teams, broadcasters, and advertisers.
CFO Transition
Announced the transition of CFO Nicholas Taylor and the appointment of Bryan Castellani, who brings experience from ESPN, Walt Disney Group, and Warner Music Group.
Negative Updates
Stock-Based Compensation Increase
Experienced a nonrecurring increase in stock-based compensation in Q2 due to the tranche of warrants issued to the NFL, impacting cash operating expenses.
Limited Immediate Upside in Media Segment
Despite positive developments, media revenue growth was initially below expectations, rebounding in Q2, with a forecasted growth of 20% for the full year.
Company Guidance
During the Genius Sports Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Results Call, the company reported a 24% increase in group revenue and a record high adjusted EBITDA margin of 29%. The company raised its full-year guidance, projecting group revenue of $645 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $135 million, driven by recent strategic partnerships and strong business momentum. Key highlights included winning exclusive data and streaming rights to Serie A and the European leagues, expanding its partnership with the NFL, and signing a major deal with PMG for advertising opportunities. The company expects media revenue growth of at least 20% for the year, up from initial estimates of low to mid-teens growth, and betting revenue to grow by about 30%. Genius Sports anticipates continued margin expansion and cash flow growth, targeting a long-term EBITDA margin of at least 30%.Genius Sports Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Genius Sports Limited shows strong revenue growth and financial stability with low leverage and solid equity ratios. However, profitability challenges and fluctuating cash flows pose risks. Continued focus on operational efficiency and cash flow management is crucial.Income Statement
Genius Sports Limited has shown a promising revenue growth trend with a TTM revenue increase of 4.75% over the previous year. Despite this, profitability remains a concern with a negative net profit margin of -8.54% and an EBIT margin of -10.22% TTM, indicating operational challenges. However, EBITDA margin improvement to 2.93% suggests better operational efficiency, which can be a positive sign if sustained.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, reflecting minimal leverage and financial stability. Equity ratio remains robust at 78.39%, signifying a solid equity base. However, consistent negative net income impacts return on equity, which stands at -6.43% TTM, highlighting profitability challenges.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a volatile free cash flow trend with a TTM decrease from prior periods, turning negative. However, an improvement in operating cash flow to net income ratio to -1.44 TTM indicates better cash flow management compared to net losses. The company needs to focus on consistent free cash flow generation to ensure long-term sustainability.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 558.44M | 510.89M | 412.98M | 341.03M | 262.74M | 149.74M |
| Gross Profit | 131.23M | 128.71M | 69.00M | 2.86M | -213.43M | 35.67M |
| EBITDA | -23.18M | 16.28M | 5.64M | -106.37M | -540.96M | 14.92M |
| Net Income | -77.85M | -63.04M | -85.53M | -184.99M | -592.75M | -30.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 927.78M | 792.27M | 775.72M | 773.34M | 887.08M | 391.00M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 221.56M | 110.21M | 100.33M | 122.72M | 222.38M | 11.78M |
| Total Debt | 30.57M | 7.51M | 14.70M | 21.24M | 88.00K | 93.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 207.63M | 219.86M | 202.71M | 196.52M | 180.91M | 530.43M |
| Stockholders Equity | 720.15M | 572.40M | 573.02M | 576.82M | 706.18M | -139.43M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.63M | 17.61M | -34.27M | -51.01M | -96.67M | -1.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 53.28M | 81.86M | 14.88M | -3.46M | -63.31M | 17.07M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -70.66M | -62.69M | -47.57M | -54.82M | -132.32M | -22.66M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 143.98M | -7.60M | -596.00K | -21.00K | 410.36M | 10.10M |
Genius Sports Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
12.91
Price Trends
10.72
Positive
10.41
Positive
9.69
Positive
Market Momentum
0.64
Negative
69.63
Neutral
95.27
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GENI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.65, above the 50-day MA of 10.72, and above the 200-day MA of 9.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GENI.
Genius Sports Limited Risk Analysis
Genius Sports Limited disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genius Sports Limited reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Shareholders owning at least 5% of Genius ordinary shares may be subject to regulatory obligations Q4, 2023
2.
Elevated interest rates and inflationary pressures could lead to persistently higher costs in our business, which may not always be offset with higher revenue. Q4, 2023
3.
Changes in gambling regulations, both in mature and emerging markets, and including regulatory authorities failing to legalize sports betting at the anticipated rate, could adversely affect our financial results, business operations, and prospects. This could include introduction of mandatory gambling supplier regimes resulting in additional license conditions or restrictions on us and/or our customers, including restrictions on gambling advertisements, restrictions on betting markets or types of betting including in play, player affordability limits, and player incentives controls. Q4, 2023
Genius Sports Limited Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $976.21M | 89.65 | 1.40% | ― | 12.01% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $1.96B | 14.09 | 20.13% | ― | 5.37% | 13.08% | |
60 Neutral | $3.27B | ― | -12.24% | ― | 25.76% | 27.05% | |
60 Neutral | $44.04B | 1.92 | -11.93% | 4.00% | 2.47% | -38.33% | |
57 Neutral | $174.75M | ― | -16.75% | ― | 19.67% | -1183.48% | |
51 Neutral | $2.82B | ― | -8.49% | ― | -23.79% | -138.59% | |
47 Neutral | $688.96M | 35.76 | -115.07% | ― | 116.58% | 62.29% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GENI
Genius Sports Limited
12.91
5.62
77.09%
YELP
Yelp
31.03
-2.79
-8.25%
IAC
IAC/InteractiveCorp.
35.46
-6.54
-15.57%
MAX
MediaAlpha
9.99
-6.99
-41.17%
TBLA
Taboola.com
3.32
0.07
2.15%
TEAD
Teads Holding
1.89
-2.97
-61.11%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.