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Greif Class B (GEF.B)
NYSE:GEF.B
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Greif Class B
(NYSE:GEF.B)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$90.00
▲(11.17% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and deleveraging, tempered by weak cash conversion and negative TTM free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, while valuation is reasonable but not clearly cheap. The latest earnings call adds support via reaffirmed guidance, margin improvement, and ongoing buybacks despite a muted demand backdrop.
Positive Factors
Improved leverage
A materially lower debt-to-equity (~0.43) indicates a healthier capital structure, reducing interest and refinancing risk. This durable improvement supports strategic flexibility for targeted growth CapEx and buybacks, and makes the company more resilient to cyclical downturns over months.
EBITDA and margin expansion
Sustained adjusted EBITDA growth and a 260bp margin expansion reflect operational leverage from price/mix and structural cost actions. If management sustains cost optimization and mix improvements, higher margins should bolster earnings quality and cash generation across the medium term.
Disciplined capital allocation (buybacks)
A large, disciplined repurchase program signals management confidence and shareholder-aligned capital allocation. If funded prudently alongside deleveraging and targeted growth CapEx, buybacks can sustainably enhance per-share returns and signal efficient use of excess capital over time.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion
Very low TTM operating cash flow and negative free cash flow are structural concerns: they limit ability to fund organic investments, service capital returns, or absorb shocks. Persistent weak cash conversion raises risk that earnings improvements may not translate into durable liquidity gains.
Muted demand / volume decline
Mid-single-digit volume declines across end markets point to a structurally muted demand backdrop. Reliance on price/mix to offset volumes is less durable than organic volume growth, and prolonged softness could cap revenue expansion and limit long-term margin and cash recovery.
Segment headwinds (metals & closures)
Persistent weakness in Durable Metal Solutions and high-single-digit declines in closures signal segment-specific structural pressures from industrial and chemical end markets. These pockets of weakness can drag consolidated margins and require product/market adjustments to restore sustainable growth.
Greif Class B (GEF.B) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.68B
Dividend Yield4.45%
Average Volume (3M)11.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.7
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth-17.63%
EPS Growth-80.32%
CountryUS
Employees14,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding21,534,058
10 Day Avg. Volume7,602
30 Day Avg. Volume11,276
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.97
Price to Sales (P/S)0.66
P/FCF Ratio-33.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.47
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Greif Class B Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGreif, Inc. engages in the production and sale of industrial packaging products and services worldwide. It operates in three segments: Global Industrial Packaging; Paper Packaging & Services; and Land Management. The Global Industrial Packaging segment produces and sells industrial packaging products, including steel, fiber, and plastic drums; rigid and flexible intermediate bulk containers; closure systems for industrial packaging products; transit protection products; water bottles, and remanufactured and reconditioned industrial containers; and various services, such as container life cycle management, filling, logistics, warehousing, and other packaging services to chemicals, paints and pigments, food and beverage, petroleum, industrial coatings, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, mineral product, and other industries. This segment also offers flexible intermediate bulk containers and related services to the agriculture, construction, and food industries. The Paper Packaging & Services segment produces and sells containerboards, corrugated sheets and containers, and other corrugated and specialty products to customers in the packaging, automotive, food, and building products markets; and produces and sells coated and uncoated recycled paperboard, and recycled fiber. This segment's corrugated container products are used to ship various products, such as home appliances, small machinery, grocery products, automotive components, books, and furniture, as well as various other applications. The Land Management segment engages in harvesting and regeneration of timber properties; and sale of timberland and special use properties. As of October 31, 2021, this segment owned approximately 175,000 acres of timber properties in the southeastern United States. The company was formerly known as Greif Bros. Corporation and changed its name to Greif, Inc. in 2001. Greif, Inc. was founded in 1877 and is headquartered in Delaware, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreif generates revenue primarily through the sale of its packaging products, which include steel and plastic drums, IBCs, corrugated containers, and flexible products. The company operates through several key segments, including Flexible Products and Services, Paper Packaging, and Steel and Plastic Containers. Each segment contributes to the overall revenue through direct sales to end-users as well as partnerships with distributors and retailers. Additionally, Greif benefits from its extensive global footprint, allowing it to serve multinational corporations and local businesses alike. The company also focuses on innovation and sustainability in its product offerings, which attracts customers seeking eco-friendly packaging solutions. Strategic acquisitions and collaborations further enhance Greif's market position and revenue potential.
Greif Class B Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights meaningful operational progress: strong adjusted EBITDA (+24%), a 260-basis-point margin expansion, 140% EPS growth, active share repurchases ($130M completed) and materially lower leverage (~1.2x). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance, reported meaningful run-rate cost savings ($65M with $80–$90M target) and articulated a focused capital allocation strategy including a new $300M buyback authorization and targeted growth CapEx. Offsetting items include muted demand with mid-single-digit volume declines (~5%), segment-specific softness (durable metals, closures, fiber converting), polymer margin pressure from mix and higher manufacturing costs, and Q1 being seasonally weak for free cash flow. Overall, the positive financial execution, margin recovery and balance sheet strength outweigh the demand-related headwinds and execution risks, giving a constructive outlook while acknowledging macro sensitivity.Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA increased 24% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 260 basis points to 12.3%, driven by price/cost improvements and structural cost optimization.
Earnings Per Share Improvement
Earnings per share rose approximately 140% year-over-year, supported by higher EBITDA and lower interest expense following deleveraging.
Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance
Company reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance of $630 million in adjusted EBITDA and $315 million in adjusted free cash flow, with an approximate 50% FCF conversion expectation.
Strong Free Cash Flow & Leverage Reduction
Leverage reduced to ~1.2x; company completed $130 million of a $150 million repurchase program in Q1 and expects to remain well below 2x leverage, enabling capital flexibility.
Large New Share Repurchase Authorization
Board approved a new $300 million share repurchase authorization to be executed in a disciplined manner; target to repurchase up to ~2% of shares outstanding annually.
Cost Optimization Progress
Run-rate cost optimization reached $65 million in early fiscal 2026 with a year-end run-rate commitment of $80–$90 million; significant SG&A and structural cost actions contributing to margin gains.
Portfolio Strength and Price/Mix Resilience
Total sales were roughly flat year-over-year despite mid-single-digit volume declines, reflecting strong price/mix and resilience of highest-performing products.
Capital Allocation Focused on High-Return Organic Growth
Maintenance CapEx materially reduced after containerboard sale, freeing capacity to fund targeted growth CapEx (notably small-format plastics) and margin-accretive organic investments.
New Technology Rollout (SIOC)
Proprietary SIOC barrier technology: first machine fully operational in France with three additional machines in production to be deployed this year; early orders received and optimistic long-term impact.
Negative Updates
Volume Weakness — Mid-Single Digit Decline
Aggregate volumes were down roughly mid-single digits in Q1 (management noted ~5% decline), reflecting a muted industrial backdrop and softer demand across several end markets.
Segment Pressure — Durable Metals and Closures
Durable Metal Solutions remained under pressure, particularly from chemical customers; Innovative Closure Solutions volumes declined high single digits, both weighing on near-term performance.
Sustainable Fiber Converting Declines & Mill Downtime
Sustainable Fiber converting volumes declined (mid-single digits) with URB mills taking ~14,000 tons of economic downtime in Q1; converting softness impacted fiber sales volumes.
Polymer Margin Compression from Mix and Manufacturing Costs
Polymer gross profit/margins were slightly lower year-over-year due mainly to adverse product mix (loss of higher-margin small and large plastics contribution) and higher manufacturing costs across the network.
Q1 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Lower Year-over-Year
Q1 adjusted free cash flow declined YoY primarily due to inclusion in the prior year of cash flow from recently divested businesses; Q1 is seasonally the weakest quarter for FCF.
Demand Environment Remains Muted
Company repeatedly described a cautious, muted industrial demand environment (notably in industrial and chemical end markets); housing recovery has not materialized to support metals exposure.
Timing Risk on Fiber Price/Cost Spread
Management noted the favorable price/cost dynamics in fiber will largely annualize in the second half of the year, which could create timing headwinds as contracts and pass-throughs align.
Workforce Reductions and Ongoing Structural Actions
Company cited headcount reductions (~220 professional headcount reductions) and continued structural cost actions—positive for margins but indicative of short-term restructuring impacts and execution risk.
Company Guidance
Greif reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, reiterating a low-end adjusted EBITDA target of $630 million and adjusted free cash flow of $315 million with an approximate 50% adjusted free cash flow conversion expectation; this confidence is supported by Q1 results that showed adjusted EBITDA up 24% year‑over‑year, a 12.3% adjusted EBITDA margin (up 260 basis points YoY) and EPS up 140% YoY. Management highlighted cost actions with a Q1 run‑rate cost optimization of $65 million and a year‑end run‑rate target of $80–$90 million, materially lower maintenance CapEx, and leverage reduced to 1.2x (expected to remain well below 2x). Capital allocation actions include completing $130 million of a $150 million repurchase (about $20 million remaining), a new $300 million board‑authorized repurchase program with a goal to buy up to ~2% of shares annually, and continued funding of targeted growth CapEx.Greif Class B Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability and balance sheet trends are constructive (TTM revenue up ~5.8%, strong net margin, and leverage improved with debt-to-equity ~0.43), but cash generation is a major concern: TTM operating cash flow is very low (~$34M) and free cash flow is negative (~-$143M), indicating weak cash conversion versus earnings.Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a return to top-line growth (revenue up ~5.8%) with solid profitability, including a strong net margin (~27%) and steady gross margin (~23%). That said, the margin profile is somewhat mixed versus the last annual period (EBITDA margin improved, but EBIT margin is not consistently strong across periods), and prior years show revenue declines (2023–2024), suggesting a less stable growth trajectory.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved meaningfully: debt-to-equity is down to ~0.43 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from elevated levels in 2021–2024 (often above 1.2), indicating a healthier capital structure. Equity is sizable (~$2.94B) against ~$5.50B in assets, and profitability on equity is strong in the most recent periods. Key watch-out: the business has historically carried higher leverage, so maintaining the recent deleveraging trend is important.77
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is the weak spot: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is very low (~$34M) and free cash flow is negative (~-$143M). Cash conversion versus earnings is poor (operating cash flow is only ~6% of net income, and free cash flow is negative relative to net income), a notable deterioration from 2022–2023 when free cash flow was solidly positive. This raises questions around working-capital swings, cash costs, or elevated investment needs.28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.29B | 4.33B | 5.22B | 6.35B | 5.56B |
| Gross Profit | 950.73M | 892.15M | 1.15B | 1.29B | 1.09B |
| EBITDA | 440.29M | 534.44M | 834.10M | 803.50M | 805.70M |
| Net Income | 840.00M | 265.96M | 359.20M | 376.70M | 390.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.77B | 6.65B | 5.96B | 5.47B | 5.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 256.70M | 197.70M | 180.90M | 147.10M | 124.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.57B | 3.07B | 2.54B | 2.18B | 2.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.72B | 4.40B | 3.85B | 3.66B | 4.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.91B | 2.08B | 1.95B | 1.76B | 1.51B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -85.20M | 169.50M | 435.90M | 474.50M | 248.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 58.60M | 356.00M | 649.50M | 657.50M | 396.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.64B | -658.30M | -670.20M | -28.20M | 46.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.69B | 324.30M | 69.70M | -531.00M | -422.90M |
Greif Class B Technical Analysis
Positive
80.96
Price Trends
76.83
Positive
69.05
Positive
66.22
Positive
Market Momentum
3.09
Negative
80.46
Negative
93.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEF.B, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 80.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.34, above the 50-day MA of 76.83, and above the 200-day MA of 66.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.46 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEF.B.
Greif Class B Risk Analysis
Greif Class B disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greif Class B reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greif Class B Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $6.17B | 15.57 | 40.42% | 1.94% | -1.22% | -0.76% | |
69 Neutral | $3.68B | 22.72 | 7.46% | 4.45% | -17.63% | -80.32% | |
69 Neutral | $782.57M | 28.10 | 9.92% | 2.80% | 0.26% | 78.05% | |
64 Neutral | $3.68B | 19.04 | 2.08% | 3.19% | -17.63% | -80.32% | |
63 Neutral | $4.76B | 4,974.23 | 6.39% | 4.33% | 8.31% | -99.39% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $2.66B | -346.27 | ― | 9.90% | 10.34% | 87.86% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GEF.B
Greif Class B
91.35
30.11
49.16%
GEF
Greif Class A
75.44
15.30
25.45%
MYE
Myers Industries
21.77
9.90
83.45%
SEE
Sealed Air
41.80
7.89
23.27%
SON
Sonoco Products
51.62
5.73
12.49%
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
4.84
2.44
102.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.