Greene County Bancorp (GCBC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $406.60M
• Dividend Yield: 1.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 16.04K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.74
• Revenue Growth: 13.16%
• EPS Growth: 37.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 189
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.60
• Shares Outstanding: 17,026,829
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,633
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,040
• PEG Ratio: 0.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.07
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $25.00 ▲(12.36% Upside)

The score is primarily driven by solid financial performance (revenue growth, healthy margins, and good cash conversion), supported by reasonable valuation. Technical indicators are mixed and slightly weak (negative MACD and mostly neutral momentum), which tempers the overall rating.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained top-line expansion over multiple years indicates successful loan and deposit growth in core markets. Durable revenue momentum supports scalable operating leverage, funds reinvestment in branch growth, and underpins long-term earnings resilience versus peers in regional banking.

Cash Generation

Strong TTM cash conversion shows earnings are largely backed by cash, supporting dividend capacity and capital deployment. Reliable FCF near net income signals earnings quality and long-term ability to fund loans, branches, and reserves without excessive external financing.

Improved Leverage & ROE

Lower leverage paired with solid ROE enhances financial flexibility and risk-bearing capacity. This structural improvement reduces downside volatility from funding stress, strengthens capital ratios, and supports sustainable lending and shareholder distributions over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Margin Normalization

Reverting from elevated margin peaks suggests structural pressure from competitive deposit costs or loan mix shifts. Persistent margin compression would reduce net interest income durability and constrain the bank’s ability to grow retained earnings and fund strategic initiatives.

Leverage Volatility

Inconsistent leverage history raises the risk that capital structure swings amplify earnings and funding costs during downturns. Volatile debt levels can force defensive capital actions, limit lending capacity, and reduce predictability of returns across economic cycles.

MHC Dividend Decision

A majority‑owner taking dividends changes capital allocation dynamics and can reduce retained capital available for organic growth or loan book expansion. Over time this limits reinvestment flexibility, may slow balance sheet growth, and affects minority shareholders' expectations on future capital deployment.

Greene County Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greene County Bancorp, Inc. operates as a holding company for The Bank of Greene County that provides various financial services in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, NOW accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, non-interest bearing checking accounts, and individual retirement accounts. The company's loan portfolio consists of residential, construction and land, and multifamily mortgage loans; commercial real estate mortgage loans; consumer loans, such as loans on new and used automobiles, personal loans, and home equity loans, as well as other consumer installment loans, including passbook loans, unsecured home improvement loans, recreational vehicle loans, and deposit account overdrafts; and commercial loans. As of June 30, 2021, it operated a network of 17 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1889 and is based in Catskill, New York. Greene County Bancorp, Inc. is a subsidiary of Greene County Bancorp, MHC.

How the Company Makes Money

Greene County Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and mortgages, which is a significant portion of its earnings. The company offers various loan products, including commercial loans, consumer loans, and residential mortgages, which are typically charged at higher interest rates than the rates paid on deposits. Additionally, GCBC earns fee income from account services, transaction fees, and other banking operations. Investment services and wealth management also contribute to the revenue stream, as the bank may charge fees for advisory services and manage investment portfolios for clients. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance customer engagement and drive deposits, further supporting the bank's financial growth.

Greene County Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and healthy current profitability with solid cash conversion support the score, but margin normalization from peak years and historical leverage variability add risk.

Income Statement

GCBC shows solid top-line momentum with revenue rising from $68.0M (FY 2021) to $132.9M (FY 2025) and $137.0M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Profitability remains healthy in the latest period (TTM net margin ~24.6%, EBIT margin ~27.8%), but margins are meaningfully lower than the unusually strong FY 2022–FY 2023 levels, indicating some normalization/pressure even as revenue continues to grow.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved versus the more stretched FY 2022–FY 2024 period (debt-to-equity moved from ~1.10 in FY 2022 and ~0.97 in FY 2024 to ~0.54 in FY 2025). Return on equity is consistently strong for the sector and improved to ~15.0% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The key watch item is that leverage has been volatile year-to-year, which can amplify earnings sensitivity in weaker operating environments.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is steady with operating cash flow of $32.8M and free cash flow of $31.8M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Free cash flow closely tracks earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.98 in TTM), which supports earnings quality. However, free cash flow growth has been choppy over time (negative in FY 2023–FY 2024, then rebounding), and the provided operating cash flow coverage figures appear inconsistent/very low in several years, which adds some uncertainty to debt-carrying capacity signals based on this dataset.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	137.04M	132.94M	117.57M	96.77M	75.58M	68.00M
Gross Profit	78.05M	74.04M	64.12M	74.44M	66.86M	58.84M
EBITDA	39.25M	35.73M	27.75M	36.70M	33.73M	28.39M
Net Income	33.75M	31.14M	24.77M	30.79M	27.99M	23.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.06B	3.04B	2.83B	2.70B	2.57B	2.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	471.27M	504.34M	543.23M	482.15M	481.18M	545.22M
Total Debt	54.09M	128.06M	199.14M	49.49M	173.01M	22.64M
Total Liabilities	2.81B	2.80B	2.62B	2.52B	2.41B	2.05B
Stockholders Equity	248.18M	238.84M	206.00M	183.28M	157.71M	149.58M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	31.84M	27.29M	23.40M	26.57M	34.30M	26.50M
Operating Cash Flow	32.78M	27.98M	24.91M	28.11M	35.35M	27.75M
Investing Cash Flow	-236.68M	-210.17M	-129.24M	661.00K	-471.18M	-417.14M
Financing Cash Flow	145.00M	174.87M	98.28M	98.67M	355.06M	498.70M

Greene County Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCBC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.50, below the 50-day MA of 22.94, and below the 200-day MA of 22.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCBC.

Greene County Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CWBC	74 Outperform	$475.94M	12.42	8.91%	2.12%	32.03%	170.90%
BMRC	70 Outperform	$441.16M	-12.10	2.24%	3.76%	23.93%	―
GCBC	69 Neutral	$406.60M	11.12	14.53%	1.63%	13.16%	37.40%
BSRR	69 Neutral	$500.60M	11.94	11.07%	3.03%	-0.65%	14.14%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CIVB	60 Neutral	$475.48M	9.33	9.73%	2.96%	3.49%	33.86%
BRBS	48 Neutral	$392.49M	41.13	1.29%	―	-15.07%	―

Greene County Bancorp Corporate Events

Greene County Bancorp Announces Quarterly Dividend Policy Shift

On January 21, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. announced that its board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share on its common stock for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, maintaining an annualized dividend rate of $0.40 per share, with the payout scheduled for shareholders of record on February 13, 2026 and payment expected on February 27, 2026. In a notable shift, Greene County Bancorp, MHC, the federal mutual holding company that owns 54.1% of the outstanding common shares and has historically waived its right to receive dividends, stated that for cash‑flow purposes it does not intend to waive receipt of this quarter’s dividend, signaling a change in capital allocation dynamics between the parent mutual holding company and minority shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GCBC) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greene County Bancorp stock, see the GCBC Stock Forecast page.

Greene County Bancorp Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting

On November 1, 2025, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where key matters such as the election of directors, ratification of the accounting firm, and advisory votes on executive compensation were voted upon. The meeting also featured a slideshow presentation on the company’s financial performance and business strategies, accessible on their website, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and strategic planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GCBC) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greene County Bancorp stock, see the GCBC Stock Forecast page.