Greene County Bancorp (GCBC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $382.93M
• Dividend Yield: 1.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 16.04K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: 13.16%
• EPS Growth: 37.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 189
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.60
• Shares Outstanding: 17,026,829
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,633
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,040
• PEG Ratio: 0.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.54
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.88
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(25.84% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/10/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/10/26

GCBC scores well primarily due to strong financial performance (healthy profitability, strong cash conversion, and currently conservative leverage). Technicals add support with the stock trading above key moving averages and positive MACD. Valuation is also supportive with a low P/E and a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

High and durable profitability

TTM net margin near 26% reflects sustained core profitability from lending and fees. Durable margins provide a buffer against cyclical credit losses and funding cost swings, supporting internal capital generation, dividend capacity, and reinvestment over the next several quarters.

Strong cash generation (FCF ~ net income)

Free cash flow roughly matching net income indicates high earnings quality and real cash conversion. Reliable cash generation supports shareholder distributions, organic growth, and loan book funding without heavy reliance on external financing, enhancing financial resilience.

Conservative balance sheet with solid ROE

A conservative capital structure paired with ~15% ROE signals efficient use of equity and room to absorb shocks. Growing equity bolsters loss-absorbing capacity and supports measured loan growth, preserving regulatory flexibility and credibility with depositors.

Negative Factors

Margin compression vs 2021–2022 peaks

Profitability has weakened from prior peaks as net and gross margins compressed versus 2021–2022. If competitive pressures, deposit costs, or asset yield erosion persist, sustained margin compression would materially reduce earnings power and slow capital build over multiple quarters.

Volatile leverage and uneven cash flow growth

Historic swings in leverage and uneven FCF growth complicate strategic planning and raise refinancing and capital-timing risk. Such variability can force reactive capital moves, constrain lending during stress periods, and undermine predictability of dividends and investments.

Mutual holding company will not waive dividend

The MHC's decision to take, rather than waive, its dividend materially alters capital allocation: a majority owner taking cash reduces retained capital available for loan growth or buffers. This structural shift limits internal flexibility and could constrain strategic investments over coming quarters.

Greene County Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greene County Bancorp, Inc. operates as a holding company for The Bank of Greene County that provides various financial services in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, NOW accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, non-interest bearing checking accounts, and individual retirement accounts. The company's loan portfolio consists of residential, construction and land, and multifamily mortgage loans; commercial real estate mortgage loans; consumer loans, such as loans on new and used automobiles, personal loans, and home equity loans, as well as other consumer installment loans, including passbook loans, unsecured home improvement loans, recreational vehicle loans, and deposit account overdrafts; and commercial loans. As of June 30, 2021, it operated a network of 17 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1889 and is based in Catskill, New York. Greene County Bancorp, Inc. is a subsidiary of Greene County Bancorp, MHC.

How the Company Makes Money

Greene County Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and mortgages, which is a significant portion of its earnings. The company offers various loan products, including commercial loans, consumer loans, and residential mortgages, which are typically charged at higher interest rates than the rates paid on deposits. Additionally, GCBC earns fee income from account services, transaction fees, and other banking operations. Investment services and wealth management also contribute to the revenue stream, as the bank may charge fees for advisory services and manage investment portfolios for clients. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance customer engagement and drive deposits, further supporting the bank's financial growth.

Greene County Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and earnings quality: TTM net margin is ~26% and free cash flow is ~97% of net income. Balance sheet is currently conservative with solid ROE (~15%). Main offsets are margin compression versus 2021–2022 and historical volatility in leverage and free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Profitability remains strong, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin around 26% and solid operating profitability. Revenue has grown steadily across the annual periods (roughly $68M in 2021 to $133M in 2025 annual), and TTM revenue growth is very strong. The main weakness is margin compression versus earlier years (notably lower gross and net margins than 2021–2022), indicating profitability is healthy but less favorable than peak levels.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative on the most recent TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) snapshot, with low debt relative to equity and a healthy return on equity (~15%). Equity has also grown versus prior years, supporting balance sheet strength. The key watch-out is that leverage has been volatile historically (debt-to-equity ranged from very low to above 1.0 in prior annual periods), which suggests the capital structure can shift meaningfully over time.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow closely matching net income (about 97%), supporting earnings quality. Free cash flow is also growing on the latest TTM and was generally positive across periods. Offsetting this, year-to-year free cash flow growth has been uneven (including declines in 2023 and 2024), indicating some variability in underlying cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	140.40M	132.94M	117.57M	96.77M	75.58M	68.00M
Gross Profit	82.60M	74.04M	64.12M	74.44M	66.86M	58.84M
EBITDA	42.46M	35.73M	27.75M	36.70M	33.73M	28.39M
Net Income	36.55M	31.14M	24.77M	30.79M	27.99M	23.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.15B	3.04B	2.83B	2.70B	2.57B	2.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	420.39M	504.34M	543.23M	482.15M	481.18M	545.22M
Total Debt	214.12M	128.06M	199.14M	49.49M	173.01M	22.64M
Total Liabilities	2.89B	2.80B	2.62B	2.52B	2.41B	2.05B
Stockholders Equity	258.27M	238.84M	206.00M	183.28M	157.71M	149.58M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	32.93M	27.29M	23.40M	26.57M	34.30M	26.50M
Operating Cash Flow	33.90M	27.98M	24.91M	28.11M	35.35M	27.75M
Investing Cash Flow	-210.18M	-210.17M	-129.24M	661.00K	-471.18M	-417.14M
Financing Cash Flow	133.92M	174.87M	98.28M	98.67M	355.06M	498.70M

Greene County Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 22.25
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCBC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.36, below the 50-day MA of 23.01, and below the 200-day MA of 22.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GCBC.

Greene County Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GCBC	79 Outperform	$382.93M	10.48	14.53%	1.63%	13.16%	37.40%
CWBC	74 Outperform	$448.35M	11.70	8.91%	2.12%	32.03%	170.90%
BMRC	70 Outperform	$415.89M	-11.80	2.24%	3.76%	23.93%	―
BSRR	69 Neutral	$485.77M	11.59	11.07%	3.03%	-0.65%	14.14%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CIVB	60 Neutral	$461.58M	9.05	9.73%	2.96%	3.49%	33.86%
BRBS	49 Neutral	$373.27M	39.53	1.29%	―	-15.07%	―

Greene County Bancorp Corporate Events

Greene County Bancorp Announces Quarterly Dividend Policy Shift

On January 21, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. announced that its board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share on its common stock for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, maintaining an annualized dividend rate of $0.40 per share, with the payout scheduled for shareholders of record on February 13, 2026 and payment expected on February 27, 2026. In a notable shift, Greene County Bancorp, MHC, the federal mutual holding company that owns 54.1% of the outstanding common shares and has historically waived its right to receive dividends, stated that for cash‑flow purposes it does not intend to waive receipt of this quarter’s dividend, signaling a change in capital allocation dynamics between the parent mutual holding company and minority shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GCBC) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greene County Bancorp stock, see the GCBC Stock Forecast page.