Greene County Bancorp (GCBC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $389.91M
• Dividend Yield: 1.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 16.04K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 13.16%
• EPS Growth: 37.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 189
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.60
• Shares Outstanding: 17,026,829
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,633
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,040
• PEG Ratio: 0.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.24
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.02
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(16.85% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance and an attractive valuation (low P/E), supported by positive recent corporate updates. These strengths are tempered by weaker near-term technical signals (negative MACD and sub-neutral RSI), suggesting limited momentum.

Positive Factors

Strong profitability

Sustained net margins (~26% TTM) and record six‑month net income indicate durable underlying profitability. This level of operating income supports ROE, funds internal investment and dividends, and provides a buffer against credit cycles, underpinning long‑term financial resilience.

Solid cash generation

Free cash flow converting at roughly 97% of net income signals high earnings quality and predictable internal funding. Reliable cash generation reduces dependency on external financing, supports dividends and branch growth, and enhances the bank’s capacity to absorb loan losses over time.

Local franchise & commercial mortgage strength

A focused upstate New York franchise with a leading commercial mortgage business and active branch expansion suggests durable competitive advantage. Deep local relationships drive deposit stickiness and commercial lending pipelines, supporting diversified, higher‑margin revenue over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Margin compression vs 2021–2022

Compression of gross and net margins relative to 2021–2022 reduces the earnings cushion and increases sensitivity to NIM shifts or funding cost rises. Sustained margin pressure would require higher revenue growth or efficiency gains to maintain returns and dividend capacity over the medium term.

Volatile historical leverage

Wide swings in debt‑to‑equity historically signal the capital structure can change materially, complicating planning. Periodic increases in leverage can strain regulatory ratios and funding costs, reducing strategic flexibility and making future growth or payouts more conditional on volatile balance sheet moves.

MHC dividend unpredictability

The mutual holding company owns 54.1% and its changing dividend waivers create uncertainty in capital available to public shareholders. Inconsistent MHC dividend behavior can materially alter cash retained or distributed, complicating capital planning, dividend predictability and investor expectations.

Greene County Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greene County Bancorp, Inc. operates as a holding company for The Bank of Greene County that provides various financial services in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, NOW accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, non-interest bearing checking accounts, and individual retirement accounts. The company's loan portfolio consists of residential, construction and land, and multifamily mortgage loans; commercial real estate mortgage loans; consumer loans, such as loans on new and used automobiles, personal loans, and home equity loans, as well as other consumer installment loans, including passbook loans, unsecured home improvement loans, recreational vehicle loans, and deposit account overdrafts; and commercial loans. As of June 30, 2021, it operated a network of 17 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1889 and is based in Catskill, New York. Greene County Bancorp, Inc. is a subsidiary of Greene County Bancorp, MHC.

How the Company Makes Money

GCBC primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by generating net interest income: it pays interest on customer deposits and other funding sources and earns interest on loans and interest-earning assets, with the spread between these rates (and the volume of earning assets) driving core earnings. A key revenue stream is interest income from lending activities, typically including consumer lending (such as auto and other installment loans), residential real estate lending, and commercial lending (including commercial real estate and business loans), along with interest income from investment securities and other short-term interest-earning balances. The company also earns noninterest income from banking-related fees and service charges (for example, deposit account and transaction-related fees and other service fees). Profitability is influenced by factors such as loan growth, credit performance (provision for credit losses), deposit mix and pricing, interest rate movements (which affect asset yields and funding costs), operating efficiency, and local economic conditions. Specific material partnerships contributing to earnings: null.

Greene County Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and earnings quality (TTM net margin ~26% and free cash flow ~97% of net income) with solid revenue growth. Offsets include margin compression versus 2021–2022 and historical volatility in leverage and free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Profitability remains strong, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin around 26% and solid operating profitability. Revenue has grown steadily across the annual periods (roughly $68M in 2021 to $133M in 2025 annual), and TTM revenue growth is very strong. The main weakness is margin compression versus earlier years (notably lower gross and net margins than 2021–2022), indicating profitability is healthy but less favorable than peak levels.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative on the most recent TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) snapshot, with low debt relative to equity and a healthy return on equity (~15%). Equity has also grown versus prior years, supporting balance sheet strength. The key watch-out is that leverage has been volatile historically (debt-to-equity ranged from very low to above 1.0 in prior annual periods), which suggests the capital structure can shift meaningfully over time.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow closely matching net income (about 97%), supporting earnings quality. Free cash flow is also growing on the latest TTM and was generally positive across periods. Offsetting this, year-to-year free cash flow growth has been uneven (including declines in 2023 and 2024), indicating some variability in underlying cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	140.40M	132.94M	117.57M	96.77M	75.58M	68.00M
Gross Profit	82.60M	74.04M	64.12M	74.44M	66.86M	58.84M
EBITDA	42.46M	35.73M	27.75M	36.70M	33.73M	28.39M
Net Income	36.55M	31.14M	24.77M	30.79M	27.99M	23.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.15B	3.04B	2.83B	2.70B	2.57B	2.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	420.39M	504.34M	543.23M	482.15M	481.18M	545.22M
Total Debt	214.12M	128.06M	199.14M	49.49M	173.01M	22.64M
Total Liabilities	2.89B	2.80B	2.62B	2.52B	2.41B	2.05B
Stockholders Equity	258.27M	238.84M	206.00M	183.28M	157.71M	149.58M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	32.93M	27.29M	23.40M	26.57M	34.30M	26.50M
Operating Cash Flow	33.90M	27.98M	24.91M	28.11M	35.35M	27.75M
Investing Cash Flow	-210.18M	-210.17M	-129.24M	661.00K	-471.18M	-417.14M
Financing Cash Flow	133.92M	174.87M	98.28M	98.67M	355.06M	498.70M

Greene County Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCBC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.31, below the 50-day MA of 22.72, and below the 200-day MA of 22.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCBC.

Greene County Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GCBC	73 Outperform	$389.91M	9.19	15.00%	1.63%	13.16%	37.40%
CWBC	70 Outperform	$428.44M	9.59	9.79%	2.12%	32.03%	170.90%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CIVB	64 Neutral	$453.07M	8.42	9.73%	2.96%	3.49%	33.86%
BSRR	64 Neutral	$427.90M	8.40	11.07%	3.03%	-0.65%	14.14%
BMRC	63 Neutral	$387.36M	9.53	2.24%	3.76%	23.93%	―
BRBS	49 Neutral	$360.79M	26.69	3.15%	―	-15.07%	―

Greene County Bancorp Corporate Events

Greene County Bancorp MHC Granted Dividend Waiver Approval

On March 19, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, MHC obtained nonobjection from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to waive its right to receive up to $0.64 per share in dividends paid by Greene County Bancorp, Inc. over the four quarters ending March 31, June 30, September 30, and December 31, 2026. The MHC has indicated that, subject to its cash flow needs, it intends to waive these dividends, a move that effectively preserves more cash for the company’s public shareholders and may support capital flexibility and shareholder returns during this period.

The company also flagged that its statements regarding dividend intentions are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including economic conditions, interest rate changes, regulatory factors, and competition. This underscores that while the waiver currently benefits minority shareholders and could strengthen the company’s capital position, the actual outcomes for stakeholders may vary depending on broader market and regulatory developments.

The most recent analyst rating on (GCBC) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greene County Bancorp stock, see the GCBC Stock Forecast page.

Greene County Bancorp Highlights Strategy and Record Profitability

In March 2026, Greene County Bancorp released an investor presentation ahead of first-quarter 2026 meetings with institutional investors to outline its strategy, recent performance and market positioning. The materials highlighted the company’s long-term growth in upstate New York, emphasizing its strong community presence, leading commercial mortgage franchise and branch expansion, including a new Clifton Park location opened in October 2025.

The presentation detailed record net income of $19.2 million for the six months ended December 31, 2025, a 6% year-over-year increase in assets to roughly $3.1 billion, and a sharply improved net interest margin, underscoring resilient profitability and operating efficiency. Greene County Bancorp also pointed to higher shareholder equity, disciplined credit quality and an 11.1% dividend increase announced in July 2025, signaling confidence in its capital position and its ability to continue creating value for investors and local stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GCBC) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greene County Bancorp stock, see the GCBC Stock Forecast page.

Greene County Bancorp Announces Quarterly Dividend Policy Shift

On January 21, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. announced that its board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share on its common stock for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, maintaining an annualized dividend rate of $0.40 per share, with the payout scheduled for shareholders of record on February 13, 2026 and payment expected on February 27, 2026. In a notable shift, Greene County Bancorp, MHC, the federal mutual holding company that owns 54.1% of the outstanding common shares and has historically waived its right to receive dividends, stated that for cash‑flow purposes it does not intend to waive receipt of this quarter’s dividend, signaling a change in capital allocation dynamics between the parent mutual holding company and minority shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GCBC) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greene County Bancorp stock, see the GCBC Stock Forecast page.