Golub Capital Bdc (GBDC)
NASDAQ:GBDC
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Golub Capital Bdc
(NASDAQ:GBDC)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
â–²(6.22% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is primarily held back by uneven cash-flow generation, meaningful leverage/credit-cycle sensitivity, and a cautious 2026 outlook that included a base dividend reset and modestly weaker credit/NAV trends. Offsetting factors are strong reported profitability, reasonable valuation with a very high yield, and mildly improving technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Portfolio Quality & Diversification
A highly granular, top-rated portfolio with low nonaccruals and limited single-borrower exposure reduces idiosyncratic risk and supports stable interest income over cycles. This structure helps preserve NAV and smooths earnings through localized credit events, aiding durability of cash generation.
Negative Factors
Volatile Cash Generation
Inconsistent operating and free cash flow history signals timing-driven earnings conversion and potential reliance on financing or asset sales to meet distributions. This volatility complicates dividend planning and constrains reinvestment capacity, increasing sensitivity to deal flow and repayment cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Portfolio Quality & Diversification
A highly granular, top-rated portfolio with low nonaccruals and limited single-borrower exposure reduces idiosyncratic risk and supports stable interest income over cycles. This structure helps preserve NAV and smooths earnings through localized credit events, aiding durability of cash generation.
Read all positive factors
Golub Capital Bdc (GBDC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.35B
Dividend Yield11.7%
Average Volume (3M)2.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth24.12%
EPS Growth1.09%
CountryUS
Employees875
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.38
Shares Outstanding263,228,180
10 Day Avg. Volume2,319,753
30 Day Avg. Volume2,572,116
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)5.29
P/FCF Ratio-32.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit22.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.60Price Target Upside14.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$802.74M
Golub Capital Bdc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company. It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are...
How the Company Makes Money
GBDC makes money primarily from investment income earned on its portfolio of debt investments in middle-market companies. The largest recurring revenue stream is interest income on senior secured loans (often floating-rate), which is driven by the...
Golub Capital Bdc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: GBDC delivered resilient adjusted earnings and demonstrated portfolio quality, liquidity and disciplined capital management despite significant market headwinds. Offsetting positives were meaningful rate and spread compression, a modest NAV decline, increased nonaccruals and a reset lower in the base dividend. Management signaled preparedness for a challenging 2026 and emphasized selective underwriting and loss minimization.Positive Updates
Solid Adjusted Earnings and NII
Adjusted net investment income (NII) per share of $0.38 (adjusted NII ROE of 10.2%) and adjusted net income per share of $0.25 (adjusted ROE of 6.7%) for the quarter, demonstrating resilience of earnings given the challenging market backdrop.
Negative Updates
Base Dividend Reset (Reduction)
Board reset the company's quarterly base dividend from the recent $0.39 paid level to $0.33 per share (a reduction of $0.06, ~15.4% vs the prior-quarter distribution), reflecting the impact of persistent industry headwinds and a shift to a more conservative base payout.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Adjusted Earnings and NII
Adjusted net investment income (NII) per share of $0.38 (adjusted NII ROE of 10.2%) and adjusted net income per share of $0.25 (adjusted ROE of 6.7%) for the quarter, demonstrating resilience of earnings given the challenging market backdrop.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GBDC said it is planning for a challenging 2026 as the four industry headwinds persist and the Board reset the quarterly base dividend to $0.33/share (≈9% of NAV) while keeping a variable supplemental policy to distribute 50% of earnings above $0.33; this quarter’s results included adjusted NII of $0.38/share (adjusted NII ROE 10.2%), adjusted net income $0.25/share (adjusted ROE 6.7%), a $0.39/share distribution paid, adjusted net realized/unrealized losses of $0.13/share, and NAV of $14.84 (repurchases in 2025: 5.5M shares or $76.5M, ~$0.01/share NAV accretion). Key portfolio and balance-sheet metrics: $8.6B portfolio (‑1.5% QoQ), investment income yield 10% (‑40 bps), cost of debt 5.4% (‑20 bps), net investment spread 4.6%, nonaccruals ~0.8% (80 bps), 92% first‑lien floating loans, one‑stop ~87%, average position ~20 bps across 420 companies (largest borrower 1.6%, top 10 = 12%), liquidity ≈$1.3B, net debt/equity 1.23x (target 0.85–1.25x), weighted average rate on new investments 8.6% (‑30 bps), repayments 9.4%, net funds growth ‑$130M, closed 3.1% of reviewed deals at ~43% LTV, led 96% of transactions, 18 new borrowers, median originations EBITDA $81M.Golub Capital Bdc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 629.60M | 688.46M | 475.73M | 427.66M | 254.66M | 415.20M |
| Gross Profit | 362.27M | 407.83M | 272.57M | 284.43M | 165.28M | 349.46M |
| EBITDA | 330.07M | 375.61M | 274.36M | 262.21M | 154.67M | 340.82M |
| Net Income | 330.58M | 376.65M | 273.79M | 258.63M | 153.44M | 340.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.89B | 8.98B | 8.71B | 5.73B | 5.68B | 5.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.45M | 23.62M | 131.16M | 69.83M | 124.14M | 181.09M |
| Total Debt | 4.88B | 4.90B | 4.60B | 3.12B | 3.08B | 2.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.98B | 5.00B | 4.69B | 3.19B | 3.14B | 2.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.91B | 3.98B | 4.01B | 2.55B | 2.54B | 2.58B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 473.15M | -113.59M | 343.91M | 195.37M | -416.46M | -306.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 473.15M | -113.59M | 343.91M | 195.37M | -416.46M | -306.05M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | -533.76M | -131.59M | -124.24M | -235.55M | 353.13M | 366.85M |
Golub Capital Bdc Technical Analysis
Positive
12.71
Price Trends
12.29
Positive
12.77
Negative
13.11
Negative
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
56.26
Neutral
54.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBDC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.52, above the 50-day MA of 12.29, and below the 200-day MA of 13.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GBDC.
Golub Capital Bdc Risk Analysis
Golub Capital Bdc disclosed 107 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Golub Capital Bdc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Golub Capital Bdc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $1.01B | 8.99 | 8.03% | 17.34% | -16.58% | 65.24% | |
65 Neutral | $4.78B | 10.94 | 16.94% | 7.17% | 11.60% | 9.38% | |
63 Neutral | $3.35B | 13.71 | 8.30% | 11.70% | 24.12% | 1.09% | |
62 Neutral | $2.75B | 9.36 | 15.88% | 10.00% | -15.32% | -12.29% | |
59 Neutral | $1.72B | 12.06 | 10.58% | 9.64% | -6.44% | -1.18% | |
56 Neutral | $2.84B | -9.10 | 0.18% | 18.52% | -13.67% | -48.49% |
* Financial Sector Average
GBDC
Golub Capital Bdc
12.71
0.41
3.30%
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
14.95
-0.37
-2.41%
MAIN
Main Street Capital
53.08
3.66
7.41%
TSLX
Sixth Street Specialty Lending
18.06
-0.13
-0.69%
FSK
FS KKR Capital
10.13
-5.82
-36.47%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
8.97
0.38
4.45%
Golub Capital Bdc Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Golub Capital BDC Shareholders Elect Directors, Ratify Auditor
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, at which shareholders elected two Class I directors, David B. Golub and Anita J. Rival, to serve until the 2029 annual meeting or until their successors are duly...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.