Golub Capital Bdc (GBDC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.44B
• Dividend Yield: 11.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.77M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 24.12%
• EPS Growth: 1.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 875
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 263,467,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,990,178
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,767,157
• PEG Ratio: 2.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.54
• P/FCF Ratio: -32.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.93
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 14.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(7.20% Upside)

The score is anchored by strong profitability and constructive earnings-call credit quality/debt-cost execution, but it is held back by volatile cash flow and balance-sheet leverage/transparency concerns. Attractive valuation and dividend yield help, while weak technical momentum limits near-term outlook.

Positive Factors

High Profitability & Revenue Growth

GBDC’s exceptionally high gross and operating margins reflect a low-cost investment platform that captures interest income efficiently. Coupled with multi-year revenue expansion, this supports durable earnings power and the firm’s ability to fund dividends and reinvest in origination capabilities over the next several quarters.

Strong Credit Quality

Extremely low nonaccruals and a large share of investments in top internal rating categories indicate disciplined underwriting and portfolio resilience. This structural credit strength reduces expected loan losses, supports stable interest income, and improves long-term capital preservation for shareholders.

Effective Debt & Cost Management

Lowered funding costs materially expand net interest margins on floating-rate assets and demonstrate access to favorable capital markets. Sustainable borrowing-cost advantages enhance spread capture, support distributable income, and give management flexibility to compete on pricing and originate selectively.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage & Reporting Gaps

Meaningful leverage is inherent to the BDC model but increases sensitivity to credit and market shocks. Mixed debt reporting undermines transparency, complicates risk assessment and may constrain strategic flexibility if capital markets tighten or asset valuations deteriorate over the next several months.

Volatile Cash Generation

Inconsistent operating cash flow and volatile free cash flow create recurring uncertainty about internal funding for dividends and investment activity. This timing-driven variability increases reliance on external financing and makes stable capital allocation and dividend policy harder to sustain over medium term.

Industry Credit & Spread Headwinds

A tougher credit cycle with higher defaults and spread compression erodes yield on new originations and raises expected credit losses. For a middle‑market lender like GBDC, persistent industry stress can compress net yields, pressure NAV and dividends, and limit growth in originations over coming quarters.

Golub Capital Bdc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company. It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are, in most cases, sponsored by private equity investors. It typically invests in diversified consumer services, automobiles, healthcare technology, insurance, health care equipment and supplies, hotels, restaurants and leisure, healthcare providers and services, IT services and specialty retails. It seeks to invest in the United States. It primarily invests in first lien traditional senior debt, first lien one stop, junior debt and equity, senior secured, one stop, unitranche, second lien, subordinated and mezzanine loans of middle-market companies, and warrants.

How the Company Makes Money

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. makes money primarily through interest income generated from its portfolio of debt investments. The company's revenue model is centered around providing loans to middle-market businesses, which typically have revenues between $10 million and $100 million. GBDC earns interest income from these loans, which are often structured with favorable terms to ensure consistent cash flow. Additionally, the firm may generate fee income from originating and managing these loans. Significant partnerships with private equity firms and other financial institutions can contribute to its deal flow and investment opportunities, enhancing its ability to generate returns for its shareholders. The company's focus on senior secured loans helps mitigate risk, further contributing to its earnings stability.

Golub Capital Bdc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is strong (very high gross/operating margins and solid net margin) and revenue has grown over time, but cash flow is volatile with multiple years of negative operating/free cash flow. Balance-sheet leverage is meaningful and there is inconsistency in reported debt data, which reduces confidence in balance-sheet quality.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong across periods, with very high TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross and operating margins (~90% gross; ~64% operating) and solid net margin (~54%). Revenue has expanded meaningfully over the last several years (notably strong growth in 2021 and continued growth into TTM), supporting earnings power. The main offset is volatility in growth rates year-to-year (including a revenue decline in 2022 and a slower growth year in 2024), which reduces consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a leveraged profile with debt-to-equity generally around ~1.1–1.23, which is typical for the structure but still increases sensitivity to credit/market conditions. Equity and assets have grown versus earlier years, and returns on equity are healthy (roughly ~6% to ~13% historically; ~9–10% recently), supporting the business model. A key concern is mixed reporting on debt (TTM shows total debt as 0 while leverage ratios remain elevated), creating uncertainty around the true debt load and limiting confidence in balance-sheet quality.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent. Operating cash flow swings from materially negative in several years (2021, 2022, and 2025 annual) to strongly positive in 2023, 2024, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Free cash flow tracks operating cash flow and shows sharp volatility, including a large negative growth rate in TTM, which signals uneven cash conversion and potentially timing-driven fluctuations. The positive TTM operating cash flow is a near-term positive, but the history of negative periods keeps the score moderate.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	802.73M	475.73M	427.66M	254.66M	415.20M
Gross Profit	629.31M	272.57M	284.43M	165.28M	349.46M
EBITDA	661.42M	274.36M	262.21M	154.67M	340.82M
Net Income	376.65M	273.79M	258.63M	153.44M	340.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.98B	8.71B	5.73B	5.68B	5.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	100.76M	131.16M	69.83M	124.14M	181.09M
Total Debt	4.90B	4.60B	3.12B	3.08B	2.55B
Total Liabilities	5.00B	4.69B	3.19B	3.14B	2.58B
Stockholders Equity	3.98B	4.01B	2.55B	2.54B	2.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-113.59M	343.91M	195.37M	-416.46M	-306.05M
Operating Cash Flow	-113.59M	343.91M	195.37M	-416.46M	-306.05M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-131.59M	-124.24M	-235.55M	353.13M	366.85M

Golub Capital Bdc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.06
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBDC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.57, below the 50-day MA of 13.61, and below the 200-day MA of 13.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.13 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBDC.

Golub Capital Bdc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HTGC	79 Outperform	$3.09B	10.19	15.21%	10.00%	-15.32%	-12.29%
MAIN	77 Outperform	$5.50B	10.29	19.07%	7.17%	11.60%	9.38%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.07B	8.07	8.75%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
GBDC	65 Neutral	$3.44B	9.03	9.42%	11.70%	24.12%	1.09%
TSLX	64 Neutral	$1.97B	10.20	11.91%	9.64%	-6.44%	-1.18%
FSK	60 Neutral	$3.72B	13.54	4.24%	18.52%	-13.67%	-48.49%