Golub Capital Bdc (GBDC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.94B
• Dividend Yield: 11.25%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: 32.19%
• EPS Growth: -13.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 875
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 266,376,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,030,022
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,020,226
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.00
• 1Y Price Target: $15.75
• Price Target Upside: 6.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

Golub Capital Bdc shows strong financial performance with impressive revenue and profit growth, supported by a solid balance sheet. The positive outlook from the earnings call further boosts confidence, despite challenges in cash flow management and technical indicators. The stock's valuation is appealing, with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield, enhancing its attractiveness to income-focused investors.

Positive Factors

Credit Quality

Credit quality has strengthened, with non-accruals improving to 0.9% of investments.

Funding Costs

Funding costs should improve prospectively since GBDC refinanced its liability stack, reducing the overall cost of debt.

Profitability

Overall profitability was solid with a 11.1% GAAP ROE.

Negative Factors

Earnings Forecast

Lowering core EPS forecast due to lower spread income plus lower base rates in 2026 given the economic outlook.

Earnings Performance

Adjusted Core EPS was reported below expectations, impacted by non-cash interest expense from interest rate swaps.

Golub Capital Bdc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company. It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are, in most cases, sponsored by private equity investors. It typically invests in diversified consumer services, automobiles, healthcare technology, insurance, health care equipment and supplies, hotels, restaurants and leisure, healthcare providers and services, IT services and specialty retails. It seeks to invest in the United States. It primarily invests in first lien traditional senior debt, first lien one stop, junior debt and equity, senior secured, one stop, unitranche, second lien, subordinated and mezzanine loans of middle-market companies, and warrants.

How the Company Makes Money

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. makes money primarily through interest income generated from its portfolio of debt investments. The company's revenue model is centered around providing loans to middle-market businesses, which typically have revenues between $10 million and $100 million. GBDC earns interest income from these loans, which are often structured with favorable terms to ensure consistent cash flow. Additionally, the firm may generate fee income from originating and managing these loans. Significant partnerships with private equity firms and other financial institutions can contribute to its deal flow and investment opportunities, enhancing its ability to generate returns for its shareholders. The company's focus on senior secured loans helps mitigate risk, further contributing to its earnings stability.

Golub Capital Bdc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Golub Capital Bdc demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth with a 100% gross profit margin and a 37.8% net profit margin. The balance sheet is solid with no debt and a strong equity ratio, but cash flow management needs improvement due to negative free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Golub Capital Bdc displays strong revenue growth and profitability. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue shows a substantial increase compared to previous periods, with a notable Gross Profit Margin of 100%, indicating efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin is robust at 37.8%, and the EBIT Margin stands at 87.8%, reflecting excellent operational efficiency. Revenue growth from the previous year is impressive at 20.2%, showing positive momentum in the business.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Golub Capital Bdc is relatively strong with a high Equity Ratio of 44.6%, indicating a stable financial structure. The company has eliminated its total debt, resulting in a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0, showcasing prudent financial management. The Return on Equity is solid at 7.3%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholders' equity. However, the rapid growth in assets might pose future financing challenges.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates mixed results. While the Free Cash Flow has decreased significantly, showing a negative growth rate, the Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is negative, suggesting cash flow challenges. However, the company has improved its cash reserves, and the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is currently negative, indicating the need for better cash utilization strategies.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	727.08M	475.73M	603.09M	387.80M	307.13M	294.56M
Gross Profit	474.65M	272.57M	603.09M	387.80M	307.13M	298.95M
EBITDA	421.81M	274.36M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	375.56M	273.79M	258.63M	153.44M	340.28M	54.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.24B	8.71B	5.73B	5.68B	5.16B	4.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	170.87M	131.16M	69.83M	124.14M	181.09M	26.30M
Total Debt	0.00	4.60B	3.12B	3.08B	2.55B	2.02B
Total Liabilities	5.24B	4.69B	3.19B	3.14B	2.58B	2.05B
Stockholders Equity	4.00B	4.01B	2.55B	2.54B	2.58B	2.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-579.74M	343.91M	195.37M	-416.46M	-306.05M	187.68M
Operating Cash Flow	-579.74M	343.91M	195.37M	-416.46M	-306.05M	187.68M
Investing Cash Flow	1.13B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	294.40M	-124.24M	-235.55M	353.13M	366.85M	-87.81M

Golub Capital Bdc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBDC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.76, below the 50-day MA of 14.89, and above the 200-day MA of 14.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBDC.

Golub Capital Bdc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSLX	76 Outperform	$2.32B	12.27	11.66%	8.44%	-6.29%	-15.46%
MAIN	74 Outperform	$5.96B	10.97	19.65%	6.30%	28.32%	13.63%
GBDC	71 Outperform	$3.94B	10.45	9.33%	11.25%	32.19%	-13.72%
GSBD	71 Outperform	$1.31B	9.26	9.36%	15.23%	-55.16%	47.09%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.81B	11.87	10.24%	3.74%	9.75%	1.30%
HTGC	64 Neutral	$3.52B	12.85	12.81%	9.83%	-15.88%	-13.91%
FSK	58 Neutral	$5.05B	23.16	3.39%	15.44%	-8.32%	-65.56%

Golub Capital Bdc Corporate Events

Golub Capital BDC Restructures Debt to Enhance Flexibility

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. has unveiled a strategic shift in its debt funding structure, completing a $2.2 billion debt securitization to lower borrowing costs and enhance investment flexibility. By redeeming existing debt and adjusting bank lending relationships, GBDC aims to extend debt maturities and increase liquidity for new investments, benefiting its shareholders with reduced costs and sustained credit ratings. This move highlights Golub Capital’s commitment to delivering market-leading returns and maintaining its leadership in the debt capital markets.