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Golub Capital Bdc
(NASDAQ:GBDC)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
â–²(9.55% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
Overall score reflects mixed fundamentals with notable volatility and some data inconsistency around leverage, partially offset by strong recent cash flow and a supportive (but cautious) earnings update. Technicals are modestly positive with the price above key moving averages, and valuation is helped by a high dividend yield, though the P/E is only mid-range.
Positive Factors
Diversified, Granular Portfolio
A large, highly granular portfolio across 424 borrowers meaningfully reduces idiosyncratic risk and concentration volatility. Sustained diversification supports more predictable interest income and loss absorption over months, improving durability of NII through borrower-level shocks.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage & Reporting Inconsistency
Historic leverage near 1.0–1.23x amplifies both returns and downside in stressed scenarios; the conflicting TTM debt reporting raises uncertainty about true balance-sheet posture. That uncertainty complicates risk assessment and capital planning over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified, Granular Portfolio
A large, highly granular portfolio across 424 borrowers meaningfully reduces idiosyncratic risk and concentration volatility. Sustained diversification supports more predictable interest income and loss absorption over months, improving durability of NII through borrower-level shocks.
Read all positive factors
Golub Capital Bdc (GBDC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.34B
Dividend Yield11.22%
Average Volume (3M)1.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.7
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth6.69%
EPS Growth-31.63%
CountryUS
Employees875
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.55
Shares Outstanding260,495,180
10 Day Avg. Volume894,522
30 Day Avg. Volume1,126,283
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)4.18
P/FCF Ratio-32.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.63Price Target Upside6.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$776.71M
Golub Capital Bdc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) operates as an externally managed, closed-end investment company, specializing as a business development company (BDC) with a non-diversified portfolio management strategy. The firm provides financing through debt in...
How the Company Makes Money
GBDC makes money primarily from the investment income it earns on its portfolio of loans and other investments, funded through a combination of its own equity capital and borrowed money (leverage).
Key revenue streams and drivers include:
1) Inte...
Golub Capital Bdc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed measured improvement quarter-over-quarter with solid liquidity, low nonaccruals, stable NII, attractive funding costs and portfolio diversification—while acknowledging persistent industry-wide elevated credit stress, modest NAV decline, selective realized losses and constrained near-term new deployment. Management emphasized resilience in the core first-lien portfolio, active risk monitoring (including a software/AI re-underwrite) and a disciplined capital allocation posture (repurchases, deleveraging). Given improvements and strong balance-sheet metrics offsetting contained credit issues, the tone is constructive but cautious.Positive Updates
Quarterly Earnings Improvement
Adjusted net income per share of $0.22 vs. a $0.18 per share loss last quarter; adjusted net realized and unrealized losses fell from $0.52 to $0.12 per share (≈77% reduction). Annualized adjusted ROE for the quarter was 6.2%.
Negative Updates
Quarterly ROE Below Long-Term Performance
Quarterly annualized adjusted ROE of 6.2% is meaningfully below GBDC's ~9.4% net IRR since IPO and below its multi-year average, signaling reduced near-term returns relative to long-term track record.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Earnings Improvement
Adjusted net income per share of $0.22 vs. a $0.18 per share loss last quarter; adjusted net realized and unrealized losses fell from $0.52 to $0.12 per share (≈77% reduction). Annualized adjusted ROE for the quarter was 6.2%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized continued elevated credit stress and a gradually more lender‑friendly market (spreads on new deals up roughly 25–50 bps), with an expectation of continued dispersion across managers but that GBDC should outperform given its first‑lien focus and limited junior debt exposure; key metrics cited included adjusted net income per share of $0.22 (annualized adjusted ROE 6.2%), adjusted NII of $0.34 per share (adjusted NII ROE 9.5%) which covered the $0.33 distribution, adjusted net realized & unrealized losses of $0.12 per share, NAV of $14.25 (down from $14.35), portfolio fair value $8.2B across 424 borrowers, net assets $3.7B, outstanding debt $4.6B, net debt‑to‑equity 1.23x (average leverage 1.23x), investment income yield 9.9%, cost of debt 5.3%, net investment spread 4.6%, nonaccruals 1.9% of portfolio, ~87% of assets in top 2 internal ratings (ratings 3 = 10.6%, ratings 1–2 = 2.8%), $13M of new commitments in the quarter (weighted average rate 8.9%, spread 5.2%), $2B of liquidity, $500M 5‑year notes swapped to SOFR+218bps, revolver extended to July 2031 (~$2B commitment, accordion to $3B), share repurchases (1.1M shares at $12.90, ~10% discount) and Golub affiliates holding ~8% of shares — all of which underpin a cautious but constructive outlook for recovering M&A activity and improving new‑loan economics.Golub Capital Bdc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 715.22M | 870.78M | 611.05M | 572.53M | 346.28M | 415.20M |
| Gross Profit | 532.07M | 709.60M | 498.70M | 427.66M | 255.58M | 349.46M |
| EBITDA | 393.65M | 687.42M | 478.05M | 426.01M | 244.16M | 340.82M |
| Net Income | 146.71M | 376.13M | 273.79M | 272.03M | 155.57M | 340.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.34B | 8.98B | 8.71B | 5.73B | 5.68B | 5.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.96M | 23.62M | 131.16M | 69.83M | 124.14M | 181.09M |
| Total Debt | 4.54B | 4.90B | 4.60B | 3.12B | 3.08B | 2.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.63B | 5.00B | 4.69B | 3.19B | 3.14B | 2.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.70B | 3.98B | 4.01B | 2.55B | 2.54B | 2.58B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 919.64M | -113.59M | 343.91M | 195.37M | -416.46M | -306.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 919.64M | -113.59M | 343.91M | 195.37M | -416.46M | -306.05M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 781.54M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -131.59M | -124.24M | -235.55M | 353.13M | 366.85M |
Golub Capital Bdc Technical Analysis
Positive
12.78
Price Trends
12.81
Positive
12.71
Positive
12.66
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
56.18
Neutral
72.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBDC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.95, below the 50-day MA of 12.81, and above the 200-day MA of 12.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GBDC.
Golub Capital Bdc Risk Analysis
Golub Capital Bdc disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Golub Capital Bdc reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Golub Capital Bdc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $5.06B | 11.45 | 14.32% | 8.04% | 16.23% | -19.30% | |
68 Neutral | $3.07B | 7.86 | 17.21% | 10.17% | 44.00% | 36.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $1.63B | 14.92 | 0.03% | 11.30% | -29.32% | -39.45% | |
62 Neutral | $3.34B | 16.66 | 3.82% | 11.27% | 6.69% | -31.63% | |
53 Neutral | $2.96B | -5.37 | -9.39% | 21.64% | -38.13% | -203.38% | |
52 Neutral | $969.22M | 13.45 | 5.14% | 17.78% | 14.92% | 48.21% |
* Financial Sector Average
GBDC
Golub Capital Bdc
12.81
-0.47
-3.51%
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
16.69
-0.75
-4.29%
MAIN
Main Street Capital
57.15
-2.41
-4.05%
TSLX
Sixth Street Specialty Lending
18.08
-3.75
-17.18%
FSK
FS KKR Capital
11.04
-5.95
-35.01%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
8.83
-0.75
-7.83%
Golub Capital Bdc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Golub Capital BDC Extends Revolving Credit Facility Maturity
Positive
Jul 9, 2026
On July 2, 2026, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. amended and restated its senior secured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank and a syndicate of lenders, extending the revolving period to July 2, 2030 and the maturity date to July 2, 2031 fo...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Golub Capital BDC Completes $500 Million Notes Offering
Positive
May 27, 2026
On May 27, 2026, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. closed a $500 million public offering of 6.250% Notes due June 1, 2031, issued under a supplemental indenture with U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association. The notes, which pay interest semi-annually ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Golub Capital BDC Announces New $500 Million Notes Offering
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of major investment banks to issue and sell $500 million of 6.250% notes due 2031. The offering, conducted under the company’s existing shelf re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.