Golub Capital Bdc (GBDC)
NASDAQ:GBDC
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Golub Capital Bdc
(NASDAQ:GBDC)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$13.00
â–¼(-4.62% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker technical momentum and only moderate financial quality due to leverage and volatile cash-flow history. Offsetting factors include strong underlying profitability and a high dividend yield, while the earnings call was mixed—stable credit/liquidity and distribution coverage, but GAAP/NAV pressure from spread-driven mark-to-market losses and continued macro uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Solid Profitability
GBDC exhibits durable core profitability with a TTM net margin around 27% and consistently positive earnings. That level of recurring profitability supports distributions, funds reinvestment and gives management flexibility to absorb cyclical loan losses while preserving core economic returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
GBDC operates with structurally higher leverage (net debt/equity around 1.2–1.25), typical for BDCs but limiting flexibility if credit stress rises. Higher leverage amplifies mark-to-market and credit losses, constrains capital actions in downturns, and reduces resilience to multi-quarter headwinds.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Solid Profitability
GBDC exhibits durable core profitability with a TTM net margin around 27% and consistently positive earnings. That level of recurring profitability supports distributions, funds reinvestment and gives management flexibility to absorb cyclical loan losses while preserving core economic returns over the medium term.
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Golub Capital Bdc (GBDC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.36B
Dividend Yield11.7%
Average Volume (3M)1.68M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth6.69%
EPS Growth-31.63%
CountryUS
Employees875
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.77
Shares Outstanding260,495,180
10 Day Avg. Volume1,225,337
30 Day Avg. Volume1,681,823
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)4.18
P/FCF Ratio-32.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.00Price Target Upside2.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$778.90M
Golub Capital Bdc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company. It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are...
How the Company Makes Money
GBDC makes money primarily from investment income generated by its portfolio of loans and other credit investments in middle-market businesses. The largest revenue stream is interest income earned on senior secured loans (often floating-rate), whi...
Golub Capital Bdc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: strong portfolio diversification, low nonaccruals, conservative underwriting, healthy liquidity, low borrowing costs and active capital-return actions were offset by a GAAP loss driven by mark-to-market fair value markdowns from spread widening, a NAV decline to $14.35 and modest near-term deployment. Management emphasized that the bulk of unrealized losses appear tied to market spreads (and thus potentially reversible) rather than permanent credit losses and expressed confidence in medium- to long-term prospects, but acknowledged ongoing macro and credit headwinds that could extend the cycle.Positive Updates
Adjusted NII and Earnings Power
Adjusted net investment income (NII) per share was $0.34 for the quarter, which corresponds to an annualized adjusted NII return on equity of 9.5% and fully covered the $0.33 per share base distribution.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Loss Driven by Fair Value Markdowns
GBDC reported a small GAAP loss for the quarter of about 1% of NAV and adjusted earnings of negative $0.18 per share, driven primarily by $0.52 per share of net realized and unrealized losses (about $0.51 per share unrealized).
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted NII and Earnings Power
Adjusted net investment income (NII) per share was $0.34 for the quarter, which corresponds to an annualized adjusted NII return on equity of 9.5% and fully covered the $0.33 per share base distribution.
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Company Guidance
The call’s guidance emphasized that the recent small GAAP loss (about 1% of NAV) was driven primarily by mark-to-market spread widening—$0.52 per share of net realized and unrealized losses (about $0.51 unrealized, with ~$0.35 from borrowers rated 4–5 and ~$0.16 from ratings 3 or lower)—that management expects will largely reverse over time as spreads normalize, new lending re-prices and performing borrowers pay down; meanwhile adjusted NII was $0.34 per share (annualized adjusted NII ROE ~9.5%), which covered the $0.33 per share distribution, NAV stood at $14.35, net debt/equity was 1.24x (average leverage 1.21x; target range 0.85–1.25), portfolio fair value was ~$8.3bn across 420 borrowers, nonaccruals remained low at 1.4% (19 names), investment income yield was 9.7% (down 30 bps), borrowing cost 5.2% (down 20 bps) producing a ~4.5% net investment spread, liquidity was ~$1.4bn, outstanding debt ~$4.7bn, total net assets ~$3.7bn, and management signaled continued focus on selective originations (GBDC commitments $17.7m vs. firm-wide originations >$3.3bn), opportunistic share repurchases (2.2m shares at $12.43, ~16% discount to 12/31/25 NAV), monitoring of software/AI risk (software ~26% of portfolio, 95% in ratings 4–5, only ~8% of software at elevated AI risk) and a preparedness to benefit from a more lender-friendly market and wider spreads over the medium to long term.Golub Capital Bdc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 761.39M | 870.78M | 611.05M | 572.53M | 346.28M | 415.20M |
| Gross Profit | 573.77M | 709.60M | 498.70M | 427.66M | 255.58M | 349.46M |
| EBITDA | 430.61M | 687.42M | 478.05M | 426.01M | 244.16M | 340.82M |
| Net Income | 204.86M | 376.13M | 273.79M | 272.03M | 155.57M | 340.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.53B | 8.98B | 8.71B | 5.73B | 5.68B | 5.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 128.42M | 23.62M | 131.16M | 69.83M | 124.14M | 181.09M |
| Total Debt | 4.70B | 4.90B | 4.60B | 3.12B | 3.08B | 2.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.78B | 5.00B | 4.69B | 3.19B | 3.14B | 2.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.75B | 3.98B | 4.01B | 2.55B | 2.54B | 2.58B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 313.35M | -113.59M | 343.91M | 195.37M | -416.46M | -306.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 313.35M | -113.59M | 343.91M | 195.37M | -416.46M | -306.05M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 213.13M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | -637.60M | -131.59M | -124.24M | -235.55M | 353.13M | 366.85M |
Golub Capital Bdc Technical Analysis
Negative
13.63
Price Trends
12.95
Negative
12.78
Positive
13.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Positive
44.97
Neutral
43.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBDC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.22, above the 50-day MA of 12.95, and above the 200-day MA of 13.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBDC.
Golub Capital Bdc Risk Analysis
Golub Capital Bdc disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Golub Capital Bdc reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Golub Capital Bdc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $4.62B | 24.50 | 14.32% | 7.17% | 16.23% | -19.30% | |
69 Neutral | $2.87B | 15.88 | 15.11% | 10.00% | 14.32% | 36.84% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
59 Neutral | $1.63B | -16.72 | 0.03% | 9.64% | -29.32% | -39.45% | |
55 Neutral | $3.36B | -17.77 | 5.24% | 11.70% | 6.69% | -31.63% | |
52 Neutral | $997.36M | -18.33 | 5.14% | 17.34% | 14.92% | 48.21% | |
50 Neutral | $3.02B | -1.62 | -9.39% | 18.52% | -38.13% | -203.38% |
* Financial Sector Average
GBDC
Golub Capital Bdc
12.89
-0.53
-3.93%
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
15.34
-0.21
-1.32%
MAIN
Main Street Capital
49.63
-2.06
-3.98%
TSLX
Sixth Street Specialty Lending
17.16
-3.44
-16.71%
FSK
FS KKR Capital
10.78
-6.89
-38.99%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
8.86
-0.40
-4.34%
Golub Capital Bdc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Golub Capital BDC Announces New $500 Million Notes Offering
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of major investment banks to issue and sell $500 million of 6.250% notes due 2031. The offering, conducted under the company’s existing shelf re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.