Golub Capital Bdc (GBDC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.19B
• Dividend Yield: 11.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 24.12%
• EPS Growth: 1.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 875
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 263,228,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,698,865
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,536,466
• PEG Ratio: 2.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.29
• P/FCF Ratio: -32.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.82
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 22.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.45
• 1Y Price Target: $14.60
• Price Target Upside: 19.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.44
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $802.74M

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(6.04% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

The score is primarily supported by strong reported profitability and a favorable valuation/income profile (low P/E and high dividend yield). It is held back by leveraged/less transparent balance-sheet signals, highly volatile cash generation, and bearish technicals with the stock trading below all major moving averages and negative momentum despite oversold readings.

Positive Factors

High profitability and margins

Sustained high margins indicate durable earnings power from interest and fee income on lending assets. For a BDC, elevated gross and operating margins provide a structural buffer to absorb credit losses, support distributions, and fund operations even if yields compress modestly over the next several months.

Strong credit-quality metrics

Very low nonaccruals and a high share in top internal ratings point to resilient underwriting and portfolio selection. This reduces the probability of large realized losses, supports NAV stability, and preserves NII and distributable cash over the medium term amid a choppy credit cycle.

Effective debt and cost-of-capital management

Management's ability to lower funding costs is a durable competitive advantage for a leveraged lender. Lower interest expense preserves net interest margin, increases spread resilience when yields compress, and supports sustainable dividends and slower NAV erosion over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and reporting inconsistency

A leveraged balance sheet increases sensitivity to rising defaults or funding stress; inconsistent debt reporting reduces transparency and complicates risk assessment. Lack of clarity on actual debt load can mask refinancing or covenant risks that matter over the next several months.

Volatile cash generation and free cash flow

Inconsistent operating cash flow and FCF indicate earnings are timing-sensitive and can undermine dividend coverage. For a BDC that routinely distributes income, uneven cash conversion raises the risk of distribution cuts or reliance on financing in weaker quarters.

Industry headwinds: spread compression and defaults

Persistent spread compression and elevated defaults structurally reduce new originations' yields and increase expected credit losses. Over a 2–6 month horizon this can compress NII, weaken portfolio reinvestment returns, and pressure dividend sustainability unless market conditions improve.

Golub Capital Bdc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company. It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are, in most cases, sponsored by private equity investors. It typically invests in diversified consumer services, automobiles, healthcare technology, insurance, health care equipment and supplies, hotels, restaurants and leisure, healthcare providers and services, IT services and specialty retails. It seeks to invest in the United States. It primarily invests in first lien traditional senior debt, first lien one stop, junior debt and equity, senior secured, one stop, unitranche, second lien, subordinated and mezzanine loans of middle-market companies, and warrants.

How the Company Makes Money

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. makes money primarily through interest income generated from its portfolio of debt investments. The company's revenue model is centered around providing loans to middle-market businesses, which typically have revenues between $10 million and $100 million. GBDC earns interest income from these loans, which are often structured with favorable terms to ensure consistent cash flow. Additionally, the firm may generate fee income from originating and managing these loans. Significant partnerships with private equity firms and other financial institutions can contribute to its deal flow and investment opportunities, enhancing its ability to generate returns for its shareholders. The company's focus on senior secured loans helps mitigate risk, further contributing to its earnings stability.

Golub Capital Bdc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and solid ROE support results, but the balance sheet is meaningfully leveraged and cash flow is notably volatile across years. Inconsistent debt reporting (TTM debt shown as 0 while leverage ratios remain elevated) reduces confidence in balance-sheet transparency.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong across periods, with very high TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross and operating margins (~90% gross; ~64% operating) and solid net margin (~54%). Revenue has expanded meaningfully over the last several years (notably strong growth in 2021 and continued growth into TTM), supporting earnings power. The main offset is volatility in growth rates year-to-year (including a revenue decline in 2022 and a slower growth year in 2024), which reduces consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a leveraged profile with debt-to-equity generally around ~1.1–1.23, which is typical for the structure but still increases sensitivity to credit/market conditions. Equity and assets have grown versus earlier years, and returns on equity are healthy (roughly ~6% to ~13% historically; ~9–10% recently), supporting the business model. A key concern is mixed reporting on debt (TTM shows total debt as 0 while leverage ratios remain elevated), creating uncertainty around the true debt load and limiting confidence in balance-sheet quality.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent. Operating cash flow swings from materially negative in several years (2021, 2022, and 2025 annual) to strongly positive in 2023, 2024, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Free cash flow tracks operating cash flow and shows sharp volatility, including a large negative growth rate in TTM, which signals uneven cash conversion and potentially timing-driven fluctuations. The positive TTM operating cash flow is a near-term positive, but the history of negative periods keeps the score moderate.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	629.60M	688.46M	475.73M	427.66M	254.66M	415.20M
Gross Profit	362.27M	407.83M	272.57M	284.43M	165.28M	349.46M
EBITDA	330.07M	375.61M	274.36M	262.21M	154.67M	340.82M
Net Income	330.58M	376.65M	273.79M	258.63M	153.44M	340.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.89B	8.98B	8.71B	5.73B	5.68B	5.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.45M	23.62M	131.16M	69.83M	124.14M	181.09M
Total Debt	4.88B	4.90B	4.60B	3.12B	3.08B	2.55B
Total Liabilities	4.98B	5.00B	4.69B	3.19B	3.14B	2.58B
Stockholders Equity	3.91B	3.98B	4.01B	2.55B	2.54B	2.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	473.15M	-113.59M	343.91M	195.37M	-416.46M	-306.05M
Operating Cash Flow	473.15M	-113.59M	343.91M	195.37M	-416.46M	-306.05M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-533.76M	-131.59M	-124.24M	-235.55M	353.13M	366.85M

Golub Capital Bdc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.26
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBDC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.60, below the 50-day MA of 13.22, and below the 200-day MA of 13.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBDC.

Golub Capital Bdc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MAIN	77 Outperform	$5.17B	9.57	19.07%	7.17%	11.60%	9.38%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.04B	8.02	8.75%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
GBDC	63 Neutral	$3.19B	9.74	8.34%	11.70%	24.12%	1.09%
HTGC	62 Neutral	$2.77B	8.13	16.02%	10.00%	-15.32%	-12.29%
TSLX	59 Neutral	$1.71B	9.99	10.61%	9.64%	-6.44%	-1.18%
FSK	56 Neutral	$3.67B	13.51	0.18%	18.52%	-13.67%	-48.49%

Golub Capital Bdc Corporate Events

Golub Capital BDC Shareholders Elect Directors, Ratify Auditor

On February 2, 2026, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, at which shareholders elected two Class I directors, David B. Golub and Anita J. Rival, to serve until the 2029 annual meeting or until their successors are duly elected and qualified. At the same meeting, stockholders also ratified the selection of Ernst & Young LLP as the company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, reinforcing continuity in the company’s board leadership and external financial oversight for the coming years.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBDC) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Golub Capital Bdc stock, see the GBDC Stock Forecast page.