Golub Capital Bdc (GBDC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.28B
• Dividend Yield: 11.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.23M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 24.12%
• EPS Growth: 1.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 875
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 263,228,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,172,958
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,229,214
• PEG Ratio: 2.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.29
• P/FCF Ratio: -32.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.89
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 22.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.59
• 1Y Price Target: $14.60
• Price Target Upside: 17.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.44
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $802.74M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.50 ▲(8.26% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability but held back by uneven cash flow generation and balance-sheet transparency concerns. Valuation is supportive (moderate P/E and very high dividend yield), while technicals are weak with negative momentum and price below key moving averages. Corporate events are mildly positive but not a major catalyst.

Positive Factors

High Profitability

Extremely high reported margins indicate durable earnings power for this credit-focused BDC. High gross and operating margins provide buffer to cover financing costs and adviser fees, supporting the capacity to pay dividends and absorb moderate credit losses without immediate capital raises.

Stable, Floating-Rate Loan Income

Concentrated business model in senior secured, often floating-rate middle-market loans produces recurring interest income that re-prices with rates. This structural asset mix provides a durable net interest margin and helps protect income during rising-rate environments versus fixed-income alternatives.

Healthy Returns on Equity

Consistent ROE in the mid-single to low-double digits with asset/equity growth shows the firm can deploy capital profitably. For a leveraged BDC, sustained ROE supports dividend sustainability, helps attract capital, and signals effective credit selection and pricing over economic cycles.

Negative Factors

Volatile Cash Generation

Large swings in operating and free cash flow undermine predictability of distributable cash and constrain strategic flexibility. Volatile cash conversion increases reliance on capital markets or borrowing to fund dividends or originations and raises execution risk during downturns.

Debt Reporting Transparency

Inconsistent or unclear debt reporting creates uncertainty about true leverage and liquidity. For a highly leveraged credit vehicle, opaque debt presentation hampers accurate assessment of funding resilience, counterparty exposure, and downside loss absorbency for investors.

External Manager Fee Drag

Reliance on an external adviser with meaningful management and incentive fees reduces net investment income available to shareholders and can erode returns relative to gross portfolio performance. Fee-driven expense pressure can limit retained earnings and raise governance/alignments risk long term.

Golub Capital Bdc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company. It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are, in most cases, sponsored by private equity investors. It typically invests in diversified consumer services, automobiles, healthcare technology, insurance, health care equipment and supplies, hotels, restaurants and leisure, healthcare providers and services, IT services and specialty retails. It seeks to invest in the United States. It primarily invests in first lien traditional senior debt, first lien one stop, junior debt and equity, senior secured, one stop, unitranche, second lien, subordinated and mezzanine loans of middle-market companies, and warrants.

How the Company Makes Money

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. makes money primarily through interest income generated from its portfolio of debt investments. The company's revenue model is centered around providing loans to middle-market businesses, which typically have revenues between $10 million and $100 million. GBDC earns interest income from these loans, which are often structured with favorable terms to ensure consistent cash flow. Additionally, the firm may generate fee income from originating and managing these loans. Significant partnerships with private equity firms and other financial institutions can contribute to its deal flow and investment opportunities, enhancing its ability to generate returns for its shareholders. The company's focus on senior secured loans helps mitigate risk, further contributing to its earnings stability.

Golub Capital Bdc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (78) is supported by very high margins and solid net profitability, but is tempered by growth volatility. Balance sheet is moderate (63) due to meaningful leverage and inconsistent debt reporting that reduces transparency. Cash flow is the key drag (52) given large swings between positive and negative operating/free cash flow, making cash realization less predictable.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong across periods, with very high TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross and operating margins (~90% gross; ~64% operating) and solid net margin (~54%). Revenue has expanded meaningfully over the last several years (notably strong growth in 2021 and continued growth into TTM), supporting earnings power. The main offset is volatility in growth rates year-to-year (including a revenue decline in 2022 and a slower growth year in 2024), which reduces consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a leveraged profile with debt-to-equity generally around ~1.1–1.23, which is typical for the structure but still increases sensitivity to credit/market conditions. Equity and assets have grown versus earlier years, and returns on equity are healthy (roughly ~6% to ~13% historically; ~9–10% recently), supporting the business model. A key concern is mixed reporting on debt (TTM shows total debt as 0 while leverage ratios remain elevated), creating uncertainty around the true debt load and limiting confidence in balance-sheet quality.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent. Operating cash flow swings from materially negative in several years (2021, 2022, and 2025 annual) to strongly positive in 2023, 2024, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Free cash flow tracks operating cash flow and shows sharp volatility, including a large negative growth rate in TTM, which signals uneven cash conversion and potentially timing-driven fluctuations. The positive TTM operating cash flow is a near-term positive, but the history of negative periods keeps the score moderate.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	629.60M	688.46M	475.73M	427.66M	254.66M	415.20M
Gross Profit	362.27M	407.83M	272.57M	284.43M	165.28M	349.46M
EBITDA	330.07M	375.61M	274.36M	262.21M	154.67M	340.82M
Net Income	330.58M	376.65M	273.79M	258.63M	153.44M	340.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.89B	8.98B	8.71B	5.73B	5.68B	5.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.45M	23.62M	131.16M	69.83M	124.14M	181.09M
Total Debt	4.88B	4.90B	4.60B	3.12B	3.08B	2.55B
Total Liabilities	4.98B	5.00B	4.69B	3.19B	3.14B	2.58B
Stockholders Equity	3.91B	3.98B	4.01B	2.55B	2.54B	2.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	473.15M	-113.59M	343.91M	195.37M	-416.46M	-306.05M
Operating Cash Flow	473.15M	-113.59M	343.91M	195.37M	-416.46M	-306.05M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-533.76M	-131.59M	-124.24M	-235.55M	353.13M	366.85M

Golub Capital Bdc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 12.47
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBDC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.92, below the 50-day MA of 12.55, and below the 200-day MA of 13.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GBDC.

Golub Capital Bdc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.05B	8.99	8.03%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
MAIN	65 Neutral	$5.02B	10.94	16.94%	7.17%	11.60%	9.38%
GBDC	64 Neutral	$3.28B	13.71	8.30%	11.70%	24.12%	1.09%
HTGC	62 Neutral	$2.67B	10.01	15.88%	10.00%	-15.32%	-12.29%
TSLX	59 Neutral	$1.73B	12.06	10.58%	9.64%	-6.44%	-1.18%
FSK	56 Neutral	$2.87B	-9.10	0.18%	18.52%	-13.67%	-48.49%

Golub Capital Bdc Corporate Events

Golub Capital BDC Shareholders Elect Directors, Ratify Auditor

On February 2, 2026, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, at which shareholders elected two Class I directors, David B. Golub and Anita J. Rival, to serve until the 2029 annual meeting or until their successors are duly elected and qualified. At the same meeting, stockholders also ratified the selection of Ernst & Young LLP as the company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, reinforcing continuity in the company’s board leadership and external financial oversight for the coming years.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBDC) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Golub Capital Bdc stock, see the GBDC Stock Forecast page.