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Tullow Oil (GB:TLW)
:TLW

Tullow Oil (TLW) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Tullow Oil

(LSE:TLW)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
18.00p
▲(16.13%Upside)
Tullow Oil's overall score is bolstered by positive corporate events and an attractive valuation, but is tempered by financial risks due to high leverage and operational profitability challenges. Technical indicators are mixed, offering a neutral short-term outlook.
Positive Factors
Asset Sale
The Gabon asset sale is expected to marginally improve the net debt/EBITDAX multiples and enhance liquidity by approximately $150 million.
Future Production Potential
Investment into a gas lift system may lead to an upside surprise in production and net asset value.
Negative Factors
Debt Concerns
There is ongoing concern regarding debt refinancing and the potential for higher than expected debt amortization.
Interest Costs
Cash interest costs are not expected to materially reduce, maintaining a burden of approximately $200 million per year.

Tullow Oil (TLW) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Tullow Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTullow Oil plc engages in the oil and gas exploration, development, and production activities primarily in Africa and South America. As of December 31, 2021, its portfolio comprised 30 licenses in 8 countries with 30 producing wells. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyTullow Oil makes money through the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company generates revenue primarily by selling the oil and gas it produces to refineries and other market participants. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil from its producing fields, particularly in Ghana, which is a major contributor to its output. Tullow Oil also enters into strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other oil companies to share risks and costs associated with exploration and development. These partnerships often provide additional revenue opportunities through shared production agreements. Additionally, Tullow manages its portfolio to optimize cash flow, focusing on high-margin production areas and divesting non-core assets when appropriate.

Tullow Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tullow Oil exhibits strong cash flow generation with a score of 75 but faces significant balance sheet risks with high leverage and negative equity, scoring only 40. Income statement reflects operational profitability challenges with a score of 60, despite a healthy gross margin.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Tullow Oil's income statement shows fluctuating revenue and profitability. The gross profit margin for 2024 is approximately 49.1%, which is strong. However, the net profit margin is low at 3.6% due to significant expenses and interest burdens, reflecting operational challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, indicating volatility in business operations and market conditions.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a negative equity position, indicating financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, and the return on equity cannot be calculated. The company's financial structure is concerning, with liabilities exceeding assets, posing significant risks.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows strong operating cash flow, indicating robust cash-generating capacity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, highlighting effective cash management despite profitability issues. However, the declining free cash flow growth rate suggests potential future challenges in maintaining cash flow levels.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.53B1.63B1.78B1.27B1.40B
Gross Profit754.00M790.80M1.09B634.30M402.50M
EBITDA1.11B860.20M1.20B930.80M-492.80M
Net Income54.60M-109.60M49.10M-80.70M-1.22B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.05B4.46B5.04B5.54B6.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments548.60M499.00M636.30M469.10M805.40M
Total Debt2.71B2.99B3.46B3.73B4.39B
Total Liabilities4.32B4.82B5.50B6.01B6.77B
Stockholders Equity-272.70M-359.40M-459.50M-466.10M-210.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow534.00M583.70M771.40M550.40M267.70M
Operating Cash Flow758.50M876.20M1.08B786.90M698.60M
Investing Cash Flow-213.10M-268.50M-356.20M-101.70M84.30M
Financing Cash Flow-492.20M-742.50M-552.80M-1.03B-271.70M

Tullow Oil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price15.50
Price Trends
50DMA
15.52
Negative
100DMA
15.29
Positive
200DMA
18.87
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.06
Positive
RSI
43.62
Neutral
STOCH
9.40
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TLW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.59, below the 50-day MA of 15.52, and below the 200-day MA of 18.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:TLW.

Tullow Oil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBTLW
71
Outperform
£226.63M4.94
-11.70%
52
Neutral
C$2.91B-1.09-3.26%6.12%5.32%-43.41%
$247.77M-15.72%
GBENQ
75
Outperform
£231.21M3.2518.48%42.93%-21.23%
GBCNE
54
Neutral
£156.83M17.20-3.25%-28.38%90.60%
£115.96M3.6011.30%
54
Neutral
£139.21M-80.82%-5.92%-91.89%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
15.50
-16.14
-51.01%
GEGYF
Genel Energy
0.79
-0.39
-33.05%
GB:CNE
Capricorn Energy PLC
224.50
42.50
23.35%
GB:ENQ
Enquest
0.13
0.01
8.33%
GB:SAVE
Savannah Petroleum
7.20
-19.00
-72.52%
GB:KIST
Kistos PLC
168.00
37.00
28.24%

Tullow Oil Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

Tullow Oil plc announced that as of June 30, 2025, its issued share capital comprised 1,462,155,919 ordinary shares with voting rights, with none held in treasury. This total number of voting rights is significant for shareholders as it serves as a basis for calculating their interest or changes in interest in the company, in line with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Other
Tullow Oil Director Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence
Positive
Jun 26, 2025

Tullow Oil announced a transaction involving the purchase of 100,000 ordinary shares by Roald Goethe, a Non-Executive Director, at a price of £0.168 per share, totaling £16,800. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects insider confidence in the company’s market position and potential growth, potentially influencing stakeholder perceptions and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil and Partners Secure License Extension for Ghana’s Jubilee and TEN Fields
Positive
Jun 4, 2025

The Government of Ghana, Tullow Oil, and its partners have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to extend the production licenses for the Jubilee and TEN fields to 2040. This agreement includes plans to drill up to 20 additional wells, representing a $2 billion investment, and aims to increase gas supply while reducing gas prices. The extension is expected to enhance Ghana’s energy sector, providing economic growth, job opportunities, and increased reserves, thereby benefiting both the country’s development and the stakeholders involved.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced that as of May 30, 2025, its issued share capital consists of 1,461,244,156 ordinary shares with voting rights, and no shares are held in treasury. This information is crucial for shareholders to calculate their interest in the company, as per the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Seeks Block Listing for Employee Incentive Plans
Positive
May 27, 2025

Tullow Oil has applied for a block listing of 18,000,000 ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange to support its Employee Share Award Plan and Tullow Incentive Plan. This move is expected to enhance the company’s capital structure and provide incentives for its employees, potentially impacting its market position positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil’s AGM Resolutions Passed with Strong Shareholder Support
Positive
May 22, 2025

Tullow Oil plc announced that all resolutions proposed at its Annual General Meeting on May 22, 2025, were passed by the required majority. The resolutions included the adoption of the company’s annual accounts, approval of the remuneration report, re-election of directors, and re-appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors. The successful passage of these resolutions indicates strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic direction and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Strengthens Financial Position with Asset Divestments and Operational Advances
Positive
May 22, 2025

Tullow Oil has announced significant progress in strengthening its financial position through the divestment of non-core assets in Gabon and Kenya, expected to generate $380 million in cash proceeds. The company is also advancing plans to refinance its capital structure and optimize costs, aiming for $10 million in annual savings. Operationally, Tullow’s production levels are within the expected range, and new drilling campaigns in Ghana are underway, which are expected to enhance reserves growth. These strategic moves are set to solidify Tullow’s foundation for future value creation and improve its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Sells Gabon Assets to Gabon Oil Company for $300 Million
Positive
May 13, 2025

Tullow Oil has signed a sale and purchase agreement to divest its entire Gabonese asset portfolio to Gabon Oil Company for $300 million. This strategic move is expected to significantly reduce Tullow’s net debt, strengthen its balance sheet, and align with its strategy of focusing on high-margin, self-funded production. The transaction will enable Tullow to optimize its capital structure and pursue growth opportunities in West Africa, enhancing value for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Releases 2024 Government Payments Report
Neutral
May 13, 2025

Tullow Oil has released its report on payments to governments for the year 2024, detailing financial transactions with various governments in accordance with regulatory requirements. The report highlights significant payments made in the form of income taxes, royalties, and infrastructure improvement payments, reflecting Tullow’s ongoing commitments and financial interactions with host countries. This disclosure underscores the company’s transparency and its role in contributing to the economies of the countries where it operates.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Discloses 2024 Government Payments, Reinforcing Transparency
Positive
May 9, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has released its report on payments to governments for the year 2024, detailing financial transactions in compliance with regulatory requirements. The report highlights significant payments made to various governments, including $357 million in income taxes and $26 million in royalties, reflecting the company’s substantial operational footprint in countries like Ghana and Gabon. This disclosure underscores Tullow Oil’s commitment to transparency and its role in contributing to the economies of its host countries.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
RWC Asset Management Alters Stake in Tullow Oil
Neutral
May 6, 2025

RWC Asset Management LLP has acquired or disposed of voting rights in Tullow Oil PLC, crossing a threshold of 4.9136% of the total voting rights. This change in holdings could impact Tullow Oil’s shareholder structure and influence its strategic decisions, reflecting ongoing interest and investment activities in the company.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
May 1, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced that as of April 30, 2025, its issued share capital consists of 1,460,890,410 ordinary shares with voting rights, with none held in treasury. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

Business Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Director Acquires Significant Shareholding
Positive
Apr 23, 2025

Tullow Oil plc announced a managerial transaction involving Roald Goethe, a Non-Executive Director, who purchased 150,000 ordinary shares at £0.1350 each, totaling £20,250. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects confidence in the company’s future prospects and may influence stakeholder perceptions positively.

Business Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Sees Increase in Major Holdings by Sustainable Capital
Positive
Apr 17, 2025

Tullow Oil PLC has announced a change in major holdings, with Sustainable Capital Ltd increasing its voting rights from 3.47% to 4.52%. This acquisition of voting rights indicates a growing interest and investment in Tullow Oil, potentially impacting the company’s strategic decisions and influencing stakeholder confidence.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Sells Kenyan Assets to Gulf Energy for $120 Million
Positive
Apr 15, 2025

Tullow Oil has agreed to sell its Kenyan assets to Gulf Energy for $120 million, with near-term cash receipts of $80 million and an option to participate in future development phases at no cost. This transaction is part of Tullow’s strategy to accelerate its deleveraging process, reduce capital exposure, and position the company for successful refinancing, while transferring all past and future liabilities to the buyer.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tullow Oil Releases 2024 Annual and Sustainability Reports, Announces 2025 AGM
Positive
Apr 14, 2025

Tullow Oil has published its 2024 Annual Report and Sustainability Report, following its preliminary full-year results announcement. The company has also announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting, which will take place on 22 May 2025. The reports are available on Tullow’s website and have been submitted to the National Storage Mechanism and the Ghana Stock Exchange, making them accessible to shareholders in Ghana. This publication highlights Tullow’s ongoing commitment to transparency and sustainability, potentially impacting its operational and market positioning positively.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 26, 2025