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Tullow Oil PLC (GB:TLW)
LSE:TLW

Tullow Oil (TLW) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Tullow Oil

(LSE:TLW)

Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
19.00p
▲(2.37%Upside)
Tullow Oil's overall score reflects strong cash flow and positive corporate events, offset by significant financial risks and bearish technical indicators. The stock is undervalued, but high leverage and overbought technical signals suggest caution.
Positive Factors
Future Production Potential
Investment into a gas lift system may lead to an upside surprise in production and net asset value.
Liquidity Improvement
The sale of Gabon assets is expected to add approximately $150 million in liquidity.
Stock Recommendation
Despite a lowered target price, the stock is still recommended as a speculative buy.
Negative Factors
Debt Concerns
There are ongoing concerns about the company's debt refinancing.
Interest Costs
The cash interest cost of approximately $200 million per year is not expected to materially decrease.
Target Price Reduction
The target price for Tullow Oil has been lowered from 35p to 25p.

Tullow Oil (TLW) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Tullow Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTullow Oil (TLW) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company, primarily focused on Africa and South America. The company engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas resources. With a portfolio that includes various onshore and offshore oil fields, Tullow Oil is involved in the entire production lifecycle, from discovering new reserves to extracting hydrocarbons for the global market.
How the Company Makes MoneyTullow Oil makes money through the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company generates revenue primarily by selling the oil and gas it produces to refineries and other market participants. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil from its producing fields, particularly in Ghana, which is a major contributor to its output. Tullow Oil also enters into strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other oil companies to share risks and costs associated with exploration and development. These partnerships often provide additional revenue opportunities through shared production agreements. Additionally, Tullow manages its portfolio to optimize cash flow, focusing on high-margin production areas and divesting non-core assets when appropriate.

Tullow Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tullow Oil exhibits strong cash flow generation with a score of 75 but faces significant balance sheet risks with high leverage and negative equity, scoring only 40. Income statement reflects operational profitability challenges with a score of 60, despite a healthy gross margin.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Tullow Oil's income statement shows fluctuating revenue and profitability. The gross profit margin for 2024 is approximately 49.1%, which is strong. However, the net profit margin is low at 3.6% due to significant expenses and interest burdens, reflecting operational challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, indicating volatility in business operations and market conditions.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a negative equity position, indicating financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, and the return on equity cannot be calculated. The company's financial structure is concerning, with liabilities exceeding assets, posing significant risks.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows strong operating cash flow, indicating robust cash-generating capacity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, highlighting effective cash management despite profitability issues. However, the declining free cash flow growth rate suggests potential future challenges in maintaining cash flow levels.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.53B1.63B1.78B1.27B1.40B
Gross Profit
754.00M790.80M1.09B634.30M402.50M
EBIT
595.60M295.90M1.28B514.50M374.40M
EBITDA
1.11B860.20M1.20B930.80M-492.80M
Net Income Common Stockholders
54.60M-109.60M49.10M-80.70M-1.22B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
548.60M499.00M636.30M469.10M805.40M
Total Assets
4.05B4.46B5.04B5.54B6.56B
Total Debt
2.71B2.99B3.46B3.73B4.39B
Net Debt
2.16B2.50B2.82B3.26B3.58B
Total Liabilities
4.32B4.82B5.50B6.01B6.77B
Stockholders Equity
-272.70M-359.40M-459.50M-466.10M-210.00M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
534.00M583.70M771.40M550.40M267.70M
Operating Cash Flow
758.50M876.20M1.08B786.90M698.60M
Investing Cash Flow
-213.10M-268.50M-356.20M-101.70M84.30M
Financing Cash Flow
-492.20M-742.50M-552.80M-1.03B-271.70M

Tullow Oil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price18.56
Price Trends
50DMA
14.41
Positive
100DMA
15.72
Positive
200DMA
19.46
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.99
Negative
RSI
79.86
Negative
STOCH
88.03
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TLW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.17, above the 50-day MA of 14.41, and below the 200-day MA of 19.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.86 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:TLW.

Tullow Oil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBENQ
68
Neutral
£224.97M3.1618.48%60.29%-21.23%
GBTLW
61
Neutral
£262.73M5.91
-11.70%
58
Neutral
£140.87M-80.82%-5.92%-91.89%
58
Neutral
$154.19M-15.72%-14.44%-22.34%
58
Neutral
$7.37B3.39-4.49%10.01%0.82%-49.15%
GBCNE
56
Neutral
£157.18M17.20-3.25%-28.38%90.60%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
18.56
-14.26
-43.45%
GB:GENL
Genel Energy
55.50
-37.40
-40.26%
GB:ENQ
Enquest
12.38
0.02
0.16%
GB:CNE
Capricorn Energy PLC
229.50
62.00
37.01%
GB:KIST
Kistos PLC
176.00
28.50
19.32%

Tullow Oil Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil and Partners Secure License Extension for Ghana’s Jubilee and TEN Fields
Positive
Jun 4, 2025

The Government of Ghana, Tullow Oil, and its partners have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to extend the production licenses for the Jubilee and TEN fields to 2040. This agreement includes plans to drill up to 20 additional wells, representing a $2 billion investment, and aims to increase gas supply while reducing gas prices. The extension is expected to enhance Ghana’s energy sector, providing economic growth, job opportunities, and increased reserves, thereby benefiting both the country’s development and the stakeholders involved.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced that as of May 30, 2025, its issued share capital consists of 1,461,244,156 ordinary shares with voting rights, and no shares are held in treasury. This information is crucial for shareholders to calculate their interest in the company, as per the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Seeks Block Listing for Employee Incentive Plans
Positive
May 27, 2025

Tullow Oil has applied for a block listing of 18,000,000 ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange to support its Employee Share Award Plan and Tullow Incentive Plan. This move is expected to enhance the company’s capital structure and provide incentives for its employees, potentially impacting its market position positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil’s AGM Resolutions Passed with Strong Shareholder Support
Positive
May 22, 2025

Tullow Oil plc announced that all resolutions proposed at its Annual General Meeting on May 22, 2025, were passed by the required majority. The resolutions included the adoption of the company’s annual accounts, approval of the remuneration report, re-election of directors, and re-appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as auditors. The successful passage of these resolutions indicates strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic direction and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Strengthens Financial Position with Asset Divestments and Operational Advances
Positive
May 22, 2025

Tullow Oil has announced significant progress in strengthening its financial position through the divestment of non-core assets in Gabon and Kenya, expected to generate $380 million in cash proceeds. The company is also advancing plans to refinance its capital structure and optimize costs, aiming for $10 million in annual savings. Operationally, Tullow’s production levels are within the expected range, and new drilling campaigns in Ghana are underway, which are expected to enhance reserves growth. These strategic moves are set to solidify Tullow’s foundation for future value creation and improve its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Sells Gabon Assets to Gabon Oil Company for $300 Million
Positive
May 13, 2025

Tullow Oil has signed a sale and purchase agreement to divest its entire Gabonese asset portfolio to Gabon Oil Company for $300 million. This strategic move is expected to significantly reduce Tullow’s net debt, strengthen its balance sheet, and align with its strategy of focusing on high-margin, self-funded production. The transaction will enable Tullow to optimize its capital structure and pursue growth opportunities in West Africa, enhancing value for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Releases 2024 Government Payments Report
Neutral
May 13, 2025

Tullow Oil has released its report on payments to governments for the year 2024, detailing financial transactions with various governments in accordance with regulatory requirements. The report highlights significant payments made in the form of income taxes, royalties, and infrastructure improvement payments, reflecting Tullow’s ongoing commitments and financial interactions with host countries. This disclosure underscores the company’s transparency and its role in contributing to the economies of the countries where it operates.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Discloses 2024 Government Payments, Reinforcing Transparency
Positive
May 9, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has released its report on payments to governments for the year 2024, detailing financial transactions in compliance with regulatory requirements. The report highlights significant payments made to various governments, including $357 million in income taxes and $26 million in royalties, reflecting the company’s substantial operational footprint in countries like Ghana and Gabon. This disclosure underscores Tullow Oil’s commitment to transparency and its role in contributing to the economies of its host countries.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
RWC Asset Management Alters Stake in Tullow Oil
Neutral
May 6, 2025

RWC Asset Management LLP has acquired or disposed of voting rights in Tullow Oil PLC, crossing a threshold of 4.9136% of the total voting rights. This change in holdings could impact Tullow Oil’s shareholder structure and influence its strategic decisions, reflecting ongoing interest and investment activities in the company.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
May 1, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced that as of April 30, 2025, its issued share capital consists of 1,460,890,410 ordinary shares with voting rights, with none held in treasury. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

Business Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Director Acquires Significant Shareholding
Positive
Apr 23, 2025

Tullow Oil plc announced a managerial transaction involving Roald Goethe, a Non-Executive Director, who purchased 150,000 ordinary shares at £0.1350 each, totaling £20,250. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects confidence in the company’s future prospects and may influence stakeholder perceptions positively.

Business Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Sees Increase in Major Holdings by Sustainable Capital
Positive
Apr 17, 2025

Tullow Oil PLC has announced a change in major holdings, with Sustainable Capital Ltd increasing its voting rights from 3.47% to 4.52%. This acquisition of voting rights indicates a growing interest and investment in Tullow Oil, potentially impacting the company’s strategic decisions and influencing stakeholder confidence.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil Sells Kenyan Assets to Gulf Energy for $120 Million
Positive
Apr 15, 2025

Tullow Oil has agreed to sell its Kenyan assets to Gulf Energy for $120 million, with near-term cash receipts of $80 million and an option to participate in future development phases at no cost. This transaction is part of Tullow’s strategy to accelerate its deleveraging process, reduce capital exposure, and position the company for successful refinancing, while transferring all past and future liabilities to the buyer.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tullow Oil Releases 2024 Annual and Sustainability Reports, Announces 2025 AGM
Positive
Apr 14, 2025

Tullow Oil has published its 2024 Annual Report and Sustainability Report, following its preliminary full-year results announcement. The company has also announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting, which will take place on 22 May 2025. The reports are available on Tullow’s website and have been submitted to the National Storage Mechanism and the Ghana Stock Exchange, making them accessible to shareholders in Ghana. This publication highlights Tullow’s ongoing commitment to transparency and sustainability, potentially impacting its operational and market positioning positively.

Other
Tullow Oil Director Acquires Significant Shareholding
Positive
Apr 4, 2025

Tullow Oil plc announced a transaction involving Roald Goethe, a Non-Executive Director, who purchased 150,000 ordinary shares at a price of £0.144 each, totaling £21,600. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects confidence in the company’s market position and may influence stakeholder perceptions of Tullow Oil’s future prospects.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights for March 2025
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced its total voting rights as of March 31, 2025, with an issued share capital of 1,459,660,067 ordinary shares, each with voting rights. This announcement is in line with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, providing shareholders with necessary information for regulatory compliance and potential changes in their shareholding interests.

Business Operations and Strategy
Tullow Oil’s Non-Executive Director Acquires 700,000 Shares
Neutral
Mar 27, 2025

Tullow Oil announced a transaction involving the purchase of 700,000 ordinary shares by Roald Goethe, a Non-Executive Director, at the London Stock Exchange. This transaction, valued at £103,390.00, reflects a strategic move that could potentially impact Tullow Oil’s market perception and stakeholder confidence.

Other
Tullow Oil Director Acquires 400,000 Shares
Positive
Mar 27, 2025

Tullow Oil plc announced a transaction involving the purchase of 400,000 ordinary shares by Roald Goethe, a Non-Executive Director of the company. The shares were acquired at varying prices on the London Stock Exchange, totaling £68,010. This transaction reflects a significant investment by a key managerial figure, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and stability.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tullow Oil’s 2024 Results: Strategic Moves and Financial Discipline
Positive
Mar 25, 2025

Tullow Oil has announced its full-year results for 2024, highlighting a mix of successes and challenges. The company is focusing on production optimization and reserves maturation in Ghana, and has resolved a significant tax arbitration in Ghana, removing a $320 million liability. Tullow also plans to sell its Gabonese assets for $300 million, which will aid in debt reduction. The company is advancing its refinancing plan and aims to maintain financial discipline while optimizing production and driving reserve growth. Despite a slight decrease in production and revenue, Tullow has reduced its net debt and achieved significant operational milestones, including the completion of five new Jubilee wells ahead of schedule.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.