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Tullow Oil PLC (GB:TLW)
LSE:TLW
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Tullow Oil (TLW) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:TLW

Tullow Oil

(LSE:TLW)

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Neutral 48 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
6.00p
▲(0.33% Upside)
Tullow Oil's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance and technical analysis. The company's strong cash flow is overshadowed by significant balance sheet risks and operational profitability challenges. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings and lack of dividends.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Strong operating cash flow indicates Tullow Oil's ability to generate cash from its core operations, which is crucial for funding investments and managing debt.
Gross Margin
A strong gross margin suggests efficient production processes and cost management, providing a buffer against market volatility and supporting long-term profitability.
Industry Expertise
Tullow Oil's expertise in challenging environments enhances its competitive position and ability to capitalize on new exploration opportunities, supporting sustainable growth.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage and negative equity pose significant financial risks, limiting Tullow Oil's flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns.
Revenue Volatility
Inconsistent revenue growth reflects market and operational volatility, challenging Tullow Oil's ability to plan and invest strategically for the future.
Profitability Challenges
Low net profit margins indicate ongoing operational challenges and cost pressures, which could hinder Tullow Oil's ability to achieve sustainable profitability.

Tullow Oil (TLW) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Tullow Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTullow Oil plc engages in the oil and gas exploration, development, and production activities primarily in Africa and South America. As of December 31, 2021, its portfolio comprised 30 licenses in 8 countries with 30 producing wells. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyTullow Oil generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates several oil fields where it extracts hydrocarbons, which are then sold to refineries and trading companies. Key revenue streams include revenue from production-sharing contracts, where Tullow shares a portion of its output with host governments in exchange for the right to operate oil fields. Additionally, Tullow may engage in partnerships and joint ventures with other oil companies, allowing for shared investment and risk in exploration and production activities. Factors contributing to Tullow's earnings include global oil prices, production efficiency, operational costs, and the successful development of new oil fields. The company also benefits from long-term contracts and relationships with various stakeholders in the oil industry.

Tullow Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tullow Oil shows strong cash flow generation but faces significant balance sheet risks due to high leverage and negative equity. The income statement indicates operational profitability challenges despite a healthy gross margin.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Tullow Oil's income statement shows fluctuating revenue and profitability. The gross profit margin for 2024 is approximately 49.1%, which is strong. However, the net profit margin is low at 3.6% due to significant expenses and interest burdens, reflecting operational challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, indicating volatility in business operations and market conditions.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a negative equity position, indicating financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, and the return on equity cannot be calculated. The company's financial structure is concerning, with liabilities exceeding assets, posing significant risks.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows strong operating cash flow, indicating robust cash-generating capacity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, highlighting effective cash management despite profitability issues. However, the declining free cash flow growth rate suggests potential future challenges in maintaining cash flow levels.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue981.40M1.53B1.63B1.78B1.29B1.40B
Gross Profit381.35M754.00M790.80M1.09B646.50M402.50M
EBITDA656.85M1.11B860.20M1.20B930.80M-492.80M
Net Income-171.75M54.60M-109.60M49.10M-80.70M-1.22B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.61B4.05B4.46B5.04B5.54B6.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments187.50M548.60M499.00M636.30M469.10M805.40M
Total Debt2.47B2.71B2.99B3.46B3.73B4.39B
Total Liabilities3.93B4.32B4.82B5.50B6.01B6.77B
Stockholders Equity-329.70M-272.70M-359.40M-459.50M-466.10M-210.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow439.55M534.00M583.70M771.40M550.40M267.70M
Operating Cash Flow569.60M758.50M876.20M1.08B786.90M698.60M
Investing Cash Flow-107.15M-213.10M-268.50M-356.20M-101.70M84.30M
Financing Cash Flow-357.05M-492.20M-742.50M-552.80M-1.03B-271.70M

Tullow Oil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price5.98
Price Trends
50DMA
8.96
Negative
100DMA
10.48
Negative
200DMA
12.83
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.12
Positive
RSI
40.91
Neutral
STOCH
54.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TLW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.18, below the 50-day MA of 8.96, and below the 200-day MA of 12.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:TLW.

Tullow Oil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
59
Neutral
£217.46M-2.53-26.37%4.02%-18.05%-634.88%
52
Neutral
£135.11M-8.48-6.29%-32.66%72.67%
50
Neutral
$176.21M-4.19-11.54%-0.20%-25.68%
48
Neutral
£137.62M-0.87-32.47%-1490.91%
41
Neutral
£129.27M-92.03%-16.87%21.18%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
6.30
-17.66
-73.71%
GB:GENL
Genel Energy
57.90
-9.40
-13.97%
GB:CNE
Capricorn Energy PLC
190.80
-55.20
-22.44%
GB:ENQ
Enquest
10.44
-0.14
-1.32%
GB:SAVE
Savannah Petroleum
5.40
-20.85
-79.43%
GB:KIST
Kistos PLC
160.00
43.50
37.34%

Tullow Oil Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Tullow Oil Strengthens Financial Position with Strategic Asset Sales and Operational Focus
Positive
Nov 21, 2025

Tullow Oil has made significant strides in enhancing its financial stability and operational efficiency, particularly in Ghana, by selling its interests in Kenya and Gabon for a combined total of over $400 million. The company is focusing on optimizing production and managing natural decline in existing wells, while also planning new drilling activities. Tullow is addressing financial challenges by engaging with creditors and exploring refinancing options, aiming to maintain a sustainable financial footing. The company expects its 2025 production to be at the lower end of the forecasted range and is working to resolve outstanding receivables with the Government of Ghana.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced its total voting rights as of October 31, 2025, with an issued share capital of 1,475,023,041 ordinary shares, all with voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their interests in the company under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tullow Oil Aligns Executive Incentives with Shareholder Returns
Neutral
Oct 7, 2025

Tullow Oil PLC has announced the granting of nil-cost option awards over its ordinary shares to its CEO, Ian Perks, and CFO, Richard Miller, under its 2023 Executive Share Plan. These awards, contingent on achieving specified shareholder return targets over a three-year period, reflect the company’s strategy to align executive incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced that as of 30 September 2025, its issued share capital consists of 1,465,023,041 ordinary shares with voting rights, and no shares are held in treasury. This update is in accordance with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, allowing shareholders to calculate their interests in the company, which could impact their notification requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Tullow Oil CFO Receives Share Award Vesting
Neutral
Sep 30, 2025

Tullow Oil announced the vesting of 71,056 ordinary shares awarded to Chief Financial Officer Richard Miller under the company’s 2014 Employee Share Award Plan. This transaction, conducted outside a trading venue, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to rewarding its key managerial personnel, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions of the company’s executive compensation strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tullow Oil Reports Mid-Year Reserves Decline, Eyes Future Growth in Ghana
Neutral
Sep 26, 2025

Tullow Oil has published its mid-year 2025 reserves report, indicating a decrease in total reserves from 128.5 mmboe at the end of 2024 to 113.8 mmboe as of June 2025, primarily due to production and performance revisions. The company anticipates increasing its 2P reserves in Ghana through new seismic data and ongoing collaboration with the Ghanaian government, which includes extending production licenses and exploring further drilling opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Tullow Oil Exits Kenya with $120 Million Asset Sale to Gulf Energy
Positive
Sep 25, 2025

Tullow Oil has completed the sale of its Kenya assets to Auron Energy E&P Limited, an affiliate of Gulf Energy Ltd, for a minimum of $120 million. This transaction marks Tullow’s exit from Kenya after 14 years and is part of its strategic priorities for 2025, aimed at strengthening its balance sheet and positioning the company for refinancing its capital structure. The sale is expected to impact Kenya’s domestic energy sector positively, with Gulf Energy taking over the project to advance energy security and development in the Turkana region.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tullow Oil Appoints Ian Perks as New CEO
Positive
Sep 5, 2025

Tullow Oil has appointed Ian Perks as its new CEO, effective September 15, 2025. With over 30 years of experience in the upstream oil and gas industry, Perks has a proven track record in managing large projects and businesses, particularly in Africa. His appointment is expected to strengthen Tullow’s operations and strategic growth across the continent, leveraging existing assets and enhancing stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Sep 1, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced that as of 29 August 2025, its issued share capital comprises 1,464,664,066 ordinary shares with voting rights, with no shares held in treasury. This disclosure aligns with the FCA’s rules and provides shareholders with the necessary information to assess their holdings and obligations regarding voting rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 02, 2025