Tullow Oil (TLW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £110.63M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.90M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.86
• Revenue Growth: -32.47%
• EPS Growth: -1490.91%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 397
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 1,475,023,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,624,881
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,904,496
• PEG Ratio: -0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.26
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £20.80
• Price Target Upside: 167.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: 7.50p ▼(-3.60% Downside)

The score is primarily constrained by significant balance sheet risk (negative equity/high leverage) despite strong operating cash generation. Technical indicators show improving near-term momentum, but longer-term trend signals remain weak. Valuation provides limited support due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Operating cash generation

Strong operating cash flow provides durable internal funding, reducing reliance on external credit and supporting ongoing capex and working capital. Consistent cash generation can help smooth cyclical volatility and fund prioritized investments while management repairs the balance sheet over time.

High gross margin

A circa 49% gross margin indicates robust production economics and cost control at the asset level. This structural margin buffer helps absorb operating cost inflation and commodity swings, supporting project economics and the ability to fund maintenance and redevelopment over the medium term.

Exploration & production expertise

Longstanding technical capability and experience operating across Africa and South America create durable operational advantage. Expertise in exploration, appraisal and development secures access to production-sharing contracts and partner relationships that underpin future resource capture and field development.

Negative Factors

High leverage / negative equity

Negative equity and elevated leverage materially constrain financial flexibility and increase refinancing and covenant risk. This structural imbalance can force asset sales, limit capital investment, and prioritize debt servicing over growth, weakening resilience to sustained commodity downturns.

Volatile revenue trends

Substantial revenue decline and historical volatility reduce cash flow predictability and complicate multi-year planning. For an E&P company, inconsistent production and sales streams undermine reliable funding for development projects and increase execution risk on capital-intensive field programs.

Thin net margins & interest burden

A low net margin despite strong gross margins indicates heavy non-operating costs, notably interest, that compress retained earnings. Persistently thin profitability limits balance sheet repair, reduces buffer against price shocks, and increases sensitivity to interest rates and financing conditions.

Tullow Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tullow Oil plc engages in the oil and gas exploration, development, and production activities primarily in Africa and South America. As of December 31, 2021, its portfolio comprised 30 licenses in 8 countries with 30 producing wells. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Tullow Oil generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates several oil fields where it extracts hydrocarbons, which are then sold to refineries and trading companies. Key revenue streams include revenue from production-sharing contracts, where Tullow shares a portion of its output with host governments in exchange for the right to operate oil fields. Additionally, Tullow may engage in partnerships and joint ventures with other oil companies, allowing for shared investment and risk in exploration and production activities. Factors contributing to Tullow's earnings include global oil prices, production efficiency, operational costs, and the successful development of new oil fields. The company also benefits from long-term contracts and relationships with various stakeholders in the oil industry.

Tullow Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating cash flow supports the business (cash flow score 75), but the balance sheet is a major risk due to high leverage and negative equity (balance sheet score 40). Profitability is thin with a low net margin despite a strong gross margin and inconsistent revenue trends (income statement score 60).

Income Statement

Tullow Oil's income statement shows fluctuating revenue and profitability. The gross profit margin for 2024 is approximately 49.1%, which is strong. However, the net profit margin is low at 3.6% due to significant expenses and interest burdens, reflecting operational challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, indicating volatility in business operations and market conditions.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a negative equity position, indicating financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, and the return on equity cannot be calculated. The company's financial structure is concerning, with liabilities exceeding assets, posing significant risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows strong operating cash flow, indicating robust cash-generating capacity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, highlighting effective cash management despite profitability issues. However, the declining free cash flow growth rate suggests potential future challenges in maintaining cash flow levels.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	981.40M	1.53B	1.63B	1.78B	1.29B	1.40B
Gross Profit	381.35M	754.00M	790.80M	1.09B	646.50M	402.50M
EBITDA	656.85M	1.11B	860.20M	1.20B	930.80M	-492.80M
Net Income	-171.75M	54.60M	-109.60M	49.10M	-80.70M	-1.22B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.61B	4.05B	4.46B	5.04B	5.54B	6.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	187.50M	548.60M	499.00M	636.30M	469.10M	805.40M
Total Debt	2.47B	2.71B	2.99B	3.46B	3.73B	4.39B
Total Liabilities	3.93B	4.32B	4.82B	5.50B	6.01B	6.77B
Stockholders Equity	-329.70M	-272.70M	-359.40M	-459.50M	-466.10M	-210.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	439.55M	534.00M	583.70M	771.40M	550.40M	267.70M
Operating Cash Flow	569.60M	758.50M	876.20M	1.08B	786.90M	698.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-107.15M	-213.10M	-268.50M	-356.20M	-101.70M	84.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-357.05M	-492.20M	-742.50M	-552.80M	-1.03B	-271.70M

Tullow Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 7.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TLW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.24, above the 50-day MA of 6.43, and below the 200-day MA of 11.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:TLW.

Tullow Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AET	76 Outperform	£109.46M	3.95	42.05%	―	50.35%	48.07%
PHAR	66 Neutral	£88.70M	21.21	1.91%	6.46%	-9.43%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
CNE	61 Neutral	£177.09M	-10.75	-6.29%	―	-32.66%	72.67%
TLW	56 Neutral	£110.63M	-0.70	―	―	-32.47%	-1490.91%
GENL	55 Neutral	£167.40M	-3.98	-11.54%	―	-0.20%	-25.68%
JSE	44 Neutral	£127.41M	8.36	56.01%	―	4.56%	―

Tullow Oil Corporate Events

Tullow Oil Announces CFO Share Vesting Under Employee Award Plan

Tullow Oil plc announced a transaction involving the vesting of 39,979 ordinary shares awarded to Richard Miller, the Chief Financial Officer, under the company’s 2014 Employee Share Award Plan. This transaction, conducted outside a trading venue, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to its employee incentive programs, which could impact stakeholder perception and employee motivation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Tullow Oil Appoints New Chair Amid Board Restructuring

Tullow Oil has appointed Roald Goethe as the new independent non-executive Chair of the Board, effective December 1, 2025, following the resignation of Phuthuma Nhleko. Goethe brings extensive experience in the African energy sector and has been a long-term supporter of Tullow. The company is undergoing a Board reset, with several directors stepping down, which is expected to reduce costs and streamline operations. This leadership change is part of Tullow’s strategy to strengthen its position in the African oil and gas sector and advance plans to refinance its capital structure, aiming to deliver value for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Tullow Oil Strengthens Financial Position with Strategic Asset Sales and Operational Focus

Tullow Oil has made significant strides in enhancing its financial stability and operational efficiency, particularly in Ghana, by selling its interests in Kenya and Gabon for a combined total of over $400 million. The company is focusing on optimizing production and managing natural decline in existing wells, while also planning new drilling activities. Tullow is addressing financial challenges by engaging with creditors and exploring refinancing options, aiming to maintain a sustainable financial footing. The company expects its 2025 production to be at the lower end of the forecasted range and is working to resolve outstanding receivables with the Government of Ghana.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights Update

Tullow Oil plc has announced its total voting rights as of October 31, 2025, with an issued share capital of 1,475,023,041 ordinary shares, all with voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their interests in the company under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.