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Afentra (GB:AET)
LSE:AET

Afentra (AET) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:AET

Afentra

(LSE:AET)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
56.00p
▲(33.33% Upside)
Afentra's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and attractive valuation, indicating a solid investment potential. However, technical analysis suggests caution due to bearish momentum. The company's strategic initiatives and corporate events further bolster its growth prospects, contributing positively to the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & Profitability
Afentra’s step-change revenue and near-29% net margin in 2024 reflect a durable improvement in operational performance and portfolio quality. Sustained high margins and the shift from prior losses create internal funding capacity for capex, reserve development and value-accretive growth without sole reliance on external financing.
Free Cash Flow Generation
Substantial free cash flow improvement demonstrates strong cash conversion and operational cash generation. This enhances the company’s ability to fund development, pay down debt, and pursue bolt-on acquisitions, increasing financial flexibility and resilience across commodity cycles over the medium term.
Manageable Leverage & Strong Equity
A modest Debt-to-Equity ratio and rising equity position signal a solid capital structure for an upstream operator. Manageable leverage supports funding of capital-intensive projects, improves lender and partner confidence, and reduces refinancing risk, underpinning sustainable investment in asset development.
Negative Factors
Rising Total Liabilities
The noted increase in total liabilities is a structural risk if it outpaces cash generation. Growing liabilities can compress liquidity, raise interest costs and limit capacity for capex or M&A. Over 2–6 months this could pressure flexibility and elevate refinancing or covenant risks if not controlled.
Geographic Concentration Risk
Concentration in African upstream assets exposes Afentra to region-specific political, regulatory and execution risks. Host-country policy shifts, permitting delays or local operational challenges can materially affect timelines and returns, making long-term cash flow and project delivery more dependent on regional stability.
Commodity Price Sensitivity
Afentra’s revenue model is directly linked to oil and gas prices, creating structural cash flow volatility. Prolonged price weakness can delay development, reduce FCF and strain debt servicing, while volatility complicates capital allocation and long-term planning for reserves development and maintenance.

Afentra (AET) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Afentra Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAfentra (AET) is an independent oil and gas company focused on acquiring and developing oil and gas assets in Africa. With a strategic emphasis on the exploration and production of hydrocarbons, Afentra operates primarily in the upstream sector, targeting regions with significant growth potential. The company aims to leverage its expertise to increase production and enhance asset value through efficient operational management and strategic partnerships.
How the Company Makes MoneyAfentra generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of oil and gas. The company makes money by selling crude oil and natural gas that it extracts from its licensed fields. Its revenue model is centered on the successful acquisition of oil and gas assets, followed by the efficient management and development of these assets to maximize production output. Key revenue streams include direct sales of hydrocarbons, potential joint ventures with larger oil companies for resource development, and strategic partnerships that enhance operational capabilities and access to markets. Additionally, Afentra may benefit from favorable commodity pricing, government incentives, and cost efficiencies in its operations, all contributing to its overall earnings.

Afentra Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Afentra's financial performance in 2024 reflects a transformative phase with substantial revenue and profit growth, improved margins, and a strong cash flow position. The company has achieved a sound balance between growth and financial stability. While the increase in liabilities requires attention, the overall outlook is positive, with continued focus on maintaining operational efficiency and managing leverage effectively.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Afentra has shown remarkable growth in total revenue, with a significant increase from $26.39 million in 2023 to $180.86 million in 2024. The company also achieved a strong net profit margin of 28.94% and a gross profit margin of 47.97% in 2024, indicating efficient cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 41.18% and 47.82%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. The transition from losses in previous years to substantial profitability highlights a positive trajectory.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Afentra maintains a healthy balance sheet with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.43, indicating manageable leverage levels. The company has strengthened its equity position, with Stockholders' Equity growing to $98.63 million in 2024, and an Equity Ratio of 43.52% suggests a solid capital structure. However, the increase in total liabilities may warrant close monitoring to prevent potential risks.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The cash flow position of Afentra is strong, with a significant free cash flow of $64.98 million in 2024, growing substantially from $8.96 million in 2023. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.63 indicates efficient cash generation relative to net income. The company has demonstrated strong free cash flow generation, supporting potential reinvestment and debt management strategies.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue161.74M180.86M26.39M0.000.000.00
Gross Profit68.92M86.74M13.82M-3.49K-2.73K-1.22K
EBITDA74.29M86.45M3.57M-8.64M-4.71M-2.17M
Net Income32.10M52.35M-2.71M-9.20M-5.04M-1.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets225.89M226.61M210.63M52.87M60.03M64.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments14.07M46.88M14.73M20.38M37.73M42.67M
Total Debt37.11M42.20M31.86M337.00K581.00K786.00K
Total Liabilities121.12M127.98M162.66M3.06M1.14M1.03M
Stockholders Equity104.77M98.63M47.97M49.81M58.89M63.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow32.49M64.98M8.96M-6.86M-4.71M-2.25M
Operating Cash Flow42.80M85.59M12.32M-6.70M-4.50M-2.15M
Investing Cash Flow-26.78M-53.55M-45.90M-10.28M-194.00K224.00K
Financing Cash Flow46.50K93.00K27.95M-225.00K-273.00K-283.00K

Afentra Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price42.00
Price Trends
50DMA
41.62
Positive
100DMA
44.01
Positive
200DMA
45.15
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.98
Negative
RSI
67.20
Neutral
STOCH
83.12
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:AET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.40, above the 50-day MA of 41.62, and below the 200-day MA of 45.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:AET.

Afentra Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
£110.82M4.0542.05%50.35%48.07%
72
Outperform
£65.98M7.005.26%-58.10%100.00%
66
Neutral
£87.46M21.411.91%6.46%-9.43%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
56
Neutral
£118.00M-0.83-32.47%-1490.91%
49
Neutral
£89.37M-20.50-19.12%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:AET
Afentra
49.80
2.10
4.40%
GB:BOR
Borders & Southern Petroleum
8.95
3.95
79.00%
GB:CASP
Caspian Sunrise
2.75
-0.15
-5.17%
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
8.11
-9.89
-54.94%
GB:AEX
Aminex plc
2.05
0.87
73.73%
GB:PHAR
Pharos Energy
21.80
-1.02
-4.45%

Afentra Corporate Events

Other
Afentra Discloses Athos Capital Stake Falls Below 3%
Neutral
Jan 26, 2026

Afentra plc reported that Athos Capital Limited has reduced its shareholding in the company to below 3% of the issued share capital, indicating a shift in the investor’s equity position. While the change does not alter Afentra’s operational footprint in Angola or its strategic focus on African upstream assets, it may be watched by shareholders as a signal of evolving institutional interest and liquidity in the AIM-traded stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:AET) stock is a Hold with a £48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afentra stock, see the GB:AET Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Afentra Sets Out Angola-Focused Growth Plan With Drilling and Fast-Track Developments
Positive
Jan 22, 2026

Afentra has outlined its near- and medium-term growth strategy in Angola as presented at the Pareto Energy Conference in London, emphasizing disciplined, value-driven development of its offshore and onshore portfolio following a recently announced 400% increase in 2C contingent resources. The company highlighted a planned 2026–2027 infill drilling and heavy workover programme on the producing Block 3/05 fields, including up to two new wells and three workovers in the Palanca field, which together could lift gross production by up to 12,500 barrels of oil per day and provide exposure to up to 120 million barrels of reserves and resources for an estimated gross capex of $115–130 million. Afentra also updated investors on plans to fast-track operated development of discoveries in Block 3/24 by leveraging existing infrastructure, with a Final Investment Decision targeted in late 2026, and outlined early production and exploration upside from its onshore Kwanza Basin assets, underscoring its transition into a next phase of production and reserves growth built on a growing pipeline of organic opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:AET) stock is a Hold with a £47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afentra stock, see the GB:AET Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Afentra Quadruples 2C Contingent Resources After Angola Portfolio Review
Positive
Jan 13, 2026

Afentra has reported a more than fourfold increase in its 2C working interest contingent resources to 87.3 million barrels of oil equivalent across Angola’s offshore Blocks 3/05, 3/05A and 3/24, following an independent audit by Sproule ERCE and internal assessments of recently awarded acreage. The upgrade, driven by undeveloped discoveries and early evaluations of Block 3/24, underlines substantial upside beyond currently booked volumes and is set to be further tested by a planned 2026–27 infill drilling and heavy workover campaign on the producing Block 3/05 fields, alongside efforts to mature near-field discoveries and onshore Kwanza Basin opportunities, potentially strengthening Afentra’s production profile and growth trajectory in Angola.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:AET) stock is a Buy with a £44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afentra stock, see the GB:AET Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Afentra exits Somaliland’s Odewayne Block to refocus on core Angolan assets
Neutral
Dec 18, 2025

Afentra plc has completed the divestment of its 34% non-operated participating interest in the high-risk frontier Odewayne Block in Somaliland to Petrosoma Limited, following formal approval from Somaliland’s Ministry of Energy and Minerals. As part of the transaction, Petrosoma assumes all past and future liabilities under the production sharing agreement, including environmental and decommissioning obligations, while Afentra has exited the asset entirely and will record a write-down of the US$21.5 million carrying value. Afentra has also received US$1.97 million from operator Genel Energy Somaliland Limited in settlement of carry obligations related to the interest, but no consideration from Petrosoma, underscoring that the move is driven by strategic portfolio rationalisation rather than immediate sale proceeds. The disposal removes a non-core, legacy exploration exposure that had generated no profit and allows management to sharpen its focus and capital allocation on core Angolan production and development assets, in line with the company’s disciplined approach to portfolio management and Africa-focused growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:AET) stock is a Buy with a £44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afentra stock, see the GB:AET Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Afentra Reports Strategic Progress and Financial Stability in 2025 Update
Positive
Nov 19, 2025

Afentra plc has announced several operational and financial updates, including the award of the Block 3/24 license with a 40% interest, and progress in the acquisition of Etu Energias, expected to complete in early 2026. The company reported stable production and significant revenue from crude oil sales, alongside strategic investments in infrastructure and drilling preparations. The updates indicate Afentra’s commitment to enhancing its production profile and presence in Angola, with plans for increased recovery and production growth. The appointment of Andrew Osborne as a Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Audit Committee further strengthens the company’s governance framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:AET) stock is a Hold with a £47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afentra stock, see the GB:AET Stock Forecast page.

Other
Afentra Announces Director-Related Share Purchase
Neutral
Nov 11, 2025

Afentra plc announced a transaction involving the purchase of 225,000 ordinary shares by Acorn Investment Management, a person closely associated with Andrew Osborne, a Non-Executive Director of the company. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange AIM market, reflects internal dealings that may impact investor perceptions and stakeholder confidence in the company’s governance and market activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:AET) stock is a Hold with a £47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afentra stock, see the GB:AET Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Afentra Strengthens Leadership with New Audit Chair Appointment
Positive
Nov 10, 2025

Afentra plc has appointed Andrew Osborne as an Independent Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Audit Committee, effective November 10, 2025. Osborne, with over 30 years of experience in the oil and gas sector, brings significant financial and governance expertise, which is expected to enhance Afentra’s governance framework and support its strategic focus on value-accretive opportunities in Africa.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:AET) stock is a Hold with a £47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afentra stock, see the GB:AET Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025