S4 Capital Plc (SFOR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £165.42M
• Dividend Yield: 6.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.31M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.54
• Revenue Growth: -14.27%
• EPS Growth: -15466.67%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 7,044
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 670,052,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,538,615
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,310,104
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.26
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £27.20
• Price Target Upside: 33.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: 26.00p ▲(27.45% Upside)

The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance—declining/volatile revenue, margin deterioration, negative profitability, and high leverage. Technicals are supportive (price above key moving averages with positive MACD) but are moderated by an overbought RSI. Valuation is mixed due to a negative P/E despite a high dividend yield, while the earnings call suggests stabilization efforts (cost cuts, wins, debt and cash flow improvement) but still guides to revenue decline.

Positive Factors

Improving cash generation & net debt reduction

A sustained move to positive free cash flow and a meaningful reduction in net debt materially lowers refinancing risk and interest burden. Over 2–6 months this strengthens financial flexibility, supports reinvestment in growth initiatives or targeted capital returns if debt falls below planned thresholds.

Major new client wins broaden revenue base

Landing large, diversified clients increases revenue visibility and reduces concentration risk. These durable client relationships support multi-period project pipelines, raise cross-sell potential across content and programmatic services, and help drive a more stable revenue mix over several quarters.

AI-driven products & partnerships

Proprietary AI tooling and tech partnerships create a scalable capability that can improve campaign efficiency and margins long-term. Differentiated tech (Monks.Flow) supports recurring productized services, increases switching costs, and positions the company to capture structural growth in data-driven marketing.

Negative Factors

Sustained revenue decline and volatility

Persistent top-line contraction undermines scale economics in a project-based model, reducing utilization and pricing leverage. Over the medium term this pressures margins, constrains reinvestment in product and talent, and increases dependence on new large client wins to restore growth.

Margin deterioration and negative profitability

Deteriorating gross and EBITDA margins indicate structural cost or pricing pressure. Continued negative profitability limits retained earnings, hampers investment capacity, jeopardizes dividend sustainability, and forces reliance on cash generation or external funding to support operations.

High and rising leverage with negative ROE

Elevated and rising leverage increases financial risk and interest expense sensitivity to macro shifts. Negative ROE reflects poor capital returns, constraining strategic flexibility and raising the probability management must prioritize deleveraging over growth investments in the coming quarters.

S4 Capital Plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

S4 Capital plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a digital advertising and marketing services company in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Content, Data & Digital Media, and Technology Services. The company offers contents, campaigns, and assets for paid, social, and earned media, such as digital platforms and apps, as well as brand activations. It also provides campaign management analytics, creative production and ad serving, platform and systems integration and transition, and training and education services. In addition, the company offers digital transformation services in delivering digital product design, engineering services, and delivery services. S4 Capital plc is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

S4 Capital generates revenue through its core services in digital marketing, which include creating and distributing digital content, programmatic advertising, and data-driven marketing solutions. The company's revenue model is predominantly project-based, where clients pay for specific campaigns or ongoing services. Key revenue streams include fees from content production, media buying commissions, and consulting services related to digital strategy. S4 Capital also benefits from long-term partnerships with major brands and companies, which provide a steady flow of contracts and projects. Additionally, the company's commitment to enhancing its technological capabilities and expanding its global presence contributes positively to its earnings, as it allows for more comprehensive service offerings and access to a broader client base.

S4 Capital Plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements indicate instability: volatile and declining revenue, deteriorating margins, and persistent negative profitability (negative net income/EBITDA margins). Balance sheet risk is elevated due to high and rising leverage with negative ROE, partially offset by a return to positive free cash flow in 2024 after 2023 weakness.

Income Statement

S4 Capital Plc's revenue has shown significant volatility, with a decrease from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin has deteriorated, and the company is facing challenges with profitability, evidenced by negative net income and EBITDA margins. The consistent negative net profitability over the years indicates ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a declining equity position and high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio that has been increasing over the years. Although the equity ratio remains reasonable, the high debt level poses a risk to financial stability. Return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's struggles with profitability.

Cash Flow

S4 Capital Plc's cash flow from operations has been inconsistent, with a return to positive free cash flow in 2024 after a negative figure in 2023. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is volatile, and the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in translating profits into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	786.10M	848.20M	1.01B	1.07B	686.60M	342.69M
Gross Profit	394.80M	754.60M	873.20M	126.22M	91.27M	53.03M
EBITDA	-245.20M	-232.30M	94.00M	-54.10M	14.09M	45.85M
Net Income	-315.50M	-306.90M	-6.00M	-160.50M	-56.72M	-3.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.28B	1.45B	1.72B	1.94B	1.69B	1.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	175.10M	168.40M	145.70M	223.57M	301.02M	142.05M
Total Debt	352.90M	349.90M	370.10M	385.30M	353.06M	119.40M
Total Liabilities	782.50M	867.80M	854.00M	1.09B	884.43M	454.61M
Stockholders Equity	501.50M	577.40M	865.80M	849.51M	801.14M	715.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	76.80M	53.10M	-16.60M	46.20M	34.52M	53.50M
Operating Cash Flow	79.80M	57.10M	-10.70M	64.10M	49.09M	60.93M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.60M	-12.30M	-13.30M	-139.79M	-106.62M	-130.71M
Financing Cash Flow	-13.20M	-44.50M	-43.00M	-32.40M	208.43M	145.85M

S4 Capital Plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SFOR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.59, above the 50-day MA of 19.53, and below the 200-day MA of 22.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:SFOR.

S4 Capital Plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PEBB	73 Outperform	£74.13M	13.48	7.09%	4.25%	1.24%	7.54%
WPP	71 Outperform	£2.77B	7.56	11.44%	9.68%	-4.54%	86.79%
NFG	68 Neutral	£293.49M	20.78	9.53%	4.98%	-5.98%	-74.21%
SAA	65 Neutral	£156.97M	21.12	18.23%	1.09%	-21.19%	-29.54%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
SFOR	54 Neutral	£165.42M	-0.49	-45.75%	6.33%	-14.27%	-15466.67%
EBQ	48 Neutral	£17.93M	-1.43	-37.24%	―	-0.79%	-100.22%

S4 Capital Plc Corporate Events

S4 Capital Beats 2025 Guidance, Cuts Leverage and Signals Confidence with Dividend

S4 Capital reported that its 2025 full-year trading performance exceeded the downgraded guidance issued in November and came in ahead of current market consensus on both net revenue and operational EBITDA, despite like-for-like net revenue declining by about 8.5% and margins settling around 12%. The group also sharply improved its balance sheet, with net debt projected to come in significantly below expectations and leverage reduced to around 1.1 times operational EBITDA, well under its 1.5 times target, and signalled confidence in its trajectory by proposing a final dividend of 1p, while flagging that further work is needed to restore revenue and margin growth in 2026 and beyond as clients navigate an uncertain macro backdrop and the adoption of emerging technologies.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SFOR) stock is a Hold with a £19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S4 Capital Plc stock, see the GB:SFOR Stock Forecast page.

S4 Capital Announces Total Voting Rights and Share Capital Structure

S4 Capital plc announced its total voting rights, with a share capital consisting of 670,052,897 ordinary shares and 1 B ordinary share, all with voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the FCA’s rules. The announcement reflects the company’s ongoing transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting shareholder engagement and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SFOR) stock is a Hold with a £20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S4 Capital Plc stock, see the GB:SFOR Stock Forecast page.

S4 Capital Revises 2025 Financial Forecast Amid Revenue Decline

S4 Capital Plc has announced a downward revision in its 2025 financial forecast, expecting a nearly 10% decline in like-for-like net revenue. This decrease is attributed to lower project-based revenue, client caution, and slower-than-expected new business growth, impacting the company’s operational EBITDA, now projected at £75 million, below market expectations. Despite these challenges, the company reports improved liquidity and maintains its year-end net debt target between £100 million and £140 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SFOR) stock is a Hold with a £17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S4 Capital Plc stock, see the GB:SFOR Stock Forecast page.

S4 Capital Announces Board Changes with New Appointment

S4 Capital Plc has announced changes to its board, appointing Alina Kessel as a Non-Executive Director effective November 14, 2025, while Elizabeth Buchanan will retire from the board by the end of the year. Alina Kessel brings over 25 years of experience in advertising and brand building, which is expected to enhance the company’s strategic direction in the digital marketing landscape. Elizabeth Buchanan’s departure is noted with appreciation for her contributions over six years, as she shifts focus to her role at Rokt. The board changes reflect S4 Capital’s ongoing commitment to strengthening its leadership and enhancing its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SFOR) stock is a Hold with a £22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S4 Capital Plc stock, see the GB:SFOR Stock Forecast page.

S4 Capital Announces Total Voting Rights Update

S4 Capital Plc announced its total voting rights, with the company’s issued share capital consisting of 656,791,170 ordinary shares and 1 B ordinary share. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their interest in the company’s shares under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. The announcement reflects S4 Capital’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, which is essential for maintaining investor confidence and supporting its strategic growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SFOR) stock is a Hold with a £23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S4 Capital Plc stock, see the GB:SFOR Stock Forecast page.

S4 Capital Plc Reports Mixed Q3 2025 Performance Amid Global Economic Challenges

S4 Capital Plc reported a mixed financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, with a slight increase in billings but a decline in revenue and net revenue. The company is experiencing challenges due to volatile global macroeconomic conditions and cautious client spending, particularly in technology services. Despite these challenges, S4 Capital is optimistic about future growth driven by new business wins and a focus on AI-driven solutions. The company maintains its operational EBITDA and net debt guidance, with expectations of improved liquidity and potential for an enhanced final dividend if targets are met.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SFOR) stock is a Hold with a £23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S4 Capital Plc stock, see the GB:SFOR Stock Forecast page.

S4 Capital Expands with New Share Issuance Post-Merger

S4 Capital Plc announced the issuance of 13,261,727 ordinary shares as a deferred consideration payment following the merger of TheoremOne and Media.Monks, enhancing Media.Monks’ Technology Services. The shares are set to be admitted to the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market, reflecting the company’s strategic growth and expansion in digital advertising and marketing services.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SFOR) stock is a Hold with a £23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S4 Capital Plc stock, see the GB:SFOR Stock Forecast page.