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Pennon Group PLC (GB:PNN)
LSE:PNN
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Pennon Group plc (PNN) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:PNN

Pennon Group plc

(LSE:PNN)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
490.00p
▲(6.06% Upside)
The overall stock score of 58 reflects a mixed outlook. The company's financial performance is challenged by declining profitability and increasing leverage, while technical indicators suggest a bearish trend. Valuation is difficult due to negative earnings, though the high dividend yield is a positive. The earnings call provided some optimism with strategic growth and investments, but operational challenges persist.

Pennon Group plc (PNN) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Pennon Group plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPennon Group Plc provides clean water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. It provides water and wastewater services for customers in Cornwall, Devon, and parts of Dorset and Somerset; water-only services in the areas of Dorset, Hampshire, and Wiltshire; and water and wastewater retail services to non-household customers in Great Britain. The company also offers regulated water to approximately 1.2 million customers in the Bristol region. It serves approximately 50 million household and non-household customers. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Exeter, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyPennon Group generates revenue primarily through the provision of water and wastewater services, which are regulated by Ofwat, the water services regulator in England and Wales. The company earns money from customer water bills, which include charges for water supply and sewage treatment. Additionally, Viridor contributes significantly to revenue through its waste management operations, which involve the collection, recycling, and energy recovery from waste. Partnerships with local authorities and businesses for waste services further enhance this revenue stream. Pennon also benefits from regulatory incentives for improving environmental standards and efficiency, which can lead to additional earnings through performance-based payments.

Pennon Group plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 03, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view, highlighting strong strategic growth through acquisitions and robust financial positioning, while also acknowledging operational challenges, particularly regarding pollution incidents and financial performance.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Top Quartile Regulatory Performance
Pennon Group delivered on 70% of stretching regulatory targets, placing them in the top quartile across the water sector.
Strategic Acquisitions and Growth
The acquisition of Sutton and East Surrey has been completed, with CMA approval obtained. The RCV has grown by 75% over the regulatory period, with 30% of that growth coming from acquisitions.
Strong Financial Position
A successful rights issue raised £490 million, contributing to a strong balance sheet with water group gearing at 61.8%.
No Hosepipe Ban Due to Improved Water Management
Significant investments have broken the drought cycle, eliminating the need for a hosepipe ban in the South West.
Record Capital Investment
The group invested £652 million in CapEx this year, positioning well for future delivery.
Negative Updates
Financial Loss Before Tax
The group reported a loss before tax of £35.1 million due to various factors including lower-than-anticipated water business wholesale revenues.
Pollution Incidents
Despite some improvements, pollution incidents remain a challenge with the anticipation of another 2-star rating from the Environment Agency.
Challenges in Water Quality and Leakage
Missed leakage targets for South West Water and Bristol Water, requiring further focus and improvement.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, Pennon Group's CEO Susan Davy and CFO Laura Flowerdew provided detailed guidance for the upcoming fiscal period. They highlighted the company's strong performance in the K7 regulatory period, achieving 70% of their ambitious regulatory targets, placing them in the top quartile of the sector. They also reported a stable EBITDA performance despite a challenging sector backdrop, with a full-year revenue of over £1 billion and a loss before tax of £35.1 million. The group invested a record £652 million in capital expenditures, primarily in the water business, and raised £490 million through a rights issue, ending the period with water group gearing at 61.8%. The company targeted a 7% return on regulated equity (RORE) for K8, with an emphasis on efficiency and innovation. Their strategic priorities include improving water resources, tackling storm overflows, driving environmental gains, and supporting customers, with a strong focus on affordability and service quality. The outlook for the next fiscal year anticipates a 2/3 increase in EBITDA and a robust return to profitability.

Pennon Group plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Pennon Group plc shows revenue growth but faces profitability challenges with declining net income and margins. The balance sheet indicates increasing leverage, posing potential risks. Cash flow concerns arise from negative free cash flow, although operating cash flow generation is a strength.
Income Statement
67
Positive
The company has shown a positive revenue growth trend, with a notable increase in total revenue from £624.1 million in 2021 to £1.048 billion in 2025. However, the net income has significantly declined, leading to a negative net profit margin in recent years. Gross profit margin remains strong, but declining EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate pressure on operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The debt-to-equity ratio has increased over the years, reflecting higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. The return on equity has suffered due to net losses, and while the equity ratio remains stable, the increasing liabilities are a concern.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Operating cash flow has declined, and free cash flow is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The company's increased capital expenditures are affecting free cash flow. However, the ability to generate operating cash flow relative to net income is a positive aspect.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue787.00M1.05B906.80M797.20M792.30M624.10M
Gross Profit748.30M995.90M856.00M506.70M532.30M411.60M
EBITDA216.40M302.90M319.90M261.00M368.60M310.50M
Net Income-44.10M-57.90M-9.50M100.00K15.40M79.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.05B7.05B6.23B5.19B5.34B6.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments417.90M417.90M145.40M165.40M519.00M2.92B
Total Debt4.54B4.54B3.97B3.13B3.20B2.85B
Total Liabilities5.60B5.60B5.07B4.06B4.06B3.44B
Stockholders Equity1.45B1.45B1.16B1.12B1.27B2.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-428.95M-575.10M-450.00M-173.70M25.90M15.90M
Operating Cash Flow78.65M93.50M148.90M157.50M254.90M206.20M
Investing Cash Flow-666.70M-676.40M-658.00M-330.50M-639.60M3.44B
Financing Cash Flow866.80M866.80M510.80M-180.60M-2.02B-1.43B

Pennon Group plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price462.00
Price Trends
50DMA
481.30
Negative
100DMA
479.20
Negative
200DMA
451.97
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-5.01
Negative
RSI
46.64
Neutral
STOCH
65.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:PNN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 462 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 469.24, below the 50-day MA of 481.30, and above the 200-day MA of 451.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:PNN.

Pennon Group plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
51.55B16.857.68%4.50%-7.42%5.84%
69
Neutral
18.33B15.349.86%3.85%-3.11%-31.10%
61
Neutral
7.84B29.2613.24%4.51%10.04%0.00%
60
Neutral
7.70B33.2312.95%4.76%3.78%50.18%
58
Neutral
£2.20B-4.44%7.39%15.42%-406.43%
52
Neutral
7.91B-34.1830.12%2.85%-4.82%-123.58%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:PNN
Pennon Group plc
462.00
10.08
2.23%
GB:CNA
Centrica
166.90
53.51
47.19%
GB:SVT
Severn Trent
2,535.00
2.67
0.11%
GB:SSE
SSE
1,665.50
-207.74
-11.09%
GB:UU
United Utilities
1,137.50
128.76
12.76%
GB:NG
National Grid
1,031.50
54.00
5.52%

Pennon Group plc Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Pennon Group Issues GBP 300 Million Fixed-Rate Notes
Positive
Sep 11, 2025

Pennon Group plc has announced the issuance of GBP 300 million in fixed-rate notes due 2031 through its subsidiary, South West Water Finance Plc. This financial move under its Euro Medium Term Note Programme is expected to bolster the company’s financial standing and support its long-term strategic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PNN) stock is a Buy with a £5.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pennon Group plc stock, see the GB:PNN Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Pennon Group Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Update
Neutral
Sep 1, 2025

Pennon Group plc announced its total voting rights and capital as of August 31, 2025, with an issued share capital of 471,978,443 ordinary shares and 5,628 shares held in treasury, resulting in 471,972,815 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, impacting how stakeholders manage their interests in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PNN) stock is a Hold with a £493.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pennon Group plc stock, see the GB:PNN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Pennon Group Announces Executive Share Awards
Neutral
Aug 28, 2025

Pennon Group plc announced transactions involving its top executives, CEO Susan Jane Davy and CFO Laura Flowerdew, who were awarded ordinary shares as part of the company’s 2025 AIBP. These shares are deferred for three years, reflecting a strategic move to align management incentives with long-term company performance. The transactions were conducted on the London Stock Exchange, indicating the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PNN) stock is a Hold with a £509.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pennon Group plc stock, see the GB:PNN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Pennon Group’s South West Water Finance Secures Approval for £2.5 Billion EMTN Programme
Positive
Aug 22, 2025

South West Water Finance Plc, a subsidiary of Pennon Group plc, has announced the approval of a £2.5 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme by the Financial Conduct Authority. This development is significant as it provides the company with a robust financial instrument to support its operations and strategic initiatives, potentially impacting its market positioning and offering new opportunities for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PNN) stock is a Hold with a £509.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pennon Group plc stock, see the GB:PNN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Pennon Group Executives Increase Stake in Company through Share Incentive Plan
Positive
Aug 20, 2025

Pennon Group plc announced that its Group Chief Executive Officer, Susan Jane Davy, and Group Chief Financial Officer, Laura Flowerdew, have both purchased ordinary shares as part of the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects a strategic move to align the interests of the company’s leadership with those of its shareholders, potentially strengthening stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PNN) stock is a Buy with a £6.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pennon Group plc stock, see the GB:PNN Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Pennon Group Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital
Neutral
Aug 1, 2025

Pennon Group plc has announced its total voting rights and capital as of July 31, 2025. The company’s issued share capital consists of 471,977,902 ordinary shares, with 5,628 shares held in treasury, resulting in a total of 471,972,274 voting rights. This figure is important for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PNN) stock is a Buy with a £8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pennon Group plc stock, see the GB:PNN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 18, 2025