Howden Joinery (HWDN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £4.27B
• Dividend Yield: 2.57%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.57
• Revenue Growth: 0.13%
• EPS Growth: -0.06%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 12,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
• EPS (TTM): 0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 539,037,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,331,594
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,746,713
• PEG Ratio: 2.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.87
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £991.67
• Price Target Upside: 24.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.51
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £2.53B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: 882.00 p ▲(10.94% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (stable revenues, healthy profitability, positive free cash flow) and a strong earnings-call read-through (margin gains, strong cash, continued shareholder returns). Offsetting factors are increased balance-sheet leverage in 2025 and a technically stretched setup (RSI ~73), while valuation looks reasonable but not notably cheap (P/E ~18.5; ~2.5% yield).

Positive Factors

Depot network scale & expansion

A large, expanding owned depot estate gives Howdens durable distribution advantage to serve trade customers locally. Continued openings and refurbishments increase market coverage and density, supporting repeat business, scale purchasing, and cost-efficient last‑mile fulfilment over coming years.

World‑class service & supply capability

Exceptionally high service reliability and in‑house manufacturing capacity reduce stockouts and delivery failures for trade customers. This operational consistency supports pricing power, customer retention and resilience versus competitors reliant on third-party logistics over the medium term.

Consistent cash generation & shareholder returns

A long track record of positive operating cash flow and material cumulative cash generation underpins financial flexibility to fund capex, depot rollout and shareholder returns. Reliable cash conversion supports strategic investment while returning capital to shareholders sustainably.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage in 2025

A material step‑up in debt reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and coverage risk if demand softens. Higher leverage limits the company's ability to absorb shocks, fund discretionary projects or sustain buybacks without persistent strong cash generation.

Sustained capex & working‑capital intensity

Material, recurring capex and rising working capital needs make free cash flow more sensitive to trade volumes and inventory cycles. This structural investment intensity constrains net cash build and raises the bar for consistent operating performance to fund growth and returns.

Competitive UK market pressure

A structurally competitive and potentially contracting UK market forces frequent pricing trade‑offs and margin management. Sustained promotional activity pressures gross and operating margins, requiring continuous product differentiation and local execution to protect long‑term profitability.

Howden Joinery Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Howden Joinery Group Plc, a trade kitchen supplier, provides various products across kitchens, joinery, and hardware in the United Kingdom, France, and Belgium. It offers kitchen cabinets, surfaces, fittings, storages, fitted kitchens, kitchen doors, sinks, and taps, as well as appliances; joinery products, such as sliding wardrobe doors, door fittings, stairs and parts, floors, skirting boards, mouldings, doors, and architrave products; and appliances, such as cooking, refrigerator, dishwasher, and laundry products, as well as coffee machines. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Howden makes money primarily by selling kitchens and joinery products through its depot network. Revenue is generated from (1) kitchen sales, including cabinetry and related kitchen components and, where sold, associated items such as worktops and appliances; and (2) joinery and other building-related product sales, including doors, flooring, and ironmongery. The company’s model is trade-focused: depots sell directly to professional customers (e.g., builders and joiners), and earnings are driven by sales volumes, product mix (kitchens typically higher value per project than many other joinery lines), and gross margin on sourced and distributed products. Howden captures value by controlling product specification and range (design/selection), sourcing/manufacturing arrangements (a combination of in-house and third-party sourcing, depending on product), and distribution via its owned depot estate, which enables local availability and service for trade customers. Profitability is influenced by factors such as pricing, input costs (materials, manufacturing/sourcing costs, and freight), demand in repair/maintenance/improvement and housing-related markets, and the scale/efficiency of the depot and supply chain network. Specific material partnerships or customer concentration details: null.

Howden Joinery Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid (income statement 78; cash flow 70) with stable revenue, healthy profitability, and consistently positive free cash flow. The main drag is balance-sheet risk (62) from a sharp increase in debt in 2025 alongside more muted profit and FCF momentum versus the 2022 peak.

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly stable with modest growth in 2024–2025 after a flat 2023, following a strong rebound in 2021–2022. Profitability remains solid with consistently strong gross profit levels, but operating and bottom-line profitability have eased from the 2022 peak (net income down from 2022 to 2024–2025), suggesting some margin pressure or cost normalization. Overall, earnings power is healthy, but recent growth and profit momentum are more muted.

Balance Sheet

The company has maintained a meaningful equity base and strong historical returns on equity (notably high in 2021–2024), which supports balance-sheet quality. However, leverage has increased sharply in 2025, with total debt rising materially versus prior years, which reduces financial flexibility and increases risk if trading conditions soften. Asset growth looks steady, but the step-up in debt is the key watch item.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid, with operating cash flow and free cash flow consistently positive across the period and strong absolute free cash flow in recent years. That said, free cash flow growth turned negative in 2025, and cash conversion is not consistently high (in prior years, free cash flow covered only about two-thirds to four-fifths of net income), implying working-capital or investment needs can meaningfully affect cash. Overall cash flow is good, but less predictable than top-tier generators.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.42B	2.32B	2.31B	2.32B	2.09B
Gross Profit	1.52B	1.43B	1.40B	1.41B	1.29B
EBITDA	526.10M	503.00M	485.30M	544.70M	515.10M
Net Income	267.70M	249.30M	254.60M	374.20M	314.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.35B	2.24B	2.06B	2.03B	2.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	344.50M	343.60M	282.80M	308.00M	515.30M
Total Debt	1.31B	681.00M	684.50M	665.30M	591.20M
Total Liabilities	1.16B	1.11B	1.09B	1.16B	1.06B
Stockholders Equity	1.19B	1.13B	978.40M	871.70M	991.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	342.30M	278.10M	253.40M	255.60M	351.50M
Operating Cash Flow	498.80M	400.10M	372.30M	396.40M	437.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-156.40M	-112.10M	-114.20M	-154.70M	-85.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-340.70M	-228.90M	-285.40M	-444.60M	-267.00M

Howden Joinery Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 795.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:HWDN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 795 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 868.43, below the 50-day MA of 860.18, and below the 200-day MA of 843.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -13.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:HWDN.

Howden Joinery Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CFX	78 Outperform	£56.82M	3.42	20.89%	0.55%	2.64%	23.89%
HWDN	72 Outperform	£4.27B	16.92	23.58%	2.57%	0.13%	-0.06%
DFS	68 Neutral	£345.47M	15.99	9.74%	―	4.38%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SDG	49 Neutral	£41.55M	9.31	-22.13%	3.45%	-4.23%	-435.86%
HEAD	47 Neutral	£35.07M	-0.69	-26.39%	―	-11.65%	-273.57%
VCP	43 Neutral	£26.13M	-0.14	67.51%	―	-9.72%	10.94%

Howden Joinery Corporate Events

Howden Joinery Publishes 2025 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM

Howden Joinery Group PLC has published its 2025 Annual Report and Accounts alongside the Notice of its 2026 Annual General Meeting and the associated proxy form, making these documents available to shareholders through the UK National Storage Mechanism and the company’s website. The AGM is scheduled to take place on 7 May 2026 in London, providing shareholders with a formal opportunity to review the company’s performance, exercise voting rights and engage with the board on governance and strategic matters.

The release underlines Howden’s adherence to UK listing and governance requirements by ensuring timely and broad access to key corporate documents, including options for hard-copy requests from the Company Secretariat. This level of disclosure and accessibility supports investor oversight, facilitates informed decision-making ahead of the AGM and reinforces the group’s standing as a transparent, shareholder-focused listed business.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWDN) stock is a Buy with a £917.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howden Joinery stock, see the GB:HWDN Stock Forecast page.

Howden Joinery Executives Add Shares Under Employee Incentive Plan

Howden Joinery Group PLC has disclosed routine share purchases by senior management under its Share Incentive Plan, in line with UK market abuse regulations. On 12 March 2026, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Livingston and PDMRs Austin Cooke and Julian Lee acquired small numbers of partnership shares at 858.6 pence each through the plan.

The transactions, involving purchases of between 11 and 18 ordinary shares per individual, reflect ongoing participation by top managers in the company’s all-employee share scheme. While modest in size, these dealings underline the continuing use of equity-based incentives to foster alignment between executives, employees and shareholders, and are formally reported to ensure transparency for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWDN) stock is a Buy with a £942.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howden Joinery stock, see the GB:HWDN Stock Forecast page.

Howden Joinery Confirms Updated Voting Share Capital for Transparency Filings

Howden Joinery Group PLC has reported that, as of 28 February 2026, its issued share capital comprised 541,517,203 ordinary shares of 10 pence each, of which 2,479,691 shares were held in treasury. This leaves 539,037,512 shares carrying full voting rights, a figure the company highlights as the benchmark for investors to assess and disclose significant holdings under UK transparency rules, providing clarity for shareholders and regulators on its capital base.

The disclosure underlines Howden’s compliance with the Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, ensuring up-to-date information on its voting share capital. By confirming the current denominator for ownership calculations, the announcement supports accurate monitoring of substantial shareholdings, which is important for institutional investors and market participants tracking governance and control dynamics at the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWDN) stock is a Buy with a £1095.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howden Joinery stock, see the GB:HWDN Stock Forecast page.

Howden Joinery lifts profit, margins and payouts as it expands depots and takes market share

Howden Joinery reported 2025 group revenue up 4.1% to £2.42bn, with UK sales rising 3.8% despite a soft kitchen market and international revenues climbing 13.5% as its model gains traction in France and Ireland. Gross margin improved by 110 basis points to 62.7%, helping lift profit before tax 5.1% to £344.9m and basic EPS 7.9%, while strong cash generation underpinned a higher total dividend of 21.9p and a new £100m share buyback for 2026.

Operationally, the group opened 23 new UK depots and three overseas, invested £156.5m in strategic initiatives including manufacturing upgrades and depot reformats, and launched new kitchen ranges and pricing tools to support trade customers. Management expects a flat UK kitchen market in 2026 but believes its depot network, efficiency gains and disciplined pricing leave it well placed to continue taking share and meet current profit expectations, reinforcing its competitive position and shareholder returns profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWDN) stock is a Buy with a £9.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howden Joinery stock, see the GB:HWDN Stock Forecast page.

Howden Joinery Executives Buy Shares Under Employee Incentive Plan

Howden Joinery has disclosed that Chief Executive Andrew Livingston and senior managers Austin Cooke and Julian Lee acquired small tranches of ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan on 12 February at 889 pence per share. The purchases, made from gross pay and reported under UK MAR rules, reinforce ongoing executive participation in the employee share scheme, signalling continued internal alignment with shareholder value despite the modest transaction sizes.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWDN) stock is a Buy with a £923.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howden Joinery stock, see the GB:HWDN Stock Forecast page.

Howden Joinery Reports No Share Issuance Under Employee Incentive Plans in Latest Block Listing Update

Howden Joinery Group Plc has reported that, over the six-month period from 1 August 2025 to 31 January 2026, there were no securities issued or allotted under its Long Term Incentive Plan, Co-Investment Plan or Share Incentive Plan, leaving the balances of unallotted securities under these employee share schemes unchanged at 13,907,734 for the LTIP, 3,027,538 for the COIP and nil for the SIP. The update indicates a steady state in the company’s equity-based remuneration structures during the period, with no additional dilution for shareholders arising from these schemes and no expansion of the existing block listings.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWDN) stock is a Buy with a £923.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howden Joinery stock, see the GB:HWDN Stock Forecast page.

Howden Joinery Confirms Updated Share Capital and Voting Rights

Howden Joinery Group PLC has confirmed that as of 31 January 2026 its issued share capital comprised 541,517,203 ordinary shares of 10 pence each, of which 2,479,691 shares were held in treasury. This leaves 539,037,512 shares with full voting rights, a figure that shareholders are advised to use as the denominator when assessing whether they must disclose holdings or changes in their interests under the Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWDN) stock is a Buy with a £923.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howden Joinery stock, see the GB:HWDN Stock Forecast page.

Howden Joinery Updates SIP Dealings for CEO and Senior Managers

Howden Joinery Group has disclosed routine share dealings by senior management under its Share Incentive Plan (SIP), through which eligible employees can buy ordinary shares from gross pay either as a lump sum or via monthly contributions. The company corrected an earlier notification to confirm that chief executive Andrew Livingston not only purchased 17 partnership shares at 859.3 pence each but was also awarded one matching share, while PDMRs Austin Cooke and Julian Lee acquired 11 and 17 partnership shares respectively, underscoring ongoing alignment of management interests with shareholders through equity-based incentives in compliance with UK MAR transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWDN) stock is a Buy with a £923.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howden Joinery stock, see the GB:HWDN Stock Forecast page.

Howden Joinery Executives Add Shares Through Incentive Plan

Howden Joinery Group PLC has disclosed that its chief executive officer Andrew Livingston and senior managers Austin Cooke and Julian Lee have acquired small numbers of ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The purchases, made on 16 January 2026 at 859.3 pence per share via the London Stock Exchange, are routine SIP acquisitions that modestly increase the executives’ equity exposure and signal ongoing use of share-based remuneration to align management and employee incentives with shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWDN) stock is a Buy with a £923.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howden Joinery stock, see the GB:HWDN Stock Forecast page.

Howden Joinery Confirms Voting Share Capital at Year-End 2025

Howden Joinery Group PLC has reported that its issued share capital as of 31 December 2025 comprised 541,517,203 ordinary shares of 10 pence each, of which 2,479,691 shares were held in treasury. This leaves 539,037,512 shares carrying full voting rights, a figure the company has highlighted for shareholders to use as the reference denominator when assessing whether they must disclose new or changed holdings under UK financial transparency rules, underscoring ongoing compliance with regulatory reporting requirements and providing clarity for investors on the company’s capital and voting structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:HWDN) stock is a Buy with a £923.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howden Joinery stock, see the GB:HWDN Stock Forecast page.