Cake Box Holdings (CBOX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £84.70M
• Dividend Yield: 5.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 33.83K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.31
• Revenue Growth: 36.73%
• EPS Growth: -18.26%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 173
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 44,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 31,317
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 33,826
• PEG Ratio: -18.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.69
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £62.50M

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: 227.00 p ▲(9.40% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/07/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/07/25

Cake Box Holdings demonstrates strong revenue growth and positive technical indicators, suggesting a favorable market position. However, financial challenges such as declining net profit margins and increased leverage pose risks. The attractive dividend yield provides some compensation for valuation concerns. Overall, the stock presents a balanced risk-reward profile with potential for growth.

Positive Factors

Franchise-based business model

A franchise-heavy model yields recurring royalty income and low corporate retail capex, enabling scalable store growth with franchisees bearing operating costs. Central supply sales add a steady revenue stream and control over product quality, supporting durable cash flow and margin resilience.

Strong revenue growth and high gross margin

Sustained top-line growth alongside a >50% gross margin indicates durable consumer demand and inherent product economics. High gross margin provides structural cushion for marketing, franchise support and supply chain investment, underpinning medium-term profitability even if SG&A fluctuates.

Solid operating cash generation

Robust operating cash flow supports working capital, supply chain operations and selective reinvestment without immediate reliance on external funding. Reliable cash generation underpins dividend capacity and franchise network support, improving resilience over the 2–6 month horizon.

Negative Factors

Rising financial leverage

Higher leverage raises fixed interest costs and reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Elevated debt levels constrain the company's ability to fund expansion, support franchised partners or pursue M&A, and increase sensitivity to interest-rate moves, creating a material medium-term funding risk.

Declining net and operating margins

Compression in net and operating margins suggests rising operating or financing costs eroding retained earnings. Sustained margin declines would limit reinvestment in brand and supply chain, weaken franchise economics and reduce the company's ability to absorb cost shocks over coming months.

Weaker free cash flow conversion

A ~20% drop in FCF and a 0.52 cash conversion ratio mean only about half of reported profit is converting to cash. This reduces capacity to delever, invest in growth or support franchisees, increasing reliance on external financing and raising structural funding risk in the medium term.

Cake Box Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cake Box Holdings Plc, through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail of fresh cream cakes in the United Kingdom. It offers cakes by celebration, cakes by design, and seasonal cakes, as well as wedding cakes. As of March 31, 2022, the company operated 185 franchise stores. It also engages in the property rental activities. Cake Box Holdings Plc was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Cake Box Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of its cakes and related products in its franchise stores. The company's revenue model is based on a combination of direct sales from its retail outlets and royalties and fees from franchise partners. Key revenue streams include retail sales, franchise royalties, and sales of cake decorating supplies and accessories. Additionally, Cake Box has formed partnerships with other businesses to expand its reach, including online delivery services and collaborations with local events, which further enhance its earnings. The company also benefits from brand loyalty and repeat customers, bolstering its financial performance.

Cake Box Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cake Box Holdings shows solid revenue growth and gross profit margins, reflecting strong market demand and cost management. However, declining net profit margins and increased leverage suggest potential financial challenges. The company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and cash flow management to sustain growth and enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Cake Box Holdings has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a notable 10.78% increase in the latest year. The gross profit margin has improved slightly to 52.49%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 10.22%, suggesting increased expenses or other financial pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, reflecting potential challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 0.80, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity has decreased to 16.20%, showing reduced profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 44.06%, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with room for improvement in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong, but free cash flow has decreased by 20.13%, indicating potential cash management issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, suggesting moderate cash generation efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.54, highlighting a need for better cash flow management to support profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	52.81M	42.78M	37.84M	34.80M	32.96M	18.74M
Gross Profit	27.09M	22.46M	19.61M	16.04M	14.85M	8.27M
EBITDA	8.99M	7.76M	7.72M	6.66M	8.80M	4.31M
Net Income	4.24M	4.37M	4.66M	4.24M	6.31M	3.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	60.23M	61.24M	30.74M	27.82M	25.90M	13.77M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.04M	6.33M	8.45M	7.35M	6.57M	3.68M
Total Debt	20.68M	21.50M	3.57M	3.94M	4.31M	1.61M
Total Liabilities	34.37M	34.25M	11.44M	10.08M	9.12M	4.29M
Stockholders Equity	25.87M	26.99M	19.30M	17.74M	16.78M	9.48M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.34M	3.53M	4.93M	4.19M	4.08M	2.05M
Operating Cash Flow	6.34M	6.60M	6.28M	6.15M	5.21M	3.32M
Investing Cash Flow	-25.41M	-25.15M	-1.14M	-1.90M	-1.12M	-587.78K
Financing Cash Flow	14.83M	16.42M	-4.03M	-3.47M	-2.65M	-2.14M

Cake Box Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 207.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CBOX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 207.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 196.20, above the 50-day MA of 198.82, and above the 200-day MA of 197.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.47 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:CBOX.

Cake Box Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PFD	76 Outperform	£1.58B	8.95	10.71%	1.62%	0.50%	20.52%
TSCO	74 Outperform	£29.80B	7.58	13.57%	3.25%	1.05%	-20.25%
CBOX	70 Outperform	£84.70M	11.22	16.03%	5.12%	36.73%	-18.26%
SBRY	70 Outperform	£7.41B	11.60	5.08%	4.02%	0.82%	160.81%
GRG	68 Neutral	£1.57B	14.01	27.24%	3.34%	8.06%	5.15%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
OCDO	54 Neutral	$1.59B	3.62	24.47%	―	―	―

Cake Box Holdings Corporate Events

Cake Box ties new executive share awards to ambitious EPS targets

Cake Box Holdings has granted 411,194 performance share options under its Long Term Incentive Plan to three executive directors, including CEO Sukh Chamdal, CFO Michael Botha and CCO Jaswir Singh, at an exercise price of 1p per share. The awards, valued in total at around £740,000, are structured to vest on a sliding scale based on earnings per share targets over three financial years, with a two-year post-vesting holding period and malus and clawback provisions to align management rewards with long-term shareholder returns.

The LTIP will see 25% of the awards vest if undiluted EPS reaches 18.04p in the third financial year, rising gradually to full vesting if EPS hits 20.54p, effectively tying senior executives’ upside to improved profitability. By setting explicit EPS hurdles and extended holding requirements, the company is signalling a commitment to disciplined performance management and long-term value creation, which may reassure investors focused on earnings quality and governance standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CBOX) stock is a Buy with a £227.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cake Box Holdings stock, see the GB:CBOX Stock Forecast page.