Ocado Group (OCDO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.59
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: UK
• Employees: 20,261
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 839,076,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,076,167
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,555,430
• PEG Ratio: -0.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -19.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.65
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.33
• 1Y Price Target: $200.49
• Price Target Upside: -19.32% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): -30.99
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $139.19B

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: 228.00p ▼(-8.25% Downside)

Ocado Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its challenging financial performance, with declining revenues and persistent losses. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, further weighing down the score. The absence of valuation metrics adds uncertainty, suggesting potential overvaluation. Despite some positive developments in the earnings call, such as revenue growth and strong liquidity, these are not enough to offset the financial and technical challenges.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The consistent revenue growth, particularly in Technology Solutions and Logistics, highlights Ocado's expanding market presence and adoption of its proprietary technology, supporting long-term business sustainability.

Strong Liquidity Position

A robust liquidity position provides Ocado with the financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt maturities, ensuring operational stability over the long term.

New Market Launches

Expanding into new markets like Korea and Saudi Arabia demonstrates the scalability and adaptability of Ocado's technology, potentially leading to increased international revenue streams.

Negative Factors

High Debt Levels

High leverage can constrain Ocado's financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term financial health.

Increased Service Delivery Costs

Rising service delivery costs due to wage increases could pressure margins, challenging Ocado's ability to maintain profitability and competitive pricing.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Persistent negative free cash flow indicates ongoing challenges in generating sufficient cash to cover capital expenditures, potentially hindering future investments and growth.

Ocado Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ocado Group plc operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ocado Retail, UK Solutions & Logistics, and International Solutions. It also sells general merchandise products on its Ocado.com; provides online retail solutions; and offers customer fulfillment centre and logistics services. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Hatfield, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Ocado Group generates revenue primarily through its grocery retail operations and technology solutions. The company's main revenue stream comes from online grocery sales, where it offers a diverse range of products sourced from various suppliers, including fresh foods, packaged goods, and household necessities. Additionally, Ocado licenses its proprietary technology and logistics solutions to other retailers, which provides a significant source of income. Strategic partnerships with notable grocery chains, such as Kroger in the United States, further enhance its earnings by expanding its reach and leveraging its technology in new markets. Ocado also benefits from economies of scale, as increased order volumes help to optimize its automated fulfillment centers, leading to higher margins on its products.

Ocado Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ocado Group is facing significant financial challenges with declining revenues and persistent losses. Despite improvements in operating cash flow, high leverage and negative free cash flow pose ongoing risks. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and reduce costs to improve profitability and financial stability.

Income Statement

Ocado Group has seen a decline in total revenue from the previous year, with the 2024 revenue dropping significantly by over 50%. The gross profit margin is unusually high due to total revenue and gross profit being equal, suggesting potential data issues. The company continues to face challenges with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins. This reflects ongoing operational inefficiencies and cost challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses long-term financial risks. Stockholders' equity has decreased over recent years, reflecting financial strain. However, the equity ratio indicates that equity financing still supports a substantial portion of total assets, providing some stability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has improved significantly, indicating better cash management. However, free cash flow remains negative, suggesting high capital expenditures and ongoing challenges in generating positive cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, which is a positive indicator of cash generation compared to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	345.50M	1.21B	2.83B	2.51B	2.50B	2.33B
Gross Profit	163.50M	106.60M	69.30M	629.20M	707.40M	636.50M
EBITDA	167.40M	127.90M	76.80M	-74.70M	124.10M	167.70M
Net Income	421.90M	-336.20M	-314.00M	-455.50M	-223.20M	-134.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.39B	4.16B	4.43B	4.81B	4.38B	4.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	745.80M	743.40M	884.80M	1.33B	1.47B	2.11B
Total Debt	1.79B	1.70B	1.96B	1.91B	1.83B	1.41B
Total Liabilities	2.64B	2.99B	2.92B	2.88B	2.67B	2.17B
Stockholders Equity	1.75B	1.19B	1.49B	1.84B	1.59B	1.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-23.80M	-130.50M	-454.20M	-760.40M	-698.00M	-214.00M
Operating Cash Flow	341.90M	268.90M	82.20M	25.50M	-7.30M	237.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-398.20M	-353.70M	-500.10M	-735.00M	-532.70M	-695.70M
Financing Cash Flow	65.50M	-24.30M	-10.10M	547.10M	282.50M	1.53B

Ocado Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 248.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:OCDO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 248.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 203.13, above the 50-day MA of 213.88, and below the 200-day MA of 260.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 10.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:OCDO.

Ocado Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSCO	74 Outperform	£28.14B	19.26	13.65%	3.22%	1.05%	-20.25%
GNC	70 Outperform	£1.14B	19.94	12.23%	0.76%	7.74%	30.09%
SBRY	70 Outperform	£7.20B	20.87	6.63%	4.03%	0.82%	160.81%
BME	66 Neutral	£1.64B	6.57	34.27%	17.32%	1.74%	-23.72%
BAKK	64 Neutral	£1.39B	37.48	5.88%	2.46%	0.59%	-41.66%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
OCDO	44 Neutral	$2.06B	―	―	―	―	―

Ocado Group Corporate Events

Ocado Secures $350M Payment from Kroger Amid CFC Closures

Ocado Group has announced a $350 million one-off cash payment from Kroger due to the closure of three Customer Fulfillment Centers (CFCs) and the cancellation of a planned site in Charlotte, NC. Despite these closures, Ocado continues to support Kroger’s operational efficiency and expansion, with new technologies being deployed across existing and upcoming CFCs, including the introduction of AutoFreezer technology in Phoenix, AZ. The financial impact includes a reduction in Ocado’s fee revenue by approximately $50 million for FY26, but the company remains focused on achieving positive cash flow through growth and cost discipline.

Ocado Group Announces Deputy CEO’s Share Vesting and Disposal

Ocado Group plc announced that James Matthews, Deputy CEO, had a partial vesting of shares under the Ocado Restricted Share Plan, resulting in an automatic disposal of shares to cover tax liabilities. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s ongoing executive compensation and shareholding management practices, which may impact stakeholder perceptions of corporate governance.

Ocado Group Announces Total Voting Rights and Shareholding Structure

Ocado Group plc has announced its total voting rights as of November 28, 2025, with 839,076,321 issued ordinary shares, each carrying one vote. The announcement highlights the shareholding structure, including shares held by trustees for employee benefit plans, and clarifies that certain shares are treated as treasury shares, affecting earnings per share calculations. This information is crucial for shareholders and stakeholders to determine their notification obligations under regulatory guidelines.

Ocado Executives Participate in Share Incentive Plan to Boost Alignment with Shareholders

Ocado Group plc has announced the participation of its key executives, including the CEO and CFO, in its Share Incentive Plan (SIP), which allows employees to purchase company shares at market value and receive matching shares. This move is part of Ocado’s strategy to align the interests of its management with those of shareholders, potentially enhancing the company’s operational focus and market competitiveness.

Ocado Group Anticipates Growth Amid Kroger CFC Closures

Ocado Group has announced that its partner, Kroger, will close three Customer Fulfillment Centers (CFCs) in Frederick, Pleasant Prairie, and Groveland by January 2026. Despite these closures, Ocado will continue to support Kroger’s operations in other locations and expects to receive over $250 million in compensation for early site closures, although it anticipates a reduction in fee revenue by approximately $50 million for FY26. The company remains optimistic about significant growth in the US market through both CFCs and store-based automation.

Ocado Group Re-Appoints Deloitte as External Auditor

Ocado Group plc has announced the re-appointment of Deloitte LLP as its external auditor following a competitive audit tender process. This decision aligns with the UK regulations requiring large companies to tender their statutory audits every 10 years. The re-appointment, effective from the financial year ending in 2027, is subject to shareholder approval at the 2027 Annual General Meeting, reflecting Ocado’s commitment to maintaining robust financial oversight.

Ocado Group Announces Key Directorate Changes

Ocado Group plc announced significant changes in its board of directors. Emma Lloyd will retire from the Board after nine years of service, and Neill Abrams, Group General Counsel and Company Secretary, will retire at the end of November 2025 after 25 years. Mollie Stoker has been appointed to replace Abrams, ensuring a smooth transition. Additionally, Andrew Harrison’s tenure as Senior Independent Director has been extended by 12 months, providing continuity during a period of significant change.

Ocado Completes Redemption of 2026 Senior Notes

Ocado Group PLC has announced the completion of the redemption of its 3.875% senior notes due 2026, effectively canceling all outstanding notes. This move led to the withdrawal of the notes’ listing from Euronext Dublin, potentially streamlining Ocado’s financial operations and impacting its market positioning by reducing debt obligations.

Ocado Group Announces Total Voting Rights Update

Ocado Group plc announced its total voting rights as of October 31, 2025, with 838,577,029 issued ordinary shares, each carrying one vote. The announcement details the shares held by various trustees and their voting rights, which are relevant for shareholders and stakeholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s rules.

Ocado Group to Redeem Outstanding Senior Notes

Ocado Group PLC has announced its intention to redeem all outstanding 3.875% Senior Notes due 2026, as per the indenture agreement dated 8 October 2021. This move, set to be completed by 10 November 2025, reflects Ocado’s strategic financial management and may impact its financial structure, potentially influencing stakeholder confidence and market positioning.

Ocado Group Directors Participate in Share Incentive Plan

Ocado Group plc announced the participation of its directors and senior management in the Ocado Share Incentive Plan (SIP), allowing them to purchase ordinary shares at market value and receive matching shares. This move, disclosed under regulatory requirements, underscores the company’s commitment to aligning the interests of its leadership with those of its shareholders, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence.

Ocado Group Announces Total Voting Rights Update

Ocado Group plc announced its total voting rights as of September 30, 2025, with 838,429,179 issued ordinary shares, each carrying one vote. The announcement outlines the distribution of shares, including those held by trustees for employee benefit plans, and clarifies that 10,646,045 shares are treated as treasury shares, impacting earnings per share calculations.

Ocado Executives Participate in Share Incentive Plan

Ocado Group plc announced the participation of its key executives, including the CEO and CFO, in the company’s Share Incentive Plan (SIP), which allows employees to purchase shares at market value and receive matching shares. This move is part of Ocado’s strategy to align employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing stakeholder value and reinforcing its market position.