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Ocado Group plc (GB:OCDO)
LSE:OCDO

Ocado Group (OCDO) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:OCDO

Ocado Group

(LSE:OCDO)

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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
228.00p
▼(-20.20% Downside)
Ocado Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its challenging financial performance, with declining revenues and persistent losses. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, further weighing down the score. The absence of valuation metrics adds uncertainty, suggesting potential overvaluation. Despite some positive developments in the earnings call, such as revenue growth and strong liquidity, these are not enough to offset the financial and technical challenges.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The consistent revenue growth, particularly in Technology Solutions and Logistics, highlights Ocado's expanding market presence and adoption of its proprietary technology, supporting long-term business sustainability.
Strong Liquidity Position
A robust liquidity position provides Ocado with the financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt maturities, ensuring operational stability over the long term.
New Market Launches
Expanding into new markets like Korea and Saudi Arabia demonstrates the scalability and adaptability of Ocado's technology, potentially leading to increased international revenue streams.
Negative Factors
High Debt Levels
High leverage can constrain Ocado's financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term financial health.
Increased Service Delivery Costs
Rising service delivery costs due to wage increases could pressure margins, challenging Ocado's ability to maintain profitability and competitive pricing.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Persistent negative free cash flow indicates ongoing challenges in generating sufficient cash to cover capital expenditures, potentially hindering future investments and growth.

Ocado Group (OCDO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Ocado Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOcado Group plc operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ocado Retail, UK Solutions & Logistics, and International Solutions. It also sells general merchandise products on its Ocado.com; provides online retail solutions; and offers customer fulfillment centre and logistics services. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Hatfield, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyOcado Group generates revenue primarily through its grocery retail operations and technology solutions. The company's main revenue stream comes from online grocery sales, where it offers a diverse range of products sourced from various suppliers, including fresh foods, packaged goods, and household necessities. Additionally, Ocado licenses its proprietary technology and logistics solutions to other retailers, which provides a significant source of income. Strategic partnerships with notable grocery chains, such as Kroger in the United States, further enhance its earnings by expanding its reach and leveraging its technology in new markets. Ocado also benefits from economies of scale, as increased order volumes help to optimize its automated fulfillment centers, leading to higher margins on its products.

Ocado Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 17, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with notable revenue growth and strong liquidity, contrasted by increased costs in service delivery and finance. The company is making strides in new market launches and improving productivity, but faces challenges in maintaining margins amid cost pressures.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Revenue increased by 13% overall, with Technology Solutions growing 15% and Logistics by 12%.
Improved Cash Flow
Underlying cash flow improved by GBP 93 million year-over-year.
Strong Liquidity Position
Liquidity reached GBP 1.2 billion, supported by a GBP 300 million raise and cash of GBP 866 million.
Technology Solutions Performance
Reported a GBP 73 million EBITDA with a mid-20% EBITDA margin.
Ocado Retail Revenue Growth
Ocado Retail reported a 16% revenue growth, with customer numbers and order frequency rising.
New Market Launches
Successful launches in Korea and Saudi Arabia, showcasing the flexibility of Ocado's solutions.
Strong Productivity Metrics
Luton site achieved 287 UPH, with potential to exceed 300 UPH, indicating improved labor productivity.
Negative Updates
Increased Service Delivery Costs
Service delivery costs rose by 24% due to national living wage and minimum wage increases.
Ocado Retail Gross Margin Pressure
Ocado Retail is investing heavily in price to gain customers, impacting gross margins.
High Finance Costs
Finance costs increased significantly due to higher debt coupons.
Ocado Retail Support Costs
Ocado Retail has elevated support costs due to dual running costs from system migrations.
Company Guidance
In the call, the Ocado Group emphasized several key metrics and strategic priorities. The company aims to become cash flow positive by fiscal year 2026 through disciplined capital allocation, lean operations, and enhanced execution. Revenue growth was reported at 13% for the first half, driven by a 15% increase in Technology Solutions and a 12% rise in Logistics. The company also achieved an underlying cash flow improvement of GBP 93 million year-over-year. Group adjusted EBITDA increased by GBP 40 million to GBP 92 million, with Technology Solutions contributing GBP 73 million of that and maintaining a healthy mid-20% EBITDA margin. Ocado's liquidity at the end of June was nearly GBP 1.2 billion, supported by a GBP 300 million revolving credit facility and GBP 866 million in cash. The company plans to manage its debt maturities through existing liquidity and improving cash flows, aiming for full-year cash flow positivity by 2027. Ocado's strategy includes evolving its commercial offerings, focusing on partner success, and adjusting exclusivity terms to foster new partnerships.

Ocado Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ocado Group is facing significant financial challenges with declining revenues and persistent losses. Despite improvements in operating cash flow, high leverage and negative free cash flow pose ongoing risks. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and reduce costs to improve profitability and financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Ocado Group has seen a decline in total revenue from the previous year, with the 2024 revenue dropping significantly by over 50%. The gross profit margin is unusually high due to total revenue and gross profit being equal, suggesting potential data issues. The company continues to face challenges with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins. This reflects ongoing operational inefficiencies and cost challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses long-term financial risks. Stockholders' equity has decreased over recent years, reflecting financial strain. However, the equity ratio indicates that equity financing still supports a substantial portion of total assets, providing some stability.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Operating cash flow has improved significantly, indicating better cash management. However, free cash flow remains negative, suggesting high capital expenditures and ongoing challenges in generating positive cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, which is a positive indicator of cash generation compared to earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue345.50M1.21B2.83B2.51B2.50B2.33B
Gross Profit163.50M106.60M69.30M629.20M707.40M636.50M
EBITDA167.40M127.90M76.80M-74.70M124.10M167.70M
Net Income421.90M-336.20M-314.00M-455.50M-223.20M-134.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.39B4.16B4.43B4.81B4.38B4.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments745.80M743.40M884.80M1.33B1.47B2.11B
Total Debt1.79B1.70B1.96B1.91B1.83B1.41B
Total Liabilities2.64B2.99B2.92B2.88B2.67B2.17B
Stockholders Equity1.75B1.19B1.49B1.84B1.59B1.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-23.80M-130.50M-454.20M-760.40M-698.00M-214.00M
Operating Cash Flow341.90M268.90M82.20M25.50M-7.30M237.80M
Investing Cash Flow-398.20M-353.70M-500.10M-735.00M-532.70M-695.70M
Financing Cash Flow65.50M-24.30M-10.10M547.10M282.50M1.53B

Ocado Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price285.70
Price Trends
50DMA
220.96
Positive
100DMA
237.96
Positive
200DMA
260.89
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
18.03
Negative
RSI
69.77
Neutral
STOCH
79.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:OCDO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 285.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 255.54, above the 50-day MA of 220.96, and above the 200-day MA of 260.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 18.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:OCDO.

Ocado Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
£26.78B18.3513.65%3.25%1.05%-20.25%
70
Outperform
£1.13B19.6412.23%0.79%7.74%30.09%
70
Outperform
£6.93B20.146.63%4.02%0.82%160.81%
66
Neutral
£1.68B6.7334.27%17.38%1.74%-23.72%
64
Neutral
£1.44B37.485.88%2.52%0.59%-41.66%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
44
Neutral
$2.31B
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:OCDO
Ocado Group
285.70
-39.30
-12.09%
GB:BME
B&M European Value Retail SA
170.75
-125.38
-42.34%
GB:SBRY
J Sainsbury plc
316.00
73.60
30.36%
GB:TSCO
Tesco plc
428.50
77.07
21.93%
GB:GNC
Greencore
275.00
92.74
50.88%
GB:BAKK
Bakkavor Group plc
252.00
112.89
81.15%

Ocado Group Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Confirms Total Voting Rights at Year-End 2025
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026

Ocado Group has confirmed that, as of 31 December 2025, it had 839,646,541 issued ordinary shares, each carrying one vote, and no shares held in treasury, establishing the company’s total voting rights at the same figure. Of these, 10,622,331 shares are held within employee share and benefit trust structures and are treated as treasury shares for accounting purposes under IAS 32, meaning they are excluded from earnings-per-share calculations and, in most cases, from voting and dividend rights. As a result, Ocado reports that shares in issue with aggregate exercisable voting rights total 829,024,210, a key denominator for investors and other stakeholders in assessing ownership thresholds and disclosure obligations under UK transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Sell with a £100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ocado Ends Key Exclusivity Deals, Opening Door to Wider Global Grocery Push
Positive
Dec 30, 2025

Ocado Group has confirmed that mutual exclusivity arrangements with retailers in most of its live markets, including its key US partner Kroger, have now ended, as previously signalled for completion by year-end 2025. The move frees the company to actively market its evolved suite of AI-driven and robotic fulfilment solutions to additional grocery retailers across multiple international markets, potentially accelerating commercial activity and expanding its global footprint in online grocery. Management emphasised that Ocado will continue to support existing partners while using its broader offering—spanning store-based and dark-store automation as well as automated customer fulfilment centres of various sizes—to help more retailers capture share in what it describes as the fastest-growing segment of the grocery industry as it enters 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Sell with a £100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ocado Group Announces Director Participation in Share Incentive Plan
Neutral
Dec 16, 2025

Ocado Group plc announced the participation of its directors and persons discharging managerial responsibilities in the Ocado Share Incentive Plan (SIP), a tax-advantaged all-employee share scheme. This initiative allows employees to purchase ordinary shares at market value and receive matching shares, aiming to align employee interests with company performance and potentially enhance stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Sell with a £100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Ocado Group Completes Redemption of 2025 Convertible Bonds
Neutral
Dec 9, 2025

Ocado Group plc has announced the redemption of its 0.875% Guaranteed Senior Unsecured Convertible Bonds due 2025, with an aggregate principal amount of £55.8 million. The redemption marks the maturity of these bonds, which have been fully redeemed and will be cancelled, leaving no outstanding bonds of this series.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Buy with a £305.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ocado Group Strengthens Board with New Appointment
Positive
Dec 8, 2025

Ocado Group has appointed Cathy Graham as an Independent Non-Executive Director, effective February 1, 2026. With a strong background in finance and technology leadership from her previous roles at Darktrace plc and 2U, Graham will join the People and Audit Committees. Her expertise is expected to enhance Ocado’s strategic direction as it continues its transformation from a UK online grocer to a global technology leader. This appointment underscores Ocado’s commitment to strengthening its board with experienced leaders to support its growth and innovation in the technology and logistics sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Hold with a £240.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Ocado Secures $350M Payment from Kroger Amid CFC Closures
Neutral
Dec 5, 2025

Ocado Group has announced a $350 million one-off cash payment from Kroger due to the closure of three Customer Fulfillment Centers (CFCs) and the cancellation of a planned site in Charlotte, NC. Despite these closures, Ocado continues to support Kroger’s operational efficiency and expansion, with new technologies being deployed across existing and upcoming CFCs, including the introduction of AutoFreezer technology in Phoenix, AZ. The financial impact includes a reduction in Ocado’s fee revenue by approximately $50 million for FY26, but the company remains focused on achieving positive cash flow through growth and cost discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Buy with a £290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Ocado Group Announces Deputy CEO’s Share Vesting and Disposal
Neutral
Dec 2, 2025

Ocado Group plc announced that James Matthews, Deputy CEO, had a partial vesting of shares under the Ocado Restricted Share Plan, resulting in an automatic disposal of shares to cover tax liabilities. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s ongoing executive compensation and shareholding management practices, which may impact stakeholder perceptions of corporate governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Hold with a £230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Group Announces Total Voting Rights and Shareholding Structure
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025

Ocado Group plc has announced its total voting rights as of November 28, 2025, with 839,076,321 issued ordinary shares, each carrying one vote. The announcement highlights the shareholding structure, including shares held by trustees for employee benefit plans, and clarifies that certain shares are treated as treasury shares, affecting earnings per share calculations. This information is crucial for shareholders and stakeholders to determine their notification obligations under regulatory guidelines.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Hold with a £230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ocado Executives Participate in Share Incentive Plan to Boost Alignment with Shareholders
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Ocado Group plc has announced the participation of its key executives, including the CEO and CFO, in its Share Incentive Plan (SIP), which allows employees to purchase company shares at market value and receive matching shares. This move is part of Ocado’s strategy to align the interests of its management with those of shareholders, potentially enhancing the company’s operational focus and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Hold with a £215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ocado Group Anticipates Growth Amid Kroger CFC Closures
Neutral
Nov 18, 2025

Ocado Group has announced that its partner, Kroger, will close three Customer Fulfillment Centers (CFCs) in Frederick, Pleasant Prairie, and Groveland by January 2026. Despite these closures, Ocado will continue to support Kroger’s operations in other locations and expects to receive over $250 million in compensation for early site closures, although it anticipates a reduction in fee revenue by approximately $50 million for FY26. The company remains optimistic about significant growth in the US market through both CFCs and store-based automation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Hold with a £215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Ocado Group Re-Appoints Deloitte as External Auditor
Neutral
Nov 17, 2025

Ocado Group plc has announced the re-appointment of Deloitte LLP as its external auditor following a competitive audit tender process. This decision aligns with the UK regulations requiring large companies to tender their statutory audits every 10 years. The re-appointment, effective from the financial year ending in 2027, is subject to shareholder approval at the 2027 Annual General Meeting, reflecting Ocado’s commitment to maintaining robust financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Hold with a £215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Ocado Group Announces Key Directorate Changes
Neutral
Nov 17, 2025

Ocado Group plc announced significant changes in its board of directors. Emma Lloyd will retire from the Board after nine years of service, and Neill Abrams, Group General Counsel and Company Secretary, will retire at the end of November 2025 after 25 years. Mollie Stoker has been appointed to replace Abrams, ensuring a smooth transition. Additionally, Andrew Harrison’s tenure as Senior Independent Director has been extended by 12 months, providing continuity during a period of significant change.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Hold with a £215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Ocado Completes Redemption of 2026 Senior Notes
Positive
Nov 11, 2025

Ocado Group PLC has announced the completion of the redemption of its 3.875% senior notes due 2026, effectively canceling all outstanding notes. This move led to the withdrawal of the notes’ listing from Euronext Dublin, potentially streamlining Ocado’s financial operations and impacting its market positioning by reducing debt obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Hold with a £194.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Group Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

Ocado Group plc announced its total voting rights as of October 31, 2025, with 838,577,029 issued ordinary shares, each carrying one vote. The announcement details the shares held by various trustees and their voting rights, which are relevant for shareholders and stakeholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Hold with a £252.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Ocado Group to Redeem Outstanding Senior Notes
Neutral
Oct 29, 2025

Ocado Group PLC has announced its intention to redeem all outstanding 3.875% Senior Notes due 2026, as per the indenture agreement dated 8 October 2021. This move, set to be completed by 10 November 2025, reflects Ocado’s strategic financial management and may impact its financial structure, potentially influencing stakeholder confidence and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Hold with a £252.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Group Directors Participate in Share Incentive Plan
Positive
Oct 16, 2025

Ocado Group plc announced the participation of its directors and senior management in the Ocado Share Incentive Plan (SIP), allowing them to purchase ordinary shares at market value and receive matching shares. This move, disclosed under regulatory requirements, underscores the company’s commitment to aligning the interests of its leadership with those of its shareholders, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:OCDO) stock is a Buy with a £3.56 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocado Group stock, see the GB:OCDO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 11, 2025