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Ocado Group
(LSE:OCDO)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
225.00 p
▲(20.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (improving cash generation but continued core operating margin pressure and meaningful leverage). Technicals are a tailwind with strong trend and positive momentum, while valuation is a headwind due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield. The latest earnings call adds moderate support via reaffirmed cash-flow-positive guidance and cost-saving execution, tempered by debt and timing risks.
Positive Factors
High‑margin Technology Solutions
Ocado’s Technology Solutions deliver structurally high contribution (~74%) and management targets ≥30% EBITDA. A software + automation licensing and support model scales with new modules and AMR sales, supporting durable margin expansion and recurring cash generation as deployments grow.
Negative Factors
High gross debt & interest burden
Elevated gross debt and sizeable interest costs increase refinancing and cash‑flow risk. The near‑term convertible and sustained interest expense constrain discretionary investment and make successful execution of cash‑flow improvement and debt reduction critical to avoid liquidity or covenant stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High‑margin Technology Solutions
Ocado’s Technology Solutions deliver structurally high contribution (~74%) and management targets ≥30% EBITDA. A software + automation licensing and support model scales with new modules and AMR sales, supporting durable margin expansion and recurring cash generation as deployments grow.
Read all positive factors
Ocado Group (OCDO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£2.03B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees21,367
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.30
Shares Outstanding843,511,840
10 Day Avg. Volume5,023,539
30 Day Avg. Volume4,501,746
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio9.62
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£208.57Price Target Upside11.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)£1.54B
Ocado Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ocado Group plc is a leading e-commerce business primarily engaged in selling groceries online, with operations spanning the United Kingdom and global markets. Its extensive activities are structured into three core divisions: Ocado Retail, UK Sol...
How the Company Makes Money
Ocado Group makes money primarily through two activities: (1) UK online grocery retail via Ocado Retail and (2) selling and supporting its technology platform and fulfillment solutions for partners.
1) UK online grocery retail (Ocado Retail JV wi...
Ocado Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 16, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational momentum in core areas: international volumes (+27%), notable retail performance (Ocado Retail revenue +15%, EBITDA +119%), improving productivity (UPH +12%, deliveries/van +6%), accelerating AMR sales and a strengthened commercial pipeline (Asda, Lotte, Coles, strong partner growth in Spain, Japan, Poland). Management has executed a structured cost reduction program with ~£150m annualized savings targeted and retains healthy liquidity (>£1bn). Key challenges remain: modest group revenue growth (+1% excluding closures), underutilized partner capacity limiting near‑term revenue conversion, delays/closures at some CFCs (Kroger/Sobeys impacts), elevated gross debt (~£1.44bn) and notable interest costs. Management reiterated guidance, expects to turn cash flow positive in H2 and be cash flow positive for FY2027, and outlined a credible path to materially reduce gross debt. Overall, positive operational progress and a clear plan to address financial challenges, but near‑term risks and timing of fee recognition remain.Positive Updates
Strong International Volume Growth
International volumes up 27% year‑on‑year (excludes closed Kroger and Sobeys CFCs). Management notes this represents robust underlying operational growth that will translate into higher revenue as partner sites draw capacity.
Negative Updates
Group Revenue and EBITDA Pressure in H1
Group revenue (excluding Kroger/Sobeys closure receipts) up only ~1% YoY. Group adjusted EBITDA £81m in H1, down ~£11m YoY. Underlying cash flow declined (~£39m lower YoY) and working capital outflow occurred in H1 due to timing of receipts/payments.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong International Volume Growth
International volumes up 27% year‑on‑year (excludes closed Kroger and Sobeys CFCs). Management notes this represents robust underlying operational growth that will translate into higher revenue as partner sites draw capacity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed its financial guidance: Ocado expects to turn cash‑flow positive in H2 FY2026 and be cash‑flow positive for full‑year FY2027, supported by targeted annualised cost savings of ~£150m and a live‑modules base of 120–125 (c.£4m contribution/module). FY2027 targets include Technology Solutions revenue ≈£500m with ≥30% EBITDA margin, Ocado Logistics high mid‑single‑digit revenue growth with 30–35% EBITDA, an underlying cash‑flow outflow of c.£200m, CapEx ≈£250m, tech/support spend ~£250m (≈£150m below FY2025), net interest c.£70–100m p.a., liquidity >£1bn (cash ~£765m) and gross debt £1.438bn with a plan to reduce toward ~£700–800m within 12–18 months.Ocado Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.74B | 1.38B | 1.21B | 2.83B | 2.51B | 2.50B |
| Gross Profit | 48.70M | 1.40B | 127.40M | 69.30M | 1.15B | 707.40M |
| EBITDA | 523.00M | 159.50M | 125.80M | 146.20M | -75.70M | 124.10M |
| Net Income | -249.30M | 405.20M | -336.20M | -314.00M | -455.50M | -223.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.17B | 4.28B | 4.16B | 4.43B | 4.81B | 4.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 764.60M | 754.40M | 743.40M | 884.80M | 1.33B | 1.47B |
| Total Debt | 1.73B | 1.79B | 1.70B | 1.96B | 1.91B | 1.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.60B | 2.72B | 2.99B | 2.92B | 2.88B | 2.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.57B | 1.56B | 1.19B | 1.49B | 1.84B | 1.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 222.10M | 152.50M | -130.50M | -454.20M | -760.40M | -698.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 419.60M | 371.20M | 268.90M | 82.20M | 25.50M | -7.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -276.10M | -412.20M | -353.70M | -500.10M | -735.00M | -532.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -119.40M | 14.80M | -24.30M | -10.10M | 547.10M | 282.50M |
Ocado Group Technical Analysis
Positive
186.90
Price Trends
192.93
Positive
194.97
Positive
208.30
Positive
Market Momentum
15.30
Negative
67.42
Neutral
83.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:OCDO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 186.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 208.84, below the 50-day MA of 192.93, and below the 200-day MA of 208.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 15.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:OCDO.
Ocado Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | £2.35B | 14.34 | 21.74% | 4.50% | 3.66% | -48.66% | |
71 Outperform | £28.75B | 17.09 | 16.05% | 3.02% | 5.43% | 15.57% | |
63 Neutral | £2.10B | 84.74 | 0.73% | 1.05% | 25.76% | -73.03% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | £2.03B | -8.16 | -15.94% | ― | ― | ― | |
56 Neutral | £7.49B | 20.37 | 6.12% | 7.16% | 2.54% | 12.99% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
GB:OCDO
Ocado Group
244.20
-109.10
-30.88%
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Ocado Group Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Clarifies Total Voting Rights and Share Capital Structure
Neutral
Aug 3, 2026
Ocado Group has confirmed its total issued share capital at 843,511,865 ordinary shares, each carrying one vote, with no shares held in treasury, establishing the formal base for voting power at its general meetings. Certain shares held in employe...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado awards free shares to top executives under all-employee incentive plan
Neutral
Jul 29, 2026
Ocado Group has granted free ordinary shares to senior executives under its all-employee Share Incentive Plan, a tax-advantaged scheme approved in 2011 that allows annual awards of shares up to a specified value. Chief Executive Officer Tim Steine...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado CEO Tim Steiner Extends Forward Share Sale Agreements
Neutral
Jul 24, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that its chief executive, Tim Steiner, has again amended long-standing forward sale agreements covering 14 million Ocado shares originally arranged in 2010 with his father, Nicolas Steiner. The CEO has agreed to delay com...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ocado to Build Automated Fulfilment Centre for Fast-Growing European Grocer
Positive
Jul 21, 2026
Ocado Group has agreed to build a large, highly automated Customer Fulfilment Centre for a fast-growing national retailer in Europe, deploying its latest Re:Imagined technology suite including 600s bots, On-Grid Robotic Pick and a fully automated ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Executives Add Shares Through All-Employee Incentive Plan
Neutral
Jul 16, 2026
Ocado has disclosed that Chief Executive Tim Steiner, Chief Financial Officer Stephen Daintith and Deputy CEO James Matthews have all acquired small amounts of Ocado ordinary shares through the company’s HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan. T...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Publishes Interim Results and Schedules Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jul 16, 2026
Ocado Group has published its interim results for the 26 weeks ended 31 May 2026, making the full report available via the London Stock Exchange and on its investor relations website. The filing has also been submitted to the Financial Conduct Aut...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Ocado Admits New Shares to London Market Under Restricted Share Plan
Neutral
Jul 7, 2026
Ocado Group plc has increased its issued share capital through the admission of 1,158,698 new ordinary shares of 2 pence each to trading on the London Stock Exchange. These shares were allotted under the Ocado Restricted Share Plan and are fungibl...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ocado Sets Timetable for CEO Succession as Founder Tim Steiner Plans Transition to New Role
Positive
Jul 6, 2026
Ocado Group has outlined the next phase of its long‑term leadership transition, confirming that founder Tim Steiner will remain chief executive officer through the start of the 2028 financial year while continuing to drive strategy, operatio...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
Ocado Group has reported that, as of 30 June 2026, it has 843,430,189 ordinary shares in issue, each carrying one vote, with no shares held in treasury and total voting rights matching the number of issued shares. The company notes that 10,568,237...
Business Operations and Strategy
Ocado Confirms Ongoing CEO Succession Planning Amid Media Speculation
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
Ocado Group has addressed recent media speculation by confirming that its chief executive officer and board are engaged in ongoing, long-term succession planning. The company said it regularly interacts with potential candidates as part of its gov...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Confirms Board Stability as Director Gavin Patterson Takes New Role at Reckitt
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
Ocado Group has announced that independent non-executive director Gavin Patterson will join the board of Reckitt Benckiser Group as a non-executive director from 1 July 2026, and will also serve on Reckitt’s remuneration committee. The Ocado...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado executives add shares through employee incentive plan
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that its chief executive Tim Steiner, chief financial officer Stephen Daintith and deputy chief executive James Matthews acquired ordinary shares in the company through its tax-advantaged Share Incentive Plan. The monthly...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Discloses Deputy CEO’s Share Award Vesting and Tax-Related Sale
Neutral
Jun 2, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that Deputy CEO James Matthews received ordinary shares following the partial vesting of an award under the Ocado Restricted Share Plan. The transaction, conducted on 1 June 2026 on the London Stock Exchange, resulted in ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Confirms Total Voting Rights and Share Count for Investors
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
Ocado Group has confirmed that as of 29 May 2026 it has 843,379,539 ordinary shares in issue, each carrying one vote, and holds no shares in treasury, establishing the official total voting rights for shareholders. A portion of these shares is hel...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ocado seals Asda ecommerce deal as group targets cash-flow positivity
Positive
May 29, 2026
Ocado Group has agreed an ecommerce partnership with Asda to overhaul the supermarket’s online grocery operations across the UK using the Ocado Smart Platform from 2027. The deal will see Ocado’s technology rolled out across Asda’...
Executive/Board Changes
Ocado Director Julie Southern Takes Senior Role at Johnson Matthey
Positive
May 28, 2026
Ocado Group has announced that independent non-executive director Julie Southern will take on an additional role as a non-executive director and senior independent director at Johnson Matthey from mid-July 2026. She will also join Johnson Matthey&...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Executives Add Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan
Positive
May 19, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that its chief executive Tim Steiner, chief financial officer Stephen Daintith and deputy CEO James Matthews have purchased ordinary shares under the company’s HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan. The plan enables mo...
Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Admits New Shares from Restricted Share Plan to LSE
Neutral
May 19, 2026
Ocado Group has increased its issued share capital by allotting 62,729 ordinary shares of 2 pence each under its Restricted Share Plan. The new shares, which are fully fungible with existing stock, have been admitted to trading on the London Stock...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.