Ocado Group plc (GB:OCDO)
LSE:OCDO
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Ocado Group
(LSE:OCDO)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
189.00 p
▲(1.72% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is held back primarily by volatile operating profitability and clear technical weakness (price below key moving averages with negative momentum). Offsetting factors include improving cash flow trends and a low P/E, while the earnings call adds moderate support via a detailed plan toward cash generation but with notable debt and execution risks.
Positive Factors
High Tech Solutions Margins
Sustainably high contribution margins in the tech solutions arm indicate strong unit economics for software and recurring services. If Ocado sustains >70% contribution and moves toward 75% as guided, the platform can generate durable, high-margin cash flows as module scale expands and recurring fees compound.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Near‑Term Maturities
Significant near‑term debt maturities combined with elevated finance costs raise structural refinancing and interest coverage risk. With debt‑to‑equity above 1 historically, the company remains reliant on capital markets or operational cash conversion to avoid dilutive or costly refinancing, a persistent balance‑sheet vulnerability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Tech Solutions Margins
Sustainably high contribution margins in the tech solutions arm indicate strong unit economics for software and recurring services. If Ocado sustains >70% contribution and moves toward 75% as guided, the platform can generate durable, high-margin cash flows as module scale expands and recurring fees compound.
Read all positive factors
Ocado Group (OCDO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.54B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.6
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees20,261
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.27
Shares Outstanding841,845,100
10 Day Avg. Volume5,023,539
30 Day Avg. Volume4,501,746
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio9.62
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£182.62Price Target Upside-1.71% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)£1.44B
Ocado Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ocado Group plc operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ocado Retail, UK Solutions & Logistics, and International Solutions. It also sells general merchandise p...
How the Company Makes Money
Ocado makes money primarily through two broad activities: (1) selling and operating its technology and automation solutions for grocery partners, and (2) its online grocery retail joint venture in the UK.
1) Technology Solutions (Ocado Solutions)...
Ocado Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive operational and financial progress — double‑digit revenue growth, strong performance at Ocado Retail, logistics productivity gains, and clear targets to reach cash‑flow positivity by H2 FY26/FY27 supported by a defined GBP 150m cost/capital reduction plan. At the same time, the company disclosed meaningful near‑term challenges: timing and accounting noise in cash flows, higher finance costs and upcoming debt maturities, North American site closures that reduced near‑term module utilization, and some rollout timing risk. On balance management presented a credible plan and tangible operational momentum, but execution risks (debt servicing, rollout timing and one‑off items) remain and will determine delivery against guidance.Positive Updates
Group Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Group revenue grew 12% year‑over‑year; adjusted EBITDA increased by GBP 66m to GBP 178m, reflecting stronger profitability across segments.
Negative Updates
Underlying Cash Flow Variability and Timing Effects
Underlying cash flow excluding a letter of credit was a GBP 230m outflow; after factoring in the letter of credit receipt (c. GBP 113m) the reported underlying cash flow position improved materially but highlights significant timing/one‑off impacts and accounting complexity that affect FY26 modeling.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Group revenue grew 12% year‑over‑year; adjusted EBITDA increased by GBP 66m to GBP 178m, reflecting stronger profitability across segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated guidance to turn cash flow positive in H2 FY26 with full‑year cash generation in FY27, targeting tech‑solutions revenue of c.£500m with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~30%, and at least 125–130 live modules (currently 121) by FY27 (targeting >130), which they expect to generate c.£400m contribution (c.£3m cash contribution per module) and to support circa 10% module growth; they plan to cut total tech spend plus SG&A from ~£400m in FY25 (tech spend was £248m) to c.£250m in FY27 (aggregate cost savings c.£150m, SG&A ~£50m lighter, tech spend down ~£100m over two years), run CapEx around £250m, model net interest of £80–100m, and expect a one‑off c.£200m outflow in the year they turn positive due to timing — while ending FY25 with c.£700m liquidity (bolstered by a £279m post‑year inflow) and planning to address near‑term maturities (including a £350m convertible due Jan‑27) from cash.Ocado Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.38B | 1.21B | 2.83B | 2.51B | 2.50B |
| Gross Profit | -190.00M | 106.60M | 69.30M | 629.20M | 707.40M |
| EBITDA | 182.80M | 127.90M | 76.80M | -74.70M | 124.10M |
| Net Income | 405.20M | -336.20M | -314.00M | -455.50M | -223.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.28B | 4.16B | 4.43B | 4.81B | 4.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 754.40M | 743.40M | 884.80M | 1.33B | 1.47B |
| Total Debt | 2.06B | 1.70B | 1.96B | 1.91B | 1.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.72B | 2.99B | 2.92B | 2.88B | 2.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.56B | 1.19B | 1.49B | 1.84B | 1.59B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 152.50M | -130.50M | -454.20M | -760.40M | -698.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 371.20M | 268.90M | 82.20M | 25.50M | -7.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -412.20M | -353.70M | -500.10M | -735.00M | -532.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 14.80M | -24.30M | -10.10M | 547.10M | 282.50M |
Ocado Group Technical Analysis
Negative
185.80
Price Trends
218.64
Negative
220.51
Negative
247.40
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.78
Positive
34.14
Neutral
20.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:OCDO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 185.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 196.71, below the 50-day MA of 218.64, and below the 200-day MA of 247.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:OCDO.
Ocado Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | £29.21B | 7.58 | 13.57% | 3.25% | 1.05% | -20.25% | |
70 Outperform | £1.91B | 17.26 | 12.23% | 0.79% | 7.74% | 30.09% | |
70 Outperform | £7.38B | 11.60 | 5.08% | 4.02% | 0.82% | 160.81% | |
66 Neutral | £1.59B | 12.40 | 34.27% | 17.38% | 1.74% | -23.72% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
52 Neutral | £1.54B | 3.62 | 24.47% | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
GB:OCDO
Ocado Group
185.80
-95.60
-33.97%
GB:BME
B&M European Value Retail SA
158.50
-87.48
-35.56%
GB:SBRY
J Sainsbury plc
332.00
114.89
52.92%
GB:TSCO
Tesco plc
459.60
139.30
43.49%
GB:GNC
Greencore
241.00
73.58
43.95%
Ocado Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Executives Add Shares Through Employee Incentive Plan
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that chief executive Tim Steiner, chief financial officer Stephen Daintith and deputy CEO James Matthews have all acquired ordinary shares through the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The HMRC-approved all-employee s...
Other
Rausing-Linked Trust Buys £3.6m Stake in Ocado Shares
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that Apple III Limited, a vehicle associated with non-executive director Jörn Rausing through the Apple III Trust, has purchased 1,789,302 Ocado shares. The transaction, conducted on 13 March 2026 on the London Stock...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Trust Linked to Ocado Director Buys £1.8m Stake in Group Shares
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that Apple III Limited, an entity owned by the Apple III Trust of which non-executive director Jörn Rausing is a beneficiary, purchased 910,698 Ocado ordinary shares on 11 March 2026. The transaction, executed on the...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Ocado Publishes 2025 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Mar 5, 2026
Ocado Group has published its Annual Report and Accounts for the 52 weeks to 30 November 2025 and released the formal notice and proxy materials for its 2026 Annual General Meeting. The AGM will be held on 28 April 2026 at the company’s Hatf...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Chair Adam Warby Buys 65,000 Shares in Market-Notified Deal
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that its chair, Adam Warby, purchased 65,000 ordinary shares in the company on 27 February 2026, at an average price of £2.176204 per share, for a total consideration of about £141,453. The trade was executed on...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Discloses Deputy CEO Share Award Vesting and Tax-Related Disposal
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that two awards under its Restricted Share Plan granted to Deputy CEO James Matthews partially vested on 2 March 2026, resulting in the acquisition of ordinary shares in the company. A portion of these newly vested shares...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Confirms Share Capital and Updated Total Voting Rights
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
Ocado Group has confirmed that as of 27 February 2026 it has 841,845,083 issued ordinary shares of 2 pence each admitted to trading, all carrying one vote, and none held in treasury by the company itself. A portion of these shares is held within e...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Publishes 2025 Preliminary Results and Schedules Investor Presentation
Neutral
Feb 26, 2026
Ocado Group has published its preliminary results for the year ended 30 November 2025, making the full report available via the London Stock Exchange and on its corporate website. The company has also lodged the unedited results with the Financial...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Executives Add Shares Through Routine Incentive Plan Purchases
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed routine share purchases by four senior executives under its HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan, an all-employee scheme that allows staff to buy Ocado ordinary shares at market value and receive additional matching shares....
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ocado CFO Stephen Daintith Takes Non-Executive Role at Kingfisher
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
Ocado Group has announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Stephen Daintith, has been appointed a non-executive director of Kingfisher from 1 April 2026, and will sit on Kingfisher’s audit and nomination committees. Daintith, who already se...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Confirms Total Voting Rights at Just Under 840 Million Shares
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
Ocado Group plc has confirmed that as of 30 January 2026 it has 839,698,441 issued ordinary shares, each carrying one vote at general meetings, and no shares held in treasury, establishing this number as the official total voting rights figure for...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ocado Resets Canadian Online Grocery Strategy with Sobeys as Calgary Fulfilment Centre Shuts
Negative
Jan 29, 2026
Ocado Group has reshaped its Canadian partnership with Sobeys after a strategic review of e-commerce demand, with Sobeys deciding to close its Calgary customer fulfilment centre due to slower-than-expected online grocery growth in Alberta, while c...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Updates Market on Share Allotments Under Employee Incentive Schemes
Neutral
Jan 27, 2026
Ocado Group has published its latest six‑monthly block listing return, detailing movements in shares reserved for a range of employee and executive incentive schemes, including its Sharesave, Share Incentive Plan, Executive Share Option Sche...
Other
Ocado Executives Add Shares Through Monthly Incentive Plan
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that several senior executives, including chief executive Tim Steiner, CFO Stephen Daintith, deputy CEO James Matthews and Ocado Intelligent Automation CEO Mark Richardson, have acquired small numbers of company shares th...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Confirms Total Voting Rights at Year-End 2025
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026
Ocado Group has confirmed that, as of 31 December 2025, it had 839,646,541 issued ordinary shares, each carrying one vote, and no shares held in treasury, establishing the company’s total voting rights at the same figure. Of these, 10,622,33...
Business Operations and Strategy
Ocado Ends Key Exclusivity Deals, Opening Door to Wider Global Grocery Push
Positive
Dec 30, 2025
Ocado Group has confirmed that mutual exclusivity arrangements with retailers in most of its live markets, including its key US partner Kroger, have now ended, as previously signalled for completion by year-end 2025. The move frees the company to ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.