Ocado Group plc (GB:OCDO)
LSE:OCDO
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Ocado Group
(LSE:OCDO)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
211.00 p
▲(3.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/02/26
The score reflects improving cash-flow trends and encouraging earnings-call guidance with a concrete cost-reduction path, offset by weak core operating profitability and leverage/financing risks. Technicals are mildly supportive but not a confirmed long-term uptrend, while valuation appears low but is tempered by earnings and cash-flow volatility.
Positive Factors
Tech Solutions Scale & Margins
Ocado Solutions displays durable platform economics: a growing installed base of automated modules with high contribution margins (~72% improving to >75%) creates recurring, asset-light revenue streams. Scalable module economics support long-term margin expansion and predictable cash per module as deployments mature.
Negative Factors
High Leverage & Near-Term Maturities
Leverage remains meaningfully elevated (debt-to-equity historically >1) and rising finance costs plus a large convertible due in Jan‑2027 constrain flexibility. Near-term refinancing or cash allocation choices create execution risk and could divert cash from investments or delay deleveraging efforts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Tech Solutions Scale & Margins
Ocado Solutions displays durable platform economics: a growing installed base of automated modules with high contribution margins (~72% improving to >75%) creates recurring, asset-light revenue streams. Scalable module economics support long-term margin expansion and predictable cash per module as deployments mature.
Read all positive factors
Ocado Group (OCDO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.74B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.1
Beta (1Y)1.31
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees20,261
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.46
Shares Outstanding843,379,500
10 Day Avg. Volume5,023,539
30 Day Avg. Volume4,501,746
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio9.62
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£267.50Price Target Upside31.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)£1.50B
Ocado Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ocado Group plc operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ocado Retail, UK Solutions & Logistics, and International Solutions. It also sells general merchandise p...
How the Company Makes Money
Ocado makes money primarily through two broad activities: (1) selling and operating its technology and automation solutions for grocery partners, and (2) its online grocery retail joint venture in the UK.
1) Technology Solutions (Ocado Solutions)...
Ocado Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive operational and financial progress — double‑digit revenue growth, strong performance at Ocado Retail, logistics productivity gains, and clear targets to reach cash‑flow positivity by H2 FY26/FY27 supported by a defined GBP 150m cost/capital reduction plan. At the same time, the company disclosed meaningful near‑term challenges: timing and accounting noise in cash flows, higher finance costs and upcoming debt maturities, North American site closures that reduced near‑term module utilization, and some rollout timing risk. On balance management presented a credible plan and tangible operational momentum, but execution risks (debt servicing, rollout timing and one‑off items) remain and will determine delivery against guidance.Positive Updates
Group Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Group revenue grew 12% year‑over‑year; adjusted EBITDA increased by GBP 66m to GBP 178m, reflecting stronger profitability across segments.
Negative Updates
Underlying Cash Flow Variability and Timing Effects
Underlying cash flow excluding a letter of credit was a GBP 230m outflow; after factoring in the letter of credit receipt (c. GBP 113m) the reported underlying cash flow position improved materially but highlights significant timing/one‑off impacts and accounting complexity that affect FY26 modeling.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Group revenue grew 12% year‑over‑year; adjusted EBITDA increased by GBP 66m to GBP 178m, reflecting stronger profitability across segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated guidance to turn cash flow positive in H2 FY26 with full‑year cash generation in FY27, targeting tech‑solutions revenue of c.£500m with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~30%, and at least 125–130 live modules (currently 121) by FY27 (targeting >130), which they expect to generate c.£400m contribution (c.£3m cash contribution per module) and to support circa 10% module growth; they plan to cut total tech spend plus SG&A from ~£400m in FY25 (tech spend was £248m) to c.£250m in FY27 (aggregate cost savings c.£150m, SG&A ~£50m lighter, tech spend down ~£100m over two years), run CapEx around £250m, model net interest of £80–100m, and expect a one‑off c.£200m outflow in the year they turn positive due to timing — while ending FY25 with c.£700m liquidity (bolstered by a £279m post‑year inflow) and planning to address near‑term maturities (including a £350m convertible due Jan‑27) from cash.Ocado Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.38B | 1.21B | 2.83B | 2.51B | 2.50B |
| Gross Profit | -190.00M | 106.60M | 69.30M | 629.20M | 707.40M |
| EBITDA | 182.80M | 127.90M | 76.80M | -74.70M | 124.10M |
| Net Income | 405.20M | -336.20M | -314.00M | -455.50M | -223.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.28B | 4.16B | 4.43B | 4.81B | 4.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 754.40M | 743.40M | 884.80M | 1.33B | 1.47B |
| Total Debt | 2.06B | 1.70B | 1.96B | 1.91B | 1.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.72B | 2.99B | 2.92B | 2.88B | 2.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.56B | 1.19B | 1.49B | 1.84B | 1.59B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 152.50M | -130.50M | -454.20M | -760.40M | -698.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 371.20M | 268.90M | 82.20M | 25.50M | -7.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -412.20M | -353.70M | -500.10M | -735.00M | -532.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 14.80M | -24.30M | -10.10M | 547.10M | 282.50M |
Ocado Group Technical Analysis
Negative
203.80
Price Trends
197.02
Positive
211.69
Negative
225.94
Negative
Market Momentum
2.39
Negative
48.48
Neutral
16.34
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:OCDO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 203.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 200.54, above the 50-day MA of 197.02, and below the 200-day MA of 225.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:OCDO.
Ocado Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | £28.21B | 16.14 | 16.05% | 3.25% | 5.43% | 15.57% | |
71 Outperform | £2.09B | 12.72 | 34.04% | 17.38% | 3.66% | -48.66% | |
69 Neutral | £1.53B | 155.83 | 0.73% | 0.79% | 25.76% | -73.03% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | £1.74B | 4.05 | 24.47% | ― | ― | ― | |
56 Neutral | £6.55B | 17.72 | 6.12% | 4.02% | 2.54% | 12.99% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
GB:OCDO
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199.90
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-22.10%
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GB:TSCO
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GB:GNC
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Ocado Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Discloses Deputy CEO’s Share Award Vesting and Tax-Related Sale
Neutral
Jun 2, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that Deputy CEO James Matthews received ordinary shares following the partial vesting of an award under the Ocado Restricted Share Plan. The transaction, conducted on 1 June 2026 on the London Stock Exchange, resulted in ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Confirms Total Voting Rights and Share Count for Investors
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
Ocado Group has confirmed that as of 29 May 2026 it has 843,379,539 ordinary shares in issue, each carrying one vote, and holds no shares in treasury, establishing the official total voting rights for shareholders. A portion of these shares is hel...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ocado seals Asda ecommerce deal as group targets cash-flow positivity
Positive
May 29, 2026
Ocado Group has agreed an ecommerce partnership with Asda to overhaul the supermarket’s online grocery operations across the UK using the Ocado Smart Platform from 2027. The deal will see Ocado’s technology rolled out across Asda’...
Executive/Board Changes
Ocado Director Julie Southern Takes Senior Role at Johnson Matthey
Positive
May 28, 2026
Ocado Group has announced that independent non-executive director Julie Southern will take on an additional role as a non-executive director and senior independent director at Johnson Matthey from mid-July 2026. She will also join Johnson Matthey&...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Executives Add Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan
Positive
May 19, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that its chief executive Tim Steiner, chief financial officer Stephen Daintith and deputy CEO James Matthews have purchased ordinary shares under the company’s HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan. The plan enables mo...
Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Admits New Shares from Restricted Share Plan to LSE
Neutral
May 19, 2026
Ocado Group has increased its issued share capital by allotting 62,729 ordinary shares of 2 pence each under its Restricted Share Plan. The new shares, which are fully fungible with existing stock, have been admitted to trading on the London Stock...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Confirms Total Voting Rights and Share Capital Structure
Neutral
May 1, 2026
Ocado Group has confirmed that as of 30 April 2026 it has 841,964,346 issued ordinary shares, each carrying one vote, and holds no shares in treasury, establishing the company’s total voting rights at the same figure for regulatory disclosur...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Ocado Wins Strong Shareholder Backing at 2026 AGM
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
Ocado Group shareholders endorsed all 22 resolutions at the company’s 2026 annual general meeting, including the receipt of accounts, reappointment of Deloitte as auditor, and strong backing for the board, with very high support for the elec...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Executives Add Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed routine share purchases by senior executives under its all-employee Share Incentive Plan, a tax-advantaged scheme that allows staff to buy company shares at market value and receive matching shares. Chief executive Tim St...
Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Admits New Shares to Trading Under Restricted Share Plan
Neutral
Apr 14, 2026
Ocado Group has issued 255,504 new ordinary shares of 2 pence each, which have been admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange under the Ocado Restricted Share Plan, bringing the total number of shares in issue to 841,898,939. The move refle...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ocado Grants CEO Tim Steiner Sharesave Option Under All-Employee Scheme
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
Ocado Group has reported the grant of a three-year Sharesave option to chief executive Tim Steiner, under its all-employee, tax-advantaged share scheme. The plan allows Steiner to acquire ordinary shares at a fixed option price, funded by monthly ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
Ocado Group plc has confirmed that as of 31 March 2026 it has 841,898,939 issued ordinary shares of 2 pence each admitted to trading, with each share carrying one vote at general meetings and no shares held in treasury. The group notes that 10,604...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ocado grants fresh long-term share awards to top executives
Neutral
Mar 30, 2026
Ocado Group has granted new share-based awards to senior executives under its 2025 Performance Share Plan and its Annual Incentive Plan, aligning management rewards more closely with long-term shareholder value. Chief executive Tim Steiner, chief ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ocado Executives Add Shares Through Employee Incentive Plan
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that chief executive Tim Steiner, chief financial officer Stephen Daintith and deputy CEO James Matthews have all acquired ordinary shares through the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The HMRC-approved all-employee s...
Other
Rausing-Linked Trust Buys £3.6m Stake in Ocado Shares
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that Apple III Limited, a vehicle associated with non-executive director Jörn Rausing through the Apple III Trust, has purchased 1,789,302 Ocado shares. The transaction, conducted on 13 March 2026 on the London Stock...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Trust Linked to Ocado Director Buys £1.8m Stake in Group Shares
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
Ocado Group has disclosed that Apple III Limited, an entity owned by the Apple III Trust of which non-executive director Jörn Rausing is a beneficiary, purchased 910,698 Ocado ordinary shares on 11 March 2026. The transaction, executed on the...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.