Tesco PLC (GB:TSCO)
LSE:TSCO
Want to see GB:TSCO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Tesco plc
(LSE:TSCO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
541.00 p
▲(11.50% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial execution (improving profitability and strong recent cash generation) and an attractive valuation (low P/E with a ~3% dividend). The earnings call reinforced confidence via upgraded cash outlook and continued buybacks, while leverage, thin margins, and cost/competitive pressures keep the score from moving higher; technicals are supportive but only moderately strong.
Positive Factors
Market share gains
Sustained share gains and improved NPS indicate durable customer preference and stronger value perception. That scale supports better supplier terms, distribution efficiencies and higher basket volumes, making Tesco more resilient to competition and better positioned to grow sales over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage
Elevated net debt and leverage reduce financial flexibility in a sector with thin margins. Higher indebtedness increases interest and covenant sensitivity, limits capacity for opportunistic investments, and raises refinancing risk if cash flow weakens or macro conditions deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Market share gains
Sustained share gains and improved NPS indicate durable customer preference and stronger value perception. That scale supports better supplier terms, distribution efficiencies and higher basket volumes, making Tesco more resilient to competition and better positioned to grow sales over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Tesco plc (TSCO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£30.48B
Dividend Yield3.25%
Average Volume (3M)14.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth5.43%
EPS Growth15.99%
CountryUK
Employees340,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.14
Shares Outstanding6,383,953,600
10 Day Avg. Volume15,586,105
30 Day Avg. Volume14,750,594
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.73
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio11.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£513.89Price Target Upside5.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)£74.76B
Tesco plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tesco PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in retailing and retail banking activities. It provides food products through approximately 4,752 stores in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary, as w...
How the Company Makes Money
Tesco makes money primarily by selling goods to consumers through its retail channels. Its main revenue stream comes from food and grocery sales in physical stores (superstores, supermarkets, and convenience formats) and through online grocery ord...
Tesco plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a solid operational and financial performance with broad-based sales growth, share gains, strong free cash flow and continued investment in value, quality, colleagues and sustainability. Management upgraded medium-term cash guidance and committed to further shareholder returns while retaining a strong balance sheet. Headline risks relate to elevated operating cost inflation, one-off adjusting charges, modest profit growth relative to inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty that widened next-year guidance. On balance the positives (market share gains, cash generation, reinvestment capability and new revenue streams) materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Market Share and Customer Satisfaction Gains
Reached highest market share in a decade with UK market share at 28.5% (total share gain of 120 bps over three years) and Ireland at 24.2% (+32 bps year). Net Promoter Score improved ahead of competitors, with better value perception driving sustained volume growth.
Negative Updates
Modest Operating Profit Growth vs. Inflationary Pressures
Adjusted operating profit growth was modest (GBP 3.15 billion, +0.6% CER) as sales growth and Save to Invest contributions were offset by elevated operating cost inflation and investments into price, quality and service.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Market Share and Customer Satisfaction Gains
Reached highest market share in a decade with UK market share at 28.5% (total share gain of 120 bps over three years) and Ireland at 24.2% (+32 bps year). Net Promoter Score improved ahead of competitors, with better value perception driving sustained volume growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided group adjusted operating profit of £3.0–£3.3bn for the year ahead, with free cash flow expected to sit within the upgraded medium‑term range of £1.5–£2.0bn per year; they expect c.£1.6bn of capital expenditure, announced a further £750m share buyback, and reiterated a roughly 50% dividend payout policy (proposed final dividend 9.7p, full‑year 14.5p, +5.8%). They plan to unlock a further £500m of Save to Invest savings next year, while highlighting balance‑sheet metrics of net debt £10.56bn (net debt/EBITDA 2.1x) and fixed‑charge cover 4.1x; last year’s free cash flow was £1.96bn (up 12%) and the group returned £2.4bn to shareholders this year (total buybacks since Oct‑2021 £4.3bn at an average £3.17).Tesco plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 73.71B | 69.92B | 68.19B | 65.76B | 61.34B |
| Gross Profit | 5.55B | 5.36B | 4.85B | 4.68B | 4.69B |
| EBITDA | 5.01B | 4.23B | 4.83B | 3.19B | 4.39B |
| Net Income | 1.79B | 1.63B | 1.19B | 737.00M | 1.48B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 39.47B | 38.89B | 47.04B | 46.13B | 49.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.16B | 4.63B | 4.67B | 4.45B | 4.65B |
| Total Debt | 15.08B | 14.67B | 14.84B | 15.08B | 15.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.02B | 27.23B | 35.37B | 33.90B | 33.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.46B | 11.67B | 11.67B | 12.24B | 15.66B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.80B | 1.68B | 2.45B | 2.56B | 2.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.14B | 2.92B | 3.84B | 3.81B | 3.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -943.00M | -441.00M | -1.70B | -790.00M | -1.77B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.09B | -2.94B | -1.86B | -3.19B | -2.23B |
Tesco plc Technical Analysis
Positive
485.20
Price Trends
477.13
Positive
457.02
Positive
444.26
Positive
Market Momentum
3.42
Negative
54.37
Neutral
58.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TSCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 485.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 474.09, above the 50-day MA of 477.13, and above the 200-day MA of 444.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:TSCO.
Tesco plc Risk Analysis
Tesco plc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesco plc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tesco plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | £30.48B | 17.50 | 16.05% | 3.25% | 5.43% | 15.99% | |
69 Neutral | £12.77B | 7.89 | 8.44% | 2.98% | -2.16% | -24.87% | |
68 Neutral | £1.67B | 14.01 | 20.47% | 3.34% | 6.79% | -20.45% | |
66 Neutral | £1.76B | 12.40 | 34.04% | 17.38% | 1.74% | -23.72% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | £7.44B | 20.67 | 6.12% | 4.02% | 2.54% | 12.99% | |
52 Neutral | £1.70B | 3.62 | 24.47% | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
GB:TSCO
Tesco plc
480.75
123.44
34.55%
GB:OCDO
Ocado Group
193.65
-87.65
-31.16%
GB:ABF
Associated British Foods
1,840.00
-162.95
-8.14%
GB:BME
B&M European Value Retail SA
164.00
-153.77
-48.39%
GB:GRG
Greggs plc
1,557.00
-228.52
-12.80%
GB:SBRY
J Sainsbury plc
327.20
80.92
32.86%
Tesco plc Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Updates £15bn Euro Note Programme with FCA-Approved Supplement
Positive
Apr 17, 2026
Tesco plc and its treasury subsidiaries have published a second supplement to their existing offering circular for a £15 billion Euro Note Programme, which is unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by Tesco plc for notes issued by the tre...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Tesco lifts profits and cash flow as value push drives highest market share in a decade
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
Tesco reported steady growth for the 53 weeks to 28 February 2026, with group sales excluding fuel rising 4.6% to £66.6bn and adjusted operating profit edging up to £3.15bn on a comparable 52‑week basis. Statutory operating profit ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Executives Acquire Shares Under Ongoing Incentive Plan
Neutral
Apr 13, 2026
Tesco has disclosed a series of routine share purchases by senior executives under its Share Incentive Plan, with trustees acquiring small parcels of ordinary shares on 10 April 2026 for six PDMRs, including Group CEO Ken Murphy and UK CEO Ashwin ...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Executives Acquire Shares Under Routine Incentive Plan
Neutral
Mar 16, 2026
Tesco has reported routine share purchases for several senior executives under its Share Incentive Plan, with trustees acquiring small amounts of ordinary shares on 13 March 2026 at a price of £4.808 per share. The transactions, involving the...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco CTO Guus Dekkers Sells £1.17m Stake in Share Deal
Neutral
Feb 25, 2026
Tesco plc has disclosed that Chief Technology Officer Guus Dekkers sold 233,727 ordinary shares in the company on 24 February 2026 at a price of £5.00 per share, for a total value of about £1.17 million. The transaction, executed on the ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Executives Add Shares Through Routine Incentive Plan Purchases
Neutral
Feb 16, 2026
Tesco has disclosed a series of routine share purchases by senior executives under its Share Incentive Plan, with trustees acquiring small numbers of ordinary shares on 13 February for Group CEO Ken Murphy and other top managers at a price of abou...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Confirms Total Voting Rights with Over 6.38 Billion Shares in Issue
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
Tesco plc has confirmed that as of 31 January 2026 its issued share capital comprises 6,385,182,796 ordinary shares of 6 1/3 pence each, with each share carrying one vote at general meetings and no shares held in treasury. The company said this to...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Executives Acquire Shares Under Company Incentive Plan
Neutral
Jan 20, 2026
Tesco has disclosed that several senior executives, including Group CEO Ken Murphy, Chief Technology Officer Guus Dekkers, Group General Counsel Kay Majid, UK CEO Ashwin Prasad, Central Europe CEO Jonny McQuarrie and Booker CEO Andrew Yaxley, have...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Tesco Cuts Share Count Further as £1.45bn Buyback Nears Completion
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
Tesco plc has continued execution of its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 429,649 ordinary shares on 19 January 2026 on the London Stock Exchange for cancellation, at an average price of 425.92 pence per share. Following this...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Advances £1.45bn Buyback With Further Share Cancellation
Positive
Jan 19, 2026
Tesco plc has continued executing its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 471,892 ordinary shares on 16 January 2026 on the London Stock Exchange at an average price of 423.82p per share, with all shares to be cancelled. Followi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.