Tesco PLC (GB:TSCO)
LSE:TSCO
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Tesco plc
(LSE:TSCO)
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Select Model
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
561.00 p
▲(18.58% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:12/07/25
Tesco plc's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance with some challenges in revenue growth and cash flow. The technical analysis suggests a positive momentum, and the valuation is fair. The earnings call provided a positive outlook with raised profit guidance, and the significant share buyback program enhances shareholder value.
Positive Factors
Market leadership and share gains
Tesco's >28% UK market share and 5.1% group sales growth indicate a durable leadership position. Scale delivers purchasing power, superior distribution economics and promotional reach, helping protect margins and volumes through competitive cycles and structural retail consolidation.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage / rising net debt
Net debt rising to ~GBP 9.9bn, partly driven by buybacks, raises structural financial risk. Higher leverage limits flexibility for M&A or investment, increases interest exposure and heightens sensitivity to margin or sales shocks, making long-term capital allocation more constrained.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Market leadership and share gains
Tesco's >28% UK market share and 5.1% group sales growth indicate a durable leadership position. Scale delivers purchasing power, superior distribution economics and promotional reach, helping protect margins and volumes through competitive cycles and structural retail consolidation.
Read all positive factors
Tesco plc (TSCO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£30.07B
Dividend Yield3.25%
Average Volume (3M)14.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.6
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth1.05%
EPS Growth-20.25%
CountryUK
Employees340,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding6,385,182,600
10 Day Avg. Volume15,586,105
30 Day Avg. Volume14,750,594
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.46
Price to Book (P/B)2.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio15.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£487.22Price Target Upside2.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)£74.60B
Tesco plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tesco PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in retailing and retail banking activities. It provides food products through approximately 4,752 stores in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary, as w...
How the Company Makes Money
Tesco generates revenue primarily through the sale of groceries and general merchandise in its retail stores, which include hypermarkets, supermarkets, and convenience stores. The company has several key revenue streams, including in-store sales, ...
Tesco plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 02, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong sales growth, market share gains, and customer satisfaction improvements, driven by strategic investments in pricing, product innovation, and online capabilities. Despite these achievements, the company faced challenges with increased net debt and operating cost pressures. Overall, Tesco's strategic initiatives have positioned it well for future growth.Positive Updates
Strong Group Sales and Market Share Growth
Group sales grew by 5.1% with a 4.3% increase in like-for-like sales. The company achieved market share gains, maintaining its leadership position, especially in the UK and Ireland, where sales grew by 5.6%.
Negative Updates
Increased Net Debt
Net debt increased by GBP 430 million to GBP 9.88 billion, partly due to the buyback program and the return of proceeds from the banking operations sale.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Sales and Market Share Growth
Group sales grew by 5.1% with a 4.3% increase in like-for-like sales. The company achieved market share gains, maintaining its leadership position, especially in the UK and Ireland, where sales grew by 5.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the call, Tesco provided guidance for the fiscal year, highlighting strong sales growth of 5.1% and an adjusted operating profit increase of 1.6%. The company emphasized its strategic investments in value, quality, and service, which have resonated with customers, leading to satisfaction gains and continued market share growth, particularly in the U.K. where their share surpassed 28%. Net Promoter Score reached a six-year high, and the company reported GBP 1.3 billion in free cash flow, maintaining a net debt of GBP 9.88 billion. Tesco raised its full-year adjusted operating profit guidance to between GBP 2.9 billion and GBP 3.1 billion, citing better-than-expected customer responses to their investments, strong cost control, and favorable weather conditions. The company also highlighted progress in its Save to Invest program, aiming for GBP 500 million in savings to offset cost pressures, and noted ongoing investments in online expansion and sustainable initiatives.Tesco plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2021 | Feb 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 71.18B | 69.92B | 68.19B | 65.76B | 61.34B | 58.09B |
| Gross Profit | 5.46B | 5.36B | 4.85B | 4.68B | 4.69B | 4.41B |
| EBITDA | 4.22B | 4.23B | 4.83B | 3.19B | 4.39B | 3.91B |
| Net Income | 1.52B | 1.63B | 1.19B | 737.00M | 1.48B | 971.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 39.51B | 38.89B | 47.04B | 46.13B | 49.35B | 53.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.57B | 4.63B | 4.67B | 4.45B | 4.65B | 5.42B |
| Total Debt | 14.97B | 14.67B | 14.84B | 15.08B | 15.36B | 17.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.71B | 27.23B | 35.37B | 33.90B | 33.71B | 39.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.81B | 11.67B | 11.67B | 12.24B | 15.66B | 13.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.79B | 1.68B | 2.45B | 2.56B | 2.61B | -1.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.15B | 2.92B | 3.84B | 3.81B | 3.79B | 108.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.52B | -441.00M | -1.70B | -790.00M | -1.77B | 2.34B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.07B | -2.94B | -1.86B | -3.19B | -2.23B | -1.94B |
Tesco plc Technical Analysis
Positive
473.10
Price Trends
464.36
Positive
453.64
Positive
439.59
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.80
Positive
52.28
Neutral
42.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TSCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 473.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 471.19, above the 50-day MA of 464.36, and above the 200-day MA of 439.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -1.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:TSCO.
Tesco plc Risk Analysis
Tesco plc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesco plc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tesco plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | £30.07B | 7.58 | 13.57% | 3.25% | 1.05% | -20.25% | |
70 Outperform | £7.54B | 11.60 | 5.08% | 4.02% | 0.82% | 160.81% | |
69 Neutral | £13.20B | 15.47 | 9.22% | 2.98% | -3.06% | -26.93% | |
68 Neutral | £1.55B | 14.01 | 20.47% | 3.34% | 8.06% | 5.15% | |
66 Neutral | £1.69B | 12.40 | 34.27% | 17.38% | 1.74% | -23.72% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
52 Neutral | £1.50B | 3.62 | 24.47% | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
GB:TSCO
Tesco plc
473.10
153.96
48.24%
GB:OCDO
Ocado Group
180.05
-115.05
-38.99%
GB:ABF
Associated British Foods
1,876.50
-25.53
-1.34%
GB:BME
B&M European Value Retail SA
168.50
-97.03
-36.54%
GB:GRG
Greggs plc
1,522.00
-196.21
-11.42%
GB:SBRY
J Sainsbury plc
339.00
123.92
57.62%
Tesco plc Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Executives Acquire Shares Under Routine Incentive Plan
Neutral
Mar 16, 2026
Tesco has reported routine share purchases for several senior executives under its Share Incentive Plan, with trustees acquiring small amounts of ordinary shares on 13 March 2026 at a price of £4.808 per share. The transactions, involving the...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco CTO Guus Dekkers Sells £1.17m Stake in Share Deal
Neutral
Feb 25, 2026
Tesco plc has disclosed that Chief Technology Officer Guus Dekkers sold 233,727 ordinary shares in the company on 24 February 2026 at a price of £5.00 per share, for a total value of about £1.17 million. The transaction, executed on the ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Executives Add Shares Through Routine Incentive Plan Purchases
Neutral
Feb 16, 2026
Tesco has disclosed a series of routine share purchases by senior executives under its Share Incentive Plan, with trustees acquiring small numbers of ordinary shares on 13 February for Group CEO Ken Murphy and other top managers at a price of abou...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Confirms Total Voting Rights with Over 6.38 Billion Shares in Issue
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
Tesco plc has confirmed that as of 31 January 2026 its issued share capital comprises 6,385,182,796 ordinary shares of 6 1/3 pence each, with each share carrying one vote at general meetings and no shares held in treasury. The company said this to...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Executives Acquire Shares Under Company Incentive Plan
Neutral
Jan 20, 2026
Tesco has disclosed that several senior executives, including Group CEO Ken Murphy, Chief Technology Officer Guus Dekkers, Group General Counsel Kay Majid, UK CEO Ashwin Prasad, Central Europe CEO Jonny McQuarrie and Booker CEO Andrew Yaxley, have...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Tesco Cuts Share Count Further as £1.45bn Buyback Nears Completion
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
Tesco plc has continued execution of its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 429,649 ordinary shares on 19 January 2026 on the London Stock Exchange for cancellation, at an average price of 425.92 pence per share. Following this...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Advances £1.45bn Buyback With Further Share Cancellation
Positive
Jan 19, 2026
Tesco plc has continued executing its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 471,892 ordinary shares on 16 January 2026 on the London Stock Exchange at an average price of 423.82p per share, with all shares to be cancelled. Followi...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Advances £1.45bn Buyback as Share Count Shrinks Further
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
Tesco plc has continued execution of its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 466,271 ordinary shares on 15 January 2026 on the London Stock Exchange at an average price of 428.93p per share, with all repurchased shares to be can...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Continues £1.45bn Buyback With Latest Share Repurchase
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
Tesco plc has continued its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, repurchasing 476,674 ordinary shares on 14 January 2026 at an average price of 419.57 pence per share, with all shares to be cancelled. Following this latest transaction, Tesc...
Stock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Tesco Continues £1.45bn Buyback with Further Share Purchases and Cancellations
Positive
Jan 14, 2026
Tesco PLC has continued its £1.45 billion share buyback programme by repurchasing 476,159 ordinary shares on 13 January 2026 at an average price of 420.03 pence per share, with the shares set to be cancelled. Following this latest transaction...
Stock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Continues £1.45bn Buyback as Share Count Falls to 6.39bn
Positive
Jan 14, 2026
Tesco plc has continued execution of its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, repurchasing 476,159 ordinary shares on 13 January 2026 at an average price of 420.03 pence per share for cancellation. Following this transaction, Tesco’s ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Advances £1.45bn Buyback With New Share Purchase and Cancellation
Positive
Jan 13, 2026
Tesco plc has continued its previously announced £1.45 billion share buyback programme by purchasing 479,901 ordinary shares on 12 January 2026 on the London Stock Exchange at an average price of 416.75p per share, with the shares to be cance...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Advances £1.45bn Buyback With New Share Repurchase and Cancellation
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
Tesco PLC has continued execution of its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, repurchasing 480,327 ordinary shares on 9 January 2026 at an average price of 416.38p per share. The shares, acquired via Citigroup Global Markets, will be cancel...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco CEO and CFO Increase Personal Stakes with Share Purchases
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
Tesco plc has disclosed that its Group Chief Executive, Ken Murphy, and Chief Financial Officer, Imran Nawaz, have each purchased 11,961 ordinary shares in the company at a price of £4.18 per share on 9 January 2026. The insider share purchas...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Advances £1.45bn Buyback With Further Share Purchases
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
Tesco plc has continued executing its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, repurchasing 475,248 ordinary shares on 8 January 2026 on the London Stock Exchange at an average price of 425.18 pence per share, with all shares bought to be cance...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tesco Lifts Earnings Outlook After Strong Christmas and Market-Share Gains
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
Tesco reported robust trading for the 19 weeks to 3 January 2026, with group like-for-like sales up 2.9% and particularly strong momentum in its core UK and Republic of Ireland businesses, which helped the retailer achieve its highest UK market sh...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Advances £1.45bn Buyback With Further Share Purchases and Cancellations
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
Tesco PLC has continued executing its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, repurchasing 443,118 ordinary shares on 7 January 2026 at an average price of 451.35p per share, with all shares to be cancelled. Following this latest transaction, ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Advances £1.45bn Buyback with New Share Repurchase and Cancellation
Positive
Jan 7, 2026
Tesco PLC has continued to execute its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, repurchasing 440,936 ordinary shares on 6 January 2026 at an average price of 453.58p per share, with all purchased shares to be cancelled. Following this latest tr...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Continues £1.45bn Buyback With Further Share Purchases for Cancellation
Positive
Jan 6, 2026
Tesco plc has continued execution of its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 454,043 ordinary shares on 5 January 2026 on the London Stock Exchange at an average price of 440.49 pence per share, with the shares to be cancelled. ...
Stock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Continues £1.45bn Buyback With Further Share Cancellation
Positive
Jan 5, 2026
Tesco plc has continued executing its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, repurchasing 451,485 ordinary shares on 2 January 2026 at an average price of 442.98p per share, with all shares bought to be cancelled. Following this latest transa...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Confirms Total Voting Rights and Share Capital at Year-End 2025
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026
Tesco plc has confirmed that its issued share capital as at 31 December 2025 comprised 6,390,728,499 ordinary shares, each carrying one vote at general meetings, and that it holds no shares in treasury. The company highlighted that this total shar...
Stock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Tesco Cuts Share Count Further as £1.45bn Buyback Nears Completion
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
Tesco plc has continued executing its previously announced £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 451,154 ordinary shares on 31 December 2025 on the London Stock Exchange at an average price of 443.31 pence per share, with all shar...
Stock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Nears Completion of £1.45bn Share Buyback as Share Count Falls
Positive
Dec 31, 2025
Tesco has continued executing its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, repurchasing 478,142 ordinary shares on 30 December 2025 at an average price of 440.99p per share through Citigroup Global Markets, with all purchased shares to be cance...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Extends £1.45bn Buyback With Further Share Repurchase and Cancellation
Positive
Dec 30, 2025
Tesco PLC has continued its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, repurchasing 528,137 ordinary shares on 29 December 2025 at an average price of 438.74p per share, with the shares to be cancelled. Following this latest transaction, Tesco...
Stock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Cancels Further Shares as £1.45bn Buyback Nears Completion
Positive
Dec 30, 2025
Tesco has continued executing its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, repurchasing 528,137 ordinary shares on 29 December 2025 at an average price of 438.74 pence, with the shares to be cancelled. Following this latest transaction, Tesco&#...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Reduces Share Count Further as £1.45bn Buyback Nears Completion
Positive
Dec 29, 2025
Tesco plc has continued executing its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 485,581 ordinary shares on 24 December 2025 at an average price of 439.08 pence per share, with all repurchased shares to be cancelled. Following this lat...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Continues £1.45bn Buyback With New Share Purchase and Cancellation
Positive
Dec 24, 2025
Tesco plc has continued to execute its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 468,913 ordinary shares on 23 December 2025 at an average price of 439.59p per share, with the shares to be cancelled. Following this latest transaction,...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Continues £1.45bn Buyback With Further Share Cancellation
Positive
Dec 23, 2025
Tesco PLC has continued execution of its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 755,304 ordinary shares on 22 December 2025 at an average price of 437.38 pence per share for cancellation. Following this latest transaction, Tesco...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesco Executives Acquire Shares Under Routine Incentive Plan
Neutral
Dec 22, 2025
Tesco has disclosed that several senior executives, including Group Chief Executive Officer Ken Murphy and other key regional and functional leaders, have acquired small numbers of ordinary shares through the company’s Share Incentive Plan&#...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Buys Back Further 725,540 Shares Under £1.45bn Programme
Positive
Dec 22, 2025
Tesco PLC has continued executing its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 725,540 ordinary shares on 19 December 2025 on the London Stock Exchange at an average price of 440.99p per share, with all shares bought to be cancelled....
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Tesco Nears Completion of £1.45bn Share Buyback With Further Share Purchases
Positive
Dec 19, 2025
Tesco PLC has continued its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 822,783 ordinary shares on 18 December 2025 on the London Stock Exchange at an average price of 439.67 pence per share, with all bought-back shares to be cancelled....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.