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Greggs PLC (GB:GRG)
LSE:GRG

Greggs plc (GRG) AI Stock Analysis

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Greggs plc

(LSE:GRG)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
2,228.00p
▲(12.30%Upside)
The overall stock score for Greggs plc is driven by its strong financial performance and valuation metrics, which are supported by robust profitability margins and a reasonable P/E ratio. Corporate events further enhance the company's outlook, reflecting confidence from leadership and successful strategic initiatives. Technical analysis presents mixed signals, with short-term weakness offset by medium-term strength.
Positive Factors
Expansion Plans
The business remains confident in opening 140-150 net new shops for the full year.
Growth and Performance
Greggs' FY24 PBT came in slightly ahead of consensus and represented a robust year of growth, with total sales up 11%.
Market Position
Greggs believes it has at least held market share through the period, based on external data and competitor trading trends.
Negative Factors
Consumer Confidence
The statement flags lower consumer confidence and more subdued High Street footfall.
Margin Pressure
Greggs' FY24 results highlighted continuing cyclical headwinds and pressure on FY26/27 margins from infrastructure build-out.
Sales Slowdown
A further slowdown in LFLs has been noted, impacted by a weaker weather-affected January.

Greggs plc (GRG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Greggs plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh and frozen bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks. The company sells products to franchise and wholesale partners for sale in their own outlets. It is also involved in the property holding, non-trading, and trustee businesses. The company operates approximately 2,200 shops and 375 franchise locations. Greggs plc was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreggs plc generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products and food-on-the-go items across its extensive retail network in the United Kingdom. Its key revenue streams include the direct sale of bakery goods, sandwiches, snacks, and drinks to consumers through its stores. Greggs also leverages its brand by expanding into new locations and optimizing its menu offerings based on customer preferences. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its market reach and operational efficiency. Factors such as competitive pricing, product innovation, and a focus on customer experience play significant roles in driving its earnings.

Greggs plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
TTMDec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.93B1.81B1.51B1.23B811.30M1.17B
Gross Profit
1.18B1.10B933.60M782.00M511.70M755.70M
EBIT
182.40M192.30M156.60M150.60M16.60M122.70M
EBITDA
319.30M323.60M271.30M260.40M106.40M225.40M
Net Income Common Stockholders
137.30M142.50M120.30M117.50M-13.00M87.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
88.20M195.30M191.60M198.60M36.80M91.30M
Total Assets
488.10M1.13B974.40M888.40M729.70M785.50M
Total Debt
0.00319.60M301.30M283.20M291.70M275.70M
Net Debt
-88.20M124.30M109.70M84.60M254.90M184.40M
Total Liabilities
159.00M598.80M525.60M456.00M404.40M440.20M
Stockholders Equity
329.10M530.90M446.00M429.20M321.60M341.10M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
155.60M112.70M149.60M231.20M-17.40M130.30M
Operating Cash Flow
358.90M310.80M252.90M285.50M44.20M219.40M
Investing Cash Flow
-201.20M-191.20M-100.80M-54.00M-59.80M-87.70M
Financing Cash Flow
-154.80M-115.90M-159.10M-69.70M-38.90M-128.60M

Greggs plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1984.00
Price Trends
50DMA
1882.88
Positive
100DMA
1916.91
Positive
200DMA
2331.14
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
23.06
Positive
RSI
50.58
Neutral
STOCH
19.76
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1984 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2041.35, above the 50-day MA of 1882.88, and below the 200-day MA of 2331.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 23.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GRG.

Greggs plc Risk Analysis

Greggs plc disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greggs plc reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Greggs plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBMER
79
Outperform
£339.77M7.7124.38%1.16%3.96%62.25%
79
Outperform
£82.50M15.1527.25%3.63%7.46%9.36%
GBGRG
76
Outperform
£2.02B13.1727.86%1.91%11.32%7.29%
GBJDW
73
Outperform
£799.95M14.1216.38%0.54%3.70%57.10%
GBDOM
66
Neutral
£1.02B11.33
5.75%-2.25%-18.24%
GBGLE
64
Neutral
£221.83M13.415.65%2.02%13.91%-2.75%
63
Neutral
$6.94B11.342.80%4.26%2.68%-24.70%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:GRG
Greggs plc
1,984.00
-733.95
-27.00%
GB:DOM
Domino's Pizza
257.80
-40.88
-13.69%
GB:MER
Mears Group Plc
399.00
48.17
13.73%
GB:GLE
MJ Gleeson PLC
386.00
-153.05
-28.39%
GB:JDW
J D Wetherspoon
723.00
14.21
2.00%
GB:CBOX
Cake Box Holdings
187.50
23.52
14.34%

Greggs plc Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Greggs plc Successfully Passes All Resolutions at 2025 AGM
Positive
May 21, 2025

At its 2025 Annual General Meeting, Greggs plc announced that all resolutions presented were successfully passed through a poll vote. Key resolutions included the approval of the annual report, auditor appointments, dividend declarations, and the re-election of several board members. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company for continued stability and growth. The decisions made at the AGM are expected to positively impact Greggs’ operational strategies and reinforce its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greggs Reports Strong Sales Growth and Expansion Plans Amid Challenging Market
Positive
May 20, 2025

Greggs plc reported a 7.4% increase in total sales to £784 million for the first 20 weeks of 2025, driven by a 2.9% like-for-like sales growth in company-managed shops. The company opened 66 new shops, with a net increase of 20, and is on track for 140-150 net openings by year-end. Product innovation, including new over-ice drinks and viral food items like Mac and Cheese, has bolstered sales. Despite a challenging market, Greggs maintains its full-year expectations unchanged, with ongoing investments in supply chain capacity and new facilities progressing as planned.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
Greggs plc Announces 2024 Financial Report and AGM Date
Neutral
Apr 16, 2025

Greggs plc has released its Annual Financial Report for 2024 and announced the date for its upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM). The AGM is scheduled for 21 May 2025 at The Grand Hotel High Gosforth Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. This announcement ensures transparency and keeps shareholders informed about the company’s financial performance and upcoming corporate events, reinforcing Greggs’ commitment to stakeholder engagement.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
Greggs plc Releases 2024 Financial Report and Announces AGM Date
Neutral
Apr 16, 2025

Greggs plc has released its Annual Financial Report for 2024 and announced the date for its upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM). The AGM is scheduled for 21 May 2025 at The Grand Hotel High Gosforth Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. Shareholders who requested hard copies have been provided with the documents, which are also accessible via the National Storage Mechanism and the company’s website. This announcement is part of Greggs’ ongoing commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement, ensuring stakeholders are informed of the company’s financial performance and strategic decisions.

Business Operations and Strategy
Greggs Advances Sustainability Goals with 2024 Report
Positive
Apr 16, 2025

Greggs has published its 2024 sustainability report, highlighting significant progress in its five-year sustainability plan, The Greggs Pledge, which aligns with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Key achievements include opening over 1,000 Breakfast Clubs, donating one million meals to FareShare, and securing a top four ranking in the Business Benchmark on Farm Animal Welfare. The company has also introduced heat-resistant recycled PET lids and expanded its Outlet shops to 38 locations. Greggs aims to continue its sustainability efforts by setting clear targets for 2025, such as reducing food waste, increasing renewable energy use, and enhancing its Eco-Shop design.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Greggs plc Announces Share Options for Finance Director
Neutral
Mar 26, 2025

Greggs plc announced a transaction involving Richard Hutton, the Finance Director, who acquired options over 36,582 ordinary shares under the company’s Performance Share Plan. This move, with options granted at no exercise price, indicates a strategic incentive for key management, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and aligning managerial interests with shareholder value.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Greggs CEO Granted Share Options Under Performance Plan
Neutral
Mar 26, 2025

Greggs plc announced that its Chief Executive, Roisin Currie, has been granted options over 55,807 ordinary shares under the company’s Performance Share Plan. These options, which have an exercise price of £nil, are contingent upon meeting certain performance conditions. This move is part of the company’s strategy to align management incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and market positioning.

Business Operations and Strategy
Greggs CEO Acquires Additional Company Shares
Positive
Mar 26, 2025

Greggs plc announced that its Chief Executive, Roisin Currie, has acquired 721 ordinary shares of the company at a price of £17.961308 per share. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects a strategic move by the company’s leadership to increase their stake, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance.

Other
Greggs Finance Director Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence
Positive
Mar 26, 2025

Greggs plc announced the acquisition of 472 ordinary shares by Richard John Hutton, the company’s Finance Director, at a price of £17.961308 per share. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects managerial confidence in the company’s financial health and future prospects, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions positively.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.