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Greggs PLC (GB:GRG)
LSE:GRG

Greggs plc (GRG) AI Stock Analysis

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Greggs plc

(LSE:GRG)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
1,843.00p
▲(10722.08%Upside)
Greggs plc shows strong financial health and a reasonable valuation, which are key strengths. However, the technical analysis reveals bearish trends, presenting possible risks. The stock is supported by a confident management team, as seen in corporate actions.
Positive Factors
Growth Prospects
The business remains confident in opening 140-150 net new shops for the full year.
Valuation
The shares are trading at their lowest multiple for over 10 years, indicating potential value.
Negative Factors
Profitability
Greggs issued a profit warning largely driven by unusually warm weather.
Weather Impact
Consumers are less likely to eat comfort/stodgy/hot products in the heat, affecting categories that make up the majority of Greggs' revenue.

Greggs plc (GRG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Greggs plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreggs plc (GRG) is a leading British bakery chain, renowned for its freshly prepared bakery items, sandwiches, and confectionary products. Founded in 1939, the company operates in the retail sector, with a strong presence across the United Kingdom. Greggs is committed to providing quality food at great value prices, catering to a broad customer base through its network of over 2,000 stores. Its menu includes a wide variety of items such as pastries, sausage rolls, sandwiches, salads, and hot drinks, appealing to both traditional and contemporary tastes.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreggs plc primarily generates revenue through the sale of food and beverages in its retail outlets. The company’s core revenue stream is its extensive network of shops, which are strategically located in high footfall areas such as high streets, shopping centers, and transport hubs. Greggs' business model emphasizes convenience and accessibility, which is enhanced by its focus on takeaway options and quick service. A significant portion of its earnings comes from its best-selling items like the iconic sausage roll and other bakery staples. Additionally, Greggs has diversified its revenue streams by introducing new product lines, including healthier food options and vegan products, responding to changing consumer preferences. The company also leverages strategic partnerships for supply chain efficiency and cost management, contributing to its profitability. Moreover, Greggs has been expanding its digital presence and delivery services, further enhancing its market reach and revenue potential.

Greggs plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Greggs plc demonstrates robust financial performance with consistent revenue growth and strong profitability margins. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage and a stable financial position, although a decline in free cash flow is noted due to increased capital expenditures. Overall, the company is well-positioned in the grocery store industry.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Greggs plc has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 11.33% increase in 2024 over the previous year. The gross profit margin improved to 61.73%, indicating strong operational efficiency. The net profit margin for 2024 stands at 7.61%, with EBIT and EBITDA margins at 10.39% and 14.19%, respectively. These figures reflect healthy profitability and effective cost management.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.73, showing moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is 26.89%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds to generate returns. The equity ratio is 43.23%, suggesting a balanced capital structure with a stable financial foundation.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
The free cash flow decreased by 28.21% in 2024, reflecting higher capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.03, showcasing robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, indicating some constraints in cash available after investments.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.01B1.81B1.51B1.23B811.30M
Gross Profit1.24B1.10B933.60M782.00M511.70M
EBITDA357.50M323.60M271.30M260.40M106.40M
Net Income153.40M142.50M120.30M117.50M-13.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.32B1.13B974.40M888.40M729.70M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments125.30M195.30M191.60M198.60M36.80M
Total Debt415.10M319.60M301.30M283.20M291.70M
Total Liabilities749.20M598.80M525.60M456.00M404.40M
Stockholders Equity570.50M530.90M446.00M429.20M321.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow70.00M112.70M149.60M231.20M-17.40M
Operating Cash Flow310.90M310.80M252.90M285.50M44.20M
Investing Cash Flow-217.10M-191.20M-100.80M-54.00M-59.80M
Financing Cash Flow-163.80M-115.90M-159.10M-69.70M-38.90M

Greggs plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price17.03
Price Trends
50DMA
19.32
Negative
100DMA
18.86
Negative
200DMA
22.30
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.59
Positive
RSI
32.46
Neutral
STOCH
18.91
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.96, below the 50-day MA of 19.32, and below the 200-day MA of 22.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GRG.

Greggs plc Risk Analysis

Greggs plc disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greggs plc reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Greggs plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
£79.20M14.5427.25%3.73%7.46%9.36%
GBGRG
70
Outperform
£1.75B11.4327.86%4.30%11.32%7.29%
GBMER
70
Outperform
£317.23M7.2024.38%4.35%3.96%62.25%
GBMER
70
Outperform
£317.23M7.2024.38%4.35%3.96%62.25%
GBDOM
66
Neutral
£1.00B11.18
5.85%-2.25%-18.24%
GBJDW
60
Neutral
£839.31M15.0016.38%0.38%3.70%57.10%
GBGLE
58
Neutral
£213.07M12.885.65%1.65%13.91%-2.75%
GBGLE
58
Neutral
£213.07M12.885.65%1.65%13.91%-2.75%
56
Neutral
HK$23.37B3.96-1.56%6.69%0.06%-64.88%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:GRG
Greggs plc
17.03
-11.02
-39.29%
GB:GLE
MJ Gleeson PLC
3.65
-2.13
-36.85%
GB:GLE
MJ Gleeson PLC
3.65
-2.13
-36.85%
GB:MER
Mears Group Plc
3.79
0.11
2.99%
GB:MER
Mears Group Plc
3.79
0.11
2.99%
GB:JDW
J D Wetherspoon
7.83
0.35
4.68%
GB:DOM
Domino's Pizza
2.56
-0.45
-14.95%
GB:CBOX
Cake Box Holdings
1.80
0.09
5.26%

Greggs plc Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greggs Reports Modest Sales Growth Amid Challenging Conditions
Neutral
Jul 2, 2025

Greggs plc reported a 6.9% increase in total sales for the first half of 2025, reaching £1,027 million. Despite this growth, like-for-like sales only grew by 2.6%, with high temperatures in June impacting consumer purchasing patterns. The company opened 87 new shops, resulting in a net increase of 31, and aims for 140 to 150 net openings by year-end. However, the Board anticipates that the full-year operating profit could be slightly below 2024 levels due to the strong comparative performance in 2024 and ongoing cost recovery initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £33.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Greggs CEO Increases Stake in Company
Positive
Jun 17, 2025

Greggs plc announced that its Director and CEO, Roisin Currie, acquired 29 ordinary shares of the company through the Greggs Share Incentive Plan. The shares were purchased at a price of £27.33 each on the London Stock Exchange, reflecting a strategic move by the CEO to increase her stake in the company, which could signal confidence in the company’s future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Greggs CEO Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence
Positive
Jun 17, 2025

Greggs plc announced that Roisin Currie, the company’s Director and CEO, has acquired 64 ordinary shares as part of the Greggs Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects ongoing confidence in the company’s performance and aligns with the company’s strategy to engage its leadership in ownership, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Other
Greggs CEO Acquires Shares, Reinforcing Leadership Engagement
Positive
Jun 17, 2025

Greggs plc has announced a transaction involving its Director and CEO, Roisin Currie, who acquired 14 ordinary shares of the company through the Greggs Share Incentive Plan at a price of £22.56 per share. This transaction highlights the ongoing engagement of the company’s leadership in its financial activities, potentially reinforcing stakeholder confidence in the company’s management and future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Greggs CEO Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence in Company’s Prospects
Positive
Jun 17, 2025

Greggs plc announced a transaction involving its CEO, Roisin Currie, who acquired 53 ordinary shares of the company at £19.90 per share through the Greggs Share Incentive Plan. This acquisition reflects the CEO’s confidence in the company’s future performance and aligns with the company’s strategy to engage its leadership in its financial growth, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Greggs plc Successfully Passes All Resolutions at 2025 AGM
Positive
May 21, 2025

At its 2025 Annual General Meeting, Greggs plc announced that all resolutions presented were successfully passed through a poll vote. Key resolutions included the approval of the annual report, auditor appointments, dividend declarations, and the re-election of several board members. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company for continued stability and growth. The decisions made at the AGM are expected to positively impact Greggs’ operational strategies and reinforce its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greggs Reports Strong Sales Growth and Expansion Plans Amid Challenging Market
Positive
May 20, 2025

Greggs plc reported a 7.4% increase in total sales to £784 million for the first 20 weeks of 2025, driven by a 2.9% like-for-like sales growth in company-managed shops. The company opened 66 new shops, with a net increase of 20, and is on track for 140-150 net openings by year-end. Product innovation, including new over-ice drinks and viral food items like Mac and Cheese, has bolstered sales. Despite a challenging market, Greggs maintains its full-year expectations unchanged, with ongoing investments in supply chain capacity and new facilities progressing as planned.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
Greggs plc Announces 2024 Financial Report and AGM Date
Neutral
Apr 16, 2025

Greggs plc has released its Annual Financial Report for 2024 and announced the date for its upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM). The AGM is scheduled for 21 May 2025 at The Grand Hotel High Gosforth Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. This announcement ensures transparency and keeps shareholders informed about the company’s financial performance and upcoming corporate events, reinforcing Greggs’ commitment to stakeholder engagement.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
Greggs plc Releases 2024 Financial Report and Announces AGM Date
Neutral
Apr 16, 2025

Greggs plc has released its Annual Financial Report for 2024 and announced the date for its upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM). The AGM is scheduled for 21 May 2025 at The Grand Hotel High Gosforth Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. Shareholders who requested hard copies have been provided with the documents, which are also accessible via the National Storage Mechanism and the company’s website. This announcement is part of Greggs’ ongoing commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement, ensuring stakeholders are informed of the company’s financial performance and strategic decisions.

Business Operations and Strategy
Greggs Advances Sustainability Goals with 2024 Report
Positive
Apr 16, 2025

Greggs has published its 2024 sustainability report, highlighting significant progress in its five-year sustainability plan, The Greggs Pledge, which aligns with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Key achievements include opening over 1,000 Breakfast Clubs, donating one million meals to FareShare, and securing a top four ranking in the Business Benchmark on Farm Animal Welfare. The company has also introduced heat-resistant recycled PET lids and expanded its Outlet shops to 38 locations. Greggs aims to continue its sustainability efforts by setting clear targets for 2025, such as reducing food waste, increasing renewable energy use, and enhancing its Eco-Shop design.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025