Greggs plc (GRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £1.73B
• Dividend Yield: 300.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 570.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 11.32%
• EPS Growth: 7.29%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 33,146
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.96
• Shares Outstanding: 102,255,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 484,885
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 570,159
• PEG Ratio: 1.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.81
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,169.33
• Price Target Upside: 27.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: 1,843.00p ▲(8.41%Upside)

Greggs plc shows strong financial health and a reasonable valuation, which are key strengths. However, the technical analysis reveals bearish trends, presenting possible risks. The stock is supported by a confident management team, as seen in corporate actions.

Positive Factors

Expansion Plans

The business remains confident in opening 140-150 net new shops for the full year.

Sales Growth

The trading period of March-May showed a +4% like-for-like growth, suggesting a temporary impact from weather rather than a fundamental demand issue.

Valuation

The shares are trading at their lowest multiple for over 10 years, indicating potential value.

Negative Factors

Footfall Decline

Greggs has seen June trading impacted by very high temperatures that have 'reduced overall footfall'.

Profit Forecast

The FY25 PBT estimate has been lowered by -9%.

Weather Impact

Greggs issued a profit warning largely driven by unusually warm weather.

Greggs plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh and frozen bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks. The company sells products to franchise and wholesale partners for sale in their own outlets. It is also involved in the property holding, non-trading, and trustee businesses. The company operates approximately 2,200 shops and 375 franchise locations. Greggs plc was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Greggs plc primarily generates revenue through the sale of food and beverages in its retail outlets. The company’s core revenue stream is its extensive network of shops, which are strategically located in high footfall areas such as high streets, shopping centers, and transport hubs. Greggs' business model emphasizes convenience and accessibility, which is enhanced by its focus on takeaway options and quick service. A significant portion of its earnings comes from its best-selling items like the iconic sausage roll and other bakery staples. Additionally, Greggs has diversified its revenue streams by introducing new product lines, including healthier food options and vegan products, responding to changing consumer preferences. The company also leverages strategic partnerships for supply chain efficiency and cost management, contributing to its profitability. Moreover, Greggs has been expanding its digital presence and delivery services, further enhancing its market reach and revenue potential.

Greggs plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greggs plc demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with moderate leverage. However, the free cash flow has declined due to higher capital expenditures.

Income Statement

Greggs plc has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 11.33% increase in 2024 over the previous year. The gross profit margin improved to 61.73%, indicating strong operational efficiency. The net profit margin for 2024 stands at 7.61%, with EBIT and EBITDA margins at 10.39% and 14.19%, respectively. These figures reflect healthy profitability and effective cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.73, showing moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is 26.89%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds to generate returns. The equity ratio is 43.23%, suggesting a balanced capital structure with a stable financial foundation.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow decreased by 28.21% in 2024, reflecting higher capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.03, showcasing robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, indicating some constraints in cash available after investments.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.01B	1.81B	1.51B	1.23B	811.30M
Gross Profit	1.24B	1.10B	933.60M	782.00M	511.70M
EBITDA	357.50M	323.60M	271.30M	260.40M	106.40M
Net Income	153.40M	142.50M	120.30M	117.50M	-13.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.32B	1.13B	974.40M	888.40M	729.70M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	125.30M	195.30M	191.60M	198.60M	36.80M
Total Debt	415.10M	319.60M	301.30M	283.20M	291.70M
Total Liabilities	749.20M	598.80M	525.60M	456.00M	404.40M
Stockholders Equity	570.50M	530.90M	446.00M	429.20M	321.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	70.00M	112.70M	149.60M	231.20M	-17.40M
Operating Cash Flow	310.90M	310.80M	252.90M	285.50M	44.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-217.10M	-191.20M	-100.80M	-54.00M	-59.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-163.80M	-115.90M	-159.10M	-69.70M	-38.90M

Greggs plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1700.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1700 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1739.25, below the 50-day MA of 1898.34, and below the 200-day MA of 2145.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -49.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GRG.

Greggs plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CBOX	79 Outperform	£95.70M	19.95	18.89%	436.78%	7.46%	9.36%
MER	77 Outperform	£324.33M	7.36	24.38%	289.57%	3.96%	62.25%
GRG	70 Outperform	£1.73B	11.28	27.86%	300.82%	11.32%	7.29%
GLE	68 Neutral	£218.33M	13.20	5.65%	219.16%	13.91%	-2.75%
Sector *	67 Neutral	¥265.52B	13.57	6.45%	2.58%	5.22%	-11.96%
DOM	67 Neutral	£970.80M	10.82		443.55%	-2.25%	-18.24%
JDW	66 Neutral	£842.48M	15.15	16.38%	189.51%	3.70%	57.10%

Greggs plc Corporate Events

Greggs Reports Modest Sales Growth Amid Challenging Conditions

Greggs plc reported a 6.9% increase in total sales for the first half of 2025, reaching £1,027 million. Despite this growth, like-for-like sales only grew by 2.6%, with high temperatures in June impacting consumer purchasing patterns. The company opened 87 new shops, resulting in a net increase of 31, and aims for 140 to 150 net openings by year-end. However, the Board anticipates that the full-year operating profit could be slightly below 2024 levels due to the strong comparative performance in 2024 and ongoing cost recovery initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £33.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs CEO Increases Stake in Company

Greggs plc announced that its Director and CEO, Roisin Currie, acquired 29 ordinary shares of the company through the Greggs Share Incentive Plan. The shares were purchased at a price of £27.33 each on the London Stock Exchange, reflecting a strategic move by the CEO to increase her stake in the company, which could signal confidence in the company’s future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs CEO Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence

Greggs plc announced that Roisin Currie, the company’s Director and CEO, has acquired 64 ordinary shares as part of the Greggs Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects ongoing confidence in the company’s performance and aligns with the company’s strategy to engage its leadership in ownership, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs CEO Acquires Shares, Reinforcing Leadership Engagement

Greggs plc has announced a transaction involving its Director and CEO, Roisin Currie, who acquired 14 ordinary shares of the company through the Greggs Share Incentive Plan at a price of £22.56 per share. This transaction highlights the ongoing engagement of the company’s leadership in its financial activities, potentially reinforcing stakeholder confidence in the company’s management and future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs CEO Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence in Company’s Prospects

Greggs plc announced a transaction involving its CEO, Roisin Currie, who acquired 53 ordinary shares of the company at £19.90 per share through the Greggs Share Incentive Plan. This acquisition reflects the CEO’s confidence in the company’s future performance and aligns with the company’s strategy to engage its leadership in its financial growth, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs plc Successfully Passes All Resolutions at 2025 AGM

At its 2025 Annual General Meeting, Greggs plc announced that all resolutions presented were successfully passed through a poll vote. Key resolutions included the approval of the annual report, auditor appointments, dividend declarations, and the re-election of several board members. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company for continued stability and growth. The decisions made at the AGM are expected to positively impact Greggs’ operational strategies and reinforce its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs Reports Strong Sales Growth and Expansion Plans Amid Challenging Market

Greggs plc reported a 7.4% increase in total sales to £784 million for the first 20 weeks of 2025, driven by a 2.9% like-for-like sales growth in company-managed shops. The company opened 66 new shops, with a net increase of 20, and is on track for 140-150 net openings by year-end. Product innovation, including new over-ice drinks and viral food items like Mac and Cheese, has bolstered sales. Despite a challenging market, Greggs maintains its full-year expectations unchanged, with ongoing investments in supply chain capacity and new facilities progressing as planned.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.