Greggs plc (GRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £1.60B
• Dividend Yield: 3.44%
• Average Volume (3M): 637.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: 8.06%
• EPS Growth: 5.15%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 33,146
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 102,255,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 493,500
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 637,618
• PEG Ratio: 2.61
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 40.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,082.14
• Price Target Upside: 27.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: 1,900.00p ▲(16.71% Upside)

Greggs plc's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive corporate events, which are the most significant factors. The technical analysis supports a bullish outlook, while the valuation is fair, providing a balanced view of growth and income potential. The absence of specific earnings call data did not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term expansion and stability.

Operational Efficiency

Improved operational efficiency enhances profitability, allowing Greggs to reinvest in growth initiatives and maintain competitive pricing.

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation supports ongoing operations and strategic investments, ensuring financial flexibility and resilience.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow may limit the company's ability to fund new projects or return capital to shareholders, impacting future growth.

Moderate Leverage

Moderate leverage can constrain financial flexibility, potentially affecting the company's ability to respond to economic changes or invest in new opportunities.

Free Cash Flow Constraints

Constraints in free cash flow may hinder the company's capacity to pursue aggressive growth strategies or manage unexpected financial challenges.

Greggs plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh and frozen bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks. The company sells products to franchise and wholesale partners for sale in their own outlets. It is also involved in the property holding, non-trading, and trustee businesses. The company operates approximately 2,200 shops and 375 franchise locations. Greggs plc was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Greggs generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages across its extensive network of retail shops. The company employs a direct-to-consumer model, with most of its income stemming from in-store sales. Key revenue streams include the sales of bakery products, sandwiches, beverages, and seasonal items, all of which are priced competitively. Additionally, Greggs has expanded its revenue through strategic partnerships with grocery retailers to sell its products in supermarkets, further broadening its market reach. The introduction of delivery services and online ordering has also contributed positively to sales, particularly during peak times and special promotions. Seasonal campaigns and limited-time offers play a significant role in driving customer traffic and boosting sales throughout the year.

Greggs plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greggs plc exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with moderate leverage. Although the free cash flow has declined, the company's operational cash generation remains strong, supporting its growth initiatives. Overall, Greggs plc is well-positioned in the grocery store industry, balancing growth and financial stability.

Income Statement

Greggs plc has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 11.33% increase in 2024 over the previous year. The gross profit margin improved to 61.73%, indicating strong operational efficiency. The net profit margin for 2024 stands at 7.61%, with EBIT and EBITDA margins at 10.39% and 14.19%, respectively. These figures reflect healthy profitability and effective cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.73, showing moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is 26.89%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds to generate returns. The equity ratio is 43.23%, suggesting a balanced capital structure with a stable financial foundation.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow decreased by 28.21% in 2024, reflecting higher capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.03, showcasing robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, indicating some constraints in cash available after investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.08B	2.01B	1.81B	1.51B	1.23B	811.30M
Gross Profit	1.28B	1.24B	1.10B	933.60M	782.00M	511.70M
EBITDA	286.10M	357.50M	323.60M	271.30M	260.40M	106.40M
Net Income	144.80M	153.40M	142.50M	120.30M	117.50M	-13.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.34B	1.32B	1.13B	974.40M	888.40M	729.70M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	32.50M	125.30M	195.30M	191.60M	198.60M	36.80M
Total Debt	451.40M	415.10M	319.60M	301.30M	283.20M	291.70M
Total Liabilities	773.20M	749.20M	598.80M	525.60M	456.00M	404.40M
Stockholders Equity	569.00M	570.50M	530.90M	446.00M	429.20M	321.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.80M	70.00M	112.70M	149.60M	231.20M	-17.40M
Operating Cash Flow	289.70M	310.90M	310.80M	252.90M	285.50M	44.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-308.10M	-217.10M	-191.20M	-100.80M	-54.00M	-59.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-95.40M	-163.80M	-115.90M	-159.10M	-69.70M	-38.90M

Greggs plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1628.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1628 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1563.10, above the 50-day MA of 1604.20, and below the 200-day MA of 1708.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 19.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:GRG.

Greggs plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRG	77 Outperform	£1.60B	11.03	27.24%	3.44%	8.06%	5.15%
MER	75 Outperform	£295.95M	6.15	25.63%	4.49%	-2.79%	37.33%
GLE	72 Outperform	£228.83M	14.46	5.23%	2.53%	5.93%	-18.20%
CBOX	70 Outperform	£90.86M	20.41	18.88%	5.04%	36.73%	-18.26%
JDW	69 Neutral	£683.68M	10.69	17.81%	1.56%	4.52%	50.39%
DOM	68 Neutral	£664.76M	8.78	―	6.53%	-0.67%	2.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Greggs plc Corporate Events

Greggs Finance Director Acquires Shares Under Performance Plan

Greggs plc announced that Richard Hutton, the Finance Director, acquired 15,769 ordinary shares of the company on November 4, 2025. This acquisition was made by exercising an option under the company’s Performance Share Plan, with the shares obtained at no cost due to achieved performance conditions. This transaction highlights the company’s commitment to rewarding its management team and may positively impact stakeholder confidence in the company’s performance and governance.

Greggs Finance Director Sells Shares to Cover Tax Liability

Greggs plc announced a transaction involving its Finance Director, Richard Hutton, who sold 7,438 ordinary shares at £15.71 each on the London Stock Exchange. This sale was conducted to fund an income tax liability following the exercise of Performance Share Plan options, while the remaining shares from the options were retained.

Greggs Reports Strong Q3 Sales Growth and Expands Shop Network

Greggs plc reported a 6.1% increase in total sales for the third quarter of 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 6.7%. Despite challenges from high temperatures in July, trading improved in August and September. The company opened 130 new shops and closed 73, resulting in 57 net new openings, and expects around 120 net shop openings for the year. Greggs is expanding its ‘Bake at Home’ range and enhancing its menu with new high-protein options and seasonal items. The company is also progressing with its supply chain investments, with new distribution centers in Derby and Kettering set to open in 2026 and 2027, supporting future growth. The outlook for cost inflation in 2025 is slightly improved, and the board’s full-year expectations remain unchanged.

Greggs plc to Release Q3 Trading Update on October 1, 2025

Greggs plc has announced that it will release its third quarter trading update on October 1, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s operational performance and market strategy, potentially impacting its industry positioning and investor confidence.