Greggs plc (GRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £1.64B
• Dividend Yield: 3.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 637.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: 8.06%
• EPS Growth: 5.15%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 33,146
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 102,255,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 493,500
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 637,618
• PEG Ratio: 2.61
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 40.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,156.67
• Price Target Upside: 34.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: 1,900.00p ▲(18.23% Upside)

Greggs plc's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive corporate events, which are the most significant factors. The technical analysis supports a bullish outlook, while the valuation is fair, providing a balanced view of growth and income potential. The absence of specific earnings call data did not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term expansion and stability.

Operational Efficiency

Improved operational efficiency enhances profitability, allowing Greggs to reinvest in growth initiatives and maintain competitive pricing.

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation supports ongoing operations and strategic investments, ensuring financial flexibility and resilience.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow may limit the company's ability to fund new projects or return capital to shareholders, impacting future growth.

Moderate Leverage

Moderate leverage can constrain financial flexibility, potentially affecting the company's ability to respond to economic changes or invest in new opportunities.

Free Cash Flow Constraints

Constraints in free cash flow may hinder the company's capacity to pursue aggressive growth strategies or manage unexpected financial challenges.

Greggs plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh and frozen bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks. The company sells products to franchise and wholesale partners for sale in their own outlets. It is also involved in the property holding, non-trading, and trustee businesses. The company operates approximately 2,200 shops and 375 franchise locations. Greggs plc was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Greggs generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages across its extensive network of retail shops. The company employs a direct-to-consumer model, with most of its income stemming from in-store sales. Key revenue streams include the sales of bakery products, sandwiches, beverages, and seasonal items, all of which are priced competitively. Additionally, Greggs has expanded its revenue through strategic partnerships with grocery retailers to sell its products in supermarkets, further broadening its market reach. The introduction of delivery services and online ordering has also contributed positively to sales, particularly during peak times and special promotions. Seasonal campaigns and limited-time offers play a significant role in driving customer traffic and boosting sales throughout the year.

Greggs plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greggs plc exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with moderate leverage. Although the free cash flow has declined, the company's operational cash generation remains strong, supporting its growth initiatives.

Income Statement

Greggs plc has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 11.33% increase in 2024 over the previous year. The gross profit margin improved to 61.73%, indicating strong operational efficiency. The net profit margin for 2024 stands at 7.61%, with EBIT and EBITDA margins at 10.39% and 14.19%, respectively. These figures reflect healthy profitability and effective cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.73, showing moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is 26.89%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds to generate returns. The equity ratio is 43.23%, suggesting a balanced capital structure with a stable financial foundation.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow decreased by 28.21% in 2024, reflecting higher capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.03, showcasing robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, indicating some constraints in cash available after investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.08B	2.01B	1.81B	1.51B	1.23B	811.30M
Gross Profit	1.28B	1.24B	1.10B	933.60M	782.00M	511.70M
EBITDA	286.10M	357.50M	323.60M	271.30M	260.40M	106.40M
Net Income	144.80M	153.40M	142.50M	120.30M	117.50M	-13.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.34B	1.32B	1.13B	974.40M	888.40M	729.70M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	32.50M	125.30M	195.30M	191.60M	198.60M	36.80M
Total Debt	451.40M	415.10M	319.60M	301.30M	283.20M	291.70M
Total Liabilities	773.20M	749.20M	598.80M	525.60M	456.00M	404.40M
Stockholders Equity	569.00M	570.50M	530.90M	446.00M	429.20M	321.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.80M	70.00M	112.70M	149.60M	231.20M	-17.40M
Operating Cash Flow	289.70M	310.90M	310.80M	252.90M	285.50M	44.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-308.10M	-217.10M	-191.20M	-100.80M	-54.00M	-59.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-95.40M	-163.80M	-115.90M	-159.10M	-69.70M	-38.90M

Greggs plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1607.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1607 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1662.70, below the 50-day MA of 1637.22, and below the 200-day MA of 1697.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GRG.

Greggs plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRG	77 Outperform	£1.64B	11.30	27.24%	3.34%	8.06%	5.15%
TSCO	74 Outperform	£27.02B	18.52	13.65%	3.25%	1.05%	-20.25%
SBRY	70 Outperform	£7.13B	20.75	6.63%	4.02%	0.82%	160.81%
DOM	68 Neutral	£694.91M	9.17	―	6.46%	-0.67%	2.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
MKS	61 Neutral	£7.38B	373.57	0.68%	1.18%	14.13%	-96.12%
SSPG	48 Neutral	£1.44B	-19.69	-48.11%	2.50%	5.98%	-371.14%

Greggs plc Corporate Events

Greggs Lifts Sales and Market Share as Expansion and Supply Chain Investments Peak

Greggs reported a 6.8% rise in full-year 2025 sales to £2.15bn, with like-for-like sales in company-managed shops up 2.4%, outperforming a tougher UK food-to-go market and gaining visit share at key dayparts such as breakfast and evening. Despite subdued consumer confidence and weather-related disruption, operational costs were tightly controlled, structural efficiencies delivered £13m in savings, and the chain accelerated expansion with 207 openings and 121 net new shops, taking the estate to 2,739 sites, supported by ongoing product innovation and value-focused deals. The company is investing heavily in supply chain capacity, with a new frozen product facility in Derby due to start phased operations from mid-2026 and a national chilled and ambient distribution centre in Kettering on track for 2027, but says it has passed the peak of capex and expects a significant reduction in spending from 2026, improving cash generation from a year-end net cash position of £47m. Management expects 2025 profit before tax to be in line with previous expectations (before a one-off sales tax item) and anticipates profits in 2026 to be broadly similar to 2025 as lower cost inflation, continued market share gains and estate growth are offset by ongoing consumer weakness and temporary margin pressure from bringing new supply chain capacity onstream.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £21.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs plc to Announce Fourth-Quarter Trading Update in January

Greggs plc has announced that it will release its fourth-quarter trading update on January 8, 2026. The forthcoming update is an important indicator of the company’s performance and outlook in the competitive food-on-the-go industry, providing stakeholders with insights into its market positioning and operational progress.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £1900.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs plc Appoints New Non-Executive Director and Audit Committee Chair

Greggs plc has announced the appointment of Richard Smothers as an independent Non-Executive Director, effective from February 2026. He will also become the Chair of the Audit Committee in March 2026, succeeding Kate Ferry who will retire. Smothers brings extensive financial expertise from his previous roles at Greene King, Mothercare, Rexam, and Tesco, which is expected to benefit Greggs’ business operations and strengthen its board’s capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £1900.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs Finance Director Acquires Shares Under Performance Plan

Greggs plc announced that Richard Hutton, the Finance Director, acquired 15,769 ordinary shares of the company on November 4, 2025. This acquisition was made by exercising an option under the company’s Performance Share Plan, with the shares obtained at no cost due to achieved performance conditions. This transaction highlights the company’s commitment to rewarding its management team and may positively impact stakeholder confidence in the company’s performance and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £1861.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs Finance Director Sells Shares to Cover Tax Liability

Greggs plc announced a transaction involving its Finance Director, Richard Hutton, who sold 7,438 ordinary shares at £15.71 each on the London Stock Exchange. This sale was conducted to fund an income tax liability following the exercise of Performance Share Plan options, while the remaining shares from the options were retained.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £1861.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.