Greggs PLC (GB:GRG)
LSE:GRG
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Greggs plc
(LSE:GRG)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
1,613.00 p
▲(8.99% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven primarily by a still-healthy operating profile but softer 2025 earnings quality (margin/EPS decline and weaker free cash flow) and rising leverage. Valuation is supportive (P/E ~14 and ~3.34% yield), while technicals are broadly constructive but mixed on momentum. Earnings-call guidance is balanced: positive sales and inflation/capex outlook, offset by flat profit expectations and supply-chain investment headwinds.
Positive Factors
Consistent revenue growth and market share gains
Sustained top-line growth and small but steady market-share gains indicate durable demand for Greggs’ convenience food model and effective site expansion. This supports long-term revenue resilience as new stores and franchise channels add repeat high-frequency transactions.
Negative Factors
Profitability and EPS contraction
Declining operating profit and EPS despite revenue growth point to margin pressure and weaker operating leverage. Persistent profit compression reduces retained earnings and constrains the company’s ability to fund growth or lift returns without sustained efficiency improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent revenue growth and market share gains
Sustained top-line growth and small but steady market-share gains indicate durable demand for Greggs’ convenience food model and effective site expansion. This supports long-term revenue resilience as new stores and franchise channels add repeat high-frequency transactions.
Read all positive factors
Greggs plc (GRG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.51B
Dividend Yield3.34%
Average Volume (3M)637.62K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.0
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth8.06%
EPS Growth5.15%
CountryUK
Employees33,146
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding102,255,680
10 Day Avg. Volume493,500
30 Day Avg. Volume637,618
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.68
Price to Book (P/B)2.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio23.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£1,948.33Price Target Upside31.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)£2.30B
Greggs plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh and frozen bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks. The company sells products to franchise and wholesale partners for sale in their own outl...
How the Company Makes Money
Greggs makes money primarily by selling food and beverages directly to consumers through its company-operated shop estate. Revenue is generated from high-volume, everyday purchases across core categories such as savoury baked items (e.g., pastries...
Greggs plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a cautiously optimistic picture: strong top‑line growth (nearly 7%), market‑share gains, robust operating cash generation, accelerated digital and channel progress, and clear CapEx de‑risking that should create future free cashflow for returns. However, near‑term profitability is constrained by heavy, deliberate supply‑chain and technology investments, VAT/tax timing effects, and ongoing volume pressure in a challenging market. Management emphasizes cost savings, margin recovery levers and a multi‑year plan to restore ROCE to target levels, balancing short‑term profit impact against medium‑term capacity and growth opportunities.Positive Updates
Sales Growth and Market Share Gain
Total sales up almost 7% in FY2025; company-managed like-for-like +2.4% and franchise system sales like-for-like +4.3%. Greggs increased market share of visits by 0.5 percentage points to 8.6% while overall market visits declined just over 3%.
Negative Updates
Profitability and EPS Decline
Operating profit reduced (~4% year-on-year) and PBT down ~9.4% (reported full PBT GBP 167m). Diluted/underlying EPS declined ~10.7% to an underlying EPS of 122.8p, reflecting volume pressure and investment phasing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sales Growth and Market Share Gain
Total sales up almost 7% in FY2025; company-managed like-for-like +2.4% and franchise system sales like-for-like +4.3%. Greggs increased market share of visits by 0.5 percentage points to 8.6% while overall market visits declined just over 3%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The guidance reiterated a cautious but constructive outlook: FY25 total sales grew ~7% (company-managed like‑for‑like +2.4%, franchise/system like‑for‑like +4.3%) with underlying operating profit and PBT broadly in line with expectations (full-year PBT £167m), underlying EPS 122.8p (diluted EPS down 10.7%), operating cash inflow £273m (4–4.5% higher than 2024) and year‑end net cash c.£46m (£25m drawn from the RCF; £146m liquidity). Management expects cost inflation to fall from 5.6% in 2025 to c.3% in 2026 (wage inflation c.8% → c.4%), achieved £13m of cost savings in 2025, and flagged a Derby supply‑chain step‑up (~40bp headwind) that will make H1 materially stronger than H2 but leave FY26 profits broadly flat; CapEx was £287m in 2025 (supply‑chain £147m) and is guided to ~£200m in 2026 then £150–170m pa from 2027, enabling scope for returns as free cash rises. Other targets/metrics: ROCE 16% in 2025 (long‑term aspiration ~20%), ordinary dividend 69p (final 50p, ~2x cover), app transactions >26%, delivery 6.8% of mix, evening 9.4% of sales, and c.120 net new shops targeted in the year (53% of 2025 openings had no Greggs within a mile; sales transfer <5%).Greggs plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.15B | 2.01B | 1.81B | 1.51B | 1.23B |
| Gross Profit | 1.32B | 1.24B | 1.10B | 933.60M | 782.00M |
| EBITDA | 344.30M | 357.50M | 323.60M | 271.30M | 260.40M |
| Net Income | 122.20M | 153.40M | 142.50M | 120.30M | 117.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.48B | 1.32B | 1.13B | 974.40M | 888.40M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 70.80M | 125.30M | 195.30M | 191.60M | 198.60M |
| Total Debt | 474.80M | 415.10M | 319.60M | 301.30M | 283.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 858.80M | 749.20M | 598.80M | 525.60M | 456.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 625.20M | 570.50M | 530.90M | 446.00M | 429.20M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 73.70M | 70.00M | 112.70M | 149.60M | 231.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 337.00M | 310.90M | 310.80M | 252.90M | 285.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -284.50M | -217.10M | -191.20M | -100.80M | -54.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -107.00M | -163.80M | -115.90M | -159.10M | -69.70M |
Greggs plc Technical Analysis
Negative
1480.00
Price Trends
1611.44
Negative
1614.31
Negative
1635.57
Negative
Market Momentum
-32.14
Positive
29.78
Positive
16.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1480 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1596.10, below the 50-day MA of 1611.44, and below the 200-day MA of 1635.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -32.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.78 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GRG.
Greggs plc Risk Analysis
Greggs plc disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greggs plc reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greggs plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | £29.21B | 7.58 | 13.57% | 3.25% | 1.05% | -20.25% | |
70 Outperform | £7.38B | 11.60 | 5.08% | 4.02% | 0.82% | 160.81% | |
68 Neutral | £1.51B | 14.01 | 20.47% | 3.34% | 8.06% | 5.15% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | £6.60B | 298.74 | 0.69% | 1.18% | 14.13% | -96.12% | |
60 Neutral | £651.79M | 11.48 | -68.82% | 6.46% | -0.67% | 2.43% | |
48 Neutral | £1.35B | -26.58 | -59.21% | 2.50% | 5.98% | -371.14% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GB:GRG
Greggs plc
1,480.00
-226.67
-13.28%
GB:DOM
Domino's Pizza
170.80
-101.41
-37.26%
GB:MKS
Marks and Spencer
326.00
-24.95
-7.11%
GB:SBRY
J Sainsbury plc
332.00
110.83
50.11%
GB:SSPG
SSP Group plc
172.70
22.96
15.34%
GB:TSCO
Tesco plc
459.60
139.30
43.49%
Greggs plc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Greggs grows sales and market share as profits dip amid heavy investment
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
Greggs reported a resilient 2025 in a tough food-to-go market, with total sales up 6.8% to £2.15bn but underlying profit before tax down 9.4%, reflecting consumer pressures and investment. Despite margin pressure, cash generation remained str...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greggs Sets Date to Unveil 2025 Preliminary Results
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
Greggs plc has announced it will publish its preliminary results for the 52 weeks ended 27 December 2025 on 3 March 2026, signalling an upcoming detailed update on trading performance, profitability and strategic progress. The scheduled release wi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greggs Lifts Sales and Market Share as Expansion and Supply Chain Investments Peak
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
Greggs reported a 6.8% rise in full-year 2025 sales to £2.15bn, with like-for-like sales in company-managed shops up 2.4%, outperforming a tougher UK food-to-go market and gaining visit share at key dayparts such as breakfast and evening. Des...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.