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Associated British Foods
(LSE:ABF)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
2,237.00 p
▲(19.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is primarily driven by stable but mixed financial performance and a cautious earnings outlook (profit/EPS expected below 2025, Sugar losses), partially offset by clearly attractive valuation (low P/E and solid yield). Technical indicators are neutral-to-weak, limiting near-term momentum support.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
ABF's financial foundation is durable: management reports manageable leverage and strong equity ratios, with liquidity and a material pension surplus noted elsewhere. This balance-sheet strength supports ongoing CapEx, buybacks and cushions cyclical shocks over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Sugar segment losses and guidance cut
Prolonged low European sugar prices and oversupply have driven the segment into a full-year loss. Structural commodity weakness in Sugar means the group may need to absorb continued earnings drag or fund turnaround actions, lowering group resilience and requiring management attention across the planning horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
ABF's financial foundation is durable: management reports manageable leverage and strong equity ratios, with liquidity and a material pension surplus noted elsewhere. This balance-sheet strength supports ongoing CapEx, buybacks and cushions cyclical shocks over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Associated British Foods (ABF) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£14.36B
Dividend Yield2.98%
Average Volume (3M)1.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.3
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth-2.16%
EPS Growth-24.87%
CountryUK
Employees138,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.34
Shares Outstanding703,776,000
10 Day Avg. Volume628,749
30 Day Avg. Volume1,020,937
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.58
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.82
P/FCF Ratio13.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£1,792.92Price Target Upside-4.43% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)£19.47B
Associated British Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Associated British Foods plc (ABF) is a global diversified entity, primarily engaged in the food, ingredient, and retail sectors. Its extensive operations are segmented into five distinct divisions: Grocery, Sugar, Agriculture, Ingredients, and Re...
How the Company Makes Money
ABF makes money through multiple operating segments that generate revenue primarily from product sales and retail sales. Primark is a major revenue driver, earning revenue from in-store (and in some markets online-related) sales of value-priced ap...
Associated British Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: clear operational progress at Primark (UK turnaround, digital traction, international roll-out) and continued investment and brand momentum in Foods, balanced against material near-term financial headwinds including an 18% drop in group adjusted operating profit, a revised full-year loss expectation for Sugar, Grocery profit declines and higher markdowns. The company emphasizes a strong balance sheet, active capital returns and multi-year transformation investments, but geopolitical cost pressures and recent consumer softening create uncertainty for the near term.Positive Updates
Group Revenue and Cash Flow Resilience
Group revenue of GBP 9.5bn (flat YoY at actual rates; -2% at constant currency) with free cash flow improving to GBP 71m (from GBP 27m prior year) aided by reduced Primark working capital and disciplined capital allocation.
Negative Updates
Group Profit and EPS Decline
Group adjusted operating profit down to GBP 691m, an 18% decline (constant currency) and adjusted EPS down 15%, reflecting weaker margins and lower profitability across key segments.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue and Cash Flow Resilience
Group revenue of GBP 9.5bn (flat YoY at actual rates; -2% at constant currency) with free cash flow improving to GBP 71m (from GBP 27m prior year) aided by reduced Primark working capital and disciplined capital allocation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reconfirmed 2026 guidance for the group (profit weighted to H2) with the exception of sugar: group H1 revenue was £9.5bn (flat; -2% at constant currency) and adjusted operating profit £691m (down 18% cc), adjusted EPS down c.15% (benefitting from £187m buybacks YTD and a planned £250m buyback for the year, £63m remaining); they expect adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS for the full year to be below 2025. Primark guidance is unchanged with H1 sales £4.7bn (up 2%), like‑for‑like -2.7% (UK LFL +1.3%, Continental LFL -5.6%), H1 margin 10.1% and full‑year adjusted operating margin ~10%; store rollout contributed c.4% to growth, H1 opened 11 owned stores (38 in the US total), website traffic +37%, CRM +1m to >5m, and self‑checkout now in 250 stores. Grocery sales were £2.1bn with grocery profit down ~20% cc and grocery/ingredients guidance unchanged; Ingredients showed pockets of strong growth. Sugar H1 sales were down 9% with an adjusted operating loss of £27m and management now expects sugar to deliver an adjusted operating loss for the full year. CapEx was £534m in H1 (c.40% in Primark), full‑year CapEx c.£1.2bn; balance sheet/leverage: net debt including leases c.£3.0bn (H1 2025: c.£2.77bn), leverage 1.2x, total liquidity £2.2bn (committed facilities £1.8bn), free cash flow H1 £71m (vs £27m), and a pension surplus of £1.7bn; management said Middle‑East related cost impacts are manageable in 2026 given hedges but a sustained conflict could further dampen consumer spending.Associated British Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.42B | 19.45B | 20.07B | 19.75B | 17.00B | 13.88B |
| Gross Profit | 1.46B | 4.70B | 1.84B | 1.34B | 3.78B | 3.13B |
| EBITDA | 2.45B | 2.43B | 2.56B | 2.02B | 1.87B | 1.48B |
| Net Income | 950.00M | 1.02B | 1.46B | 1.04B | 700.00M | 478.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.63B | 19.29B | 19.01B | 18.84B | 19.77B | 16.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 712.00M | 1.06B | 1.66B | 1.46B | 2.13B | 2.31B |
| Total Debt | 3.74B | 3.69B | 3.68B | 3.72B | 3.89B | 3.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.01B | 8.11B | 7.74B | 7.65B | 8.22B | 6.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.46B | 11.06B | 11.19B | 11.09B | 11.45B | 9.92B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.79B | 614.00M | 380.00M | 742.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.25B | 2.25B | 2.87B | 1.69B | 1.15B | 1.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.12B | -878.00M | -1.33B | -1.06B | -854.00M | -656.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.16B | -1.65B | -1.57B | -1.16B | -563.00M | -373.00M |
Associated British Foods Technical Analysis
Positive
1876.00
Price Trends
1891.80
Positive
1866.99
Positive
1950.65
Positive
Market Momentum
31.19
Negative
64.71
Neutral
85.14
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ABF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1876 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1961.27, below the 50-day MA of 1891.80, and below the 200-day MA of 1950.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 31.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ABF.
Associated British Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | £2.95B | 18.78 | 14.99% | 2.06% | 9.52% | 18.08% | |
74 Outperform | £1.65B | 12.45 | 15.61% | 1.62% | 2.31% | 9.04% | |
68 Neutral | £14.36B | 15.31 | 8.44% | 2.98% | -2.16% | -24.87% | |
65 Neutral | £2.48B | 25.25 | 6.17% | 5.27% | 15.55% | 42.40% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | £1.73B | 69.94 | 0.73% | 0.79% | 25.76% | -73.03% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
GB:ABF
Associated British Foods
2,052.00
-81.46
-3.82%
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378.30
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GB:PFD
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191.30
4.01
2.14%
GB:TATE
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560.50
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10.78%
GB:GNC
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218.20
-20.26
-8.50%
Associated British Foods Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
ABF Completes Hovis Deal to Forge Profitable UK Bakery Powerhouse
Positive
Jul 8, 2026
Associated British Foods has completed the acquisition of Hovis Group from Endless LLP and will merge it with its existing Allied Bakeries unit to form Hovis Bakeries. The enlarged business is positioned to be a sustainably profitable U.K. bakery ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
ABF Holds Guidance as Primark Growth Offsets Sugar Weakness
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
Associated British Foods reported a resilient third quarter, with group revenue flat in constant currency as Primark and the Ingredients and Grocery divisions offset weakness in Sugar and Agriculture. Primark’s sales rose 3%, driven by new s...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Associated British Foods Confirms Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
May 29, 2026
Associated British Foods plc has confirmed that it has 703,776,007 ordinary shares in issue, each carrying one vote at general meetings, and none held in treasury. The stated share count becomes the reference figure for investors when calculating ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AB Foods grants equity awards to new Primark chief and CFO
Positive
May 22, 2026
Associated British Foods has granted conditional allocations of ordinary shares to executive director and Primark chief executive Eoin Tonge and group chief financial officer Joana Edwards under its 2025 Restricted Share Plan and 2025 Short-Term I...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Cancels 500,000 Shares in Ongoing Buyback
Positive
May 13, 2026
Associated British Foods has repurchased 500,000 of its ordinary shares for cancellation as part of its ongoing share buyback programme authorised by shareholders. The shares were acquired on 13 May 2026 at an average price of about 1,769.57 pence...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Cancels 440,268 Shares After Latest Buyback
Positive
May 12, 2026
Associated British Foods said it has repurchased 440,268 ordinary shares on 12 May 2026 as part of its ongoing share buyback programme authorised by shareholders earlier this year. The shares, bought from Barclays Capital Securities at an average ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Cancels 248,516 Shares in Ongoing Buyback
Positive
May 11, 2026
Associated British Foods has continued its shareholder capital management programme by repurchasing 248,516 ordinary shares on 11 May, at an average price of about 1,808.93 pence, and will cancel all of the stock bought back. The trades, executed ...
Stock Buyback
Associated British Foods Buys Back and Cancels Nearly 490,000 Shares
Positive
May 5, 2026
Associated British Foods has continued executing its share repurchase programme, buying back 489,546 ordinary shares on 5 May 2026 at an average price of 1,801.8942 pence, with trades executed across multiple venues including the London Stock Exch...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods continues share buyback with latest £1,813-per-share repurchase
Positive
May 1, 2026
Associated British Foods has continued executing its shareholder-approved share repurchase programme, buying back 81,735 ordinary shares on 1 May 2026 at an average price of 1,813.19 pence. The shares were acquired via Barclays Capital Securities ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Continues Share Buyback With Further Cancellation
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
Associated British Foods has continued executing its previously announced share repurchase programme, buying back 26,352 ordinary shares on 30 April 2026 at an average price of 1,828.4397 pence. The shares, acquired from Barclays Capital Securitie...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Associated British Foods Confirms Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Apr 30, 2026
Associated British Foods has confirmed that it has 705,596,916 ordinary shares of 5 15/22 pence each admitted to trading, with each share carrying one vote at general meetings. The company also stated that it holds no shares in treasury, clarifyin...
Stock Buyback
Associated British Foods Cancels Further Shares Under Ongoing Buyback
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
Associated British Foods has continued to execute its previously announced share repurchase programme, buying 34,492 ordinary shares on 29 April 2026 at a volume‑weighted average price of about 1,829.9 pence. The shares, acquired via multipl...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Cancels New Tranche of Shares After April Buyback
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
Associated British Foods has repurchased 82,216 of its ordinary shares on 28 April 2026 under its ongoing share buyback authority, paying an average price of 1,826.2120 pence, with trades executed across the London Stock Exchange and multiple alte...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Cancels 217,488 Shares in Latest Buyback Tranche
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
Associated British Foods has repurchased 217,488 ordinary shares on 27 April 2026 under its ongoing share buyback authority, paying an average price of 1,823.94 pence per share across multiple trading venues. The company will cancel the shares, ma...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Cancels Latest Tranche of Shares in Ongoing Buyback
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
Associated British Foods has repurchased 8,410 of its ordinary shares on 24 April 2026 under its ongoing share buyback programme, paying an average price of 1,839.1371 pence per share across multiple trading venues including the London Stock Excha...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Cancels 200,000 Shares in Ongoing Buyback Programme
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
Associated British Foods has continued execution of its share repurchase programme, buying back 200,000 ordinary shares on 23 April 2026 at an average price of 1,834.4530 pence, with the shares to be cancelled. The on-market purchases, executed vi...
Other
AB Foods Director Loraine Woodhouse Buys Shares on Market
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
Associated British Foods has disclosed that non-executive director Loraine Woodhouse acquired 1,074 ordinary shares in the company on 22 April 2026 through a market purchase on the London Stock Exchange. The transaction modestly increases insider ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Cancels New Tranche of Share Buybacks
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
Associated British Foods has continued its ongoing share repurchase programme, buying 63,516 ordinary shares on 22 April 2026 at an average price of about 1,847.53 pence per share. The shares were acquired from Barclays Capital Securities across m...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Buys Back 220,000 Shares for Cancellation
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
Associated British Foods has repurchased 220,000 of its ordinary shares on 21 April 2026 as part of its ongoing share buyback programme authorised by shareholders. The shares, bought at an average price of 1,831.6555 pence and executed through Bar...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing Changes
ABF to Spin Off Primark in FTSE 100 Demerger Creating Pure-Play FoodCo
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
Associated British Foods has decided to demerge its Primark retail arm from its FoodCo food operations, following an extensive strategic review conducted in consultation with its largest shareholder, Wittington Investments. The move will create tw...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Associated British Foods Sets Interim Dividend and Reinvestment Option
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
Associated British Foods has declared an interim dividend of 20.7 pence per ordinary share for the 24-week period to 28 February 2026, payable on 3 July 2026 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 29 May 2026, with an ex-divid...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
AB Foods Profit Hit by Sugar and US Weakness as Primark Drives UK Gains
Negative
Apr 21, 2026
Associated British Foods reported flat first-half revenue at £9.47bn but an 18% fall in adjusted operating profit, as higher investment, weaker US demand and a sharp downturn in its Sugar division weighed on earnings, even as free cash flow i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.