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Associated British Foods (GB:ABF)
LSE:ABF

Associated British Foods (ABF) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:ABF

Associated British Foods

(LSE:ABF)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
2,338.00p
▲(10.08% Upside)
Associated British Foods has a stable financial foundation with strong operational efficiency, but faces challenges in revenue growth and cash flow generation. The technical indicators show mixed signals, and the valuation is reasonable with a moderate dividend yield. The recent earnings call highlighted both strategic initiatives and ongoing challenges, particularly in the sugar segment and European markets. These factors collectively result in a moderate overall stock score.
Positive Factors
Strong Capital Returns
ABF's consistent capital returns through dividends and buybacks demonstrate strong cash generation and a commitment to shareholder value, reinforcing investor confidence over the long term.
Primark's Store Expansion
Primark's successful store expansion enhances market presence and revenue potential, supporting long-term growth in competitive retail markets.
Growth in Ingredients Segment
The strong growth in the Ingredients segment highlights effective cost management and productivity, contributing positively to ABF's diversified business model.
Negative Factors
Decline in Group Sales and Profit
The decline in sales and profit reflects challenges in maintaining revenue growth, particularly in the sugar segment, which could impact future profitability.
Sugar Segment Losses
Losses in the sugar segment, driven by low prices and high costs, pose a risk to ABF's earnings stability, necessitating strategic adjustments for recovery.
Challenges in Primark's European Markets
Weaker trading conditions in Europe for Primark indicate potential market saturation and pricing pressures, which could hinder growth in key regions.

Associated British Foods (ABF) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Associated British Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAssociated British Foods plc operates as a diversified food, ingredients, and retail company worldwide. It operates through five segments: Grocery, Sugar, Agriculture, Ingredients, and Retail. The Grocery segment manufactures and sells grocery products, including hot beverages, sugar and sweeteners, vegetable oils, balsamic vinegars, bread and baked goods, cereals, ethnic foods, and meat products to retail, wholesale, and foodservice businesses. The Sugar segment is involved in growing, processing, and selling sugar beet and sugar cane to industrial users. The Agriculture segment manufactures and sells animal feeds; and provides other products and services for the agriculture sector. The Ingredients segment manufactures bakers' yeast, bakery ingredients, enzymes, lipids, yeast extracts, and cereal specialties. The Retail segment is involved in buying and merchandising clothing and accessories through the Primark and Penneys retail chains, which offer womenswear, menswear, children's wear, footwear, accessories, homeware, and skincare products. The company was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. Associated British Foods plc is a subsidiary of Wittington Investments Limited.
How the Company Makes MoneyABF generates revenue through multiple key streams. The grocery segment, which includes brands like Twinings and Ovaltine, contributes significantly by selling packaged foods, beverages, and grocery items. The sugar division profits from the production and sale of sugar, which is influenced by global sugar prices and agricultural yields. Additionally, the ingredients sector supplies various food and industrial ingredients, further diversifying income. The retail arm, Primark, is a major revenue driver, offering clothing and home goods at competitive prices. Significant partnerships with suppliers and retailers enhance ABF's market reach, while the company also benefits from economies of scale and a strong focus on cost management, all of which contribute to its overall earnings.

Associated British Foods Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with positive developments such as a new buyback program, Primark's store rollout success, and growth in the ingredients segment. However, these were offset by challenges like the decline in group sales and profit, sugar segment losses, and weak consumer environments affecting Primark's performance in Europe.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
New Buyback Program Announced
ABF announced a new buyback program of GBP 250 million to be completed in 2026, following GBP 594 million of buybacks in 2025.
Strong Capital Returns to Shareholders
Over the last 3 years, ABF has returned GBP 3.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
Primark's Store Rollout Success
Primark's store rollout program contributed 4% to growth with good execution across key markets in Europe and the U.S.
Primark's Improvement in the UK
Primark's UK trading showed a good sequential improvement with like-for-like sales broadly flat in the second half, gaining market share.
Positive Growth in Ingredients Segment
Adjusted operating profit for Ingredients grew 16% at constant currency, supported by a continued focus on productivity savings and good management of input costs.
Successful Sugar Mill Launch in Tanzania
The new sugar mill in Tanzania began production, expected to significantly increase domestic supply and contribute to a 20% return in the medium term.
Robust Grocery Segment Performance
Twinings and Ovaltine delivered good sales growth, supported by marketing investment and product innovation.
Negative Updates
Decline in Group Sales and Profit
Group sales were down 1% and adjusted operating profit down 12%, primarily due to a sharp drop in sugar profits.
Sugar Segment Losses
Sugar sales declined 10%, with an adjusted operating loss of GBP 2 million. Low European sugar prices and high beet costs drove significant operating losses.
Challenges in Primark's European Markets
Primark faced weaker trading in the second half of the year in Europe, with challenges in market conditions and pricing pressures.
Agricultural Profit Decrease
Agriculture sales decreased 1%, and adjusted operating profit decreased from GBP 41 million in 2024 to GBP 25 million in 2025 due to one-off costs and reduced profit contribution from a joint venture.
Continued Weak Consumer Environment
The consumer environment remained weak, particularly in the UK and Europe, affecting Primark's like-for-like sales.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, ABF's management provided guidance for the fiscal year 2026, highlighting several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The group reported a 1% decline in sales and a 12% drop in adjusted operating profit for 2025, attributed mainly to a significant downturn in sugar profits, which fell from close to GBP 200 million in 2024 to breakeven in 2025. Despite these challenges, ABF announced a new GBP 250 million buyback program for 2026, reflecting confidence in future prospects. Capital expenditure remained substantial at GBP 1.2 billion, with a focus on growth and efficiency projects across Primark and food businesses. Primark's initiatives included driving like-for-like sales growth and space expansion, with adjusted operating profit up by 2% to GBP 1.1 billion. In 2026, ABF expects adjusted operating profit and EPS growth, with specific improvements projected in sugar profitability due to lower beet costs and operational efficiencies. The company also foresees growth contributions from new store openings and ongoing investments in product and digital capabilities. Looking ahead, ABF emphasized its commitment to delivering long-term shareholder value through disciplined capital allocation and strategic brand development.

Associated British Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Associated British Foods exhibits a strong financial profile with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, and cash flow generation is healthy, supporting operational and strategic initiatives.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Associated British Foods has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a notable increase of 1.57% over the last year, reaching £20.07 billion. The company maintains a solid gross profit margin of 24.32% and a healthy net profit margin of 7.25%, indicating effective cost management and profitability. The EBIT margin stands at 9.63%, and the EBITDA margin at 15.61%, showcasing robust operational performance. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and stable profitability.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet of Associated British Foods reveals a sturdy financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, suggesting moderate leverage and manageable debt levels. The company achieves a return on equity of 12.99%, which signifies efficient utilization of equity to generate profits. Additionally, the equity ratio is strong at 58.81%, indicating a solid capital structure with a good portion of assets financed by equity. These metrics underline the company's financial stability and low risk exposure.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
The cash flow statement highlights a significant improvement in free cash flow, which surged by 190.91% year-over-year, reaching £1.79 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.00, reflecting strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.23, indicating a slight dependence on net income for free cash generation. Overall, the cash flow metrics suggest healthy liquidity and operational cash generation, despite some reliance on net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue19.46B19.46B20.07B19.75B17.00B13.88B
Gross Profit4.66B4.66B1.84B1.34B3.78B3.13B
EBITDA2.43B2.43B2.56B2.02B1.87B1.48B
Net Income1.02B1.02B1.46B1.04B700.00M478.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets19.29B19.29B19.01B18.84B19.77B16.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.06B1.06B1.66B1.46B2.13B2.31B
Total Debt3.69B3.69B3.68B3.72B3.89B3.69B
Total Liabilities8.11B8.11B7.74B7.65B8.22B6.89B
Stockholders Equity11.06B11.06B11.19B11.09B11.45B9.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.13B1.15B1.79B614.00M380.00M742.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.23B2.25B2.87B1.69B1.15B1.37B
Investing Cash Flow-797.00M-878.00M-1.33B-1.06B-854.00M-656.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.71B-1.65B-1.57B-1.16B-563.00M-373.00M

Associated British Foods Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2124.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2139.46
Negative
100DMA
2119.15
Positive
200DMA
2061.85
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.34
Negative
RSI
55.23
Neutral
STOCH
73.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ABF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2124 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2089.97, below the 50-day MA of 2139.46, and above the 200-day MA of 2061.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ABF.

Associated British Foods Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
£2.73B18.4715.07%2.02%6.96%28.47%
76
Outperform
£1.50B11.389.47%1.61%0.50%20.52%
71
Outperform
£448.34M11.4512.72%7.01%8.58%-15.81%
69
Neutral
£15.07B15.009.22%0.99%-3.06%-26.93%
65
Neutral
£1.68B49.472.48%3.54%26.84%-81.73%
64
Neutral
£1.39B37.485.88%2.46%0.59%-41.66%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:ABF
Associated British Foods
2,124.00
136.57
6.87%
GB:CWK
Cranswick
5,110.00
345.76
7.26%
GB:HFG
Hilton Food
499.50
-354.23
-41.49%
GB:PFD
Premier Foods
173.80
-11.37
-6.14%
GB:TATE
Tate & Lyle
380.40
-253.30
-39.97%
GB:BAKK
Bakkavor Group plc
242.50
102.41
73.10%

Associated British Foods Corporate Events

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Associated British Foods Announces Final Dividend for 2025
Positive
Nov 4, 2025

Associated British Foods has announced a final dividend of 42.3 pence per share for the year ended 13 September 2025, with payment scheduled for 9 January 2026. This decision, pending shareholder approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting, reflects the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and highlights its financial stability and operational success over the past year.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Buy with a £2614.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Associated British Foods Reports Decline Amid Strategic Review
Negative
Nov 4, 2025

Associated British Foods reported a decline in revenue and profit for the year ending September 2025, with a 1% decrease in revenue and a 12% drop in adjusted operating profit, primarily due to challenges in its Sugar segment. Despite these setbacks, the company continued to invest in growth, sustainability, and digital initiatives, particularly in its Primark retail chain, which saw a 1% sales increase. The company is also reviewing its group structure, considering a potential separation of its Primark and Food businesses to maximize long-term value, with a decision expected after consultation with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Buy with a £2614.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Associated British Foods Updates Shareholder Communication Preferences
Neutral
Sep 19, 2025

Associated British Foods plc has announced the distribution of a letter to certain shareholders regarding their preferences for electronic and hard copy communications. This initiative reflects the company’s efforts to streamline shareholder communications and enhance engagement, potentially impacting how stakeholders interact with the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Associated British Foods Reports Mixed Trading Update Amid Strategic Changes
Neutral
Sep 10, 2025

Associated British Foods reported a mixed trading update for the second half of its financial year, highlighting strong performance in the US market for its Primark stores, while facing challenges in Europe due to a weaker consumer environment. The company is undergoing strategic changes, including the closure of its Vivergo bioethanol plant and restructuring of its Spanish sugar business, which are expected to impact its financials. Despite these challenges, the company is optimistic about future benefits from recent actions and continued investments, particularly in expanding its store portfolio and digital initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Sell with a £2130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Associated British Foods Updates Shareholders on Voting Rights
Neutral
Aug 29, 2025

Associated British Foods plc announced that it has 715,863,867 ordinary shares admitted to trading, each carrying one vote at general meetings. This update, in line with the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules, aids shareholders in determining their notification requirements regarding their interest in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Sell with a £2130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Completes £500 Million Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 21, 2025

Associated British Foods plc has completed its £500 million share buyback program, which was announced in November 2024, by repurchasing 94,116 of its ordinary shares from Barclays Capital Securities Limited. This transaction marks the final purchase under the second and final £250 million tranche of the program, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value and optimize the company’s capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Sell with a £17.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback to Enhance Shareholder Value
Positive
Aug 20, 2025

Associated British Foods announced the repurchase and cancellation of 110,000 of its ordinary shares from Barclays Capital Securities as part of its ongoing share repurchase program. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Sell with a £17.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 19, 2025

Associated British Foods plc announced the repurchase and cancellation of 108,004 of its ordinary shares from Barclays Capital Securities Limited as part of its share repurchase programme. This transaction, executed on the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s ongoing strategy to manage its capital structure, potentially enhancing shareholder value and indicating confidence in its financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Sell with a £17.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback
Neutral
Aug 18, 2025

Associated British Foods plc announced the repurchase and cancellation of 98,789 of its ordinary shares as part of its share repurchase program. This transaction, conducted with Barclays Capital Securities Limited, is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 15, 2025

Associated British Foods announced the repurchase and cancellation of 119,595 ordinary shares as part of its share repurchase program. This transaction, executed through Barclays Capital Securities, reflects the company’s strategic financial management and could potentially enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Associated British Foods Acquires Hovis Group to Strengthen UK Bakery Business
Positive
Aug 15, 2025

Associated British Foods has announced its acquisition of Hovis Group Limited, a move aimed at revitalizing its UK bakery business, Allied Bakeries. This strategic acquisition is expected to generate cost synergies and efficiencies, positioning the combined entity to compete more effectively in the UK bakery market. The merger will support product innovation and expansion into new product ranges, catering to evolving consumer preferences, and is anticipated to create value for shareholders and offer greater choice for consumers. The transaction is pending regulatory approval.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 14, 2025

Associated British Foods plc announced the repurchase and cancellation of 85,000 of its ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share repurchase program. The transaction, conducted through Barclays Capital Securities Limited, reflects the company’s strategic focus on optimizing its capital structure and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 13, 2025

Associated British Foods announced the repurchase and cancellation of 90,000 ordinary shares as part of its share repurchase program. This transaction, executed through Barclays Capital Securities, reflects the company’s ongoing strategy to manage its capital structure effectively, potentially enhancing shareholder value and signaling confidence in its financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Associated British Foods Enhances Shareholder Value with Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 12, 2025

Associated British Foods plc announced the repurchase and cancellation of 70,000 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share repurchase program, with the transaction executed through Barclays Capital Securities Limited. This strategic move aims to enhance shareholder value and reflects the company’s robust financial position, potentially impacting its stock performance positively and signaling confidence in its future growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 11, 2025

Associated British Foods plc announced the repurchase and cancellation of 105,051 of its ordinary shares from Barclays Capital Securities Limited as part of its share repurchase program. This strategic move is likely aimed at enhancing shareholder value and optimizing the company’s capital structure, reflecting confidence in its financial health and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 8, 2025

Associated British Foods plc announced the repurchase and cancellation of 90,000 of its ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share repurchase program. This transaction, executed through Barclays Capital Securities Limited, reflects the company’s strategic financial management and may positively impact shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Buy with a £2650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Associated British Foods plc announced the repurchase and cancellation of 100,000 of its ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share repurchase program. This transaction, conducted through Barclays Capital Securities Limited, reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback to Optimize Capital Structure
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

Associated British Foods plc has announced the repurchase and cancellation of 90,000 of its ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This move, executed through Barclays Capital Securities Limited, is aimed at optimizing the company’s capital structure and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Associated British Foods Executes Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 5, 2025

Associated British Foods plc announced the repurchase and cancellation of 218,538 of its ordinary shares from Barclays Capital Securities Limited as part of its share buyback program. This move, executed on the London Stock Exchange, is part of the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ABF) stock is a Hold with a £2150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Associated British Foods stock, see the GB:ABF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 19, 2025