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Greencore Group PLC (GB:GNC)
LSE:GNC

Greencore (GNC) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:GNC

Greencore

(LSE:GNC)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
288.00p
▲(10.13% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:12/11/25
Greencore's overall stock score is driven by its strong earnings call performance, indicating robust profitability and strategic growth initiatives. Financial performance is solid, with stable revenue growth and profitability margins. Technical analysis shows moderate bullish momentum, while valuation suggests the stock is fairly priced. The absence of significant corporate events further supports a stable outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained top-line growth to nearly GBP 2bn (+7.7% YoY) reflects durable demand for core convenience categories and successful onboarding of new contracts, reinforcing retailer relationships and scale in ready meals that support multi-quarter organic growth and margin expansion.
Cash Generation
Strong free cash flow (GBP 120.5m) and high conversion (66.5%), alongside operating cash flow well above net income, provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends and M&A integration, supporting balance sheet resilience and disciplined capital allocation over coming quarters.
Strategic Acquisition
Planned Bakkavor acquisition with positive CMA Phase 1 and projected GBP 80m+ cost synergies is a structural catalyst that enlarges scale, broadens customer/product footprint and should lift long-term operating leverage and ROIC if integration delivers projected efficiencies.
Negative Factors
Declining FCF Growth
A 12.34% decline in free cash flow growth is a durable caution: reduced FCF momentum can constrain reinvestment capacity, slow deleveraging or limit buffer for integration costs from acquisitions, making execution and cash conversion critical over the next several quarters.
Portfolio Underperformance
Persistent weakness in the salad category signals structural demand or competitive mix issues that can depress category margins and growth; resolving this requires sustained product innovation or commercial action, otherwise it may drag overall segment profitability across multiple quarters.
Low Operating Margins
Relatively low EBIT (5.19%) and EBITDA (8.15%) margins reflect constrained operating leverage in a competitive convenience-foods market; limited margin headroom reduces cushion versus inflation or cost shocks and necessitates ongoing efficiency gains to sustain ROIC improvements.

Greencore (GNC) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Greencore Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreencore Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of convenience food products primarily in the United Kingdom and Ireland. The company provides various products, including sandwiches, salads, sushi, chilled snacking, chilled ready meals, chilled soups and sauces, chilled quiche, ambient sauces and pickles, and frozen Yorkshire Puddings. It is also involved in the trading of Irish ingredients; finance activities; and property business. The company supplies its products to supermarkets, convenience and travel retail outlets, discounters, coffee shops, foodservice, and other retailers. Greencore Group plc was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreencore generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of convenience food products to retailers and food service businesses. The company's key revenue streams include ready-to-eat meals, sandwiches, salads, and other prepared foods, which are sold to large supermarket chains and food service operators. Greencore's business model is centered around long-term contracts with major clients, which provide a stable source of income. Additionally, the company invests in innovation to develop new products that cater to changing consumer tastes and trends, enhancing its market position. Strategic partnerships with prominent retailers also play a crucial role in its earnings, as they facilitate broader distribution and increased sales volumes. Factors contributing to Greencore's earnings include its operational efficiency, ability to adapt to market demands, and a focus on sustainability, which resonates with environmentally conscious consumers.

Greencore Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 18, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong performance with record profitability, significant revenue growth, and successful new product launches. While there were challenges, such as inflationary pressures and underperformance in the salad category, these were outweighed by the positive financial metrics and progress in strategic initiatives like the Bakkavor acquisition.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Profitability Achieved
The company reached a record level of profitability, achieving a 15% return on invested capital (ROIC), which is an increase of 350 basis points from the previous fiscal year.
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue for FY 2025 was just under GBP 2 billion, representing a growth of 7.7% year-on-year.
Significant Operating Profit Increase
Adjusted operating profit increased by 28.9% year-on-year to GBP 125.7 million.
Successful New Product Launches
Launched 534 new products in partnership with customers, which is over 10 products per week.
Operational Excellence Improvements
Operational excellence initiatives led to a 4% increase in units per labor hour from FY 2024 and a 10% increase since FY 2023.
Strong Free Cash Flow
Recorded a free cash inflow of GBP 120.5 million, with a free cash flow conversion of 66.5%.
Bakkavor Acquisition Progress
Progressing according to plan with a positive Phase 1 decision from the CMA and expected completion in early 2026.
Dividend Increase
The Board recommended a dividend of 2.6p per share, an increase of 30% year-on-year.
Negative Updates
Challenges in the Salad Portfolio
Performance in parts of the salad portfolio was challenging in comparison to other segments.
Water Reduction Target Missed
The company did not meet its in-year target for water reduction due to high water usage at a couple of sites.
Inflationary Pressures
Experienced about GBP 45 million worth of inflation, mainly from labor and materials costs.
Company Guidance
In the fiscal year 2025, the company reported a strong performance across multiple financial metrics, achieving a revenue of nearly GBP 2 billion, which represents a 7.7% year-on-year growth. The adjusted operating profit increased by 28.9% to GBP 125.7 million, resulting in an operating margin growth of 110 basis points to 6.5%. The return on invested capital (ROIC) rose to 15%, a 350 basis point increase from the previous year. The company's free cash flow was GBP 120.5 million, with a leverage ratio of 0.4x net debt to EBITDA. The successful onboarding of new contracts, particularly in the ready meals segment, contributed significantly to this growth. Additionally, the company launched 534 new products and maintained over 99% service levels with ongoing operational excellence initiatives. Looking ahead, the company anticipates continued profitable growth and plans to close the acquisition of Bakkavor in early 2026, projecting at least GBP 80 million in cost synergies. The company remains committed to enhancing shareholder value through disciplined capital allocation and strategic investments.

Greencore Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Greencore demonstrates solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with a manageable debt level, and cash flow metrics are strong despite a recent decline in free cash flow growth. The company should focus on enhancing operational efficiency and monitoring debt levels to sustain its financial health.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Greencore's income statement shows a positive trajectory in revenue growth, with a 4.5% increase in the latest year. The gross profit margin is healthy at approximately 32.5%, indicating efficient production. Net profit margin has improved to 2.96%, reflecting better cost management. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low at 5.19% and 8.15%, respectively, suggesting room for improvement in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity stands at 11.71%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 38.65%, suggesting a stable financial structure. However, the company should monitor its debt levels to maintain financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis indicates a decline in free cash flow growth by 12.34%, which could impact future investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.87, demonstrating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.12, indicating efficient cash conversion. Despite the decline in free cash flow growth, the company maintains solid cash flow metrics.
BreakdownSep 2025Sep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.95B1.81B1.91B1.74B1.32B
Gross Profit632.50M599.60M568.80M523.00M422.90M
EBITDA158.70M147.80M124.10M110.60M101.30M
Net Income57.60M46.30M35.90M32.30M25.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.27B1.20B1.30B1.34B1.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments81.80M57.30M116.50M99.60M119.10M
Total Debt207.70M250.30M315.50M327.60M361.80M
Total Liabilities780.70M754.50M837.90M873.10M868.30M
Stockholders Equity492.00M450.20M459.80M465.60M423.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow122.20M79.60M61.60M42.90M62.50M
Operating Cash Flow165.60M112.00M99.00M92.90M102.70M
Investing Cash Flow-43.40M-31.70M-31.30M-50.00M-17.60M
Financing Cash Flow-85.50M-98.70M-81.50M-69.40M-58.10M

Greencore Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price261.50
Price Trends
50DMA
268.67
Negative
100DMA
252.71
Positive
200DMA
244.34
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.12
Positive
RSI
39.80
Neutral
STOCH
49.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 261.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 279.25, below the 50-day MA of 268.67, and above the 200-day MA of 244.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GNC.

Greencore Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
£2.86B19.6315.07%2.06%6.96%28.47%
76
Outperform
£1.67B12.939.47%1.62%0.50%20.52%
71
Outperform
£463.41M12.1312.72%7.01%8.58%-15.81%
70
Outperform
£2.08B20.3912.23%0.79%7.74%30.09%
69
Neutral
£13.50B13.969.22%2.98%-3.06%-26.93%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:GNC
Greencore
255.50
65.13
34.21%
GB:ABF
Associated British Foods
1,905.50
109.25
6.08%
GB:CWK
Cranswick
5,240.00
387.53
7.99%
GB:HFG
Hilton Food
500.00
-307.79
-38.10%
GB:PFD
Premier Foods
191.40
11.95
6.66%

Greencore Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Greencore Confirms Total Voting Rights at Over 803 Million Shares
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026

Greencore Group PLC has confirmed that, as of 27 February 2026, its issued ordinary share capital comprises 803,422,543 shares, each carrying one vote, resulting in a total of 803,422,543 voting rights. This disclosure provides the official denominator shareholders must use to assess whether they are required to notify the market of any interests or changes in holdings under the FCA’s transparency rules, ensuring continued compliance and clarity around Greencore’s ownership structure.

The updated voting rights figure is intended to support accurate reporting of significant shareholdings and changes by investors, helping maintain market transparency in line with regulatory standards. By restating its capital and voting base, Greencore reinforces the governance framework around its stock, offering stakeholders a clear reference point for monitoring influential positions and regulatory thresholds in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £301.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Greencore Confirms Total Voting Rights at Over 803 Million Shares
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026

Greencore Group plc has reported that, as of 2 February 2026, its issued ordinary share capital comprises 803,293,580 ordinary shares, each carrying one voting right, giving a total of 803,293,580 voting rights. The company noted that this figure should be used by shareholders as the reference denominator when assessing whether they are required to disclose holdings or changes in their interest under the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, ensuring accurate reporting of significant shareholdings and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £319.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
Greencore Wins Strong Shareholder Backing for Capital Authorities at 2026 AGM
Positive
Jan 29, 2026

Greencore Group plc reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 29 January 2026 Annual General Meeting were approved, with each motion receiving strong backing and support levels generally above 96% of votes cast. The AGM outcome grants the board broad authority to allot new shares, disapply pre-emption rights for specified purposes, conduct share buybacks of up to 10% of issued share capital, and re-allot treasury shares, providing the company with enhanced financial and capital-raising flexibility ahead of its next scheduled AGM in 2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £312.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Greencore Delivers Strong Q1 and Completes Bakkavor Deal to Build UK Convenience Food Leader
Positive
Jan 29, 2026

Greencore reported a solid start to its 2026 financial year, with first‑quarter standalone revenue up 5.4% to £499.8m, supported by 0.5% manufactured volume growth that outpaced the wider grocery market and by strong demand for premium and innovative convenience ranges, particularly sandwiches and sushi. Operational performance remained robust with service levels above 99% over the key Christmas trading period and ongoing efficiency programmes encompassing more than 700 projects to support profit conversion, while the recently completed acquisition of Bakkavor on 16 January 2026 positions the enlarged group as the UK’s leading convenience food manufacturer, broadening its category reach, innovation capabilities and scale as it works through a staged integration and targets at least £80m in annual cost synergies, with trading currently in line with board expectations despite a cautious UK consumer backdrop.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £312.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Greencore Expands Share Capital as Bakkavor Acquisition Takes Effect
Positive
Jan 19, 2026

Greencore Group plc has confirmed the admission to trading in London of 360,231,087 new ordinary shares, taking its total issued share capital to 803,283,097 shares, in connection with its recommended acquisition of Bakkavor Group plc. The enlarged share base formalises the equity component of the reverse takeover structure, marking a significant step in consolidating Greencore’s position in the UK and Irish convenience and prepared foods market and signalling a substantial increase in scale that will be closely watched by shareholders and industry rivals for its impact on market share, funding structure and future strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £330.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Greencore Completes Bakkavor Takeover as Bakkavor Shares Delist from London Market
Positive
Jan 19, 2026

Greencore Group PLC has completed its recommended acquisition of Bakkavor Group PLC, leading to the delisting of Bakkavor’s shares from the FCA’s Official List and the cancellation of their trading on the London Stock Exchange’s main market as of 8:00 a.m. on 19 January 2026. The move formally takes Bakkavor private under Greencore’s ownership and consolidates two major players in the UK and Irish fresh prepared and convenience food sector, potentially strengthening Greencore’s market position, scale and negotiating power across retail and foodservice channels while removing Bakkavor from public equity markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £330.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Greencore Advances Bakkavor Takeover With FCA-Approved Share Prospectus
Positive
Jan 8, 2026

Greencore Group has published a prospectus approved by the UK Financial Conduct Authority for the issue of new Greencore shares to Bakkavor shareholders, a key step in its recommended acquisition of Bakkavor Group. Under the agreed terms, Bakkavor investors will receive a mix of new Greencore shares, cash and a contingent value right, with up to 361.9 million new Greencore shares to be admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange’s main market, expected from 19 January 2026, subject to court sanction of the scheme and other conditions. Bakkavor’s listing is slated to be cancelled on the same date, consolidating the combined group under Greencore’s London listing, while two Bakkavor directors, Mike Edwards and Lee Miley, are now expected to remain on the Bakkavor board for agreed periods after completion, signalling a measure of continuity in governance during the integration phase.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £266.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Greencore Confirms Total Voting Rights at 443 Million Shares
Neutral
Dec 31, 2025

Greencore Group has confirmed that its issued ordinary share capital now comprises 443,017,199 ordinary shares, each carrying one vote, giving the company a total of 443,017,199 voting rights. The updated figure provides investors and other market participants with the denominator needed to assess and report any notifiable holdings or changes in their shareholdings under the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s disclosure and transparency rules, reinforcing transparency around Greencore’s ownership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £266.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Greencore Issues 2025 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Dec 19, 2025

Greencore Group plc has published its 2025 Annual Report and Financial Statements and issued the formal notice and documentation for its 2026 Annual General Meeting, which will take place on 29 January 2026 at the Maldron Hotel Dublin Airport in Ireland. Shareholders are being sent the chair’s letter and AGM notice, the full annual report and accounts for the year ended 26 September 2025, and a form of proxy, with all materials also being made available via the company’s website and the UK National Storage Mechanism; investors are encouraged to use proxy voting, submit questions in advance, and monitor the company’s website for any further updates regarding the AGM arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £266.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Greencore Set to Complete Bakkavor Acquisition in January 2026
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

Greencore Group PLC has announced the expected completion of its acquisition of Bakkavor Group PLC on January 16, 2026. The acquisition has cleared major regulatory hurdles, including approvals from the UK Competition and Markets Authority and the United States HSR Act. This strategic move is anticipated to strengthen Greencore’s position in the convenience food sector, with potential implications for stakeholders, including changes in board membership and the integration of Bakkavor’s operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £266.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Greencore Announces Executive Share Vesting and Sale
Neutral
Dec 9, 2025

Greencore Group plc announced a transaction involving Dalton Philips, an Executive Director, who vested an award of 1,560,113 ordinary shares under the company’s Performance Share Plan. A portion of these shares was sold to cover tax liabilities, with the remaining shares subject to a mandatory two-year holding period, reflecting the company’s strategic approach to executive compensation and shareholder value management.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GNC) stock is a Buy with a £300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greencore stock, see the GB:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 11, 2025