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Greencore Group PLC (GB:GNC)
LSE:GNC

Greencore (GNC) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Greencore

(LSE:GNC)

74Outperform
Greencore's overall score reflects a well-rounded financial performance with strong operational efficiency and cash management. The recent earnings call and corporate events highlight strategic growth potential despite existing challenges in valuation and technical performance.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Profit conversion has been ahead of management expectations due to operational initiatives and cost control.
Mergers and Acquisitions
The Boards of Greencore and Bakkavor announce that they have reached an agreement in principle on the key terms of a possible offer by GNC for BAKK.
Revenue Growth
Greencore has reported like-for-like revenue growth accelerating to +4.9% and total growth to +7.5%.
Negative Factors
Cost Challenges
The lack of upgrade reflects the 'unprecedented' labour cost challenge.
Headwinds
Strong trading performance was stymied by well-flagged headwinds from NLW/NIC.
Valuation Concerns
Greencore's proposals for Bakkavor were rejected by the Board, which concluded they significantly undervalued the group and its future prospects.

Greencore (GNC) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Greencore Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreencore Group plc (GNC) is a leading international manufacturer of convenience foods, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. The company specializes in producing a wide range of chilled, frozen, and ambient food products for various retail and food service customers. Greencore's core offerings include sandwiches, salads, sushi, chilled ready meals, and other prepared foods, catering primarily to the UK and US markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreencore makes money by supplying its range of convenience food products to major supermarket chains, food service operators, and other retailers. The company's revenue model is driven by long-term partnerships and contracts with these clients, ensuring a steady demand for its products. Key revenue streams include the sale of branded and private-label products, catering to consumer preferences for convenience and quality. Greencore's earnings are also influenced by its ability to innovate in product development and maintain efficient production and distribution systems to manage costs and meet customer expectations.

Greencore Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Greencore's financial statements exhibit strong operational efficiency and robust cash flow management. The income statement shows a slight decline in revenue, but margins remain healthy. The balance sheet is stable, with a positive return on equity. Cash flows are consistently positive, supporting strategic initiatives.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Greencore's income statement shows a stable revenue base with a slight decline from the previous year, indicating potential market challenges. The company maintains healthy gross and EBIT margins, implying strong operational efficiency. However, net profit margins are modest, suggesting room for improvement in managing expenses.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a sound equity position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. Return on equity has been positive, indicating decent profitability for shareholders. Nevertheless, the company's total debt level should be monitored to prevent financial strain.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Greencore's cash flow statement is robust, with consistent free cash flow generation and positive operating cash flow to net income ratio. The company has demonstrated effective cash management practices, supporting operational and strategic initiatives.
Breakdown
Sep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.81B1.91B1.74B1.32B1.26B
Gross Profit
599.60M568.80M523.00M422.90M405.20M
EBIT
84.30M66.00M52.10M33.50M27.00M
EBITDA
147.80M124.10M110.60M101.30M80.30M
Net Income Common Stockholders
46.30M35.90M32.30M25.40M-9.90M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
57.30M116.50M99.60M119.10M267.00M
Total Assets
1.20B1.30B1.34B1.29B1.43B
Total Debt
250.30M315.50M327.60M361.80M678.20M
Net Debt
193.00M199.00M228.00M242.70M411.20M
Total Liabilities
754.50M837.90M873.10M868.30M1.14B
Stockholders Equity
450.20M459.80M465.60M423.20M276.50M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
79.60M61.60M42.90M62.50M-29.40M
Operating Cash Flow
112.00M99.00M92.90M102.70M2.50M
Investing Cash Flow
-31.70M-31.30M-50.00M-17.60M-31.60M
Financing Cash Flow
-98.70M-81.50M-69.40M-58.10M34.60M

Greencore Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price185.60
Price Trends
50DMA
185.12
Negative
100DMA
189.59
Negative
200DMA
189.39
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.10
Negative
RSI
55.34
Neutral
STOCH
62.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 185.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 178.02, above the 50-day MA of 185.12, and below the 200-day MA of 189.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GNC.

Greencore Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBABF
81
Outperform
£14.74B11.5611.89%3.07%-0.38%14.68%
GBBAG
79
Outperform
£764.27M19.1813.01%2.26%5.10%3.23%
GBPFD
79
Outperform
£1.74B15.908.03%0.86%5.90%11.24%
76
Outperform
£2.46B13.2812.23%3.45%-11.03%-2.05%
GBNXT
76
Outperform
£14.44B20.1246.76%1.75%11.42%-7.03%
GBGNC
74
Outperform
£802.09M18.4310.18%1.08%-5.57%38.90%
64
Neutral
$8.88B14.974.71%174.26%3.67%4.40%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:GNC
Greencore
185.60
55.01
42.12%
GB:TATE
Tate & Lyle
559.00
-94.93
-14.52%
GB:NXT
Next plc
12,370.00
3,470.16
38.99%
GB:BAG
AG Barr
687.00
123.96
22.02%
GB:ABF
Associated British Foods
2,050.00
-531.85
-20.60%
GB:PFD
Premier Foods
201.50
38.23
23.42%

Greencore Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Dec 03, 2024
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -4.86%|
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong financial performance with significant profitability and cash flow improvements, and strategic shareholder returns. However, challenges such as a decline in reported revenue, sustainability progress, and upcoming labor cost pressures were noted. The company is positioned to mitigate these headwinds through operational excellence and innovation.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Profitability and Revenue Growth
Adjusted operating profit increased by 28% to £97.5 million, with adjusted earnings per share growing 37% to 12.7p. Like-for-like revenue growth was 3.4% and volume growth was 0.5%.
Strong Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
Free cash inflow of £70.1 million, an increase of 23% compared to 2023. Leverage reduced to 1x net debt to EBITDA, at the lower end of the target range.
Shareholder Returns
Completed £50 million capital return to shareholders, including a progressive dividend policy of 2p per share and a £40 million share buyback. Announced a further £10 million in buybacks.
Operational Improvements
Gross margin improved by 310 basis points since 2022. Adjusted operating margin increased by 120 basis points to 5.4%.
Innovation and Market Outperformance
421 new margin-accretive SKUs launched, with volume growth driven by key categories like sandwiches and ready meals outperforming the market.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Reported revenue declined by 5.6% due to contract exits and the disposal of Trilby Trading.
Sustainability Challenges
Mixed performance in sustainability targets, with significant progress needed in carbon emissions and water usage to meet 2030 goals.
Labor Cost Headwinds
Facing new labor cost headwinds, including a £7.5 million impact from NIC increases and a 6.7% rise in the National Living Wage.
Capacity and Cost Management
Challenges in managing capacity and costs, especially in the ready meals sector with excess capacity and multiple new regulatory cost pressures.
Company Guidance
During the Greencore FY '24 Results Presentation, CEO Dalton Philips highlighted the company's strong financial performance, surpassing market expectations with a like-for-like revenue growth of 3.4% and volume growth of 0.5%. The company achieved an adjusted operating profit of £97.5 million, a 28% increase from the previous year, driven by operational and commercial excellence. Greencore completed a £50 million capital return to shareholders, including a £40 million buyback and a 2p per share dividend, with plans for a further £10 million buyback. The company reduced its leverage to 1x net debt to EBITDA, and improved its return on invested capital by 260 basis points to 11.5%. For FY '25, Greencore anticipates adjusted operating profit within the top half of market expectations, despite new labor cost challenges, and aims for low to mid single-digit revenue growth.

Greencore Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Greencore Announces Current Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Apr 30, 2025

Greencore Group PLC announced that its issued ordinary share capital consists of 441,621,777 shares, each carrying one vote, resulting in a total of 441,621,777 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, impacting how they report changes in their shareholding interests.

Spark’s Take on GB:GNC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:GNC is a Outperform.

Greencore’s overall score reflects a robust financial performance and positive strategic outlook, bolstered by strong earnings and promising corporate events. The company’s technical performance and valuation present areas for improvement, but recent earnings and strategic initiatives provide a positive long-term outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:GNC stock, click here.

Business Operations and Strategy
Greencore Appoints Deutsche Numis as Joint Corporate Broker
Positive
Apr 28, 2025

Greencore Group PLC has appointed Deutsche Numis as a joint corporate broker alongside Goodbody Stockbrokers and Shore Capital. This strategic move aims to strengthen Greencore’s financial advisory team and enhance its market presence, potentially impacting its operations and stakeholder relations positively.

Spark’s Take on GB:GNC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:GNC is a Outperform.

Greencore’s overall score of 74 reflects a robust financial performance and positive strategic outlook, bolstered by strong earnings and promising corporate events. The company faces challenges in technical performance and valuation, but recent earnings and strategic initiatives, such as potential mergers and increased shareholder confidence, provide a positive long-term outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:GNC stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Greencore’s Voting Rights Restructure Following Bank of America Transaction
Neutral
Apr 15, 2025

Greencore Group plc has announced a significant change in its voting rights structure due to an acquisition or disposal of financial instruments by Bank of America Corporation. The notification reveals that Bank of America’s voting rights in Greencore have decreased significantly from 8.089045% to 1.441075%. This shift in holdings could impact Greencore’s shareholder dynamics and influence future corporate decisions.

Spark’s Take on GB:GNC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:GNC is a Outperform.

Greencore is in a strong financial position with effective cash management and shareholder returns. Despite a stable revenue base, there’s room for margin improvement. Technical indicators suggest caution, but recent corporate events and earnings call provide a positive outlook, supporting a moderate stock score.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:GNC stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Bank of America Increases Stake in Greencore Group PLC
Neutral
Apr 14, 2025

Greencore Group PLC has announced that Bank of America Corporation has crossed a significant threshold in its voting rights within the company, now holding a total of 8.089045% of voting rights. This change, effective from April 10, 2025, reflects Bank of America’s strategic financial movements through both direct shares and financial instruments, potentially impacting Greencore’s shareholder dynamics and market positioning.

Spark’s Take on GB:GNC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:GNC is a Outperform.

Greencore is in a strong financial position with effective cash management and shareholder returns. Despite a stable revenue base, there’s room for margin improvement. Technical indicators suggest caution, but recent corporate events and earnings call provide a positive outlook, supporting a moderate stock score.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:GNC stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Greencore Group Announces Change in Voting Rights Structure
Neutral
Apr 4, 2025

Greencore Group plc has announced a significant change in its voting rights structure following an acquisition by JPMorgan Asset Management Holdings Inc., which now holds a total of 5.136534% of the voting rights. This acquisition marks a notable shift in the company’s shareholder dynamics, potentially impacting its strategic decisions and stakeholder relations.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BlackRock Increases Stake in Greencore Group PLC
Positive
Apr 3, 2025

Greencore Group PLC, a company in the food manufacturing industry, has announced a significant change in its shareholder structure. BlackRock, Inc. has increased its holdings in Greencore, surpassing the 5% threshold, now holding 5.29% of voting rights. This acquisition may influence Greencore’s strategic decisions and impact its market positioning, as BlackRock’s increased stake indicates a strong vote of confidence in the company’s future prospects.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Greencore and Bakkavor Agree on Potential Merger to Form Leading UK Convenience Food Business
Positive
Apr 2, 2025

Greencore Group PLC and Bakkavor Group PLC have reached an agreement in principle on a possible cash and share offer by Greencore for Bakkavor, aiming to create a leading UK convenience food business with a combined revenue of approximately £4 billion. The proposed merger is expected to bring strategic and financial benefits, including enhanced innovation, supply chain capabilities, and economies of scale, which could lead to significant value creation for stakeholders and increased market capitalisation.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greencore Exceeds Profit Expectations with Strong Q2 Performance
Positive
Apr 1, 2025

Greencore Group PLC reported strong revenue and volume growth in the second quarter of 2025, driven by customer expansion and new business acquisitions from the previous year. The company exceeded management’s profit expectations due to operational and commercial excellence initiatives and cost control measures. Greencore now anticipates its adjusted operating profit for the full year 2025 to surpass market expectations, ranging between £112-£115 million. This positive outlook underscores Greencore’s robust market positioning and operational efficiency, potentially benefiting stakeholders and enhancing its competitive edge in the convenience food industry.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Greencore’s Shareholder Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Mar 28, 2025

Greencore Group PLC has announced a change in the voting rights attached to its shares, following a transaction involving BlackRock, Inc. BlackRock’s holdings in Greencore have fallen below the 5% threshold, now standing at 4.98%. This adjustment in voting rights may influence Greencore’s shareholder dynamics and could have implications for the company’s governance and decision-making processes.

Other
Greencore’s Shareholding Update: BlackRock’s Stake Falls Below 5%
Neutral
Mar 25, 2025

Greencore Group PLC has announced a change in the voting rights attached to its shares, with BlackRock, Inc.’s holdings falling below the 5% threshold. This adjustment in shareholding indicates a shift in the investment landscape for Greencore, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

M&A Transactions
Greencore’s Acquisition Proposals for Bakkavor Rejected
Negative
Mar 14, 2025

Greencore Group PLC has made two proposals to acquire Bakkavor Group plc, both of which were rejected by Bakkavor’s board. The revised proposal offered a combination of cash and shares, valuing Bakkavor at a 25% premium to its recent share price. Greencore believes the acquisition would create a leading UK convenience food business with significant revenue and potential for growth, benefiting shareholders with enhanced market capitalisation and liquidity.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Greencore Announces Current Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

Greencore Group PLC has announced that its issued ordinary share capital consists of 441,603,994 ordinary shares, each carrying one vote, resulting in a total of 441,603,994 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders as it serves as the denominator for calculating their interests or changes in interests under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UBS Reduces Stake in Greencore Group, Falling Below 5% Threshold
Neutral
Feb 19, 2025

UBS Group AG’s trading book holdings in Greencore Group PLC have fallen below the 5% threshold, resulting in an exemption from reporting requirements. This change in holdings marks a shift in UBS’s investment strategy and could impact Greencore’s market dynamics and investor relations, as significant shifts in shareholder composition can influence company operations and market perceptions.

Business Operations and Strategy
BlackRock Increases Stake in Greencore Group PLC
Neutral
Feb 13, 2025

Greencore Group PLC, a non-UK company, has announced that BlackRock, Inc., a major shareholder based in the USA, has crossed a voting rights threshold. As of February 12, 2025, BlackRock holds 5% of the voting rights in Greencore, with 4.44% attached to shares and 0.56% through financial instruments. This change in voting rights position, previously below 5%, reflects BlackRock’s increased influence in Greencore’s decision-making, potentially impacting the company’s future strategies and stakeholder dynamics.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greencore Unveils Strategic Direction and Financial Targets at Capital Markets Day
Positive
Feb 5, 2025

Greencore Group PLC hosted a Capital Markets Day in London to present its refined strategic direction, focusing on product innovation, automation, and operational excellence. The event highlighted Greencore’s robust core business, growth opportunities through M&A, and new medium-term financial targets aimed at enhancing shareholder value. The company’s leadership emphasized its commitment to delivering these targets, which include a return on invested capital of over 15%, revenue growth of 3-5%, and maintaining strong cash conversion. This strategic shift is expected to drive significant incremental value for shareholders, customers, and partners.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.