Hilton Food Group PLC (GB:HFG)
LSE:HFG
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Hilton Food
(LSE:HFG)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
539.00 p
▲(3.65% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker cash flow reliability and cautious 2026 guidance indicating near-term profit pressure, despite moderate profitability. Offsetting these are a very attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield) and mildly improving near-term technical momentum, though the longer-term trend remains a headwind.
Positive Factors
Retail-aligned high-volume supply model
Hilton's business model of operating dedicated, retailer-aligned processing and packing facilities creates durable, recurring revenue streams tied to major grocers. Long-term high-volume contracts support predictable throughput, operational scale economics and closer customer integration that raise switching costs and underpins steady baseline demand.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent cash generation; negative FCF in 2025
The recent sharp fall in operating cash flow and a negative free cash flow year reduce the reliability of internal funding. Over the medium term this complicates funding of elevated capex for growth projects, maintaining progressive dividends and meeting target cash conversion, potentially forcing asset sales or incremental borrowing to bridge gaps.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Retail-aligned high-volume supply model
Hilton's business model of operating dedicated, retailer-aligned processing and packing facilities creates durable, recurring revenue streams tied to major grocers. Long-term high-volume contracts support predictable throughput, operational scale economics and closer customer integration that raise switching costs and underpins steady baseline demand.
Read all positive factors
Hilton Food (HFG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£480.47M
Dividend Yield7.01%
Average Volume (3M)491.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.6
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth5.67%
EPS Growth22.05%
CountryUK
Employees7,856
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding89,955,710
10 Day Avg. Volume259,872
30 Day Avg. Volume491,350
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.46
Price to Book (P/B)1.24
Price to Sales (P/S)0.11
P/FCF Ratio-24.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£640.00Price Target Upside23.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)£4.22B
Hilton Food Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hilton Food Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food packing business. The company offers a range of fresh items, such as roasting joints, steaks, chops, and minces. It also provides value-added products comprising barbecue r...
How the Company Makes Money
Hilton Food primarily makes money by supplying packaged food products—most notably fresh meat and seafood—to large retail customers under long-term, high-volume supply arrangements. Revenue is generated from the sale of these products to retailers...
Hilton Food Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 31, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: the group has a resilient core meat business, strong liquidity (refinanced GBP 450m RCF) and has realized material value from disposals, with growth projects (Canada, Saudi Arabia, Poland) progressing. However, these positives are counterbalanced by material underperformance and cash/exceptional costs in seafood, vegetarian/vegan segments (Seachill, Foppen, Dalco), inventory write-offs and restructuring charges, and a guidance-led reduction in adjusted PBT for 2026. Management has set a clear strategic plan and financial framework to address weaknesses and target mid-single-digit operating profit growth and >20% ROCE over the medium term, but there are material near-term headwinds and elevated capex/cash demands.Positive Updates
Resilient Core Business
Core meat and fresh prepared food businesses account for ~90% of revenue and remained stable despite a challenging environment: volumes from continuing operations rose 0.2% and core meat volumes in the U.K. were only slightly down despite beef inflation of more than 30%. APAC delivered volume growth and Central Europe achieved double-digit growth in fresh prepared foods.
Negative Updates
Underperformance in Seafood, Vegetarian & Vegan Segments
Seafood, vegetarian and vegan volumes fell 2.6%. Seachill moved into a loss-making position and overall these segments severely pressured group profit and are cited as a key reason for the expected profit reduction in 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Resilient Core Business
Core meat and fresh prepared food businesses account for ~90% of revenue and remained stable despite a challenging environment: volumes from continuing operations rose 0.2% and core meat volumes in the U.K. were only slightly down despite beef inflation of more than 30%. APAC delivered volume growth and Central Europe achieved double-digit growth in fresh prepared foods.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 guidance of adjusted PBT of GBP 60–65m (unchanged since January) after reporting FY2025 adjusted PBT of GBP 73.2m (down c.3% y/y; continuing PBT GBP 69.0m, down 1%), adjusted EPS 56p (‑7.4%) and a tax rate of c.30%; volumes from continuing operations were +0.2% while constant‑currency revenue rose 11.9% and constant‑currency operating profit fell 4.4% (operating margin 2.3% v 2.6% prior). Balance sheet and cash metrics include net bank debt of GBP 126.7m (net debt/EBITDA 0.9x), a GBP 450m 5‑year RCF, core net CapEx of GBP 46.5m in 2025 (core CapEx guidance GBP 50–55m in 2026), GBP 55m spent to date on the Canada project (expected to contribute from 2027 with full benefits by 2029), planned Poland capacity investment of up to GBP 30m, expected net debt increase in 2026, target cash‑flow conversion ~100% (FCF/net income) and a group ROCE target ≥20% (20.1% in 2025, likely below 20% in 2026). Notable one‑offs and provisions: non‑underlying/exceptional net profit GBP 29.3m (including disposal profits of GBP 66.5m), inventory write‑off GBP 18.4m, Foppen relocation cash costs GBP 9.2m, reorganization costs GBP 9.6m (vs GBP 4.2m in 2024) with expected restructuring spend GBP 5–10m p.a.; the medium‑term aim is mid‑single‑digit average operating profit growth, disciplined investment and progressive dividends (FY DPS 35p, +1.4%, final dividend flat).Hilton Food Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.21B | 3.99B | 3.99B | 3.85B | 3.30B |
| Gross Profit | 359.40M | 456.90M | 430.35M | 295.05M | 295.13M |
| EBITDA | 140.90M | 178.70M | 163.59M | 140.86M | 131.34M |
| Net Income | 47.90M | 39.30M | 36.38M | 17.71M | 37.14M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.35B | 1.24B | 1.29B | 1.30B | 1.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 150.50M | 112.00M | 126.70M | 87.22M | 140.17M |
| Total Debt | 475.30M | 449.30M | 493.29M | 544.95M | 468.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 982.20M | 919.60M | 967.77M | 990.47M | 859.48M |
| Stockholders Equity | 365.90M | 306.60M | 310.31M | 294.36M | 301.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -18.70M | 49.90M | 107.32M | 3.93M | 30.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 70.10M | 124.50M | 166.93M | 60.69M | 88.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.50M | -62.30M | -54.80M | -139.06M | -98.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.00M | -72.60M | -71.35M | 24.82M | 27.81M |
Hilton Food Technical Analysis
Positive
520.00
Price Trends
511.76
Positive
505.62
Positive
609.80
Negative
Market Momentum
7.30
Negative
60.02
Neutral
54.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:HFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 520 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 510.65, above the 50-day MA of 511.76, and below the 200-day MA of 609.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 7.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:HFG.
Hilton Food Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | £2.88B | 8.36 | 14.71% | 2.06% | 6.96% | 28.47% | |
76 Outperform | £1.70B | 8.95 | 9.27% | 1.62% | 0.50% | 20.52% | |
70 Outperform | £2.03B | 17.26 | 12.20% | 0.79% | 7.74% | 31.48% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | £480.47M | 3.61 | 14.17% | 7.01% | 5.67% | 22.05% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
GB:HFG
Hilton Food
535.00
-308.20
-36.55%
GB:CWK
Cranswick
5,340.00
291.48
5.77%
GB:PFD
Premier Foods
196.90
3.25
1.68%
GB:ZAM
Zambeef Product
5.10
0.65
14.61%
GB:GNC
Greencore
254.60
75.31
42.00%
Hilton Food Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Hilton Food Director Buys Shares, Signalling Confidence and Strengthened Alignment
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
Hilton Food Group reported that non-executive director and PDMR Bindi Foyle purchased 1,650 ordinary shares in the company on 1 April 2026 at a price of £5.16 per share. The director’s first disclosed share purchase, made via a market t...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hilton Food Refocuses on Core Meat Business After Resilient 2025
Neutral
Mar 31, 2026
Hilton Food Group reported resilient 2025 trading in its core retail meat and fresh prepared food businesses, with volumes broadly flat and revenue from continuing operations up nearly 12% on a constant currency basis, despite inflationary pressur...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Hilton Food Executive Chair Increases Stake with Purchase of 42,500 Shares
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
Hilton Food Group plc has disclosed that its Executive Chair and person discharging managerial responsibilities (PDMR), Mark Allen, purchased 42,500 ordinary shares in the company on 30 January 2026 at a price of £4.68 per share, bringing his...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Hilton Food Confirms 2025 In-Line but Cuts 2026 Profit Outlook as Salmon Issues Persist
Negative
Jan 29, 2026
Hilton Food Group said its adjusted profit before tax for 2025 is expected to come in within guidance at £72m–£75m, supported by strong Christmas trading in red meat and salmon and successful renewal of core retail meat contracts i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.