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Admiral Group PLC (GB:ADM)
LSE:ADM

Admiral (ADM) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:ADM

Admiral

(LSE:ADM)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
3,118.00p
▲(13.46% Upside)
Admiral's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, highlighting record profits and customer growth. The valuation is attractive with a high dividend yield. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, which could pose short-term challenges.
Positive Factors
Record profit & customer growth
A 69% jump in pretax profit and a one‑million customer increase signal scalable underwriting and distribution strength. Larger customer base enhances cross‑sell, spreads fixed costs and supports durable premium income and earnings resilience over multiple cycles.
Improving underwriting metrics
A multi‑point combined ratio improvement reflects sustained underwriting discipline and pricing effectiveness. Persistent improvements in combined ratios suggest the business can convert top‑line into underwriting profit even with cyclical claim frequency shifts.
Solid balance sheet & cash generation
Moderate leverage, very high ROE and positive free cash flow growth provide financial flexibility for dividends, reserve strengthening and tech investment. Strong cash conversion underpins capital returns and buffers underwriting volatility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Zero EBIT margin in 2024
A reported 0% EBIT margin indicates operating profitability compression before interest and tax, raising concerns about core operating efficiency. Reliance on non‑operating items to drive net profit can reduce resilience if investment income or one‑offs reverse.
Concentration in U.K. Motor exposure
Heavy reliance on UK motor premiums exposes Admiral to premium deflation when claims trends improve. Structural premium pressure without matching cost reductions could erode underwriting margins and force tougher pricing or product shifts over coming quarters.
Household subsidence and climate risk
Elevated subsidence provisions highlight sensitivity to weather extremes and property risks. Increasing climate‑linked loss frequency amplifies reserve volatility and potential reinsurance costs, pressuring combined ratios and capital if such events become more frequent.

Admiral (ADM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Admiral Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAdmiral Group plc provides car insurance products in the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, France, India, and the United States. The company operates through UK Insurance, International Insurance, Admiral Loans, and Other segments. It underwrites car, van, household, and travel insurance, as well as offers unsecured personal and car loans, and legal services. It offers its insurance products under the Admiral, Apparent, Balumba, Bell, Diamond, Elephant, Elephant Auto, Gladiator, L'Olivier, Qualitas Auto, and WiYou Seguros brand names, as well as through Compare.com and ConTe.it. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Cardiff, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyAdmiral generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance policies. The company's main revenue stream comes from premiums paid by policyholders for motor insurance, which constitutes the bulk of its business. Additionally, Admiral earns money from home insurance and other ancillary products. The company employs a direct-to-consumer model, which allows it to retain a larger share of the premium income by reducing reliance on intermediaries. Significant partnerships with automotive companies and financial institutions also contribute to its earnings by providing bundled offerings and cross-selling opportunities. Furthermore, Admiral leverages data analytics to optimize pricing strategies and improve underwriting processes, enhancing profitability and customer retention.

Admiral Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call demonstrated a robust financial performance with record profits, significant growth in customer base, and strong performance in multiple segments including U.K. Motor and European operations. Despite some challenges in Italy and potential risks in Household insurance, the company's strategic advancements and technological improvements position it well for future growth.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Profit and Customer Growth
Admiral Group delivered a record profit of GBP 521 million, a 70% increase year-on-year, while adding 1 million customers, marking a 10% increase versus last year.
Strong Performance in U.K. Insurance
U.K. Motor insurance was the key driver, with a significant increase in underwriting results and a 3-point improvement in the combined ratio. U.K. Household and Admiral Money both doubled their profits.
Impressive Growth in Europe
Significant progress in European operations with profitable growth in France, a turnaround in Italy, and promising performance in Spain.
Enhanced Technological Capabilities
Continuous optimization of machine learning models, focus on claims beyond pricing, and promising initial results from GenAI pilots.
High Employee and Customer Satisfaction
Strong Net Promoter Score above 50% and high employee retention with Admiral ranking in the top 25 best places to work worldwide.
Strong Capital Position and Dividend Increase
Reported a robust solvency position and declared a much larger interim dividend of over 60% to 115p a share.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Italy
The Italian business, ConTe, faced challenges but showed signs of recovery with a 13-point improvement in the combined ratio.
Impact of Market Conditions on U.K. Motor
The U.K. Motor market showed a decrease in premiums due to favorable claims trends, which could impact future profitability if not adjusted.
Potential Impact of Subsidence Risk in Household Insurance
Provision for elevated subsidence risk due to particularly dry weather, which could affect future performance in Household insurance.
Company Guidance
During the first half of 2025, Admiral Group reported a record pretax profit of GBP 521 million, marking a 69% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the U.K. Motor insurance segment, which experienced strong underwriting results. The group's customer base expanded by 1 million to a total of 13% growth year-on-year across the U.K. insurance sector. Admiral's combined ratio improved by 3 points, with the U.K. Household and Admiral Money both doubling their profits. Admiral maintained pricing discipline despite a softening market, reflecting a strong Net Promoter Score above 50%. The company's expense ratios improved across U.K. Motor, U.K. Household, and Europe, and Admiral Money saw a 25% increase in on-balance sheet loans to GBP 1.3 billion. The group announced a significant increase in the interim dividend by over 60% to 115p per share. Additionally, the group continued to enhance its data and technology capabilities, optimizing machine learning models for pricing and claims, while exploring the potential of Generative AI to improve customer experience and operational efficiencies.

Admiral Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Admiral has shown strong revenue growth and profitability, with a significant increase in net profit margin to 13.63% in 2024. The balance sheet indicates improved leverage and strong return on equity, while cash flow statements reflect positive cash generation. However, the zero EBIT margin in 2024 is a concern.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Admiral has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a noticeable increase from £1.22 billion in 2019 to £4.87 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at over 98% for 2024, indicating efficient cost management and strong profitability. However, the EBIT margin for 2024 is 0%, which is concerning, though the EBITDA margin remains healthy at 19.56%. The net profit margin has improved significantly to 13.63% in 2024, showing enhanced profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved over the years, standing at 1.02 in 2024, reflecting a balanced leverage. The equity ratio is at 17.24%, suggesting moderate stability with some room for improvement. Return on equity is strong at 48.41%, indicating effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Admiral's free cash flow growth rate from 2023 to 2024 is 10.69%, reflecting positive cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.56 for 2024, showing reasonable cash flow efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.34, which indicates decent free cash flow relative to net income but suggests potential for improvement.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.12B5.27B3.55B1.52B1.56B1.30B
Gross Profit5.12B4.81B3.51B1.52B1.56B1.30B
EBITDA1.12B924.70M501.50M403.10M776.20M830.00M
Net Income826.90M663.30M338.00M286.50M593.50M528.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.63B7.94B7.10B6.22B6.18B5.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments0.003.60B3.14B297.00M372.70M272.50M
Total Debt1.31B1.39B1.21B1.03B776.20M611.40M
Total Liabilities7.20B6.57B6.10B5.27B4.78B4.64B
Stockholders Equity1.44B1.37B991.80M954.20M1.41B1.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow288.30M224.80M203.10M210.90M468.30M732.60M
Operating Cash Flow349.70M369.00M279.00M309.50M537.50M775.70M
Investing Cash Flow-726.20M-144.20M-75.90M29.30M74.70M-226.80M
Financing Cash Flow-266.80M-257.90M-171.80M-399.70M-544.60M-481.30M

Admiral Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2748.00
Price Trends
50DMA
3038.36
Negative
100DMA
3154.96
Negative
200DMA
3197.93
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-102.24
Positive
RSI
34.33
Neutral
STOCH
32.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ADM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2748 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2893.20, below the 50-day MA of 3038.36, and below the 200-day MA of 3197.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -102.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:ADM.

Admiral Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
£6.88B9.7722.59%2.99%6.00%-24.29%
76
Outperform
£1.53B8.5115.18%11.03%8.78%-38.83%
75
Outperform
£320.99M8.2016.39%4.89%7.77%35.65%
74
Outperform
£8.53B10.3165.36%7.42%22.62%106.27%
74
Outperform
£103.55M15.6219.91%5.58%20.68%44.23%
71
Outperform
£4.83B11.0016.60%1.93%1.12%-18.14%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:ADM
Admiral
2,748.00
221.52
8.77%
GB:BEZ
Beazley
1,160.00
365.26
45.96%
GB:LRE
Lancashire Holdings
618.00
69.59
12.69%
GB:PGH
Personal Group Holdings
331.00
140.03
73.33%
GB:HSX
Hiscox
1,483.00
432.16
41.12%
GB:SBRE
Sabre Insurance Group plc
129.80
9.74
8.12%

Admiral Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Admiral Names Internal Successor as Long-Serving CFO Geraint Jones Plans 2026 Retirement
Positive
Jan 12, 2026

Admiral Group has announced that long-serving Chief Financial Officer Geraint Jones will retire from his role and move to a part-time position within the business from July 2026, after 24 years with the company and more than a decade on its board. Under Jones’s financial stewardship, Admiral has transformed into a leading personal lines insurer, nearly tripling its customer base to 11 million and growing its market capitalisation to £9.6 billion, while maintaining strong operational discipline. The group has chosen an internal successor, appointing Rachel Lewis, currently CFO of Admiral’s UK insurance business and a former Group Chief Actuary and Group Finance Director, as Group CFO and executive director from 1 July 2026, subject to regulatory approval. The leadership transition, praised by the CEO and chair as a product of Admiral’s robust succession planning, is expected to provide continuity in strategy and financial management, reinforcing the company’s stable governance and supporting its ambitions for further growth driven by customer-focused performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ADM) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Admiral stock, see the GB:ADM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Admiral Chair Mike Rogers Set to Lead Nationwide Building Society
Neutral
Jan 8, 2026

Admiral Group plc has announced that its Chair, Mike Rogers, will take on an additional role at Nationwide Building Society, where he is to be appointed an independent Non-Executive Director and Deputy Chair from 1 April 2026, with the expectation that he will become Chair on 16 July 2026, subject to approval at Nationwide’s 2026 AGM. The move underscores Rogers’ growing influence within the UK financial services sector and means Admiral’s long-standing chair will simultaneously hold a top governance role at a major mutual lender, a development that may broaden his external perspective and network but will also draw attention from stakeholders to issues of time commitment and board capacity across both organisations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ADM) stock is a Hold with a £3350.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Admiral stock, see the GB:ADM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Admiral Sells U.S. Motor Insurance Arm Elephant to J.C. Flowers
Positive
Jan 5, 2026

Admiral Group has completed the sale of its U.S. motor insurance business, including Elephant Insurance Company and Elephant Insurance Services, to financial-services-focused private investment firm J.C. Flowers & Co., effective 31 December 2025. The divestment allows Admiral to sharpen its strategic focus on growth opportunities in the UK and mainland Europe, while positioning Elephant to pursue an expansion strategy in the U.S. market under new ownership, backed by J.C. Flowers’ sector expertise. Executives from both Admiral and J.C. Flowers framed the deal as enabling Elephant to maintain its customer-centric culture and flexible, value-focused auto cover offering, suggesting operational continuity for policyholders alongside a renewed push for scale and product development in the competitive U.S. auto insurance sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ADM) stock is a Hold with a £3350.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Admiral stock, see the GB:ADM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Director Scott Cargill Receives Share Vesting Under Admiral Group’s Incentive Plan
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

Admiral Group plc announced the vesting of 11,789 shares under its Discretionary Free Share Scheme to Scott Cargill, their Director overseeing Pet, Travel, and Household segments. This shareholder transaction highlights Admiral’s commitment to incentivizing managerial contributions through share awards, potentially strengthening executive alignment with the company’s growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ADM) stock is a Hold with a £3300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Admiral stock, see the GB:ADM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Admiral Group Appoints Carlos Selonke as Independent Non-Executive Director
Positive
Dec 10, 2025

Admiral Group has appointed Carlos Selonke as an Independent Non-Executive Director. Selonke, currently the Chief Information Officer at Revolut UK, brings over two decades of experience in financial services and technology management. His expertise in digital transformation and operational resilience is expected to support Admiral’s focus on leveraging data and technology to enhance customer service and sustain business growth. The appointment underscores Admiral’s commitment to evolving its operations to meet the needs of its expanding customer base and achieving positive outcomes for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ADM) stock is a Sell with a £3000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Admiral stock, see the GB:ADM Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Admiral Group CFO Donates Shares to Charity
Positive
Nov 14, 2025

Admiral Group Plc announced that Geraint Jones, the Group Chief Financial Officer, donated 7,500 ordinary shares to a UK registered charity. This transaction is part of the company’s compliance with the UK version of the EU Market Abuse Regulation, reflecting its commitment to ethical practices and corporate social responsibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ADM) stock is a Buy with a £3735.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Admiral stock, see the GB:ADM Stock Forecast page.

Other
Admiral Group CEO Sells Ordinary Shares
Neutral
Nov 11, 2025

Admiral Group plc announced a transaction involving the sale of ordinary shares by its CEO, Milena Mondini de Focatiis. The sale, which took place on the London Stock Exchange, involved 3,000 shares at a price of GBP £32.58 each. This transaction is part of the routine management of shares by individuals with managerial responsibilities within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ADM) stock is a Buy with a £3735.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Admiral stock, see the GB:ADM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025