Admiral (ADM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £9.74B
• Dividend Yield: 7.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 732.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: 22.62%
• EPS Growth: 106.27%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 15,432
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 1.32
• Shares Outstanding: 306,304,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 836,600
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 732,911
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.54
• P/FCF Ratio: 36.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £3,492.38
• Price Target Upside: 10.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: 3,490.00p ▲(10.65% Upside)

Admiral's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, highlighting record profits and customer growth. The valuation is attractive with a high dividend yield. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, which could pose short-term challenges.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Admiral's substantial revenue growth reflects its effective market penetration and product demand, supporting long-term business expansion.

Technological Advancements

Admiral's investment in technology enhances operational efficiency and customer experience, providing a competitive edge in the insurance sector.

Profitability and Dividend Increase

Strong profitability and increased dividends indicate financial health and shareholder value, supporting long-term investor confidence.

Negative Factors

Zero EBIT Margin

A zero EBIT margin suggests potential operational inefficiencies or cost pressures, which could impact future profitability if not addressed.

Challenges in Italian Market

Ongoing challenges in Italy could limit growth and profitability in this region, requiring strategic focus to ensure recovery and stability.

Subsidence Risk in Household Insurance

Increased subsidence risk poses a threat to the household insurance segment, potentially impacting claims costs and profitability.

Admiral Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Admiral Group plc provides car insurance products in the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, France, India, and the United States. The company operates through UK Insurance, International Insurance, Admiral Loans, and Other segments. It underwrites car, van, household, and travel insurance, as well as offers unsecured personal and car loans, and legal services. It offers its insurance products under the Admiral, Apparent, Balumba, Bell, Diamond, Elephant, Elephant Auto, Gladiator, L'Olivier, Qualitas Auto, and WiYou Seguros brand names, as well as through Compare.com and ConTe.it. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Cardiff, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Admiral generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance policies. The company's main revenue stream comes from premiums paid by policyholders for motor insurance, which constitutes the bulk of its business. Additionally, Admiral earns money from home insurance and other ancillary products. The company employs a direct-to-consumer model, which allows it to retain a larger share of the premium income by reducing reliance on intermediaries. Significant partnerships with automotive companies and financial institutions also contribute to its earnings by providing bundled offerings and cross-selling opportunities. Furthermore, Admiral leverages data analytics to optimize pricing strategies and improve underwriting processes, enhancing profitability and customer retention.

Admiral Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Admiral has shown strong revenue growth and robust profitability metrics. Despite a zero EBIT margin in 2024, the company maintains a healthy EBITDA margin and improved net profit margin. The balance sheet reflects improved leverage and strong return on equity, while cash flow statements show positive cash generation with room for improvement.

Income Statement

Admiral has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a noticeable increase from £1.22 billion in 2019 to £4.87 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at over 98% for 2024, indicating efficient cost management and strong profitability. However, the EBIT margin for 2024 is 0%, which is concerning, though the EBITDA margin remains healthy at 19.56%. The net profit margin has improved significantly to 13.63% in 2024, showing enhanced profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved over the years, standing at 1.02 in 2024, reflecting a balanced leverage. The equity ratio is at 17.24%, suggesting moderate stability with some room for improvement. Return on equity is strong at 48.41%, indicating effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Admiral's free cash flow growth rate from 2023 to 2024 is 10.69%, reflecting positive cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.56 for 2024, showing reasonable cash flow efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.34, which indicates decent free cash flow relative to net income but suggests potential for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.12B	5.27B	3.55B	1.52B	1.56B	1.30B
Gross Profit	5.12B	4.81B	3.51B	1.52B	1.56B	1.30B
EBITDA	1.12B	924.70M	501.50M	403.10M	776.20M	830.00M
Net Income	826.90M	663.30M	338.00M	286.50M	593.50M	528.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.63B	7.94B	7.10B	6.22B	6.18B	5.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	3.60B	3.14B	297.00M	372.70M	272.50M
Total Debt	1.31B	1.39B	1.21B	1.03B	776.20M	611.40M
Total Liabilities	7.20B	6.57B	6.10B	5.27B	4.78B	4.64B
Stockholders Equity	1.44B	1.37B	991.80M	954.20M	1.41B	1.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	288.30M	224.80M	203.10M	210.90M	468.30M	732.60M
Operating Cash Flow	349.70M	369.00M	279.00M	309.50M	537.50M	775.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-726.20M	-144.20M	-75.90M	29.30M	74.70M	-226.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-266.80M	-257.90M	-171.80M	-399.70M	-544.60M	-481.30M

Admiral Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3154.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ADM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3154 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3133.50, below the 50-day MA of 3189.84, and below the 200-day MA of 3175.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:ADM.

Admiral Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LRE	76 Outperform	£1.53B	8.53	15.18%	11.03%	8.78%	-38.83%
BEZ	76 Outperform	£4.93B	7.00	22.59%	2.99%	6.00%	-24.29%
ADM	74 Outperform	£9.74B	11.78	65.36%	7.42%	22.62%	106.27%
PGH	74 Outperform	£101.68M	15.33	19.91%	5.58%	20.68%	44.23%
HSX	71 Outperform	£4.63B	10.51	16.60%	1.93%	1.12%	-18.14%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SBRE	65 Neutral	£312.69M	7.99	16.39%	4.89%	7.77%	35.65%

Admiral Corporate Events

Admiral Group CFO Donates Shares to Charity

Admiral Group Plc announced that Geraint Jones, the Group Chief Financial Officer, donated 7,500 ordinary shares to a UK registered charity. This transaction is part of the company’s compliance with the UK version of the EU Market Abuse Regulation, reflecting its commitment to ethical practices and corporate social responsibility.

Admiral Group CEO Sells Ordinary Shares

Admiral Group plc announced a transaction involving the sale of ordinary shares by its CEO, Milena Mondini de Focatiis. The sale, which took place on the London Stock Exchange, involved 3,000 shares at a price of GBP £32.58 each. This transaction is part of the routine management of shares by individuals with managerial responsibilities within the company.

Admiral Group Announces Share Acquisitions by Director and Associate

Admiral Group plc announced transactions involving the acquisition of ordinary shares by Michael Brierley, a Non-Executive Director, and Rachel Brierley, his wife. These transactions were part of a dividend reinvestment trading plan and took place on the London Stock Exchange. The acquisitions reflect ongoing engagement by company insiders with Admiral’s financial instruments, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance.

Admiral Group Director Acquires Shares in Dividend Reinvestment Plan

Admiral Group plc announced a transaction involving the acquisition of ordinary shares by Non-Executive Director William Roberts. The shares were acquired through a dividend reinvestment trading plan on the New York Stock Exchange, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to shareholder value and engagement.

Admiral CFO Acquires Shares Under Dividend Reinvestment Plan

Admiral Group plc announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Geraint Jones, has acquired ordinary shares under the company’s dividend reinvestment plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects the ongoing engagement of senior management with the company’s equity, potentially indicating confidence in Admiral’s future performance.

Admiral Group Announces Share Vesting for Key Executives

Admiral Group plc announced the vesting of shares under its Discretionary Free Share Scheme for several key executives, including the CEO, CFO, and other directors. The shares were subject to performance conditions from January 2022 to December 2024, with a portion of the vested shares sold to cover personal tax and national insurance liabilities. This transaction highlights the company’s commitment to rewarding its leadership team based on performance, potentially impacting stakeholder perception positively.