Admiral Group PLC (GB:ADM)
LSE:ADM
Top Page
Admiral
(LSE:ADM)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
3,509.00 p
▲(14.67% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (improving cash generation and sharply reduced leverage) and very attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are moderated by only partially improved technicals (still below the 200-day average) and earnings-call guidance pointing to flatter 2026 profit amid U.K. Motor cyclical and loss-ratio pressures.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
A clear 2025 inflection in cash generation materially strengthens the firm's ability to fund dividends, buybacks, M&A and tech investment from operating sources. While prior years showed variability, sustained higher FCF supports durable capital allocation and downside resilience.
Negative Factors
Worsening U.K. Motor loss ratios
A material rise in motor loss ratios directly erodes underwriting margins and combined-ratio durability. If pricing lags claims inflation, sustained higher loss ratios will compress profits and require either continued price recovery or shifting mix, stressing medium-term underwriting returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
A clear 2025 inflection in cash generation materially strengthens the firm's ability to fund dividends, buybacks, M&A and tech investment from operating sources. While prior years showed variability, sustained higher FCF supports durable capital allocation and downside resilience.
Read all positive factors
Admiral (ADM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£9.37B
Dividend Yield7.42%
Average Volume (3M)732.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.9
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth22.62%
EPS Growth106.27%
CountryUK
Employees15,432
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.11
Shares Outstanding306,304,700
10 Day Avg. Volume836,600
30 Day Avg. Volume732,911
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.96
Price to Book (P/B)6.63
Price to Sales (P/S)1.72
P/FCF Ratio14.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£3,328.27Price Target Upside8.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)£5.19B
Admiral Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Admiral Group plc provides car insurance products in the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, France, India, and the United States. The company operates through UK Insurance, International Insurance, Admiral Loans, and Other segments. It underwrites car,...
How the Company Makes Money
Admiral generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance policies. The company's main revenue stream comes from premiums paid by policyholders for motor insurance, which constitutes the bulk of its business. Additionally, Admiral earns mo...
Admiral Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive tone: Admiral delivered record profits, strong shareholder returns, robust capital ratios and meaningful strategic progress (AI, diversification, Europe recovery, Admiral Money growth). These positives are tempered by short-term market and pricing pressures in U.K. Motor, higher loss ratios versus the exceptionally strong 2024 comparators, and some one-off/restructuring impacts in parts of Europe. Management expects flat group profit in 2026 as the less-profitable 2025 underwriting year feeds through but emphasises continued strategic investment, internal-model progress and optionality from buybacks and M&A to drive medium-term value.Positive Updates
Record Group Profit
Group profit hit a record GBP 958m in 2025, up 16% year-on-year (or +28% if excluding the Ogden impact), reflecting disciplined execution and group-wide contribution.
Negative Updates
Motor Pricing Pressure and Turnover Decline
Average premiums declined ~10% in 2025 (market-wide), and U.K. Motor turnover fell ~7% as the business reduced prices in H1 2025 to manage the cycle; new business market share softened in H2 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Group Profit
Group profit hit a record GBP 958m in 2025, up 16% year-on-year (or +28% if excluding the Ogden impact), reflecting disciplined execution and group-wide contribution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 should see group profit broadly flat versus 2025’s record GBP 958m (up 16% y/y), with turnover modestly higher and faster growth coming from U.K. Personal Lines, Admiral Money and Europe; U.K. Motor pricing has started to rise (low single‑digit increases) to offset mid‑single‑digit claims inflation, and reserve strength will move from near‑maximum toward the middle of the range during 2026. Capital guidance: year‑end solvency was 193%, the post‑internal‑model target range is 150–170% (upper end), the proposed final dividend is 90p (total 205p; ~£620m; +7% y/y) with an ordinary payout of 65% of earnings, the 90% total‑return guidance should broadly hold and the Board will use buybacks (interim and final 2026 subject to approval) alongside share purchases for schemes (trust bought ~1m shares for ~£30m in Q4 and expects ~3m purchases in 2026); the Flock acquisition would reduce solvency by a little under 10pp if completed. Technology and efficiency guidance includes scaling >150 gen‑AI initiatives supporting >4,000 colleagues, leveraging predictive AI (c.£100m incremental loss‑ratio value to date) and targeting >£100m p.a. of efficiency benefits by 2028.Admiral Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.57B | 5.27B | 3.55B | 1.52B | 1.56B |
| Gross Profit | 5.57B | 4.81B | 3.51B | 1.52B | 1.56B |
| EBITDA | 1.12B | 924.70M | 501.50M | 403.10M | 776.20M |
| Net Income | 742.60M | 663.30M | 338.00M | 286.50M | 593.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.02B | 7.94B | 7.10B | 6.22B | 6.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 301.10M | 3.60B | 3.14B | 297.00M | 372.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.89B | 1.39B | 1.21B | 1.03B | 776.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.58B | 6.57B | 6.10B | 5.27B | 4.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.44B | 1.37B | 991.80M | 954.20M | 1.41B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 652.40M | 224.80M | 203.10M | 210.90M | 468.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 726.70M | 369.00M | 279.00M | 309.50M | 537.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -440.50M | -144.20M | -75.90M | 29.30M | 74.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -278.10M | -257.90M | -171.80M | -399.70M | -544.60M |
Admiral Technical Analysis
Neutral
3060.00
Price Trends
2946.08
Positive
3040.38
Positive
3168.31
Negative
Market Momentum
48.86
Positive
47.77
Neutral
9.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ADM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3060 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3133.70, above the 50-day MA of 2946.08, and below the 200-day MA of 3168.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 48.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:ADM.
Admiral Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | £105.42M | 13.42 | 19.04% | 5.58% | 20.68% | 44.23% | |
80 Outperform | £7.47B | 7.34 | 22.59% | 2.99% | 6.00% | -24.29% | |
78 Outperform | £9.37B | 12.89 | 51.59% | 7.42% | 22.62% | 106.27% | |
75 Outperform | £4.88B | 4.20 | 15.63% | 1.93% | 1.12% | -18.14% | |
75 Outperform | £374.25M | 8.52 | 11.29% | 4.89% | 7.77% | 35.65% | |
74 Outperform | £1.42B | 6.98 | 15.28% | 11.03% | 8.78% | -38.83% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:ADM
Admiral
3,060.00
403.00
15.17%
GB:BEZ
Beazley
1,268.00
358.94
39.48%
GB:LRE
Lancashire Holdings
580.00
98.01
20.33%
GB:PGH
Personal Group Holdings
338.00
99.29
41.59%
GB:HSX
Hiscox
1,510.00
365.75
31.96%
GB:SBRE
Sabre Insurance Group plc
153.20
36.92
31.76%
Admiral Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Admiral posts record 2025 profit and doubles down on data-driven growth
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Admiral reported record 2025 profits of £958 million, up 16%, driven by strong UK motor performance, growth in other personal lines and Admiral Money, and a 7% increase in customers despite softer UK motor pricing and macroeconomic uncertaint...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Admiral Reports No Share Allotments Under Incentive and Employee Trust Schemes
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
Admiral Group Plc has reported that there was no change in the number of shares issued or allotted under its Approved Share Incentive Plan during the six-month period to 1 March 2026, leaving 2,499,751 shares still available within the existing bl...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Admiral Group to Acquire Telemetry Insurtech Flock in £80m Fleet Insurance Push
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Admiral Group has agreed to acquire Flock, a London-based digital commercial fleet insurer that uses AI-driven telemetry and real-time driving data to price risk and reward safer driving, in a deal valuing Flock’s equity at £80m, subjec...
Executive/Board Changes
Admiral Director Evelyn Bourke Joins St. James’s Place Board
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
Admiral Group plc has announced that independent non-executive director Evelyn Bourke will take on an additional role as an independent non-executive director at St. James’s Place plc from 1 March 2026, where she will also serve on the Group...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Admiral Names Internal Successor as Long-Serving CFO Geraint Jones Plans 2026 Retirement
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
Admiral Group has announced that long-serving Chief Financial Officer Geraint Jones will retire from his role and move to a part-time position within the business from July 2026, after 24 years with the company and more than a decade on its board....
Executive/Board Changes
Admiral Chair Mike Rogers Set to Lead Nationwide Building Society
Neutral
Jan 8, 2026
Admiral Group plc has announced that its Chair, Mike Rogers, will take on an additional role at Nationwide Building Society, where he is to be appointed an independent Non-Executive Director and Deputy Chair from 1 April 2026, with the expectation...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Admiral Sells U.S. Motor Insurance Arm Elephant to J.C. Flowers
Positive
Jan 5, 2026
Admiral Group has completed the sale of its U.S. motor insurance business, including Elephant Insurance Company and Elephant Insurance Services, to financial-services-focused private investment firm J.C. Flowers Co., effective 31 December 2025. T...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Director Scott Cargill Receives Share Vesting Under Admiral Group’s Incentive Plan
Positive
Dec 17, 2025
Admiral Group plc announced the vesting of 11,789 shares under its Discretionary Free Share Scheme to Scott Cargill, their Director overseeing Pet, Travel, and Household segments. This shareholder transaction highlights Admiral’s commitment ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Admiral Group Appoints Carlos Selonke as Independent Non-Executive Director
Positive
Dec 10, 2025
Admiral Group has appointed Carlos Selonke as an Independent Non-Executive Director. Selonke, currently the Chief Information Officer at Revolut UK, brings over two decades of experience in financial services and technology management. His experti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.