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Admiral
(LSE:ADM)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
4,058.00 p
▲(20.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (improving cash generation and sharply reduced leverage) and very attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are moderated by only partially improved technicals (still below the 200-day average) and earnings-call guidance pointing to flatter 2026 profit amid U.K. Motor cyclical and loss-ratio pressures.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow strength
A clear 2025 inflection in cash generation (operating cash ~£727m; free cash ~£652m) indicates durable internal financing capacity. Strong FCF supports sustained dividends, buybacks, M&A optionality and reinvestment in tech, improving resilience through insurance cycles and lowering external funding reliance.
Negative Factors
U.K. Motor pricing and loss‑ratio pressure
Significant 2025 premium declines and lower motor turnover reflect a cyclical insurance market where pricing lags claims inflation. Persistently weak pricing or delayed market repricing can depress underwriting margins and keep group profit growth muted, limiting the durability of recent profit gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow strength
A clear 2025 inflection in cash generation (operating cash ~£727m; free cash ~£652m) indicates durable internal financing capacity. Strong FCF supports sustained dividends, buybacks, M&A optionality and reinvestment in tech, improving resilience through insurance cycles and lowering external funding reliance.
Read all positive factors
Admiral (ADM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£10.90B
Dividend Yield7.42%
Average Volume (3M)732.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.4
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth5.63%
EPS Growth15.65%
CountryUK
Employees14,903
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.48
Shares Outstanding306,304,700
10 Day Avg. Volume836,600
30 Day Avg. Volume732,911
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.97
Price to Book (P/B)6.63
Price to Sales (P/S)1.72
P/FCF Ratio14.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£3,500.00Price Target Upside3.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)£5.10B
Admiral Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Admiral Group plc, a financial services company, provides insurance and personal lending products in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Spain. It operates through four segments: UK Insurance, European Insurance, Admiral Money, and Other. The c...
How the Company Makes Money
Admiral makes money primarily by underwriting personal lines insurance and by earning fees/commission from insurance distribution and ancillary services. (1) Insurance underwriting: The core revenue stream is premium income from policyholders, esp...
Admiral Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive tone: Admiral delivered record profits, strong shareholder returns, robust capital ratios and meaningful strategic progress (AI, diversification, Europe recovery, Admiral Money growth). These positives are tempered by short-term market and pricing pressures in U.K. Motor, higher loss ratios versus the exceptionally strong 2024 comparators, and some one-off/restructuring impacts in parts of Europe. Management expects flat group profit in 2026 as the less-profitable 2025 underwriting year feeds through but emphasises continued strategic investment, internal-model progress and optionality from buybacks and M&A to drive medium-term value.Positive Updates
Record Group Profit
Group profit hit a record GBP 958m in 2025, up 16% year-on-year (or +28% if excluding the Ogden impact), reflecting disciplined execution and group-wide contribution.
Negative Updates
Motor Pricing Pressure and Turnover Decline
Average premiums declined ~10% in 2025 (market-wide), and U.K. Motor turnover fell ~7% as the business reduced prices in H1 2025 to manage the cycle; new business market share softened in H2 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Group Profit
Group profit hit a record GBP 958m in 2025, up 16% year-on-year (or +28% if excluding the Ogden impact), reflecting disciplined execution and group-wide contribution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 should see group profit broadly flat versus 2025’s record GBP 958m (up 16% y/y), with turnover modestly higher and faster growth coming from U.K. Personal Lines, Admiral Money and Europe; U.K. Motor pricing has started to rise (low single‑digit increases) to offset mid‑single‑digit claims inflation, and reserve strength will move from near‑maximum toward the middle of the range during 2026. Capital guidance: year‑end solvency was 193%, the post‑internal‑model target range is 150–170% (upper end), the proposed final dividend is 90p (total 205p; ~£620m; +7% y/y) with an ordinary payout of 65% of earnings, the 90% total‑return guidance should broadly hold and the Board will use buybacks (interim and final 2026 subject to approval) alongside share purchases for schemes (trust bought ~1m shares for ~£30m in Q4 and expects ~3m purchases in 2026); the Flock acquisition would reduce solvency by a little under 10pp if completed. Technology and efficiency guidance includes scaling >150 gen‑AI initiatives supporting >4,000 colleagues, leveraging predictive AI (c.£100m incremental loss‑ratio value to date) and targeting >£100m p.a. of efficiency benefits by 2028.Admiral Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.57B | 5.27B | 3.55B | 1.52B | 1.56B |
| Gross Profit | 5.57B | 4.85B | 3.51B | 1.52B | 1.56B |
| EBITDA | 1.12B | 924.70M | 501.50M | 403.10M | 776.20M |
| Net Income | 742.60M | 663.30M | 338.00M | 286.50M | 593.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.02B | 7.94B | 7.10B | 6.22B | 6.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 301.10M | 3.60B | 3.14B | 297.00M | 372.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.89B | 1.39B | 1.21B | 1.03B | 776.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.58B | 6.57B | 6.10B | 5.27B | 4.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.44B | 1.37B | 991.80M | 954.20M | 1.41B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 652.40M | 224.80M | 203.10M | 210.90M | 468.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 726.70M | 369.00M | 279.00M | 309.50M | 537.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -440.50M | -144.20M | -75.90M | 29.30M | 74.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -278.10M | -257.90M | -171.80M | -399.70M | -544.60M |
Admiral Technical Analysis
Positive
3375.00
Price Trends
3343.64
Positive
3162.62
Positive
3114.08
Positive
Market Momentum
51.78
Negative
65.53
Neutral
96.57
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ADM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3375 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3395.80, above the 50-day MA of 3343.64, and above the 200-day MA of 3114.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 51.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ADM.
Admiral Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | £121.26M | 16.33 | 20.34% | 5.58% | 10.42% | 36.57% | |
80 Outperform | £7.61B | 11.45 | 19.23% | 2.99% | 3.77% | -16.97% | |
78 Outperform | £10.90B | 14.35 | 51.59% | 7.42% | 5.63% | 15.65% | |
76 Outperform | £1.58B | 12.05 | 11.24% | 11.03% | 2.58% | -12.71% | |
75 Outperform | £5.90B | 13.45 | 15.63% | 1.93% | 2.06% | -4.60% | |
75 Outperform | £423.23M | 15.00 | 11.29% | 4.89% | -10.30% | 6.15% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:ADM
Admiral
3,560.00
446.03
14.32%
GB:BEZ
Beazley
1,287.00
403.92
45.74%
GB:LRE
Lancashire Holdings
645.50
167.98
35.18%
GB:PGH
Personal Group Holdings
385.00
106.58
38.28%
GB:HSX
Hiscox
1,847.00
644.37
53.58%
GB:SBRE
Sabre Insurance Group plc
174.00
39.03
28.92%
Admiral Corporate Events
Dividends
Admiral Director and Spouse Boost Holdings via Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
Admiral Group plc has reported share acquisitions by non-executive director Michael Brierley and his wife Rachel under an existing dividend reinvestment trading plan. On 11 June 2026, Brierley acquired 22 ordinary shares and his wife purchased 100...
Other
Admiral CFO Designate Increases Stake via Dividend Reinvestment
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
Admiral Group reported that its CFO Designate, Rachel Lewis, acquired ordinary shares in the company through a dividend reinvestment plan under the Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan. The transaction, executed on 5 June 2026 on the London...
Dividends
Admiral Director Increases Stake Through Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
Admiral Group plc has disclosed that non-executive director William Roberts acquired additional ordinary shares in the company through a dividend reinvestment trading plan. The transaction, conducted as a single trade on 8 June 2026 on the New Yor...
DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Admiral CFO Increases Stake via Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
Admiral Group plc reported that its Chief Financial Officer, Geraint Jones, acquired ordinary shares through the company’s dividend reinvestment plan under the Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan. The transaction, involving ordinary ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Admiral Group Closes £80m Deal for Telemetry Fleet Insurer Flock
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
Admiral Group has completed the £80m acquisition of Flock, a digital commercial fleet insurer that uses telemetry and AI to power its risk management platform. Flock will become Admiral’s core telemetry fleet insurance proposition, with...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Admiral shareholders back all resolutions at 2026 AGM, endorsing dividend and governance powers
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
Shareholders of Admiral Group plc approved all resolutions at the insurer’s 2026 annual general meeting held in Cardiff, including the receipt of the 2025 financial statements and the declaration of a final dividend. The strong backing acros...
Executive/Board Changes
Admiral Director Fiona Muldoon Takes Senior Board Role at Grainger
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Admiral Group has announced that independent non-executive director Fiona Muldoon will join the board of Grainger plc as an independent non-executive director from 15 April 2026. She will initially serve on Grainger’s Nomination, Remuneratio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.