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Aviva plc (GB:AV)
LSE:AV
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Aviva plc (AV) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:AV

Aviva plc

(LSE:AV)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
764.00 p
▲(10.56% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is anchored by mixed financial fundamentals—especially high cash-flow volatility—offset by strong technical momentum and a positive earnings-call outlook with raised targets and resumed capital returns. Valuation is supported by a high dividend yield but held back by a higher P/E, keeping the overall score in the upper-middle range.
Positive Factors
Scale & AUM
Large customer base and substantial AUM create durable fee income and cross-sell opportunities. Sticky workplace AUM (£153bn) and strong net flows (~£11bn) support recurring revenue, diversify earnings across products, and improve capital efficiency by converting scale into long-term distribution and margin benefits.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Large swings in operating and free cash flow across recent years undermine predictability of internally generated funding. This variability can constrain reinvestment, dividend consistency and buybacks, and may force balance sheet management actions or reliance on capital markets during adverse years, raising execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & AUM
Large customer base and substantial AUM create durable fee income and cross-sell opportunities. Sticky workplace AUM (£153bn) and strong net flows (~£11bn) support recurring revenue, diversify earnings across products, and improve capital efficiency by converting scale into long-term distribution and margin benefits.
Read all positive factors

Aviva plc (AV) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Aviva plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Aviva plc (AV) is a UK-based insurance and long-term savings group that provides life insurance, general insurance, health-related cover, and retirement and investment solutions to individuals and businesses. The company operates primarily in the ...
How the Company Makes Money
Aviva makes money mainly by underwriting insurance and managing long-term savings and investments. In general insurance (e.g., motor, home, commercial lines), it earns premium income from policyholders and aims to generate an underwriting profit w...

Aviva plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: Aviva beat near-term targets, delivered solid growth across GI, Wealth and Retirement, improved margins in many areas, and resumed capital returns (dividend and buyback). Technology and AI progress and Direct Line integration show strategic momentum. Balanced against these positives are near-term integration work for Direct Line, elevated underlying combined ratio driven by some large losses and one-off favourable items, and pockets of lower sales (protection) and IFRS dynamics in Retirement. Overall, the achievements and growth trajectory materially outweigh the challenges noted, leaving management confident in delivery of raised 3-year ambitions.
Positive Updates
Strong Group Financial Performance
Operating profit up 25% to GBP 2.2bn; operating EPS 56p; IFRS return on equity 17.5%; cash remittances up 4% to GBP 2.1bn; own funds generation (OFG) of c. GBP 2.3bn and solvency at c.180%.
Negative Updates
Underlying Combined Ratio and Large Losses
Group combined ratio reported 94.6% with an elevated underlying combined ratio (~96.7% per management commentary). Commercial Lines experienced elevated large losses in 2025 (idiosyncratic), and storm Eowyn impacted combined ratio for the year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Negative
Strong Group Financial Performance
Operating profit up 25% to GBP 2.2bn; operating EPS 56p; IFRS return on equity 17.5%; cash remittances up 4% to GBP 2.1bn; own funds generation (OFG) of c. GBP 2.3bn and solvency at c.180%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated that 2025 met or beat prior guidance (operating profit +25% to £2.2bn; EPS 56p; IFRS ROE 17.5%; cash remittances +4% to £2.1bn; solvency 180%; OFG c.£2.3bn) and set new 3‑year targets including an 11% operating EPS CAGR from a 55p baseline to ~75p by 2028; near‑term operational guidance includes a U.K. & Ireland combined ratio of better than 94% in 2026 (Canada approaching 94%), at least £350m (c.7 solvency points) of Direct Line capital benefit to be delivered around year‑end, and an expected progressive operating capital generation of c.20 solvency points in 2027 (translating to ~2–4 solvency points depending on treatment). Capital return and cost plans were also guided: a final dividend 26.2p (total 39.3p, +10% y/y), a resumed share buyback of £350m, Direct Line cost‑saving ambition uplifted to £225m (first £50m delivered in H2 2025; remaining ~£175m phased over the next three years), ~£50m of investment to unlock at least £50m p.a. of claims savings, and continued growth ambitions in Wealth and Retirement (I.e. c.£230bn AUM, ~£11bn net flows, Workplace AUM £153bn and a Mercer transfer ~£8bn).

Aviva plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue growth and a generally manageable leverage profile support the score, but profitability is thin/variable and cash-flow reliability is a major concern. Operating and free cash flow turned materially negative in 2025 after a very strong 2024, reducing confidence in the consistency of internally generated cash.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue58.51B40.86B32.92B-26.79B32.99B
Gross Profit58.51B31.76B33.95B16.20B32.99B
EBITDA2.56B1.58B2.03B-887.00M1.33B
Net Income1.03B683.00M1.08B-1.07B416.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets395.30B353.88B328.84B302.26B343.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments18.29B23.48B17.27B22.50B12.48B
Total Debt8.30B6.89B7.37B8.57B8.42B
Total Liabilities385.21B345.26B319.24B289.86B323.99B
Stockholders Equity9.69B8.30B8.79B12.09B19.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-2.96B8.27B-3.08B3.85B3.19B
Operating Cash Flow-2.87B8.45B-2.73B3.95B3.30B
Investing Cash Flow-1.14B162.00M-350.00M11.13B-6.58B
Financing Cash Flow-1.73B-2.49B-1.82B-5.47B-3.91B

Aviva plc Risk Analysis

Aviva plc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aviva plc reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Aviva plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
£21.34B25.7710.20%5.69%86.10%-17.40%
68
Neutral
£25.28B8.8319.33%0.02%61.45%78.24%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
61
Neutral
£6.02B10.9337.02%1.68%164.23%13.81%
56
Neutral
£16.32B26.2727.28%7.27%136.58%192.71%
55
Neutral
£8.42B28.529.49%5.76%52.52%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:AV
Aviva plc
726.60
97.12
15.43%
GB:LGEN
Legal & General
305.00
63.62
26.36%
GB:PRU
Prudential
1,025.00
55.74
5.75%
GB:STJ
St. James's Place
1,180.00
-97.98
-7.67%
GB:MNG
M&G Plc
355.90
108.55
43.89%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026