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Aviva plc
(LSE:AV)
Select Model
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
710.00 p
▲(10.23% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:03/07/26
The score is held back mainly by financial quality concerns—most notably cash-flow volatility and low/variable margins—despite solid balance-sheet positioning. A strongly constructive earnings call (raised targets, capital returns, and operational momentum) and an attractive dividend provide meaningful support, while the technical setup remains weak with the stock trading below major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth & diversified model
Sustained top-line expansion across General Insurance, Wealth and Retirement indicates broad-based demand and distribution scale. Diversified revenue streams reduce reliance on any single product cycle, supporting medium‑term stability in earnings potential and market position.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Large swings in operating and free cash flow undermine confidence in internally generated funding for capital returns and growth investment. This volatility can force reliance on external capital or constrain buybacks/dividends if adverse trends repeat, weakening long‑term financial predictability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth & diversified model
Sustained top-line expansion across General Insurance, Wealth and Retirement indicates broad-based demand and distribution scale. Diversified revenue streams reduce reliance on any single product cycle, supporting medium‑term stability in earnings potential and market position.
Read all positive factors
Aviva plc (AV) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£19.78B
Dividend Yield6.03%
Average Volume (3M)6.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.8
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth43.20%
EPS Growth19.23%
CountryUK
Employees39,359
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding3,001,450,700
10 Day Avg. Volume6,511,212
30 Day Avg. Volume6,638,793
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.33
P/FCF Ratio-6.60
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£715.33Price Target Upside11.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)£59.72B
Aviva plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aviva plc provides various insurance, retirement, and wealth products in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Canada, India, and China. It operates through General Insurance; Insurance, Wealth & Retirement; Aviva Investors; and International Investments s...
How the Company Makes Money
Aviva makes money mainly by underwriting insurance and managing long-term savings and investments. In general insurance (e.g., motor, home, commercial lines), it earns premium income from policyholders and aims to generate an underwriting profit w...
Aviva plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: Aviva beat near-term targets, delivered solid growth across GI, Wealth and Retirement, improved margins in many areas, and resumed capital returns (dividend and buyback). Technology and AI progress and Direct Line integration show strategic momentum. Balanced against these positives are near-term integration work for Direct Line, elevated underlying combined ratio driven by some large losses and one-off favourable items, and pockets of lower sales (protection) and IFRS dynamics in Retirement. Overall, the achievements and growth trajectory materially outweigh the challenges noted, leaving management confident in delivery of raised 3-year ambitions.Positive Updates
Strong Group Financial Performance
Operating profit up 25% to GBP 2.2bn; operating EPS 56p; IFRS return on equity 17.5%; cash remittances up 4% to GBP 2.1bn; own funds generation (OFG) of c. GBP 2.3bn and solvency at c.180%.
Negative Updates
Underlying Combined Ratio and Large Losses
Group combined ratio reported 94.6% with an elevated underlying combined ratio (~96.7% per management commentary). Commercial Lines experienced elevated large losses in 2025 (idiosyncratic), and storm Eowyn impacted combined ratio for the year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Financial Performance
Operating profit up 25% to GBP 2.2bn; operating EPS 56p; IFRS return on equity 17.5%; cash remittances up 4% to GBP 2.1bn; own funds generation (OFG) of c. GBP 2.3bn and solvency at c.180%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated that 2025 met or beat prior guidance (operating profit +25% to £2.2bn; EPS 56p; IFRS ROE 17.5%; cash remittances +4% to £2.1bn; solvency 180%; OFG c.£2.3bn) and set new 3‑year targets including an 11% operating EPS CAGR from a 55p baseline to ~75p by 2028; near‑term operational guidance includes a U.K. & Ireland combined ratio of better than 94% in 2026 (Canada approaching 94%), at least £350m (c.7 solvency points) of Direct Line capital benefit to be delivered around year‑end, and an expected progressive operating capital generation of c.20 solvency points in 2027 (translating to ~2–4 solvency points depending on treatment). Capital return and cost plans were also guided: a final dividend 26.2p (total 39.3p, +10% y/y), a resumed share buyback of £350m, Direct Line cost‑saving ambition uplifted to £225m (first £50m delivered in H2 2025; remaining ~£175m phased over the next three years), ~£50m of investment to unlock at least £50m p.a. of claims savings, and continued growth ambitions in Wealth and Retirement (I.e. c.£230bn AUM, ~£11bn net flows, Workplace AUM £153bn and a Mercer transfer ~£8bn).Aviva plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 58.51B | 40.86B | 32.92B | -26.79B | 32.99B |
| Gross Profit | 58.51B | 31.76B | 33.95B | 16.20B | 32.99B |
| EBITDA | 2.56B | 1.58B | 2.03B | -887.00M | 1.33B |
| Net Income | 1.03B | 683.00M | 1.08B | -1.07B | 416.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 395.30B | 353.88B | 328.84B | 302.26B | 343.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.29B | 23.48B | 17.27B | 22.50B | 12.48B |
| Total Debt | 8.30B | 6.89B | 7.37B | 8.57B | 8.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 385.21B | 345.26B | 319.24B | 289.86B | 323.99B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.69B | 8.30B | 8.79B | 12.09B | 19.20B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.96B | 8.27B | -3.08B | 3.85B | 3.19B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.87B | 8.45B | -2.73B | 3.95B | 3.30B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.14B | 162.00M | -350.00M | 11.13B | -6.58B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.73B | -2.49B | -1.82B | -5.47B | -3.91B |
Aviva plc Technical Analysis
Positive
644.10
Price Trends
631.84
Positive
625.66
Positive
629.82
Positive
Market Momentum
10.50
Negative
60.83
Neutral
45.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:AV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 644.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 650.67, above the 50-day MA of 631.84, and above the 200-day MA of 629.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 10.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:AV.
Aviva plc Risk Analysis
Aviva plc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aviva plc reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aviva plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | £26.01B | 8.90 | 26.87% | 1.56% | 61.45% | 78.24% | |
62 Neutral | £5.88B | 11.56 | 37.33% | 1.06% | 16.71% | 36.78% | |
60 Neutral | £19.78B | 21.81 | 10.20% | 6.03% | 43.20% | 19.23% | |
52 Neutral | £8.29B | 27.87 | 9.49% | 7.09% | 52.52% | ― | |
48 Neutral | £15.91B | 49.83 | 15.89% | 8.29% | 53.06% | 191.61% |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:AV
Aviva plc
661.40
64.62
10.83%
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56.61
24.15%
GB:PRU
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GB:STJ
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1,155.50
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-4.51%
GB:MNG
M&G Plc
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44.30%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.