Aviva plc (GB:AV)
LSE:AV
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Aviva plc
(LSE:AV)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
660.00 p
▲(9.93% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/07/26
The score is held back mainly by financial quality concerns—most notably cash-flow volatility and low/variable margins—despite solid balance-sheet positioning. A strongly constructive earnings call (raised targets, capital returns, and operational momentum) and an attractive dividend provide meaningful support, while the technical setup remains weak with the stock trading below major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Scale & Diversified Revenues
Aviva's large customer base and sizable Wealth AUM create durable fee and premium revenue streams. Scale across GI, Wealth and Retirement reduces reliance on any single market, supports cross‑sell (7m multiproduct holders) and sustains growth momentum and distribution advantages over the next few years.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Volatility
Large, year‑to‑year free cash flow swings reduce confidence in internally generated funding for dividends, buybacks and M&A. Persistent volatility forces greater reliance on capital markets or asset sales, complicates multi‑year planning and raises risk that capital returns or targets prove harder to sustain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Diversified Revenues
Aviva's large customer base and sizable Wealth AUM create durable fee and premium revenue streams. Scale across GI, Wealth and Retirement reduces reliance on any single market, supports cross‑sell (7m multiproduct holders) and sustains growth momentum and distribution advantages over the next few years.
Read all positive factors
Aviva plc (AV) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£18.23B
Dividend Yield6.03%
Average Volume (3M)6.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.9
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth-19.71%
EPS Growth-53.86%
CountryUK
Employees29,091
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding3,046,747,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,511,212
30 Day Avg. Volume6,638,793
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.51
Price to Book (P/B)2.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.33
P/FCF Ratio-6.60
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£725.08Price Target Upside20.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)£45.11B
Aviva plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aviva plc provides various insurance, retirement, investment, and savings products in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Canada, and internationally. The company offers life insurance, long-term health and accident insurance, savings, pension, and annui...
How the Company Makes Money
Aviva generates revenue primarily through its insurance and investment operations. The company earns money from premiums collected on life and general insurance policies, which are a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, Aviva derives ...
Aviva plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: Aviva beat near-term targets, delivered solid growth across GI, Wealth and Retirement, improved margins in many areas, and resumed capital returns (dividend and buyback). Technology and AI progress and Direct Line integration show strategic momentum. Balanced against these positives are near-term integration work for Direct Line, elevated underlying combined ratio driven by some large losses and one-off favourable items, and pockets of lower sales (protection) and IFRS dynamics in Retirement. Overall, the achievements and growth trajectory materially outweigh the challenges noted, leaving management confident in delivery of raised 3-year ambitions.Positive Updates
Strong Group Financial Performance
Operating profit up 25% to GBP 2.2bn; operating EPS 56p; IFRS return on equity 17.5%; cash remittances up 4% to GBP 2.1bn; own funds generation (OFG) of c. GBP 2.3bn and solvency at c.180%.
Negative Updates
Underlying Combined Ratio and Large Losses
Group combined ratio reported 94.6% with an elevated underlying combined ratio (~96.7% per management commentary). Commercial Lines experienced elevated large losses in 2025 (idiosyncratic), and storm Eowyn impacted combined ratio for the year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Financial Performance
Operating profit up 25% to GBP 2.2bn; operating EPS 56p; IFRS return on equity 17.5%; cash remittances up 4% to GBP 2.1bn; own funds generation (OFG) of c. GBP 2.3bn and solvency at c.180%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated that 2025 met or beat prior guidance (operating profit +25% to £2.2bn; EPS 56p; IFRS ROE 17.5%; cash remittances +4% to £2.1bn; solvency 180%; OFG c.£2.3bn) and set new 3‑year targets including an 11% operating EPS CAGR from a 55p baseline to ~75p by 2028; near‑term operational guidance includes a U.K. & Ireland combined ratio of better than 94% in 2026 (Canada approaching 94%), at least £350m (c.7 solvency points) of Direct Line capital benefit to be delivered around year‑end, and an expected progressive operating capital generation of c.20 solvency points in 2027 (translating to ~2–4 solvency points depending on treatment). Capital return and cost plans were also guided: a final dividend 26.2p (total 39.3p, +10% y/y), a resumed share buyback of £350m, Direct Line cost‑saving ambition uplifted to £225m (first £50m delivered in H2 2025; remaining ~£175m phased over the next three years), ~£50m of investment to unlock at least £50m p.a. of claims savings, and continued growth ambitions in Wealth and Retirement (I.e. c.£230bn AUM, ~£11bn net flows, Workplace AUM £153bn and a Mercer transfer ~£8bn).Aviva plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 58.51B | 40.86B | 32.92B | -26.79B | 32.99B |
| Gross Profit | 58.51B | 31.76B | 33.95B | 16.20B | 32.99B |
| EBITDA | 2.56B | 1.58B | 2.03B | -887.00M | 1.33B |
| Net Income | 1.03B | 683.00M | 1.08B | -1.07B | 416.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 395.30B | 353.88B | 328.84B | 302.26B | 343.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.29B | 23.48B | 17.27B | 22.50B | 12.48B |
| Total Debt | 8.30B | 6.89B | 7.37B | 8.57B | 8.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 385.21B | 345.26B | 319.24B | 289.86B | 323.99B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.69B | 8.30B | 8.79B | 12.09B | 19.20B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.96B | 8.27B | -3.08B | 3.85B | 3.19B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.87B | 8.45B | -2.73B | 3.95B | 3.30B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.14B | 162.00M | -350.00M | 11.13B | -6.58B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.73B | -2.49B | -1.82B | -5.47B | -3.91B |
Aviva plc Technical Analysis
Neutral
600.40
Price Trends
611.24
Negative
623.62
Negative
622.16
Negative
Market Momentum
-6.45
Positive
47.38
Neutral
10.48
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:AV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 600.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 602.21, below the 50-day MA of 611.24, and below the 200-day MA of 622.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:AV.
Aviva plc Risk Analysis
Aviva plc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aviva plc reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aviva plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | £26.07B | 9.78 | 26.87% | 1.56% | 37.94% | 291.37% | |
61 Neutral | £6.05B | 13.86 | 37.33% | 1.06% | -36.55% | ― | |
60 Neutral | £18.23B | 18.92 | 10.20% | 6.03% | -19.71% | -53.86% | |
52 Neutral | £6.45B | 22.80 | 9.49% | 7.09% | 9.86% | -134.41% | |
48 Neutral | £13.82B | 30.04 | 6.81% | 8.29% | -38.98% | -31.14% |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:AV
Aviva plc
600.40
99.84
19.95%
GB:LGEN
Legal & General
246.30
22.15
9.88%
GB:PRU
Prudential
1,038.00
217.11
26.45%
GB:STJ
St. James's Place
1,176.50
257.69
28.05%
GB:MNG
M&G Plc
272.00
86.33
46.49%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.