GATX (GATX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.85B
• Dividend Yield: 1.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 202.04K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 10.66%
• EPS Growth: 13.61%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,150
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.44
• Shares Outstanding: 35,500,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 180,995
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 202,038
• PEG Ratio: 1.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.49
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.59
• 1Y Price Target: $211.33
• Price Target Upside: 28.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.44B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $178.00 ▲(8.08% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/16/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/16/26

The score reflects solid underlying operating performance and constructive 2026 guidance (including scale benefits and shareholder returns), tempered by structurally weak free cash flow and leverage risk. Near-term technicals are a meaningful headwind given the pronounced downtrend and oversold momentum.

Positive Factors

Major scale expansion via Wells Fargo JV

Acquiring and managing a ~208k consolidated fleet materially increases remarketing inventory, recurring lease revenue and fee income. Scale creates cost leverage in maintenance and fleet management, strengthens competitive position versus smaller lessors, and supports multi-year revenue upside.

Very high fleet utilization and revenue trend

Consistently high utilization and strong renewal rates drive predictable, recurring rental cash flows and pricing power. This underpins durable top-line growth and margin stability, improving visibility into multi-quarter revenue and supporting sustainable returns on invested capital.

Diversification and outperformance in engine leasing

A sizeable, growing engine leasing franchise diversifies earnings away from cyclical rail car demand. Engine leasing offers global demand tailwinds and higher-return pockets, enhancing cash generation and reducing single-market exposure over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Historically high leverage

Sustained high leverage increases sensitivity to rising interest costs and reduces financial flexibility for capital allocation. Continued reliance on borrowing to finance fleet growth raises refinancing and covenant risk over several quarters, especially if cash conversion weakens or markets tighten.

Persistent negative free cash flow

Negative free cash flow reflects capital intensity of fleet ownership and limits the company's ability to self-fund growth, dividends, or buybacks without external financing. Over months this amplifies leverage exposure and reduces margin of safety during demand softness.

GAAP dilution and limited JV economic capture (NCI)

GAAP straight‑line lease accounting plus substantial noncontrolling interest will compress reported earnings despite economic scale. This structural reporting mismatch can obscure underlying cash returns and limit near-term EPS accretion visibility, affecting perceived profitability over the medium term.

GATX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GATX Corporation operates as railcar leasing company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Rail North America, Rail International, and Portfolio Management. It leases tank and freight railcars, and locomotives for petroleum, chemical, food/agriculture, and transportation industries. The company also offers services, including the interior cleaning of railcars, routine maintenance and repair of car body and safety appliances, regulatory compliance works, wheelset replacements, interior blast and lining operations, exterior blast and painting, and car stenciling. In addition, it leases aircraft spare engines, directly-owned aircraft spare engines, and five liquefied gas-carrying vessels, as well as manages portfolios of assets for third parties. The company owns a fleet of approximately 147,000 railcars; 539 four-axle and 29 six-axle locomotives; and 5 vessels. GATX Corporation was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

GATX primarily makes money by leasing railcars under multi-year contracts and generating recurring rental income from its owned fleet. Under its rail leasing model, the company invests capital to acquire or build railcars (often specialized types tailored to particular commodities), places those cars on lease with customers, and earns monthly or periodic lease payments for the duration of the contract. In addition to base lease rentals, GATX can generate revenue and cash flow from (1) renewal and re-lease activity as contracts expire, (2) sale proceeds and gains (or losses) when it disposes of railcars at the end of their economic life or when market values are attractive, and (3) maintenance, repair, and other servicing activities that support fleet utilization (to the extent provided under customer arrangements). Earnings are influenced by fleet utilization (how many cars are on lease), lease rate levels, the mix of railcar types in the fleet (some are higher-yielding specialized cars), customer demand tied to commodity and industrial activity, and the company’s cost of financing its fleet (interest rates and access to debt markets). GATX also earns contributions from its Rail International operations through similar leasing economics in European markets, and from its other investment activities to the extent those assets produce income or gains; specific partnership structures or terms not explicitly disclosed here are null.

GATX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (Score 78) shows steady revenue growth and improving profitability, but overall financial quality is held back by weak cash generation (Cash Flow Score 46) due to persistently negative free cash flow and balance-sheet leverage risk (Balance Sheet Score 58), with some 2025 debt/margin fields flagged as potentially unreliable.

Income Statement

Revenue shows a steady uptrend from 2020 to 2025 (annual growth mostly in the low-to-low-double digits, with 2025 showing very strong growth). Profitability is solid, with net margin improving versus earlier years and reaching ~19% in 2025, alongside rising net income. A key weakness is that several 2025 margin fields (gross/EBIT/EBITDA margins) appear missing/zeroed in the data, limiting margin-quality comparisons for the latest year.

Balance Sheet

Returns on equity are consistent and improving versus 2020–2022, landing around ~12% in 2024–2025, which indicates decent profitability on shareholder capital. However, leverage is a clear overhang historically: debt-to-equity is ~3.1–3.4x from 2021–2024, implying a balance sheet that relies heavily on borrowing. The 2025 entry shows total debt as 0 (and debt-to-equity as 0), which conflicts with the prior trend and may reflect missing/erroneous data—so leverage risk should not be assumed to have disappeared without corroboration.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently positive and generally growing over time, which supports earnings quality. The main issue is persistent negative free cash flow each year (including 2024 and 2025), meaning cash generated from operations has not been sufficient to cover investment needs; in 2023–2024, free cash flow was deeply negative relative to net income. While 2025 free cash flow improved meaningfully versus 2024 (less negative), it remains a drag and suggests ongoing capital intensity.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.74B	1.59B	1.41B	1.27B	1.26B
Gross Profit	845.50M	760.90M	647.30M	572.60M	539.20M
EBITDA	986.40M	1.02B	901.00M	762.40M	776.30M
Net Income	333.30M	284.20M	259.20M	155.90M	143.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.31B	12.30B	11.33B	10.07B	9.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.98B	401.60M	450.70M	452.20M	344.30M
Total Debt	12.81B	8.41B	7.63B	6.72B	6.19B
Total Liabilities	14.67B	9.86B	9.05B	8.04B	7.52B
Stockholders Equity	2.75B	2.44B	2.27B	2.03B	2.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-683.60M	-1.07B	-1.14B	-722.30M	-622.90M
Operating Cash Flow	648.10M	602.10M	520.40M	533.50M	507.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-117.80M	-1.42B	-1.22B	-1.07B	-916.60M
Financing Cash Flow	4.05B	770.50M	844.10M	504.40M	463.10M

GATX Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 164.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GATX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 164.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 177.98, below the 50-day MA of 181.46, and below the 200-day MA of 166.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.82 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.99 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GATX.

GATX Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MGRC	70 Outperform	$2.59B	12.96	13.21%	1.79%	4.77%	-35.44%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AL	63 Neutral	$7.24B	9.92	13.23%	1.37%	9.67%	96.43%
GATX	61 Neutral	$5.85B	18.22	12.47%	1.41%	10.66%	13.61%
R	61 Neutral	$7.56B	16.03	16.36%	1.75%	1.68%	9.91%
WSC	51 Neutral	$3.08B	-64.81	-5.35%	1.44%	-3.64%	867.62%
HRI	47 Neutral	$3.35B	4,644.29	0.06%	1.79%	19.40%	-120.47%

GATX Corporate Events

GATX Joint Venture Issues $1 Billion Senior Notes

On March 12, 2026, GABX Leasing LLC, a joint venture between GATX and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, issued $1 billion of senior unsecured notes in two tranches: $500 million of 4.625% notes due 2031 and $500 million of 5.300% notes due 2036, sold to qualified institutional buyers and non‑U.S. investors. The notes, guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by GATX, generated net proceeds of about $989.5 million that will be used to repay a portion of the joint venture’s outstanding term loan, reshaping its debt profile while providing investors with standard change‑of‑control protection, optional redemption features, and covenants that limit secured but not unsecured indebtedness.

The 2031 notes were priced at 99.860% of par and the 2036 notes at 99.799% of par, with semi‑annual interest payments beginning October 15, 2026. The structure leaves the notes effectively junior to any current or future secured debt at both the issuer and GATX level and structurally subordinated to obligations of their subsidiaries, while customary events of default could accelerate repayment, underscoring a balance between funding flexibility for GATX’s rail leasing platform and risk considerations for bondholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GATX) stock is a Buy with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GATX stock, see the GATX Stock Forecast page.

GATX Boosts Dividend and Launches New Buyback Program

In 2025, GATX reported strong financial performance, with fourth-quarter net income rising to $97.0 million and full-year net income increasing to $333.3 million, supported by high railcar fleet utilization, robust lease rate renewals, and over $1.3 billion in asset investments across its rail and engine leasing platforms. On February 18, 2026, the board raised the quarterly dividend by 8.2% to $0.66 per share and authorized a new $300 million share repurchase program, while the company completed its largest-ever deal on January 1, 2026 by acquiring approximately 101,000 railcars from Wells Fargo via a joint venture with Brookfield, moves that expand its rail footprint and signal confidence in sustained earnings growth and shareholder value creation.

GATX’s Rail North America and Rail International segments delivered solid results in 2025, with 99.0% utilization, higher renewal lease rates, strong remarketing income, and portfolio expansion in Europe and India that bolstered its competitive position despite soft macroeconomic conditions. Its Engine Leasing business also performed strongly, driven by global demand for aircraft spare engines and portfolio growth exceeding $1.0 billion in owned assets and $5.8 billion in RRPF joint venture assets, underpinning management’s 2026 earnings guidance of $9.50–$10.10 per diluted share and expectations of profit growth across all major segments.

The most recent analyst rating on (GATX) stock is a Buy with a $212.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GATX stock, see the GATX Stock Forecast page.

GATX and Brookfield Complete Major Rail Portfolio Acquisition

On January 1, 2026, GATX Corporation and Brookfield Infrastructure completed the acquisition of Wells Fargo’s rail operating lease portfolio through their joint venture, GABX, in a transaction valued at approximately $4.2 billion for about 101,000 railcars, with Brookfield separately acquiring Wells Fargo’s rail finance lease portfolio of roughly 22,000 railcars and 400 locomotives. To fund the deal, on December 31, 2025, the JV entered into a $3.0 billion unsecured term loan and a $250 million unsecured revolving credit facility led by Wells Fargo, fully drawing the term loan at closing, while GATX provided a primary guaranty of the JV’s obligations; GATX also secured management services agreements to run both the JV’s rail portfolio and Brookfield’s directly owned rail assets, amended the JV’s governance structure with Brookfield to include detailed board and approval rights, and obtained a call option structure designed to allow GATX to ultimately acquire full ownership of the JV, significantly expanding and diversifying its North American railcar platform and, according to the company, positioning it for earnings growth and enhanced shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GATX) stock is a Buy with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GATX stock, see the GATX Stock Forecast page.