Air Lease (AL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.10B
• Dividend Yield: 1.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.52M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 8.08%
• EPS Growth: 76.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 165
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.33
• Shares Outstanding: 111,765,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,663,503
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,515,632
• PEG Ratio: -0.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.96
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.86
• 1Y Price Target: $66.13
• Price Target Upside: 4.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 82 Outperform
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(10.22% Upside)

Air Lease's strong technical indicators and positive corporate events, including a lucrative merger agreement, are the most significant factors driving the score. While financial performance shows robust growth, high leverage and negative cash flow are concerns. The stock's undervaluation and positive earnings call further support its favorable outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The company's strong revenue growth, supported by new aircraft deliveries and gains on sales, indicates robust demand and effective market positioning.

Strong Lease Extensions

Full placement of the order book through 2026 and strong lease rates suggest sustained demand and revenue stability over the coming years.

Insurance Recoveries

Successful insurance recoveries enhance financial resilience, providing additional capital to support future growth and investment opportunities.

Negative Factors

High Debt Levels

Significant leverage can strain financial flexibility, necessitating careful debt management to maintain long-term financial health.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow indicates challenges in cash management, which could impact the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives.

Interest Expense Increase

Rising interest expenses increase financial burdens, potentially affecting profitability and limiting investment capacity in a high-interest environment.

Air Lease Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Air Lease Corporation (AL) is a leading global aircraft leasing company headquartered in Los Angeles, California. The company specializes in purchasing commercial jetliners and leasing them to airlines around the world. Air Lease operates within the aviation sector, providing a diverse portfolio of aircraft, including narrow-body and wide-body jets, to meet the varied needs of its airline customers. In addition to leasing services, AL also offers fleet management and advisory services to help airlines optimize their operations.

How the Company Makes Money

Air Lease generates revenue primarily through the leasing of aircraft to airline operators. The company purchases new aircraft from manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus and then leases these jets to airlines under long-term contracts. The lease payments, which can be structured as fixed monthly payments, provide a steady stream of income. Additionally, AL may earn revenue through fees associated with aircraft management services and advisory services. Significant partnerships with major aircraft manufacturers and a diverse customer base worldwide also contribute to its earnings, allowing the company to maintain a competitive edge in the leasing market.

Air Lease Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Air Lease shows strong revenue growth and profitability with impressive margins. However, high leverage and negative free cash flow pose potential risks. The company should focus on improving cash flow management and reducing debt to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Air Lease has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 4.3% increase in TTM, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 49.3% and 34.0% respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also impressive at 51.9% and 93.3%, indicating efficient operational management. However, the company should remain vigilant about maintaining these margins in a competitive industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.47, which suggests significant leverage. However, the return on equity is a solid 12.5%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 24.7%, reflecting a moderate level of financial stability. Continued focus on debt management is advisable to mitigate potential risks.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong, but the negative free cash flow and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.33 highlight challenges in cash management. The free cash flow growth rate of 23.5% is a positive sign, yet the company needs to address the negative free cash flow to ensure long-term sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.87B	2.73B	2.68B	2.32B	2.09B	2.02B
Gross Profit	1.42B	807.90M	961.29M	858.42M	743.43M	803.01M
EBITDA	2.68B	1.73B	1.88B	1.37B	1.47B	1.47B
Net Income	977.89M	427.70M	614.62M	-97.02M	436.63M	516.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.30B	32.28B	30.45B	28.40B	26.97B	25.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	454.80M	472.55M	460.87M	766.42M	1.09B	1.73B
Total Debt	20.32B	20.21B	19.18B	18.64B	17.02B	16.52B
Total Liabilities	25.07B	24.75B	23.29B	21.75B	19.96B	19.14B
Stockholders Equity	8.22B	7.53B	7.16B	6.65B	7.01B	6.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-3.03B	-2.88B	-2.78B	-2.26B	-1.86B	-1.59B
Operating Cash Flow	1.75B	1.68B	1.75B	1.38B	1.38B	1.09B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.60B	-3.04B	-2.78B	-3.40B	-3.09B	-2.53B
Financing Cash Flow	851.39M	1.37B	715.98M	1.69B	1.07B	2.86B

Air Lease Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 63.51
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.44, above the 50-day MA of 59.71, and above the 200-day MA of 52.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 69.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AL.

Air Lease Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AL	82 Outperform	$7.10B	7.71	12.59%	1.39%	8.08%	76.55%
AER	79 Outperform	21.74B	7.46	12.21%	0.86%	3.24%	4.46%
GATX	74 Outperform	6.30B	20.23	11.97%	1.36%	11.74%	33.85%
WLFC	66 Neutral	961.79M	8.39	17.97%	0.71%	30.08%	32.62%
FTAI	61 Neutral	16.91B	40.89	269.35%	0.73%	55.05%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Air Lease Corporate Events

Air Lease Announces $7.4 Billion Merger Agreement

On September 1, 2025, Air Lease Corporation entered into a merger agreement with Gladiatora Designated Activity Company, a new holding company owned by Sumitomo Corporation, SMBC Aviation Capital, Apollo, and Brookfield. This merger, valued at approximately $7.4 billion, will see Air Lease’s stockholders receive $65.00 per share in cash. The transaction aims to provide an immediate premium and cash value certainty to Air Lease’s stockholders, with the merger expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

Air Lease Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results

On August 4, 2025, Air Lease Corporation held a conference call to discuss its financial results for the second quarter of 2025. The company reported revenues of $732 million and $3.33 in diluted earnings per share, driven by new aircraft deliveries and gains on sales. The company achieved record levels in fleet net book value and book value per common share. Air Lease also highlighted its success in recovering 104% of its initial Russia fleet write-off through insurance settlements. The company canceled its order for seven A350F aircraft, freeing up over $1 billion in capital for other investments. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, Air Lease remains optimistic about the strong demand for commercial aircraft and plans to continue its aircraft sales to maximize capital.

Air Lease Secures $112.4 Million in Insurance Settlement

Air Lease Corporation has reached settlement agreements with certain insurers to recover losses related to aircraft detained in Russia, resulting in $112.4 million in cash insurance proceeds, which will be recorded in the second quarter of 2025. This settlement is part of a larger recovery effort, with the company having recovered $763.5 million of its initial $791.0 million write-off, and it plans to settle with the final insurer in the third quarter of 2025, impacting its financial recovery and legal proceedings.