Air Lease (AL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.43B
• Dividend Yield: 1.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 673.75K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 2.81%
• EPS Growth: 15.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 165
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 91
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.26
• Shares Outstanding: 111,759,130
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 590,650
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 673,749
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.83
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -14.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.75
• 1Y Price Target: $62.20
• Price Target Upside: 8.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 82 Outperform
• Price Target: $68.00 ▲(18.22%Upside)

Air Lease's strong financial performance, positive technical indicators, and favorable earnings call outcomes drive a solid score. While the valuation is reasonable, profitability and cash flow improvements could enhance the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Capital Allocation

The company is now in a position to consider capital return options, particularly share buybacks, which are more attractive than dividends.

Financial Performance

Analyst increases the price target for Air Lease to $67, reflecting confidence in future performance.

Negative Factors

Market Dynamics

Analyst maintains an Underperform rating due to better market positioning of other companies and uncertainty in OEM deliveries.

Market Position

In spite of Citi’s improved optimism on Air Lease, the long-term risk/reward opportunity in the shares still does not look as good relative to its peers.

Air Lease Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of commercial jet aircraft to airlines worldwide. It also sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to third parties, including other leasing companies, financial services companies, airlines, and other investors. In addition, the company provides fleet management services to investors and owners of aircraft portfolios. As of December 31, 2021, it owned a fleet of 382 aircraft, including 278 narrowbody aircraft and 104 widebody aircraft. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Air Lease Corporation makes money by leasing aircraft to airlines under long-term lease agreements. The company acquires new and used commercial aircraft and leases them to airline customers, generating steady rental income over the lease term. Additionally, it may sell older aircraft from its portfolio, contributing to revenue. Key revenue streams include lease rentals, aircraft sales, and related services. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by factors such as the demand for air travel, interest rates, aircraft values, and the creditworthiness of its airline customers. Successful partnerships with major aircraft manufacturers and a strong global customer base are also crucial to its financial performance.

Air Lease Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Air Lease shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with high gross profit and EBIT margins. While the absence of debt enhances financial stability, challenges remain with reduced net profit margin and negative free cash flow, indicating areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Air Lease has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a notable increase from $2.69 billion in 2023 to $2.73 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin appears strong at 100% due to the nature of its business model. However, the net profit margin decreased from 22.9% in 2023 to 13.6% in 2024, indicating reduced profitability. Despite this, EBIT margin improved significantly, showcasing operational efficiency. The data suggests strong operational performance but highlights a decrease in net income impact on profit margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a robust equity position with stockholders' equity growing to $7.53 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0, indicating no debt, which is a positive sign of financial strength. The equity ratio has improved, suggesting a stronger asset base relative to liabilities. Return on equity has decreased due to lower net income, but overall, the company's financial leverage is well-managed.

Cash Flow

There is a negative free cash flow trend, with a free cash flow of -$2.5 billion in 2024, but it's an improvement from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 4.51, highlighting efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting ongoing capital expenditures exceeding cash generated.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.73B	2.68B	2.32B	2.09B	2.02B
Gross Profit	807.90M	961.29M	858.42M	743.43M	803.01M
EBITDA	1.73B	1.88B	1.37B	1.47B	1.47B
Net Income	427.70M	614.62M	-97.02M	436.63M	516.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.28B	30.45B	28.40B	26.97B	25.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	472.55M	460.87M	766.42M	1.09B	1.73B
Total Debt	20.21B	19.18B	18.64B	17.02B	16.52B
Total Liabilities	24.75B	23.29B	21.75B	19.96B	19.14B
Stockholders Equity	7.53B	7.16B	6.65B	7.01B	6.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.50B	-2.78B	-2.26B	-1.86B	-1.59B
Operating Cash Flow	1.68B	1.75B	1.38B	1.38B	1.09B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.04B	-2.78B	-3.40B	-3.09B	-2.53B
Financing Cash Flow	1.37B	715.98M	1.69B	1.07B	2.86B

Air Lease Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 57.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 57.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.19, above the 50-day MA of 57.31, and above the 200-day MA of 49.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AL.

Air Lease Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AL	82 Outperform	$6.43B	10.07	9.22%	1.51%	2.81%	15.38%
AER	76 Outperform	$20.23B	9.81	12.52%	0.95%	4.77%	-25.67%
GATX	76 Outperform	$5.53B	19.76	11.64%	1.58%	12.07%	11.93%
WLFC	69 Neutral	$942.26M	9.67	18.32%	0.73%	32.55%	70.32%
Sector *	67 Neutral	£2.87B	10.55	4.69%	3.49%	2.40%	-24.48%
FTAI	55 Neutral	$11.81B	566.63	69.57%	1.04%	57.80%	-89.78%

Air Lease Corporate Events

Air Lease Secures $112.4 Million in Insurance Settlement

Air Lease Corporation has reached settlement agreements with certain insurers to recover losses related to aircraft detained in Russia, resulting in $112.4 million in cash insurance proceeds, which will be recorded in the second quarter of 2025. This settlement is part of a larger recovery effort, with the company having recovered $763.5 million of its initial $791.0 million write-off, and it plans to settle with the final insurer in the third quarter of 2025, impacting its financial recovery and legal proceedings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AL) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Lease stock, see the AL Stock Forecast page.

Air Lease Elects Board and Ratifies Auditor

On May 2, 2025, Air Lease Corporation held its annual stockholders’ meeting, where nine directors were elected to the board, KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025, and the 2024 executive compensation was approved on an advisory basis. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, impacting its leadership structure and financial oversight, which are crucial for stakeholders and the company’s strategic direction.

Air Lease Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 5, 2025, Air Lease held a conference call to discuss its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting revenues of $738 million and $3.26 in diluted earnings per share. The company achieved record levels in total revenue, fleet net book value, and book value per common share, benefiting from fleet expansion and insurance settlements. Despite higher interest expenses and retirement-related costs, Air Lease’s sales pipeline remains robust, with expectations of $1.5 billion in aircraft sales for 2025. The company faces delivery delays from Airbus but continues to see strong demand for aircraft globally, particularly outside North America, where 87% of its business is conducted. Global passenger air traffic growth and favorable economic conditions, like declining fuel prices and a weakening dollar, support the company’s positive outlook.