Air Lease (AL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.13B
• Dividend Yield: 1.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.11M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: 9.67%
• EPS Growth: 96.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 165
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.21
• Shares Outstanding: 111,765,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,957,495
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,110,909
• PEG Ratio: -0.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.96
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.95
• 1Y Price Target: $66.00
• Price Target Upside: 3.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.98B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $71.00 ▲(11.25% Upside)

Air Lease's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are significant strengths, supported by robust revenue growth and profitability. The technical analysis indicates a favorable trend, and the valuation suggests the stock is undervalued. However, financial risks from high leverage and negative cash flow, along with challenges noted in the earnings call, slightly temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Strong Revenue Growth

Sustained revenue growth indicates robust demand for leasing services and effective business expansion, supporting long-term profitability.

Robust Order Book

A fully placed order book ensures predictable future revenue streams and reflects strong market demand, enhancing business stability.

Strategic Lease Agreements

Securing long-term lease agreements with new airlines diversifies revenue sources and strengthens market position, supporting growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to interest rate hikes, impacting long-term financial health.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow indicates ongoing capital expenditure needs, potentially straining liquidity and limiting growth opportunities.

Interest Expense Increase

Rising interest expenses can erode profitability and increase financial burden, affecting long-term cost management and earnings.

Air Lease Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Air Lease Corporation (AL) is a leading global aircraft leasing company headquartered in Los Angeles, California. The company specializes in purchasing commercial jetliners and leasing them to airlines around the world. Air Lease operates within the aviation sector, providing a diverse portfolio of aircraft, including narrow-body and wide-body jets, to meet the varied needs of its airline customers. In addition to leasing services, AL also offers fleet management and advisory services to help airlines optimize their operations.

How the Company Makes Money

Air Lease generates revenue primarily through the leasing of aircraft to airline operators. The company purchases new aircraft from manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus and then leases these jets to airlines under long-term contracts. The lease payments, which can be structured as fixed monthly payments, provide a steady stream of income. Additionally, AL may earn revenue through fees associated with aircraft management services and advisory services. Significant partnerships with major aircraft manufacturers and a diverse customer base worldwide also contribute to its earnings, allowing the company to maintain a competitive edge in the leasing market.

Air Lease Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Air Lease demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, with a solid income statement. However, high leverage and negative free cash flow pose financial risks, necessitating improved debt management and cash flow stabilization.

Income Statement

Air Lease has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 22.6% compared to the previous year. The company maintains robust profitability metrics, with a TTM net profit margin of 34.7% and an EBIT margin of 46.4%. However, the gross profit margin has slightly decreased over the years, indicating potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, which is a common trait in the leasing industry but poses a risk if interest rates rise. The return on equity has improved to 12.6% in the TTM, reflecting better profitability. The equity ratio remains stable, indicating a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Air Lease's cash flow statement reveals challenges with free cash flow, which remains negative and has declined further in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting good cash generation from operations, but the negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights ongoing capital expenditure needs.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.91B	2.73B	2.68B	2.32B	2.09B	2.02B
Gross Profit	1.07B	807.90M	961.29M	858.42M	743.43M	803.01M
EBITDA	2.70B	1.73B	1.88B	880.44M	1.47B	1.47B
Net Income	1.02B	427.70M	614.62M	-97.02M	436.63M	516.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.39B	32.28B	30.45B	28.40B	26.97B	25.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	452.21M	472.55M	460.87M	766.42M	1.09B	1.73B
Total Debt	20.19B	20.21B	19.18B	18.64B	17.02B	16.52B
Total Liabilities	25.05B	24.75B	23.29B	21.75B	19.96B	19.14B
Stockholders Equity	8.34B	7.53B	7.16B	6.65B	7.01B	6.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.82B	-2.88B	-2.78B	-2.26B	-1.86B	-1.59B
Operating Cash Flow	1.75B	1.68B	1.75B	1.38B	1.38B	1.09B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.76B	-3.04B	-2.78B	-3.40B	-3.09B	-2.53B
Financing Cash Flow	4.50M	1.37B	715.98M	1.69B	1.07B	2.86B

Air Lease Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 63.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.67, above the 50-day MA of 63.57, and above the 200-day MA of 54.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AL.

Air Lease Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AL	73 Outperform	$7.13B	7.40	12.74%	1.38%	9.67%	96.43%
AER	73 Outperform	$23.47B	6.15	21.71%	0.81%	2.90%	67.73%
GATX	68 Neutral	$5.54B	18.13	11.93%	1.54%	10.66%	13.61%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
WLFC	62 Neutral	$820.29M	7.20	18.91%	0.84%	27.90%	19.25%
FTAI	58 Neutral	$16.64B	37.10	263.05%	0.67%	50.37%	―

Air Lease Corporate Events

Air Lease Corporation Announces Special Meeting to Vote on Merger Proposal

On November 4, 2025, Air Lease Corporation announced a special meeting for its stockholders to be held on December 18, 2025, to vote on a proposed merger agreement. The agreement, dated September 1, 2025, involves Air Lease being acquired by Sumisho Air Lease Corporation Designated Activity Company, a new holding company jointly owned by Sumitomo Corporation, SMBC Aviation Capital Limited, and affiliates of Apollo Capital Management and Brookfield Asset Management. If approved, stockholders will receive $65.00 per share in cash for their Class A Common Stock. The Board of Directors of Air Lease has unanimously recommended the merger, considering it fair and in the best interests of the company and its stockholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AL) stock is a Hold with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Lease stock, see the AL Stock Forecast page.

Air Lease Corporation Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings

Air Lease Corporation is a prominent aircraft leasing company engaged in purchasing and leasing modern commercial jet aircraft to airlines worldwide, with a focus on generating attractive returns on equity. In its latest earnings report for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, Air Lease Corporation reported significant financial growth, driven by increased lease rentals and successful aircraft sales. The company achieved a net income of $146.5 million for the quarter, a substantial increase from the previous year, supported by a rise in total revenues to $725.4 million. Key financial highlights include a notable recovery of $736.4 million from the Russian fleet write-off and a strong cash flow from operating activities amounting to $1.32 billion. Looking forward, Air Lease Corporation remains focused on expanding its fleet with 228 new aircraft on order, reflecting a commitment to growth and modernization in the aviation leasing sector.

Air Lease Announces $7.4 Billion Merger Agreement

On September 1, 2025, Air Lease Corporation entered into a merger agreement with Gladiatora Designated Activity Company, a new holding company owned by Sumitomo Corporation, SMBC Aviation Capital, Apollo, and Brookfield. This merger, valued at approximately $7.4 billion, will see Air Lease’s stockholders receive $65.00 per share in cash. The transaction aims to provide an immediate premium and cash value certainty to Air Lease’s stockholders, with the merger expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AL) stock is a Buy with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Lease stock, see the AL Stock Forecast page.

Air Lease Corp’s Earnings Call Highlights Record Revenue

Air Lease Corporation’s recent earnings call showcased a strong performance, marked by record revenue and significant insurance recoveries. Despite facing some challenges, such as lower aircraft sales volume and increased interest expenses, the overall sentiment was positive. The company emphasized improved financial flexibility and a favorable global airline profitability landscape.

Air Lease Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results

On August 4, 2025, Air Lease Corporation held a conference call to discuss its financial results for the second quarter of 2025. The company reported revenues of $732 million and $3.33 in diluted earnings per share, driven by new aircraft deliveries and gains on sales. The company achieved record levels in fleet net book value and book value per common share. Air Lease also highlighted its success in recovering 104% of its initial Russia fleet write-off through insurance settlements. The company canceled its order for seven A350F aircraft, freeing up over $1 billion in capital for other investments. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, Air Lease remains optimistic about the strong demand for commercial aircraft and plans to continue its aircraft sales to maximize capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (AL) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Air Lease stock, see the AL Stock Forecast page.

Air Lease Corporation Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

Air Lease Corporation is a leading global aircraft leasing company based in Los Angeles, California, specializing in purchasing and leasing new commercial aircraft to airline customers worldwide. In its second quarter of 2025, Air Lease reported a robust financial performance, highlighted by significant new aircraft deliveries, strong gains from sales, and substantial insurance recoveries related to its Russian fleet. The company achieved a notable increase in revenue, reaching $731.7 million for the quarter, a 9.7% rise from the previous year, and net income attributable to common stockholders soared to $374.1 million, marking a 313.8% increase. This surge was largely driven by a $344 million net benefit from insurance settlements and an 11% increase in rental revenue from flight equipment. Air Lease also expanded its fleet, ending the quarter with 495 owned aircraft, and maintained a strong sales pipeline valued at $1.4 billion. Looking ahead, Air Lease remains optimistic about its growth prospects, with a substantial portion of its orderbook placed on long-term leases through 2031, and anticipates continued robust demand for aircraft leasing and sales.