Air Lease (AL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.17B
• Dividend Yield: 1.37%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 9.67%
• EPS Growth: 96.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 165
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.21
• Shares Outstanding: 111,765,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,963,815
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,066,724
• PEG Ratio: -0.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.96
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.74
• 1Y Price Target: $66.50
• Price Target Upside: 3.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.98B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $71.00 ▲(10.56% Upside)

Air Lease's strong valuation and positive technical indicators are the primary drivers of its score. While financial performance shows growth, high leverage and negative cash flow are concerns. The approved acquisition is a positive development, but legal challenges could impact future stability.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained revenue growth indicates robust demand for Air Lease's offerings, enhancing its market position and financial stability.

Fleet Modernization

Modernizing the fleet with fuel-efficient aircraft strengthens Air Lease's competitive edge and appeal to environmentally conscious airlines.

Strategic Partnerships

Partnerships with leading manufacturers ensure access to the latest aircraft models, supporting Air Lease's competitive advantage and fleet quality.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can increase financial risk, especially if interest rates rise, potentially impacting long-term financial health.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Persistent negative free cash flow suggests ongoing capital expenditure needs, which may strain financial resources and limit growth opportunities.

Legal Challenges

Legal challenges related to the merger could delay strategic initiatives and create uncertainty, impacting future business operations.

Air Lease Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of commercial jet aircraft to airlines worldwide. It also sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to third parties, including other leasing companies, financial services companies, airlines, and other investors. In addition, the company provides fleet management services to investors and owners of aircraft portfolios. As of December 31, 2021, it owned a fleet of 382 aircraft, including 278 narrowbody aircraft and 104 widebody aircraft. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Air Lease generates revenue primarily through the leasing of aircraft to airlines. The company purchases new and used aircraft from manufacturers and then leases them to airlines at competitive rates, which generates lease rental income. Key revenue streams include operating leases, where airlines pay a fixed monthly rental fee for the duration of the lease, and sales-type leases, which may include a purchase option for the airline at the end of the lease term. Additionally, Air Lease benefits from the sale of aircraft after the lease term ends, capitalizing on the residual value of its fleet. The company has established significant partnerships with major aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus, allowing it to maintain a modern and efficient fleet, which enhances its competitive edge and profitability. Overall, the combination of leasing income, asset sales, and strategic partnerships contributes significantly to Air Lease's financial performance.

Air Lease Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Air Lease demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, with a solid income statement. However, high leverage and negative free cash flow pose financial risks, necessitating improved debt management and cash flow stabilization.

Income Statement

Air Lease has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 22.6% compared to the previous year. The company maintains robust profitability metrics, with a TTM net profit margin of 34.7% and an EBIT margin of 46.4%. However, the gross profit margin has slightly decreased over the years, indicating potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, which is a common trait in the leasing industry but poses a risk if interest rates rise. The return on equity has improved to 12.6% in the TTM, reflecting better profitability. The equity ratio remains stable, indicating a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Air Lease's cash flow statement reveals challenges with free cash flow, which remains negative and has declined further in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting good cash generation from operations, but the negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights ongoing capital expenditure needs.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.91B	2.73B	2.68B	2.32B	2.09B	2.02B
Gross Profit	1.07B	807.90M	961.29M	858.42M	743.43M	803.01M
EBITDA	2.76B	1.73B	1.88B	880.44M	1.47B	1.47B
Net Income	1.02B	427.70M	614.62M	-97.02M	436.63M	516.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.39B	32.28B	30.45B	28.40B	26.97B	25.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	452.21M	472.55M	460.87M	766.42M	1.09B	1.73B
Total Debt	20.19B	20.21B	19.18B	18.64B	17.02B	16.52B
Total Liabilities	25.05B	24.75B	23.29B	21.75B	19.96B	19.14B
Stockholders Equity	8.34B	7.53B	7.16B	6.65B	7.01B	6.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.82B	-2.88B	-2.78B	-2.26B	-1.86B	-1.59B
Operating Cash Flow	1.75B	1.68B	1.75B	1.38B	1.38B	1.09B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.76B	-3.04B	-2.78B	-3.40B	-3.09B	-2.53B
Financing Cash Flow	4.50M	1.37B	715.98M	1.69B	1.07B	2.86B

Air Lease Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 64.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 64.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.91, above the 50-day MA of 63.65, and above the 200-day MA of 57.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AL.

Air Lease Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AER	77 Outperform	$25.56B	6.70	21.71%	0.75%	2.90%	67.73%
GATX	76 Outperform	$6.17B	20.19	11.93%	1.41%	10.66%	13.61%
AL	73 Outperform	$7.17B	7.44	12.74%	1.37%	9.67%	96.43%
WLFC	71 Outperform	$915.82M	8.04	18.91%	0.86%	27.90%	19.25%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
FTAI	58 Neutral	$17.28B	38.53	263.05%	0.73%	50.37%	―

Air Lease Corporate Events

Air Lease Shareholders Approve Acquisition by Sumisho Group

At a special meeting of stockholders held on December 18, 2025, Air Lease Corporation’s Class A shareholders approved a definitive merger agreement under which the U.S.-listed lessor will be acquired by Dublin-based holding company Sumisho Air Lease Corporation DAC, whose owners will include Sumitomo Corporation, SMBC Aviation Capital, and investment vehicles affiliated with Apollo-managed funds and Brookfield. Approximately 80.7% of outstanding Class A shares as of the November 3, 2025 record date backed the deal, clearing a key milestone toward closing a cash transaction that will see Air Lease investors receive $65 per share and the company rebranded as Sumisho Air Lease Corporation, with the vote also endorsing, on an advisory basis, merger-related executive compensation and removing the need to adjourn the meeting to seek additional proxies.

Air Lease Faces Legal Challenges Over Merger

On September 1, 2025, Air Lease Corporation entered into a merger agreement with Sumisho Air Lease Corporation, a new holding company established by Sumitomo Corporation and other investors. This merger would result in Air Lease becoming an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Sumisho. However, the merger has faced legal challenges, with lawsuits filed by stockholders in Delaware and New York, alleging misleading disclosures in the proxy statement related to the merger. To address these concerns and avoid potential delays, Air Lease has voluntarily supplemented its disclosures, although it denies any wrongdoing.

Air Lease Merger Awaits Stockholder Approval

On September 1, 2025, Air Lease Corporation entered into a Merger Agreement with Sumisho Air Lease Corporation, which will result in Air Lease becoming an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the parent company. The merger’s completion is contingent upon the expiration of the HSR Waiting Period, which ended on November 7, 2025, and requires approval from the majority of Air Lease’s Class A common stockholders, along with other customary conditions.