Air Lease (AL)
NYSE:AL
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Air Lease
(NYSE:AL)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
▲(9.23% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is driven by mixed fundamentals: strong reported profitability and steady operating cash generation are offset by structurally negative free cash flow, leverage risk, and 2025 reporting inconsistencies. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, and the pending $65 cash-out merger/delisting is a significant positive event. Technicals are moderately positive with an uptrend and stable momentum.
Positive Factors
Stable operating cash flow & profitability recovery
Consistently positive operating cash flow over multiple years signals durable earnings quality for a leasing operator. Strong OCF supports lease servicing, routine maintenance and remarketing efforts, and underpins the company’s ability to fund operations even while growth investments are financed externally.
Negative Factors
Persistently negative free cash flow
Deep, recurring negative free cash flow indicates fleet acquisition and capex materially exceed internally generated cash. Over time this necessitates ongoing external financing or asset sales, increasing refinancing and liquidity risk and constraining the firm’s ability to self-fund growth or reduce leverage without raising outside capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable operating cash flow & profitability recovery
Consistently positive operating cash flow over multiple years signals durable earnings quality for a leasing operator. Strong OCF supports lease servicing, routine maintenance and remarketing efforts, and underpins the company’s ability to fund operations even while growth investments are financed externally.
Read all positive factors
Air Lease (AL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.28B
Dividend Yield1.37%
Average Volume (3M)2.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.9
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth9.67%
EPS Growth96.43%
CountryUS
Employees165
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.51
Shares Outstanding112,035,410
10 Day Avg. Volume2,077,544
30 Day Avg. Volume2,548,492
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)2.38
P/FCF Ratio-4.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit22.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$65.00Price Target Upside0.00%
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)5.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.12B
Air Lease Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of commercial jet aircraft to airlines worldwide. It also sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to third parties, including other leasing companies...
How the Company Makes Money
Air Lease primarily makes money by leasing aircraft to airlines and collecting contractual lease payments. Its core revenue stream is operating lease rental revenue generated from long-term lease contracts (generally structured with fixed monthly ...
Air Lease Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call was generally positive, with significant achievements such as record revenue, successful insurance recoveries, and strong lease extensions. However, challenges like lower-than-expected aircraft sales volumes and increased interest expenses were noted.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Earnings
Air Lease generated revenues of $732 million and $3.33 in diluted earnings per share, benefiting from new aircraft deliveries and healthy gain on sales.
Negative Updates
Aircraft Sales Volume Below Expectations
Sales proceeds for the quarter were $126 million, down from $530 million in the prior period, due to the timing of anticipated closings falling outside the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Earnings
Air Lease generated revenues of $732 million and $3.33 in diluted earnings per share, benefiting from new aircraft deliveries and healthy gain on sales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, Air Lease Corporation reported revenues of $732 million and achieved $3.33 in diluted earnings per share. The company's results were bolstered by new aircraft deliveries, a significant gain on sales, an increasing portfolio yield, end of lease revenue, and notable Russia fleet insurance proceeds totaling $344 million, with an additional $60 million expected in the third quarter. Fleet net book value and book value per common share reached record levels, and fleet utilization remained at 100%. The company purchased 12 new aircraft worth approximately $890 million and sold 4 aircraft for $126 million. Air Lease's order book is fully placed through 2026, and lease extension activity is high, with strong rates. The sales pipeline is valued at $1.4 billion, and the company anticipates $1.5 billion in total aircraft sales for 2025. Despite a cancellation of the A350 freighter order, the company remains focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and is exploring opportunities to return capital to shareholders, supported by a robust liquidity position of $7.9 billion.Air Lease Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.02B | 2.73B | 2.68B | 2.32B | 2.09B |
| Gross Profit | 1.79B | 807.90M | 961.29M | 858.42M | 743.43M |
| EBITDA | 2.75B | 1.73B | 1.88B | 880.44M | 1.47B |
| Net Income | 1.09B | 427.70M | 614.62M | -97.02M | 436.63M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 32.88B | 32.28B | 30.45B | 28.40B | 26.97B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 466.41M | 472.55M | 460.87M | 766.42M | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 19.73B | 20.21B | 19.18B | 18.64B | 17.02B |
| Total Liabilities | 24.41B | 24.75B | 23.29B | 21.75B | 19.96B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.47B | 7.53B | 7.16B | 6.65B | 7.01B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.66B | -2.88B | -2.78B | -2.26B | -1.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.73B | 1.68B | 1.75B | 1.38B | 1.38B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.32B | -3.04B | -2.78B | -3.40B | -3.09B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -419.72M | 1.37B | 715.98M | 1.69B | 1.07B |
Air Lease Technical Analysis
Positive
65.00
Price Trends
64.60
Positive
64.19
Positive
62.20
Positive
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
67.70
Neutral
97.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.74, above the 50-day MA of 64.60, and above the 200-day MA of 62.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AL.
Air Lease Risk Analysis
Air Lease disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Air Lease reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Air Lease Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $7.28B | 9.92 | 13.23% | 1.37% | 9.67% | 96.43% | |
68 Neutral | $24.24B | 6.60 | 20.95% | 0.74% | 2.90% | 67.73% | |
64 Neutral | $1.36B | 8.05 | 16.94% | 0.82% | 27.90% | 19.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $6.84B | 18.22 | 12.47% | 1.41% | 10.66% | 13.61% | |
60 Neutral | $26.17B | 40.29 | 256.98% | 0.73% | 50.37% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
AL
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Air Lease Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Air Lease Gains Final Approval for Sumisho Merger
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Air Lease announced it had obtained the final regulatory approval required to close its pending merger with a subsidiary of Dublin-based Sumisho Air Lease Corporation DAC, whose owners will include Sumitomo Corporation, SMBC Avi...
Executive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Air Lease Accelerates Executive Compensation Ahead of Merger
Neutral
Jan 6, 2026
On September 1, 2025, Air Lease Corporation entered into a merger agreement under which Takeoff Merger Sub Inc., an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Sumisho Air Lease Corporation Designated Activity Company, will merge with Air Lease, leaving A...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.