Air Lease (AL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.34B
• Dividend Yield: 1.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.04M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 2.81%
• EPS Growth: 15.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 165
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 93
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.26
• Shares Outstanding: 111,759,130
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 817,594
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,036,297
• PEG Ratio: 0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $57.60
• Price Target Upside: 0.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $61.00 ▲(6.91%Upside)

Air Lease demonstrates a strong financial position with robust revenue growth, operational efficiency, and a solid balance sheet devoid of debt. The stock's valuation is attractive, and recent positive earnings guidance further supports a favorable outlook. However, the challenges in profitability and cash flow management, along with potential short-term technical corrections due to overbought conditions, slightly temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Capital Allocation

Citi upgrades Air Lease from Neutral to Buy, boosting investor confidence in the company's strategic direction.

Earnings Performance

EPS exceeds expectations, driven by strong aircraft sales and recovery from Russian settlements, indicating robust financial health.

Insurance Settlements

Air Lease has received US$559M in insurance settlements, creating an opportunity to repurchase undervalued shares.

Negative Factors

Cost Pressures

Potential pressure on near-term funding costs arises from an increase in the average cost of funds.

Market Positioning

Despite Citi's optimism, Air Lease's long-term risk/reward profile appears less favorable compared to peers.

Operational Challenges

80% of Air Lease's deliveries are Boeing aircraft, facing delays due to a strike impacting production levels.

Air Lease Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of commercial jet aircraft to airlines worldwide. It also sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to third parties, including other leasing companies, financial services companies, airlines, and other investors. In addition, the company provides fleet management services to investors and owners of aircraft portfolios. As of December 31, 2021, it owned a fleet of 382 aircraft, including 278 narrowbody aircraft and 104 widebody aircraft. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Air Lease Corporation makes money by leasing aircraft to airlines under long-term lease agreements. The company acquires new and used commercial aircraft and leases them to airline customers, generating steady rental income over the lease term. Additionally, it may sell older aircraft from its portfolio, contributing to revenue. Key revenue streams include lease rentals, aircraft sales, and related services. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by factors such as the demand for air travel, interest rates, aircraft values, and the creditworthiness of its airline customers. Successful partnerships with major aircraft manufacturers and a strong global customer base are also crucial to its financial performance.

Air Lease Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Air Lease shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, indicated by high gross profit and EBIT margins. The absence of debt enhances financial stability. However, the decline in net profit margin and negative free cash flow highlight challenges in profitability and cash management. Overall, the company's financial position is robust, but there is room for improvement in profitability and cash flow management.

Income Statement

Air Lease has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a notable increase from $2.69 billion in 2023 to $2.73 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin appears strong at 100% due to the nature of its business model. However, the net profit margin decreased from 22.9% in 2023 to 13.6% in 2024, indicating reduced profitability. Despite this, EBIT margin improved significantly, showcasing operational efficiency. The data suggests strong operational performance but highlights a decrease in net income impact on profit margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a robust equity position with stockholders' equity growing to $7.53 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0, indicating no debt, which is a positive sign of financial strength. The equity ratio has improved, suggesting a stronger asset base relative to liabilities. Return on equity has decreased due to lower net income, but overall, the company's financial leverage is well-managed.

Cash Flow

There is a negative free cash flow trend, with a free cash flow of -$2.5 billion in 2024, but it's an improvement from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 4.51, highlighting efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting ongoing capital expenditures exceeding cash generated.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.75B	2.73B	2.68B	2.32B	2.09B	2.02B
	Gross Profit
1.68B	807.90M	961.29M	858.42M	743.43M	803.01M
	EBIT
1.47B	588.08M	1.43B	685.97M	591.64M	689.70M
	EBITDA
1.44B	1.73B	1.88B	1.37B	1.47B	1.47B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
684.59M	427.70M	614.62M	-97.02M	436.63M	516.26M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
554.37M	472.55M	460.87M	766.42M	1.09B	1.73B
	Total Assets
30.91B	32.28B	30.45B	28.40B	26.97B	25.22B
	Total Debt
19.48B	20.21B	19.18B	18.64B	17.02B	16.52B
	Net Debt
18.93B	19.74B	18.72B	17.87B	15.94B	14.78B
	Total Liabilities
23.68B	24.75B	23.29B	21.75B	19.96B	19.14B
	Stockholders Equity
7.23B	7.53B	7.16B	6.65B	7.01B	6.07B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-462.42M	-2.50B	-2.78B	-2.26B	-1.86B	-1.59B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.69B	1.68B	1.75B	1.38B	1.38B	1.09B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.51B	-3.04B	-2.78B	-3.40B	-3.09B	-2.53B
	Financing Cash Flow
718.83M	1.37B	715.98M	1.69B	1.07B	2.86B

Air Lease Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 57.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.69, above the 50-day MA of 49.92, and above the 200-day MA of 46.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AL.

Air Lease Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AL	81 Outperform	$6.34B	9.99	9.22%	1.51%	2.81%	15.38%
SKYW	76 Outperform	$4.19B	11.52	15.66%	―	20.53%	217.24%
TRN	73 Outperform	$2.09B	15.77	14.14%	4.54%	-9.40%	8.41%
GATX	73 Outperform	$5.54B	19.69	11.64%	1.51%	12.07%	11.93%
ALK	68 Neutral	$6.20B	18.42	8.90%	―	20.82%	47.79%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$4.49B	12.28	5.32%	248.53%	4.08%	-12.00%
JBLU	48 Neutral	$1.78B	―	-11.30%	―	-3.02%	66.90%

Air Lease Corporate Events

Air Lease Elects Board and Ratifies Auditor

On May 2, 2025, Air Lease Corporation held its annual stockholders’ meeting, where nine directors were elected to the board, KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025, and the 2024 executive compensation was approved on an advisory basis. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, impacting its leadership structure and financial oversight, which are crucial for stakeholders and the company’s strategic direction.

Air Lease Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 5, 2025, Air Lease held a conference call to discuss its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting revenues of $738 million and $3.26 in diluted earnings per share. The company achieved record levels in total revenue, fleet net book value, and book value per common share, benefiting from fleet expansion and insurance settlements. Despite higher interest expenses and retirement-related costs, Air Lease’s sales pipeline remains robust, with expectations of $1.5 billion in aircraft sales for 2025. The company faces delivery delays from Airbus but continues to see strong demand for aircraft globally, particularly outside North America, where 87% of its business is conducted. Global passenger air traffic growth and favorable economic conditions, like declining fuel prices and a weakening dollar, support the company’s positive outlook.

Air Lease Announces Retirement of Executive Chairman

On March 13, 2025, Air Lease Corporation announced that its Executive Chairman, Steven Udvar-Házy, will retire on May 2, 2025, following the company’s annual meeting. Mr. Udvar-Házy, who founded the company in 2010, will transition to a non-executive Chairman role until 2026. His retirement marks the end of a significant era, as he played a pivotal role in the growth and success of the company, which boasts over $32 billion in assets and has returned substantial capital to stockholders. The transition is expected to be smooth, with the leadership team poised to continue building on the company’s strong foundation.