Air Lease (AL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.89B
• Dividend Yield: 1.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.15M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 2.81%
• EPS Growth: 15.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 165
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 82
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.26
• Shares Outstanding: 111,759,130
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,108,086
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,146,585
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 30.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $55.00
• Price Target Upside: 2.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

Air Lease demonstrates a strong financial position with robust revenue growth, operational efficiency, and a solid balance sheet devoid of debt. The stock's valuation is attractive, and recent positive earnings guidance further supports a favorable outlook. However, the challenges in profitability and cash flow management, along with potential short-term technical corrections due to overbought conditions, slightly temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Earnings

EPS beats expectations on strong aircraft sales and Russian settlement recovery.

Revenue

Aircraft Sales, Trading, & Other revenue came in at $93mn, up 90% driven by increased gains on aircraft sales.

Negative Factors

Expenses

Expenses exceeded estimates, driven by one-time payouts related to the retirement of Executive Chairman Steven Udvar-Házy.

Market Position

Analyst maintains Underperform rating, seeing other names better positioned for market dynamics including strong demand for engines and uncertainty as to timing of OEM deliveries.

Production Challenges

Deliveries remain challenged near term: Management noted it will take time for Boeing to return pre-strike production speed as workers will require training before going back to work.

Air Lease Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Air Lease Corporation, an aircraft leasing company, engages in the purchase and leasing of commercial jet aircraft to airlines worldwide. It also sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to third parties, including other leasing companies, financial services companies, airlines, and other investors. In addition, the company provides fleet management services to investors and owners of aircraft portfolios. As of December 31, 2021, it owned a fleet of 382 aircraft, including 278 narrowbody aircraft and 104 widebody aircraft. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Air Lease Corporation generates revenue primarily through leasing aircraft to airlines. The company enters into long-term lease agreements with airlines, which provide a consistent and predictable stream of income. These leases typically include fixed monthly payments, which cover the cost of the aircraft and generate profit for the company. Additionally, Air Lease may earn revenue through the sale of aircraft from its fleet and through fleet management services. The company's financial performance is bolstered by its relationships with major aircraft manufacturers, allowing it to acquire new aircraft at competitive prices, which it can lease at favorable rates.

Air Lease Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Air Lease shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, indicated by high gross profit and EBIT margins. The absence of debt enhances financial stability. However, the decline in net profit margin and negative free cash flow highlight challenges in profitability and cash management. Overall, the company's financial position is robust, but there is room for improvement in profitability and cash flow management.

Income Statement

Air Lease has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a notable increase from $2.69 billion in 2023 to $2.73 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin appears strong at 100% due to the nature of its business model. However, the net profit margin decreased from 22.9% in 2023 to 13.6% in 2024, indicating reduced profitability. Despite this, EBIT margin improved significantly, showcasing operational efficiency. The data suggests strong operational performance but highlights a decrease in net income impact on profit margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a robust equity position with stockholders' equity growing to $7.53 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0, indicating no debt, which is a positive sign of financial strength. The equity ratio has improved, suggesting a stronger asset base relative to liabilities. Return on equity has decreased due to lower net income, but overall, the company's financial leverage is well-managed.

Cash Flow

There is a negative free cash flow trend, with a free cash flow of -$2.5 billion in 2024, but it's an improvement from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 4.51, highlighting efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting ongoing capital expenditures exceeding cash generated.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.73B	2.68B	2.32B	2.09B	2.02B
	Gross Profit
807.90M	961.29M	858.42M	743.43M	803.01M
	EBIT
588.08M	1.43B	685.97M	591.64M	689.70M
	EBITDA
1.73B	1.88B	1.37B	1.47B	1.47B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
427.70M	614.62M	-97.02M	436.63M	516.26M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
472.55M	460.87M	766.42M	1.09B	1.73B
	Total Assets
32.28B	30.45B	28.40B	26.97B	25.22B
	Total Debt
20.21B	19.18B	18.64B	17.02B	16.52B
	Net Debt
19.74B	18.72B	17.87B	15.94B	14.78B
	Total Liabilities
24.75B	23.29B	21.75B	19.96B	19.14B
	Stockholders Equity
7.53B	7.16B	6.65B	7.01B	6.07B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-2.50B	-2.78B	-2.26B	-1.86B	-1.59B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.68B	1.75B	1.38B	1.38B	1.09B
	Investing Cash Flow
-3.04B	-2.78B	-3.40B	-3.09B	-2.53B
	Financing Cash Flow
1.37B	715.98M	1.69B	1.07B	2.86B

Air Lease Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 53.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 53.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.37, above the 50-day MA of 46.12, and above the 200-day MA of 46.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.75 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AL.

Air Lease Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AL	81 Outperform	$5.89B	8.54	9.22%	1.60%	2.81%	15.38%
SKYW	76 Outperform	$3.81B	10.77	15.66%	―	20.53%	217.24%
TRN	71 Outperform	$2.01B	15.18	14.14%	4.64%	-9.40%	8.41%
ALK	69 Neutral	$5.77B	17.68	8.90%	―	20.82%	47.79%
GATX	67 Neutral	$5.21B	18.64	11.64%	1.61%	12.07%	11.93%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.30B	11.84	5.23%	249.82%	4.10%	-10.59%
JBLU	43 Neutral	$1.56B	―	-11.30%	―	-3.02%	66.90%

Air Lease Corporate Events

Air Lease Elects Board and Ratifies Auditor

On May 2, 2025, Air Lease Corporation held its annual stockholders’ meeting, where nine directors were elected to the board, KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025, and the 2024 executive compensation was approved on an advisory basis. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, impacting its leadership structure and financial oversight, which are crucial for stakeholders and the company’s strategic direction.

Spark’s Take on AL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, AL is a Outperform.

Air Lease demonstrates a strong financial position with robust revenue growth, operational efficiency, and a solid balance sheet devoid of debt. The stock’s valuation is attractive, and recent positive earnings guidance further supports a favorable outlook. However, the challenges in profitability and cash flow management, along with potential short-term technical corrections due to overbought conditions, slightly temper the overall score.

To see Spark’s full report on AL stock, click here.

Air Lease Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 5, 2025, Air Lease held a conference call to discuss its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting revenues of $738 million and $3.26 in diluted earnings per share. The company achieved record levels in total revenue, fleet net book value, and book value per common share, benefiting from fleet expansion and insurance settlements. Despite higher interest expenses and retirement-related costs, Air Lease’s sales pipeline remains robust, with expectations of $1.5 billion in aircraft sales for 2025. The company faces delivery delays from Airbus but continues to see strong demand for aircraft globally, particularly outside North America, where 87% of its business is conducted. Global passenger air traffic growth and favorable economic conditions, like declining fuel prices and a weakening dollar, support the company’s positive outlook.

Spark’s Take on AL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, AL is a Outperform.

Air Lease Corporation demonstrates strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and operational efficiency. The technical indicators and valuation suggest a stable outlook, while the positive earnings call supports future growth prospects. Challenges like profitability and cash flow management impact the score but are balanced by the company’s strong financial position and market demand.

To see Spark’s full report on AL stock, click here.

Air Lease Announces Retirement of Executive Chairman

On March 13, 2025, Air Lease Corporation announced that its Executive Chairman, Steven Udvar-Házy, will retire on May 2, 2025, following the company’s annual meeting. Mr. Udvar-Házy, who founded the company in 2010, will transition to a non-executive Chairman role until 2026. His retirement marks the end of a significant era, as he played a pivotal role in the growth and success of the company, which boasts over $32 billion in assets and has returned substantial capital to stockholders. The transition is expected to be smooth, with the leadership team poised to continue building on the company’s strong foundation.

Air Lease Reports Record Revenue and Fleet Value

On February 13, 2025, Air Lease Corporation held a conference call to discuss its financial results for Q4 2024 and the full year. The company reported record revenue and fleet net book value for 2024, driven by fleet expansion and aircraft sales. Despite challenges in aircraft delivery and manufacturing, Air Lease expects to maintain strong performance in 2025, with robust lease rates and reduced debt funding needs due to self-funding capabilities. The company also highlighted the growing demand for widebody aircraft and the successful reduction of its exposure to the Chinese market.