Air Lease (AL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.73B
• Dividend Yield: 1.44%
• Average Volume (3M): 777.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 8.08%
• EPS Growth: 76.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 165
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.33
• Shares Outstanding: 111,765,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 642,483
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 777,090
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.86
• 1Y Price Target: $65.86
• Price Target Upside: 9.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $67.00 ▲(11.28% Upside)

Air Lease's overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call outcomes. The undervaluation and technical indicators support a positive outlook, though high leverage and cash flow issues warrant caution.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

The company's earnings per share exceeded both analyst estimates and financial consensus.

Financial Recovery

Air Lease has recovered a total of $764mm against its initial $791mm write-off related to aircraft detained in Russia.

Revenue Growth

Revenues surpassed estimates, driven by rental revenue and higher lease yields.

Negative Factors

Return on Equity Decline

Adjusted ROE came in at 9.0%, down from 10.8%.

Revenue Decline

Aircraft Sales, Trading, & Other revenue totaled $53mn, down 8% due to reduced sales volumes.

Share Buyback Concerns

The market was disappointed by the lack of a buyback announcement.

Air Lease Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Air Lease Corporation (AL) is a leading global aircraft leasing company headquartered in Los Angeles, California. The company specializes in purchasing commercial jetliners and leasing them to airlines around the world. Air Lease operates within the aviation sector, providing a diverse portfolio of aircraft, including narrow-body and wide-body jets, to meet the varied needs of its airline customers. In addition to leasing services, AL also offers fleet management and advisory services to help airlines optimize their operations.

How the Company Makes Money

Air Lease generates revenue primarily through the leasing of aircraft to airline operators. The company purchases new aircraft from manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus and then leases these jets to airlines under long-term contracts. The lease payments, which can be structured as fixed monthly payments, provide a steady stream of income. Additionally, AL may earn revenue through fees associated with aircraft management services and advisory services. Significant partnerships with major aircraft manufacturers and a diverse customer base worldwide also contribute to its earnings, allowing the company to maintain a competitive edge in the leasing market.

Air Lease Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Air Lease demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with high gross profit and EBIT margins. The absence of debt enhances financial stability, but challenges in profitability and cash flow management are evident due to a declining net profit margin and negative free cash flow.

Income Statement

Air Lease has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a notable increase from $2.69 billion in 2023 to $2.73 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin appears strong at 100% due to the nature of its business model. However, the net profit margin decreased from 22.9% in 2023 to 13.6% in 2024, indicating reduced profitability. Despite this, EBIT margin improved significantly, showcasing operational efficiency. The data suggests strong operational performance but highlights a decrease in net income impact on profit margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a robust equity position with stockholders' equity growing to $7.53 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0, indicating no debt, which is a positive sign of financial strength. The equity ratio has improved, suggesting a stronger asset base relative to liabilities. Return on equity has decreased due to lower net income, but overall, the company's financial leverage is well-managed.

Cash Flow

There is a negative free cash flow trend, with a free cash flow of -$2.5 billion in 2024, but it's an improvement from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 4.51, highlighting efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting ongoing capital expenditures exceeding cash generated.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.87B	2.73B	2.68B	2.32B	2.09B	2.02B
Gross Profit	1.42B	807.90M	961.29M	858.42M	743.43M	803.01M
EBITDA	2.68B	1.73B	1.88B	1.37B	1.47B	1.47B
Net Income	977.89M	427.70M	614.62M	-97.02M	436.63M	516.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.30B	32.28B	30.45B	28.40B	26.97B	25.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	454.80M	472.55M	460.87M	766.42M	1.09B	1.73B
Total Debt	20.32B	20.21B	19.18B	18.64B	17.02B	16.52B
Total Liabilities	25.07B	24.75B	23.29B	21.75B	19.96B	19.14B
Stockholders Equity	8.22B	7.53B	7.16B	6.65B	7.01B	6.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-571.19M	-2.50B	-2.78B	-2.26B	-1.86B	-1.59B
Operating Cash Flow	1.75B	1.68B	1.75B	1.38B	1.38B	1.09B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.60B	-3.04B	-2.78B	-3.40B	-3.09B	-2.53B
Financing Cash Flow	851.39M	1.37B	715.98M	1.69B	1.07B	2.86B

Air Lease Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 60.21
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.84, above the 50-day MA of 57.79, and above the 200-day MA of 51.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AL.

Air Lease Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AL	80 Outperform	$6.73B	7.31	12.59%	1.44%	8.08%	76.55%
AER	79 Outperform	$21.81B	7.48	16.87%	0.86%	3.24%	4.46%
GATX	74 Outperform	$5.99B	19.24	12.54%	1.41%	11.74%	33.85%
WLFC	69 Neutral	$1.01B	8.84	19.97%	0.67%	30.08%	32.62%
FTAI	68 Neutral	$15.78B	38.16	389.50%	0.78%	55.05%	―
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.86B	16.10	7.81%	1.99%	2.67%	-15.47%

Air Lease Corporate Events

Air Lease Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results

On August 4, 2025, Air Lease Corporation held a conference call to discuss its financial results for the second quarter of 2025. The company reported revenues of $732 million and $3.33 in diluted earnings per share, driven by new aircraft deliveries and gains on sales. The company achieved record levels in fleet net book value and book value per common share. Air Lease also highlighted its success in recovering 104% of its initial Russia fleet write-off through insurance settlements. The company canceled its order for seven A350F aircraft, freeing up over $1 billion in capital for other investments. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, Air Lease remains optimistic about the strong demand for commercial aircraft and plans to continue its aircraft sales to maximize capital.

Air Lease Secures $112.4 Million in Insurance Settlement

Air Lease Corporation has reached settlement agreements with certain insurers to recover losses related to aircraft detained in Russia, resulting in $112.4 million in cash insurance proceeds, which will be recorded in the second quarter of 2025. This settlement is part of a larger recovery effort, with the company having recovered $763.5 million of its initial $791.0 million write-off, and it plans to settle with the final insurer in the third quarter of 2025, impacting its financial recovery and legal proceedings.