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Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY)
OTHER OTC:GASNY
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Naturgy Energy Group SA
(OTC:GASNY)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
â–²(16.86% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/01/26
The score is driven primarily by financially solid but not risk-free fundamentals (stable profitability and cash generation, offset by revenue decline and leverage). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and ~4% yield, while the latest call was broadly constructive (stable guidance, strong hedging and liquidity) despite near-term net debt and FX/regulatory headwinds. Technicals indicate only mild positive momentum.
Positive Factors
Improved Margins
The improvement in gross profit margin indicates better cost management and operational efficiency, which can enhance long-term profitability and competitiveness.
Strong Cash Flow
Strong free cash flow generation provides financial flexibility for investments, debt reduction, and shareholder returns, supporting sustainable growth.
Increased Free Float
Increasing the free float enhances share liquidity and marketability, potentially attracting more investors and improving capital market access.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Continued revenue decline poses a risk to financial stability and growth, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in future projects.
Rising Debt Levels
Increased leverage can strain financial resources and limit operational flexibility, posing risks to long-term financial health and investment capacity.
Challenges in Renewable Generation
Challenges in renewable generation can hinder the company's transition to sustainable energy solutions, affecting long-term growth in this strategic area.
Naturgy Energy Group SA (GASNY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.86B
Dividend Yield4.19%
Average Volume (3M)2.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.8
Beta (1Y)-0.01
Revenue Growth3.23%
EPS Growth1.90%
CountryUS
Employees6,594
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding4,848,069,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume2,194
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)2.67
Price to Sales (P/S)1.34
P/FCF Ratio10.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.80
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$22.30B
Naturgy Energy Group SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNaturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas. It operates through Energy and Network Management, Renewables and New Business, Supply, and Rest segments. The company engages in the regulated gas and electricity distribution; sale of liquefied natural gas and the sea transport business; management of the gas pipelines and conventional thermal generation facilities; and generation and sale of electricity through wind, mini-hydro, solar, and cogeneration sources, as well as provision of supply management services. It serves in Spain, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Panama, the rest of Latin America, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Gas Natural SDG, S.A. and changed its name to Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. in June 2018. Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. was incorporated in 1843 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
How the Company Makes MoneyNaturgy generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model includes both regulated and unregulated activities, with significant income deriving from its extensive network of gas and power distribution. Additionally, Naturgy invests in renewable energy projects, which contribute to its earnings through the sale of electricity generated from renewable sources. The company has established strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its market reach and enhance its operational capabilities, further bolstering its financial performance. Factors such as regulatory frameworks, energy prices, and demand for cleaner energy solutions significantly influence its earnings.
Naturgy Energy Group SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a predominantly positive operational and financial performance for FY2025: record EBITDA, higher net income, strong cash generation, disciplined CapEx, increased shareholder returns, improved liquidity and a materially reduced gas risk profile via hedging and long-term contracts. These strengths are offset by identifiable near-term challenges including FX headwinds across LatAm, weaker supply and some network declines driven by one-off comparatives, commodity price softness, permitting delays for renewables/biomethane and an expected modest increase in net debt in 2026 tied to scheduled payments. Management emphasized strong risk management, a commitment to financial discipline (BBB rating), and clear mitigation actions (high hedging, regulated tariff reviews, selective growth), suggesting the positives materially outweigh the negatives.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record EBITDA and Strong Profitability
EBITDA reached EUR 5.3 billion in FY2025, a record level for the company, with net income above EUR 2.0 billion (exceeding guidance).
Robust Cash Generation and Improved Free Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations was EUR 4.5 billion; free cash flow after minorities was ~EUR 2.2 billion, EUR 800 million above 2024 (≈+58%), demonstrating strong cash generation and funding capacity.
Strengthened Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Net debt closed at EUR 12.3 billion, below prior guidance (~EUR 13 billion). Average cost of debt stood at 3.9% with ~66% fixed; FFO-to-net debt ≈27%, comfortably above the BBB threshold; completed ~EUR 11 billion of financing operations and reported liquidity around EUR 10 billion.
Disciplined Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns
CapEx was EUR 2.1 billion (in line with strategic plan). Proposed total dividend EUR 1.77/share (+~11% YoY), above the committed floor (EUR 1.7). Dividend floor for 2026 set at EUR 1.8/share.
Successful Risk Management and Hedging
High hedging levels led to Energy Management EBITDA of EUR 815 million (+8% YoY) and nearly full hedging for 2026 (negligible sensitivity to TTF/Henry Hub/power price moves). Sonatrach price agreement (2025–2027) and a long-term US-sourced LNG SPA (Venture Global starting 2030) increased supply visibility and reduced gas risk profile.
Thermal Generation Outperformance
Thermal generation EBITDA reached EUR 837 million, +39% YoY, supported by higher ancillary services demand in Spain and a favorable court ruling on hydrocarbons tax reimbursement.
Renewables Growth and Capacity Under Construction
Renewable installed capacity reached 8.1 GW at year-end 2025; renewables EBITDA was EUR 586 million (slightly above 2024). There is ~1.2 GW under construction to come into operation in 2026 (including 640 MW + 115 MW repowering targeted in Spain by Q4 2026).
Operational Efficiency Gains
Efficiency improvements reduced OpEx margin from ~36% to ~25% over the transformation period, supported by portfolio simplification, OneGrid best practices and adoption of genAI in commercial activities.
Improved Market Liquidity and Governance Progress
Tender offer and subsequent placements increased free float to >23%; average daily traded volume (ADTV) was ~5x higher from Jan 2025 to Jan 2026. Governance adjustments were unanimously approved by the Board to align with long-term objectives.
Biomethane and Data Center Positioning
Biomethane distribution by Nedgia rose to 170 GWh (+53% YoY); Spain doubled operational plants from 12 to 24 and has >75 projects (≈5.5 TWh potential). Company holds ~3 GW of power-suitable locations (≈500 MW renewables, 400 MW CCGT) and a conservative 2 GW data center pipeline to monetize via PPAs and energy services with limited capital deployment.
Negative Updates
Networks EBITDA Decline and LatAm FX Drag
Networks EBITDA was EUR 2,735 million in 2025, down ~5% YoY. Decline driven by absence of a one-off positive effect in Chile from 2024 and broad-based depreciation of Latin American currencies (notably ARS, BRL, MXN), negatively impacting results.
Supply Business Pressure
Supply EBITDA fell to EUR 535 million, down ~17% YoY, partly due to the loss of an extraordinary positive ruling that benefited 2024 and negative effects from regulated tariffs (legal recovery process ongoing); margins under pressure despite stable volumes and operational efficiencies.
Commodity and Market Price Weakness
Gas benchmarks softened in H2 2025 vs H1 2025 (TTF -23%, Henry Hub -6%, JKM -14%) and Brent averaged $66/bbl in H2 2025 vs $77 in H2 2024, creating a more challenging commodity backdrop for some activities.
Renewables Production and Curtailment Issues in Spain
Renewable production in Spain was ~7% lower YoY due to lower wind and hydro compared with an exceptionally high 2024; curtailments have increased recently, and permitting/administrative delays are slowing project ramp-up (20 authorizations granted vs 140 under review, 40 of which belong to Naturgy).
Expected Net Debt Increase in 2026
Management flagged an expected increase in net debt to ~EUR 13.5 billion in 2026 driven by payments related to supply contract agreements and CNMC (electricity price cap) obligations, representing a near-term balance sheet headwind vs 2025 closing.
Latin America Regulatory and Concession Uncertainty
Several tariff reviews and concession retenders (notably Rio de Janeiro retender in 2027) create regulatory and political uncertainty; results in LatAm remain exposed to FX volatility and timing of tariff updates despite expected inflation recognition in some jurisdictions.
Market Deterioration and Short-Term Price Risk in 1H 2026
Management noted a bumpy start to 2026 with deteriorating market conditions (more depressed electricity prices in 1H 2026 vs 1H 2025) and continued FX volatility, which could pressure earnings despite hedges and mitigation measures.
Delays in Biomethane Investment Rollout
Although pipeline is large (>75 projects), slow administrative processes have delayed biomethane investments; management expects part of the 2027 investment plan to be pushed out until permitting improves.
Company Guidance
The company guided to 2026 EBITDA at about the 2025 level (2025 EBITDA EUR 5.3bn), net income slightly below 2025 but clearly above EUR 1.8bn (2025 net income ~EUR 2.0bn), and CapEx/investment around last year’s c. EUR 2.1bn (with ~EUR 1.0bn to networks and ~EUR 0.8bn to renewables); 1.2 GW of renewables are under construction to come onstream in 2026, total installed capacity was 8.1 GW at year‑end 2025, free cash flow after minorities was ~EUR 2.2bn (CFO ~EUR 4.5bn), net debt closed 2025 at EUR 12.3bn (net debt/EBITDA ~2.3x) and is expected to rise in 2026 in line with guidance (market discussion around ~EUR 13.5bn), FFO/net debt ~27% (comfortably above BBB thresholds), average cost of debt ~3.9% with ~66% fixed, liquidity ~EUR 10bn, completed ~EUR 11bn of financings, dividend floor for 2026 set at EUR 1.80/share (2025 DPS proposed EUR 1.77), strong hedging (nearly fully hedged for 2026, largely hedged into 2027–28) and contracted sales coverage (electricity ~65% industrial / ~75% retail; gas ~75% industrial / ~80% retail).Naturgy Energy Group SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Solid, resilient profitability and generally supportive cash generation, but tempered by three consecutive years of revenue contraction, a recent decline in free cash flow, and a debt-heavy capital structure that reduces flexibility.Income Statement
Profitability is solid and fairly stable for a regulated utility, with net margins around ~9–10% in 2023–2025 and operating profitability consistently healthy. However, revenue has been contracting for three straight years (2023–2025), including a mid-single-digit decline in 2025, which limits the growth profile. Gross margin also swung materially (notably lower in 2025 versus 2024), suggesting some pressure from input costs and/or tariff dynamics even though bottom-line earnings held up.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the main constraint: debt runs at roughly ~1.7–2.1x equity across 2022–2025 (and higher in 2021), which is common in the sector but still leaves less balance-sheet flexibility if rates or capex needs rise. Equity has been relatively stable and returns on equity are strong (~20%+ in most years), yet the capital structure remains meaningfully debt-heavy for a business facing uneven revenue trends.56
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is generally supportive, with positive free cash flow in most years and particularly strong levels in 2022–2025. That said, free cash flow has been declining recently (down in 2024 and 2025), and 2021 showed negative free cash flow, highlighting variability likely tied to investment cycles. Overall cash flow is a strength, but the recent downward direction is worth watching.68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.16B | 18.69B | 19.27B | 22.62B | 33.97B | 22.14B |
| Gross Profit | 7.78B | 5.15B | 7.70B | 7.51B | 6.88B | 5.43B |
| EBITDA | 4.70B | 4.99B | 5.22B | 5.19B | 4.51B | 3.76B |
| Net Income | 2.00B | 1.94B | 1.90B | 1.99B | 1.65B | 1.21B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 36.51B | 39.08B | 40.84B | 37.89B | 40.39B | 38.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.30B | 4.66B | 6.10B | 4.12B | 4.39B | 4.36B |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 17.87B | 17.98B | 15.96B | 16.26B | 16.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.75B | 27.72B | 29.18B | 25.96B | 30.41B | 29.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.78B | 9.34B | 9.48B | 9.45B | 7.57B | 5.89B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.41B | 2.28B | 1.79B | 2.43B | 2.16B | -203.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.63B | 4.35B | 3.99B | 4.86B | 2.16B | 1.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.11B | -1.81B | -1.82B | -2.74B | -1.49B | 1.90B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.26B | -3.53B | -239.00M | -2.26B | -2.85B | -2.85B |
Naturgy Energy Group SA Technical Analysis
Negative
5.99
Price Trends
6.08
Negative
6.09
Negative
6.08
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Positive
37.24
Neutral
12.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GASNY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.07, below the 50-day MA of 6.08, and below the 200-day MA of 6.08, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GASNY.
Naturgy Energy Group SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $6.34B | 21.17 | 11.62% | 3.07% | -23.15% | 157.45% | |
68 Neutral | $27.86B | 12.85 | 22.25% | 4.19% | 3.23% | 1.90% | |
67 Neutral | $30.65B | 16.92 | 9.20% | 2.15% | 12.91% | 9.86% | |
67 Neutral | $22.51B | 21.25 | 10.23% | 2.69% | 19.62% | 12.87% | |
66 Neutral | $5.52B | 9.48 | 13.39% | 4.01% | 13.94% | 13.93% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $7.88B | 6.77 | 12.21% | 3.92% | 1.10% | 140.04% |
* Utilities Sector Average
GASNY
Naturgy Energy Group SA
5.79
0.64
12.46%
ATO
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185.24
38.58
26.31%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
54.74
9.05
19.81%
NI
Nisource
47.03
9.54
25.46%
SWX
Southwest Gas
87.71
17.19
24.38%
UGI
UGI
36.73
5.60
18.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.