Gaia Inc (GAIA)
NASDAQ:GAIA
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Gaia
(NASDAQ:GAIA)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(2.74% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
GAIA scores moderately overall, driven mainly by financially stable fundamentals (high gross margins, low leverage, and improving/positive cash generation) and a positive earnings-call outlook pointing to double-digit growth and a stated path to profitability. Offsetting these are persistent net losses (negative P/E), weak longer-term technical trends (below key moving averages, negative MACD), and execution/transparency risks highlighted on the call.
Positive Factors
High and Improving Gross Margins
Exceptionally high gross margins (≈87%) reflect a digital, low-variable-cost streaming model, enabling substantial gross profit per subscriber. Sustained margins support operating leverage as revenue grows, giving a durable cushion to absorb marketing or product investments while aiding the path to long-term profitability.
Negative Factors
Persistent Net Losses and Negative ROE
Ongoing multi-year net losses and negative returns on equity signal that the company has not yet converted strong gross margins into shareholder returns. Persistent losses constrain reinvestment and capital allocation options and mean profitability targets must be met to validate the current growth strategy.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and Improving Gross Margins
Exceptionally high gross margins (≈87%) reflect a digital, low-variable-cost streaming model, enabling substantial gross profit per subscriber. Sustained margins support operating leverage as revenue grows, giving a durable cushion to absorb marketing or product investments while aiding the path to long-term profitability.
Read all positive factors
Gaia (GAIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$73.19M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)93.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth12.98%
EPS Growth27.93%
CountryUS
Employees104
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.02
Shares Outstanding19,577,871
10 Day Avg. Volume120,958
30 Day Avg. Volume93,117
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
P/FCF Ratio-240.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.50Price Target Upside122.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$110.20M
Gaia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gaia, Inc. operates a digital video subscription service and on-line community for underserved member base in the United States, Canada, Australia, and internationally. It has a digital content library of approximately 10,000 titles in Spanish, Ge...
How the Company Makes Money
Gaia primarily makes money through recurring subscription revenue from its direct-to-consumer streaming service, where customers pay ongoing fees to access the company’s library of video content (e.g., yoga and meditation classes and original/cura...
Gaia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue by country or region to show where Gaia earns most of its money and where growth is coming from. High concentration in one market increases exposure to local economic swings, currency moves, and competitive pressure, while geographic diversification can reveal untapped growth opportunities. For Gaia, regional splits also reflect how well its content and marketing translate across cultures and whether expansion is driving sustainable subscriber gains.
Breaks down revenue by country or region to show where Gaia earns most of its money and where growth is coming from. High concentration in one market increases exposure to local economic swings, currency moves, and competitive pressure, while geographic diversification can reveal untapped growth opportunities. For Gaia, regional splits also reflect how well its content and marketing translate across cultures and whether expansion is driving sustainable subscriber gains.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGaia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial trajectory: double-digit annual revenue growth (11%), expanding gross margins (+100bps), stronger cash generation (free cash flow +$2.2M to $4.9M; cash balance up to $13.5M), improved unit economics (gross profit per employee +~13%), member growth (900k+ members) and early AI product traction (2M+ prompts). Management reiterated double-digit revenue guidance for 2026 and a target to reach P&L profitability by Q4 2026. Offsetting these positives are the remaining full-year net loss (-$4.5M), the early-stage and non-material nature of new initiatives (AI licensing/other products), ~20% reliance on third-party distribution, and limited detail on capital deployment or subscriber reporting changes. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, indicating improving financial health and a credible path to profitability, though execution risk and transparency changes remain points to monitor.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth to Nearly $100M Annual Run-Rate
Q4 revenue of $25.5M; full-year 2025 revenue of $99.0M versus $89.3M in 2024, representing 11% year-over-year growth and an annualized run rate ~ $100M.
Negative Updates
Increased Marketing Spend and Amortization Pressure
Management disclosed higher marketing spend and amortization contributed to ongoing losses, indicating some near-term margin headwinds despite overall margin improvement.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth to Nearly $100M Annual Run-Rate
Q4 revenue of $25.5M; full-year 2025 revenue of $99.0M versus $89.3M in 2024, representing 11% year-over-year growth and an annualized run rate ~ $100M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated guidance for fiscal 2026 calling for double‑digit revenue growth (consistent with 2025’s ~11% growth to $99.0M and a Q4 run‑rate of ~ $100M) and expects to achieve profitability in Q4 2026 while maintaining gross margin near 87.1% for the year; they also emphasized continued free‑cash‑flow positivity (8 consecutive positive quarters, 2025 FCF $4.9M, Q4 FCF $1.7M), a year‑end cash balance of $13.5M with a fully available $10M credit line and no debt outside the campus mortgage. Key drivers cited include a 14–17% price increase rolling out through the year, a focus on direct members (about two‑thirds of direct members >1 year; ~20% of total subscribers via third parties with plans to reduce that share), continued ARPU expansion, and growth from AI and new initiatives (Igniton did $3.2M in 2025 and is expected to grow faster than the core business though remain non‑material in 2026).Gaia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
73
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 98.95M | 90.36M | 80.42M | 82.03M | 79.57M |
| Gross Profit | 86.16M | 77.81M | 68.79M | 71.12M | 69.05M |
| EBITDA | -14.36M | 12.69M | 11.97M | 13.16M | 15.13M |
| Net Income | -4.49M | -5.23M | -5.80M | -3.89M | 3.73M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 154.65M | 141.22M | 130.27M | 135.18M | 133.68M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.54M | 5.86M | 7.77M | 11.56M | 10.27M |
| Total Debt | 9.34M | 11.51M | 12.44M | 22.34M | 14.92M |
| Total Liabilities | 52.52M | 47.20M | 43.49M | 49.32M | 43.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 87.95M | 80.67M | 85.50M | 84.79M | 90.22M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -377.00K | 1.94M | 596.00K | -6.74M | 3.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.67M | 6.92M | 5.87M | 11.52M | 20.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.05M | -15.00M | -5.28M | -19.10M | -23.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.05M | 6.17M | -4.38M | 8.88M | 655.00K |
Gaia Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.92
Price Trends
3.03
Negative
3.34
Negative
4.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
52.32
Neutral
82.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GAIA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.78, below the 50-day MA of 3.03, and below the 200-day MA of 4.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GAIA.
Gaia Risk Analysis
Gaia disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gaia reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gaia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $331.42M | -2.36 | -19.80% | ― | -2.85% | 75.96% | |
56 Neutral | $73.19M | -20.19 | -5.18% | ― | 12.98% | 27.93% | |
52 Neutral | $51.11M | -10.97 | -24.20% | ― | 77.29% | 97.98% | |
52 Neutral | $1.07B | -1.27 | 35.45% | ― | 9.74% | 12.29% | |
52 Neutral | $56.03M | -3.34 | 128.06% | ― | -32.17% | -135.06% | |
41 Neutral | $41.08M | -1.69 | 100.56% | ― | 7.11% | 69.85% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GAIA
Gaia
3.00
-1.45
-32.58%
CNVS
Cineverse
2.39
-0.50
-17.30%
AMC
AMC Entertainment
1.71
-1.00
-36.90%
RDI
Reading International
1.16
-0.12
-9.38%
LVO
LiveOne
5.05
-1.40
-21.69%
STRZ
Starz Entertainment Corp
18.81
8.38
80.35%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.