Gaia Inc (GAIA)
NASDAQ:GAIA
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Gaia
(NASDAQ:GAIA)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▼(-14.38% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score reflects solid underlying business economics (high gross margins, low leverage, and positive operating cash flow) and a credible multi-quarter plan toward breakeven, balanced against continued net losses and uneven free cash flow. Technically, the stock is in a clear downtrend below key moving averages with negative momentum, which materially pressures the overall score.
Positive Factors
High gross margins and strong unit economics
Gaia's very high gross margins (~85%–86%) combined with an average member LTV ~6x CPA create durable unit economics. These fundamentals support scalable customer acquisition, long-term margin retention as ARPU rises, and a sustainable path to profitability once fixed costs are absorbed.
Negative Factors
Continued net losses and compressed margins
Despite strong top-line momentum and high gross margins, Gaia's operating and net margins remain negative TTM. Continued losses and compressed EBITDA versus prior year indicate cost structure and scale issues that could delay sustainable profitability if revenue or ARPU improvements underperform.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins and strong unit economics
Gaia's very high gross margins (~85%–86%) combined with an average member LTV ~6x CPA create durable unit economics. These fundamentals support scalable customer acquisition, long-term margin retention as ARPU rises, and a sustainable path to profitability once fixed costs are absorbed.
Read all positive factors
Gaia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue by country or region to show where Gaia earns most of its money and where growth is coming from. High concentration in one market increases exposure to local economic swings, currency moves, and competitive pressure, while geographic diversification can reveal untapped growth opportunities. For Gaia, regional splits also reflect how well its content and marketing translate across cultures and whether expansion is driving sustainable subscriber gains.
Breaks down revenue by country or region to show where Gaia earns most of its money and where growth is coming from. High concentration in one market increases exposure to local economic swings, currency moves, and competitive pressure, while geographic diversification can reveal untapped growth opportunities. For Gaia, regional splits also reflect how well its content and marketing translate across cultures and whether expansion is driving sustainable subscriber gains.
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The Fly
The FlyGaia (GAIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$59.99M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)93.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth7.48%
EPS Growth15.04%
CountryUS
Employees104
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.19
Shares Outstanding19,914,177
10 Day Avg. Volume120,958
30 Day Avg. Volume93,117
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
P/FCF Ratio-240.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.75Price Target Upside96.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$109.70M
Gaia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gaia, Inc. operates a digital video subscription service and on-line community for underserved member base in the United States, Canada, Australia, and internationally. It has a digital content library of approximately 10,000 titles in Spanish, Ge...
How the Company Makes Money
Gaia primarily makes money through recurring subscription revenue from its direct-to-consumer streaming service, where customers pay ongoing fees to access the company’s library of video content (e.g., yoga and meditation classes and original/cura...
Gaia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call outlined a clear strategic pivot toward higher-value direct memberships with concrete ARPU and churn targets, ongoing product/AI and community investments, solid margin and free-cash-flow performance, and a defined path to breakeven and multi-year EBITDA targets. Near-term headwinds include a widened net loss, expected revenue pressure during the transition away from third-party channels, and a modest expected gross margin dip due to mix shift. Overall, the company presents a predominantly constructive long-term outlook supported by strong unit economics (LTV ~6x CPA), positive cash generation, and explicit milestones, while acknowledging short-term pain points tied to the strategic reorientation.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $24.3M vs $23.8M in Q1 2025, an increase of $0.5M (~+2.1% YoY), driven by increased ARPU.
Negative Updates
Net Loss Widened
Net loss increased to $1.3M (−$0.05 per share) in Q1 2026 vs $1.0M (−$0.04 per share) in Q1 2025, a deterioration of $0.3M (~+30% larger loss).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $24.3M vs $23.8M in Q1 2025, an increase of $0.5M (~+2.1% YoY), driven by increased ARPU.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Gaia guided a pivot to higher‑value direct members with specific targets and timelines: a ~20% reduction in churn and a 20–25% increase in ARPU between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026, breakeven on the P&L in Q4 2026 and full‑year profitability in 2027, and a long‑term pro forma pathway to $150M revenue and $39.3M adjusted EBITDA by 2029 (after nearly hitting the $100M milestone with $99M revenue and $15.8M adjusted EBITDA in 2025). Q1 results supporting the plan were revenue $24.3M (vs. $23.8M YoY), gross profit $20.9M and gross margin 86% (normalized flat), net loss $1.3M (‑$0.05/sh), annualized gross profit per employee $816k (vs. $806k), operating cash flow $1.5M, free cash flow $1.1M (ninth consecutive quarter positive), cash $13.1M and a $10M available line, while Igniton operates near breakeven with ~$5M cash and no debt. Other key metrics: average member LTV >$500 (≈6x CPA of $85), a 15% price increase rolled out in ~80% of regions for monthly members (annual effective at renewal), ~70% of direct members >1 year and ~40% >3 years, third‑party revenue that had risen to the low‑20s (~near 25%) targeted to be brought back below 20% within 12 months, an expected modest 2–3 point gross‑margin mix headwind by year‑end with a return to ~86% into 2027, and management cautioned near‑term revenue pressure (a Q2–Q3 lull) with a second‑half pickup to achieve the Q4 breakeven goal.Gaia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 99.43M | 98.95M | 90.36M | 80.42M | 82.03M | 79.57M |
| Gross Profit | 84.28M | 86.16M | 77.81M | 68.79M | 71.12M | 69.05M |
| EBITDA | 10.22M | 13.37M | 12.69M | 11.97M | 13.16M | 15.13M |
| Net Income | -4.74M | -4.49M | -5.23M | -5.80M | -3.89M | 3.73M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 154.55M | 154.65M | 141.22M | 130.27M | 135.18M | 133.68M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.10M | 13.54M | 5.86M | 7.77M | 11.56M | 10.27M |
| Total Debt | 9.19M | 9.34M | 11.51M | 12.44M | 22.34M | 14.92M |
| Total Liabilities | 53.55M | 52.52M | 47.20M | 43.49M | 49.32M | 43.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 87.02M | 87.95M | 80.67M | 85.50M | 84.79M | 90.22M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -776.00K | -377.00K | 1.94M | 596.00K | -6.74M | 3.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.87M | 5.67M | 6.92M | 5.87M | 11.52M | 20.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.87M | -10.05M | -15.00M | -5.28M | -19.10M | -23.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.01M | 12.05M | 6.17M | -4.38M | 8.88M | 655.00K |
Gaia Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.92
Price Trends
3.03
Negative
3.34
Negative
4.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
52.32
Neutral
82.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GAIA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.78, below the 50-day MA of 3.03, and below the 200-day MA of 4.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GAIA.
Gaia Risk Analysis
Gaia disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gaia reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gaia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
56 Neutral | $388.17M | -0.48 | -44.91% | ― | ― | ― | |
54 Neutral | $59.99M | -13.79 | -5.46% | ― | 7.48% | 15.04% | |
52 Neutral | $54.09M | -10.97 | -24.20% | ― | -23.64% | 43.97% | |
50 Neutral | $71.13M | -3.34 | 128.06% | ― | -38.49% | -61.52% | |
48 Neutral | $38.26M | -0.79 | 122.83% | ― | 1.12% | 35.50% | |
46 Neutral | $783.45M | -1.13 | 29.90% | ― | 10.63% | -7.77% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GAIA
Gaia
2.37
-2.00
-45.77%
CNVS
Cineverse
2.54
-0.84
-24.85%
AMC
AMC Entertainment
1.28
-1.62
-55.86%
RDI
Reading International
1.06
-0.26
-19.70%
LVO
LiveOne
5.28
-3.62
-40.67%
STRZ
Starz Entertainment Corp
23.12
8.13
54.24%
Gaia Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gaia Shareholders Back Directors and Executive Pay Plans
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
Gaia held its Annual Meeting on April 23, 2026, where shareholders elected six directors, including Jirka Rysavy and Kristin Frank, to serve until the 2027 annual meeting or until successors are chosen, all receiving strong shareholder support. In...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.