Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Gaia Inc (GAIA)
NASDAQ:GAIA
Top Page
Gaia
(NASDAQ:GAIA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▲(5.11% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
GAIA scores moderately overall, driven mainly by financially stable fundamentals (high gross margins, low leverage, and improving/positive cash generation) and a positive earnings-call outlook pointing to double-digit growth and a stated path to profitability. Offsetting these are persistent net losses (negative P/E), weak longer-term technical trends (below key moving averages, negative MACD), and execution/transparency risks highlighted on the call.
Positive Factors
High gross margins
Sustained ~86–87% gross margins indicate a highly scalable subscription/content model with low incremental delivery costs. Over the next 2–6 months this supports margin resilience as revenue grows, enabling operating leverage and a clearer pathway to converting gross profit into operating profitability.
Consistent cash generation
Positive and strengthening free cash flow and a higher cash cushion materially reduce financing risk and fund reinvestment. Durable cash generation supports execution of pricing, product and modest capital allocation choices while providing a buffer as the company pursues sustained profitability.
Re-accelerating revenue and member base
Re-accelerating top-line growth and a >900k member base create a stable recurring revenue foundation. Combined with higher ARPU from recent price increases and strong direct-channel retention, this structurally supports long-term revenue predictability and scalable customer economics.
Negative Factors
Persistent net losses
Ongoing multi-year net losses and negative ROE show the company has not yet converted strong gross profits into sustainable net earnings. This constrains reinvestment flexibility and increases reliance on execution to hit the projected profitability target, leaving material execution risk over the medium term.
Third-party exposure & pricing reliance
Meaningful third-party distribution reduces control over margins, customer data, and pricing. The strategy relies materially on ARPU increases and converting third-party subs; if price-driven churn or conversion difficulties occur, sustainable revenue growth and unit economics could be impaired.
Reduced transparency / unclear capital allocation
Shifting away from subscriber reporting and providing limited capital allocation guidance reduces visibility into unit metrics and management priorities. This hampers investors' ability to assess retention and conversion progress and makes it harder to evaluate long-term execution of strategy or returns from excess liquidity.
Gaia (GAIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$83.39M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)93.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth12.98%
EPS Growth27.93%
CountryUS
Employees104
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.02
Shares Outstanding19,642,677
10 Day Avg. Volume120,958
30 Day Avg. Volume93,117
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
P/FCF Ratio15.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.50Price Target Upside95.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$109.90M
Gaia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGaia, Inc. operates a digital video subscription service and on-line community for underserved member base in the United States, Canada, Australia, and internationally. It has a digital content library of approximately 10,000 titles in Spanish, German, and French languages available to its subscribers on internet-connected devices. The company's network includes Yoga channel, which provides access to yoga, eastern arts, and other movement based classes; Transformation channel that offers spiritual growth, personal development, and consciousness content; Alternative Healing channel, which features content focused on food and nutrition, holistic healing, alternative and integrative medicines, and longevity; and Seeking Truth channel that offers category-leading talent that enables to draw speakers, authors, and experts in the alternative media world. It also operates gaia.com and gaiamtv.com websites. Gaia, Inc. complements its produced and owned content through long term licensing agreements. The company was formerly known as Gaiam, Inc. and changed its name to Gaia, Inc. in July 2016. Gaia, Inc. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Louisville, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyGaia generates revenue primarily through subscription services, offering monthly and annual membership plans that provide access to its extensive library of content. The company also monetizes its platform through partnerships and collaborations with content creators, wellness experts, and influencers, which can include revenue-sharing agreements. Additionally, Gaia may explore opportunities in merchandising, selling related products or services that align with its brand and content offerings. The increasing global interest in wellness and alternative health practices contributes to its revenue by attracting a dedicated subscriber base.
Gaia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue by country or region to show where Gaia earns most of its money and where growth is coming from. High concentration in one market increases exposure to local economic swings, currency moves, and competitive pressure, while geographic diversification can reveal untapped growth opportunities. For Gaia, regional splits also reflect how well its content and marketing translate across cultures and whether expansion is driving sustainable subscriber gains.
Breaks down revenue by country or region to show where Gaia earns most of its money and where growth is coming from. High concentration in one market increases exposure to local economic swings, currency moves, and competitive pressure, while geographic diversification can reveal untapped growth opportunities. For Gaia, regional splits also reflect how well its content and marketing translate across cultures and whether expansion is driving sustainable subscriber gains.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGaia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial trajectory: double-digit annual revenue growth (11%), expanding gross margins (+100bps), stronger cash generation (free cash flow +$2.2M to $4.9M; cash balance up to $13.5M), improved unit economics (gross profit per employee +~13%), member growth (900k+ members) and early AI product traction (2M+ prompts). Management reiterated double-digit revenue guidance for 2026 and a target to reach P&L profitability by Q4 2026. Offsetting these positives are the remaining full-year net loss (-$4.5M), the early-stage and non-material nature of new initiatives (AI licensing/other products), ~20% reliance on third-party distribution, and limited detail on capital deployment or subscriber reporting changes. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, indicating improving financial health and a credible path to profitability, though execution risk and transparency changes remain points to monitor.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth to Nearly $100M Annual Run-Rate
Q4 revenue of $25.5M; full-year 2025 revenue of $99.0M versus $89.3M in 2024, representing 11% year-over-year growth and an annualized run rate ~ $100M.
Strong Gross Margins and Margin Expansion
Q4 gross margin of 87.6% (above the 2025 average of 87.1%); full-year gross margin improved by 100 basis points to 87.1% from 86.1% in 2024.
Improving Cash Generation and Liquidity
Full-year free cash flow increased $2.2M to $4.9M (from $2.7M, ~+81%); Q4 free cash flow improved $1.1M to $1.7M; cash balance increased to $13.5M from $5.9M a year ago (increase of $7.6M, ~+129%); eight consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow.
Operational Efficiency Gains
Gross profit per employee increased to $827,000 from $730,000 (~+13%), reflecting improved productivity and AI-driven efficiencies across code, content production and creative workflows.
Membership Milestones and Direct-Channel Loyalty
Total members surpassed 900,000 for the first time with +20,000 members added in Q4; approximately two-thirds of direct members have been with Gaia for more than one year, and direct members deliver ~2x retention and ~2x revenue per member versus third-party distribution.
AI Product Momentum
Beta AI Guide generated over 2 million prompts in its first 60 days with early engagement showing deeper session activity and higher repeat usage; AI being embedded across personalization, onboarding, search and content workflows.
Product Line and New Initiatives Contribution
Igniton (introduced in H2 2025) contributed $3.2M in 2025 and management expects it to grow faster than the core business, highlighting diversification beyond core SVOD.
Improving Profitability Trajectory
Quarterly net loss improved to -$0.5M (-$0.02/share) from -$0.8M (-$0.03) year-ago quarter; full-year net loss improved to -$4.5M (-$0.18) from -$5.2M (-$0.22); company targets P&L profitability by Q4 2026.
Planned Price Increase to Support ARPU
Company implemented price increases of ~14%–17% (applied to new customers and to existing customers in opt-out countries), with churn tracking favorably relative to prior price increase and management pointing to ARPU as a key 2026 growth driver.
Negative Updates
Increased Marketing Spend and Amortization Pressure
Management disclosed higher marketing spend and amortization contributed to ongoing losses, indicating some near-term margin headwinds despite overall margin improvement.
Limited Capital Allocation Details
Despite stronger cash balance and a $10M line of credit, management declined to discuss plans for excess cash (no details on potential M&A, buybacks or specific deployment), leaving uncertainty on shareholder capital returns or inorganic growth strategy.
Still Operating at a Net Loss
Company remains unprofitable for the full year (net loss of -$4.5M), albeit improved vs. prior year; profitability is projected, not yet realized (target: Q4 2026).
New Initiatives Currently Non-Material
New lines and potential AI licensing remain early-stage and non-material to 2026 guidance; management noted licensing and other AI revenues would be one-time or modest upside, with core SVOD expected to drive the reiterated double-digit growth guidance.
Third-Party Distribution Exposure
Approximately 20% of subscribers/revenue remain from third-party platforms; management aims to reduce that share only modestly and will emphasize direct-channel marketing—conversion plans are high-level rather than detailed.
Disclosure / Metrics Shift May Reduce Transparency
Company will stop reporting total subscriber count as a primary metric and shift emphasis to revenue, free cash flow, LTV and earnings, which could reduce visibility into subscriber trends for some investors.
Company Guidance
Management reiterated guidance for fiscal 2026 calling for double‑digit revenue growth (consistent with 2025’s ~11% growth to $99.0M and a Q4 run‑rate of ~ $100M) and expects to achieve profitability in Q4 2026 while maintaining gross margin near 87.1% for the year; they also emphasized continued free‑cash‑flow positivity (8 consecutive positive quarters, 2025 FCF $4.9M, Q4 FCF $1.7M), a year‑end cash balance of $13.5M with a fully available $10M credit line and no debt outside the campus mortgage. Key drivers cited include a 14–17% price increase rolling out through the year, a focus on direct members (about two‑thirds of direct members >1 year; ~20% of total subscribers via third parties with plans to reduce that share), continued ARPU expansion, and growth from AI and new initiatives (Igniton did $3.2M in 2025 and is expected to grow faster than the core business though remain non‑material in 2026).Gaia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show stability but incomplete profitability: revenue growth has re-accelerated and gross margins are very high (~86–87%), the balance sheet is low-leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.11), and operating cash flow/free cash flow are positive (2025 OCF about $5.7M; FCF strongly positive). However, GAIA remains loss-making with negative ROE and negative operating results, keeping the score moderate.Income Statement
Revenue has re-accelerated, with 2025 sales up ~9.5% year-over-year after +12.4% in 2024 (following a slight decline in 2023), and gross margins remain exceptionally high (~86–87%) and stable. However, profitability is still weak: GAIA remains loss-making (2022–2025 net losses), with 2025 net margin around -4.5% and operating results still negative, signaling the business has not consistently translated strong gross profit into sustainable earnings.42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks conservative: leverage is low with debt-to-equity around 0.11 in 2025 (improving from ~0.26 in 2022), and equity remains substantial (~$88M) relative to total assets (~$155M). The key weakness is returns: return on equity is negative across 2022–2025, reflecting ongoing net losses despite a solid capital base.73
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow has stayed positive each year (about $5.7M in 2025), and free cash flow turned strongly positive in 2025 (~$5.7M) after being modest in 2023–2024 and sharply negative in 2022. That said, cash flow relative to revenue remains modest (operating cash flow to revenue ~0.15 in 2025), and the multi-year volatility in free cash flow suggests consistency is not yet firmly established.64
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 98.95M | 90.36M | 80.42M | 82.03M | 79.57M |
| Gross Profit | 86.16M | 77.81M | 68.79M | 71.12M | 69.05M |
| EBITDA | -14.36M | 12.69M | 11.97M | 13.16M | 15.13M |
| Net Income | -4.49M | -5.23M | -5.80M | -3.89M | 3.73M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 154.65M | 141.22M | 130.27M | 135.18M | 133.68M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.54M | 5.86M | 7.77M | 11.56M | 10.27M |
| Total Debt | 9.34M | 11.51M | 12.44M | 22.34M | 14.92M |
| Total Liabilities | 52.52M | 47.20M | 43.49M | 49.32M | 43.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 87.95M | 80.67M | 85.50M | 84.79M | 90.22M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.67M | 1.94M | 596.00K | -6.74M | 3.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.67M | 6.92M | 5.87M | 11.52M | 20.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.05M | -15.00M | -5.28M | -19.10M | -23.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.05M | 6.17M | -4.38M | 8.88M | 655.00K |
Gaia Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.33
Price Trends
3.46
Negative
4.02
Negative
4.50
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
49.75
Neutral
51.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GAIA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.23, below the 50-day MA of 3.46, and below the 200-day MA of 4.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GAIA.
Gaia Risk Analysis
Gaia disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gaia reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gaia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
56 Neutral | $83.39M | -20.19 | -5.63% | ― | 12.98% | 27.93% | |
55 Neutral | $63.84M | -10.97 | -24.27% | ― | 77.29% | 97.98% | |
48 Neutral | $60.32M | -3.34 | ― | ― | -32.17% | -135.06% | |
44 Neutral | $598.39M | ― | ― | ― | 9.74% | 12.29% | |
44 Neutral | $43.39M | -2.01 | ― | ― | 7.11% | 69.85% | |
44 Neutral | $203.72M | -2.36 | ― | ― | -2.85% | 75.96% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GAIA
Gaia
3.33
-0.83
-19.95%
CNVS
Cineverse
3.07
-0.56
-15.43%
AMC
AMC Entertainment
1.18
-1.83
-60.80%
RDI
Reading International
1.02
-0.35
-25.55%
LVO
LiveOne
5.27
-2.65
-33.46%
STRZ
Starz Entertainment Corp
13.02
2.59
24.83%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.