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Cineverse (CNVS)
NASDAQ:CNVS

Cineverse (CNVS) AI Stock Analysis

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Cineverse

(NASDAQ:CNVS)

Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
Cineverse's overall stock score reflects a mixed performance. Strong recent financial performance and a debt-free balance sheet are offset by ongoing profitability issues and a negative P/E ratio, indicating valuation concerns. The technical indicators suggest caution, while the earnings call provides optimism for continued growth, albeit with some dependency risks.
Positive Factors
Company Trajectory
Cineverse's monumental success with an unrated horror film has completely changed the story and trajectory for the company.
Financial Performance
Cineverse recorded a $3 million EBITDA beat in the latest quarter, demonstrating strong financial performance.
Revenue Streams
A low-single-digit millions contract for Matchpoint with a major studio represents a potentially high-margin, recurring revenue stream.
Strategic Growth
Cineverse’s off-shoring program benefits suggest potential for strong future performance.
Negative Factors
Market Valuation
Shares still trade at 7.5x conservative FY26E EBITDA and under 1x revenue, suggesting potential undervaluation concerns.
Uncertain Success
Expectations are tempered by a combination of timing and lack of clarity around success in merchandising and physical sales contributions.

Cineverse (CNVS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Cineverse Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCineverse Corp. operates as a streaming technology and entertainment company. It owns and operates streaming channels, through its proprietary technology platform. The company also delivers curated content through subscription video on demand (SVOD), dedicated ad-supported (AVOD), and ad-supported streaming linear (FAST) channels, as well as social video streaming services and audio podcasts; operates OTT streaming entertainment channels. It entertains consumers worldwide by providing feature film and television programs, enthusiast streaming channels, and technology services. The company was formerly known as Cinedigm Corp. and changed its name to Cineverse Corp. in May 2023. Cineverse Corp. was incorporated in 2000 and is based in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyCineverse generates revenue primarily through subscription fees from its streaming service. By offering a tiered subscription model, the company appeals to different consumer segments, from casual viewers to avid entertainment enthusiasts. Additionally, Cineverse capitalizes on advertising revenue through ad-supported streaming options. The company also engages in licensing agreements, distributing its original and acquired content to other platforms and networks. Furthermore, Cineverse explores strategic partnerships with content creators and technology providers to enhance its offerings and expand its market reach. These diverse revenue streams enable Cineverse to maintain a competitive position within the rapidly evolving digital entertainment landscape.

Cineverse Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 27, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 44.50%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call for Cineverse highlighted significant growth in revenue and net income, driven by successful film releases and expansion in streaming and podcasting. The company also reported strong operational margins and promising advancements in technology and AI. However, challenges remain in the programmatic advertising market and FAST channel segments. Overall, the sentiment is positive with strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives outweighing the challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Quarter and Year
Cineverse reported the best quarter in the company's history for Q3 with over $41 million in total revenues and a net income of $7.2 million. For Q4, the company achieved a revenue of $15.6 million, a 58% increase over the prior year, and net income of $858,000, a $15.5 million increase over the previous year.
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
For fiscal year 2025, Cineverse reported total revenues of $78.2 million, a 59% increase over last year. Total full-year net income was $3.8 million, and total full-year adjusted EBITDA was $13.9 million, a 216% increase over last year.
Operational Margin Improvements
The direct operating margin for Q4 was 55%, exceeding the guidance range of 45% to 50%, attributed to cost optimization initiatives. SG&A expenses were reduced by $1.4 million compared to the prior year.
Successful Film Releases and Strategic Slate
The release of 'Terrifier 3' contributed significantly to revenue. Upcoming releases include 'The Toxic Avenger', 'Silent Night, Deadly Night', and 'Return to Silent Hill', all with investments of less than $5 million.
Expansion of Streaming and Podcasting
Streaming engagement increased with over 3.2 billion minutes streamed, a 45% increase year-over-year. Subscriber growth was reported at 4% year-over-year. Podcast revenues were up 57% over the prior year with new licensing agreements.
Technology and AI Initiatives
The company has focused on its proprietary streaming content management and AI technology. Matchpoint and cineSearch are positioned as valuable assets for major studios, with prospects for significant revenue from these technologies.
Negative Updates
Pressure on Programmatic Advertising
The programmatic advertising environment remained depressed due to companies pulling back on discretionary advertising spend, affecting overall revenue from these channels.
Challenges in the FAST Channel Market
The growth in competitive channels from studios has put pressure on CPMs and fill rates, affecting the short to mid-term revenue from FAST channels.
Company Guidance
In the Cineverse Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call held on June 27, 2025, the company highlighted its continued financial and operational success. Total revenue for the fourth quarter was $15.6 million, marking a 58% increase over the prior year, while the net income saw a substantial rise to $858,000, a $15.5 million improvement. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 158% to $4 million. The direct operating margin was reported at 55%, exceeding the target range of 45% to 50%. For the full fiscal year, Cineverse achieved a 59% revenue growth, totaling $78.2 million, with net income at $3.8 million and adjusted EBITDA at $13.9 million, a 216% increase from the previous year. The company attributed its strong results to multiple revenue streams, notably from streaming, digital, and podcast sectors, and highlighted the significant impact of the film Terrifier 3. Looking forward, Cineverse plans to expand its theatrical slate, enhance its technology offerings like Matchpoint and cineSearch, and grow its podcast network, aiming for a high-growth, high-profit, and low-risk business model.

Cineverse Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cineverse has shown significant revenue growth and improved cash flow management, but continues to struggle with profitability, negative net profit margins, and operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet indicates reduced leverage, yet the negative return on equity highlights ongoing profitability challenges.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Cineverse displays significant volatility in its income statement metrics. The TTM gross profit margin is robust at 50.85%, yet the net profit margin is negative due to consistent net losses indicating profitability challenges. Revenue growth from the previous year is notable at 47.5%, but historical volatility raises concerns about sustainable growth. The negative EBITDA margin highlights operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.12 in the TTM, reflecting reduced leverage risk. However, the equity ratio stands at 46.46%, suggesting moderate financial stability. Return on equity is negative, indicating profitability issues impacting shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cineverse shows positive free cash flow in the TTM, with a significant turnaround from previous negative figures, signaling improved cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating efficient cash generation relative to reported losses.
BreakdownTTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue72.47M49.13M68.03M56.05M31.42M39.29M
Gross Profit36.85M30.00M27.90M30.59M8.40M12.75M
EBITDA-4.59M-16.42M-4.46M6.41M-52.21M2.24M
Net Income-11.97M-21.41M-9.73M2.21M-62.82M-14.73M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets80.54M64.38M88.08M104.64M75.45M110.44M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.08M5.17M7.15M13.06M16.85M14.29M
Total Debt4.38M7.16M6.21M749.00K11.99M49.97M
Total Liabilities44.08M32.23M49.01M63.69M59.56M129.73M
Stockholders Equity37.43M33.27M40.34M42.25M17.24M-18.01M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.95M-11.66M-10.24M4.24M-22.62M6.51M
Operating Cash Flow3.49M-10.59M-8.97M4.88M-20.01M7.76M
Investing Cash Flow-704.00K-531.00K-1.27M-12.30M-1.71M-1.25M
Financing Cash Flow-2.24M9.14M4.33M2.64M24.27M-10.09M

Cineverse Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.04
Price Trends
50DMA
3.61
Positive
100DMA
3.55
Positive
200DMA
3.20
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.51
Negative
RSI
89.80
Negative
STOCH
94.36
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNVS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.23, above the 50-day MA of 3.61, and above the 200-day MA of 3.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 89.80 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CNVS.

Cineverse Risk Analysis

Cineverse disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cineverse reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cineverse Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
€3.68B3.594.45%4.87%5.39%-160.72%
56
Neutral
$103.33M40.9810.01%39.86%3.86%
MNMNY
56
Neutral
$46.23M-48.12%345.36%-650.95%
48
Neutral
$24.84M-29.17%-3.17%13.15%
47
Neutral
$39.47M174.77%-1.52%22.36%
42
Neutral
$29.56M-130.56%-26.11%57.68%
RDRDI
42
Neutral
$43.01M-540.12%-7.36%18.52%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CNVS
Cineverse
6.04
5.20
619.05%
SCOR
comScore
5.02
-7.42
-59.65%
RDI
Reading International
1.26
-0.09
-6.67%
MNY
MoneyHero Limited
1.07
-0.78
-42.16%
KORE
KORE Group Holdings
2.30
0.93
67.88%
BODI
Beachbody Company
4.22
-4.34
-50.70%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 02, 2025