Subaru (FUJHY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.53B
• Dividend Yield: 2.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.72K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.53
• Revenue Growth: 1.73%
• EPS Growth: -31.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 37,693
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 1,434,670,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,403
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,724
• PEG Ratio: -0.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 116.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.60
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.69
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $30.31B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▼(-20.00% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/08/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/08/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial durability from low leverage, but it is held back by a meaningful TTM downshift in profitability and free cash flow. Technicals are mildly weak with the stock below key short- and mid-term moving averages, and valuation appears fair-to-slightly expensive given current earnings pressure despite a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative leverage

Sustained low leverage (~0.15x equity) and steadily growing equity materially raise financial resilience. This provides durable capacity to fund capex, weather cyclical auto downturns, and maintain strategic investments or dividends without immediate refinancing pressure.

Diversified revenue streams

Subaru’s business mix—new vehicle sales, recurring parts/after-sales revenue and an aerospace segment—reduces reliance on any single cycle. Aftermarket and aerospace contracts provide steadier cash flow patches across automotive demand cycles, supporting medium-term stability.

Positive cash generation

Despite volatility, operating cash flow and free cash flow remained positive in 2025 and TTM, indicating the business can generate internal funds. Positive cash generation supports reinvestment, working capital and shareholder distributions over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Margin deterioration

A sharp, persistent decline in margins to ~2.2% TTM signals structural pressure on profitability—whether from pricing, higher input/logistics costs, or unfavorable mix. Lower margins materially reduce capacity to fund R&D, electrification, or margin-restoring initiatives over months.

Free cash flow deterioration

A ~60% YoY drop in FCF and weakened cash conversion impair capital allocation flexibility. Even with positive absolute FCF, the decline constrains sustained investment, dividend coverage or buffer for cyclical shocks, raising medium-term funding tradeoffs.

Revenue momentum slowdown

After prior expansion, revenue weakness in 2025 and TTM suggests demand or mix deterioration. Slowing top-line reduces leverage on fixed costs and limits margin recovery possibilities, making sustainable profit restoration more dependent on structural fixes than temporary demand rebounds.

Subaru Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Subaru Corporation, traded under the ticker FUJHY, is a Japanese automotive manufacturer renowned for its all-wheel-drive vehicles and innovative engineering. The company operates primarily in the automotive sector, producing a range of vehicles including sedans, SUVs, and electric vehicles. Subaru is also involved in aerospace and industrial manufacturing, but its core focus remains on the automotive market, where it emphasizes safety, reliability, and performance in its products.

How the Company Makes Money

Subaru generates revenue primarily through the sale of vehicles, with its core revenue stream coming from the production and sale of cars, particularly its popular models such as the Subaru Outback, Forester, and Impreza. The company benefits from a loyal customer base, bolstered by a strong reputation for durability and safety. Additional revenue sources include parts and service sales, which provide ongoing income from existing customers. Subaru also engages in strategic partnerships, such as collaborations with other automakers for technology sharing and joint ventures, which can enhance its production efficiency and expand its market reach. Economic factors, global automotive trends, and consumer preferences significantly influence Subaru's earnings, making adaptability crucial for continued financial success.

Subaru Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance sheet (low leverage and growing equity) supports resilience, but recent TTM profitability and cash-flow deterioration are material near-term concerns. Income statement momentum softened with margins compressing sharply in TTM, and free cash flow fell significantly with weaker cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded sharply into 2023–2024, but momentum softened in the most recent periods, with revenue slightly down in 2025 and down in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Profitability also compressed: net margin fell from ~8.2% (2024) to ~7.2% (2025 annual) and down further to ~2.2% in TTM, with a similar step-down in operating profitability. The positive is that the company has demonstrated it can produce solid margins in stronger years, but the latest TTM profitability deterioration is a clear near-term concern.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative, with debt running at ~0.15x equity in both 2025 annual and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), improving versus earlier years (~0.20–0.24x). Equity has grown steadily over the period, supporting balance-sheet resilience. The main watch item is returns cooling meaningfully in TTM (ROE ~3.8%) versus stronger levels in 2024–2025 annual (~12–15%), which aligns with the recent earnings slowdown rather than balance-sheet stress.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains positive, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both positive in 2025 annual and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, free cash flow volatility is a key issue: after a very strong 2024, free cash flow fell in 2025 and declined sharply in TTM (free cash flow down ~60% year over year). Cash conversion has also weakened recently, with free cash flow covering less than half of net income in TTM (~0.42x), signaling reduced cash efficiency versus prior years.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.71T	4.69T	4.70T	3.77T	2.74T	2.83T
Gross Profit	738.51B	980.34B	992.43B	703.00B	473.49B	465.14B
EBITDA	406.86B	727.82B	693.58B	511.04B	318.05B	310.41B
Net Income	104.23B	338.06B	385.08B	200.43B	70.01B	76.51B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.24T	5.09T	4.81T	3.94T	3.54T	3.41T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	858.37B	1.96T	1.92T	1.37T	1.13T	1.14T
Total Debt	413.28B	399.50B	399.50B	427.12B	441.17B	435.53B
Total Liabilities	2.49T	2.37T	2.25T	1.83T	1.64T	1.63T
Stockholders Equity	2.75T	2.71T	2.56T	2.10T	1.89T	1.78T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	141.62B	226.85B	467.79B	308.89B	9.41B	96.85B
Operating Cash Flow	352.90B	492.14B	767.66B	503.76B	195.65B	289.38B
Investing Cash Flow	-185.05B	-404.08B	-703.70B	-336.81B	-179.72B	-272.17B
Financing Cash Flow	-114.92B	-187.32B	-66.47B	-122.31B	-98.50B	13.97B

Subaru Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.25
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FUJHY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.89, above the 50-day MA of 10.49, and above the 200-day MA of 10.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.41 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FUJHY.

Subaru Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TM	78 Outperform	$307.78B	8.55	10.34%	2.57%	7.28%	12.41%
FUJHY	62 Neutral	$12.53B	-80.67	11.75%	2.85%	1.73%	-31.57%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TSLA	60 Neutral	$1.52T	382.99	4.89%	―	-2.93%	-47.22%
HMC	59 Neutral	$37.02B	9.64	4.11%	4.19%	0.32%	-25.51%
GM	57 Neutral	$71.05B	27.72	4.34%	0.69%	-1.29%	-49.96%
F	56 Neutral	$51.11B	-6.38	-20.26%	5.64%	3.75%	33.37%