Freshpet Inc (FRPT)
NASDAQ:FRPT
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Freshpet
(NASDAQ:FRPT)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$57.00
▼(-17.99% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improved fundamentals (profitability and strong TTM free cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook (raised 2026 sales guidance and continued margin/FCF improvement targets). These positives are meaningfully offset by weak technicals (downtrend with negative momentum) and operational cost headwinds (SG&A and logistics) that could pressure near-term results despite a reasonable P/E.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
Freshpet's shift to materially positive free cash flow and operating cash generation signals structural improvement in cash conversion. Durable FCF supports capex for capacity, funds fridge rollouts, and reduces reliance on external financing through typical business cycles.
Negative Factors
Rising SG&A intensity
Elevated and variable SG&A compresses operating leverage and makes margin improvement contingent on sustained sales growth. If sales slow, higher fixed/variable marketing and compensation will weigh on profitability and could force tradeoffs in media or investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
Freshpet's shift to materially positive free cash flow and operating cash generation signals structural improvement in cash conversion. Durable FCF supports capex for capacity, funds fridge rollouts, and reduces reliance on external financing through typical business cycles.
Read all positive factors
Freshpet Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Retailer
Shows how much revenue comes from each retailer and how concentrated sales are among a few chains. High concentration in one or two retailers increases risk if stocking, pricing, or promotional support changes, while diversified retail distribution supports steadier growth and better negotiating power. Also reveals whether revenue gains are driven by new store listings, higher sales per store, or discounting, giving insight into the durability of Freshpet’s growth and margins.
Shows how much revenue comes from each retailer and how concentrated sales are among a few chains. High concentration in one or two retailers increases risk if stocking, pricing, or promotional support changes, while diversified retail distribution supports steadier growth and better negotiating power. Also reveals whether revenue gains are driven by new store listings, higher sales per store, or discounting, giving insight into the durability of Freshpet’s growth and margins.
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The Fly
The FlyFreshpet (FRPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.54B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth12.01%
EPS Growth1171.89%
CountryUS
Employees1,296
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.10
Shares Outstanding49,142,790
10 Day Avg. Volume1,832,048
30 Day Avg. Volume1,686,446
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)2.46
Price to Sales (P/S)2.70
P/FCF Ratio240.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$80.00Price Target Upside15.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)1.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.21B
Freshpet Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company sells its products under the Freshpet brand; and Dognation and Dog Joy labels through various classes of...
How the Company Makes Money
Freshpet makes money primarily by selling fresh, refrigerated pet food products to retailers and other channel partners, who then sell those products to end consumers. Revenue is largely generated from product sales across its core Freshpet-brande...
Freshpet Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive operating picture: strong top-line growth, expanding household penetration, digital/omnichannel momentum, improving adjusted gross margin and progress on proprietary manufacturing technology. These positives are tempered by elevated SG&A intensity, logistics and fuel cost headwinds, unfavorable price/mix in the quarter, and macro/retailer-related execution risks. Management raised 2026 sales guidance, reiterated adjusted EBITDA guidance, and set ambitious 2027 margin targets, while signaling prudence on capital deployment and the timing of larger technology investments.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales of $297.6 million in Q1, up 13.1% year-over-year; volume contributed ~14.6% growth while price/mix was unfavorable ~1.5%.
Negative Updates
SG&A Pressure and Increased Operating Costs
Adjusted SG&A was 34.2% of net sales in Q1 vs 32.2% prior year (+200 basis points), driven by higher variable compensation, timing of media spend and increased logistics costs; media was 15.8% of sales (vs 15.1% prior).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales of $297.6 million in Q1, up 13.1% year-over-year; volume contributed ~14.6% growth while price/mix was unfavorable ~1.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Freshpet raised 2026 net sales guidance to +8% to +11% (from +7% to +10%) while reiterating adjusted EBITDA of $205M–$215M (implying ~5%–10% YoY growth), and said it expects to be free cash flow positive in 2026 with capital expenditures of roughly $150M (Q1 CapEx $27.6M). Management forecast adjusted gross margin to improve ~50–100 basis points at the midpoint of the sales range (Q1 adjusted gross margin was 46.9%, +120 bps YoY) and reiterated that adjusted EBITDA dollars and margin should improve sequentially for the remainder of the year (Q1 adjusted EBITDA $37.9M, 12.7% margin). They expect media spend ~12.5% of sales for the year, front‑half weighted (Q1 media was 15.8%), flagged elevated logistics costs for the remainder of 2026 after Q1 logistics of 6.3% of sales (vs 5.8% a year ago), and noted operational actions (35% of bag capacity to use new technology by year‑end, potential incremental capex above $150M if accelerating additional lines). Management also reiterated 2027 targets: net sales growth well in excess of U.S. dog food category growth, at least 48% adjusted gross margin and 20%–22% adjusted EBITDA margin, while warning of easier comps through May and a tougher comp in Q3.Freshpet Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 1.10B | 975.18M | 766.89M | 595.34M | 425.49M |
| Gross Profit | 442.09M | 425.20M | 395.96M | 250.87M | 186.03M | 162.15M |
| EBITDA | 163.37M | 171.76M | 133.40M | 41.10M | -15.72M | 5.82M |
| Net Income | 200.34M | 139.14M | 46.92M | -33.61M | -59.49M | -29.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.84B | 1.78B | 1.57B | 1.46B | 1.13B | 784.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 381.38M | 277.98M | 268.63M | 296.87M | 132.74M | 72.79M |
| Total Debt | 494.04M | 560.01M | 424.09M | 425.06M | 5.71M | 7.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 577.12M | 569.12M | 519.52M | 510.97M | 93.81M | 64.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.26B | 1.21B | 1.06B | 953.45M | 1.03B | 719.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 194.97M | 12.38M | -32.80M | -163.15M | -273.30M | -321.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 196.08M | 160.56M | 154.29M | 75.94M | -43.23M | 647.00K |
| Investing Cash Flow | -53.83M | -148.18M | -187.09M | -239.09M | -233.36M | -322.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.60M | -3.04M | 4.57M | 327.29M | 336.54M | 326.99M |
Freshpet Technical Analysis
Negative
69.50
Price Trends
59.48
Negative
65.98
Negative
61.20
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.02
Negative
40.68
Neutral
86.15
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FRPT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 69.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.80, above the 50-day MA of 59.48, and above the 200-day MA of 61.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FRPT.
Freshpet Risk Analysis
Freshpet disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freshpet reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Freshpet Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $2.18B | 13.78 | 10.72% | ― | 0.22% | 46.14% | |
65 Neutral | $2.54B | 12.64 | 16.98% | ― | 12.01% | 1171.89% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.43B | 24.74 | 6.24% | 3.53% | -2.04% | -23.39% | |
61 Neutral | $11.01B | -8.77 | -21.55% | 4.45% | 1.58% | -389.82% | |
59 Neutral | $1.04B | -10.07 | -6.15% | ― | 0.34% | -182.07% | |
57 Neutral | $1.44B | 9.25 | 5.28% | 5.40% | 4.84% | -31.84% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
FRPT
Freshpet
51.60
-29.46
-36.34%
CENT
Central Garden Pet
38.48
3.07
8.67%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
76.12
-34.72
-31.33%
SJM
JM Smucker
103.20
-4.31
-4.01%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
11.52
-22.62
-66.26%
NOMD
Nomad Foods
10.14
-6.27
-38.19%
Freshpet Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Freshpet Delivers Strong Q1 Results and Raises Outlook
Positive
May 6, 2026
Freshpet reported strong first quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, with net sales rising 13.1% year over year to $297.6 million, driven mainly by volume gains, and gross margin improving to 40.5% on lower input costs and better plant leverage. Th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Freshpet Tops $1 Billion Sales With Strong 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
Freshpet reported strong fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 23, 2026, highlighted by net sales of $285.2 million for the quarter, up 8.6% year over year, and $1.1 billion for the full year, up 13%, marking the company’s fi...
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BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.