Freshpet (FRPT)
NASDAQ:FRPT
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Freshpet
(NASDAQ:FRPT)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
▲(6.49% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (profitability and cash flow turning meaningfully positive) and constructive, though cautious, forward guidance for growth and EBITDA. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below major moving averages and negative MACD) and noted operational risks (commodity costs, higher investment spend, and slower growth).
Positive Factors
Scale & Distribution
A large, growing in‑store refrigerated footprint creates durable point‑of‑sale advantage: branded fridges increase visibility, repeat purchase frequency and shelf share. Broad distribution and multi‑fridge placement make it harder for entrants to displace Freshpet and support steady revenue growth over months.
Negative Factors
Slowing Sales Growth
A meaningful deceleration in top‑line growth signals category saturation or weaker consumer demand, which can cap long‑term revenue potential. Management’s more conservative 2026 guidance (7%–10%) implies growth could remain subdued absent sustained omnichannel gains or stronger category expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Distribution
A large, growing in‑store refrigerated footprint creates durable point‑of‑sale advantage: branded fridges increase visibility, repeat purchase frequency and shelf share. Broad distribution and multi‑fridge placement make it harder for entrants to displace Freshpet and support steady revenue growth over months.
Read all positive factors
Freshpet (FRPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.95B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.4
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth16.34%
EPS Growth177.51%
CountryUS
Employees1,296
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.64
Shares Outstanding49,057,180
10 Day Avg. Volume1,883,105
30 Day Avg. Volume1,615,758
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)2.46
Price to Sales (P/S)2.70
P/FCF Ratio240.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$85.67Price Target Upside42.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)1.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.20B
Freshpet Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company sells its products under the Freshpet brand; and Dognation and Dog Joy labels through various classes of...
How the Company Makes Money
Freshpet makes money primarily by selling fresh, refrigerated pet food products to retailers and other channel partners, who then sell those products to end consumers. Revenue is largely generated from product sales across its core Freshpet-brande...
Freshpet Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Retailer
Shows how much revenue comes from each retailer and how concentrated sales are among a few chains. High concentration in one or two retailers increases risk if stocking, pricing, or promotional support changes, while diversified retail distribution supports steadier growth and better negotiating power. Also reveals whether revenue gains are driven by new store listings, higher sales per store, or discounting, giving insight into the durability of Freshpet’s growth and margins.
Shows how much revenue comes from each retailer and how concentrated sales are among a few chains. High concentration in one or two retailers increases risk if stocking, pricing, or promotional support changes, while diversified retail distribution supports steadier growth and better negotiating power. Also reveals whether revenue gains are driven by new store listings, higher sales per store, or discounting, giving insight into the durability of Freshpet’s growth and margins.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFreshpet Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational and financial achievements—exceeding $1 billion in sales, improved gross margins and EBITDA growth, positive free cash flow, ecommerce/omnichannel momentum, and a breakthrough manufacturing line—while acknowledging a meaningful slowdown in growth vs. 2024, ongoing commodity cost pressure (notably beef), elevated media/SG&A investment and competitive intensity. Management provided prudent 2026 guidance (7%–10% sales growth, $205M–$215M adjusted EBITDA), emphasized early-stage initiatives (fridge islands, DTC/omnichannel, new production technology) that could drive future upside, and stressed cautious execution given macro uncertainty.Positive Updates
Exceeded $1 Billion Net Sales Milestone
Fiscal 2025 net sales of $1,102,000,000, up 13% year over year, surpassing the $1,000,000,000 target set in 2020.
Negative Updates
Slowing Growth vs Prior Year
Net sales growth decelerated from 27% in fiscal 2024 to 13% in fiscal 2025, reflecting a dramatic slowdown in category growth and a tougher consumer environment.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Exceeded $1 Billion Net Sales Milestone
Fiscal 2025 net sales of $1,102,000,000, up 13% year over year, surpassing the $1,000,000,000 target set in 2020.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Freshpet guided 2026 net sales growth of 7–10% and adjusted EBITDA of $205–$215 million (about +5–10% year over year), with capital expenditures of roughly $150 million (and the option to add $20–$50 million more to accelerate new manufacturing technology or a larger fridge‑island rollout); management expects to be free cash‑flow positive in 2026, to improve adjusted gross margin ~50–100 basis points at the midpoint of the sales range, to keep media spend roughly in line with 2025 but front‑half weighted (Q1 the largest), to not add staffing in 2026 (relying on OEE gains), and the base plan excludes significant fridge‑island expansion—for 2027 the company targets at least 48% adjusted gross margin and a 20–22% adjusted EBITDA margin (roughly 20% with high single‑digit growth and ~22% with mid‑teens growth), assuming no material macro change.Freshpet Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.10B | 975.18M | 766.89M | 595.34M | 425.49M |
| Gross Profit | 425.20M | 395.96M | 250.87M | 186.03M | 162.15M |
| EBITDA | 171.76M | 133.40M | 41.10M | -15.72M | 5.82M |
| Net Income | 139.14M | 46.92M | -33.61M | -59.49M | -29.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.78B | 1.57B | 1.46B | 1.13B | 784.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 277.98M | 268.63M | 296.87M | 132.74M | 72.79M |
| Total Debt | 560.01M | 424.09M | 425.06M | 5.71M | 7.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 569.12M | 519.52M | 510.97M | 93.81M | 64.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.21B | 1.06B | 953.45M | 1.03B | 719.75M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.38M | -32.80M | -163.15M | -273.30M | -321.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 160.56M | 154.29M | 75.94M | -43.23M | 647.00K |
| Investing Cash Flow | -148.18M | -187.09M | -239.09M | -233.36M | -322.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.04M | 4.57M | 327.29M | 336.54M | 326.99M |
Freshpet Technical Analysis
Negative
60.10
Price Trends
72.42
Negative
65.80
Negative
63.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.62
Positive
27.21
Positive
21.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FRPT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 60.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.32, below the 50-day MA of 72.42, and below the 200-day MA of 63.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.21 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FRPT.
Freshpet Risk Analysis
Freshpet disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freshpet reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Freshpet Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $2.95B | 21.37 | 12.35% | ― | 16.34% | 177.51% | |
65 Neutral | $2.10B | 73.36 | 9.90% | ― | -2.23% | 57.16% | |
64 Neutral | $1.48B | 491.43 | 6.48% | 3.53% | 0.54% | -24.42% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.33B | 19.23 | 5.04% | ― | 8.98% | -26.29% | |
62 Neutral | $1.36B | 11.70 | 5.35% | 5.40% | 1.44% | 8.29% | |
61 Neutral | $10.17B | -3.86 | -21.55% | 4.45% | -0.66% | -326.55% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
FRPT
Freshpet
60.10
-26.55
-30.64%
CENT
Central Garden Pet
37.58
1.70
4.74%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
77.61
-48.84
-38.62%
SJM
JM Smucker
95.39
-16.81
-14.99%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
14.39
-19.66
-57.74%
NOMD
Nomad Foods
9.60
-9.21
-48.96%
Freshpet Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Freshpet Tops $1 Billion Sales With Strong 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
Freshpet reported strong fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 23, 2026, highlighted by net sales of $285.2 million for the quarter, up 8.6% year over year, and $1.1 billion for the full year, up 13%, marking the company’s fi...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Freshpet Appoints New CFO and Supply Chain Leader
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Freshpet announced a leadership reshuffle designed to bolster its finance and supply chain capabilities, appointing John O’Connor as Chief Financial Officer effective February 9, 2026, and Ana Lopez as Senior Vice Presid...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.