Freshpet (FRPT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.40B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 940.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 16.34%
• EPS Growth: 177.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,296
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 1.86
• Shares Outstanding: 48,808,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,285,211
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 940,461
• PEG Ratio: -0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.36
• P/FCF Ratio: -218.92
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.53
• 1Y Price Target: $69.71
• Price Target Upside: 0.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.20B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $77.00 ▲(10.47% Upside)

Freshpet's overall stock score reflects solid financial performance and positive technical indicators, tempered by valuation concerns and mixed earnings call sentiment. The company's growth prospects are promising, but potential overvaluation and competitive pressures warrant caution.

Positive Factors

Market Leadership

Dominant share in the gently cooked fresh segment provides structural shelf presence and brand recognition across retail channels. This category leadership supports pricing power, distributor support, and faster household adoption, creating a durable moat versus smaller entrants over the next several years.

Free Cash Flow Generation

Earlier-than-expected free cash flow conversion signals improving operational efficiency and funding capacity. Sustained FCF reduces reliance on external capital for capex and marketing, enabling reinvestment into production lines and margin-improving technology while supporting long-term growth execution.

Stable Margins & Profitability

Healthy gross margins and improving net margins reflect efficient production and cost control in a fresh product business. Persistent mid-to-high gross margins provide a buffer for reinvestment and marketing, making profitability sustainable even as the company scales distribution and absorbs incremental fixed costs.

Negative Factors

Slowing Revenue Growth

A durable slowdown in top-line growth pressures operating leverage and delays target margin expansion. If mid-teens volume growth is not reaccelerated, planned profitability and 2027 targets become harder to reach, potentially requiring higher marketing spend or price actions that compress long-term margins.

Intensifying Competition

New entrant activity and incumbent brand moves can erode shelf space and force promotional spending. Over time, heightened competition risks slower household penetration gains and margin pressure as Freshpet must defend premium positioning and invest more in marketing and innovation to retain share.

Cash Conversion & Rising Debt

Although operating cash flow is positive, sub-1 FCF conversion and growing debt reduce financial flexibility. Over the medium term this can constrain capex or strategic investments, increase interest exposure, and amplify risk if revenue growth slows or margin targets prove harder to attain.

Freshpet Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company sells its products under the Freshpet brand; and Dognation and Dog Joy labels through various classes of retail, including grocery, mass, club, pet specialty, and natural, as well as online. Freshpet, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Secaucus, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

Freshpet generates revenue primarily through the sale of its fresh pet food products. The company has established a strong presence in the pet food market, capitalizing on the growing trend of pet owners seeking healthier and more nutritious food options for their pets. Key revenue streams include direct sales through retail partners, online sales, and subscription services. Freshpet has formed significant partnerships with major grocery chains and pet retailers, which helps to expand its distribution footprint and brand visibility. Additionally, the company invests in marketing and promotional campaigns to drive consumer awareness and demand for its products, further contributing to its earnings.

Freshpet Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Freshpet demonstrates solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and improving profitability. The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position and manageable debt levels, while cash flow generation is on an upward trajectory. Continued focus on operational efficiency and cash flow management will be crucial for sustaining growth and financial health.

Income Statement

Freshpet has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM growth rate of 3.4% and a significant increase from previous years. The gross profit margin is stable at around 40%, indicating efficient production processes. However, the net profit margin has improved to 11.4% in the TTM, reflecting better cost management and profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, suggesting operational improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.42, indicating a conservative capital structure. Return on equity has improved to 11.3% in the TTM, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting financial stability. However, the increase in total debt over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Freshpet's operating cash flow has been positive and growing, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.03 in the TTM. Free cash flow has turned positive, with a growth rate of 28.2%, indicating improved cash generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, suggesting room for improvement in converting profits into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.08B	975.18M	766.89M	595.34M	425.49M	318.79M
Gross Profit	431.97M	395.96M	250.87M	186.03M	162.15M	132.91M
EBITDA	147.68M	133.40M	41.10M	-15.72M	5.82M	19.21M
Net Income	123.44M	46.92M	-33.61M	-59.49M	-29.70M	-3.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.75B	1.57B	1.46B	1.13B	784.41M	434.39M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	274.59M	268.63M	296.87M	132.74M	72.79M	67.25M
Total Debt	494.81M	424.09M	425.06M	5.71M	7.09M	8.40M
Total Liabilities	567.14M	519.52M	510.97M	93.81M	64.66M	40.22M
Stockholders Equity	1.18B	1.06B	953.45M	1.03B	719.75M	394.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	43.10M	-32.80M	-163.15M	-273.30M	-321.45M	-113.38M
Operating Cash Flow	155.82M	154.29M	75.94M	-43.23M	647.00K	21.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-153.40M	-187.09M	-239.09M	-233.36M	-322.10M	-162.46M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.43M	4.57M	327.29M	336.54M	326.99M	199.04M

Freshpet Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 69.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FRPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.89, above the 50-day MA of 62.53, and above the 200-day MA of 64.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FRPT.

Freshpet Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CENT	73 Outperform	$1.94B	13.25	10.38%	―	-2.23%	57.16%
SMPL	69 Neutral	$1.74B	20.92	5.17%	―	8.98%	-26.29%
JJSF	69 Neutral	$1.80B	27.97	6.82%	3.53%	0.54%	-24.42%
NOMD	67 Neutral	$1.86B	8.66	7.39%	5.40%	1.44%	8.29%
FRPT	66 Neutral	$3.40B	30.52	11.22%	―	16.34%	177.51%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SJM	49 Neutral	$11.19B	-9.34	-17.44%	4.45%	-0.66%	-326.55%

Freshpet Corporate Events

Freshpet Approves Retention Grant for COO Nicola Baty

On December 8, 2025, Freshpet, Inc.’s Board of Directors approved a 2025 Retention Grant for COO Nicola Baty, consisting of Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) to address decreased valuation of her initial equity package. The grant aims to reinforce retention, focus on long-term performance, and align leadership with shareholder interests, with vesting conditions tied to continued employment and company performance goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (FRPT) stock is a Hold with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freshpet stock, see the FRPT Stock Forecast page.

Freshpet Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

On November 3, 2025, Freshpet reported its third-quarter financial results, showcasing a 14% increase in net sales to $288.8 million compared to the previous year. The company achieved positive free cash flow and expects to maintain this trend throughout 2025, a year ahead of its initial projections. Despite a slight decrease in gross margin, Freshpet’s net income significantly rose due to a $77.9 million tax benefit and sustained profitability. The company has adjusted its 2025 guidance, lowering capital expenditure plans and revising sales growth expectations to reflect current market conditions. Freshpet remains optimistic about capturing future growth and increasing market share in the pet food industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (FRPT) stock is a Buy with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freshpet stock, see the FRPT Stock Forecast page.